Method, device, equipment, medium and program product for determining the residual life interval of an oil-paper insulation system

Abstract

The application relates to a method, device, equipment, medium and program product for determining the residual life interval of an oil-paper insulation system. The method comprises the following steps: determining the inlet oil temperature and the load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under a target working condition; obtaining a double-sided calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system; the double-sided calculation model is obtained based on the Arrhenius thermodynamic theory, and the double-sided calculation model comprises preset life parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term; the maximum translation factor term is used for representing the influence of the target working condition on the upper limit of the life of the oil-paper insulation system; and the minimum translation factor term is used for representing the influence of the target working condition on the lower limit of the life of the oil-paper insulation system; inputting the inlet oil temperature and the load rate into the double-sided calculation model to obtain the residual life interval of the oil-paper insulation system under the target working condition. The method can reduce the risk of premature replacement or failure detection caused by inaccurate evaluation, and thus improves the economy and power supply reliability of power grid operation and maintenance.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of power transformer oil-paper insulation life assessment technology, and in particular to a method, apparatus, equipment, medium and program product for determining the remaining life range of an oil-paper insulation system. Background Technology

[0002] With the continuous growth of power grid load and the increasing complexity of operation, transformers, as core equipment for power transmission and conversion, operate in a harsh environment characterized by frequent load fluctuations and increased short-term overloads. The oil-paper insulation system, as a core insulation component of the transformer, directly determines the transformer's safe operating cycle through its aging life. Statistics show that approximately 70% of transformer failures originate from the aging failure of the oil-paper insulation. Therefore, accurately determining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is crucial for reducing power grid operation and maintenance costs and ensuring power supply reliability.

[0003] Currently, the methods for determining the remaining life of oil-paper insulation systems are mainly based on the Arrhenius equation. By introducing multiple factors to correct the activation energy and constructing a multi-factor translation factor, the remaining life of the oil-paper insulation system under the influence of multiple factors can be calculated.

[0004] However, when this method independently corrects each influencing factor, it fails to systematically consider the coupling effect between temperature and load, making it difficult to adapt to the complex scenario of dynamic changes in temperature and load during actual operation. This results in a large deviation between the predicted remaining life and the actual degree of aging. Summary of the Invention

[0005] Therefore, it is necessary to provide a method, apparatus, equipment, medium, and procedure for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system to address the aforementioned technical problems.

[0006] In a first aspect, this application provides a method for determining the remaining service life range of an oil-paper insulation system, including:

[0007] Determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0008] A two-sided computational model of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained. The two-sided computational model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided computational model includes preset lifetime parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0009] By inputting the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the two-sided calculation model, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions can be obtained.

[0010] In one embodiment, the process of constructing the bilateral computation model includes:

[0011] The model characteristic parameters of the oil-paper insulation system are determined, including the maximum pre-exponential factor, minimum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, minimum activation energy, maximum load factor index, and minimum load factor index.

[0012] The maximum translation factor term is constructed based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, and the maximum loading rate exponent.

[0013] The minimum translation factor term is constructed based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum loading rate exponent.

[0014] A two-sided computation model is constructed based on the maximum translation factor, the minimum translation factor, and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0015] In one embodiment, the process of the bilateral calculation model calculating the translation factor based on the inlet oil temperature and load rate includes:

[0016] The maximum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index.

[0017] The minimum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index.

[0018] In one embodiment, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition is obtained, including:

[0019] The upper limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the maximum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters;

[0020] The lower limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0021] The remaining lifespan range is obtained based on the upper limit and lower limit of the remaining lifespan.

[0022] In one embodiment, when the target operating condition includes multiple operating phases, obtaining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition further includes:

[0023] Determine the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage;

[0024] Input the inlet oil temperature and load rate at each operating stage into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the maximum and minimum translation factors for each operating stage.

[0025] Based on the operating time of each operating stage, the maximum translation factor and the minimum translation factor of each operating stage, the total life range of the oil-paper insulation system under multiple operating stages is determined;

[0026] The remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained based on the total lifespan and the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0027] In one embodiment, the method for determining the remaining lifespan of the above-mentioned oil-paper insulation system further includes:

[0028] If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is less than or equal to zero, the oil-paper insulation system is determined to have reached the aging failure threshold, and a maintenance or replacement prompt is output.

[0029] If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is greater than zero, then the remaining lifespan is taken as the time range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future.

[0030] Secondly, this application also provides a device for determining the remaining service life range of an oil-paper insulation system, comprising:

[0031] The determination module is used to determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0032] The acquisition module is used to acquire the two-sided calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system. The two-sided calculation model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided calculation model includes preset lifetime parameters, maximum translation factor term and minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0033] The input module is used to input the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the remaining life range of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions.

[0034] Thirdly, this application also provides a computer device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the computer program to perform the following steps:

[0035] Determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0036] A two-sided computational model of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained. The two-sided computational model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided computational model includes preset lifetime parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0037] By inputting the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the two-sided calculation model, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions can be obtained.

[0038] Fourthly, this application also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, performs the following steps:

[0039] Determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0040] A two-sided computational model of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained. The two-sided computational model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided computational model includes preset lifetime parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0041] By inputting the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the two-sided calculation model, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions can be obtained.

[0042] Fifthly, this application also provides a computer program product, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, performs the following steps:

[0043] Determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0044] A two-sided computational model of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained. The two-sided computational model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided computational model includes preset lifetime parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0045] By inputting the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the two-sided calculation model, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions can be obtained.

[0046] The aforementioned method, apparatus, equipment, medium, and program products for determining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system involve: determining the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions; obtaining a two-sided calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system; the two-sided calculation model is constructed based on Arrhenius thermodynamics theory and includes preset lifespan parameters, a maximum shift factor term, and a minimum shift factor term. The maximum shift factor term characterizes the impact of the target operating conditions on the upper limit of the lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum shift factor term characterizes the impact of the target operating conditions on the lower limit of the lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system; and inputting the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the two-sided calculation model to obtain the remaining lifespan under the target operating conditions. The remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is considered. The above method can simultaneously consider the coupled effects of temperature and load rate on the aging of oil-paper insulation, overcoming the shortcomings of traditional methods that ignore the coupling effect of temperature and load rate. It outputs the remaining lifespan range instead of a single lifespan value, quantifying the uncertainty in the assessment process and providing maintenance personnel with a more scientific basis for decision-making. Furthermore, through the combination of preset lifespan parameters, maximum shift factor, and minimum shift factor, it achieves accurate quantification of the degree of aging of oil-paper insulation under different operating conditions, effectively reducing the risk of premature replacement or missed failure due to inaccurate assessment, thereby improving the economy of power grid operation and maintenance and the reliability of power supply. Attached Figure Description

[0047] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application or related technologies, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments of this application or related technologies will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0048] Figure 1 This is an application environment diagram of a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment.

[0049] Figure 2 This is one of the flowcharts illustrating a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment;

[0050] Figure 3 This is a second flowchart illustrating a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment.

[0051] Figure 4 This is the third flowchart illustrating a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment;

[0052] Figure 5 This is a flowchart illustrating the method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment (Figure 4).

[0053] Figure 6 This is the fifth flowchart illustrating a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment.

[0054] Figure 7 This is a flowchart illustrating method six for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment;

[0055] Figure 8 This is the seventh flowchart illustrating a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment.

[0056] Figure 9 This is a structural block diagram of a device for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system in one embodiment. Detailed Implementation

[0057] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this application clearer, the following detailed description is provided in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and not intended to limit the scope of this application.

[0058] It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," etc., used in this application can be used to describe various elements, but these elements are not limited by these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish the first element from the second element. The terms "comprising" and "having," and any variations thereof, used in this application, are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion. The term "multiple" used in this application refers to two or more. The term "and / or" used in this application refers to one of the embodiments, or any combination of multiple embodiments.

[0059] With the continuous growth of power grid load and the increasing complexity of operation, transformers, as core equipment for power transmission and conversion, operate in a harsh environment characterized by frequent load fluctuations and increased short-term overloads. The oil-paper insulation system, as a core insulation component of the transformer, directly determines the transformer's safe operating cycle through its aging life. Statistics show that approximately 70% of transformer failures originate from the aging failure of the oil-paper insulation. Therefore, accurately determining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is crucial for reducing power grid operation and maintenance costs and ensuring power supply reliability.

[0060] Currently, the methods for determining the remaining life of oil-paper insulation systems are mainly based on the Arrhenius equation. By introducing multiple factors to correct the activation energy and constructing a multi-factor translation factor, the remaining life of the oil-paper insulation system under the influence of multiple factors can be calculated.

[0061] However, when this method independently corrects each influencing factor, it fails to systematically consider the coupling effect between temperature and load, making it difficult to adapt to the complex scenario of dynamic changes in temperature and load during actual operation. This results in a large deviation between the predicted remaining life and the actual degree of aging.

[0062] In view of the above-mentioned technical problems, this application provides a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system. The following embodiments will specifically illustrate the method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system.

[0063] The method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system provided in this application embodiment can be applied to, for example... Figure 1 The computer device shown includes a processor, memory, input / output interface, communication interface, display unit, and input device. The processor, memory, and input / output interface are connected via a system bus, and the communication interface, display unit, and input device are also connected to the system bus via the input / output interface. The processor provides computing and control capabilities. The memory includes a non-volatile storage medium and internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores the operating system and computer programs. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The input / output interface is used for exchanging information between the processor and external devices. The communication interface is used for wired or wireless communication with external terminals; wireless communication can be achieved through Wi-Fi, mobile cellular networks, Near Field Communication (NFC), or other technologies. When executed by the processor, the computer program implements a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system. The display unit is used to form a visually visible image and can be a display screen, projection device, or virtual reality imaging device. The display screen can be an LCD screen or an e-ink screen. The input device of the computer device can be a touch layer covering the display screen, or buttons, trackballs, or touchpads set on the casing of the computer device, or external keyboards, touchpads, or mice, etc.

[0064] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 1 The structure shown is merely a block diagram of a portion of the structure related to the present application and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the present application is applied. Specific computer devices may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have different component arrangements.

[0065] In one exemplary embodiment, such as Figure 2 As shown, a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system is provided, which can be applied to... Figure 1 Taking computer devices as an example, the explanation includes:

[0066] S201, determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions.

[0067] In this embodiment, the inlet oil temperature refers to the temperature of the top layer oil of the transformer, which directly affects the thermal aging rate of the oil-paper insulation material. Computer equipment can acquire this temperature in real time using temperature sensors installed on the top of the transformer tank or at the oil outlet, or it can be directly read from the transformer's online monitoring system or historical operating records. The load factor refers to the ratio of the actual load to the rated load during the current operating period. The computer equipment can acquire the actual power during the current operating period through the transformer monitoring system and divide it by the transformer's rated power to calculate the load factor under the target operating condition. Different load factors have different degrees of influence on the insulation aging rate. Furthermore, when the transformer's operating conditions include multiple time periods, it is necessary to separately collect the inlet oil temperature, load factor, and operating time for each time period.

[0068] S202, Obtain the two-sided calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0069] The bilateral calculation model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The bilateral calculation model includes preset lifetime parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0070] In this embodiment, the bilateral calculation model is used to describe the bilateral characteristics of the aging rate of the oil-paper insulation system under different inlet oil temperatures and load rates. The bilateral calculation model includes a preset lifetime parameter, a maximum shift factor term, and a minimum shift factor term. The preset lifetime parameter refers to the fixed lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system measured through accelerated aging experiments at a standard reference temperature, such as the baseline lifetime measured at 130 degrees Celsius. This lifetime parameter serves as a reference benchmark for the entire lifetime assessment of the oil-paper insulation system and is pre-stored in a computer device. The maximum shift factor term is used to determine the maximum lifetime value that the oil-paper insulation system may achieve under the target operating conditions, and the minimum shift factor term is used to determine the minimum lifetime value that the oil-paper insulation system may achieve under the target operating conditions. It should be noted that both the maximum and minimum translation factor terms are functions of the inlet oil temperature and load rate. The maximum translation factor term is jointly determined by the maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, maximum load rate exponent, inlet oil temperature, and load rate; similarly, the minimum translation factor term is jointly determined by the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, minimum load rate exponent, inlet oil temperature, and load rate. Furthermore, the model characteristic parameters such as the maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, maximum load rate exponent, minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate exponent are constants obtained in advance by the computer equipment through multiple accelerated aging tests on oil-paper insulation samples at different temperatures and load rates, and then fitted using the nonlinear least squares method. Once determined, these parameters are pre-fixed in the bilateral calculation model and do not require recalculation during on-site operation.

[0071] S203: Input the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the remaining life range of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions.

[0072] In this embodiment, for a single constant operating condition, the bilateral calculation model first calculates the maximum shift factor based on the input inlet oil temperature and load rate, combined with the pre-stored maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index. Simultaneously, it calculates the minimum shift factor based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index. Then, the bilateral calculation model performs calculations on the maximum and minimum shift factors with preset baseline lifetime parameters to obtain the upper and lower limits of the remaining lifetime. These limits together constitute the remaining lifetime interval. For complex operating conditions involving multiple operating stages, the bilateral calculation model sequentially calculates the maximum and minimum shift factors for each operating stage, then linearly accumulates them based on the operating time of each stage, ultimately outputting the remaining lifetime interval that comprehensively considers all operating stages.

[0073] In the aforementioned method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system, the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition are determined. A two-sided calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system is then obtained. This two-sided calculation model is constructed based on Arrhenius thermodynamics and includes preset lifespan parameters, a maximum shift factor term, and a minimum shift factor term. The maximum shift factor term characterizes the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum shift factor term characterizes the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system. The inlet oil temperature and load rate are input into the two-sided calculation model to obtain the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition. The remaining lifespan range; the above method can simultaneously consider the coupled effects of temperature and load rate on the aging of paper insulation, overcoming the shortcomings of traditional methods that ignore the coupling effect of temperature and load rate; it also outputs the remaining lifespan range instead of a single lifespan value, quantifying the uncertainty in the assessment process and providing maintenance personnel with a more scientific basis for decision-making; and through the combination of preset lifespan parameters, maximum shift factor terms, and minimum shift factor terms, it achieves accurate quantification of the degree of aging of paper insulation under different operating conditions, effectively reducing the risk of premature replacement or missed failure due to inaccurate assessment, thereby improving the economy of power grid operation and maintenance and the reliability of power supply.

[0074] In an exemplary embodiment, the construction process of the above-described bilateral computing model is as follows: Figure 3 As shown, it includes:

[0075] S301, determine the model characteristic parameters of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0076] The model's characteristic parameters include the maximum pre-exponential factor, the minimum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, the minimum activation energy, the maximum load factor index, and the minimum load factor index.

[0077] In this embodiment, the computer device first determines the model characteristic parameters of the oil-paper insulation system. These model characteristic parameters are the basic data for constructing the bilateral calculation model, including the maximum pre-exponential factor, minimum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, minimum activation energy, maximum load factor index, and minimum load factor index. It is understood that the determination process of the above model characteristic parameters can be performed automatically by the computer device, or it can be completed by technicians with the assistance of the computer device, or the fitting results can be directly imported into the computer device from laboratory equipment.

[0078] Specifically, the aforementioned model characteristic parameters are not calculated in real time on-site, but rather determined through pre-fitting in the laboratory. The computer equipment receives test data from laboratory experiments or fitting results input by technicians. In the laboratory phase, oil-paper insulation samples of the same model, batch, or material as the transformer under evaluation are selected, and multiple sets of accelerated aging tests are conducted under laboratory conditions at different temperatures and load rates. The temperature range covers various oil temperatures that may occur during actual transformer operation, and the load rate includes combinations of light load, full load, and overload conditions.

[0079] During the experiment, aging characteristic indicators of the oil-paper insulation samples, such as the degree of polymerization or tensile strength of the insulating paper, were measured periodically until the oil-paper insulation samples reached the aging failure threshold. Subsequently, based on the time required for the oil-paper insulation samples to reach the failure threshold under different temperatures and load rates, insulation life data of the oil-paper insulation samples under each set of test conditions could be obtained. These insulation life data reflect the aging law under the combined effects of temperature and load rate. After acquiring the above experimental data, the computer equipment established a two-parameter model framework based on the Arrhenius thermal aging kinetics theory, with inlet oil temperature and load rate as independent variables and oil-paper insulation translation factor as dependent variable. The computer equipment used the nonlinear least squares method to fit the parameters of the above experimental data, that is, taking the unknown parameters in the model framework as variables, and using optimization algorithms to find the parameter combination that minimizes the error between the model prediction value and the experimental measured value, thereby determining the maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate exponent in the maximum translation factor term, and the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate exponent in the minimum translation factor term.

[0080] Once the maximum pre-exponential factor, minimum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, minimum activation energy, maximum load rate index, and minimum load rate index are determined, the computer equipment stores them as constants in the bilateral calculation model. For oil-paper insulation materials of the same type or batch, the computer equipment can directly call them without repeated fitting. In actual field applications, the computer equipment does not need to re-fit for each transformer; it can directly read these preset characteristic parameters to perform subsequent life assessments.

[0081] S302, based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, and the maximum loading rate index, the maximum translation factor term is constructed.

[0082] In this embodiment, the computer device constructs a maximum translation factor term based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index in the model feature parameters. Specifically, the computer device reads the pre-fitted maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index. Based on the Arrhenius thermal aging kinetics theory, the computer device correlates the pre-fitted maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index with the inlet oil temperature and load rate to construct a mathematical expression for the maximum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the life of the oil-paper insulation system, and its expression can be characterized by relation (1), which is shown below:

[0083] (1);

[0084] in, This indicates the maximum translation factor under different operating conditions; The maximum pre-exponential factor is represented, with a fitted value of 3.1 × 10⁻⁶. 14 ; This represents the maximum activation energy, with a fitted value of 95.41 kJ / mol; This represents the maximum load factor index, with a fitted value of 5.28. Represents the gas constant; This indicates the temperature value.

[0085] After the computer equipment constructs the maximum translation factor term, it stores it in the bilateral calculation model. In actual operation, when the computer equipment obtains the inlet oil temperature and load rate under the current operating conditions, it substitutes these two values ​​into the above relationship (1) to calculate the maximum translation factor value under the current operating conditions.

[0086] S303, based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy and minimum loading rate exponent, the minimum translation factor term is constructed.

[0087] In this embodiment, the computer device constructs a minimum translation factor term based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index in the model feature parameters. Specifically, the computer device reads the pre-fitted minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index. Based on the Arrhenius thermal aging kinetics theory, the computer device correlates the pre-fitted minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index with the inlet oil temperature and load rate to construct a mathematical expression for the minimum translation factor term. The minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the life of the oil-paper insulation system, and its expression can be characterized by relation (2), which is shown below:

[0088] (2);

[0089] in, This represents the minimum translation factor under different operating conditions; The smallest pre-exponential factor is represented, with a fitted value of 4.5 × 10⁻⁶. 11 ; Indicates the minimum activation energy; This represents the minimum load factor index, with a fitted value of 0.1884. Represents the gas constant; This indicates the temperature value.

[0090] After the computer equipment constructs the minimum translation factor term, it stores it in the bilateral calculation model. In actual operation, when the computer equipment obtains the inlet oil temperature and load rate under the current operating conditions, it substitutes these two values ​​into the above relationship (2) to calculate the minimum translation factor value under the current operating conditions.

[0091] S304. Based on the maximum translation factor, the minimum translation factor, and the preset lifetime parameters, a two-sided calculation model is constructed.

[0092] In this embodiment, the computer device reads the maximum translation factor expression, the minimum translation factor expression, and pre-stored preset lifetime parameters from the memory. The preset lifetime parameters are the baseline lifetime values ​​(e.g., values ​​obtained by accelerated aging tests on the oil-paper insulation system at a standard reference temperature) from the memory. The computer device integrates the above three components to obtain a bilateral computing model. The core expression of the bilateral computing model can be represented by relation (3), which is shown below:

[0093] (3);

[0094] Based on this, the computer device correlates the preset lifetime parameters with the bilateral translation factor to obtain the remaining lifetime expression, which can be characterized by relation (4), as shown below:

[0095] (4);

[0096] in, Indicates the minimum lifespan value; This indicates the maximum lifespan value.

[0097] In one exemplary embodiment, the process by which the bilateral calculation model calculates the translation factor based on the inlet oil temperature and load rate is as follows: Figure 4 As shown, it includes:

[0098] S401, the maximum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index.

[0099] In this embodiment, the computer device first acquires the operating parameters of the transformer during actual operation, including the inlet oil temperature at each operating stage. and load rate Among them, the inlet oil temperature Load rate data is directly collected through online monitoring equipment installed on the transformer. This is the ratio of the actual load to the rated load for that stage. For a single operating condition, the computer can directly read the current inlet oil temperature and load rate; for a multi-stage operating condition, the computer will sequentially read the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and running time for each stage.

[0100] The computer equipment will collect the inlet oil temperature and load rate Substituting into the double-boundary translation factor calculation model, the maximum translation factor is calculated. The formula for calculating the maximum translation factor can be represented by relation (5), which is shown below:

[0101] (5);

[0102] in, Indicates the first The maximum translation factor for each operational phase; Indicates the first Inlet oil temperature for each operating stage; Indicates the first Load rate of each running phase; Indicates the largest pre-exponential factor; Indicates the maximum activation energy; Represents the gas constant; This represents the maximum load factor index.

[0103] S402, the minimum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index.

[0104] In this embodiment, the computer device calculates the minimum translation factor based on the inlet oil temperature and load rate, as well as the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index in the model characteristic parameters. Specifically, the computer device uses the same operating parameters as S401, namely the inlet oil temperature and load rate in the same operating stage, and substitutes them into the double-boundary translation factor calculation model to calculate the minimum translation factor. The calculation formula for the minimum translation factor can be characterized by relation (6), which is shown below:

[0105] (6);

[0106] in, Indicates the first The minimum translation factor for each operational phase; Indicates the first Inlet oil temperature for each operating stage; Indicates the first Load rate of each running phase; Represents the smallest pre-exponential factor; Indicates the minimum activation energy; Represents the gas constant; This represents the minimum load factor index.

[0107] It should be noted that the calculation of the maximum and minimum translation factors can be performed in parallel or sequentially. When the computer device calculates the maximum and minimum translation factors for multiple running stages simultaneously, a loop processing method can be used. That is, S401 and S402 are executed sequentially for each running stage to obtain a set of translation factor pairs for that stage, including the maximum and minimum translation factors for that stage. The calculation results of all stages are temporarily stored in memory in the form of an array or list for subsequent multi-stage lifetime accumulation calculations.

[0108] In an exemplary embodiment, "obtaining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition" in S203 above, such as... Figure 5 As shown, it includes:

[0109] S501 determines the upper limit of the remaining lifetime based on the maximum translation factor and preset lifetime parameters.

[0110] In this embodiment, the computer device reads a preset lifetime parameter from the memory. This preset lifetime parameter is the baseline lifetime value of the oil-paper insulation system measured by accelerated aging test at a standard reference temperature. For example, the baseline characteristic lifetime measured at 130 degrees Celsius in the laboratory is 30.24 days. It should be noted that this baseline lifetime value can be adjusted according to the type of oil-paper insulation material actually used and the test conditions. The baseline lifetime value may be different for different materials or at different standard temperatures. The computer device substitutes the maximum shift factor and the preset lifetime parameter into the remaining lifetime calculation formula to calculate the upper limit of the remaining lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system under the current operating conditions. The calculation formula can be characterized by the relationship (7), which is shown below:

[0111] (7);

[0112] in, This indicates the upper limit of the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the current operating conditions; This indicates the preset lifetime parameter, i.e., the baseline lifetime value at the standard reference temperature; This represents the maximum shift factor calculated based on the current inlet oil temperature and load rate. It can be understood that the maximum shift factor reflects the degree to which the current operating conditions accelerate the insulation aging rate. A larger maximum shift factor indicates a faster insulation aging rate under the combined effects of the current inlet oil temperature and load rate, thus indicating a longer remaining lifespan. The smaller the value of the maximum shift factor, the larger the value of the lifespan limit.

[0113] S502, determine the lower limit of the remaining lifetime based on the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0114] In this embodiment, the computer device first reads the preset lifetime parameter from the memory, i.e., the reference lifetime value at the standard reference temperature. Then, the computer device substitutes the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameter into the remaining lifetime calculation formula to calculate the lower limit of the remaining lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system under the current operating conditions. The calculation formula can be characterized by relation (8), which is shown below:

[0115] (8);

[0116] in, This indicates the lower limit of the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the current operating conditions; This represents the minimum shift factor calculated based on the current inlet oil temperature and load rate. Understandably, the minimum shift factor also reflects the degree to which the current operating conditions accelerate the insulation aging rate, but its relationship with the lower limit of remaining lifetime is similar to that of the maximum shift factor. The larger the value of the minimum shift factor, the lower limit of remaining lifetime... The smaller the value, the larger the lower limit of remaining lifetime.

[0117] S503, based on the upper limit and lower limit of the remaining lifetime, the remaining lifetime range is obtained.

[0118] In this embodiment, the computer device reads the upper limit and lower limit of the remaining lifetime from memory, combines the two, and obtains the remaining lifetime range. This remaining lifespan range visually reflects the potential lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under a single operating condition defined by the current inlet oil temperature and load rate.

[0119] In practical applications, computer equipment outputs the remaining lifespan interval in ways including, but not limited to: displaying the remaining lifespan interval as A days to B days on a screen, storing the remaining lifespan interval data in a system log file, or sending it to a remote monitoring center via a communication interface. Maintenance personnel can use this remaining lifespan interval data to intuitively understand the aging status of the oil-paper insulation system under current operating conditions, thereby developing a reasonable maintenance plan.

[0120] In an exemplary embodiment, when the target operating condition includes multiple operating stages, the phrase "obtaining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition" in S203 above, such as... Figure 6 As shown, it also includes:

[0121] S601 determines the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage.

[0122] In this embodiment of the application, when the target operating condition includes multiple operating stages, the computer equipment first needs to determine the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage. Specifically, it is assumed that the transformer operating process is divided into... In each stage, the computer equipment obtains the operating parameters for that stage through an online monitoring system or historical operating records. For the first stage... In each stage, the computer equipment determines the inlet oil temperature for that operational stage. Load rate and running time ,in The core parameters for each of the above operating stages can be stored in the computer's memory in tabular form. For example, each operating stage can correspond to one operating record, containing four fields: operating stage number, inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time. It is understandable that multi-stage operating conditions can cover the transformer's daily load fluctuations, weekly operating patterns, or seasonal changes over longer timescales.

[0123] S602 inputs the inlet oil temperature and load rate at each operating stage into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the maximum and minimum translation factors for each operating stage.

[0124] In this embodiment, the computer device employs a cyclic processing method, sequentially calculating the maximum and minimum translation factors for each running stage. For the... In this stage, the computer equipment will determine the inlet oil temperature of that stage. and load rate Substituting the translation factor calculation formulas (i.e., relations (5) and (6)) into the bilateral calculation model, the maximum translation factor for this stage is obtained. and minimum translation factor .

[0125] S603 determines the total lifespan range of the oil-paper insulation system under multiple operating stages based on the operating time of each operating stage, the maximum translation factor of each operating stage, and the minimum translation factor of each operating stage.

[0126] In this embodiment, the computer device reads the runtime of all stages from the memory. Maximum translation factor and minimum translation factor Considering the cumulative lifespan under different operating conditions, a dual-boundary calculation model for the maximum and minimum cumulative damage is established for the computer equipment to calculate the total lifespan range under comprehensive operating conditions. The calculation formulas for the upper and lower limits of the total lifespan can be represented by relation (9), which is shown below:

[0127] (9);

[0128] in, This is the minimum lifespan value under combined operating conditions; This represents the maximum lifespan under combined operating conditions. The operating time under different working conditions; This represents the total number of time periods; The minimum translation factor under different working conditions; This represents the maximum translation factor under different operating conditions.

[0129] It should be noted that the above total lifespan range reflects the equivalent expected total lifespan of the paper insulation material for computer equipment after comprehensively considering all historical operating conditions. This equivalent expected total lifespan is not a simple sum of the lifespans at each stage, but rather an equivalent lifespan calculated using a time-weighted average method.

[0130] S604. Based on the total lifespan and the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained.

[0131] In this embodiment, the computer device first calculates the cumulative running time. This is the sum of the runtime of all stages. Subsequently, the computer device will have a total lifespan range (including the minimum lifespan). and maximum lifespan value Subtract the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system to obtain the remaining lifespan. ,Right now .

[0132] In an exemplary embodiment, the method for determining the remaining lifespan of the above-described oil-paper insulation system, such as... Figure 7 As shown, it also includes:

[0133] S701 If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is less than or equal to zero, it is determined that the oil-paper insulation system has reached the aging failure threshold, and a maintenance or replacement prompt is output.

[0134] In this embodiment, when the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is less than zero, it indicates that even with a conservative estimate, the oil-paper insulation system has exceeded its theoretical lifespan end, and theoretically, the oil-paper insulation system is already in a state of failure. Conversely, when the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is equal to zero, it indicates that the oil-paper insulation system has just reached its theoretical lifespan end, and there is no remaining safe operating time. In both of these cases, the computer equipment can determine that the oil-paper insulation system has reached the aging failure threshold.

[0135] Once the oil-paper insulation system is determined to have reached the aging failure threshold, the computer equipment outputs a maintenance or replacement prompt. This prompt may take the form of, but is not limited to: a pop-up alarm window on the monitoring system's display screen indicating that the oil-paper insulation has reached the aging failure threshold and requesting timely maintenance or replacement; an alarm sound being emitted via an audible alarm device; an alarm SMS message or application push notification being sent to the mobile terminal of maintenance personnel; or recording the alarm event in the system log or sending the alarm signal to the remote monitoring center via a communication interface.

[0136] S702 If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is greater than zero, the remaining lifespan shall be taken as the time range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future.

[0137] In this embodiment, the computer device reads the remaining lifetime interval from the memory, extracts the lower limit value of the interval, and compares the lower limit value with zero. When the lower limit value of the remaining lifetime interval is greater than zero, it indicates that even under a conservative estimate, the oil-paper insulation system still has a certain safe operating time and has not yet reached the aging failure threshold.

[0138] In this scenario, the computer equipment uses the remaining lifespan interval as the range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future. This time range can be presented as an interval, such as X days to Y days or X hours to Y hours, where X is the lower limit of the remaining lifespan and Y is the upper limit. Furthermore, the computer equipment can output this remaining lifespan interval in ways including, but not limited to: displaying the remaining safe operating time range as X days to Y days on the monitoring system's screen; storing the remaining lifespan interval data in the system log or database; sending it to a remote monitoring center via a communication interface; or using it as input parameters for an operation and maintenance decision-making system to automatically generate a maintenance plan.

[0139] In summary, based on all the above embodiments, a method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system is also provided, such as... Figure 8 As shown, the method includes:

[0140] S801, determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0141] S802, obtain the two-sided calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system, execute S803-S806 to obtain the two-sided calculation model;

[0142] S803, determine the model characteristic parameters of the oil-paper insulation system;

[0143] S804, based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy and maximum loading rate exponent, the maximum translation factor term is constructed;

[0144] S805, based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy and minimum loading rate exponent, the minimum translation factor term is constructed;

[0145] S806, based on the maximum translation factor, the minimum translation factor, and the preset lifetime parameters, a two-sided calculation model is constructed;

[0146] S807: When the target operating condition is a single operating phase, execute S808-S812; when the target operating condition includes multiple operating phases, execute S813-S816.

[0147] S808 inputs the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the bilateral calculation model, and calculates the maximum translation factor based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy and maximum load rate index.

[0148] S809 determines the upper limit of the remaining lifetime based on the maximum translation factor and preset lifetime parameters;

[0149] S810 inputs the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the bilateral calculation model, and calculates the minimum translation factor based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy and minimum load rate index.

[0150] S811, determine the lower limit of the remaining lifetime based on the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters;

[0151] S812, based on the upper limit and lower limit of the remaining lifetime, the remaining lifetime range is obtained;

[0152] S813, determine the inlet oil temperature, load rate and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage;

[0153] S814 inputs the inlet oil temperature and load rate at each operating stage into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the maximum and minimum translation factors for each operating stage;

[0154] S815, based on the operating time of each operating stage, the maximum translation factor of each operating stage, and the minimum translation factor, the total life range of the oil-paper insulation system under multiple operating stages is determined;

[0155] S816, based on the total lifespan and the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained;

[0156] S817, If the lower limit of the remaining lifetime interval is less than or equal to zero, execute S818; If the lower limit of the remaining lifetime interval is greater than zero, execute S819.

[0157] S818 If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is less than or equal to zero, it is determined that the oil-paper insulation system has reached the aging failure threshold, and a maintenance or replacement prompt is output.

[0158] S819, if the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is greater than zero, then the remaining lifespan is taken as the time range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future.

[0159] The methods described in each of the above steps have been described in the foregoing embodiments. For details, please refer to the foregoing descriptions. They will not be repeated here.

[0160] The above embodiments are explained and illustrated by some examples below, which do not limit the technical solution.

[0161] In an exemplary application scenario, based on a multi-condition cumulative bilateral life calculation model, the annual operating cycle of the transformer is divided into two typical operating condition segments. According to the historical operating records of the equipment, the high-load condition (condition 1) and the normal load condition (condition 2) each account for approximately 50% of the time. The load rate, duration, average oil temperature, and calculated bilateral shift factor for each operating condition segment are shown in Table 1. The life threshold of the converter transformer under this actual operating condition is calculated according to equation (9), as shown in equation (10).

[0162] Table 1 Typical operating parameters of transformers

[0163]

[0164] (10);

[0165] Furthermore, by combining the aging kinetic model, the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper after running for a specified time can be calculated inversely according to the relationship (11). Among them, DP current DP represents the current degree of polymerization, and DP0 represents the initial degree of polymerization of the insulating paper (taken as 1456); DP end The degree of aggregation corresponding to the end-of-life criterion (taken as 500); t used The running time (10 years, or 3650 days); L totalThe total lifespan predicted by the model is given. Calculation results show that after 10 years of cumulative operation, the calculated degree of polymerization (DP) of the internal oil-paper insulation of the transformer ranges from 684.33 to 1396.22. Among them, the part with the fastest aging corresponding to the maximum translation factor has a DP value of 684.33, while the part with the slowest aging corresponding to the minimum translation factor has a DP value of 1396.22.

[0166] (11);

[0167] The model prediction results were compared and analyzed with the actual measured aggregation degree data, as shown in Table 2.

[0168] Table 2 Comparison of Simulation Calculation Results and Experimental Data for Oil-Paper Insulation Life

[0169]

[0170] The model's predicted degree of aggregation distribution range (684.33–1396.22) completely covers the measured data range (774.11–1203.74), indicating that the aging model can effectively reflect the aging distribution of oil-paper insulation in actual operation. Specifically, the predicted value for the most severely aging area (684.33) is 11.6% lower than the measured minimum (774.11); the predicted value for the least aging area (1396.22) is 16.0% higher than the measured maximum (1203.74). This difference is partly attributed to the sampling points not completely covering the entire area, as the measured samples were taken from auxiliary insulation structures such as screens, whose aging environment differs from that of the main winding insulation. However, the model is highly consistent with the measured results in terms of overall distribution trend and aging hotspot location, and the errors are all within a reasonable range. This indicates that the model proposed in this paper has high reliability and engineering applicability, and its prediction results can provide a scientific basis for the insulation condition assessment and remaining life prediction of converter transformers.

[0171] It should be understood that although the steps in the flowcharts of the embodiments described above are shown sequentially according to the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in the order indicated by the arrows. Unless explicitly stated herein, there is no strict order restriction on the execution of these steps, and they can be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least some steps in the flowcharts of the embodiments described above may include multiple steps or multiple stages. These steps or stages are not necessarily completed at the same time, but can be executed at different times. The execution order of these steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but can be performed alternately or in turn with other steps or at least some of the steps or stages in other steps. It is understood that the steps in different embodiments can be freely combined as needed, and all non-contradictory solutions formed by such combinations are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0172] Based on the same inventive concept, this application also provides an apparatus for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system to implement the method for determining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system described above. The solution provided by this apparatus is similar to the solution described in the above method. Therefore, the specific limitations in one or more embodiments of the apparatus for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system provided below can be found in the limitations of the method for determining the remaining lifespan of an oil-paper insulation system described above, and will not be repeated here.

[0173] In one exemplary embodiment, such as Figure 9 As shown, a device for determining the remaining service life range of an oil-paper insulation system is provided, comprising:

[0174] Module 11 is used to determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0175] The acquisition module 12 is used to acquire the bilateral calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system. The bilateral calculation model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The bilateral calculation model includes preset lifetime parameters, maximum translation factor term and minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0176] Input module 13 is used to input the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the remaining life range of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions.

[0177] In one embodiment, the acquisition module 12 includes:

[0178] The feature unit is used to determine the model feature parameters of the oil-paper insulation system. The model feature parameters include the maximum pre-exponential factor, the minimum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, the minimum activation energy, the maximum load factor index, and the minimum load factor index.

[0179] The maximum unit is used to construct the maximum translation factor term based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, and the maximum loading rate exponent.

[0180] The minimum unit is used to construct the minimum translation factor term based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum loading rate exponent.

[0181] Two-sided units are used to construct a two-sided computation model based on the maximum translation factor, the minimum translation factor, and preset lifetime parameters.

[0182] In one embodiment, the aforementioned bilateral unit includes:

[0183] The first bilateral subunit is used to calculate the maximum translation factor based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index.

[0184] The second bilateral sub-unit is used to calculate the minimum translation factor based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index.

[0185] In one embodiment, the input module 13 includes:

[0186] The upper limit unit is used to determine the upper limit of the remaining lifetime based on the maximum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0187] The lower limit unit is used to determine the lower limit of the remaining lifetime based on the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0188] Interval cells are used to obtain the remaining lifetime interval based on the upper limit and lower limit of the remaining lifetime.

[0189] In one embodiment, the input module 13 further includes:

[0190] The first input unit is used to determine the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage.

[0191] The second input unit is used to input the inlet oil temperature and load rate at each operating stage into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the maximum and minimum translation factors for each operating stage.

[0192] The third input unit is used to determine the total lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under multiple operating stages based on the operating time of each operating stage, the maximum translation factor of each operating stage, and the minimum translation factor of each operating stage.

[0193] The fourth input unit is used to obtain the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system based on the total lifespan and the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0194] In one embodiment, the remaining lifespan determination device for the above-mentioned oil-paper insulation system further includes an output module 14, comprising:

[0195] The first output unit is used to determine that the oil-paper insulation system has reached the aging failure threshold if the lower limit of the remaining life range is less than or equal to zero, and output a maintenance or replacement prompt.

[0196] The second output unit is used to determine the remaining lifespan as the time range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future if the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is greater than zero.

[0197] Each module in the aforementioned device for determining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system can be implemented entirely or partially through software, hardware, or a combination thereof. These modules can be embedded in or independent of the processor in a computer device, or stored in the memory of a computer device as software, so that the processor can call and execute the corresponding operations of each module.

[0198] In one exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the computer program to perform the following steps:

[0199] Determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0200] A two-sided computational model of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained. The two-sided computational model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided computational model includes preset lifetime parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0201] By inputting the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the two-sided calculation model, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions can be obtained.

[0202] In one embodiment, the processor, when executing a computer program, also performs the following steps:

[0203] The model characteristic parameters of the oil-paper insulation system are determined, including the maximum pre-exponential factor, minimum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, minimum activation energy, maximum load factor index, and minimum load factor index.

[0204] The maximum translation factor term is constructed based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, and the maximum loading rate exponent.

[0205] The minimum translation factor term is constructed based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum loading rate exponent.

[0206] A two-sided computation model is constructed based on the maximum translation factor, the minimum translation factor, and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0207] In one embodiment, the processor, when executing a computer program, also performs the following steps:

[0208] The maximum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index.

[0209] The minimum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index.

[0210] In one embodiment, the processor, when executing a computer program, also performs the following steps:

[0211] The upper limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the maximum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters;

[0212] The lower limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0213] The remaining lifespan range is obtained based on the upper limit and lower limit of the remaining lifespan.

[0214] In one embodiment, the processor, when executing a computer program, also performs the following steps:

[0215] Determine the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage;

[0216] Input the inlet oil temperature and load rate at each operating stage into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the maximum and minimum translation factors for each operating stage.

[0217] Based on the operating time of each operating stage, the maximum translation factor and the minimum translation factor of each operating stage, the total life range of the oil-paper insulation system under multiple operating stages is determined;

[0218] The remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained based on the total lifespan and the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0219] In one embodiment, the processor, when executing a computer program, also performs the following steps:

[0220] If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is less than or equal to zero, the oil-paper insulation system is determined to have reached the aging failure threshold, and a maintenance or replacement prompt is output.

[0221] If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is greater than zero, then the remaining lifespan is taken as the time range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future.

[0222] In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided having a computer program stored thereon, the computer program performing the following steps when executed by a processor:

[0223] Determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0224] A two-sided computational model of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained. The two-sided computational model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided computational model includes preset lifetime parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0225] By inputting the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the two-sided calculation model, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions can be obtained.

[0226] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0227] The model characteristic parameters of the oil-paper insulation system are determined, including the maximum pre-exponential factor, minimum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, minimum activation energy, maximum load factor index, and minimum load factor index.

[0228] The maximum translation factor term is constructed based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, and the maximum loading rate exponent.

[0229] The minimum translation factor term is constructed based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum loading rate exponent.

[0230] A two-sided computation model is constructed based on the maximum translation factor, the minimum translation factor, and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0231] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0232] The maximum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index.

[0233] The minimum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index.

[0234] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0235] The upper limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the maximum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters;

[0236] The lower limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0237] The remaining lifespan range is obtained based on the upper limit and lower limit of the remaining lifespan.

[0238] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0239] Determine the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage;

[0240] Input the inlet oil temperature and load rate at each operating stage into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the maximum and minimum translation factors for each operating stage.

[0241] Based on the operating time of each operating stage, the maximum translation factor and the minimum translation factor of each operating stage, the total life range of the oil-paper insulation system under multiple operating stages is determined;

[0242] The remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained based on the total lifespan and the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0243] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0244] If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is less than or equal to zero, the oil-paper insulation system is determined to have reached the aging failure threshold, and a maintenance or replacement prompt is output.

[0245] If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is greater than zero, then the remaining lifespan is taken as the time range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future.

[0246] In one embodiment, a computer program product is provided, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, performs the following steps:

[0247] Determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions;

[0248] A two-sided computational model of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained. The two-sided computational model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided computational model includes preset lifetime parameters, a maximum translation factor term and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0249] By inputting the inlet oil temperature and load rate into the two-sided calculation model, the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating conditions can be obtained.

[0250] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0251] The model characteristic parameters of the oil-paper insulation system are determined, including the maximum pre-exponential factor, minimum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, minimum activation energy, maximum load factor index, and minimum load factor index.

[0252] The maximum translation factor term is constructed based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, and the maximum loading rate exponent.

[0253] The minimum translation factor term is constructed based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum loading rate exponent.

[0254] A two-sided computation model is constructed based on the maximum translation factor, the minimum translation factor, and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0255] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0256] The maximum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, maximum pre-exponential factor, maximum activation energy, and maximum load rate index.

[0257] The minimum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, load rate, minimum pre-exponential factor, minimum activation energy, and minimum load rate index.

[0258] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0259] The upper limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the maximum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters;

[0260] The lower limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameters.

[0261] The remaining lifespan range is obtained based on the upper limit and lower limit of the remaining lifespan.

[0262] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0263] Determine the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage;

[0264] Input the inlet oil temperature and load rate at each operating stage into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the maximum and minimum translation factors for each operating stage.

[0265] Based on the operating time of each operating stage, the maximum translation factor and the minimum translation factor of each operating stage, the total life range of the oil-paper insulation system under multiple operating stages is determined;

[0266] The remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained based on the total lifespan and the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system.

[0267] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it also performs the following steps:

[0268] If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is less than or equal to zero, the oil-paper insulation system is determined to have reached the aging failure threshold, and a maintenance or replacement prompt is output.

[0269] If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is greater than zero, then the remaining lifespan is taken as the time range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future.

[0270] Those skilled in the art will understand that all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments can be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware. The computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above methods. Any references to memory, databases, or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application can include at least one of non-volatile memory and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, optical memory, high-density embedded non-volatile memory, resistive random access memory (ReRAM), magnetic random access memory (MRAM), ferroelectric random access memory (FRAM), phase change memory (PCM), graphene memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory, etc. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can take many forms, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) or Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM). The databases involved in the embodiments provided in this application may include at least one type of relational database and non-relational database. Non-relational databases may include, but are not limited to, blockchain-based distributed databases. The processors involved in the embodiments provided in this application may be general-purpose processors, central processing units, graphics processing units, digital signal processors, programmable logic devices, quantum computing-based data processing logic devices, artificial intelligence (AI) processors, etc., and are not limited to these.

[0271] The technical features of the above embodiments can be combined in any way. For the sake of brevity, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this application.

[0272] The embodiments described above are merely illustrative of several implementation methods of this application, and while the descriptions are specific and detailed, they should not be construed as limiting the scope of this patent application. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various modifications and improvements without departing from the concept of this application, and these all fall within the protection scope of this application. Therefore, the protection scope of this application should be determined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for determining the remaining service life range of an oil-paper insulation system, characterized in that, The method includes: Determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions; A two-sided calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained. The two-sided calculation model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided calculation model includes a preset lifetime parameter, a maximum translation factor term, and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system. The inlet oil temperature and the load rate are input into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the remaining life range of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The construction process of the bilateral computing model includes: The model characteristic parameters of the oil-paper insulation system are determined, including the maximum pre-exponential factor, the minimum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, the minimum activation energy, the maximum load factor index, and the minimum load factor index. The maximum translation factor term is constructed based on the maximum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, and the maximum loading rate index. The minimum translation factor term is constructed based on the minimum pre-exponential factor, the minimum activation energy, and the minimum loading rate exponent. The bilateral calculation model is constructed based on the maximum translation factor, the minimum translation factor, and the preset lifetime parameter.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The process by which the bilateral calculation model calculates the translation factor based on the inlet oil temperature and the load rate includes: The maximum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, the load rate, the maximum pre-exponential factor, the maximum activation energy, and the maximum load rate exponent. The minimum translation factor is calculated based on the inlet oil temperature, the load rate, the minimum pre-exponential factor, the minimum activation energy, and the minimum load rate index.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The process of obtaining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition includes: The upper limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the maximum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameter; The lower limit of the remaining lifetime is determined based on the minimum translation factor and the preset lifetime parameter; The remaining lifetime range is obtained based on the upper limit and the lower limit of the remaining lifetime.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, When the target operating condition includes multiple operating stages, obtaining the remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition further includes: Determine the inlet oil temperature, load rate, and operating time of the oil-paper insulation system at each operating stage; The inlet oil temperature and load rate at each operating stage are input into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the maximum and minimum translation factors for each operating stage. Based on the operating time of each operating stage, the maximum translation factor of each operating stage, and the minimum translation factor, the total lifespan range of the oil-paper insulation system under multiple operating stages is determined; The remaining lifespan of the oil-paper insulation system is obtained based on the total lifespan range and the cumulative operating time of the oil-paper insulation system.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The method further includes: If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is less than or equal to zero, the oil-paper insulation system is determined to have reached the aging failure threshold, and a maintenance or replacement prompt is output. If the lower limit of the remaining lifespan is greater than zero, then the remaining lifespan is taken as the time range within which the oil-paper insulation system can operate safely in the future.

7. A device for determining the remaining service life range of an oil-paper insulation system, characterized in that, The device includes: The determination module is used to determine the inlet oil temperature and load rate of the oil-paper insulation system under target operating conditions; The acquisition module is used to acquire a two-sided calculation model of the oil-paper insulation system. The two-sided calculation model is constructed based on the Arrhenius thermodynamics theory. The two-sided calculation model includes a preset lifetime parameter, a maximum translation factor term, and a minimum translation factor term. The maximum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the lower limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system, and the minimum translation factor term is used to characterize the influence of the target operating condition on the upper limit of the lifetime of the oil-paper insulation system. The input module is used to input the inlet oil temperature and the load rate into the bilateral calculation model to obtain the remaining life range of the oil-paper insulation system under the target operating condition.

8. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, characterized in that, When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

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