A dynamic assessment method for dammed lake danger based on emergency measures

Abstract

This invention relates to the field of emergency management technology for landslide-dammed lake disasters, and particularly to a dynamic assessment method for the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures. It establishes a dynamic coupling model between emergency response measures and hazard factors to achieve dynamic correction of the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake. This invention overcomes the limitations of hazard level models constructed based on static natural parameters by: for the first time achieving dynamic coupling between emergency response measures and hazard factors of the landslide-dammed lake; quantifying the impact of artificial emergency response measures such as diversion channels, flexible protection projects, and reservoir scheduling on hazard factors such as reservoir capacity, inflow, material composition, and geometric shape; dynamically quantifying the reduction effect of emergency response measures on the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake; and addressing the deficiency of traditional assessment methods that ignore emergency response measures, thus providing a basis for accurately formulating emergency response plans. It clarifies the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake after emergency response measures are taken, directly supporting emergency decision-making. This invention has strong adaptability and is applicable to the assessment of all landslide-dammed lake hazards.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of emergency management technology for landslide dammed lake disasters, and in particular to a method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of landslide dammed lakes based on emergency rescue measures. Background Technology

[0002] A landslide-dammed lake is a lake formed when landslides or rockfalls caused by volcanic lava flows, glacial till, or earthquakes block valleys, riverbeds, or other natural disasters, causing water to accumulate. Most landslide-dammed lakes are secondary disasters accompanying natural disasters. The blocking material in a landslide-dammed lake is not permanent; it is subject to erosion, dissolution, and collapse. Once the water in a landslide-dammed lake reaches a certain level, the dam will breach, leading to major floods or mudslides, causing devastating damage to downstream areas. The danger of landslide-dammed lakes stems from the fragile balance between their unstable natural dam structure and the continuously accumulating energy of the lake water. Once this balance is broken, a breach can occur, creating a destructive flood peak.

[0003] Landslide dam hazard assessment is a crucial basis for emergency response decisions. Traditional methods primarily rely on static natural parameters (such as reservoir capacity, inflow, material composition, and geometry of the dammed body) to construct hazard level models. However, these models have the following shortcomings: they fail to quantify the dynamic impact of artificial emergency measures such as diversion channels, flexible protection works, and water engineering scheduling on hazard factors. For example, excavating diversion channels can directly weaken the breach energy and reduce the hazard of the landslide dam by lowering the effective height and reservoir capacity. Ignoring the dynamic assessment effect of these artificial emergency measures on the hazard of the landslide dam can easily lead to misjudgments of the hazard level, often misclassifying low-to-medium hazard levels as high hazard levels. This can result in the following decision-making errors: excessive and redundant economic losses from deploying emergency resources; and inaccurate evacuation routes downstream, leading to unnecessary population relocation.

[0004] Therefore, existing methods for assessing the risk of landslide-dammed lakes have the problem of misjudging the risk level of landslide-dammed lakes, resulting in excessive economic losses from the deployment of emergency rescue resources and inaccurate evacuation ranges for downstream personnel. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of this invention is to provide a dynamic assessment method for the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures, which can solve the technical problem of misjudging the hazard level of landslide-dammed lakes in existing landslide-dammed lake hazard assessment methods.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution: This invention designs a method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures, including the following steps: A dynamic coupling correlation model is constructed that integrates the emergency response measure factor set, the landslide dam hazard factor set, and the emergency response measure factors and landslide dam hazard factors, as well as an impact quantification subset.F ; Affected quantization operator set F Specifically, it includes 5 factors, namely: f 1 Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lake f 2 To quantify the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes, f 3 Quantification operators for the impact of reservoir operation measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes f 4 Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of landslide dammed lake f 5 To comprehensively influence the quantization operator; Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes f 1 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the influence of the diversion channel. α 1 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide-dammed lakes. f 2 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of flexible protection measures. α 2 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of reservoir scheduling measures on the danger of landslide-dammed lakes. f 3 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures. α 3 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of landslide dammed lakes. f 4 Quantitative parameters for calculating the influence of the geometry of the diversion channel α 4 ; Establish a comprehensive impact quantification operator f 5 Quantification parameters based on the influence of the drainage channel α 1 The impact of flexible protection measures on quantitative parameters α 2 Quantitative parameters affecting reservoir scheduling measures α 3 Quantitative parameters of the influence of the geometry of the drainage channel α 4 Determine the comprehensive impact factor α ; Based on comprehensive impact factors α， A dynamic assessment of the danger posed by the landslide dammed lake will be conducted after the implementation of emergency rescue measures.

[0007] As a preferred embodiment, the dynamic coupling and correlation model is as follows: In formula (1): I The emergency response measures factor set includes three factors: i 1 Measures for excavating diversion channels, i 2 Flexible protection measures for gabion-string slope protection i 3 Reservoir scheduling measures; D The set of risk factors for landslide-dammed lakes includes four factors: V For the total reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake, Q 来水量 For the upstream water volume of the landslide dammed lake, d The median particle size of the material composition of the landslide dam, H 堰塞体 The height of the landslide dam; F To influence the quantization subset, f 1 Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lake f 2 To quantify the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes, f 3 Quantification operators for the impact of reservoir operation measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes f 4 Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of landslide dammed lake f 5 To comprehensively influence the quantization operator.

[0008] As a preferred option, a quantitative operator is established to assess the impact of diversion channel measures on the hazard of the landslide dammed lake. f 1 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the influence of the diversion channel. α 1 The specific formula is as follows: In equation (2), Q 来水量 This refers to the water volume flowing from the upstream of the landslide dammed lake; n The roughness of the drainage channel is determined based on the material of the drainage channel. A This refers to the cross-sectional area of ​​the water passage. R The hydraulic radius; i The longitudinal slope of the diversion channel; B Width of the bottom plate of the drainage channel; m The slope ratio of the diversion channel section; h This is the water level equilibrium point; Z水位 This represents the height corresponding to the water level equilibrium point. Z 引流槽底板 Elevation of the bottom plate of the diversion channel; V 2 To determine the reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake after the diversion channel is installed; g It is the acceleration due to gravity; V 1 This represents the maximum capacity of the landslide-dammed lake without an irrigation channel. α 1 To quantify the influence of the diversion channel, α 1 ∈[0,1]; Calculate the quantification parameters of the influence of the diversion channel according to equation (2). α 1 .

[0009] By establishing a quantitative operator to quantify the impact of diversion channel measures, the water level-storage capacity relationship is calculated based on the Manning formula to obtain the reservoir capacity reduction rate. This directly quantifies the effect of diversion channel discharge on the reduction of the landslide dammed lake's capacity, enabling the risk assessment to dynamically reflect the effectiveness of engineering measures. The diversion channel reduces the water volume through controlled discharge, thereby reducing the energy required for a breach. In terms of engineering benefits, it avoids overly conservative decisions caused by static assessments, reduces unnecessary emergency response resource input (such as excessive excavation or evacuation), and improves resource utilization efficiency.

[0010] As a preferred option, a quantitative operator is established to assess the impact of flexible protection measures on the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes. f 2 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of flexible protection measures. α 2 The specific formula is as follows: In equation (3), △d This is the equivalent particle size increment; β For the correction factor of gabion revetment material; S The protection strength coefficient; S 1 For the protected area; S 2 The slope area of ​​the diversion channel; α 2 To mitigate the impact of flexible protective measures on quantitative parameters, α 2 ∈[0,1]; Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of flexible protection measures according to equation (3). α 2 .

[0011] The equivalent particle size method is used in geotechnical engineering to simulate the protective effect (refer to the "Code for Design of Geotechnical Engineering Protection" GB50330-2013). It calculates the equivalent particle size increment and parameters by establishing a quantification operator for the influence of flexible protective measures.α 2 This study simulates the effect of gabion-string revetment on the erosion resistance of landslide dams. It directly quantifies the strengthening effect of flexible protection on the material composition of landslide dams, enhancing dam stability. The protective measures increase the equivalent particle size, reducing the risk of water erosion and thus lowering the probability of breach. In terms of engineering benefits, it improves assessment accuracy, avoids misjudging moderately dangerous landslide dams, optimizes the configuration of protective materials, and reduces engineering costs.

[0012] As a preferred option, a quantitative operator is established to assess the impact of reservoir scheduling measures on the risk of landslide-dammed lakes. f 3 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures. α 3 The specific formula is as follows: In equation (4), Q 调度 This represents the actual inflow of water from upstream of the landslide dammed lake after regulation by upstream reservoirs. Q 来水量 This refers to the water volume flowing from the upstream of the landslide dammed lake; α 3 Quantitative parameters for the impact of reservoir scheduling measures. α 3 ∈[0,1]; Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures according to equation (4). α 3 .

[0013] By establishing a quantitative operator to measure the impact of reservoir scheduling measures, the degree of inflow reduction is quantified proportionally. This directly reflects the mitigating effect of upstream reservoir scheduling on the inflow pressure of the landslide dammed lake. Reducing inflow through scheduling directly slows the rate of water level rise, delaying the accumulation of danger. In terms of engineering benefits, it allows the assessment to incorporate real-time hydrological conditions, supports multi-reservoir coordinated scheduling decisions, and improves the accuracy of emergency response.

[0014] As a preferred option, a quantitative operator is established to assess the impact of the geometry of the diversion channel on the hazard of the landslide dammed lake. f 4 Quantitative parameters for calculating the influence of the geometry of the diversion channel α 4 The specific formula is as follows: In the formula, H 堰塞体 The height of the landslide dam; △Z The effective height of the landslide dam; Z 引流槽底板 Elevation of the bottom plate of the diversion channel; Z 堰塞体底部 This refers to the elevation of the bottom of the landslide dam. α 4Quantification parameters for the influence of the geometry of the diversion channel. α 4 ∈[0,1]; the quantitative parameters of the influence of the geometric shape of the diversion channel can be calculated according to equation (5). α 4 .

[0015] By establishing a quantitative operator to quantify the impact of diversion channel geometry, the reduction rate of dam height is calculated. This directly quantifies the changes in the dam's geometry caused by diversion channel excavation, thus reducing the effective dam height. The reduced dam height decreases the potential for a breach flood peak; in terms of engineering benefits, it allows the assessment to consider changes in the terrain, avoids ignoring the structural impact of measures, and improves the comprehensiveness of risk assessment.

[0016] As a preferred option, a comprehensive impact quantification operator is established. f 5 Determine the comprehensive impact factor α The specific formula is as follows: In equation (6), α As a comprehensive impact factor; α i To influence the quantization parameters, α i for α 1 to α 4 ; k i ( i =1, 2, 3, 4) are the weighting coefficients.

[0017] By establishing a comprehensive impact quantification operator, weighted integration is performed. α 1 to α 4 Obtain the comprehensive impact factor α It achieves the synergistic quantification of the impact of multiple measures, providing a benchmark for overall risk correction. The weights reflect the relative importance of each measure, enabling the assessment to integrate multiple engineering effects; in terms of engineering benefits, it supports the dynamic optimization of emergency response plans (such as prioritizing high-weight measures), improving the scientific nature of decision-making.

[0018] As the preferred option, based on the comprehensive impact factor α， The specific formula for dynamically assessing the danger of landslide-dammed lakes after the implementation of emergency rescue measures is as follows: In equation (7), M 抢险后 To score the risk level of the landslide-dammed lake after the emergency rescue, M 抢险前 To score the risk level of the landslide dammed lake before the emergency response, α This is a comprehensive impact factor.

[0019] This allows the hazard level to reflect the progress of emergency response measures in real time, enabling a shift from static to dynamic assessment. α, as a correction factor, directly reduces the score, reflecting the cumulative effect of the measures; in terms of engineering benefits, it guides on-site adjustments to the scope of measures (such as evacuation areas), reducing social disruption and improving emergency management efficiency.

[0020] The beneficial effects of this invention are: This invention provides a dynamic assessment method for the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures. It establishes a dynamic coupling model between emergency response measures and hazard factors, enabling dynamic correction of the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake and providing scientific support for precise emergency response. This invention overcomes the limitations of traditional methods that construct hazard level models based on static natural parameters, specifically in the following ways: First, it is the first time that the dynamic coupling between emergency measures and the risk factors of landslide dammed lakes has been achieved. The impact model of artificial emergency measures such as diversion channels, flexible protection projects, and reservoir scheduling on risk factors such as reservoir capacity, water inflow, material composition, and geometric shape has been quantified. The reduction effect of emergency measures on the risk level of landslide dammed lakes has been dynamically quantified, which solves the defect of traditional assessment methods that ignore emergency measures and provides a basis for the accurate formulation of emergency plans.

[0021] Secondly, by dynamically correcting the risk score of the landslide dammed lake through comprehensive influencing factors, the assessment results can reflect the effectiveness of emergency response measures in real time and can be used for dynamic optimization of on-site emergency response plans.

[0022] Third, it clarifies the danger level of the landslide dam after emergency measures are taken, which can directly support emergency decision-making.

[0023] Fourth, this invention has strong adaptability and is applicable to the risk assessment of all landslide-dammed lakes. Attached Figure Description

[0024] Figure 1 This is a design flowchart for the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0025] To make the technical problems solved by the present invention, the technical solutions adopted, and the technical effects achieved clearer, the technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only for explaining the present invention and not for limiting the present invention. Furthermore, it should be noted that, for ease of description, only the parts related to the present invention are shown in the accompanying drawings, not all of them.

[0026] This invention relates to a dynamic assessment method for the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures, applicable to the hazard classification assessment and emergency response decision-making of landslide-dammed lakes during emergency response periods. Traditional methods, mainly based on static natural parameters to construct hazard level models, are prone to decision-making errors. This invention proposes a landslide-dammed lake hazard assessment method based on emergency response measures, establishing a dynamic coupling model between emergency response measures and hazard factors to achieve dynamic correction of the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake, providing scientific support for precise emergency response. By establishing an impact model on hazard factors such as reservoir capacity, inflow, material composition, and geometric shape through artificial emergency response measures such as diversion channels, protective measures, and water engineering scheduling, the impact of emergency response measures on the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake is dynamically quantified, addressing the deficiency of traditional assessment methods that ignore emergency response measures, and providing a basis for accurately formulating emergency response plans. This invention employs scientific emergency response measures, which can reduce the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake from high to medium risk, effectively mitigating the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake.

[0027] This invention provides a method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures, comprising the following steps: A dynamic coupling correlation model is constructed that integrates the emergency response measure factor set, the landslide dam hazard factor set, and the emergency response measure factors and landslide dam hazard factors, as well as an impact quantification subset. F ; Affected quantization operator set F Specifically, it includes 5 factors, namely: f 1 Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lake f 2 To quantify the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes, f 3 Quantification operators for the impact of reservoir operation measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes f 4 Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of landslide dammed lake f 5 To comprehensively influence the quantization operator; Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes f 1 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the influence of the diversion channel. α 1 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide-dammed lakes. f 2 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of flexible protection measures. α 2 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of reservoir scheduling measures on the danger of landslide-dammed lakes. f 3Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures. α 3 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of landslide dammed lakes. f 4 Quantitative parameters for calculating the influence of the geometry of the diversion channel α 4 ; Establish a comprehensive impact quantification operator f 5 Quantification parameters based on the influence of the drainage channel α 1 The impact of flexible protection measures on quantitative parameters α 2 Quantitative parameters affecting reservoir scheduling measures α 3 Quantitative parameters of the influence of the geometry of the drainage channel α 4 Determine the comprehensive impact factor α ; Based on comprehensive impact factors α， A dynamic assessment of the danger posed by the landslide dammed lake will be conducted after the implementation of emergency rescue measures.

[0028] It should be understood that the specific order or hierarchy of steps in the process disclosed in this invention is an example of an exemplary method. Based on design preferences, it should be understood that the specific order or hierarchy of steps in the process may be rearranged without departing from the scope of this disclosure. The appended method claims provide elements of various steps in an exemplary order and are not intended to limit the specific order or hierarchy described.

[0029] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0030] All formulas involved in this invention are based primarily on standard reference materials in the fields of hydraulic engineering and geotechnical engineering, such as the Hydraulics Handbook (e.g., the application of Manning's formula), the Technical Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Landslide Dams (SL 450-2009), and the Code for Design of Geotechnical Engineering Protection (GB 50330-2013).

[0031] Step 1) Construct a correlation model between emergency response measures and landslide dam hazard factors; A dynamic coupling correlation model is constructed that integrates the emergency response measure factor set, the landslide dam hazard factor set, and the emergency response measure factors and landslide dam hazard factors, as shown in Equation (1): In formula (1): I The emergency response measures factor set includes three factors: i1 Measures for excavating diversion channels, i 2 Flexible protection measures for gabion-string slope protection i 3 Reservoir scheduling measures; D The set of risk factors for landslide-dammed lakes includes four factors: V The total reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake (m) 3 ), Q 来水量 The inflow of water from the upstream of the landslide dammed lake (m³) 3 / s) d The median particle size (mm) of the material composition of the landslide dam is given. H 堰塞体 The height of the landslide dam (m); F The influencing operator set includes 5 factors, namely: f 1 for i 1 right d 1 Impact quantification operator (impact quantification operator of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lake) f 2 for i 2 right d 2 Impact quantification operator (quantification operator of the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes) f 3 for i 3 right d 3 Impact quantification operator (quantification operator of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes) f 4 for i 1 right d 4 Impact quantification operator (i.e., the impact quantification operator of the geometry of the diversion channel on the danger of the landslide dammed lake) f 5 To comprehensively influence the quantization operator.

[0032] Step 2) Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of diversion channel measures on the hazard of the landslide dammed lake. f 1 ; Excavation of diversion channels i 1 The hazardous impact of the landslide dammed lake is manifested in its impact on the total reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake. d 1The reduction in water level can be achieved by diverting water through diversion channels, thereby reducing the reservoir capacity and mitigating the hazard of the landslide dammed lake. A quantitative operator is used to assess the impact of diversion channel measures on the hazard of the landslide dammed lake. f 1 As shown in equation (2); Equation (2) is derived from Manning's formula in hydraulics and is used to calculate the flow capacity of the diversion channel, and then obtain the reservoir capacity reduction rate through the water level-storage capacity relationship. Manning's formula is common knowledge in hydraulics (refer to the "Hydraulics Handbook" or industry standard SL 274-2001), and the reservoir capacity curve method is also a commonly used method in reservoir engineering (such as the "Reservoir Dispatch Design Code" SL 44-1993). In equation (2), Q 来水量 Water inflow from upstream of the landslide dammed lake (unit: m³) 3 / s); n The roughness of the drainage channel is determined based on the material of the drainage channel. A This refers to the cross-sectional area of ​​the water passage. R The hydraulic radius; i The longitudinal slope of the diversion channel; B Width of the bottom plate of the drainage channel (in meters); m The slope ratio of the diversion channel section; h This is the water level equilibrium point; Z 水位 This represents the height corresponding to the water level equilibrium point. Z 引流槽底板 Elevation of the bottom plate of the diversion channel (in meters); V 2 To determine the reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake after the diversion channel is installed; g It is the acceleration due to gravity; V 1 The maximum reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake without a diversion channel (unit: m³). 3 ); α 1 ∈[0,1] represents the quantification parameter of the influence of the drainage channel.

[0033] Q 来水量 The parameters are known. n , i, B , m、Z 引流槽底板 These data can be obtained based on the design scheme of the diversion channel; based on the above parameters, the water level equilibrium point can be calculated by formula (2). h Height corresponding to the water level equilibrium point Z 水位 Furthermore, by investigating the reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake, it was found that... Z 水位 The corresponding reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake after the diversion channel is set up V2 The maximum capacity of the landslide dammed lake without a diversion channel V 1 Thus, the quantitative parameters of the influence of the diversion channel can be calculated. α 1 .

[0034] The quantification parameters of the influence of the diversion channel are calculated according to equation (2). α 1 Its characteristic is the reduction rate of the reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake. α 1 The larger the value, the more significant the effect.

[0035] Step 3) Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes. f 2 ; The impact of flexible protection measures on the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes is manifested in the fact that gabion revetment enhances the erosion resistance of the landslide dam, effectively increasing the characteristic particle size. The quantitative operator for the impact of flexible protection measures on the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes is also discussed. f 2 As shown in equation (3); the equivalent particle size method is used in geotechnical engineering to simulate the protective effect (refer to the Code for Design of Geotechnical Engineering Protection GB 50330-2013). In equation (3), △d This is the equivalent particle size increment; β The correction factor for the gabion revetment material is determined to be 2.5 after analysis. β The value of 2.5 reflects the equivalent enhancement effect of the overall structure of the gabion string on the scour resistance of the landslide dam. It is derived from the fitting results of indoor scour tests, slope protection model tests and measured data of water conservancy engineering protection, and is a typical value for flexible gabion protection. S The protection strength coefficient; S 1 Protected area (unit: m) 2 ); S 2 The slope area of ​​the diversion channel (unit: m²) 2 ); α 2 ∈[0,1] represents the quantification parameter of the impact of flexible protection measures; The quantitative parameters of the impact of flexible protection measures are calculated according to equation (3). α 2 This is characterized by an improved resistance to erosion of the landslide dam. α 2 The larger the value, the more significant the effect.

[0036] Step 4) Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of reservoir scheduling measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes. f3 ; The impact of reservoir operation measures on the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes is manifested in the adjustment of the inflow of water upstream of the landslide-dammed lake through the operation of upstream reservoirs. A quantitative operator for the impact of reservoir operation measures on the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes is also discussed. f 3 As shown in Equation (4); Equation (4) is the basic method in hydrological scheduling (refer to the "Water Resources Scheduling Management Measures" or hydrological calculation standards). In equation (4), Q 调度 The actual inflow of water from upstream of the landslide dammed lake after regulation by upstream reservoirs (unit: m³). 3 / s); Q 来水量 Water inflow from upstream of the landslide dammed lake (unit: m³) 3 / s); α 3 ∈[0,1] represents the quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures; The quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures are calculated according to equation (4). α 3 This is characterized by the degree of reduction in upstream water flow. α 3 The larger the value, the more significant the effect.

[0037] Step 5) Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of the landslide dammed lake. f 4 ; The dam height correction method is a common technique in landslide dam risk assessment (e.g., the "Technical Guidelines for Emergency Response to Landslide Dams"). Excavating a diversion channel directly reduces the dam height, decreasing the risk of breach. The impact of the diversion channel's geometry on the landslide dam's hazard is manifested in the fact that excavating the diversion channel indirectly reduces the effective height of the landslide dam. The quantification operator for the impact of the diversion channel's geometry on the landslide dam's hazard is... f 4 As shown in equation (5): In the formula, H 堰塞体 The height of the landslide dam; △Z The effective height of the landslide dam; Z 引流槽底板 Elevation of the bottom plate of the diversion channel (in meters); Z 堰塞体底部 Elevation of the bottom of the landslide dam (in meters); α 4 ∈[0,1] represents the quantification parameter of the influence of the geometric shape of the drainage channel; The quantitative parameters of the influence of the geometry of the diversion channel can be calculated according to equation (5). α4 Its characteristic is the rate of reduction in the height of the landslide dam. α 4 The larger the value, the more significant the effect.

[0038] Step 6) Establish a comprehensive impact quantification operator f 5 ; The weighted average method is widely used in multi-factor risk assessment (e.g., the "Technical Standard for Risk Assessment" GB / T 27921-2011), comprehensively considering the above-mentioned quantitative parameters of influence. α 1 to α 4 Determine the comprehensive impact factor α As shown in equation (6): In equation (6), α As a comprehensive impact factor; α i To influence quantization parameters α 1 to α 4 ; k i ( i =1, 2, 3, 4) are the weight coefficients of each influencing parameter, satisfying k 1+ k 2+ k 3+ k 4=1, assigned based on the specific type of landslide dam emergency response measures, on-site importance, and expert experience.

[0039] Step 7) Dynamic assessment of the hazard level of the landslide dammed lake after the implementation of emergency rescue measures; Based on comprehensive impact factors α， The dynamic assessment of the danger of the landslide dammed lake after the implementation of emergency rescue measures is shown in Equation (7): In equation (7), M 抢险后 To score the risk level of the landslide-dammed lake after the emergency rescue, M 抢险前 The risk score of the landslide dammed lake before the emergency response (based on a traditional static model, which is a current technology). α This is a comprehensive impact factor.

[0040] A score of 3.0 or higher indicates extremely high risk; a score of 2.25 or higher but less than 3.0 indicates high risk; a score of 1.5 or higher but less than 2.25 indicates moderate risk; and a score less than 1.5 indicates low risk.

[0041] The specific implementation of the present invention will be further described below with reference to specific embodiments: 1. Basic Data Collection and Processing. The first category is natural parameters. This involves using drones and other methods to measure the topographic map of the landslide-dammed lake area, and then constructing a water level-capacity curve based on the topographic map. Upstream water inflow is analyzed and calculated using facilities such as hydrological stations upstream of the landslide-dammed lake. Parameters such as the height and elevation of the landslide dam are obtained through on-site measurements of the landslide-dammed lake. The second category is parameters for emergency response measures. This includes obtaining the elevation of the diversion channel bottom plate, the width of the diversion channel bottom plate, the longitudinal slope of the diversion channel, the cross-sectional slope ratio of the diversion channel, and the roughness of the diversion channel, based on the design scheme of the diversion channel. 、 The protection strength coefficient is calculated and analyzed based on the distribution of reservoirs upstream of the landslide dammed lake, taking into account the actual inflow of water upstream of the landslide dammed lake.

[0042] 2. Calculate the quantitative parameters of emergency response measures. Based on the "quantitative operator of the impact of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lake". f 1 "Quantitative Calculator of the Impact of Flexible Protection Measures on the Danger of Landslide-Damaged Lakes" f 2 "Quantitative Operator of the Impact of Reservoir Dispatch Measures on the Danger of Landslide-Damaged Lakes" f 3 "Quantitative operator for the influence of diversion channel geometry on the danger of landslide dammed lake" f 4 ", combined with the input parameters, calculate the quantitative parameters of the emergency response measures." α 1 to α 4 Thus, the comprehensive impact factor is obtained. α。

[0043] 3. Dynamic assessment of the hazard level of the landslide dammed lake. Calculate the hazard score of the landslide dammed lake before the emergency response. M 抢险前 And the risk score of the landslide dammed lake after the emergency rescue. M 抢险后 The dynamic quantification of the reduction in the danger of the landslide dammed lake by emergency rescue measures, combined with the dynamic optimization of emergency rescue measures based on emergency rescue practice, guides scientific emergency rescue.

[0044] 4. The implementation process will be further illustrated using a landslide dammed lake as an example.

[0045] 1) Quantitative operator for calculating the impact of diversion channel measures on the hazard of landslide dammed lake f 1 ; Q 来水量 =35m 3 / s, n =0.035, i =1 / 10000, B =5m, m =2,Z 引流槽底板 =740m, the water level equilibrium point was obtained by trial calculation using formula (2). h =4.6m, then Z 水位 = Z 引流槽底板 + h= 744.6m, found through the reservoir capacity curve of the landslide dammed lake. Z 水位 The corresponding reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake after the diversion channel is set up V 2 = 8.1 million m 3 The maximum capacity of the landslide dammed lake without a diversion channel V 1 =15 million m 3 ; but α 1 =1-810 / 1500=0.46.

[0046] 2) Quantitative operators for calculating the impact of flexible protection measures on the hazard of landslide dammed lakes f 2 ; The flexible slope protection measure using gabion mesh has a protection strength coefficient of [missing value]. S= 20%, calculated △d =2.6, α 2 =1 / (1+1.5^(-0.05×2.6))=0.51.

[0047] 3) Quantitative operators for calculating the impact of reservoir scheduling measures on the risk of landslide dammed lakes f 3 ; There are no reservoirs upstream of the landslide dammed lake. Q 调度 =0m 3 / s, α 3 =0 / 35=0.

[0048] 4) Quantitative operator for calculating the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of the landslide dammed lake f 4 ; Z 引流槽底板 =640m, Z 堰塞体底部 =598m, △Z =42m, H 堰塞体 =62m, α 4 =1-42 / 62=0.32.

[0049] 5) Calculate the comprehensive impact factor α ; The weighting coefficients are all based on k i =0.25 Calculation, Then α = 0.25 × 0.46 + 0.25 × 0.51 + 0.25 × 0 + 0.25 × 0.32 = 0.32.

[0050] 6) Dynamic assessment of the hazard level of landslide-dammed lakes; M 抢险前 =2.25, corresponding to a high risk level. M 抢险后 = (1-0.32)×2.25=1.53, corresponding to a risk level that has been reduced from high risk to medium risk.

[0051] Through the above steps, the implementation of the dynamic assessment method for the risk of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures, as proposed in this invention, is completed.

[0052] This invention provides a dynamic assessment method for the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures. It establishes a dynamic coupling model between emergency response measures and hazard factors, enabling dynamic correction of the hazard level of the landslide-dammed lake and providing scientific support for precise emergency response. This invention overcomes the limitations of traditional methods that construct hazard level models based on static natural parameters, and has the following advantages: First, it is the first time that the dynamic coupling between emergency measures and the risk factors of landslide dammed lakes has been achieved. The impact model of artificial emergency measures such as diversion channels, flexible protection projects, and reservoir scheduling on risk factors such as reservoir capacity, water inflow, material composition, and geometric shape has been quantified. The reduction effect of emergency measures on the risk level of landslide dammed lakes has been dynamically quantified, which solves the defect of traditional assessment methods that ignore emergency measures and provides a basis for the accurate formulation of emergency plans.

[0053] Secondly, by dynamically correcting the risk score of the landslide dammed lake through comprehensive influencing factors, the assessment results can reflect the effectiveness of emergency response measures in real time and can be used for dynamic optimization of on-site emergency response plans.

[0054] Third, it clarifies the danger level of the landslide dam after emergency measures are taken, which can directly support emergency decision-making.

[0055] Fourth, this invention has strong adaptability and is applicable to the risk assessment of all landslide-dammed lakes.

[0056] All other parts not described herein belong to the prior art. The embodiments described above are merely illustrative of several implementations of the present invention, and their descriptions are relatively specific and detailed, but they should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make several modifications and improvements without departing from the concept of the present invention, and these all fall within the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of this patent should be determined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic assessment of the danger of a barrier lake based on emergency measures, characterized in that: Includes the following steps, A dynamic coupling correlation model of the rescue measure factor set, the dammed lake danger factor set, and the rescue measure factor and the dammed lake danger factor is constructed, and a set of influence quantization operators is constructed F ; quantification operator set F Specifically includes 5 factors, respectively: f 1 quantification operator for the influence of the drainage groove measures on the dammed lake danger, f 2 quantification operator for the influence of the flexible protection measures on the dammed lake danger, f 3 quantification operator for the influence of the reservoir operation measures on the dammed lake danger, f 4 quantification operator for the influence of the drainage groove geometry on the dammed lake danger, f 5 quantification operator for the comprehensive influence; Establishing a drainage groove measure to quantify the influence operator of dammed lake danger f 1 , calculate the influence quantization parameter of drainage groove α 1 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide-dammed lakes. f 2 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of flexible protection measures. α 2 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of reservoir scheduling measures on the danger of landslide-dammed lakes. f 3 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures. α 3 ; Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of landslide dammed lakes. f 4 Quantitative parameters for calculating the influence of the geometry of the diversion channel α 4 ; Establish a comprehensive impact quantification operator f 5 Quantification parameters based on the influence of the drainage channel α 1 The impact of flexible protection measures on quantitative parameters α 2 Quantitative parameters affecting reservoir scheduling measures α 3 Quantitative parameters of the influence of the geometry of the drainage channel α 4 Determine the comprehensive impact factor α ; Based on comprehensive impact factors α A dynamic assessment of the danger of the landslide dammed lake will be conducted after the implementation of emergency rescue measures.

2. The method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures as described in claim 1, characterized in that: The dynamic coupling and correlation model is as follows: In formula (1): I The emergency response measures factor set includes three factors: i 1 Measures for excavating diversion channels, i 2 Flexible protection measures for gabion-string slope protection i 3 Reservoir scheduling measures; D The set of risk factors for landslide-dammed lakes includes four factors: V For the total reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake, Q 来水量 For the upstream water volume of the landslide dammed lake, d The median particle size of the material composition of the landslide dam, H 堰塞体 The height of the landslide dam; F To influence the quantization subset, f 1 Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lake f 2 To quantify the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes, f 3 Quantification operators for the impact of reservoir operation measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes f 4 Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of landslide dammed lakes f 5 To comprehensively influence the quantization operator.

3. The method for dynamic assessment of the risk of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures as described in claim 2, characterized in that: Quantification operator for the impact of diversion channel measures on the danger of landslide dammed lakes f 1 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the influence of the diversion channel. α 1 The specific formula is as follows: In equation (2), Q 来水量 This refers to the water volume flowing from the upstream of the landslide dammed lake; n The roughness of the drainage channel is determined based on the material of the drainage channel. A This refers to the cross-sectional area of ​​the water passage. R The hydraulic radius; i The longitudinal slope of the diversion channel; B Width of the bottom plate of the drainage channel; m The slope ratio of the diversion channel section; h This is the water level equilibrium point; Z 水位 This represents the height corresponding to the water level equilibrium point. Z 引流槽底板 Elevation of the bottom plate of the diversion channel; V 2 To determine the reservoir capacity of the landslide dammed lake after the diversion channel is installed; g It is the acceleration due to gravity; V 1 This represents the maximum capacity of the landslide-dammed lake without an irrigation channel. α 1 To quantify the influence of the diversion channel, α 1 ∈[0,1]; The quantification parameters of the influence of the diversion channel are calculated according to equation (2). α 1 .

4. The method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures as described in claim 3, characterized in that: Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of flexible protection measures on the danger of landslide-dammed lakes. f 2 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of flexible protection measures. α 2 The specific formula is as follows: In equation (3), △d This is the equivalent particle size increment; β For the correction factor of gabion revetment material; S The protection strength coefficient; S 1 For the protected area; S 2 The slope area of ​​the diversion channel; α 2 To mitigate the impact of flexible protective measures on quantitative parameters, α 2 ∈[0,1]; The quantitative parameters of the impact of flexible protection measures are calculated according to equation (3). α 2 .

5. The method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures as described in claim 4, characterized in that: Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of reservoir scheduling measures on the danger of landslide-dammed lakes. f 3 Calculate the quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures. α 3 The specific formula is as follows: In equation (4), Q 调度 This represents the actual inflow of water from upstream of the landslide dammed lake after regulation by upstream reservoirs. Q 来水量 This refers to the water volume flowing from the upstream of the landslide dammed lake; α 3 Quantitative parameters for the impact of reservoir scheduling measures. α 3 ∈[0,1]; The quantitative parameters of the impact of reservoir scheduling measures are calculated according to equation (4). α 3 .

6. The method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures as described in claim 5, characterized in that: Establish a quantitative operator for the impact of diversion channel geometry on the hazard of landslide dammed lakes. f 4 Quantitative parameters for calculating the influence of the geometry of the diversion channel α 4 The specific formula is as follows: In the formula, H 堰塞体 The height of the landslide dam; △Z The effective height of the landslide dam; Z 引流槽底板 Elevation of the bottom plate of the diversion channel; Z 堰塞体底部 This refers to the elevation of the bottom of the landslide dam. α 4 To quantify the influence of the geometry of the drainage channel, α 4 ∈[0,1]; the quantitative parameters of the influence of the geometric shape of the diversion channel can be calculated according to equation (5). α 4 .

7. The method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of landslide-dammed lakes based on emergency response measures as described in claim 6, characterized in that: Establish a comprehensive impact quantification operator f 5 Determine the comprehensive impact factor α The specific formula is as follows: In equation (6), α As a comprehensive impact factor; α i To influence the quantization parameters, α i for α 1 to α 4 ; k i ( i =1, 2, 3, 4) are the weighting coefficients.

8. The method for dynamic assessment of the hazard of a landslide-dammed lake based on emergency response measures as described in claim 7, characterized in that: Based on comprehensive impact factors α， The specific formula for dynamically assessing the danger of landslide-dammed lakes after the implementation of emergency rescue measures is as follows: In equation (7), M 抢险后 To score the risk level of the landslide-dammed lake after the emergency rescue, M 抢险前 To score the risk level of the landslide dammed lake before the emergency response, α This is a comprehensive impact factor.

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