Typhoon-induced chemical accident risk prevention method and system, computer device and readable storage medium

Abstract

The application relates to a typhoon-induced chemical industry accident risk prevention method, system, computer device and readable storage medium. The method comprises the following steps: generating a typhoon-induced disaster scenario library based on historical typhoon-induced chemical industry accident case data, park feature information of a target chemical industry park and historical typhoon information; combining three-dimensional point cloud data, equipment data of a target equipment and the typhoon-induced disaster scenario library to construct an equipment structure response model and determine an equipment failure probability; determining an accident occurrence frequency of each typhoon-induced disaster scenario by adopting an event tree analysis method based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability and the typhoon-induced disaster scenario library; performing three-dimensional simulation of accident consequences based on the typhoon-induced disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, and performing risk calculation based on the accident occurrence frequency and the simulation result of the three-dimensional simulation of accident consequences to determine a risk prevention strategy. The technical scheme can realize accurate evaluation and precise prevention of typhoon-induced chemical industry accident risks.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of disaster prevention technology, and in particular to a risk protection method, system, computer equipment, and readable storage medium for chemical accidents caused by typhoons. Background Technology

[0002] Chemical industrial parks are areas where the production, storage, and transportation of hazardous chemicals are highly concentrated, typically containing high-value targets such as storage tanks, reactors, pipelines, and loading and unloading facilities. Typhoons, as a common extreme natural disaster in coastal areas, with their strong winds, torrential rains, and storm surges, can easily cause equipment failures and chemical safety risks within coastal chemical industrial parks due to the combined effects of these factors.

[0003] In existing technologies, typhoon risk protection in chemical industrial parks typically relies on conventional typhoon warnings, equipment design specifications, or traditional quantitative risk assessments. However, these methods are not accurate enough in determining the failure criteria of chemical equipment under strong winds and the coupling effects of multiple physical fields, and they are also difficult to dynamically reflect the evolution of accident consequences and emergency resource needs.

[0004] There is currently no effective solution for accurately assessing the risks of chemical accidents caused by typhoons and taking protective measures in related technologies. Summary of the Invention

[0005] Therefore, it is necessary to provide a risk protection method, system, computer equipment, and readable storage medium for typhoon-induced chemical accidents that can accurately assess and protect against such accidents.

[0006] Firstly, this application provides a risk protection method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons, including:

[0007] Acquire historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, target chemical industrial park characteristic information, and historical typhoon information of the target chemical industrial park; and generate a typhoon-type disaster scenario library applicable to the target chemical industrial park based on the chemical accident case data, the park characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information.

[0008] Acquire 3D point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and equipment data of the target equipment in the target chemical industrial park. Based on the 3D point cloud data, the equipment data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library, construct the equipment structure response model of the target equipment, and determine the equipment failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon disaster scenarios based on the equipment structure response model.

[0009] Based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario database, the event tree analysis method is used to determine the accident frequency of each typhoon-related disaster scenario.

[0010] Based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences is performed to obtain the three-dimensional numerical simulation results under each of the typhoon-type disaster scenarios.

[0011] Risk calculations are performed based on the frequency of accidents in each of the aforementioned typhoon-induced disaster scenarios and the corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results, and risk protection strategies are determined based on the risk calculation results.

[0012] In one embodiment, generating a typhoon-related disaster scenario library suitable for the target chemical industrial park based on the chemical accident case data, the park's characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information includes:

[0013] Accident characteristic parameters are extracted from the chemical accident case data, and an accident case database is established based on the accident characteristic parameters; wherein, the accident characteristic parameters include typhoon characteristic information, equipment failure information, accident evolution information, and accident consequence information;

[0014] The accident case database was analyzed to obtain the accident risk patterns between the typhoon characteristic information, the equipment failure information, the accident evolution information, and the accident consequence information;

[0015] Based on the accident risk patterns, the park's characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information, a typhoon-related disaster scenario library suitable for the target chemical industrial park is generated.

[0016] In one embodiment, constructing the equipment structure response model of the target equipment based on the 3D point cloud data, the equipment data, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database includes:

[0017] A three-dimensional geometric model of the target chemical industrial park is constructed based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, and a structural finite element sub-model of the target equipment is constructed based on the equipment data.

[0018] Based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional geometric model, a typhoon wind field sub-model is established and solved to obtain the surface wind pressure distribution of the target equipment in each of the typhoon-type disaster scenarios.

[0019] The surface wind pressure distribution is mapped to the corresponding structural finite element sub-model to obtain the equipment structural response model of the target equipment under each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios.

[0020] In one embodiment, determining the accident frequency of each typhoon-related disaster scenario using event tree analysis based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database includes:

[0021] Based on the historical typhoon information, the baseline frequency of typhoon disaster occurrence for each of the aforementioned typhoon-caused scenarios is determined.

[0022] Event tree analysis was used to determine the probability of accident evolution induced by the failure of the target equipment under each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios.

[0023] Based on the typhoon disaster occurrence baseline frequency, the equipment failure probability, and the accident evolution probability, the accident occurrence frequency of each typhoon-induced disaster scenario is determined.

[0024] In one embodiment, the risk calculation based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results under each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios includes:

[0025] Based on the three-dimensional numerical simulation results and the three-dimensional point cloud data corresponding to each of the typhoon-caused disaster scenarios, the accident consequence characteristic values ​​at different elevation layers and different horizontal coordinate positions of the target chemical industrial park under each of the typhoon-caused disaster scenarios are determined.

[0026] Extreme values ​​of accident consequence feature values ​​corresponding to multiple elevation layers at the same horizontal coordinate position are extracted to obtain the extreme values ​​of accident consequences at the horizontal coordinate position, and a two-dimensional extreme value field is formed based on the multiple extreme values ​​of accident consequences at the horizontal coordinate positions.

[0027] The two-dimensional extreme field is mapped onto the two-dimensional risk grid of the target chemical industrial park to obtain the accident consequence grid value corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid;

[0028] Based on the accident consequence grid value and the pre-stored personnel exposure time model, the probability of personnel death corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid in each of the typhoon disaster scenarios is determined.

[0029] Calculate the individual risk value based on the frequency of the accident and the probability of death.

[0030] Based on the probability of death, the number of deaths corresponding to each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios is determined, and based on the number of deaths and the frequency of the accident, the social risk value is calculated.

[0031] In one embodiment, the accidents occurring in each of the typhoon-related disaster scenarios include at least one of diffusion, fire, and explosion;

[0032] The three-dimensional simulation of accident consequences based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data includes:

[0033] When diffusion occurs, based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the vapor cloud diffusion process is performed to obtain the vapor cloud diffusion range.

[0034] When a fire occurs, based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences is performed on the flame combustion process to obtain the flame tilt angle and heat radiation intensity distribution.

[0035] When an explosion occurs, based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the explosion impact process is performed to obtain the explosion overpressure distribution.

[0036] In one embodiment, the risk protection method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons further includes:

[0037] Acquire real-time typhoon monitoring data and perform feature matching between the real-time typhoon monitoring data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database;

[0038] When the matching degree between the real-time typhoon monitoring data and any typhoon-related disaster scenario in the typhoon-type disaster scenario database meets the preset matching conditions, the typhoon-related disaster scenario is determined as the target disaster scenario, and the risk protection strategy corresponding to the target disaster scenario is invoked.

[0039] Secondly, this application provides a risk protection system for chemical accidents caused by typhoons, the system comprising:

[0040] The scenario library construction module is used to acquire historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park feature information of the target chemical park, and historical typhoon information of the target chemical park, and generate a typhoon-induced disaster scenario library applicable to the target chemical park based on the chemical accident case data, the park feature information, and the historical typhoon information.

[0041] The multiphysics simulation module is used to acquire the three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and the equipment data of the target equipment in the target chemical industrial park, and to construct the equipment structure response model of the target equipment based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, the equipment data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library.

[0042] The risk assessment module is used to determine the probability of equipment failure of the target equipment under various typhoon-related disaster scenarios based on the equipment structural response model; to determine the accident frequency of each typhoon-related disaster scenario using event tree analysis based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library; to perform 3D simulation of accident consequences based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the 3D point cloud data to obtain 3D numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario; and to perform risk calculation based on the accident frequency of each typhoon-related disaster scenario and the corresponding 3D numerical simulation results.

[0043] The risk protection strategy formulation module is used to determine risk protection strategies based on the risk calculation results.

[0044] Thirdly, this application provides a computer device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the computer program to perform the following steps:

[0045] This process involves acquiring historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park characteristic information of the target chemical industrial park, and historical typhoon information for the target chemical industrial park. Based on these data, a typhoon-related disaster scenario library is generated for the target chemical industrial park. Three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and equipment data of target equipment within the park are acquired. Based on this data, the equipment data, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario library, an equipment structure response model for the target equipment is constructed. The failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon-related disaster scenarios is determined based on this model. Event tree analysis is used to determine the accident occurrence frequency for each typhoon-related disaster scenario based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario library. Three-dimensional simulations of accident consequences are performed using the typhoon-related disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario. Risk calculations are performed based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario, and risk protection strategies are determined based on the risk calculation results.

[0046] Fourthly, this application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, performs the following steps:

[0047] This process involves acquiring historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park characteristic information of the target chemical industrial park, and historical typhoon information for the target chemical industrial park. Based on these data, a typhoon-related disaster scenario library is generated for the target chemical industrial park. Three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and equipment data of target equipment within the park are acquired. Based on this data, the equipment data, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario library, an equipment structure response model for the target equipment is constructed. The failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon-related disaster scenarios is determined based on this model. Event tree analysis is used to determine the accident occurrence frequency for each typhoon-related disaster scenario based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario library. Three-dimensional simulations of accident consequences are performed using the typhoon-related disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario. Risk calculations are performed based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario, and risk protection strategies are determined based on the risk calculation results.

[0048] The aforementioned risk protection methods, systems, computer equipment, and readable storage media for chemical accidents caused by typhoons generate a typhoon-type disaster scenario library by combining chemical accident case data, park characteristic information, and historical typhoon information. Then, they construct equipment structural response models by combining 3D point cloud data and equipment data to determine the probability of equipment failure. Finally, they use event tree analysis to calculate the frequency of accident occurrence and combine the 3D simulation results of accident consequences to perform risk calculations, thereby achieving accurate assessment and precise protection against the risks of chemical accidents caused by typhoons. Attached Figure Description

[0049] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application or related technologies, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments of this application or related technologies will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0050] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating a risk prevention method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons in one embodiment;

[0051] Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating a risk prevention method for a chemical accident caused by a typhoon, as shown in an example embodiment.

[0052] Figure 3 This is a structural block diagram of a risk protection system for chemical accidents caused by typhoons, as shown in one embodiment.

[0053] Figure 4 This is an internal structural diagram of a computer device in an example embodiment. Detailed Implementation

[0054] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this application clearer, the following detailed description is provided in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and not intended to limit the scope of this application.

[0055] In one embodiment, such as Figure 1 As shown, a risk prevention method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons is provided, the method comprising the following steps:

[0056] Step 102: Obtain historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park characteristic information of the target chemical industrial park, and historical typhoon information of the target chemical industrial park; and generate a typhoon-type disaster scenario library applicable to the target chemical industrial park based on the chemical accident case data, the park characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information.

[0057] Optionally, historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data can be obtained from domestic and international disaster databases. These disaster databases include, but are not limited to, the MARS database, the ARIA database, the EM-DAT database, and other databases that record chemical accidents, natural disasters, or natural disaster-induced technical accidents.

[0058] Optionally, the park's characteristic information includes its industrial structure and geographical features.

[0059] Optionally, historical typhoon information includes the typhoon recurrence interval, movement path, and intensity level. The typhoon recurrence interval includes four recurrence intervals: 5 years, 10 years, 50 years, and 100 years; the movement path includes three types: landfall, transit, and nearshore; and the intensity level includes five levels: tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, and super typhoon.

[0060] Step 104: Obtain the three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and the equipment data of the target equipment in the target chemical industrial park. Based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, the equipment data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library, construct the equipment structure response model of the target equipment, and determine the equipment failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon disaster scenarios based on the equipment structure response model.

[0061] Optionally, UAV oblique photography and laser scanning technology can be used to acquire three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and equipment data of the target equipment in the target chemical industrial park.

[0062] Optionally, the target equipment includes at least one of the following: storage tank equipment, tower / reactor equipment, pipeline system equipment, and critical utility equipment; wherein, storage tank equipment includes, but is not limited to, fixed roof tanks, floating roof tanks, and spherical tanks; pipeline system equipment includes, but is not limited to, overhead pipelines and buried pipelines; and critical utility equipment includes, but is not limited to, substations and fire pump stations.

[0063] Optionally, determining the equipment failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon-induced disaster scenarios based on the equipment structural response model includes determining the structural response parameters of the target equipment under various typhoon-induced disaster scenarios based on the equipment structural response model, and determining the equipment failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon-induced disaster scenarios based on the structural response parameters. After determining the structural response parameters of the target equipment under various typhoon-induced disaster scenarios, the equipment failure modes and equipment failure criteria of the target equipment under various typhoon-induced disaster scenarios can also be determined, and a mapping relationship between wind speed, structural response parameters, and equipment failure modes can be constructed. The equipment failure modes include, but are not limited to, tank wall buckling, floating roof detachment, anchoring system failure, connecting pipe flange leakage, and tower wind-induced fatigue.

[0064] Step 106: Based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario database, the event tree analysis method is used to determine the accident frequency of each typhoon-related disaster scenario.

[0065] Step 108: Perform a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain the three-dimensional numerical simulation results under each typhoon-type disaster scenario.

[0066] Step 110: Perform risk calculation based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results under each of the typhoon disaster scenarios, and determine risk protection strategies based on the risk calculation results.

[0067] Optionally, based on the risk calculation results and in conjunction with the safety management regulations for chemical industrial parks and the national typhoon warning signal classification standards, the target chemical industrial park can be divided into four levels of control areas: red high-risk area, orange relatively high-risk area, yellow general risk area, and blue low-risk area. Corresponding prevention and control measures, responsible entities, and emergency response requirements can be determined for the risks of each level of control area.

[0068] The aforementioned risk prevention methods for chemical accidents caused by typhoons involve generating a typhoon-type disaster scenario database by combining chemical accident case data, park characteristic information, and historical typhoon information, and constructing an equipment structure response model by combining 3D point cloud data and equipment data to determine the probability of equipment failure. Then, the event tree analysis method is used to calculate the frequency of accident occurrence, and risk calculation is performed by combining the 3D simulation results of accident consequences, so as to achieve accurate assessment and precise protection against the risk of chemical accidents caused by typhoons.

[0069] In one embodiment, generating a typhoon-induced disaster scenario library suitable for the target chemical industrial park based on the chemical accident case data, the park's characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information includes: extracting accident characteristic parameters from the chemical accident case data and establishing an accident case database based on the accident characteristic parameters; wherein, the accident characteristic parameters include typhoon characteristic information, equipment failure information, accident evolution information, and accident consequence information; analyzing the accident case database to obtain the accident risk patterns between the typhoon characteristic information and the equipment failure information, the accident evolution information, and the accident consequence information; and generating a typhoon-induced disaster scenario library suitable for the target chemical industrial park based on the accident risk patterns, the park's characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information.

[0070] Optionally, the accident characteristic parameters may also include the type of causative factor and the type of accident.

[0071] Optionally, typhoon characteristic information includes typhoon intensity parameters, which include wind speed, air pressure, and rainfall. Accident evolution information includes the accident evolution path. Accident consequence information includes the severity of the accident consequences. Equipment failure information includes equipment failure modes. Disaster-causing factor types include strong winds, torrential rain, and storm surge.

[0072] Optionally, establishing an accident case database based on the accident characteristic parameters includes establishing an accident case database based on typhoon intensity parameters, disaster-causing factor types, equipment failure modes, accident types, accident evolution paths, and the severity of accident consequences.

[0073] Optionally, accident characteristic parameters may also include the time and location of the accident. It is understood that these parameters can be obtained from an accident case database according to the database's requirements.

[0074] Optionally, statistical analysis and / or machine learning methods can be used to analyze the accident case database to extract the core features and occurrence patterns of each accident case in the database.

[0075] This embodiment enables the support of case patterns in the typhoon-type disaster scenario database and the adaptation and generation of the typhoon-type disaster scenario database for the target chemical industrial park.

[0076] In one example embodiment, statistical analysis and / or machine learning methods were used to analyze the accident case database. It was found that when the typhoon intensity was ≥ level 12, the failure rate of storage tank equipment reached 68%; the main failure modes of floating roof tanks were floating roof detachment and anchoring system failure, of which floating roof detachment accounted for 42% and anchoring system failure accounted for 35%; the 6 hours after the typhoon made landfall was the peak period for accidents.

[0077] In one embodiment, constructing the equipment structure response model of the target equipment based on the 3D point cloud data, the equipment data, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library includes: constructing a 3D geometric model of the target chemical industrial park based on the 3D point cloud data, and constructing a corresponding structural finite element sub-model of the target equipment based on the equipment data; establishing and solving a typhoon wind field sub-model based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the 3D geometric model to obtain the surface wind pressure distribution of the target equipment in each of the typhoon-type disaster scenarios; and mapping the surface wind pressure distribution to the corresponding structural finite element sub-model to obtain the equipment structure response model of the target equipment in each of the typhoon-type disaster scenarios.

[0078] Optionally, after acquiring the three-dimensional point cloud data, and before constructing the three-dimensional geometric model of the target chemical industrial park based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, the three-dimensional point cloud data may be further subjected to denoising, registration, and meshing processing.

[0079] Optionally, constructing a structural finite element sub-model corresponding to the target device based on the device data includes: determining the type of the target device, determining the corresponding modeling method according to the type, and constructing a structural finite element sub-model corresponding to the target device based on the device data and according to the corresponding modeling method.

[0080] Optionally, the equipment data includes, but is not limited to, material properties and the weight of the target equipment. Material properties may include parameters such as elastic modulus, Poisson's ratio, density, and yield strength. When constructing the structural finite element sub-model corresponding to the target equipment, for equipment susceptible to corrosion, a reduction in material strength due to corrosion allowance can be considered, with a reduction factor ranging from 0.8 to 0.9. Fixed constraints are used at the bottom of storage tank equipment, elastic constraints are used for pipeline systems, and fixed supports are used at the bottom of tower / reactor equipment.

[0081] Optionally, establishing and solving the typhoon wind field sub-model based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional geometric model includes: extracting typhoon characteristic parameters corresponding to each typhoon disaster scenario from the typhoon-type disaster scenario library. The typhoon characteristic parameters include average wind speed, gust coefficient, wind direction angle, turbulence intensity, and pressure gradient corresponding to different typhoon recurrence periods, movement paths, and intensity levels. Typhoon characteristic parameters are used as the input set of boundary conditions for the typhoon wind field sub-model. The computational domain of the typhoon wind field sub-model is established based on a three-dimensional geometric model. Boundary conditions for the typhoon wind field sub-model are set: an exponential law wind speed profile is used for the inlet boundary, a free outflow boundary for the outlet, and a no-slip wall boundary for the ground surface. After establishing the computational domain and setting the boundary conditions, the typhoon wind field sub-model is established, which can be implemented using the SST k-ω turbulence model. The SIMPLE algorithm is used to solve the typhoon wind field sub-model, with a second-order upwind scheme for the pressure term and a second-order central difference scheme for the momentum term, yielding the surface wind pressure distribution of the target equipment in each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios. The formula for calculating the inlet boundary wind speed profile is as follows:

[0082]

[0083] in, Indicates height Entrance wind speed at the location This represents the average wind speed at a height of 10m. This represents the surface roughness index. For coastal chemical industrial parks, It can be between 0.16 and 0.22.

[0084] Optionally, when establishing the computational domain of the typhoon wind field sub-model, the boundary of the target chemical industrial park is used as a reference, and the computational domain is expanded to 5 times the size of the park in the horizontal direction; in the vertical direction, the height of the computational domain is set to 10 times the height of the tallest equipment in the target equipment.

[0085] Optionally, after determining the surface wind pressure distribution of the target equipment in each of the aforementioned typhoon-induced disaster scenarios, a fluid-structure interaction (FSI) solution method is selected based on the characteristics of the target equipment to obtain the equipment structural response model under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario. Two-way FSI is used for highly flexible structures such as storage tanks and long-span pipelines; one-way FSI is used for structures with high stiffness such as towers and reactors.

[0086] Optionally, the ANSYS System Coupling module can be used to achieve bidirectional data transfer, and the calculation stops when the rate of change of the maximum structural deformation is less than a first change threshold. It is understood that the first change threshold can be set according to specific requirements.

[0087] Optionally, when mapping the surface wind pressure distribution to the corresponding structural finite element sub-model, it is necessary to consider both the equipment's own weight and the weight of the medium.

[0088] Optionally, wind tunnel test data can be used to calibrate the typhoon wind field sub-model, and the equipment structure response model of the target equipment can be verified based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library.

[0089] This embodiment enables refined modeling of the structural response of target equipment under typhoon-induced disaster scenarios.

[0090] In one example embodiment, UAV oblique photography and laser scanning technology are used to acquire three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park's terrain, buildings, and target equipment. A three-dimensional geometric model of the target chemical industrial park, including 127 storage tanks, 36 towers, and 85km of pipelines, is constructed, with the overall mesh accuracy controlled within 0.5-2m.

[0091] In one example embodiment, individual devices within the target equipment are modeled in detail. Tank-type equipment uses Shell181 shell elements, tower / reactor-type equipment uses a hybrid model of Beam188 beam elements and Shell181 shell elements, and pipeline system-type equipment uses Pipe288 pipe elements. Non-critical structures are geometrically simplified by ignoring details such as doors, windows, and railings, keeping the total number of model elements below 5 million.

[0092] In one example embodiment, ANSYS Workbench and FLUENT software were used to establish a typhoon wind field sub-model and a structural response model of the target equipment under various typhoon-induced disaster scenarios. For a 100,000 m³ external floating roof crude oil storage tank, the tank wall wind pressure distribution and structural deformation under different wind speeds were simulated. The results showed that when the wind speed reached 42 m / s, the maximum stress on the tank wall exceeded the material yield strength, resulting in buckling failure; when the wind speed reached 51 m / s, the anchoring system fractured. For three adjacent 100,000 m³ external floating roof crude oil storage tanks within the park, a two-way fluid-structure interaction simulation was used to model their wind-induced response. The results showed that the maximum stress on the wall of the middle tank was reduced by 18% compared to an isolated tank due to the wind shielding effect of the tanks on both sides; while the maximum stress on the wall of the downstream tank was increased by 22% compared to an isolated tank due to the wake effect of the upstream tank. This verified the necessity of establishing structural response models of the target equipment under various typhoon-induced disaster scenarios.

[0093] In one embodiment, determining the accident occurrence frequency of each typhoon-induced disaster scenario using event tree analysis based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database includes: determining the baseline frequency of typhoon disaster occurrence for each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the historical typhoon information; determining the accident evolution probability induced by the failure of the target equipment in each typhoon-induced disaster scenario using event tree analysis; and determining the accident occurrence frequency of each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the baseline frequency of typhoon disaster occurrence, the equipment failure probability, and the accident evolution probability.

[0094] Optionally, determining the probability of accident evolution induced by the failure of the target equipment under each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios using event tree analysis includes: using event tree analysis and Bayesian network methods to determine the probability of accident evolution induced by the failure of the target equipment under each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios.

[0095] Alternatively, event tree analysis and Bayesian network methods can be used to identify key risk nodes in order to determine blocking measures.

[0096] This embodiment enables chain-based quantitative calculation of the frequency of accidents in typhoon-related disaster scenarios.

[0097] In one example embodiment, based on a baseline frequency of 0.02 typhoons per year (a 50-year return period), and considering the equipment failure probabilities of 0.06 for storage tanks, 0.03 for towers / reactors, 0.02 for pipeline systems, and 0.01 for critical utilities, event tree analysis is used to calculate the frequency of hazardous chemical leaks in each typhoon-related disaster scenario within the target chemical industrial park under a 50-year return period typhoon. The frequency of fire and explosion accidents is [number] per year. The frequency of toxic substance diffusion accidents is [number] per year. / Year.

[0098] In one embodiment, the risk calculation based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario includes: determining the accident consequence feature values ​​at different elevation layers and different horizontal coordinate positions of the target chemical industrial park under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the three-dimensional numerical simulation results and the three-dimensional point cloud data; extracting extreme values ​​of the accident consequence feature values ​​corresponding to multiple elevation layers at the same horizontal coordinate position to obtain the accident consequence extreme values ​​at the horizontal coordinate positions, and forming a two-dimensional extreme value field based on the accident consequence extreme values ​​at multiple horizontal coordinate positions; mapping the two-dimensional extreme value field to a two-dimensional risk grid of the target chemical industrial park to obtain the accident consequence grid value corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid; determining the probability of death of personnel corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the accident consequence grid value and a pre-stored personnel exposure time model; calculating an individual risk value based on the accident occurrence frequency and the probability of death of personnel; determining the number of deaths corresponding to each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the probability of death of personnel, and calculating a social risk value based on the number of deaths and the accident occurrence frequency.

[0099] The formula for calculating the individual risk value is as follows:

[0100]

[0101] This represents the individual risk of a two-dimensional grid cell at the horizontal coordinate (x, y), expressed in times per year. The first in the typhoon-type disaster scenario database The frequency of accidents in each typhoon-type disaster scenario, expressed in times per year; The first in the typhoon-type disaster scenario database The probability of death at the horizontal coordinate (x, y) in a typhoon-type disaster scenario.

[0102] The formula for calculating the social risk value is as follows:

[0103]

[0104] The first in the typhoon-type disaster scenario database The number of deaths corresponding to each typhoon-type disaster scenario; The social risk value is the cumulative frequency of N or more deaths caused by all typhoon-related disaster scenarios in the typhoon-related disaster scenario database.

[0105] No. The number of deaths corresponding to each typhoon-type disaster scenario The calculation formula is as follows:

[0106]

[0107] For the first The impact range corresponding to each typhoon-type disaster scenario; The determination method is as follows: based on the park's personnel scheduling data and the personnel density statistics of office areas, production areas, or auxiliary areas, the number of park personnel is allocated to each two-dimensional risk grid cell in the two-dimensional risk grid, thus obtaining the average number of personnel in each two-dimensional risk grid cell. .

[0108] Optionally, the social risk value can be represented by an FN curve. The FN curve is plotted with the number of deaths on the horizontal axis and the social risk value on the vertical axis. The curve is then compared with the acceptable risk standard line to determine the social risk level of the target chemical industrial park.

[0109] Optionally, a two-dimensional personal risk isosurface can be determined based on the individual risk value, which can be used for the overall risk classification of the target park and the planning of the planar evacuation routes.

[0110] Optionally, the specific steps for forming a two-dimensional extreme value field are as follows: Based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, determine the three-dimensional spatial range of the target chemical industrial park, and combine the three-dimensional numerical simulation results corresponding to various typhoon disaster scenarios. Divide the three-dimensional space of the target chemical industrial park into multiple equidistant elevation layers in the vertical direction with a preset layer spacing. The maximum height of the elevation layer can be comprehensively determined based on the height of the main equipment, the height of personnel activities, and the height that the accident consequences may affect in the target chemical industrial park. Use a traversal algorithm to extract the accident consequence feature values ​​at different horizontal coordinate positions in each elevation layer, and complete the extraction of accident consequence feature values ​​for all elevation layers. Take the maximum value of all elevation layer feature values ​​at the same horizontal coordinate position to obtain the extreme value of the accident consequences at that horizontal coordinate position, so as to eliminate the problem of underestimation of vertical risk. Based on the extreme values ​​of the accident consequences at multiple horizontal coordinate positions, form a two-dimensional extreme value field covering the entire target chemical industrial park.

[0111] Optionally, mapping the two-dimensional extreme field to a two-dimensional risk grid of the target chemical industrial park to obtain the accident consequence grid value corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid includes: pre-dividing a two-dimensional risk grid within the planar area of ​​the target chemical industrial park, wherein the two-dimensional risk grid consists of multiple two-dimensional risk grid cells; obtaining the interpolated consequence value of the two-dimensional risk grid cell using an inverse distance weighted interpolation method; comparing the interpolated consequence value with the maximum value of all extreme points within the coverage area of ​​the two-dimensional risk grid cell, and taking the maximum value of the two as the accident consequence grid value of the two-dimensional risk grid cell; determining the accident consequence grid value for each two-dimensional risk grid cell in the above manner, thereby obtaining the accident consequence grid value corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid.

[0112] Understandably, in order to reduce the amount of computation, two-dimensional extreme field mapping can be performed on key areas of the target chemical industrial park that contain the target equipment and the scope of its accident impact, while ensuring the integrity of the risk assessment.

[0113] This embodiment enables spatial gridded calculation of individual risk values ​​and social risk values.

[0114] In one example implementation, simulating a benzene leak from a 100,000 m³ external floating roof crude oil storage tank under a 50-year typhoon scenario, four elevation layers (0m, 5m, 10m, and 15m) were equidistantly spaced vertically. A traversal algorithm was used to extract the 30-minute average concentration of benzene vapor at different horizontal coordinates within each elevation layer, serving as the characteristic value of the accident consequences at that horizontal coordinate. The maximum value of the 30-minute average concentration of benzene vapor corresponding to the four elevation layers at the same horizontal coordinate was taken to obtain the extreme value of the global lethal concentration at that horizontal coordinate. Calculations showed that the maximum global influence radius of the benzene vapor lethal concentration was 1200 m, 28% larger than the result of a single surface layer simulation, effectively avoiding an underestimation of vertical risk.

[0115] In one example embodiment, a two-dimensional risk grid cell located 300m away from the leaking storage tank within the park is selected for calculation. This two-dimensional risk grid cell corresponds to coordinates (520m, 680m), and the frequency of the benzene leak accident scenario corresponding to this two-dimensional risk grid cell is calculated. = / year, the average concentration of benzene vapor in this mapped two-dimensional risk grid cell over 30 minutes is 2200 ppm, corresponding to a mortality probability of [missing information]. =0.1, substituting this into the personal risk value calculation formula yields the personal risk value as 0.1. / year, after traversing and calculating the two-dimensional risk grid cells of the entire target chemical industrial park, the maximum individual risk of the target chemical industrial park is obtained as follows: / year, located 300m downwind of the leaking storage tank.

[0116] A set of two-dimensional risk grid cells within the benzene vapor diffusion impact range is determined. Based on the park's personnel scheduling data and the personnel density statistics of office areas, production areas, or auxiliary areas, the number of park personnel is allocated to each two-dimensional risk grid cell in the set of two-dimensional risk grid cells. The probability of death is determined based on the 30-minute average concentration of benzene vapor corresponding to each two-dimensional risk grid cell. Then, the product of the average number of personnel corresponding to each two-dimensional risk grid cell and the probability of death is accumulated to obtain the number of deaths corresponding to the typhoon disaster scenario.

[0117] If there are 12 typhoon-related disaster scenarios in the typhoon disaster scenario database, then the number of deaths in each typhoon-related disaster scenario will be sorted from smallest to largest, the cumulative frequency of deaths greater than or equal to N will be calculated, and a social risk FN curve will be plotted. This curve will be compared with the acceptable risk standard line stipulated in the "Risk Benchmark for Hazardous Chemical Production and Storage Facilities". If the social risk FN curve of the park is located in the "unacceptable zone", targeted risk control measures must be taken.

[0118] In one embodiment, the accidents occurring in each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios include at least one of diffusion, fire, and explosion; the three-dimensional simulation of accident consequences based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data includes: when diffusion occurs, performing a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the vapor cloud diffusion process based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain the vapor cloud diffusion range; when a fire occurs, performing a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the flame combustion process based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain the flame tilt angle and thermal radiation intensity distribution; when an explosion occurs, performing a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the explosion impact process based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain the explosion overpressure distribution.

[0119] Optionally, the accidents occurring in each of the aforementioned typhoon-related disaster scenarios also include hazardous chemical leaks.

[0120] It is understandable that when conducting three-dimensional simulations of accident consequences, the typhoon-type disaster scenario library can be used to study the amplification effect of strong typhoon winds on steam cloud diffusion, flame tilt angle and thermal radiation intensity, and explosion overpressure distribution. The three-dimensional point cloud data is also used when conducting three-dimensional simulations of accident consequences in order to take into account the influence of complex building disturbances and terrain obstruction in the target chemical industrial park, thereby achieving high-precision three-dimensional simulations of accident consequences.

[0121] This embodiment enables the determination of the affected area of ​​a diffusion accident, the quantification of the flame tilt angle and thermal radiation intensity distribution of a fire accident under the influence of a typhoon, and the spatial expression of the impact of an explosion accident, thereby achieving a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences.

[0122] In one example embodiment, the diffusion process of benzene vapor cloud was simulated under strong wind and no wind conditions with a wind speed of 30 m / s. The results showed that the diffusion distance of vapor cloud increased by 2.3 times and the diffusion range expanded by 1.8 times under strong wind; the flame tilt angle reached 45° and the thermal radiation influence distance increased by 1.5 times.

[0123] In one example implementation, for a benzene leak accident in a 100,000 m³ external floating roof crude oil storage tank under a 50-year typhoon scenario, FLUENT software was used to conduct a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences. The simulation domain covered a 12 km² area of ​​the target chemical industrial park, with a grid accuracy of 0.5 m. Spatiotemporal distribution data of benzene vapor concentration field within a vertical height of 0-20 m were obtained, with a time step of 1 s and a total simulation duration of 3600 s.

[0124] In one embodiment, the risk protection method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons further includes: acquiring real-time typhoon monitoring data, performing feature matching between the real-time typhoon monitoring data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database; when the matching degree between the real-time typhoon monitoring data and any typhoon-type disaster scenario in the typhoon-type disaster scenario database meets a preset matching condition, determining the typhoon-type disaster scenario as a target disaster scenario, and invoking the risk protection strategy corresponding to the target disaster scenario.

[0125] Optionally, a connection can be established with meteorological departments and chemical industrial park management information systems via a real-time data interface to obtain real-time typhoon monitoring data. Typhoon monitoring data includes, but is not limited to, typhoon path, intensity, wind speed, and wind direction.

[0126] Optionally, before invoking the risk protection strategy corresponding to the target disaster scenario, information such as the operation of equipment and the status of protection facilities within the target chemical industrial park may be obtained.

[0127] Optionally, the risk protection method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons also includes updating the boundary conditions of the typhoon wind field sub-model, the equipment failure probability of the target equipment, the frequency of accidents, the three-dimensional numerical simulation results, and the risk calculation results based on real-time typhoon monitoring data, so as to achieve real-time assessment and dynamic early warning of the risks of the target chemical industrial park; constructing an emergency response knowledge base adapted to each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios, and using intelligent reasoning algorithms to automatically generate the optimal emergency response plan for different warning levels and scenarios; wherein, the emergency response knowledge base includes, but is not limited to, emergency response procedures, personnel evacuation routes, emergency resource scheduling, and on-site handling plans.

[0128] This embodiment enables real-time matching of typhoon-related disaster scenarios and rapid invocation of risk protection strategies.

[0129] In one example embodiment, a risk protection method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons is provided. Figure 2 The flowchart of this method includes the following steps:

[0130] This process involves acquiring historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park characteristic information of the target chemical industrial park, and historical typhoon information for the target chemical industrial park. Based on this data, a typhoon-related disaster scenario library is generated for the target chemical industrial park. Three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and equipment data of the target equipment within the park are also acquired. A three-dimensional geometric model of the target chemical industrial park is constructed based on the point cloud data, and a corresponding structural finite element sub-model of the target equipment is constructed based on the equipment data. A typhoon wind field sub-model is established and solved based on the typhoon-related disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional geometric model to obtain the surface wind pressure distribution of the target equipment in various typhoon-related disaster scenarios. Finally, the surface wind pressure distribution is mapped to the corresponding structural finite element sub-model to obtain the target equipment's performance under various typhoon-related disaster scenarios. The system employs the following methods: 1) Equipment structural response model; 2) Determine the equipment failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon-induced disaster scenarios based on the equipment structural response model; 3) Determine the baseline frequency of typhoon disaster occurrence for each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on historical typhoon information; 4) Utilize event tree analysis and Bayesian network methods to determine the accident evolution probability induced by target equipment failure under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario; 5) Determine the accident occurrence frequency for each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the baseline frequency of typhoon disaster occurrence, equipment failure probability, and accident evolution probability; 6) Perform 3D simulation of accident consequences based on a typhoon-type disaster scenario library and 3D point cloud data to obtain 3D numerical simulation results for each typhoon-induced disaster scenario; 7) Calculate risks based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding 3D numerical simulation results for each typhoon-induced disaster scenario, and determine risk protection strategies based on the risk calculation results.

[0131] It should be understood that although the steps in the flowcharts of the embodiments described above are shown sequentially according to the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in the order indicated by the arrows. Unless explicitly stated herein, there is no strict order restriction on the execution of these steps, and they can be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least some steps in the flowcharts of the embodiments described above may include multiple steps or multiple stages. These steps or stages are not necessarily completed at the same time, but can be executed at different times. The execution order of these steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but can be performed alternately or in turn with other steps or at least some of the steps or stages of other steps.

[0132] Based on the same inventive concept, this application also provides a typhoon-induced chemical accident risk protection system for implementing the aforementioned risk protection method for typhoon-induced chemical accidents. The solution provided by this system is similar to the solution described in the above method. Therefore, the specific limitations of one or more embodiments of the typhoon-induced chemical accident risk protection system provided below can be found in the limitations of the typhoon-induced chemical accident risk protection method described above, and will not be repeated here.

[0133] In one embodiment, such as Figure 3 As shown, a risk protection system for chemical accidents caused by typhoons is provided, including:

[0134] The scenario library construction module 31 is used to acquire historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park feature information of the target chemical park, and historical typhoon information of the target chemical park, and generate a typhoon-induced disaster scenario library applicable to the target chemical park based on the chemical accident case data, the park feature information, and the historical typhoon information.

[0135] The multiphysics simulation module 32 is used to acquire the three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and the equipment data of the target equipment in the target chemical industrial park, and to construct the equipment structure response model of the target equipment based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, the equipment data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library;

[0136] The risk assessment module 33 is used to determine the probability of equipment failure of the target equipment under various typhoon disaster scenarios based on the equipment structural response model; to determine the accident occurrence frequency of each typhoon disaster scenario based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library, using event tree analysis; to perform three-dimensional simulation of accident consequences based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, obtaining three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon disaster scenario; and to perform risk calculation based on the accident occurrence frequency and the corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon disaster scenario.

[0137] The protection strategy formulation module 34 is used to determine the risk protection strategy based on the risk calculation results.

[0138] The various modules in the aforementioned risk protection system for chemical accidents caused by typhoons can be implemented entirely or partially through software, hardware, or a combination thereof. These modules can be embedded in or independent of the processor in a computer device, or stored in the computer device's memory as software, so that the processor can call and execute the corresponding operations of each module.

[0139] Furthermore, the step of generating a typhoon-induced disaster scenario library applicable to the target chemical industrial park based on the chemical accident case data, the park's characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information includes: extracting accident characteristic parameters from the chemical accident case data and establishing an accident case database based on the accident characteristic parameters; wherein, the accident characteristic parameters include typhoon characteristic information, equipment failure information, accident evolution information, and accident consequence information; analyzing the accident case database to obtain the accident risk patterns between the typhoon characteristic information and the equipment failure information, the accident evolution information, and the accident consequence information; and generating a typhoon-induced disaster scenario library applicable to the target chemical industrial park based on the accident risk patterns, the park's characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information.

[0140] Furthermore, the step of constructing the equipment structure response model of the target equipment based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, the equipment data, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library includes: constructing a three-dimensional geometric model of the target chemical industrial park based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, and constructing a structural finite element sub-model of the target equipment based on the equipment data; establishing and solving a typhoon wind field sub-model based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional geometric model to obtain the surface wind pressure distribution of the target equipment in each of the typhoon-type disaster scenarios; and mapping the surface wind pressure distribution to the corresponding structural finite element sub-model to obtain the equipment structure response model of the target equipment in each of the typhoon-type disaster scenarios.

[0141] Furthermore, the step of determining the accident occurrence frequency of each typhoon-induced disaster scenario using event tree analysis based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database includes: determining the baseline frequency of typhoon disaster occurrence for each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the historical typhoon information; determining the accident evolution probability induced by the failure of the target equipment under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario using event tree analysis; and determining the accident occurrence frequency of each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the baseline frequency of typhoon disaster occurrence, the equipment failure probability, and the accident evolution probability.

[0142] Further, the risk calculation based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario includes: determining the accident consequence characteristic values ​​at different elevation layers and different horizontal coordinate positions of the target chemical industrial park under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the three-dimensional numerical simulation results and the three-dimensional point cloud data; extracting extreme values ​​of the accident consequence characteristic values ​​corresponding to multiple elevation layers at the same horizontal coordinate position to obtain the accident consequence extreme values ​​at the horizontal coordinate position, and forming a two-dimensional extreme value field based on the accident consequence extreme values ​​at multiple horizontal coordinate positions; mapping the two-dimensional extreme value field to a two-dimensional risk grid of the target chemical industrial park to obtain the accident consequence grid value corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid; determining the probability of death of personnel corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid under each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the accident consequence grid value and a pre-stored personnel exposure time model; calculating the individual risk value based on the accident occurrence frequency and the probability of death of personnel; determining the number of deaths corresponding to each typhoon-induced disaster scenario based on the probability of death of personnel, and calculating the social risk value based on the number of deaths and the accident occurrence frequency.

[0143] Furthermore, the accidents occurring in each of the aforementioned typhoon-induced disaster scenarios include at least one of diffusion, fire, and explosion; the three-dimensional simulation of accident consequences based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data includes: when diffusion occurs, performing a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the vapor cloud diffusion process based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain the vapor cloud diffusion range; when a fire occurs, performing a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the flame combustion process based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain the flame tilt angle and thermal radiation intensity distribution; when an explosion occurs, performing a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the explosion impact process based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain the explosion overpressure distribution.

[0144] Furthermore, the risk protection system for chemical accidents caused by typhoons also includes a monitoring and matching module, which is used to acquire real-time typhoon monitoring data and perform feature matching between the real-time typhoon monitoring data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database. When the matching degree between the real-time typhoon monitoring data and any typhoon-type disaster scenario in the typhoon-type disaster scenario database meets the preset matching conditions, the typhoon-type disaster scenario is identified as the target disaster scenario, and the risk protection strategy corresponding to the target disaster scenario is invoked.

[0145] In one exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a server, and its internal structure diagram may be as follows: Figure 4As shown, the computer device includes a processor, memory, input / output (I / O) interfaces, and a communication interface. The processor, memory, and I / O interfaces are connected via a system bus, and the communication interface is also connected to the system bus via the I / O interfaces. The processor provides computational and control capabilities. The memory includes non-volatile storage media and internal memory. The non-volatile storage media stores the operating system, computer programs, and a database. The internal memory provides the environment for the operation of the operating system and computer programs stored in the non-volatile storage media. The database stores, but is not limited to, a database of typhoon-related disaster scenarios applicable to the target chemical industrial park. The I / O interfaces are used for information exchange between the processor and external devices. The communication interface is used for communication with external terminals via a network connection. When executed by the processor, the computer program implements a risk prevention method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons.

[0146] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 4 The structure shown is merely a block diagram of a portion of the structure related to the present application and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the present application is applied. Specific computer devices may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have different component arrangements.

[0147] In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the computer program to perform the following steps:

[0148] This process involves acquiring historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park characteristic information of the target chemical industrial park, and historical typhoon information for the target chemical industrial park. Based on these data, a typhoon-related disaster scenario library is generated for the target chemical industrial park. Three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and equipment data of target equipment within the park are acquired. Based on this data, the equipment data, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario library, an equipment structure response model for the target equipment is constructed. The failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon-related disaster scenarios is determined based on this model. Event tree analysis is used to determine the accident occurrence frequency for each typhoon-related disaster scenario based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario library. Three-dimensional simulations of accident consequences are performed using the typhoon-related disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario. Risk calculations are performed based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario, and risk protection strategies are determined based on the risk calculation results.

[0149] In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided having a computer program stored thereon, the computer program performing the following steps when executed by a processor:

[0150] This process involves acquiring historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park characteristic information of the target chemical industrial park, and historical typhoon information for the target chemical industrial park. Based on these data, a typhoon-related disaster scenario library is generated for the target chemical industrial park. Three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and equipment data of target equipment within the park are acquired. Based on this data, the equipment data, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario library, an equipment structure response model for the target equipment is constructed. The failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon-related disaster scenarios is determined based on this model. Event tree analysis is used to determine the accident occurrence frequency for each typhoon-related disaster scenario based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario library. Three-dimensional simulations of accident consequences are performed using the typhoon-related disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data to obtain three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario. Risk calculations are performed based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario, and risk protection strategies are determined based on the risk calculation results.

[0151] It should be noted that the user information (including but not limited to user device information, user personal information, etc.) and data (including but not limited to data used for analysis, data stored, data displayed, etc.) involved in this application are all information and data authorized by the user or fully authorized by all parties, and the collection, use and processing of the relevant data must comply with relevant regulations.

[0152] Those skilled in the art will understand that all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments can be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware. The computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above methods. Any references to memory, databases, or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application can include at least one of non-volatile memory and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, optical memory, high-density embedded non-volatile memory, resistive random access memory (ReRAM), magnetic random access memory (MRAM), ferroelectric random access memory (FRAM), phase change memory (PCM), graphene memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory, etc. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can take many forms, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) or Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM). The databases involved in the embodiments provided in this application may include at least one type of relational database and non-relational database. Non-relational databases may include, but are not limited to, blockchain-based distributed databases. The processors involved in the embodiments provided in this application may be general-purpose processors, central processing units, graphics processing units, digital signal processors, programmable logic devices, quantum computing-based data processing logic devices, artificial intelligence (AI) processors, etc., and are not limited to these.

[0153] The technical features of the above embodiments can be combined in any way. For the sake of brevity, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this application.

[0154] The embodiments described above are merely illustrative of several implementation methods of this application, and while the descriptions are specific and detailed, they should not be construed as limiting the scope of this patent application. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various modifications and improvements without departing from the concept of this application, and these all fall within the protection scope of this application. Therefore, the protection scope of this application should be determined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A risk protection method for chemical accidents caused by typhoons, characterized in that, include: Acquire historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, target chemical industrial park characteristic information, and historical typhoon information of the target chemical industrial park; and generate a typhoon-type disaster scenario library applicable to the target chemical industrial park based on the chemical accident case data, the park characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information. Acquire 3D point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and equipment data of the target equipment in the target chemical industrial park. Based on the 3D point cloud data, the equipment data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library, construct the equipment structure response model of the target equipment, and determine the equipment failure probability of the target equipment under various typhoon disaster scenarios based on the equipment structure response model. Based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-related disaster scenario database, the event tree analysis method is used to determine the accident frequency of each typhoon-related disaster scenario. Based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences is performed to obtain the three-dimensional numerical simulation results under each of the typhoon-type disaster scenarios. Risk calculations are performed based on the frequency of accidents in each of the aforementioned typhoon-induced disaster scenarios and the corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results, and risk protection strategies are determined based on the risk calculation results.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of generating a typhoon-related disaster scenario database applicable to the target chemical industrial park based on the chemical accident case data, the park's characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information includes: Accident characteristic parameters are extracted from the chemical accident case data, and an accident case database is established based on the accident characteristic parameters; wherein, the accident characteristic parameters include typhoon characteristic information, equipment failure information, accident evolution information, and accident consequence information; The accident case database was analyzed to obtain the accident risk patterns between the typhoon characteristic information, the equipment failure information, the accident evolution information, and the accident consequence information; Based on the accident risk patterns, the park's characteristic information, and the historical typhoon information, a typhoon-related disaster scenario library suitable for the target chemical industrial park is generated.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The construction of the equipment structure response model for the target equipment based on the 3D point cloud data, the equipment data, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database includes: A three-dimensional geometric model of the target chemical industrial park is constructed based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, and a structural finite element sub-model of the target equipment is constructed based on the equipment data. Based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional geometric model, a typhoon wind field sub-model is established and solved to obtain the surface wind pressure distribution of the target equipment in each of the typhoon-type disaster scenarios. The surface wind pressure distribution is mapped to the corresponding structural finite element sub-model to obtain the equipment structural response model of the target equipment under each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The determination of the accident frequency for each typhoon-related disaster scenario based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database, using event tree analysis, includes: Based on the historical typhoon information, the baseline frequency of typhoon disaster occurrence for each of the aforementioned typhoon-caused scenarios is determined. Event tree analysis was used to determine the probability of accident evolution induced by the failure of the target equipment under each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios. Based on the typhoon disaster occurrence baseline frequency, the equipment failure probability, and the accident evolution probability, the accident occurrence frequency of each typhoon-induced disaster scenario is determined.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The risk calculation based on the accident occurrence frequency and corresponding three-dimensional numerical simulation results under each of the aforementioned typhoon-induced disaster scenarios includes: Based on the three-dimensional numerical simulation results and the three-dimensional point cloud data corresponding to each of the typhoon-caused disaster scenarios, the accident consequence characteristic values ​​at different elevation layers and different horizontal coordinate positions of the target chemical industrial park under each of the typhoon-caused disaster scenarios are determined. Extreme values ​​of accident consequence feature values ​​corresponding to multiple elevation layers at the same horizontal coordinate position are extracted to obtain the extreme values ​​of accident consequences at the horizontal coordinate position, and a two-dimensional extreme value field is formed based on the multiple extreme values ​​of accident consequences at the horizontal coordinate positions. The two-dimensional extreme field is mapped onto the two-dimensional risk grid of the target chemical industrial park to obtain the accident consequence grid value corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid; Based on the accident consequence grid value and the pre-stored personnel exposure time model, the probability of personnel death corresponding to the two-dimensional risk grid in each of the typhoon disaster scenarios is determined. Calculate the individual risk value based on the frequency of the accident and the probability of death. Based on the probability of death, the number of deaths corresponding to each of the typhoon-induced disaster scenarios is determined, and based on the number of deaths and the frequency of the accident, the social risk value is calculated.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The accidents occurring in each of the aforementioned typhoon-related disaster scenarios include at least one of the following: spread, fire, and explosion. The three-dimensional simulation of accident consequences based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data includes: When diffusion occurs, based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the vapor cloud diffusion process is performed to obtain the vapor cloud diffusion range. When a fire occurs, based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences is performed on the flame combustion process to obtain the flame tilt angle and heat radiation intensity distribution. When an explosion occurs, based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the three-dimensional point cloud data, a three-dimensional simulation of the accident consequences of the explosion impact process is performed to obtain the explosion overpressure distribution.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The method further includes: Acquire real-time typhoon monitoring data and perform feature matching between the real-time typhoon monitoring data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario database; When the matching degree between the real-time typhoon monitoring data and any typhoon-related disaster scenario in the typhoon-type disaster scenario database meets the preset matching conditions, the typhoon-related disaster scenario is determined as the target disaster scenario, and the risk protection strategy corresponding to the target disaster scenario is invoked.

8. A risk protection system for chemical accidents caused by typhoons, characterized in that, The system includes: The scenario library construction module is used to acquire historical typhoon-induced chemical accident case data, park feature information of the target chemical park, and historical typhoon information of the target chemical park, and generate a typhoon-induced disaster scenario library applicable to the target chemical park based on the chemical accident case data, the park feature information, and the historical typhoon information. The multiphysics simulation module is used to acquire the three-dimensional point cloud data of the target chemical industrial park and the equipment data of the target equipment in the target chemical industrial park, and to construct the equipment structure response model of the target equipment based on the three-dimensional point cloud data, the equipment data and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library. The risk assessment module is used to determine the probability of equipment failure of the target equipment under various typhoon-related disaster scenarios based on the equipment structural response model; to determine the accident frequency of each typhoon-related disaster scenario using event tree analysis based on the historical typhoon information, the equipment failure probability, and the typhoon-type disaster scenario library; to perform 3D simulation of accident consequences based on the typhoon-type disaster scenario library and the 3D point cloud data to obtain 3D numerical simulation results for each typhoon-related disaster scenario; and to perform risk calculation based on the accident frequency of each typhoon-related disaster scenario and the corresponding 3D numerical simulation results. The risk protection strategy formulation module is used to determine risk protection strategies based on the risk calculation results.

9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, characterized in that, When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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