A capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method considering inter-provincial power purchase and external return purchase risk feedback

Abstract

The application discloses a capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method considering inter-provincial electricity purchase and external sending electricity purchase risk feedback, which is characterized by the following steps: identifying inter-provincial electricity purchase, external sending electricity purchase, spot continuous high price, insufficient backup and other capacity risk events occurring in actual operation, calculating risk capacity corresponding to capacity shortage and unit risk cost, and feeding back the risk capacity and the unit risk cost to capacity parameters and price parameters of a capacity market demand curve in the next trading cycle, so as to form a capacity market clearing method which can reflect actual capacity risk, guide new reliable capacity investment, and take into account capacity adequacy and user cost.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power systems and their automation technology, specifically a capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method that takes into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase. Background Technology

[0002] With the rapid growth of installed capacity of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics, significant changes have occurred in the power system's resource structure, supply-demand balance, and electricity market operation mechanisms. While the rapid increase in new energy installed capacity has increased the total installed capacity of the system, the effective capacity it can provide during periods of system risk is typically lower than the installed capacity due to the randomness, volatility, and temporal uncertainty of new energy output. Especially under combined scenarios such as persistently low wind and solar power, high load, unit maintenance, and constraints on transmission channels, the system may face capacity shortage risks during non-traditional peak load periods. Relying solely on electricity market price signals is insufficient to adequately incentivize long-term reliable capacity investment.

[0003] As a crucial mechanism for ensuring long-term sufficiency of power system capacity, the capacity market provides stable revenue expectations for capacity resources such as coal-fired power, new energy, energy storage, virtual power plants, and demand response by procuring reliable capacity in advance and establishing capacity price signals. This guides the system to form sufficient and structurally sound reliable capacity. Existing capacity markets typically determine capacity demand based on parameters such as maximum load, external transmission plans, and reserve demand for the target delivery year, and establish market clearing prices and winning bids through centralized bidding and marginal clearing.

[0004] However, under the background of high proportion of renewable energy and deep coupling of inter-provincial transactions, the existing methods for determining capacity demand still have shortcomings. First, capacity demand is usually determined around the predicted maximum load and fixed peak periods, but the actual risk of power shortages may not occur during traditional peak load periods, but may occur during periods of compound risks such as low renewable energy output, high net load, insufficient reserves, inter-provincial price inversion, or external transmission contract fulfillment constraints. Second, for the sending provinces, the system needs to meet the load guarantee within the province and also fulfill the responsibility of inter-provincial external transmission transactions. When the supply within the province is tight, it may be necessary to ensure the power supply within the province through inter-provincial power purchases, or to repurchase, reduce, or replace the power originally intended for external transmission, thereby causing additional power purchase costs, losses in external transmission revenue, and capacity fees. Third, the existing capacity market demand curve is mainly formed based on pre-forecast parameters, lacking a mechanism to feed back the capacity shortage costs exposed in the actual operation of the previous year or the previous operating cycle to the capacity market of the next cycle, which means that capacity market investment signals may lag behind actual changes in system risk.

[0005] Taking a provincial power system at the sending end as an example, if it frequently engages in inter-provincial power purchases or power transmission buybacks during the operating year, it indicates that the original capacity demand curve may underestimate the system's reliable capacity demand during risky periods. In this case, if the capacity market in the following year still determines capacity demand solely based on predicted maximum load, power transmission plans, and reserve demand, the capacity price may not fully reflect the cost of actual capacity shortages, thus failing to effectively incentivize investment in new reliable capacity. Conversely, simply increasing capacity prices or expanding the scale of capacity procurement may lead to excessive capacity procurement and increased capacity costs for users. Summary of the Invention

[0006] The purpose of this invention is to provide a capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method that takes into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external power transmission repurchase, including the following steps:

[0007] Step 1. Construct a capacity market benchmark demand function;

[0008] Step 2. Adjust the target capacity parameter and price parameter in the capacity market benchmark demand function to obtain the capacity market benchmark demand adjustment function;

[0009] Step 3. Based on the capacity market benchmark demand correction function, construct a capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model;

[0010] Step 4. Solve the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model to obtain the capacity market clearing scheme.

[0011] Furthermore, the benchmark demand function for the capacity market is as follows:

[0012] (1)

[0013] (2)

[0014] (3)

[0015] (4)

[0016] In the formula: ; ; For the shape parameters of the capacity demand curve; The effective system capacity actually procured in the capacity market; As a baseline capacity demand curve in capacity The corresponding demand price; The target capacity parameter is the benchmark capacity for the capacity market. This is the benchmark price parameter for the capacity market.

[0017] Furthermore, the target capacity parameter of the capacity market benchmark. As shown below:

[0018] (5)

[0019] In the formula: This represents the projected maximum load within the province during the capacity delivery period. This refers to the planned power to be transmitted to external suppliers during the peak load period within the capacity delivery cycle. This refers to the system's backup capacity requirements during peak load periods within the system capacity delivery cycle.

[0020] Furthermore, capacity market benchmark price parameters As shown below:

[0021] (6)

[0022] In the formula: This is a reference price for the market capacity. and These represent the lower and upper limits of the market price for capacity, respectively. This is the amplitude limiting function.

[0023] Furthermore, the market reference price for capacity. As shown below:

[0024] (7)

[0025] In the formula: The annualized fixed cost per unit of newly added capacity resources; The expected net return after adding new capacity resources is obtained through clearing using a spot market model; the objective function of the spot market model is shown below:

[0026] (8)

[0027] In the formula, This is a set of runtime segments for simulating the spot market. A collection of power generation resources; For power generation resources The unit cost of electricity generation; For power generation resources During the period The power generation capacity; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Power loss; and These are the cost coefficients corresponding to inter-provincial power purchases and power losses, respectively.

[0028] The constraints of the spot market model are as follows:

[0029] (9)

[0030] In the formula, For time period Provincial load; For time period Electricity transmission plan; For time period Electricity that is transmitted and then repurchased.

[0031] (10)

[0032] In the formula, For power generation resources During the period The upper limit of available output.

[0033] (11)

[0034] In the formula, and Power generation resources The ability to climb downwards and upwards.

[0035] (12)

[0036] In the formula, For inter-provincial power transmission channels During the period The trend; For channel The upper limit of power transmission capacity.

[0037] (13)

[0038] In the formula, For inter-provincial power transmission channels The loss coefficient.

[0039] Furthermore, the steps for correcting the target capacity parameters include:

[0040] Define the set of capacity risk periods, namely:

[0041] (14)

[0042] In the formula: This refers to a set of periods with capacity risk. For runtime segment; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Electricity repurchased from external sources; For time period The spot market price within the province; This represents the high price threshold for spot goods. For time period Actual available spare capacity; This is the threshold for insufficient reserves.

[0043] The risk capacity is calculated based on the inter-provincial purchased electricity and the electricity transmitted back to the province during the capacity risk period, i.e.:

[0044] (15)

[0045] In the formula: Risk capacity corresponding to inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchase events; For quantile value functions, Preset quantile level;

[0046] Set capacity risk trigger threshold And determine the capacity parameter correction amount, that is:

[0047] (16)

[0048] In the formula: This is the adjustment amount for the capacity parameter.

[0049] The target capacity parameters are then corrected to obtain the corrected target capacity parameters, namely:

[0050] (17)

[0051] In the formula: This refers to the corrected target capacity parameters.

[0052] Furthermore, the steps for revising the price parameters include:

[0053] Calculate the capacity risk cost resulting from inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases, i.e.:

[0054] (18)

[0055] (19)

[0056] (20)

[0057] (twenty one)

[0058] In the formula: For time period Inter-provincial electricity purchase prices; For time period The repurchase price for outbound delivery; For time period The provincial benchmark electricity price; The original delivery transaction price; The cost of generating electricity for external power transmission; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Electricity sold back to customers. This is to cover the increased cost of purchasing electricity between provinces. Cost of repurchase after delivery; Loss of revenue from delivery services;

[0059] After obtaining the capacity risk cost, calculate the unit capacity risk cost, i.e.:

[0060] (twenty two)

[0061] In the formula: This represents the risk cost associated with insufficient unit capacity.

[0062] Set a unit risk cost threshold And determine the price parameter adjustment amount:

[0063] (twenty three)

[0064] In the formula: This is the adjustment amount for the price parameter.

[0065] The reference price parameters are adjusted to obtain the adjusted reference price parameters, namely:

[0066] (twenty four)

[0067] In the formula, These are the revised reference price parameters.

[0068] Furthermore, the capacity market benchmark demand adjustment function is as follows:

[0069] (25)

[0070] (26)

[0071] (27)

[0072] (28)

[0073] In the formula, The adjusted capacity market benchmark demand price; ; ; This refers to the shape parameters of the capacity demand curve.

[0074] Furthermore, the objective function of the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model is shown below:

[0075] (29)

[0076] In the formula, as a capacity supplier The declared effective capacity; as a capacity supplier The declared price, It is a collection of capacity suppliers.

[0077] Furthermore, the constraints of the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model include capacity supply and demand balance constraints, system procurement capacity boundary constraints, capacity resource winning bid capacity boundary constraints, and generation side effective capacity conversion constraints.

[0078] The capacity supply and demand balance constraints are as follows:

[0079] (30)

[0080] The system procurement capacity boundary constraints are as follows:

[0081] (31)

[0082] The capacity boundary constraints for the awarded capacity resources are as follows:

[0083] (32)

[0084] In the formula, This represents the effective capacity limit for the capacity provider.

[0085] The constraints for converting the effective capacity on the generation side are as follows:

[0086] (33)

[0087] In the formula, as a capacity supplier The maximum technical output or installed capacity; as a capacity supplier Effective capacity conversion factor.

[0088] This invention provides a capacity market demand curve correction method that balances reliability and economy. It transforms inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission buyback events that occur in actual operation into correction signals for the capacity market demand curve, enabling the capacity market to enhance investment incentives when the system is truly short of capacity and maintain price stability when the risk is low.

[0089] This invention can transform the capacity shortage risk exposed in actual operation into a parameter correction signal for the capacity market demand curve, making the capacity market price signal more fully reflect the system's reliable capacity demand, thereby increasing the probability of winning bids for new capacity resources and the expectation of capacity revenue. Attached Figure Description

[0090] Figure 1 Logic diagram of capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method to take into account risk feedback from inter-provincial power purchase and external power transmission repurchase;

[0091] Figure 2 This is the result of market clearing for capacity. Detailed Implementation

[0092] The present invention will be further described below with reference to embodiments, but it should not be construed that the scope of the present invention is limited to the following embodiments. Various substitutions and modifications made based on ordinary technical knowledge and common practices in the art without departing from the above-described technical concept of the present invention should be included within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0093] Example 1:

[0094] A method for adjusting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases, includes the following steps:

[0095] Step 1. Construct a capacity market benchmark demand function;

[0096] Step 2. Adjust the target capacity parameter and price parameter in the capacity market benchmark demand function to obtain the capacity market benchmark demand adjustment function;

[0097] Step 3. Based on the capacity market benchmark demand correction function, construct a capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model;

[0098] Step 4. Solve the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model to obtain the capacity market clearing scheme.

[0099] Example 2:

[0100] A method for adjusting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is technically the same as in Example 1. Further, the benchmark demand function for the capacity market is as follows:

[0101] (1)

[0102] (2)

[0103] (3)

[0104] (4)

[0105] In the formula: ; ; For the shape parameters of the capacity demand curve; The effective system capacity actually procured in the capacity market; As a baseline capacity demand curve in capacity The corresponding demand price; The target capacity parameter is the benchmark capacity for the capacity market. This is the benchmark price parameter for the capacity market.

[0106] Example 3:

[0107] A method for adjusting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, with the same technical content as any one of Embodiments 1-2, further comprising the following: a benchmark target capacity parameter for the capacity market. As shown below:

[0108] (5)

[0109] In the formula: This represents the projected maximum load within the province during the capacity delivery period. This refers to the planned power to be transmitted to external suppliers during the peak load period within the capacity delivery cycle. This refers to the system's backup capacity requirements during peak load periods within the system capacity delivery cycle.

[0110] Example 4:

[0111] A method for adjusting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, with the same technical content as any one of embodiments 1-3, further including the capacity market benchmark price parameter. As shown below:

[0112] (6)

[0113] In the formula: This is a reference price for the market capacity. and These represent the lower and upper limits of the market price for capacity, respectively. This is the amplitude limiting function.

[0114] Example 5:

[0115] A method for correcting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, with the same technical content as any one of embodiments 1-4, further including a capacity market reference price. As shown below:

[0116] (7)

[0117] In the formula: The annualized fixed cost per unit of newly added capacity resources; The expected net return after adding new capacity resources is obtained through clearing using a spot market model; the objective function of the spot market model is shown below:

[0118] (8)

[0119] In the formula, This is a set of runtime segments for simulating the spot market. A collection of power generation resources; For power generation resources The unit cost of electricity generation; For power generation resources During the period The power generation capacity; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Power loss; and These are the cost coefficients corresponding to inter-provincial power purchases and power losses, respectively.

[0120] The constraints of the spot market model are as follows:

[0121] (9)

[0122] In the formula, For time period Provincial load; For time period Electricity transmission plan; For time period Electricity that is transmitted and then repurchased.

[0123] (10)

[0124] In the formula, For power generation resources During the period The upper limit of available output.

[0125] (11)

[0126] In the formula, and Power generation resources The ability to climb downwards and upwards.

[0127] (12)

[0128] In the formula, For inter-provincial power transmission channels During the period The trend; For channel The upper limit of power transmission capacity.

[0129] (13)

[0130] In the formula, For inter-provincial power transmission channels The loss coefficient.

[0131] Example 6:

[0132] A method for correcting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, with the same technical content as any one of embodiments 1-5, further comprising the following steps for correcting the target capacity parameters:

[0133] Define the set of capacity risk periods, namely:

[0134] (14)

[0135] In the formula: This refers to a set of periods with capacity risk. For runtime segment; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Electricity repurchased from external sources; For time period The spot market price within the province; This represents the high price threshold for spot goods. For time period Actual available spare capacity; This is the threshold for insufficient reserves.

[0136] The risk capacity is calculated based on the inter-provincial purchased electricity and the electricity transmitted back to the province during the capacity risk period, i.e.:

[0137] (15)

[0138] In the formula: Risk capacity corresponding to inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchase events; For quantile value functions, Preset quantile level;

[0139] Set capacity risk trigger threshold And determine the capacity parameter correction amount, that is:

[0140] (16)

[0141] In the formula: This is the adjustment amount for the capacity parameter.

[0142] The target capacity parameters are then corrected to obtain the corrected target capacity parameters, namely:

[0143] (17)

[0144] In the formula: This refers to the corrected target capacity parameters.

[0145] Example 7:

[0146] A method for adjusting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, with the same technical content as any one of embodiments 1-6, further comprising the following steps for adjusting the price parameter:

[0147] Calculate the capacity risk cost resulting from inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases, i.e.:

[0148] (18)

[0149] (19)

[0150] (20)

[0151] (twenty one)

[0152] In the formula: For time period Inter-provincial electricity purchase prices; For time period The repurchase price for outbound delivery; For time period The provincial benchmark electricity price; The original delivery transaction price; The cost of generating electricity for external power transmission; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Electricity sold back to customers. This is to cover the increased cost of purchasing electricity between provinces. Cost of repurchase after delivery; Loss of revenue from delivery services;

[0153] After obtaining the capacity risk cost, calculate the unit capacity risk cost, i.e.:

[0154] (twenty two)

[0155] In the formula: This represents the risk cost associated with insufficient unit capacity.

[0156] Set a unit risk cost threshold And determine the price parameter adjustment amount:

[0157] (twenty three)

[0158] In the formula: This is the adjustment amount for the price parameter.

[0159] The reference price parameters are adjusted to obtain the adjusted reference price parameters, namely:

[0160] (twenty four)

[0161] In the formula, These are the revised reference price parameters.

[0162] Example 8:

[0163] A method for adjusting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is technically the same as any one of Examples 1-7. Further, the capacity market benchmark demand adjustment function is as follows:

[0164] (25)

[0165] (26)

[0166] (27)

[0167] (28)

[0168] In the formula, The adjusted capacity market benchmark demand price; ; ; This refers to the shape parameters of the capacity demand curve.

[0169] Example 9:

[0170] A method for correcting and clearing the demand curve of the capacity market, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is technically the same as any one of Examples 1-8. Further, the objective function of the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model is as follows:

[0171] (29)

[0172] In the formula, as a capacity supplier The declared effective capacity; as a capacity supplier The declared price, It is a collection of capacity suppliers.

[0173] Example 10:

[0174] A method for correcting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, with the same technical content as any one of Examples 1-9. Further, the constraints of the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model include capacity supply and demand balance constraints, system procurement capacity boundary constraints, capacity resource winning bid capacity boundary constraints, and generation side effective capacity conversion constraints.

[0175] The capacity supply and demand balance constraints are as follows:

[0176] (30)

[0177] The system procurement capacity boundary constraints are as follows:

[0178] (31)

[0179] The capacity boundary constraints for the awarded capacity resources are as follows:

[0180] (32)

[0181] In the formula, This represents the effective capacity limit for the capacity provider.

[0182] The constraints for converting the effective capacity on the generation side are as follows:

[0183] (33)

[0184] In the formula, as a capacity supplier The maximum technical output or installed capacity; as a capacity supplier Effective capacity conversion factor.

[0185] Example 11:

[0186] A method for adjusting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases, is proposed. First, basic capacity demand parameters are constructed based on the province's maximum load forecast, planned power transmission, and system reserve capacity. Second, based on the inter-provincial power purchases, power transmission repurchases, power purchase costs, repurchase costs, and power transmission revenue losses of the previous operating cycle, capacity risk capacity and unit risk cost are constructed. Third, the target capacity parameter of the capacity demand curve is adjusted according to the capacity risk capacity, and the reference price parameter of the capacity demand curve is adjusted according to the unit risk cost. Finally, a three-point capacity demand curve is generated based on the adjusted target capacity parameter and reference price parameter, and this curve, along with the capacity supplier's bid curve, is incorporated into a capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model to obtain the adjusted capacity market clearing price and winning bid capacity.

[0187] The core idea of ​​this invention is as follows: Figure 1 As shown: inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission buybacks in the previous operating cycle are regarded as external operating signals of insufficient effective system capacity; purchased and repurchased power are converted into capacity parameter corrections for the capacity demand curve; purchased costs, buyback costs, and power transmission revenue losses are converted into price parameter corrections for the capacity demand curve; by correcting the parameters of the capacity market demand curve, the capacity market demand curve in the next cycle can dynamically reflect the actual capacity risk, thereby enhancing the incentive effect of the capacity market on new reliable capacity investment.

[0188] The specific steps are as follows:

[0189] (a) Method for constructing the baseline capacity demand curve

[0190] This invention first constructs a benchmark demand curve for the capacity market. The capacity market demand curve is determined by both capacity and price parameters. The capacity parameter reflects the amount of reliable capacity the system needs to procure within the target delivery cycle, while the price parameter reflects the reference price the system is willing to pay for reliable capacity.

[0191] The target capacity parameter for the capacity market benchmark is: It mainly consists of the province's maximum load forecast, the planned capacity demand for power transmission, and the system's reserve capacity demand, and can be expressed as:

[0192] (1)

[0193] In the formula: This represents the projected maximum load within the province during the capacity delivery period. This refers to the planned power to be transmitted to external suppliers during the peak load period within the capacity delivery cycle. This refers to the system's backup capacity requirements during peak load periods within the system capacity delivery cycle.

[0194] The capacity market benchmark price parameter is denoted as This parameter can be predetermined by capacity market rules, or it can be determined based on factors such as the annualized fixed cost of new capacity resources, the standard price of coal-fired power capacity, and the upper and lower limits of capacity market prices. Its expression is:

[0195] (2)

[0196] In the formula: This is a reference price for the market capacity. and These represent the lower and upper limits of the market price for capacity, respectively. This is a limiting function, meaning that when the calculated value is lower than the lower limit, the lower limit is used, and when it is higher than the upper limit, the upper limit is used.

[0197] Capacity Market Reference Price It can be determined by market rules or regulatory agencies, and is usually expressed as:

[0198] (3)

[0199] In the formula: The annualized fixed cost per unit of newly added capacity resources; The expected net revenue from new capacity resources can be obtained through the electricity market, ancillary services market, etc.

[0200] Determining the baseline capacity parameters and benchmark price parameters Subsequently, this invention describes capacity market demand based on a three-point capacity demand curve. The baseline capacity demand curve consists of three points:

[0201] (4)

[0202] (5)

[0203] (6)

[0204] Among them, point , , They are respectively:

[0205] (7)

[0206] (8)

[0207] (9)

[0208] In the formula: ; ; The shape parameters of the capacity demand curve are preset by market rules.

[0209] As can be seen from equations (6) to (9), the capacity demand curve does not require setting multiple complex parameters separately, but is based on two core benchmark parameters. and This is determined by several fixed proportional coefficients. The baseline capacity demand curve can be represented as a piecewise linear function as follows:

[0210] (10)

[0211] In the formula: The effective system capacity actually procured in the capacity market; As a baseline capacity demand curve in capacity The corresponding demand price.

[0212] (ii) Capacity risk feedback correction method taking into account inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases

[0213] With a high proportion of renewable energy integration and inter-provincial trading coupling, the risk of insufficient system capacity does not necessarily occur during traditional peak load periods. When available capacity within a province is insufficient, renewable energy output is low, reserves are inadequate, or power transmission plans crowd out local supply capacity, the provincial power system may ensure provincial power supply through inter-provincial power purchases, or meet local power demand through power transmission buybacks or reductions in power transmission. These operational events reflect the capacity insufficiency risk exposed in actual system operation. Therefore, this invention, based on the baseline capacity demand curve, further introduces a risk feedback mechanism for inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission buybacks to correct capacity and price parameters.

[0214] First, define the set of capacity risk periods:

[0215] (11)

[0216] In the formula: This refers to a set of periods with capacity risk. For runtime segment; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Electricity repurchased from external sources; For time period The spot market price within the province; This represents the high price threshold for spot goods. For time period Actual available spare capacity; This is the threshold for insufficient reserves.

[0217] Equation (11) indicates that when the system experiences any of the following situations: inter-provincial power purchase, power transmission and repurchase, high spot prices, or insufficient reserves, the corresponding time period is identified as a capacity risk period.

[0218] (1) Capacity parameter correction method

[0219] Calculate the risk capacity based on inter-provincial purchased electricity and electricity transmitted back to other provinces during the capacity risk period:

[0220] (12)

[0221] In the formula: Risk capacity corresponding to inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchase events; For quantile value functions, A preset quantile level is used. A quantile function is employed to prevent excessive rightward shift of the capacity demand curve due to a single extreme external purchase or repurchase event, thereby improving the stability of demand curve correction.

[0222] Let the capacity risk trigger threshold be When the risk capacity does not exceed this threshold, no adjustment is made to the capacity parameter; when the risk capacity exceeds this threshold, the excess portion becomes the capacity parameter adjustment amount.

[0223] (13)

[0224] In the formula: This is the adjustment amount for the capacity parameter.

[0225] Therefore, the corrected target capacity parameter is:

[0226] (14)

[0227] Equation (14) shows that the larger the scale of inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases, the larger the equivalent capacity gap exposed by the system, and the higher the target capacity parameter of the capacity demand curve for the next trading cycle.

[0228] (2) Price parameter correction method

[0229] Calculate the capacity risk cost resulting from inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission buybacks. The capacity risk cost includes the incremental cost of inter-provincial power purchases, the cost of power transmission buybacks, and the loss of revenue from power transmission, expressed as:

[0230] (15)

[0231] The incremental cost of inter-provincial power purchases is as follows:

[0232] (16)

[0233] The cost of repurchasing the delivered goods is:

[0234] (17)

[0235] The loss of revenue from delivery is:

[0236] (18)

[0237] In the formula: For time period Inter-provincial electricity purchase prices; For time period The repurchase price for outbound delivery; For time period The provincial benchmark electricity price; The original delivery transaction price; The cost of generating electricity for external power transmission; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Electricity sold back to customers.

[0238] After obtaining the capacity risk cost, calculate the unit capacity risk cost:

[0239] (19)

[0240] In the formula: This represents the risk cost associated with insufficient unit capacity.

[0241] Let the unit risk cost threshold be... When the unit risk cost does not exceed the threshold, no adjustment is made to the price parameter; when the unit risk cost exceeds the threshold, the excess portion becomes the price parameter adjustment amount.

[0242] (20)

[0243] In the formula: This is the adjustment amount for the price parameter.

[0244] Therefore, the revised reference price parameter is as follows:

[0245] (twenty one)

[0246] Equation (21) shows that the higher the unit risk cost caused by inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases, the stronger the system's willingness to pay for reliable capacity, and the higher the reference price parameter of the capacity demand curve in the next trading cycle. At the same time, excessive fluctuations in capacity prices are avoided by using upper and lower price limits.

[0247] (3) Capacity demand curve

[0248] According to the revised and Generate a capacity demand curve corrected for risk feedback. The three points of the corrected demand curve are:

[0249] (twenty two)

[0250] (twenty three)

[0251] (twenty four)

[0252] in:

[0253] (25)

[0254] (26)

[0255] (27)

[0256] The corresponding corrected capacity demand curve is as follows:

[0257] (28)

[0258] As can be seen from equations (22) to (28), the present invention can achieve the overall rightward and upward shift of the capacity demand curve simply by modifying the target capacity parameter and the reference price parameter. This method avoids the parameter complexity caused by modifying multiple points of the demand curve separately, and has strong feasibility.

[0259] (III) Capacity Market Clearing Model Based on Modified Demand Curve

[0260] After obtaining the revised capacity demand curve, it is incorporated into the capacity market's centralized bidding and clearing process. Let the set of capacity suppliers be... Capacity supplier The effective capacity for application is The declared price is The goal of capacity market clearing is to maximize the difference between the demand-side utility of capacity and the cost of supply-side pricing for capacity.

[0261] (29)

[0262] The capacity supply and demand balance constraint is:

[0263] (30)

[0264] The system procurement capacity boundary constraints are as follows:

[0265] (31)

[0266] The market-clearing price for capacity is determined by the intersection of the modified capacity demand curve and the capacity supply curve.

[0267] (32)

[0268] In the formula: To clear prices in the capacity market; Purchase capacity for the system after the capacity market has cleared.

[0269] When the capacity supplier's bid curve intersects with the modified capacity demand curve, the price corresponding to the intersection point is the market clearing price; when the calculated clearing price exceeds the upper and lower limits stipulated by the market rules, the upper and lower limits shall be applied. As can be seen from equations (29) to (32), this invention does not change the basic organizational method of centralized bidding, marginal clearing and unified pricing in the capacity market, but introduces risk feedback signals of inter-provincial power purchase and power transmission repurchase in the capacity demand curve formation stage, thereby realizing the dynamic correction of capacity market demand parameters.

[0270] Example 12:

[0271] Verification of a capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method that takes into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, the contents of which are as follows:

[0272] (I) Scene Construction

[0273] This invention focuses on a provincial power system that exports electricity. This system is characterized by a large installed capacity of coal-fired power, rapid growth in renewable energy capacity, a high scale of inter-provincial power transmission, and the risk of inter-provincial power purchases and power repurchases during certain periods. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, two types of capacity market clearing scenarios are set up:

[0274] Scenario 1: Using the original capacity demand curve, without considering the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and power transmission repurchase.

[0275] Scenario 2: The capacity demand curve correction method proposed in this invention takes into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and power transmission repurchase.

[0276] By comparing the capacity market clearing price, clearing capacity, capacity fees, and bidding results for new capacity resources in two scenarios, the improvement effect of the method of this invention on capacity investment incentive signals is verified.

[0277] This embodiment uses an annual capacity market centralized bidding clearing model for simulation analysis. In the example, the basic capacity demand consists of the province's maximum load forecast, planned power transmission to other regions, and system reserve capacity. Specific parameters are as follows:

[0278] Table 1 Basic Parameter Settings

[0279] parameter numerical values parameter numerical values 44500MW 0.989 7820MW 1.015 1540MW 1.045 100 yuan / kW⋅year 1.50 230 yuan / kW⋅year 0.75 165 yuan / kW⋅year 0.10

[0280] (II) Analysis of Market Clearing Results

[0281] Capacity market centralized bidding was conducted for both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. The clearing results are shown in Table 2 and... Figure 2 As shown.

[0282] Table 2 Comparative Analysis of Capacity Market Clearing Results

[0283] Scene Target capacity / MW Clearing capacity / MW <![CDATA[Clearing price / yuan·kW -1 ·year -1 > Capacity Fee / 100 Million Yuan New capacity awarded in MW 1 53860.00 53992.00 175.03 94.50 1127.05 2 54980.52 54865.00 194.73 106.84 2000.05

[0284] As shown in Table 2, under the original capacity demand curve, the cleared capacity in the capacity market was 53,992.00 MW, the clearing price was 175.03 yuan / kW·year, and the newly added capacity was 1,127.05 MW. This result indicates that the original capacity demand curve can provide some incentive for capacity investment; however, because it does not consider the risks associated with inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases in actual operation, the scale of newly added capacity through bidding remains relatively limited.

[0285] After adopting the risk feedback correction method proposed in this invention, the cleared capacity in the capacity market increased to 54,865.00 MW, the clearing price increased to RMB 194.73 / kW·year, and the winning bid scale for new capacity increased to 2,000.05 MW. Compared with the original demand curve, the cleared capacity increased by 873.00 MW, the clearing price increased by RMB 19.69 / kW·year, and the winning bid scale for new capacity increased by 873.00 MW.

[0286] The results show that the method of the present invention can transform the capacity shortage risk exposed in actual operation into a parameter correction signal of the capacity market demand curve, so that the capacity market price signal can more fully reflect the reliable capacity demand of the system, thereby enhancing the probability of winning the bid for new capacity resources and the expectation of capacity revenue.

Claims

1. A method for adjusting and clearing the capacity market demand curve, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Step 1. Construct a capacity market benchmark demand function; Step 2. Adjust the target capacity parameter and price parameter in the capacity market benchmark demand function to obtain the capacity market benchmark demand adjustment function; Step 3. Based on the capacity market benchmark demand correction function, construct a capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model; Step 4. Solve the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model to obtain the capacity market clearing scheme.

2. The capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method according to claim 1, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is characterized in that... The capacity market benchmark demand function is shown below: （1） （2） （3） （4） In the formula: ; ; The shape parameter of the capacity demand curve; The effective system capacity actually procured in the capacity market; As a baseline capacity demand curve in capacity The corresponding demand price; The target capacity parameter is the benchmark capacity for the capacity market. This is the benchmark price parameter for the capacity market.

3. The capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method according to claim 2, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is characterized in that... Capacity Market Benchmark Target Capacity Parameters As shown below: （5） In the formula: This represents the projected maximum load within the province during the capacity delivery period. This refers to the planned power to be transmitted to external suppliers during the peak load period within the capacity delivery cycle. This refers to the system's backup capacity requirements during peak load periods within the system capacity delivery cycle.

4. The capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method according to claim 2, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is characterized in that... Capacity Market Benchmark Price Parameters As shown below: （6） In the formula: This is a reference price for the market capacity. and These represent the lower and upper limits of the market price for capacity, respectively. This is the amplitude limiting function.

5. The capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method according to claim 4, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is characterized in that... Capacity Market Reference Price As shown below: （7） In the formula: The annualized fixed cost per unit of newly added capacity resources; The expected net return after adding new capacity resources is obtained through clearing using a spot market model; the objective function of the spot market model is shown below: （8） In the formula, This is a set of runtime segments for simulating the spot market. A collection of power generation resources; For power generation resources The unit cost of electricity generation; For power generation resources During the period The power generation capacity; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Power loss; and These are the cost coefficients corresponding to inter-provincial power purchases and power losses, respectively. The constraints of the spot market model are as follows: （9） In the formula, For time period Provincial load; For time period Electricity transmission plan; For time period Electricity repurchased from external sources; （10） In the formula, For power generation resources During the period The upper limit of available output; （11） In the formula, and Power generation resources The downward and upward climbing abilities; （12） In the formula, For inter-provincial power transmission channels During the period The trend; For channel The upper limit of power transmission capacity; （13） In the formula, For inter-provincial power transmission channels The loss coefficient.

6. The capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method according to claim 1, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is characterized in that... The steps for correcting the target capacity parameters include: Define the set of capacity risk periods, namely: （14） In the formula: This refers to a set of periods with capacity risk. For runtime segment; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Electricity repurchased from external sources; For time period The spot market price within the province; This represents the high price threshold for spot goods. For time period Actual available spare capacity; The reserve threshold is insufficient. The risk capacity is calculated based on the inter-provincial purchased electricity and the electricity transmitted back to the province during the capacity risk period, i.e.: （15） In the formula: Risk capacity corresponding to inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchase events; For quantile value functions, Preset quantile level; Set capacity risk trigger threshold And determine the capacity parameter correction amount, that is: （16） In the formula: This is the adjustment amount for the capacity parameter; The target capacity parameters are then corrected to obtain the corrected target capacity parameters, namely: （17） In the formula: This refers to the corrected target capacity parameters.

7. The capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method according to claim 1, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is characterized in that... The steps for adjusting price parameters include: Calculate the capacity risk cost resulting from inter-provincial power purchases and power transmission repurchases, i.e.: （18） （19） （20） （21） In the formula: For time period Inter-provincial electricity purchase prices; For time period The repurchase price for outbound delivery; For time period The provincial benchmark electricity price; The original delivery transaction price; The cost of generating electricity for external power transmission; For time period Inter-provincial purchased electricity; For time period Electricity repurchased from external sources; This is to cover the increased cost of purchasing electricity between provinces. Cost of repurchase after delivery; Loss of revenue from delivery services; After obtaining the capacity risk cost, calculate the unit capacity risk cost, i.e.: （22） In the formula: This represents the risk cost associated with insufficient unit capacity. Set a threshold for unit risk cost And determine the price parameter adjustment amount: （23） In the formula: This is the adjustment amount for the price parameter; The reference price parameters are adjusted to obtain the adjusted reference price parameters, namely: （24） In the formula, This is the revised reference price parameter.

8. The capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method according to claim 1, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is characterized in that... The capacity market benchmark demand adjustment function is shown below: （25） （26） （27） （28） In the formula, The adjusted capacity market benchmark demand price; ; ; This refers to the shape parameters of the capacity demand curve.

9. The capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method according to claim 1, taking into account the risk feedback of inter-provincial power purchase and external transmission repurchase, is characterized in that... The objective function of the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model is shown below: （29） In the formula, as a capacity supplier The declared effective capacity; as a capacity supplier The declared price, It is a collection of capacity suppliers.

10. A capacity market demand curve correction and clearing method considering risk feedback between inter-provincial power purchases and external power transmission buybacks, as described in claim 1, is characterized in that... The constraints of the capacity market centralized bidding and marginal clearing model include capacity supply and demand balance constraints, system procurement capacity boundary constraints, capacity resource winning bid capacity boundary constraints, and generation side effective capacity conversion constraints. The capacity supply and demand balance constraints are as follows: （30） The system procurement capacity boundary constraints are as follows: （31） The capacity boundary constraints for the awarded capacity resources are as follows: （32） In the formula, This represents the effective capacity limit for the capacity provider. The constraints for converting the effective capacity on the generation side are as follows: （33） In the formula, as a capacity supplier The maximum technical output or installed capacity; as a capacity supplier Effective capacity conversion factor.

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