Method, system and device for determining early warning water level for emergency disposal of dammed lake and medium

Abstract

This invention provides a method, system, equipment, and medium for determining the early warning water level in emergency response to landslide dammed lakes, addressing the shortcomings of traditional early warning systems that rely on experience and neglect dynamic factors. First, it constructs an evaluation factor set including key parameters such as the critical dam-break water level based on the type of landslide dam. Then, it divides the early warning scenarios based on emergency response practices and establishes quantitative models for the early warning water level under each scenario. Next, it constructs a quantitative model for subsidence based on the height and material composition of the landslide dam, as well as a quantitative model for early warning ultra-high values ​​that comprehensively considers risk level, wind and wave impact, and safety margin, achieving a systematic quantification of key factors such as dynamic deterioration of the dam and external conditions. Finally, by substituting specific parameters and performing linked calculations, a precise and dynamic early warning water level is obtained. This invention realizes a shift from experience-based judgment to model-based calculation, improving the timeliness, accuracy, and decision-making guidance of early warnings.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of water conservancy project management technology, and relates to methods, systems, equipment and media for determining early warning water levels. Background Technology

[0002] Landslide-dammed lakes are formed by sudden landslides or collapses blocking river channels. Their natural dam structures are loose and uncompacted, making them highly susceptible to catastrophic sudden breaches under the combined influence of continuous reservoir water pressure, intensified internal seepage and erosion, and external rainfall scouring. The suddenness and instantaneous release of enormous energy cause destructive effects far exceeding those of conventional reservoirs. These breaches occur extremely rapidly, often generating devastating flood waves within a very short time, posing a catastrophic threat to the lives and property of downstream residents, infrastructure, and even the ecological environment. Therefore, accurately and promptly determining warning water levels to provide downstream personnel and rescue teams with a precious evacuation window is a crucial lifeline for emergency response to landslide-dammed lakes.

[0003] However, current traditional methods for determining the warning water level of landslide dammed lakes mainly rely on the individual experience of engineers or decision-makers for estimation and judgment. They fail to systematically and comprehensively consider key dynamic factors such as the rate of water level rise, the time required for safe evacuation of personnel, and the dynamic deterioration process of the stability of the landslide dam over time. This results in warning decisions often having significant flaws and failing to meet actual needs: when the risk increases sharply, such as when there is heavy rainfall combined with abnormal seepage in the dam, the warning is delayed due to slow response, exposing personnel to danger; when the risk is relatively controllable, such as when the artificial diversion channel effectively controls the flow and the dam is stable, the warning is too conservative, leading to redundant warnings, causing unnecessary panic, waste of resources, and social costs. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the problems described in the background art regarding the traditional methods for determining the early warning water level of landslide-dammed lakes, which rely primarily on the individual experience of engineers or decision-makers for estimation and judgment, fail to systematically consider key dynamic factors such as the rate of water level rise, the time required for safe evacuation of personnel, and the dynamic deterioration process of the stability of the landslide dam over time, and whose early warning decisions often have significant flaws and do not meet actual needs, this invention provides a method, system, equipment, and medium for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide-dammed lakes.

[0005] The first aspect of the present invention provides a method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes, comprising: Based on the type of landslide dam, an assessment factor set for the early warning water level of the landslide dam is constructed. The assessment factor set includes the critical dam break water level, the elevation of the dam pass, and the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel. Based on the assessment factor set of the landslide dammed lake warning water level, combined with the landslide dam subsidence and the landslide dammed lake warning super-high value, the warning conditions are divided according to the requirements of landslide dammed lake emergency rescue practice, and a quantitative model of the landslide dammed lake warning water level under each condition is constructed. Based on the height of the landslide dam and the subsidence coefficient of the landslide dam, a quantitative model of the subsidence of the landslide dam based on the material composition of the landslide dam is constructed. Based on the risk level of the landslide dammed lake, the safety margin of the warning water level is determined sequentially. Based on the maximum wave run-up of the landslide dammed lake, the wind-induced water level height of the landslide dammed lake, and the safety margin of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake, and combined with the risk level of the landslide dammed lake, a quantitative model of the ultra-high value of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is constructed. Based on the parameter values ​​of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed, the subsidence of the landslide dam and the early warning super-high value of the landslide dammed lake are calculated using the quantitative model of the landslide dam subsidence and the quantitative model of the early warning super-high value of the landslide dammed lake, respectively. Then, these values ​​are substituted into the quantitative model of the early warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under various working conditions, and finally the early warning water level of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed is calculated.

[0006] Furthermore, the evaluation factor set for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is shown in the following formula: F={H fail ，H crest ，R rise ，T evac ，S subs ，S warn ，H drain } (1), in, H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; R rise The rate of rise of the reservoir water level; T evac This is the time for workers to evacuate; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn For warning of excessively high values; H drain This refers to the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel.

[0007] Furthermore, the quantitative model for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under each warning condition is shown in the following formula: (2), in, H warnThe warning water level for the landslide-dammed lake; H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; H drain The elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel; f(R rise ,t) Let be the function of the rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake as a function of time, and its physical meaning is the instantaneous rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake reservoir at a certain moment t; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn Warning for extremely high values; Warning condition 1: The landslide dam is a defective landslide dam, which may collapse or seep failure when the water level rises, leading to overall instability. The critical dam-break water level should be determined based on the distribution elevation of the defects. H fail The warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 1; warning condition 2: the landslide body has the risk of overtopping, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 2; warning condition 3: the landslide body adopts intervention measures including diversion channels or spillways, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 3; when the landslide body of the landslide dammed lake has two or more of the above conditions, the minimum value calculated under each condition is taken as the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake.

[0008] Furthermore, the quantitative model for the subsidence of the landslide dam is shown in the following formula: (3), in, H dam η represents the height of the landslide dam. When the landslide height exceeds 100m, the landslide dam is classified as a high-level landslide collapse dam, which is relatively dense, and its subsidence during the emergency response phase can be ignored. η is the subsidence coefficient, which is determined according to the material composition of the landslide dam: dense gravelly soil: η=1%; loose sandy soil: η=2.5%; clay mixed with gravel: η=3%. The subsidence coefficients for other types of material compositions are determined with reference to the above values.

[0009] Furthermore, the quantitative model for the extremely high value of the landslide dam warning is shown in the following formula: (4), in, R wave This represents the highest wave height recorded at the landslide dammed lake. H wind The height of the landslide dammed lake due to wind obstruction of the water surface; Case 1: When calculating R wave andH wind Provided that the required wind speed and water length of the landslide-dammed lake are available, the warning value for the highest elevation is calculated according to the formula corresponding to Case 1; Case 2: When calculating R wave and H wind When the required wind speed and water length of the landslide dammed lake are difficult to obtain, the warning value of the extreme wind speed shall be determined according to the formula corresponding to Case 2. H margin The formula for calculating the safety margin of the warning water level for landslide dammed lakes is as follows: (5).

[0010] A second aspect of the present invention provides a system for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes, including a module for determining an evaluation factor set, a module for constructing a quantitative model of the early warning water level of the landslide dammed lake, a module for constructing a quantitative model of the subsidence of the landslide dam, a module for constructing a quantitative model of the early warning super-high value of the landslide dammed lake, and a module for calculating the early warning water level of the landslide dammed lake to be evaluated.

[0011] The assessment factor set determination module determines the assessment factor set for the warning water level of the landslide dam lake based on the type of landslide dam body. The assessment factor set includes the critical dam break water level, the elevation of the dam mouth, and the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel.

[0012] The module for constructing the quantitative model of the landslide dam warning water level is based on the evaluation factor set of the landslide dam warning water level, combined with the landslide body subsidence and the landslide dam warning super-high value, and divides the warning conditions according to the requirements of landslide dam emergency rescue practice, and constructs the quantitative model of the landslide dam warning water level under each warning condition.

[0013] The module for constructing the quantitative model of landslide dam settlement builds a quantitative model of landslide dam settlement based on the height of the landslide dam and the settlement coefficient of the landslide dam.

[0014] The module for constructing the quantitative model of the landslide dam warning extreme high value determines the safety margin of the landslide dam warning water level in sequence according to the risk level of the landslide dam. Based on the maximum wave run-up of the landslide dam, the wind-induced water level height of the landslide dam, and the safety margin of the landslide dam warning water level, and combined with the risk level of the landslide dam, a quantitative model of the landslide dam warning extreme high value is constructed.

[0015] The warning water level calculation module for the landslide dammed lake to be assessed first calculates the landslide dammed lake subsidence and warning superelevation value using the quantitative model of landslide dammed lake subsidence and the quantitative model of landslide dammed lake warning superelevation value, respectively, based on the parameter values ​​of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed. Then, it substitutes these values ​​into the quantitative model of landslide dammed lake warning water level under each working condition, and finally calculates the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed.

[0016] Furthermore, the evaluation factor set for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is shown in the following formula: F={H fail ，H crest ，R rise ，T evac ，S subs ，S warn ，H drain } (1), in, H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; R rise The rate of rise of the reservoir water level; T evac This is the time for workers to evacuate; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn For warning of excessively high values; H drain The elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel; The quantitative model for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under each warning condition is shown in the following formula: (2), in, H warn The warning water level for the landslide-dammed lake; H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; H drain The elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel; f(R rise ,t) Let be the function of the rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake as a function of time, and its physical meaning is the instantaneous rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake reservoir at a certain moment t; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn Warning for extremely high values; Warning condition 1: The landslide dam is a defective landslide dam, which may collapse or seep failure when the water level rises, leading to overall instability. The critical dam-break water level should be determined based on the distribution elevation of the defects. H failThe warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 1; warning condition 2: the landslide body has the risk of overtopping, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 2; warning condition 3: the landslide body adopts intervention measures including diversion channels or spillways, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 3; when the landslide body of the landslide dammed lake has two or more of the above conditions, the minimum value calculated under each condition is taken as the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake.

[0017] Furthermore, the quantitative model for the subsidence of the landslide dam is shown in the following formula: (3), in, H dam η represents the height of the landslide dam. When the landslide height exceeds 100m, the landslide dam is classified as a high-level landslide collapse dam, which is relatively dense, and its subsidence during the emergency response phase can be ignored. η is the subsidence coefficient, which is determined based on the material composition of the landslide dam: dense gravelly soil: η = 1%; loose sandy soil: η = 2.5%; clay mixed with gravel: η = 3%. The subsidence coefficients for other types of material compositions are determined with reference to the above values. The quantitative model for the extremely high value of the landslide dammed lake early warning is shown in the following formula: (4), in, R wave This represents the highest wave height recorded at the landslide dammed lake. H wind The height of the landslide dammed lake due to wind obstruction of the water surface; Case 1: When calculating R wave and H wind Provided that the required wind speed and water length of the landslide-dammed lake are available, the warning value for the highest elevation is calculated according to the formula corresponding to Case 1; Case 2: When calculating R wave and H wind When the required wind speed and water length of the landslide dammed lake are difficult to obtain, the warning value of the extreme wind speed shall be determined according to the formula corresponding to Case 2. H margin The formula for calculating the safety margin of the warning water level for landslide dammed lakes is as follows: (5).

[0018] A third aspect of the present invention provides an electronic device, characterized in that it comprises: a memory and a processor, wherein the memory and the processor are communicatively connected to each other, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to realize the method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes as described above.

[0019] A fourth aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes as described above.

[0020] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages: (1) Quantitative calculation of warning water level: The determination of warning water level currently mainly relies on the subjective judgment and estimation of limited static parameters (such as dam height and reservoir capacity) based on the personal experience of engineers, lacking systematic quantitative standards and model support; This invention constructs an evaluation factor set containing core factors such as "critical dam break water level, dam mouth elevation, and diversion channel bottom elevation", and establishes a quantitative calculation model under different warning conditions based on this, transforming the process of determining warning water level from subjective experience judgment to objective and systematic calculation based on clear factors and models, which significantly improves the scientificity and standardization of decision-making; (2) Improve the timeliness and accuracy of early warning: Traditional methods are difficult to effectively incorporate and quantify dynamic risk factors that change over time, such as the rate of water level rise, personnel evacuation time, dynamic deterioration of dam stability (such as increased seepage and subsidence), and the impact of wind and waves, resulting in static early warning water levels that cannot reflect the evolution of risks in real time. This invention specifically constructs a "quantitative model of landslide dam subsidence" and a "quantitative model of landslide dam early warning super-high value". The former dynamically estimates dam subsidence based on the height of the landslide dam and the material composition, i.e., the subsidence coefficient, while the latter dynamically determines the safety margin by comprehensively considering factors such as risk level, wind and wave rise, and wind-induced water increase. Substituting these dynamic quantitative results into the main model of early warning water level enables the final determined early warning water level to dynamically respond to changes in dam structure, meteorological and hydrological conditions, and risk level, thereby more accurately capturing the risk critical point and effectively alleviating the problems of early warning lag caused by slow response or early warning redundancy caused by excessive conservatism in traditional methods. (3) Strong practicality and specificity: Traditional empirical methods are usually too general and lack a differentiated early warning water level calculation framework for different potential dam failure mechanisms (such as seepage failure, overtopping scour, and diversion channel failure). Based on the practice of landslide dam emergency rescue, this invention clearly divides different early warning conditions and constructs corresponding early warning water level quantitative models for each condition. This ensures that the model can cover typical dam failure scenarios such as defect seepage, overtopping, and diversion channel flow control, making the early warning water level calculation more specific and practically instructive, and improving the applicability and reliability of the model in complex and ever-changing emergency scenarios. (4) Improve the efficiency of emergency response decision-making: The connection between the warning water level obtained by traditional methods and the subsequent specific emergency actions (such as personnel evacuation and engineering response) is often not clear and direct enough, relying on secondary decision-making; This invention emphasizes that the model output results can be directly used to guide the timing of personnel evacuation and the activation threshold of emergency response measures; The warning water level calculated by the systematic model itself incorporates considerations such as the time required for safe personnel evacuation, providing decision-makers with clear and quantifiable action trigger points, which helps to shorten the decision-making chain and improve the speed of emergency response and the overall efficiency of emergency response; (5) Strong universality and adaptability: Traditional methods that rely on specific experience are limited in applicability and accuracy by the decision-maker’s personal experience and specific cases, and are difficult to extend to all types of landslide dams. This invention extracts and quantifies universal parameters such as landslide dam type, height, material composition, risk level, wind and wave conditions, and constructs a universal model framework. This invention is applicable to landslide dams of different scales, different material compositions, and different risk stages, and has strong universal applicability and adaptability, providing a unified technical method support for emergency early warning of various types of landslide dams.

[0021] In summary, this invention, by constructing a quantitative model system integrating key static and dynamic factors, has transformed the determination of landslide dammed lake warning water levels from "experience-driven, static and extensive" to "model-driven, dynamic and precise," thereby significantly improving the timeliness, accuracy, and reliability of warnings in theory, and providing a direct and scientific basis for emergency rescue operations. Attached Figure Description

[0022] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the method of the present invention.

[0023] Figure 2 This is a system architecture diagram of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0024] To make the technical problems to be solved, the technical solutions, and the beneficial effects of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0025] Example 1 The method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes is illustrated in the flowchart below. Figure 1 As shown, the specific steps are as follows.

[0026] Based on the type of landslide dam, an assessment factor set for the early warning water level of the landslide dam is constructed. The assessment factor set includes the critical dam break water level, the elevation of the dam mouth, and the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel.

[0027] Specifically, the set of assessment factors for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is shown in the following formula: F={H fail ，H crest ，R rise ，T evac ，S subs ，S warn ，H drain } (1), in, H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; R rise The rate of rise of the reservoir water level; T evac This is the time for workers to evacuate; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn For warning of excessively high values; H drain This refers to the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel.

[0028] More specifically, methods such as ground-penetrating radar are used to detect the distribution of defects, and the elevation of the defects' locations is determined on-site, thereby calculating the critical dam-break water level. H fail The elevation of the landslide dam pass was obtained using methods such as drone mapping. H crest Based on the design scheme of the diversion channel, determine the bottom elevation of the diversion channel. H drain . In this embodiment, based on the type of landslide dam, an evaluation factor set is constructed, which includes the critical dam break water level, the elevation of the landslide dam pass, the rate of rise of the reservoir water level, the evacuation time of the workers, the amount of landslide dam subsidence, the early warning superelevation value, and the bottom elevation of the diversion channel, comprehensively covering static structural parameters and dynamic risk factors.

[0029] Traditional methods rely solely on limited static parameters such as dam height and reservoir capacity, neglecting dynamic key factors like the rate of water level rise and evacuation time, leading to a disconnect between early warnings and actual risks. This invention constructs an assessment factor set that includes static structural parameters such as the elevation of the dammed lake pass and the bottom elevation of the diversion channel, as well as dynamic factors like the rate of water level rise and subsidence, and considers key emergency practice elements such as evacuation time, achieving comprehensive coverage of factors influencing the risk of landslide-dammed lakes. These factors characterize risks from multiple dimensions, including structural stability, hydrological dynamics, and emergency needs, ensuring that subsequent model calculations fully reflect actual conditions and avoiding early warning deviations due to missing key factors. This embodiment addresses the problems of single factors and lack of systematicity in traditional methods by constructing an assessment factor set for landslide-dammed lake early warning water levels, providing comprehensive and scientific parameter support for early warning water level calculations and improving the integrity of the computational foundation.

[0030] Based on the assessment factor set of the landslide dammed lake warning water level, combined with the landslide dam subsidence and the landslide dammed lake warning peak value, the warning conditions are divided according to the requirements of landslide dammed lake emergency rescue practice, and a quantitative model of the landslide dammed lake warning water level under each condition is constructed.

[0031] Specifically, the quantitative model for the warning water level of the landslide dam under each warning condition is shown in the following formula: (2), in, H warn The warning water level for the landslide-dammed lake; H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; H drain The elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel; f(R rise ,t) Let be the function of the rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake as a function of time. Its physical meaning is the instantaneous rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake reservoir at a certain moment t, and the unit is m / h. S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn Warning for extremely high values; Warning condition 1: The landslide dam is a defective landslide dam, which may collapse or seep failure when the water level rises, leading to overall instability. The critical dam-break water level should be determined based on the distribution elevation of the defects. H failThe warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 1; warning condition 2: the landslide body has the risk of overtopping, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 2; warning condition 3: the landslide body adopts intervention measures including diversion channels or spillways, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 3; when the landslide body of the landslide dammed lake has two or more of the above conditions, the minimum value calculated under each condition is taken as the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake.

[0032] It must be stated that, T evac For the evacuation time of the workers, then in formula (2), the integral term This indicates the rise in the water level of the landslide dam during the time the workers were evacuated.

[0033] In this embodiment, based on emergency rescue practices, three types of early warning conditions are classified: instability of the defective landslide dam, risk of overtopping, and effect of intervention measures. A dedicated quantitative model is constructed for each condition, and when multiple conditions coexist, the minimum calculated value is taken as the early warning water level.

[0034] The risk of landslide dam failure stems from various mechanisms, such as seepage failure due to defective dams, overtopping caused by excessive dam height, and flow control after intervention in diversion channels. The critical risk points differ significantly for each mechanism. Traditional empirical methods fail to differentiate between operating conditions and employ uniform standards for calculation, leading to a "one-size-fits-all" problem—potentially delayed warnings for defective dams and overly conservative warnings for dams where intervention measures have been implemented. This invention categorizes three typical operating conditions based on the failure mechanism, with each condition corresponding to a calculation model tailored to its risk logic. For example, the defective condition focuses on the critical failure water level, while the intervention condition is linked to the diversion channel bottom elevation, ensuring accurate matching of calculation results with the actual risk mechanism. Simultaneously, the minimum value across multiple conditions is used as the final warning water level, prioritizing the safety threshold under the most dangerous scenario, maximizing the reduction of failure risk, and enhancing the model's practicality in complex emergency scenarios. This embodiment constructs a quantitative model of the warning water level of the landslide dam under various working conditions, thereby achieving the pertinence and safety of the warning water level calculation, adapting to complex scenarios with different failure mechanisms, and avoiding the warning failure or redundancy caused by traditional general calculation.

[0035] Based on the height of the landslide dam and the subsidence coefficient, a quantitative model of the subsidence of the landslide dam is constructed based on the material composition of the landslide dam.

[0036] Specifically, the quantitative model for the settlement of the landslide dam is shown in the following formula: (3), in, H damη represents the height of the landslide dam. When the landslide height exceeds 100m, the landslide dam is classified as a high-level landslide collapse dam, which is relatively dense, and its subsidence during the emergency response phase can be ignored. η is the subsidence coefficient, which is determined according to the material composition of the landslide dam: dense gravelly soil: η=1%; loose sandy soil: η=2.5%; clay mixed with gravel: η=3%. The subsidence coefficients for other types of material compositions are determined with reference to the above values.

[0037] More specifically, a function of the water level change over time of the landslide dammed lake is fitted based on monitoring data of the landslide dammed lake. f(R rise , t)； Evacuation time is calculated based on parameters such as the length of the evacuation route for workers. T evac Determine the amount of subsidence based on whether the landslide dam is a high-altitude landslide or collapse. S subs Calculations are performed under the following conditions: if the landslide height exceeds 100m, S subs The value is set to 0m. Otherwise, the subsidence coefficient η is determined based on the material composition of the landslide dam. Based on data availability, the calculation conditions for the landslide dam warning's ultra-high elevation are determined. If parameters such as wind speed and water length of the landslide dam are available in a short time, the ultra-high elevation value for the landslide dam warning is calculated according to condition 1 of the landslide dam warning ultra-high elevation quantitative model, and a safety margin is determined according to the risk level of the landslide dam. H margin Otherwise, the warning level for the landslide dam should be determined according to the risk level of the landslide dammed lake. S warn .

[0038] More specifically, if the landslide dam is a defective landslide dam, the warning water level is calculated according to warning condition 1 of the quantitative model of the landslide dam warning water level; if the landslide dam has the risk of overtopping, the warning water level is calculated according to warning condition 2 of the quantitative model of the landslide dam warning water level; if the landslide dam adopts intervention measures such as diversion channels or spillways, the warning water level is calculated according to warning condition 3 of the quantitative model of the landslide dam warning water level; when the landslide dam has two or more of the above conditions, the minimum value calculated by each warning condition is taken as the warning water level.

[0039] In this embodiment, a model is constructed based on the height of the landslide dam and the settlement coefficient. The settlement coefficient is determined according to the material composition (1% dense gravel soil, 2.5% loose sand soil, and 3% clay mixed with gravel). The settlement of high-level landslide collapse-type landslide dams with a landslide height exceeding 100m is ignored.

[0040] Landslide dams are formed by the accumulation of landslide or collapse materials. Their loose structure makes them prone to subsidence under reservoir water pressure, leading to a decrease in the actual effective elevation and an earlier risk of breach. Traditional methods do not consider subsidence and calculate warning water levels based on the initial dam elevation, which can result in delayed warnings due to the actual dam becoming "lower." The model in this invention determines the subsidence coefficient through material composition, closely reflecting the physical characteristics of different materials—dense gravelly soil structures are stable with minimal subsidence, while loose clay mixed with gravel structures experience significant subsidence, ensuring scientifically sound values. It also distinguishes between high-altitude landslide-type landslide dams (dense structures with negligible subsidence), avoiding unnecessary parameter redundancy. This model can dynamically calculate the effective elevation changes caused by dam subsidence, ensuring that warning water level calculations fully adapt to the dynamic deterioration process of the dam structure, reducing warning deviations caused by subsidence, and improving warning accuracy. This embodiment constructs a quantitative model of landslide dam settlement based on the material composition of the landslide dam, accurately quantifies the elevation changes caused by the dynamic deterioration of the dam body, makes up for the shortcomings of traditional methods that ignore dam settlement, and improves the response capability of the early warning water level to the dynamic changes of the dam structure.

[0041] Based on the risk level of the landslide dammed lake, the safety margin of the warning water level is determined sequentially. Based on the maximum wave run-up of the landslide dammed lake, the wind-induced water level rise of the landslide dammed lake, and the safety margin of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake, and combined with the risk level of the landslide dammed lake, a quantitative model of the ultra-high value of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is constructed.

[0042] Specifically, the quantitative model for the extremely high value of the landslide dam warning is shown in the following formula: (4), in, R wave This represents the highest wave height recorded at the landslide dammed lake. H wind The height of the landslide dammed lake due to wind obstruction of the water surface; Case 1: When calculating R wave and H wind Provided that the required wind speed and water length of the landslide-dammed lake are available, the warning value for the highest elevation is calculated according to the formula corresponding to Case 1; Case 2: When calculating R wave and H wind When the required wind speed and water length of the landslide-dammed lake are difficult to obtain, the warning value for extremely high winds is determined according to the formula corresponding to scenario 2. Among these, R wave and H wind The two parameters can be obtained according to the "Design Code for Rolled Earth-Rock Dams" (SL 274-2020).

[0043] H marginThe formula for calculating the safety margin of the warning water level for landslide dammed lakes is as follows: (5).

[0044] In this embodiment, the quantitative model for the early warning value of the landslide dammed lake is constructed by combining the risk level with the maximum wave run-up, the wind-induced water level rise, and the safety margin. The model is calculated in two cases: "parameters are available" and "parameters are difficult to obtain". The safety margin is determined according to the risk level.

[0045] Warning of extremely high values S warn Formula (4) for determining the safety margin of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake H margin In the formula (5), the risk level of the landslide dammed lake is classified according to the "Technical Specification for Risk Level Classification and Emergency Response of Landslide Dammed Lakes (SL / T 450-2021)" and the warning value is above the maximum value. S warn and the safety margin of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake H margin The value is determined according to this specification.

[0046] The water level of a landslide-dammed lake is significantly affected by wind and waves. Wave rise and wind damming can cause the actual water level to temporarily exceed the static calculated value. If the warning water level does not reserve this buffer, it can easily lead to the risk of overtopping. Moreover, different risk levels have different requirements for safety redundancy, with high-risk scenarios requiring a larger safety margin. Traditional methods do not systematically quantify the impact of wind and waves and the safety margin, relying solely on empirical estimation, which can easily lead to insufficient buffering or overly conservative approaches. The model of this invention incorporates wave rise and wind damming height into the calculation, accurately covering water level fluctuations caused by the external environment. The safety margin is linked to the risk level, achieving scientific regulation of "high redundancy for high risk and moderate redundancy for low risk," avoiding resource waste. At the same time, considering the actual limitations of obtaining field data, two calculation methods are designed for different scenarios. Even when parameters are missing, a reasonable excess value can still be determined based on the risk level, ensuring the applicability of the model under complex field conditions and further improving the reliability and flexibility of the warning. This embodiment constructs a quantitative model for the early warning value of landslide dammed lakes, fully considering the impact of external environmental factors such as wind and waves on water levels, setting a scientific and safe buffer for the early warning water level, avoiding risk overflow caused by sudden wind and waves, and adapting to differences in data acquisition conditions.

[0047] Based on the parameter values ​​of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed, the subsidence of the landslide dam and the early warning super-high value of the landslide dammed lake are calculated using the quantitative model of the landslide dam subsidence and the quantitative model of the early warning super-high value of the landslide dammed lake, respectively. Then, these values ​​are substituted into the quantitative model of the early warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under various working conditions, and finally the early warning water level of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed is calculated.

[0048] More specifically, the present invention can be dynamically corrected during implementation, updating the time-varying function of the landslide dammed lake water level every 2 hours. f(R rise , t) and evacuation time T evac When the landslide dam deforms, the settlement of the landslide dam should be reassessed. S subs .

[0049] In this embodiment, key parameters are first calculated using a settlement model and an early warning super-high value model, then substituted into the early warning water level model for each working condition, and finally output accurate early warning water level, supporting dynamic correction: parameters are updated every 2 hours, and settlement is reassessed when the dam body deforms.

[0050] The risk of landslide-dammed lakes is dynamically evolving. The rate of water level rise, dam structure, and external environment all change over time. Traditional static estimation methods cannot respond to these changes in real time, easily leading to delayed or redundant early warnings. The comprehensive calculation model of this invention integrates dynamically changing subsidence and early warning elevation values ​​into the core calculation through sub-model linkage, enabling the early warning water level to reflect the evolution of risk in real time. A dynamic correction mechanism (updating parameters every 2 hours and reassessing when the dam deforms) further ensures that the model output is synchronized with the actual on-site conditions, avoiding early warning deviations caused by fixed parameters. Simultaneously, the model integrates scattered influencing factors and sub-models into a systematic calculation process, directly quantifying the output early warning water level without requiring secondary decision-making. This provides clear trigger thresholds for personnel evacuation and engineering operations, shortening the decision-making chain, improving emergency response speed, and truly realizing the shift from "experience-driven" to "model-driven." This embodiment achieves dynamic and accurate calculation of early warning water levels, establishing a linkage logic between "parameters-sub-models-overall model," solving the lag and subjectivity problems of traditional static experience estimation, and improving the efficiency of emergency decision-making.

[0051] Example 2 The architecture diagram of the system for determining the early warning water level in emergency response to landslide dammed lakes is as follows: Figure 2 As shown, it consists of a module for determining the evaluation factor set, a module for constructing a quantitative model of the warning water level of the landslide dam, a module for constructing a quantitative model of the subsidence of the landslide dam, a module for constructing a quantitative model of the warning high value of the landslide dam, and a module for calculating the warning water level of the landslide dam to be evaluated.

[0052] The assessment factor set determination module determines the assessment factor set for the warning water level of the landslide dam lake based on the type of landslide dam body. The assessment factor set includes the critical dam break water level, the elevation of the dam body pass, and the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel.

[0053] The module for constructing a quantitative model of the warning water level of a landslide dammed lake is based on the evaluation factor set of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake, combined with the subsidence of the landslide dam and the warning super-high value of the landslide dammed lake. Based on the requirements of landslide dammed lake emergency rescue practice, the warning conditions are divided, and a quantitative model of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under each warning condition is constructed.

[0054] The module for constructing a quantitative model of landslide dam subsidence is based on the height of the landslide dam and the subsidence coefficient of the landslide dam, and constructs a quantitative model of landslide dam subsidence based on the material composition of the landslide dam.

[0055] The module for constructing the quantitative model of the landslide dam warning value determines the safety margin of the warning water level of the landslide dam according to the risk level of the landslide dam. Based on the maximum wave run-up of the landslide dam, the wind-induced water level height of the landslide dam, and the safety margin of the warning water level of the landslide dam, and combined with the risk level of the landslide dam, a quantitative model of the landslide dam warning value of the landslide dam is constructed.

[0056] The module for calculating the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under assessment first calculates the landslide dam subsidence and the warning superelevation value using the quantitative model of the landslide dam subsidence and the quantitative model of the warning superelevation value of the landslide dammed lake, respectively, based on the parameter values ​​of the landslide dammed lake under assessment. Then, it substitutes these values ​​into the quantitative model of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under each working condition, and finally calculates the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under assessment.

[0057] The specific implementation methods of each module in this system are the same as those described in Example 1, and will not be repeated here.

[0058] Example 3 An electronic device is characterized in that it comprises: a memory and a processor, the memory and the processor being communicatively connected to each other, the memory storing computer instructions, and the processor executing the computer instructions to realize the method for determining the early warning water level of a landslide dammed lake as described in Embodiment 1 above, and the system for determining the early warning water level of a landslide dammed lake as described in Embodiment 2.

[0059] Example 4 A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes as described in Embodiment 1 above, and the system for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes as described in Embodiment 2.

[0060] Example 5 This invention is used to determine the emergency response warning water level for a certain landslide-dammed lake, as detailed below.

[0061] No defects were detected using methods such as ground-penetrating radar; the elevation of the landslide dam pass was obtained using methods such as UAV mapping. H crest=1102.3m; the emergency response did not consider drainage schemes such as diversion channels or spillways. Based on the assessment, the warning water level was calculated according to case 2 of the associated model.

[0062] Calculations show that the water level of the landslide dammed lake changes with time as f(Rrise,t) = 0.15 m / h, and the evacuation time Tevac = 4 h. Therefore... .

[0063] The landslide height is approximately 30m. According to the quantitative model of landslide dam settlement, when the landslide height does not exceed 100m, the settlement cannot be ignored. The landslide dam's material composition is mainly loose sand, with an η value of 2.5%. The landslide dam height is approximately... H dam =15m, the calculated settlement of the landslide dam body. S subs =15×2.5%=0.375m.

[0064] Analysis indicates the landslide dammed lake risk level is Level IV. However, obtaining the lake's surface wind speed and water length in a short period is difficult. Based on the landslide dammed lake early warning ultra-high quantification model, working condition 2, the corresponding ultra-high warning value is calculated. S warn =0.5m.

[0065] Based on the above calculations, we obtain: H warn =1102.3-0.6-0.375-0.5=1100.825m≈1100.83m.

[0066] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code. The solutions in the embodiments of the present invention can be implemented in various computer languages, such as object-oriented programming languages ​​like Java, C++, Python, and interpreted scripting languages ​​like JavaScript.

[0067] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, electronic devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing electronic device to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing electronic device, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0068] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing electronic device to operate in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0069] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing electronic device to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable electronic device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable electronic device for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0070] Although preferred embodiments of the invention have been described, those skilled in the art, upon learning the basic inventive concept, can make other changes and modifications to these embodiments. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including both the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications falling within the scope of the invention.

[0071] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various modifications and variations to this invention without departing from its spirit and scope. Therefore, if these modifications and variations fall within the scope of the claims of this invention and their equivalents, this invention also intends to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A method for determining an early warning water level for emergency disposal of a dammed lake, characterized in that, include: Based on the type of landslide dam, an assessment factor set for the early warning water level of the landslide dam is constructed. The assessment factor set includes the critical dam break water level, the elevation of the dam pass, and the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel. Based on the assessment factor set of the landslide dammed lake warning water level, combined with the landslide dam subsidence and the landslide dammed lake warning super-high value, the warning conditions are divided according to the requirements of landslide dammed lake emergency rescue practice, and a quantitative model of the landslide dammed lake warning water level under each condition is constructed. Based on the height of the landslide dam and the subsidence coefficient of the landslide dam, a quantitative model of the subsidence of the landslide dam based on the material composition of the landslide dam is constructed. Based on the risk level of the landslide dammed lake, the safety margin of the warning water level is determined sequentially. Based on the maximum wave run-up of the landslide dammed lake, the wind-induced water level height of the landslide dammed lake, and the safety margin of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake, and combined with the risk level of the landslide dammed lake, a quantitative model of the ultra-high value of the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is constructed. Based on the parameter values ​​of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed, the subsidence of the landslide dam and the early warning super-high value of the landslide dammed lake are calculated using the quantitative model of the landslide dam subsidence and the quantitative model of the early warning super-high value of the landslide dammed lake, respectively. Then, these values ​​are substituted into the quantitative model of the early warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under various working conditions, and finally the early warning water level of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed is calculated.

2. The method for determining the emergency treatment early warning water level of a dammed lake according to claim 1, characterized in that: The set of evaluation factors for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is shown in the following formula: F={H fail ，H crest ，R rise ，T evac ，S subs ，S warn ，H drain } （1）， in, H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; R rise The rate of rise of the reservoir water level; T evac This is the time for workers to evacuate; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn For warning of excessively high values; H drain This refers to the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel.

3. The method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes according to claim 2, characterized in that: The quantitative model for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under each warning condition is shown in the following formula: （2）， in, H warn The warning water level for the landslide-dammed lake; H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; H drain The elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel; f(R rise ,t) Let be the function of the rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake as a function of time, and its physical meaning is the instantaneous rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake reservoir at a certain moment t; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn Warning for extremely high values; Warning condition 1: The landslide dam is a defective landslide dam, which may collapse or seep failure when the water level rises, leading to overall instability. The critical dam-break water level should be determined based on the distribution elevation of the defects. H fail The warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 1; warning condition 2: the landslide body has the risk of overtopping, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 2; warning condition 3: the landslide body adopts intervention measures including diversion channels or spillways, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 3; when the landslide body of the landslide dammed lake has two or more of the above conditions, the minimum value calculated under each condition is taken as the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake.

4. The method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes according to claim 3, characterized in that: The quantitative model for the subsidence of the landslide dam is shown in the following formula: （3）， in, H dam η represents the height of the landslide dam. When the landslide height exceeds 100m, the landslide dam is classified as a high-level landslide collapse dam, which is relatively dense, and its subsidence during the emergency response phase can be ignored. η is the subsidence coefficient, which is determined according to the material composition of the landslide dam: dense gravelly soil: η=1%; loose sandy soil: η=2.5%; clay mixed with gravel: η=3%. The subsidence coefficients for other types of material compositions are determined with reference to the above values.

5. The method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes according to claim 4, characterized in that: The quantitative model for the extremely high value of the landslide dammed lake early warning is shown in the following formula: （4）， in, R wave This represents the highest wave height recorded at the landslide dammed lake. H wind The height of the landslide dammed lake due to wind obstruction of the water surface; Case 1: When calculating R wave and H wind Provided that the required wind speed and water length of the landslide-dammed lake are available, the warning value for the highest elevation is calculated according to the formula corresponding to Case 1; Case 2: When calculating R wave and H wind When the required wind speed and water length of the landslide dammed lake are difficult to obtain, the warning value of the extreme wind speed shall be determined according to the formula corresponding to Case 2. H margin The formula for calculating the safety margin of the warning water level for landslide dammed lakes is as follows: （5）。 6. A system for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes, characterized in that: It includes modules for determining the evaluation factor set, constructing a quantitative model for the warning water level of the landslide dam, constructing a quantitative model for the subsidence of the landslide dam, constructing a quantitative model for the warning high value of the landslide dam, and calculating the warning water level of the landslide dam to be evaluated. The assessment factor set determination module determines the assessment factor set for the warning water level of the landslide dam lake based on the type of landslide dam body. The assessment factor set includes the critical dam break water level, the elevation of the dam body pass, and the elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel. The module for constructing the quantitative model of the landslide dammed lake warning water level, based on the evaluation factor set of the landslide dammed lake warning water level, combined with the landslide dam subsidence and the landslide dammed lake warning super-high value, divides the warning conditions based on the requirements of landslide dammed lake emergency rescue practice, and constructs a quantitative model of the landslide dammed lake warning water level under each warning condition. The module for constructing the quantitative model of landslide dam subsidence amount constructs a quantitative model of landslide dam subsidence amount based on the height of the landslide dam and the subsidence coefficient of the landslide dam. The construction module of the quantitative model for the extremely high value of the landslide dam warning determines the safety margin of the landslide dam warning water level according to the risk level of the landslide dam. Based on the maximum wave run-up of the landslide dam, the wind-induced water level height of the landslide dam, and the safety margin of the landslide dam warning water level, and combined with the risk level of the landslide dam, a quantitative model for the extremely high value of the landslide dam warning is constructed. The warning water level calculation module for the landslide dammed lake to be assessed first calculates the landslide dammed lake subsidence and warning superelevation value using the quantitative model of landslide dammed lake subsidence and the quantitative model of landslide dammed lake warning superelevation value, respectively, based on the parameter values ​​of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed. Then, it substitutes these values ​​into the quantitative model of landslide dammed lake warning water level under each working condition, and finally calculates the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake to be assessed.

7. The system for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes according to claim 6, characterized in that: The set of evaluation factors for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is shown in the following formula: F={H fail ，H crest ，R rise ，T evac ，S subs ，S warn ，H drain } （1）， in, H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; R rise The rate of rise of the reservoir water level; T evac This is the time for workers to evacuate; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn For warning of excessively high values; H drain The elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel; The quantitative model for the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake under each warning condition is shown in the following formula: （2）， in, H warn The warning water level for the landslide-dammed lake; H fail This is the critical dam break water level; H crest The elevation of the pass of the landslide dam; H drain The elevation of the bottom of the diversion channel; f(R rise ,t) Let be the function of the rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake as a function of time, and its physical meaning is the instantaneous rate of rise of the water level of the landslide dammed lake reservoir at a certain moment t; S subs This refers to the subsidence of the landslide dam. S warn Warning for extremely high values; Warning condition 1: The landslide dam is a defective landslide dam, which may collapse or seep failure when the water level rises, leading to overall instability. The critical dam-break water level should be determined based on the distribution elevation of the defects. H fail The warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 1; warning condition 2: the landslide body has the risk of overtopping, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 2; warning condition 3: the landslide body adopts intervention measures including diversion channels or spillways, and the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake is calculated according to the formula corresponding to condition 3; when the landslide body of the landslide dammed lake has two or more of the above conditions, the minimum value calculated under each condition is taken as the warning water level of the landslide dammed lake.

8. The system for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes according to claim 7, characterized in that: The quantitative model for the subsidence of the landslide dam is shown in the following formula: （3）， in, H dam η represents the height of the landslide dam. When the landslide height exceeds 100m, the landslide dam is classified as a high-level landslide collapse dam, which is relatively dense, and its subsidence during the emergency response phase can be ignored. η is the subsidence coefficient, which is determined based on the material composition of the landslide dam: dense gravelly soil: η = 1%; loose sandy soil: η = 2.5%; clay mixed with gravel: η = 3%. The subsidence coefficients for other types of material compositions are determined with reference to the above values. The quantitative model for the extremely high value of the landslide dammed lake early warning is shown in the following formula: （4）， in, R wave This represents the highest wave height recorded at the landslide dammed lake. H wind The height of the landslide dammed lake due to wind obstruction of the water surface; Case 1: When calculating R wave and H wind Provided that the required wind speed and water length of the landslide-dammed lake are available, the warning value for the highest elevation is calculated according to the formula corresponding to Case 1; Case 2: When calculating R wave and H wind When the required wind speed and water length of the landslide dammed lake are difficult to obtain, the warning value of the extreme wind speed shall be determined according to the formula corresponding to Case 2. H margin The formula for calculating the safety margin of the warning water level for landslide dammed lakes is as follows: （5）。 9. An electronic device, characterized in that, include: The system includes a memory and a processor, which are interconnected. The memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes these computer instructions to implement the method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes as described in any one of claims 1-5.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the method for determining the early warning water level for emergency response to landslide dammed lakes as described in any one of claims 1-5.

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