Communication fault analysis method, apparatus, device, and medium

Abstract

The application relates to a communication fault analysis method and device, equipment and medium, and relates to the technical field of communication fault analysis, and comprises the following steps: calculating the temperature change of an optical fiber of OPGW based on a transient heat conduction model; calculating the total stress of the optical fiber of OPGW in the ice melting process based on a temperature-stress coupling model and in combination with mechanical stress and thermal stress of the OPGW; wherein the mechanical stress comprises ice shedding jump dynamic stress determined based on strain data; based on the temperature change of the optical fiber, the total stress of the optical fiber and the coupling effect thereof, a communication fault probability judgment model is constructed, the communication fault probability value of the OPGW in the ice melting process is calculated based on the communication fault probability judgment model, and the ice melting current is dynamically adjusted according to the communication fault probability value. The application can accurately predict the temperature and stress state of the optical fiber inside the OPGW, consider the temperature difference between the surface and the inside during ice melting, the dynamic impact during ice shedding and the mutual coupling influence of high temperature and stress, and early warning of the communication fault risk.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of communication fault analysis technology, specifically to a communication fault analysis method, apparatus, device, and medium. Background Technology

[0002] Fiber-optic composite overhead ground wires (OPGWs) serve dual functions as grounding wires and communication cables, making them an indispensable and crucial component of ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission lines. During icy and snowy winters, OPGWs are highly susceptible to icing, which can lead to line breaks or even tower collapses, severely threatening the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Currently, DC de-icing technology is an effective means of eliminating line icing. Its principle involves applying DC current to the OPGW to generate Joule heating, thereby melting the ice. However, improper operation or poor control during the DC de-icing process of UHV transmission line OPGWs can significantly and adversely affect the communication performance of the optical fibers inside the OPGW.

[0003] First, thermal effects can degrade or even permanently damage the transmission performance of optical fibers. Fiber transmission loss is extremely sensitive to temperature; the Joule heat generated during ice melting causes the internal temperature of the OPGW (Optical Plug-in Wire Gland) to rise, directly increasing the fiber attenuation coefficient. More importantly, due to heat transfer delays and structural differences, the actual internal temperature of the fiber is often much higher than the surface temperature of the OPGW. Judging solely by surface temperature easily underestimates the thermal stress the fiber experiences. When the temperature exceeds the tolerance range of the fiber coating material (such as acrylic resin) (e.g., 80°C), the coating undergoes thermal weight loss, accelerating the precipitation of volatile components and leading to aging and embrittlement of the coating. This not only causes permanent degradation of transmission performance or even signal interruption but also significantly shortens the overall lifespan of the optical fiber.

[0004] Secondly, mechanical effects can lead to microbending losses and even strand breakage. OPGW does not carry current during normal operation, and its icing is often more severe than that of conductors, with typically lower mechanical strength. The DC de-icing process generally involves four stages: heating, de-icing, de-icing, and heat accumulation, with the de-icing stage posing the highest risk. When ice falls off unevenly, the OPGW is subjected to a huge longitudinal tensile impact instantly, resulting in a violent vertical jump. This mechanical impact can cause severe strain in the OPGW, which is transmitted to the internal optical fibers, altering the refractive index distribution and causing optical signal leakage, forming microbending losses, and leading to a decrease in communication quality. In severe cases, it can cause strand breakage or even complete breakage of the OPGW, directly causing communication interruption and tower stress imbalance.

[0005] Finally, existing de-icing control systems lack precise sensing and balancing capabilities. OPGWs are typically deployed in complex environments such as high mountains and canyons, stretching for tens or even hundreds of kilometers, making manual inspections insufficient in terms of range and accuracy. Existing monitoring equipment has significant limitations: OTDRs (Optical Time Domain Reflectometers) can only detect faults after fiber optic interruptions, providing only post-event diagnosis and failing to offer pre-emptive warnings; while temperature sensors can only measure temperatures at preset discrete points, failing to reflect the continuous thermal state of the entire line. Therefore, existing de-icing control strategies largely rely on surface temperature monitoring or empirical threshold settings, unable to perceive the true internal state of the fiber in real time, making it difficult to achieve the optimal balance between de-icing efficiency and communication security.

[0006] In summary, how to predict the temperature and stress state of the optical fiber inside the OPGW in real time and accurately during the DC de-icing process, especially by fully considering the temperature difference between the surface and the interior during de-icing, the dynamic impact during de-icing, and the mutual coupling effect of high temperature and stress, so as to provide early warning of communication failure risks and automatically optimize the de-icing control strategy, is a technical problem that urgently needs to be solved in this field. Summary of the Invention

[0007] In view of this, this application provides a communication fault analysis method, apparatus, equipment and medium. The main purpose is to solve the technical problem of how to predict the temperature and stress state of the optical fiber inside the OPGW in real time and accurately, especially to fully consider the temperature difference between the surface and the interior during de-icing, the dynamic impact during de-icing, and the mutual coupling effect of high temperature and stress, so as to provide early warning of communication fault risks and automatically optimize the de-icing control strategy.

[0008] Firstly, this application provides a communication fault analysis method, including: A transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system is constructed. Based on the transient heat conduction model, the fiber temperature change of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated according to the material properties of each layer of the fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current. Temperature distribution and strain data along the line are acquired using a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor. A temperature-stress coupling model is constructed based on the temperature distribution and strain data. The total fiber stress of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model and the mechanical and thermal stresses of the OPGW. The mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on the strain data. Based on the optical fiber temperature change, the total stress of the optical fiber and its coupling effect, a communication failure probability judgment model is constructed to calculate the communication failure probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process. Based on the communication failure probability value, the de-icing current is dynamically adjusted to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model.

[0009] Secondly, this application provides a communication fault analysis device, comprising: The first construction module is used to construct a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. Based on the transient heat conduction model, the fiber temperature change of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated according to the material characteristics of each layer of the fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current. The calculation module is used to acquire temperature distribution and strain data along the line through a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor, and to construct a temperature-stress coupling model based on the temperature distribution and strain data. Based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model, the total fiber stress of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated in combination with the mechanical stress and thermal stress of the OPGW. The mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on the strain data. The second construction module is used to construct a communication failure probability judgment model based on the temperature change of the optical fiber, the total stress of the optical fiber and its coupling effect, so as to calculate the communication failure probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process based on the communication failure probability judgment model. An adjustment module is used to dynamically adjust the de-icing current based on the communication failure probability value, so as to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model.

[0010] Thirdly, this application provides an electronic device, including a storage medium, a processor, and a computer program stored on the storage medium and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the communication fault analysis method described in the first aspect.

[0011] Fourthly, this application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the communication fault analysis method described in the first aspect.

[0012] By employing the above technical solutions, this application provides a communication fault analysis method, apparatus, equipment, and medium. Compared with existing technologies, this application can construct a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. Based on the transient heat conduction model, and according to the material characteristics of each layer of the optical fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current, the fiber temperature change during the de-icing process is calculated. Temperature distribution and strain data along the line are acquired using a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor, and a temperature-stress coupling model is constructed based on the temperature distribution and strain data. Based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model, the total fiber stress during the de-icing process is calculated by combining the mechanical and thermal stresses of the OPGW. The mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on strain data. A communication fault probability judgment model is constructed based on the fiber temperature change, total fiber stress, and their coupling effect. The communication fault probability value during the de-icing process is calculated based on the communication fault probability judgment model. The de-icing current is dynamically adjusted according to the communication fault probability value to reduce the communication fault probability of the communication fault probability judgment model.

[0013] By adopting the above technical solution, this application establishes a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. This modeling method fully considers the complex structure of OPGW, which is composed of multiple layers of different materials (such as aluminum-clad steel wire, stainless steel tube, optical fiber, etc.). Based on the physical properties of each layer of material and combined with the Joule heating generated by the de-icing current, this model can dynamically calculate the process of heat transfer from the outer layer to the inner layer, effectively solving the problem of temperature difference between the surface and the interior during de-icing, and thus accurately calculating the real-time temperature change of the internal optical fiber throughout the entire de-icing process.

[0014] This application utilizes Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry (BOTDR) sensors to perform distributed measurements along the OPGW (Optically Pluggable Wind Tunnel) line, acquiring real-time temperature distribution and strain (deformation) data for the entire line. Based on the sensor data, a temperature-stress coupling model is constructed. This model not only calculates conventional thermal and mechanical stresses but also quantifies the dynamic stress of de-icing jumps—a special risk during the de-icing process (reflected through strain data). Finally, the system combines mechanical and thermal stresses to determine the total stress borne by the optical fiber during de-icing and de-icing, thereby accurately understanding the stress state of the optical fiber.

[0015] This application uses the calculated fiber temperature change, total fiber stress, and their coupling effects as inputs to construct a communication failure probability judgment model. This model can comprehensively evaluate the communication failure probability value under the combined effects of high temperature (which may lead to fiber coating aging or increased attenuation) and high stress (which may lead to fiber breakage or microbending loss), thereby issuing an early warning before the failure occurs.

[0016] This application forms a feedback closed loop based on the real-time calculated communication failure probability value, dynamically adjusting the magnitude of the de-icing current. If the predicted failure probability is too high, the system will automatically reduce the current or adjust the de-icing rhythm to reduce the failure probability; while ensuring the de-icing effect, the risk of communication failure is controlled to the lowest level, achieving automatic balance and optimal control between de-icing efficiency and communication security.

[0017] The above description is only an overview of the technical solution of this application. In order to better understand the technical means of this application and to implement it in accordance with the contents of the specification, and to make the above and other objects, features and advantages of this application more obvious and understandable, the following are specific embodiments of this application. Attached Figure Description

[0018] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and form part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with this application and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of this application.

[0019] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0020] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating a communication fault analysis method provided in an embodiment of this application; Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of a communication fault analysis device provided in an embodiment of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0021] The following description, in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, illustrates exemplary embodiments of this application, including various details to aid understanding. These should be considered merely exemplary. Therefore, those skilled in the art will recognize that various changes and modifications can be made to the embodiments described herein without departing from the scope and spirit of this application. Similarly, for clarity and brevity, descriptions of well-known functions and structures are omitted in the following description. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described herein can be combined with each other.

[0022] The following description, with reference to the accompanying drawings, describes a communication fault analysis method, apparatus, device, and medium according to embodiments of this application.

[0023] This application provides a communication fault analysis method, apparatus, equipment, and medium. The main purpose is to solve the technical problem of how to predict the temperature and stress state of the optical fiber inside the OPGW in real time and accurately, especially to fully consider the temperature difference between the surface and the interior during de-icing, the dynamic impact during de-icing, and the mutual coupling effect of high temperature and stress, so as to provide early warning of communication fault risks and automatically optimize the de-icing control strategy.

[0024] like Figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of this application provides a communication fault analysis method, including: Step 101: Construct a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. Based on the transient heat conduction model, calculate the fiber temperature change of OPGW during the de-icing process according to the material characteristics of each layer of the fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current.

[0025] In this embodiment, since the OPGW is composed of various materials with different thermal conductivity, when current passes through the outer conductor and generates heat, the heat transfer from the outer layer to the inner layer takes time, resulting in a hierarchical difference between the surface temperature and the internal temperature. Therefore, a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system is constructed. This model treats the OPGW as a concentric cylindrical multilayer tube, with each layer having its own material properties. Heat is transferred from the outside to the inside layer to obtain the temperature change of the central optical fiber. Specifically, it may include: OPGW is discretized from the outside to the inside into an aluminum-clad steel wire layer, an aluminum alloy wire layer, a gap-filling layer, a stainless steel loose tube layer, and a fiber optic paste and fiber layer. Unsteady-state heat conduction equations containing temperature change terms, heat conduction terms, and heat source terms are established for each layer. Based on the unsteady-state heat conduction equations, a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system is established. The unsteady-state heat conduction equation can be used to characterize the process of heat transfer from the outer layer to the inner layer and the heat generated by electric current. The expression of the unsteady-state heat conduction equation is as follows:

[0026] In the formula, This is the temperature change term, which represents the increase in total heat. Specific heat capacity at constant pressure represents a material's ability to store heat. The density of each layer of OPGW material, Let be the partial derivative of temperature with respect to time, representing the rate of change of temperature at a point with time, i.e., the rate of temperature increase. For temperature, For time, This is a heat conduction term, used to characterize how heat is conducted from a high-temperature region to a low-temperature region, resulting in a net inflow of heat. The coordinates are radial, representing the distance of this layer from the central axis of the OPGW. Thermal conductivity represents a material's ability to conduct heat. The temperature gradient represents the rate of change of temperature along the radial direction. The heat flux change rate characterizes the net inflow / outflow of heat in this layer. The product of heat flux density and radius represents the total heat flow through the cylindrical surface. This is a heat source term, used to characterize the process where resistance converts electrical energy into heat energy when current flows through a conductor, causing a local temperature increase and resulting in the generation of heat within the conductor itself. Volumetric heat source intensity represents the heat generated per unit volume per unit time.

[0027] Furthermore, when dealing with the special boundary conditions of ice melting, the most complex aspect of the melting process is the change in the ice layer. Ice needs to absorb a large amount of heat (i.e., latent heat of phase change) to change from a solid to a liquid state, and the ice layer thickness decreases over time. Therefore, a Stefan condition is introduced at the interface between the OPGW surface and the ice layer in the transient heat conduction model to characterize the balance between the heat flow difference across the ice layer and the heat consumed by the ice melting, thus handling the boundary conditions of ice melting. The Stefan condition is expressed as follows:

[0028] In the formula, The thermal conductivity of ice, This represents the temperature gradient along the ice layer, i.e., the rate of change of temperature within the ice layer along the normal direction at the ice-air interface. The thermal conductivity of air, For the air-side temperature gradient, at the ice-air interface, is the rate of change of air temperature along the normal direction. The density of ice, This refers to the latent heat of fusion of ice, which is the amount of heat required to melt a unit mass of ice into water. This represents the rate of change in ice thickness.

[0029] The left side represents the heat flow difference between the two sides of the ice layer, and the right side represents the heat consumed by the melting of the ice layer.

[0030] Compared to the traditional method of directly measuring the surface temperature of a preset point on the OPGW optical cable and then inferring the fiber temperature based on experience, the above-mentioned layered temperature model can more accurately predict temperature change trends in advance, solving the problem of underestimating fiber temperature in the traditional uniform temperature model. This provides accurate temperature input for subsequent temperature-stress coupling models and communication fault prediction.

[0031] Step 102: Obtain temperature distribution and strain data along the line using a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor, and construct a temperature-stress coupling model based on the temperature distribution and strain data. Based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model, calculate the total fiber stress of the OPGW during the de-icing process by combining the mechanical stress and thermal stress of the OPGW. Among them, the mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on the strain data.

[0032] The total stress of the optical fiber may include mechanical stress caused by ice weight, self-weight, and tension, thermal stress, and dynamic stress caused by ice removal jumps and vibration impacts.

[0033] In this embodiment, a temperature-stress coupling model can be established. Increased temperature not only affects the fiber coating but also causes the metal material to expand. Since the OPGW is fixed to the tower at both ends with a relatively constant length, increased temperature will generate thermal stress; simultaneously, the weight of the icing will generate mechanical stress. These two stresses are superimposed.

[0034] The total stress of an optical fiber is calculated based on the elastic modulus, mechanical strain, coefficient of thermal expansion, and temperature rise. It is the superposition of the mechanical stress caused by external mechanical loads and the thermal stress caused by temperature changes. The formula for calculating the total stress of an optical fiber is as follows:

[0035] In the formula, This represents the total stress in the optical fiber. For elastic modulus, For mechanical strain, Mechanical stress, that is, stress caused by external mechanical loads. Thermal stress refers to the stress caused by thermal expansion and contraction due to temperature changes. The coefficient of thermal expansion is This is the temperature rise value.

[0036] The linear relationship between Brillouin frequency shift and temperature and strain can be detected by using a Brillouin optical time domain reflectance sensor (BOTDR), and temperature distribution and strain data along the line can be obtained simultaneously.

[0037] Strain anomalies are detected by de-icing identification signals to identify de-icing events, and the mechanical impact of de-icing jump impact on OPGW is quantified and defined as dynamic stress. Dynamic stress The calculation formula is:

[0038] In the formula, For dynamic stress, For direct dynamic stress, It is an indirect dynamic stress.

[0039] During the melting process, the ice-breaking impact has a significant mechanical effect on OPGW. Therefore, the dynamic stress of ice-breaking in mechanical stress includes direct dynamic stress based on strain data, indirect dynamic stress based on acceleration data, and static stress amplified by introducing a static stress dynamic amplification factor. The direct dynamic stress is calculated using the equivalent elastic modulus of the OPGW and the peak strain measured by the Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor. The formula for calculating the direct dynamic stress is as follows:

[0040] In the formula, For direct dynamic stress, The equivalent elastic modulus of OPGW, Peak strain measured by a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor; Indirect dynamic stress is calculated using dynamic impact force, OPGW cross-sectional area, and stress transfer coefficient. The formula for calculating indirect dynamic stress is:

[0041]

[0042] In the formula, For dynamic impact force, To achieve equivalent participation quality (60-80% of the total OPGW mass between spans can be taken based on empirical data). Peak acceleration, For indirect dynamic stress, For the cross-sectional area of ​​OPGW, The stress transfer coefficient; Actual dynamic stress also needs to consider dynamic effects, that is, static stress will be amplified under dynamic impact. The dynamic amplification of static stress is achieved by introducing a static stress dynamic amplification factor to amplify the sum of static mechanical stress and thermal stress, and by combining the instantaneous peak impact stress components of direct and indirect dynamic stresses to obtain the peak dynamic stress. The formula for calculating the peak dynamic stress is:

[0043] In the formula, This represents the peak dynamic stress. It is static mechanical stress. For thermal stress, i.e., in the temperature-stress coupling model formula , This is the dynamic amplification factor for static stress. The impact stress component is the dynamic stress formed by the instantaneous peak value of the sum of direct and indirect dynamic stresses.

[0044] Therefore, the total mechanical stress is the stress value calculated using the above direct dynamic stress formula, indirect dynamic stress formula, and static stress dynamic amplification formula, and is used as the input value for the dynamic stress parameter.

[0045] A comprehensive analysis using the aforementioned temperature-stress-impact hybrid model can accurately quantify the peak dynamic stress caused by extreme conditions such as de-icing jumps to the OPGW.

[0046] Step 103: Based on the optical fiber temperature change, total optical fiber stress and its coupling effect, construct a communication failure probability judgment model, and calculate the communication failure probability value of OPGW during the ice melting process based on the communication failure probability judgment model.

[0047] In this embodiment, the fiber coating (such as acrylic resin) undergoes thermal weight loss and cross-linking degradation at high temperatures, leading to embrittlement and cracking, thus losing its protective function for the fiber. Simultaneously, the high-temperature deterioration of the fiber grease produces harmful substances such as hydrogen gas, which corrodes the fiber surface and increases attenuation. The higher the temperature and the longer the duration, the more severe the cumulative damage.

[0048] When OPGW is subjected to stress, the internal optical fibers undergo minute bending (microbending), altering the refractive index distribution and leading to optical signal leakage (microbending loss). When the stress exceeds a threshold, it may cause fiber breakage or OPGW strand breakage. Taking into account temperature, stress, and their coupling effects, a fault probability calculation formula is constructed, including temperature terms, stress terms, and coupling terms of the combined effect of temperature and stress, to calculate the communication fault probability value of OPGW during the ice melting process. Among them, the temperature term is determined based on the internal fiber temperature calculated by the transient heat conduction model, the temperature threshold characterizing the lower limit of the fiber coating's tolerance temperature, and temperature-sensitive parameters; The stress term is determined based on the total stress calculated by the temperature-stress coupling model, the allowable stress threshold of OPGW, and the stress-sensitive parameters; The coupling term is a normalized characterization of the synergistic effect of the temperature and stress terms through the coupling coefficient, reference temperature, and reference stress. The formula for calculating the probability of communication failure is:

[0049] In the formula, This represents the probability value of communication failure. The internal fiber temperature is calculated using a transient heat conduction model. To characterize the temperature threshold that the optical fiber coating can withstand the lowest temperature, It is a temperature-sensitive parameter. The total stress is calculated using the temperature-stress coupling model. The allowable stress threshold for OPGW, For stress-sensitive parameters, This is a temperature shape parameter that controls the steepness of the temperature term. The stress shape parameter controls the steepness of the stress term. The coupling coefficient between temperature and stress is the synergistic effect of temperature and stress. The reference temperature used for normalizing the coupling term. This is the reference stress used for normalizing the coupling term.

[0050] The distribution of this model can describe the cumulative effect of fault risk under the coupling of multiple factors, and obtain the communication failure probability of OPGW during the ice melting process. When both temperature and stress are low, the failure probability is close to 0; when either parameter approaches or exceeds the threshold, the failure probability rises rapidly; when both are high, the coupling term further amplifies the risk. This enables a quantitative assessment of communication risk.

[0051] Step 104: Based on the communication failure probability value, dynamically adjust the de-icing current to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model.

[0052] In this embodiment of the application, the de-icing current is dynamically adjusted based on the communication failure probability value to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model. Specifically, this may include: Risk levels are classified based on the calculated probability values ​​of communication failures. These risk levels may include normal level, attention level, warning level, and danger level. Preferably, when the communication failure probability value for A value less than 0.1 is considered normal; when the communication failure probability value... 0.1≤ A value less than 0.3 indicates a warning level; when the probability of communication failure is less than 0.3, the warning level is considered high. 0.3≤ A value less than 0.6 indicates a warning level; when the communication failure probability value is less than 0.6, the warning level is indicated. for A value ≥0.6 indicates a dangerous level.

[0053] When the risk level of the communication failure probability value is the attention level, warning level, or danger level, the de-icing current is dynamically corrected and adjusted until the communication failure probability value is reduced to the normal level, so as to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model.

[0054] Before or in the early stages of de-icing, an optimal de-icing current curve is generated based on the original constraint data and weather forecast data in the model to minimize de-icing time or energy consumption while meeting communication safety constraints. During de-icing, when the risk level of the communication failure probability value is at the attention level, warning level, or danger level, the de-icing current is dynamically corrected and adjusted (e.g., appropriately reducing the de-icing current or adjusting the de-icing time) based on the real-time temperature distribution and strain data monitored by the Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor, as well as the deviation between the failure probability value calculated by the communication failure probability judgment model and the model prediction (e.g., through the deviation between the measured surface temperature and the model prediction), until the communication failure probability value is reduced to the normal risk level. This reduces the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model, thereby optimizing de-icing efficiency while ensuring communication safety.

[0055] Through the above steps, this application solves the problem of underestimation of optical fiber temperature by the traditional uniform temperature model by using a layered temperature model, achieves a quantitative assessment of communication risks by using a temperature-stress-impact hybrid model for comprehensive analysis, and realizes fault location of the entire line by using BOTDR distributed monitoring. It can dynamically optimize de-icing parameters and efficiency while ensuring communication security.

[0056] In summary, according to the communication fault analysis method provided in this application, compared with the existing technology, this application can construct a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. Based on the transient heat conduction model, and according to the material characteristics of each layer of the optical fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current, the fiber temperature change of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated. Temperature distribution and strain data along the line are obtained through a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor, and a temperature-stress coupling model is constructed based on the temperature distribution and strain data. Based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model, the total fiber stress of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated in combination with the mechanical stress and thermal stress of the OPGW. The mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on the strain data. Based on the fiber temperature change, the total fiber stress, and their coupling effect, a communication fault probability judgment model is constructed. The communication fault probability value of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated based on the communication fault probability judgment model. Based on the communication fault probability value, the de-icing current is dynamically adjusted to reduce the communication fault probability of the communication fault probability judgment model.

[0057] By adopting the above technical solution, this application establishes a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. This modeling method fully considers the complex structure of OPGW, which is composed of multiple layers of different materials (such as aluminum-clad steel wire, stainless steel tube, optical fiber, etc.). Based on the physical properties of each layer of material and combined with the Joule heating generated by the de-icing current, this model can dynamically calculate the process of heat transfer from the outer layer to the inner layer, effectively solving the problem of temperature difference between the surface and the interior during de-icing, and thus accurately calculating the real-time temperature change of the internal optical fiber throughout the entire de-icing process.

[0058] This application utilizes Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry (BOTDR) sensors to perform distributed measurements along the OPGW (Optically Pluggable Wind Tunnel) line, acquiring real-time temperature distribution and strain (deformation) data for the entire line. Based on the sensor data, a temperature-stress coupling model is constructed. This model not only calculates conventional thermal and mechanical stresses but also quantifies the dynamic stress of de-icing jumps—a special risk during the de-icing process (reflected through strain data). Finally, the system combines mechanical and thermal stresses to determine the total stress borne by the optical fiber during de-icing and de-icing, thereby accurately understanding the stress state of the optical fiber.

[0059] This application uses the calculated fiber temperature change, total fiber stress, and their coupling effects as inputs to construct a communication failure probability judgment model. This model can comprehensively evaluate the communication failure probability value under the combined effects of high temperature (which may lead to fiber coating aging or increased attenuation) and high stress (which may lead to fiber breakage or microbending loss), thereby issuing an early warning before the failure occurs.

[0060] This application forms a feedback closed loop based on the real-time calculated communication failure probability value, dynamically adjusting the magnitude of the de-icing current. If the predicted failure probability is too high, the system will automatically reduce the current or adjust the de-icing rhythm to reduce the failure probability; while ensuring the de-icing effect, the risk of communication failure is controlled to the lowest level, achieving automatic balance and optimal control between de-icing efficiency and communication security.

[0061] Based on the above Figure 1 The specific implementation of the method shown in this embodiment provides a communication fault analysis device, such as... Figure 2 As shown, the device includes: a first construction module 31, a calculation module 32, a second construction module 33, and an adjustment module 34; The first construction module 31 is used to construct a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. Based on the transient heat conduction model, the fiber temperature change of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated according to the material characteristics of each layer of the fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current. The calculation module 32 is used to acquire temperature distribution and strain data along the line through a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor, and to construct a temperature-stress coupling model based on the temperature distribution and strain data. Based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model, the total fiber stress of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated in combination with the mechanical stress and thermal stress of the OPGW. The mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on the strain data. The second construction module 33 is used to construct a communication failure probability judgment model based on the optical fiber temperature change, the total stress of the optical fiber and its coupling effect, so as to calculate the communication failure probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process based on the communication failure probability judgment model. The adjustment module 34 is used to dynamically adjust the de-icing current according to the communication failure probability value, so as to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model.

[0062] In specific application scenarios, the first construction module 31 can be used to discretize the OPGW from the outside to the inside into an aluminum-clad steel wire layer, an aluminum alloy wire layer, a gap-filling layer, a stainless steel loose tube layer, a fiber paste and an optical fiber layer, and establish unsteady-state heat conduction equations for each layer, including temperature change terms, heat conduction terms and heat source terms, so as to establish a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system based on the unsteady-state heat conduction equations. The unsteady-state heat conduction equation is used to characterize the process of heat transfer from the outer layer to the inner layer and the heat generated by the electric current. The expression of the unsteady-state heat conduction equation is as follows:

[0063] In the formula, This is the temperature change term, which represents the increase in total heat. Specific heat capacity at constant pressure represents a material's ability to store heat. The density of each layer of OPGW material, Let be the partial derivative of temperature with respect to time, representing the rate of change of temperature at a point with time, i.e., the rate of temperature increase. For temperature, For time, This is a heat conduction term, used to characterize how heat is conducted from a high-temperature region to a low-temperature region, resulting in a net inflow of heat. The coordinates are radial, representing the distance of this layer from the central axis of the OPGW. Thermal conductivity represents a material's ability to conduct heat. The temperature gradient represents the rate of change of temperature along the radial direction. The heat flux change rate characterizes the net inflow / outflow of heat in this layer. The product of heat flux density and radius represents the total heat flow through the cylindrical surface. This is a heat source term, used to characterize the process where resistance converts electrical energy into heat energy when current flows through a conductor, causing a local temperature increase and resulting in the generation of heat within the conductor itself. Volumetric heat source intensity represents the heat generated per unit volume per unit time.

[0064] In specific application scenarios, the first construction module 31 can be used to introduce Stefan conditions at the interface between the OPGW surface and the ice layer in the transient heat conduction model. This condition characterizes the balance between the heat flow difference across the ice layer and the heat consumed by the melting of the ice layer, thus handling the boundary conditions for ice melting. The Stefan condition is expressed as follows:

[0065] In the formula, The thermal conductivity of ice, This represents the temperature gradient along the ice layer, i.e., the rate of change of temperature within the ice layer along the normal direction at the ice-air interface. The thermal conductivity of air, For the air-side temperature gradient, at the ice-air interface, is the rate of change of air temperature along the normal direction. The density of ice, This refers to the latent heat of fusion of ice, which is the amount of heat required to melt a unit mass of ice into water. This represents the rate of change in ice thickness.

[0066] In specific application scenarios, the calculation module 32 can be used to calculate the total stress of the optical fiber based on the elastic modulus, mechanical strain, coefficient of thermal expansion, and temperature rise, and to calculate the superposition value of the mechanical stress caused by external mechanical load and the thermal stress caused by temperature change. The formula for calculating the total stress of the optical fiber is:

[0067] In the formula, This represents the total stress in the optical fiber. For elastic modulus, For mechanical strain, Mechanical stress, For thermal stress, The coefficient of thermal expansion is This is the temperature rise value.

[0068] In specific application scenarios, the calculation module 32 can be used for the de-icing jump dynamic stress in the mechanical stress, including the direct dynamic stress based on the strain data, the indirect dynamic stress based on the acceleration data, and the static stress dynamic amplification stress with the introduction of the static stress dynamic amplification factor. The direct dynamic stress is calculated using the equivalent elastic modulus of the OPGW and the peak strain measured by the Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor. The formula for calculating the direct dynamic stress is as follows:

[0069] In the formula, For direct dynamic stress, The equivalent elastic modulus of OPGW, Peak strain measured by a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor; The indirect dynamic stress is calculated using dynamic impact force, OPGW cross-sectional area, and stress transfer coefficient. The formula for calculating the indirect dynamic stress is as follows:

[0070]

[0071] In the formula, For dynamic impact force, To achieve equivalent participation in quality, Peak acceleration, For indirect dynamic stress, For the cross-sectional area of ​​OPGW, The stress transfer coefficient; The static stress dynamic amplification stress is obtained by introducing a static stress dynamic amplification factor to amplify the sum of static mechanical stress and thermal stress, and by combining the instantaneous peak impact stress components of the direct dynamic stress and the indirect dynamic stress. The calculation formula for the dynamic stress peak value is as follows:

[0072] In the formula, This represents the peak dynamic stress. It is static mechanical stress. For thermal stress, i.e., in the temperature-stress coupling model formula , This is the dynamic amplification factor for static stress. The impact stress component is the dynamic stress formed by the instantaneous peak value of the sum of direct and indirect dynamic stresses.

[0073] In specific application scenarios, the second construction module 33 can be used to construct a fault probability calculation formula that includes temperature, stress, and coupling terms of temperature and stress synergy, so as to calculate the communication fault probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process based on the fault probability calculation formula. The temperature term is determined based on the internal fiber temperature calculated by the transient heat conduction model, the temperature threshold characterizing the lower limit of the fiber coating's tolerance temperature, and temperature-sensitive parameters. The stress term is determined based on the total stress calculated by the temperature-stress coupling model, the stress threshold allowed by OPGW, and the stress-sensitive parameters. The coupling term is a normalized characterization of the synergistic effect of the temperature and stress terms through the coupling coefficient, reference temperature, and reference stress. The formula for calculating the communication failure probability value is as follows:

[0074] In the formula, This represents the probability value of communication failure. The internal fiber temperature is calculated using a transient heat conduction model. To characterize the temperature threshold that the optical fiber coating can withstand the lowest temperature, It is a temperature-sensitive parameter. The total stress is calculated using the temperature-stress coupling model. The allowable stress threshold for OPGW, For stress-sensitive parameters, This is a temperature shape parameter that controls the steepness of the temperature term. The stress shape parameter controls the steepness of the stress term. The coupling coefficient between temperature and stress is the synergistic effect of temperature and stress. The reference temperature used for normalizing the coupling term. This is the reference stress used for normalizing the coupling term.

[0075] In specific application scenarios, the adjustment module 34 can be used to classify risk levels based on the calculated communication failure probability value. The risk levels include normal level, attention level, warning level and danger level. When the risk level of the communication failure probability value is the attention level, the warning level, or the danger level, the de-icing current is dynamically corrected and adjusted until the communication failure probability value is reduced to the normal level of the risk level, so as to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model.

[0076] It should be noted that other corresponding descriptions of the functional units involved in the communication fault analysis device provided in this embodiment can be found in [reference needed]. Figure 1 The corresponding description in [the document] will not be repeated here.

[0077] Based on the above, Figure 1Accordingly, this embodiment also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the above-described method. Figure 1 The method shown.

[0078] Based on this understanding, the technical solution of this application can be embodied in the form of a software product, which can be stored in a non-volatile storage medium (such as CD-ROM, USB flash drive, mobile hard drive, etc.) and includes several instructions to cause a computer device (such as personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute the methods of various implementation scenarios of this application.

[0079] Based on the above, Figure 1 The method shown, and Figure 2 To achieve the above objectives, the present application also provides an electronic device, comprising a storage medium and a processor; the storage medium for storing a computer program; and the processor for executing the computer program to implement the above-described virtual device embodiments. Figure 1 The method shown.

[0080] Optionally, the aforementioned physical devices may also include a user interface, a network interface, a camera, radio frequency (RF) circuitry, sensors, audio circuitry, a Wi-Fi module, etc. The user interface may include a display screen, input units such as a keyboard, etc., and optional user interfaces may also include USB interfaces, card reader interfaces, etc. The network interface may optionally include standard wired interfaces, wireless interfaces (such as Wi-Fi interfaces), etc.

[0081] Those skilled in the art will understand that the physical device structure provided in this embodiment does not constitute a limitation on the physical device, and may include more or fewer components, or combine certain components, or have different component arrangements.

[0082] The storage medium may also include an operating system and a network communication module. The operating system is a program that manages the hardware and software resources of the aforementioned physical device, supporting the operation of the communication fault analysis program and other software and / or programs. The network communication module is used to enable communication between the various components within the storage medium, as well as communication with other hardware and software in the communication fault analysis physical device.

[0083] Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that this application can be implemented by means of software plus necessary general-purpose hardware platforms, or it can be implemented by hardware. By applying the solution of this embodiment, compared with the existing technology, this application can construct a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. Based on the transient heat conduction model, according to the material characteristics of each layer of the optical fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current, the fiber temperature change of OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated. Temperature distribution and strain data along the line are obtained through a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor, and a temperature-stress coupling model is constructed based on the temperature distribution and strain data. Based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model, the total fiber stress of OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated in combination with the mechanical stress and thermal stress of OPGW. Among them, mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on strain data. Based on the fiber temperature change, the total fiber stress and their coupling effect, a communication failure probability judgment model is constructed. The communication failure probability value of OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated based on the communication failure probability judgment model. According to the communication failure probability value, the de-icing current is dynamically adjusted to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model.

[0084] By adopting the above technical solution, this application establishes a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. This modeling method fully considers the complex structure of OPGW, which is composed of multiple layers of different materials (such as aluminum-clad steel wire, stainless steel tube, optical fiber, etc.). Based on the physical properties of each layer of material and combined with the Joule heating generated by the de-icing current, this model can dynamically calculate the process of heat transfer from the outer layer to the inner layer, effectively solving the problem of temperature difference between the surface and the interior during de-icing, and thus accurately calculating the real-time temperature change of the internal optical fiber throughout the entire de-icing process.

[0085] This application utilizes Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry (BOTDR) sensors to perform distributed measurements along the OPGW (Optically Pluggable Wind Tunnel) line, acquiring real-time temperature distribution and strain (deformation) data for the entire line. Based on the sensor data, a temperature-stress coupling model is constructed. This model not only calculates conventional thermal and mechanical stresses but also quantifies the dynamic stress of de-icing jumps—a special risk during the de-icing process (reflected through strain data). Finally, the system combines mechanical and thermal stresses to determine the total stress borne by the optical fiber during de-icing and de-icing, thereby accurately understanding the stress state of the optical fiber.

[0086] This application uses the calculated fiber temperature change, total fiber stress, and their coupling effects as inputs to construct a communication failure probability judgment model. This model can comprehensively evaluate the communication failure probability value under the combined effects of high temperature (which may lead to fiber coating aging or increased attenuation) and high stress (which may lead to fiber breakage or microbending loss), thereby issuing an early warning before the failure occurs.

[0087] This application forms a feedback closed loop based on the real-time calculated communication failure probability value, dynamically adjusting the magnitude of the de-icing current. If the predicted failure probability is too high, the system will automatically reduce the current or adjust the de-icing rhythm to reduce the failure probability; while ensuring the de-icing effect, the risk of communication failure is controlled to the lowest level, achieving automatic balance and optimal control between de-icing efficiency and communication security.

[0088] It should be noted that, in this document, relational terms such as "first" and "second" are used merely to distinguish one entity or operation from another, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Furthermore, the term "comprising" or any other variations thereof is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent to such a process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitations, an element defined by the phrase "comprising one..." does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article, or apparatus that includes the element.

[0089] The above are merely specific embodiments of this application, enabling those skilled in the art to understand or implement this application. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of this application. Therefore, this application is not to be limited to these embodiments, but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features claimed herein.

Claims

1. A communication fault analysis method, characterized in that, include: A transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system is constructed. Based on the transient heat conduction model, the fiber temperature change of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated according to the material properties of each layer of the fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current. Temperature distribution and strain data along the line are acquired using a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor. A temperature-stress coupling model is constructed based on the temperature distribution and strain data. The total fiber stress of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model and the mechanical and thermal stresses of the OPGW. The mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on the strain data. Based on the optical fiber temperature change, the total stress of the optical fiber and its coupling effect, a communication failure probability judgment model is constructed to calculate the communication failure probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process. Based on the communication failure probability value, the de-icing current is dynamically adjusted to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model. The calculation of the communication failure probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process based on the communication failure probability judgment model specifically includes: A fault probability calculation formula is constructed, which includes a temperature term, a stress term, and a coupling term of the synergistic effect of temperature and stress, so as to calculate the communication fault probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process based on the fault probability calculation formula. The temperature term is determined based on the internal fiber temperature calculated by the transient heat conduction model, the temperature threshold characterizing the lower limit of the fiber coating's tolerance temperature, and temperature-sensitive parameters. The stress term is determined based on the total stress calculated by the temperature-stress coupling model, the stress threshold allowed by OPGW, and the stress-sensitive parameters. The coupling term is a normalized characterization of the synergistic effect of the temperature and stress terms through the coupling coefficient, reference temperature, and reference stress. The formula for calculating the communication failure probability value is as follows: In the formula, This represents the probability value of communication failure. The internal fiber temperature is calculated using a transient heat conduction model. To characterize the temperature threshold that the optical fiber coating can withstand the lowest temperature, It is a temperature-sensitive parameter. The total stress is calculated using the temperature-stress coupling model. The allowable stress threshold for OPGW, For stress-sensitive parameters, This is a temperature shape parameter that controls the steepness of the temperature term. The stress shape parameter controls the steepness of the stress term. The coupling coefficient between temperature and stress is the synergistic effect of temperature and stress. The reference temperature used for normalizing the coupling term. This is the reference stress used for normalizing the coupling term.

2. The communication fault analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The construction of the transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system specifically includes: The OPGW is discretized from the outside to the inside into an aluminum-clad steel wire layer, an aluminum alloy wire layer, a gap-filling layer, a stainless steel loose tube layer, a fiber grease and an optical fiber layer, and an unsteady-state heat conduction equation including temperature change term, heat conduction term and heat source term is established for each layer, so as to establish a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system based on the unsteady heat conduction equation. The unsteady-state heat conduction equation is used to characterize the process of heat transfer from the outer layer to the inner layer and the heat generated by the electric current. The expression of the unsteady-state heat conduction equation is as follows: In the formula, This is the temperature change term, which represents the increase in total heat. Specific heat capacity at constant pressure represents a material's ability to store heat. The density of each layer of OPGW material, Let be the partial derivative of temperature with respect to time, representing the rate of change of temperature at a point with time, i.e., the rate of temperature increase. For temperature, For time, This is a heat conduction term, used to characterize how heat is conducted from a high-temperature region to a low-temperature region, resulting in a net inflow of heat. The coordinates are radial, representing the distance of this layer from the central axis of the OPGW. Thermal conductivity represents a material's ability to conduct heat. The temperature gradient represents the rate of change of temperature along the radial direction. The heat flux change rate characterizes the net inflow / outflow of heat in this layer. The product of heat flux density and radius represents the total heat flow through the cylindrical surface. This is a heat source term, used to characterize the process where resistance converts electrical energy into heat energy when current flows through a conductor, causing a local temperature increase and resulting in the generation of heat within the conductor itself. Volumetric heat source intensity represents the heat generated per unit volume per unit time.

3. The communication fault analysis method according to claim 2, characterized in that, In the transient heat conduction model, a Stefan condition is introduced at the interface between the OPGW surface and the ice layer to characterize the balance between the heat flow difference across the ice layer and the heat consumed by ice melting, thus handling the boundary conditions of ice melting. The Stefan condition is expressed by the following formula: In the formula, The thermal conductivity of ice, This represents the temperature gradient along the ice layer, i.e., the rate of change of temperature within the ice layer along the normal direction at the ice-air interface. The thermal conductivity of air, For the air-side temperature gradient, at the ice-air interface, is the rate of change of air temperature along the normal direction. The density of ice, This refers to the latent heat of fusion of ice, which is the amount of heat required to melt a unit mass of ice into water. This represents the rate of change in ice thickness.

4. The communication fault analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The total stress of the optical fiber is calculated based on the elastic modulus, mechanical strain, coefficient of thermal expansion, and temperature rise, as the superposition of mechanical stress caused by external mechanical load and thermal stress caused by temperature change. The formula for calculating the total stress of the optical fiber is as follows: In the formula, This represents the total stress in the optical fiber. For elastic modulus, For mechanical strain, Mechanical stress, For thermal stress, The coefficient of thermal expansion is... This is the temperature rise value.

5. The communication fault analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The de-icing jump dynamic stress in the mechanical stress includes direct dynamic stress based on the strain data, indirect dynamic stress based on acceleration data, and static stress dynamic amplification stress with the introduction of a static stress dynamic amplification factor. The direct dynamic stress is calculated using the equivalent elastic modulus of the OPGW and the peak strain measured by the Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor. The formula for calculating the direct dynamic stress is as follows: In the formula, For direct dynamic stress, The equivalent elastic modulus of OPGW, Peak strain measured by a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor; The indirect dynamic stress is calculated using dynamic impact force, OPGW cross-sectional area, and stress transfer coefficient. The formula for calculating the indirect dynamic stress is as follows: In the formula, For dynamic impact force, To achieve equivalent participation in quality, Peak acceleration, For indirect dynamic stress, For the cross-sectional area of ​​OPGW, The stress transfer coefficient; The static stress dynamic amplification stress is obtained by introducing a static stress dynamic amplification factor to amplify the sum of static mechanical stress and thermal stress, and by combining the instantaneous peak impact stress components of the direct dynamic stress and the indirect dynamic stress. The calculation formula for the dynamic stress peak value is as follows: In the formula, This represents the peak dynamic stress. It is static mechanical stress. For thermal stress, This is the dynamic amplification factor for static stress. The impact stress component is the dynamic stress formed by the instantaneous peak value of the sum of direct and indirect dynamic stresses.

6. The communication fault analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of dynamically adjusting the de-icing current based on the communication failure probability value to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model specifically includes: Risk levels are classified based on the calculated communication failure probability values, including normal level, attention level, warning level, and danger level. When the risk level of the communication failure probability value is the attention level, the warning level, or the danger level, the de-icing current is dynamically corrected and adjusted until the communication failure probability value is reduced to the normal level of the risk level, so as to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model.

7. A communication fault analysis device, characterized in that, include: The first construction module is used to construct a transient heat conduction model in a layered cylindrical coordinate system. Based on the transient heat conduction model, the fiber temperature change of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated according to the material characteristics of each layer of the fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) and the heat generated by the current. The calculation module is used to acquire temperature distribution and strain data along the line through a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry sensor, and to construct a temperature-stress coupling model based on the temperature distribution and strain data. Based on the constructed temperature-stress coupling model, the total fiber stress of the OPGW during the de-icing process is calculated in combination with the mechanical stress and thermal stress of the OPGW. The mechanical stress includes the de-icing jump dynamic stress determined based on the strain data. The second construction module is used to construct a communication failure probability judgment model based on the temperature change of the optical fiber, the total stress of the optical fiber and its coupling effect, so as to calculate the communication failure probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process based on the communication failure probability judgment model. An adjustment module is used to dynamically adjust the de-icing current based on the communication failure probability value, so as to reduce the communication failure probability of the communication failure probability judgment model. The second construction module is used to construct a failure probability calculation formula that includes a temperature term, a stress term, and a coupling term of the synergistic effect of temperature and stress, so as to calculate the communication failure probability value of the OPGW during the ice melting process based on the failure probability calculation formula. The temperature term is determined based on the internal fiber temperature calculated by the transient heat conduction model, the temperature threshold characterizing the lower limit of the fiber coating's tolerance temperature, and temperature-sensitive parameters. The stress term is determined based on the total stress calculated by the temperature-stress coupling model, the stress threshold allowed by OPGW, and the stress-sensitive parameters. The coupling term is a normalized characterization of the synergistic effect of the temperature and stress terms through the coupling coefficient, reference temperature, and reference stress. The formula for calculating the communication failure probability value is as follows: In the formula, This represents the probability value of communication failure. The internal fiber temperature is calculated using a transient heat conduction model. To characterize the temperature threshold that the optical fiber coating can withstand the lowest temperature, It is a temperature-sensitive parameter. The total stress is calculated using the temperature-stress coupling model. The allowable stress threshold for OPGW, For stress-sensitive parameters, This is a temperature shape parameter that controls the steepness of the temperature term. The stress shape parameter controls the steepness of the stress term. The coupling coefficient between temperature and stress is the synergistic effect of temperature and stress. The reference temperature used for normalizing the coupling term. This is the reference stress used for normalizing the coupling term.

8. An electronic device comprising a storage medium, a processor, and a computer program stored on the storage medium and executable on the processor, characterized in that, When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the communication fault analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the communication fault analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

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