Ultra-high voltage line-oriented extreme wind disaster risk comprehensive assessment method and system

Abstract

The application provides an extreme gale disaster risk comprehensive evaluation method and system for an ultra-high voltage line, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining multiple recurrence period extreme wind speeds of each tower station, a confidence interval corresponding to a target current period extreme wind speed, a long-term average wind speed, an extreme value distribution fitting quality parameter and a terrain acceleration factor; generating four-dimensional risk indexes of absolute intensity, amplification rate, uncertainty width and tail speed-up and an initial comprehensive risk score; updating the score according to the terrain acceleration factor, generating a target comprehensive risk score according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameter; and performing risk classification and sorting according to the target comprehensive risk score. The technical scheme of the application realizes multi-dimensional quantization and correction evaluation of the extreme gale risk of the tower station, and improves the accuracy of risk classification and operation and maintenance sorting.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of power system automation technology, specifically relating to a comprehensive risk assessment method and system for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage lines. Background Technology

[0002] Ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission lines typically span wide areas and involve numerous towers, with their corridors traversing diverse terrains such as plains, mountains, valleys, and windy passes. Extreme winds acting on conductors, ground wires, and tower structures can cause problems such as wind deflection, galloping, increased stress on components, and changes in insulation gaps, affecting the safe and stable operation of the transmission lines. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the extreme wind disaster risks at each tower site along the line to provide a basis for line inspection, structural reinforcement, and emergency response.

[0003] Existing technologies typically obtain wind speed data along the power line based on historical meteorological data, reanalysis data, or numerical weather prediction data. They then estimate extreme wind speeds for different return periods through extreme value statistical analysis and classify different tower sites according to the extreme wind speed values, design wind speed levels, or preset risk thresholds. Some methods also incorporate information on the power line section, geographical location, or historical disasters to present the assessment results in a tiered manner.

[0004] However, the meteorological background, data conditions, and terrain environment of each tower site along ultra-high voltage transmission lines vary significantly. Risk assessment based solely on a single extreme wind speed value or a fixed threshold cannot comprehensively reflect the differences in hazard levels between different sites. Furthermore, extreme value analysis results are easily affected by factors such as data sample length, data spatial resolution, and the suitability of the statistical model, leading to differences in the reliability and comparability of assessment results across different sites. Existing methods lack a unified consideration of these factors, which can easily result in insufficient risk identification for some tower sites, thereby affecting the rational determination of risk level classification and the order of operation and maintenance.

[0005] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive assessment method for extreme wind disaster risks of UHV lines to improve the accuracy of quantification, classification and ranking of extreme wind risks at tower sites. Summary of the Invention

[0006] This invention provides a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power transmission lines. It constructs a four-dimensional risk index by using multiple current extreme wind speeds and their confidence information, and corrects the comprehensive risk score by combining terrain acceleration and extreme value distribution fitting quality. This solves the problems in the existing technology where the single extreme wind speed criterion is difficult to identify hidden high-risk sites, statistical uncertainty and tail hazards are not included in the assessment, and the risk is underestimated due to complex terrain and fitting errors.

[0007] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters affecting ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, the method comprising: The multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence intervals corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, the long-term average wind speed, the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, and the terrain acceleration factor are obtained for each tower site along the line. The multiple current extreme wind speeds include the target current extreme wind speed. Based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed, a four-dimensional risk indicator including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate is generated. Based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site, an initial comprehensive risk score is generated for each tower site. Based on the terrain acceleration factor, the current extreme wind speed of the target is corrected, the absolute intensity and the magnification are updated, and the initial comprehensive risk score is updated according to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification to generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score; the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score is corrected according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters to generate a target comprehensive risk score. Based on the comprehensive risk score of the target, the risk of each tower site is classified and ranked, and the risk assessment results of extreme wind disasters are generated.

[0008] By adopting the above scheme, the present invention provides a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage (UHV) power lines. This method acquires multiple current extreme wind speeds, confidence intervals, long-term average wind speeds, extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, and terrain acceleration factors to uniformly construct the data foundation required for tower site risk assessment. It generates four-dimensional risk indicators—absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate—to jointly characterize the magnitude of extreme wind speed loads, relative abrupt changes, statistical reliability, and tail growth characteristics. By forming an initial comprehensive risk score and performing terrain acceleration correction and fitting quality correction, it compensates for the impact of complex terrain and model errors on the risk assessment results. Furthermore, by classifying and ranking the target comprehensive risk scores, it generates the risk level and maintenance priority of each tower site, improving the completeness and accuracy of the extreme wind risk assessment for UHV power lines.

[0009] In some embodiments of the present invention, generating a four-dimensional risk index including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate includes: determining the target current extreme wind speed as the absolute intensity; calculating the ratio of the target current extreme wind speed to the long-term average wind speed to generate the magnification; calculating the ratio of the difference between the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed to the target current extreme wind speed to generate the uncertainty width; determining a reference current extreme wind speed from the multiple current extreme wind speeds, and calculating the ratio of the difference between the target current extreme wind speed and the reference current extreme wind speed to the reference current extreme wind speed to generate the tail growth rate.

[0010] In some embodiments of the present invention, generating an initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site includes: sorting the absolute strength, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate of each tower site in ascending order to determine the ranking of each tower site in each dimension; mapping the ranking in each dimension to a preset scoring interval to generate a percentile score for each tower site corresponding to the absolute strength, the magnification, the uncertainty width, and the tail growth rate; and generating the initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site based on each percentile score.

[0011] In some embodiments of the present invention, generating the initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site based on the percentile scores includes: determining the dimensional weights corresponding to the absolute strength, the magnification factor, the uncertainty width, and the tail growth rate; summing the products of each percentile score and the corresponding dimensional weights to generate the initial comprehensive risk score, wherein the sum of each dimensional weight is 1.

[0012] In some embodiments of the present invention, determining the dimension weights corresponding to the absolute intensity, the magnification, the uncertainty width, and the tail growth rate respectively includes: Obtain the engineering importance level of the target route and the terrain complexity of the route corridor; Based on the importance level of the project and the complexity of the terrain, adjust the basic weights corresponding to the absolute intensity, the magnification, the uncertainty width, and the tail growth rate to generate the target dimension weights; The weights of each target dimension are normalized to generate dimension weights that sum to 1.

[0013] In some embodiments of the present invention, the terrain acceleration factor is generated based on the terrain potential of each tower site; the terrain slope of each tower site is calculated based on the terrain potential, and the terrain slope is input into the hill acceleration model to generate the terrain acceleration factor for each tower site; the product of the target current extreme wind speed and the terrain acceleration factor is calculated to generate the terrain-corrected extreme wind speed; the absolute intensity and amplification factor and their percentile scores are updated based on the terrain-corrected extreme wind speed, and the initial comprehensive risk score is updated based on the redefined percentile scores to generate the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score.

[0014] In some embodiments of the present invention, the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameter includes the KS test p-value corresponding to the generalized Pareto distribution fitting result; the KS test p-value is compared with a preset fitting quality threshold; if the KS test p-value is less than the preset fitting quality threshold, the terrain correction comprehensive risk score is increased according to a preset correction coefficient to generate the target comprehensive risk score; if the KS test p-value is not less than the preset fitting quality threshold, the terrain correction comprehensive risk score is determined as the target comprehensive risk score.

[0015] In some embodiments of the present invention, pole sites with a target comprehensive risk score greater than 70 are classified as high-risk pole sites; pole sites with a target comprehensive risk score greater than or equal to 40 and less than or equal to 70 are classified as medium-risk pole sites; and pole sites with a target comprehensive risk score less than 40 are classified as low-risk pole sites.

[0016] In some embodiments of the present invention, the extreme wind disaster risk assessment results include a comprehensive scoring table for pole and tower sites, a risk level distribution map of the line corridor, and a priority ranking of pole and tower site maintenance. The comprehensive scoring table for pole and tower sites includes four-dimensional risk indicators for each pole and tower site, percentile scores for each dimension, terrain acceleration correction information, extreme value distribution fitting quality correction information, target comprehensive risk score, and risk level. The priority ranking of pole and tower site maintenance is generated from high to low based on the target comprehensive risk score of each pole and tower site.

[0017] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: This invention employs a four-dimensional risk index—absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate—to jointly quantify the load magnitude of extreme wind speeds during the target return period, the degree of abrupt change relative to the daily wind environment, the statistical uncertainty of extreme value estimation, and the growth characteristics of the distribution tail. This reduces the blind spots in risk identification caused by a single absolute wind speed criterion. By fusing cross-site percentile scores and dimensional weights, the influence of different indicator dimensions and numerical ranges is eliminated, maintaining the relative risk differences between different tower sites. Extreme wind speeds are corrected using a terrain acceleration factor, and sites with poor fitting quality are conservatively corrected based on KS test results, reducing the risk underestimation caused by the average effect of complex terrain grids and extreme value model fitting errors. Furthermore, through risk classification, line corridor distribution maps, and maintenance priority ranking, differentiated outputs are generated for inspection, reinforcement, and emergency response, improving the robustness and engineering applicability of extreme wind disaster risk assessment for UHV lines.

[0018] Secondly, this invention provides a comprehensive risk assessment system for extreme wind disasters affecting ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, comprising: The data acquisition module is used to acquire multiple current extreme wind speeds, confidence intervals corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, long-term average wind speed, extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, and terrain acceleration factors for each tower site along the line. The multiple current extreme wind speeds include the target current extreme wind speed. The indicator generation module is used to generate a four-dimensional risk indicator, including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate, based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed. The initial scoring module is used to generate an initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site. The scoring correction module is used to correct the current extreme wind speed of the target based on the terrain acceleration factor, update the absolute intensity and the magnification, update the initial comprehensive risk score according to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification, generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score, and correct the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters to generate a target comprehensive risk score. The risk assessment module is used to classify and rank the risks of each tower site based on the comprehensive risk score of the target, and generate risk assessment results for extreme wind disasters.

[0019] A third aspect of the present invention provides a device for comprehensive risk assessment of extreme wind disasters for ultra-high voltage power transmission lines. The device includes a computer device, which includes a processor and a memory. The memory stores computer instructions. When the computer instructions are executed, the device implements the method for comprehensive risk assessment of extreme wind disasters for ultra-high voltage power transmission lines.

[0020] Additional advantages, objects, and features of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and will also become apparent in part to those skilled in the art upon studying the text, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objects and other advantages of the invention will become apparent from the description and the accompanying drawings.

[0021] Those skilled in the art will understand that the objectives and advantages achievable with the present invention are not limited to those specifically described above, and that the above and other objectives achievable with the present invention will become clearer from the following detailed description. Attached Figure Description

[0022] The accompanying drawings, which form part of this application, are used to provide a further understanding of the invention. The illustrative embodiments of the invention and their descriptions are used to explain the invention and do not constitute an improper limitation of the invention.

[0023] In the attached diagram: Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, provided as an embodiment of the present invention.

[0024] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive risk assessment system for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, provided as an embodiment of the present invention.

[0025] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0026] The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in this application can be combined with each other.

[0027] The following detailed description is exemplary and intended to provide further detailed explanation of the invention. Unless otherwise specified, all technical terms used in this invention have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application pertains. The terminology used in this invention is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to limit the scope of exemplary embodiments according to the invention.

[0028] In this embodiment, rl represents the reproducibility level obtained based on extreme frequency analysis. ( Tyr,i ) μ represents the T-year return period extreme wind speed at the i-th tower site; ( WS,i ) GPD represents the long-term average wind speed at a height of 100m at the i-th tower site; p represents the generalized Pareto distribution.( KS,i ) S represents the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value corresponding to the GPD fitting result of the i-th tower site; ( top,i ) represents the terrain acceleration factor for the i-th pole station; GIS represents Geographic Information System.

[0029] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0030] This embodiment provides a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage (UHV) lines. It is applicable to scenarios where multiple current extreme wind speeds and their statistical information output by the extreme wind diagnosis module are used as the basis for risk assessment of meteorological disaster factors at multiple tower sites within the UHV line corridor.

[0031] This embodiment uses a target current period of 250 years and a reference current period of 50 years as an example to illustrate the risk level and maintenance priority of each tower site through four-dimensional risk indicators, cross-site comprehensive scoring, terrain acceleration correction and fitting quality correction.

[0032] Example 1, as Figure 1 As shown, this invention provides a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters affecting ultra-high voltage power transmission lines. The method includes the following steps: S1. Obtain the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence intervals corresponding to the target current extreme wind speeds, the long-term average wind speeds, the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, and the terrain acceleration factors for each tower site along the line. The multiple current extreme wind speeds include the target current extreme wind speeds. S2. Based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed, generate a four-dimensional risk indicator including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate. S3. Based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site, generate an initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site; S4. Based on the terrain acceleration factor, correct the current extreme wind speed of the target, update the absolute intensity and the magnification, and update the initial comprehensive risk score according to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification to generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score; correct the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters to generate a target comprehensive risk score. S5. Based on the comprehensive risk score of the target, classify and rank the risks of each tower site to generate the risk assessment results of extreme wind disasters.

[0033] Using the above scheme, the present invention provides a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power transmission lines. This method generates a four-dimensional risk index using multiple current extreme wind speeds, confidence intervals, and long-term average wind speeds, achieving a multi-faceted characterization of extreme wind hazards. It generates an initial comprehensive risk score based on the four-dimensional risk index, achieving unified quantification of risk levels for different tower sites. The comprehensive risk score is corrected in two stages using terrain acceleration factors and extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, compensating for the amplification effect of complex terrain and statistical model errors. Furthermore, risk classification and ranking are performed using the target comprehensive risk score, forming risk assessment results that can be directly used for line inspection and reinforcement decisions, improving the accuracy of tower site risk identification and priority determination.

[0034] Specifically, step S1 includes: acquiring and organizing the extreme wind speed analysis results, long-term average wind speed, extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters and terrain acceleration factors for each tower site along the line, and constructing risk assessment input data corresponding to each tower site.

[0035] In some embodiments of this invention, for N tower sites within the transmission line corridor, the standard output file of the preceding extreme wind diagnostic module is read according to the tower identification and spatial coordinates. The standard output file can be in the form of CSV, database records, or a structured data interface, and each site record must include at least a 50-year return period extreme wind speed (rl). 50yr,i 100-year extreme wind speed rl 100yr,i 250-year extreme wind speed rl 250yr,i The upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for a once-in-250-year extreme wind speed. 250yr,hi,i , lower bound of confidence interval rl 250yr,lo,i Long-term average wind speed at 100m μ WS,i KS test p-value for fit with GPD KS,i .

[0036] Multiple current-period extreme wind speeds can be obtained by fitting peak values ​​exceeding the threshold sample with GPD, or by other extreme value distribution models that meet engineering requirements. This embodiment does not limit the specific model of the preceding extreme value analysis; as long as it can output the extreme wind speeds of each tower site under multiple return periods and the confidence intervals corresponding to the target current-period extreme wind speed, it can be used as the input of this method.

[0037] Terrain acceleration factor S top,iIt can be generated from the topographic potential Z in reanalysis data, digital elevation models, or topographic data from route surveys. Taking ERA5 topographic potential as an example, the topographic potential is first converted into topographic height. Then, the topographic slope is calculated based on the height difference and horizontal distance within the neighborhood of the target tower site. The topographic slope, ridge or hill scale, and prevailing wind direction are input into the hill acceleration model to obtain the topographic acceleration factor, which reflects the degree to which local topography amplifies near-ground wind speed. For flat terrain, the topographic acceleration factor can be set to 1; for mountain tops, ridges, valleys, or wind gaps, the topographic acceleration factor can be greater than 1.

[0038] By using tower identifiers as the association key, multiple current extreme wind speeds, confidence intervals, long-term average wind speeds, fitting quality parameters, and terrain acceleration factors are written into the same site risk data record, providing a unified data foundation for subsequent four-dimensional risk index calculation and scoring correction.

[0039] Specifically, step S2 includes: calculating the absolute intensity, amplification factor, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed, respectively, to generate a four-dimensional risk index for each tower site.

[0040] In some embodiments of the present invention, with a target current period of 250 years and a reference current period of 50 years, the risk index of the i-th tower site is calculated from four dimensions: absolute strength, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate. The four dimensions are specifically: First dimension, absolute strength To characterize the wind load level corresponding to the current extreme wind speed of the target, the 250-year return period extreme wind speed is directly determined as the absolute intensity:

[0041] In equation (1), D 1,i This represents the absolute strength of the i-th tower site; rl 250yr,i This represents the 250-year return period extreme wind speed for the i-th tower site, expressed in m / s. A higher absolute intensity indicates a greater potential extreme wind load for that site within the target period.

[0042] The second dimension is magnification. The formula used to characterize the degree of abrupt change in the current extreme wind speed of a target relative to the long-term average wind environment of the site is as follows:

[0043] In equation (2), This represents the magnification of the i-th tower site; This represents the long-term average wind speed at 100m for the i-th tower site, expressed in m / s. For sites with low long-term average wind speeds, even if the absolute extreme wind speed is not the highest, the amplification factor may still be large, reflecting sudden risks that are difficult to cover with routine operation and maintenance experience.

[0044] The third dimension is the width of uncertainty. The statistical uncertainty used to characterize the current extreme wind speed estimate of the target is calculated using the following formula:

[0045] In equation (3), This represents the uncertainty width of the i-th tower site; and Let represent the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval for the 250-year return period extreme wind speed at the i-th tower site, respectively. The larger the value, the wider the confidence interval relative to the point estimate, and the lower the statistical reliability of the extreme wind speed estimate.

[0046] The fourth dimension is the growth rate at the tail end. The formula used to characterize the degree of extreme wind speed increase from the reference current period to the target current period is as follows:

[0047] In equation (4), This represents the tail growth rate of the i-th tower site; This represents the 50-year return period extreme wind speed at the i-th tower site. The larger the tail growth rate, the heavier the tail of the extreme value distribution, the faster the extreme wind speed increases when extrapolating from the commonly used design period to a longer return period, and the higher the potential danger of events exceeding the design level.

[0048] Therefore, each tower site forms a network of D 1,i D 2,i D 3,i and D 4,i This results in a four-dimensional risk index vector. This four-dimensional vector not only retains the absolute magnitude of the target current extreme wind speed, but also introduces the amplification degree relative to the daily wind environment, the confidence interval width of the extreme value estimation, and the tail growth degree between different return periods, so that different types of high-risk sites can be included in the subsequent comprehensive scoring process.

[0049] Furthermore, in step S3, the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site are uniformly scored, and the risk levels corresponding to each dimension are combined to generate an initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site.

[0050] In this embodiment, since the dimensions and numerical ranges of absolute strength, magnification, uncertainty width and tail growth rate are different, the percentile score of the four-dimensional risk index of each tower site in all tower sites is determined, and the percentile score is weighted and summed according to the weights corresponding to each dimension.

[0051] In some embodiments of the present invention, since the physical meanings, dimensions, and numerical ranges of the four dimensions are different, cross-site percentile mapping of the risk indicators for each dimension is first performed within the same line corridor or the same assessment area. For the k-th dimension, the D values ​​of the N tower sites are... ( k,i ) Sort the towers in ascending order to determine the rank of the i-th tower site in this dimension, and generate the percentile score according to the following formula:

[0052] In equation (5), This represents the percentile score of the i-th tower site on the k-th risk dimension; express The ranking of N pole stations is determined in ascending order, with a minimum ranking of 1 and a maximum ranking of N; N represents the total number of pole stations participating in this evaluation; k can be 1, 2, 3, or 4. After processing according to formula (5), the lowest ranking corresponds to 0 points, and the highest ranking corresponds to 100 points. When multiple stations have the same index value, the average ranking method can be used to determine the ranking of tied stations.

[0053] After obtaining the percentile scores for the four dimensions, the weights of each dimension are determined, and the percentile scores are weighted and summed to generate the initial comprehensive risk score for the i-th tower site:

[0054] In equation (6), S i This represents the initial comprehensive risk score for the i-th tower site; w k This represents the dimension weight corresponding to the k-th risk dimension; This represents the percentile score of the i-th tower site on the k-th risk dimension; the sum of the weights of the four dimensions is 1.

[0055] In one alternative implementation, the dimension weight w1 corresponding to absolute intensity is 0.35, the dimension weight w2 corresponding to amplification factor is 0.30, the dimension weight w3 corresponding to uncertainty width is 0.15, and the dimension weight w4 corresponding to tail growth rate is 0.20. Among these weight settings, absolute intensity directly reflects the wind load magnitude and has the highest weight; amplification factor is used to identify the risk of local abrupt changes relative to the normal wind environment and has the second highest weight; tail growth rate reflects the growth potential of events exceeding design levels; and uncertainty width reflects the risk premium of statistical estimation.

[0056] In other implementations, the weights of each dimension can be adjusted based on the line voltage level, line importance, regional terrain complexity, historical disaster records, or the risk appetite of the operation and maintenance department. For example, for mountainous lines, the weights of amplification factor and tail speed increase can be appropriately increased; for sites with shorter sample lengths, the weight of uncertainty width can be appropriately increased. Regardless of the configuration, the sum of the weights of each dimension remains 1.

[0057] After obtaining the initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site, the initial comprehensive risk score is further revised to further reduce the impact of local terrain differences and extreme value distribution fitting quality on the risk assessment results.

[0058] Specifically, step S4 includes: correcting the target current extreme wind speed based on the terrain acceleration factor, updating the absolute intensity and the magnification factor, and updating the initial comprehensive risk score according to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification factor to generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score; correcting the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters to generate a target comprehensive risk score.

[0059] First, the amplification effect of local topography on wind speed is corrected. The target current extreme wind speed is corrected according to the topographic acceleration factor of each tower site. The absolute intensity and amplification factor are recalculated based on the corrected target current extreme wind speed.

[0060] In some embodiments of the present invention, the target current extreme wind speed is first corrected using a terrain acceleration factor. Since reanalysis data or numerical model grids reflect the average terrain and average wind field within a certain spatial range, the grid-averaged wind speed may be lower than the actual local wind speed at tower sites for locations such as mountain peaks, ridges, valleys, and wind gaps. Multiplying the target current extreme wind speed by the terrain acceleration factor yields the terrain-corrected extreme wind speed:

[0061] In equation (7), This represents the terrain-corrected extreme wind speed at the i-th tower site. This represents the 250-year return period extreme wind speed at the i-th tower site; This represents the terrain acceleration factor for the i-th pole station.

[0062] Will Substitute into equation (1) and equation (2) to update the absolute strength D. 1,i and magnification D 2,i Subsequently, the updated D was determined across all N tower sites. 1,i and D 2,iThe corresponding percentile scores are used, and the corresponding sub-scores in the initial comprehensive risk score are replaced with the two newly determined percentile scores. The percentile scores corresponding to the uncertainty width and tail growth rate remain unchanged. The comprehensive risk score with terrain correction is recalculated according to equation (7). By updating only the absolute intensity and amplification factor directly affected by the terrain correction extreme wind speed, the score update process can be kept consistent with the physical source of the four-dimensional index.

[0063] Furthermore, after completing the terrain correction, the KS test p-value corresponding to the GPD fitting results is used to determine the fitting quality of the extreme value distribution. A small KS test p-value indicates that the difference between the sample distribution and the fitted distribution is difficult to ignore, and the estimation of extreme wind speed points and confidence intervals may have large model errors. For tower sites with poor fitting quality, the comprehensive risk score for terrain correction is conservatively adjusted upward according to the following formula:

[0064] In equation (8), S i S represents the target comprehensive risk score for the i-th tower site; i In this step, the terrain correction comprehensive risk score of the i-th tower site is represented; α represents the preset correction coefficient; I(·) represents the indicator function, which takes the value 1 when the condition in parentheses is true, and 0 otherwise; This represents the KS test p-value for the i-th tower site; This indicates the preset fitting quality threshold.

[0065] For example, it can be Set it to 0.05, and set α to 0.2. When When the value is less than 0.05, the target comprehensive risk score is equal to 1.2 times the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score; when... When the score is not less than 0.05, the target comprehensive risk score remains unchanged. To keep the score within the range of 0 to 100, the target comprehensive risk score greater than 100 can be truncated to 100. The correction threshold and correction coefficient can also be determined through historical disaster samples, cross-validation, or expert calibration.

[0066] After completing the terrain influence correction and extreme value distribution fitting quality correction, and obtaining the target comprehensive risk score for each tower site, the risk assessment and result output for each tower site are further performed based on the target comprehensive risk score.

[0067] Specifically, step S5 includes: determining the risk level and maintenance priority of each tower site based on the target comprehensive risk score, and generating an extreme wind disaster risk assessment result including a comprehensive score table for tower sites, a risk level distribution map of the line corridor, and a ranking of maintenance priorities for tower sites.

[0068] In some embodiments of the present invention, each pole site is classified into three levels of risk based on the target comprehensive risk score: pole sites with a target comprehensive risk score greater than 70 are classified as high-risk pole sites; pole sites with a target comprehensive risk score greater than or equal to 40 and less than or equal to 70 are classified as medium-risk pole sites; and pole sites with a target comprehensive risk score less than 40 are classified as low-risk pole sites.

[0069] For high-risk tower sites, inspection cycles can be shortened, special inspections of foundations and components can be conducted, the wind resistance of the structure can be verified, and they can be included in the priority reinforcement list. For medium-risk tower sites, more frequent inspections can be carried out before and after extreme weather events, and extreme value analysis results can be continuously tracked. For low-risk tower sites, the regular operation and maintenance cycle can be maintained. The above operation and maintenance recommendations are used to illustrate the application of risk classification results and do not constitute a limitation on specific operation and maintenance measures.

[0070] The results of the extreme wind disaster risk assessment can include a comprehensive scoring table for tower sites, a risk level distribution map of the transmission corridor, and a ranking of tower site maintenance priorities. The comprehensive scoring table records four-dimensional risk indicators, percentile scores for each dimension, terrain acceleration factors, extreme wind speeds before and after terrain correction, KS test p-values, fit quality correction indicators, target comprehensive risk scores, and risk levels, all categorized by tower identifier. The transmission corridor risk level distribution map overlays the risk levels of each tower site onto the GIS transmission corridor layer. Maintenance priorities are generated from highest to lowest target comprehensive risk score; when multiple sites have the same score, the ranking can be determined sequentially by absolute intensity, magnification factor, or transmission line importance level.

[0071] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: Firstly, this invention characterizes the extreme wind hazard of pole / tower sites from multiple dimensions, including the extreme wind speed load level, the degree of change of extreme wind speed relative to the daily wind environment, the statistical uncertainty of extreme value estimation results, and the growth characteristics of extreme wind speeds in different return periods, by constructing absolute strength, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate. This avoids the insufficient evaluation dimensions caused by relying solely on the current extreme wind speed of a single target. Specifically, the magnification can identify pole / tower sites with low long-term average wind speeds but significant changes in extreme wind speeds relative to the daily wind environment; the uncertainty width and tail growth rate can further characterize the reliability of extreme value estimation results and the wind speed growth trend after exceeding the reference current period, thereby improving the identification capability of different types of high-risk pole / tower sites.

[0072] Secondly, this invention converts four-dimensional risk indicators with different physical meanings and numerical ranges into risk scores that can be compared uniformly, and combines the contribution of each dimension to the danger of extreme winds to form an initial comprehensive risk score. This allows absolute intensity, amplification factor, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate to participate in the risk assessment of tower sites, avoiding the excessive influence of a single indicator on the comprehensive assessment results due to differences in the dimensions and orders of magnitude of different indicators, and improving the comparability of risk assessment results between different tower sites along the line.

[0073] Thirdly, this invention corrects the target current extreme wind speed by using a terrain acceleration factor, and updates the absolute intensity and amplification factor based on the corrected target current extreme wind speed, thereby updating the initial comprehensive risk score. This enables the risk assessment results to reflect the amplification effect of local terrain such as mountain tops, ridges, canyons, and wind gaps on extreme wind speeds, reduces the impact of the spatial resolution of meteorological data and the grid averaging effect on the underestimation of local extreme wind speeds, and improves the accuracy of risk assessment results for tower sites in complex terrain areas.

[0074] Fourthly, this invention further corrects the comprehensive risk score of terrain correction by fitting the quality parameters of the extreme value distribution, and introduces the fitting reliability of the extreme wind speed statistical model into the risk assessment process. When the fitting quality of the extreme value distribution is low, the risk score of the corresponding tower site is conservatively adjusted to avoid underestimating the actual risk of the tower site due to the large fitting error of the extreme value model, thereby improving the robustness of the risk assessment results under different data quality and sample conditions.

[0075] Fifthly, this invention classifies and ranks the risks of each tower site based on the target comprehensive risk score, generating a comprehensive score table for tower sites, a risk level distribution map of the line corridor, and a priority ranking of tower site maintenance. This allows multi-dimensional risk indicators, the scoring correction process, and the final risk level to be mapped to specific tower sites, providing quantitative basis for line inspection, structural reinforcement, and emergency response to extreme weather. Simultaneously, this invention can directly receive multiple current extreme wind speeds, confidence intervals, and statistical test parameters output from the preceding extreme wind diagnosis process, without requiring additional observation data, facilitating a continuous processing flow from extreme wind speed diagnosis to risk classification and maintenance ranking.

[0076] To further illustrate the comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission lines of the present invention, this embodiment provides a specific application process. Taking N tower sites along a ±800kV UHVDC transmission line corridor as the object, the preceding extreme wind diagnosis module has already output including rl 50yr ,rl 100yr , rl250yr 250-year return period extreme wind speed 95% confidence interval, long-term average 100m wind speed and p KSThe CSV data file. After performing field integrity checks, unit standardization, and pole / tower identification matching on the CSV data, the four-dimensional risk indicators are calculated for each site.

[0077] For one typical tower site i, the 250-year return period extreme wind speed rl 250yr,i The wind speed is 25.04 m / s, and the long-term average wind speed at 100 m is μ. WS,i The speed is 3.14 m / s, therefore the magnification D 2,i The value is 25.04 / 3.14≈7.97, indicating that the current extreme wind speed is close to 8 times the long-term average wind speed. The 95% confidence interval for the 250-year return period extreme wind speed at this site is (16.45 m / s, 41.50 m / s), therefore the uncertainty width D is... 3,i (41.50) 16.45) / 25.04≈1.00, indicating that the confidence interval width is comparable to the magnitude of the point estimate. The extreme wind speed at this station, occurring once every 50 years, is rl. 50yr,i The speed is 16.06 m / s, therefore the tail-end growth rate D 4,i (25.04) 16.06) / 16.06≈0.56, which means that the extreme wind speed from once every 50 years to once every 250 years increases by about 56%.

[0078] Percentile mapping was performed on the four-dimensional risk indicators of all N tower sites. Assuming that the percentile scores of absolute strength, amplification factor, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate of a typical site are 82, 91, 88, and 78 respectively, and using a weight configuration of w1=0.35, w2=0.30, w3=0.15, and w4=0.20, the initial comprehensive risk score of the site is 0.35×82+0.30×91+0.15×88+0.20×78=84.8.

[0079] When the site is located on flat terrain, the terrain acceleration factor can be set to 1.00, the terrain-corrected extreme wind speed can be maintained at 25.04 m / s, and the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score can be maintained at 84.8 points. The KS test p-value for this site is 0.000, which is less than the preset fitting quality threshold of 0.05. An upward adjustment is made using a correction coefficient α=0.2, resulting in a target comprehensive risk score of 84.8×(1+0.2)≈101.8 points. This score is truncated to 100 points, the risk level is determined to be high risk, and the site is included in the priority reinforcement and special inspection list.

[0080] When the same station is located on a ridge terrain and the terrain acceleration factor S top,i When the value is 1.12, the terrain-corrected extreme wind speed rl adj,iThe value is approximately 25.04 × 1.12 ≈ 28.04 m / s, and the updated magnification is approximately 28.04 / 3.14 ≈ 8.93. The updated absolute strength and magnification are then re-ranked against all tower sites, the corresponding percentile scores are replaced, the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score is recalculated, and then KS fit quality correction is performed.

[0081] Since the absolute strength and magnification of each tower site will change after terrain correction, the corresponding percentile score needs to be re-determined based on the correction results of all tower sites. Therefore, this embodiment mainly describes the scoring update process after terrain correction, that is, firstly, the absolute strength and magnification are updated according to the extreme wind speed of terrain correction, then the corresponding percentile score is recalculated, and the comprehensive risk score of terrain correction is obtained accordingly, and further fitting quality correction is performed.

[0082] Through the above implementation process, we can simultaneously identify obvious high-risk sites with high absolute extreme wind speeds, hidden high-risk sites with low long-term average wind speeds but large amplification factors, high uncertainty sites with wide confidence intervals, and heavy-tailed sites with large tail growth rates, and make conservative corrections to the risk scores when the terrain is complex or the fitting quality is poor.

[0083] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive risk assessment system for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0084] Example 2, as Figure 3 As shown, the present invention also provides a comprehensive risk assessment system for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage lines. The system includes a data acquisition module, an index generation module, an initial scoring module, a scoring correction module, and a risk assessment module.

[0085] The data acquisition module is used to acquire multiple current extreme wind speeds, confidence intervals corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, long-term average wind speed, extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, and terrain acceleration factors for each tower site along the line. The multiple current extreme wind speeds include the target current extreme wind speed. The indicator generation module is used to generate a four-dimensional risk indicator, including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate, based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed. The initial scoring module is used to generate an initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site. The scoring correction module is used to correct the current extreme wind speed of the target based on the terrain acceleration factor, update the absolute intensity and the magnification, update the initial comprehensive risk score according to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification, generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score, and correct the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters to generate a target comprehensive risk score. The risk assessment module is used to classify and rank the risks of each tower site based on the comprehensive risk score of the target, and generate risk assessment results for extreme wind disasters.

[0086] Example 3: The present invention also provides a comprehensive risk assessment device for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage lines. The device includes a computer device, which includes a processor and a memory. The memory stores computer instructions. When the computer instructions are executed, the device implements the comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage lines.

[0087] Example 4, as Figure 3 As shown, the present invention also provides an electronic device 100 for implementing a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage lines.

[0088] The electronic device 100 includes a memory 101, at least one processor 102, a computer program 103 stored in the memory 101 and executable on at least one processor 102, and at least one communication bus 104.

[0089] The memory 101 can be used to store the computer program 103. The processor 102 implements the steps of the comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage lines as described in the first aspect of the present invention by running or executing the computer program stored in the memory 101 and calling the data stored in the memory 101.

[0090] The memory 101 may primarily include a program storage area and a data storage area. The program storage area may store the operating system, application programs required for at least one function (such as sound playback function, image playback function, etc.), etc.; the data storage area may store data created based on the use of the electronic device 100 (such as audio data), etc. In addition, the memory 101 may include non-volatile memory, such as hard disk, RAM, plug-in hard disk, smart media card (SMC), secure digital (SD) card, flash card, at least one disk storage device, flash memory device, or other non-volatile solid-state storage device.

[0091] At least one processor 102 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. Processor 102 may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor. Processor 102 is the control center of electronic device 100, connecting various parts of electronic device 100 via various interfaces and lines.

[0092] The memory 101 in the electronic device 100 stores multiple instructions to implement a comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power lines, and the processor 102 can execute multiple instructions to achieve the following: The multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence intervals corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, the long-term average wind speed, the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, and the terrain acceleration factor are obtained for each tower site along the line. The multiple current extreme wind speeds include the target current extreme wind speed. Based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed, a four-dimensional risk indicator including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate is generated. Based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site, an initial comprehensive risk score is generated for each tower site. Based on the terrain acceleration factor, the current extreme wind speed of the target is corrected, the absolute intensity and the magnification are updated, and the initial comprehensive risk score is updated according to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification to generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score; the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score is corrected according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters to generate a target comprehensive risk score. Based on the comprehensive risk score of the target, the risk of each tower site is classified and ranked, and the risk assessment results of extreme wind disasters are generated.

[0093] Example 5: If the modules / units integrated in the electronic device 100 are implemented as software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments of the present invention can also be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when executed by a processor, it can implement the steps of the various method embodiments described above. The computer program includes computer program code, which can be in the form of source code, object code, executable files, or certain intermediate forms. The computer-readable medium can include: any entity or device capable of carrying computer program code, recording media, USB flash drives, portable hard drives, magnetic disks, optical disks, computer memory, and read-only memory (ROM).

[0094] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0095] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0096] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0097] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0098] In the description of this specification, references to terms such as "an embodiment," "example," "specific example," etc., indicate that a specific feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with that embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, illustrative expressions of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments or examples.

[0099] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific implementation of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters affecting ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, characterized in that, The method includes: The multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence intervals corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, the long-term average wind speed, the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, and the terrain acceleration factor are obtained for each tower site along the line. The multiple current extreme wind speeds include the target current extreme wind speed. Based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed, a four-dimensional risk indicator including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate is generated. Based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site, an initial comprehensive risk score is generated for each tower site. Based on the terrain acceleration factor, the current extreme wind speed of the target is corrected, the absolute intensity and the magnification are updated, and the initial comprehensive risk score is updated according to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification to generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score; the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score is corrected according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters to generate a target comprehensive risk score. Based on the comprehensive risk score of the target, the risk of each tower site is classified and ranked, and the risk assessment results of extreme wind disasters are generated.

2. The comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that, The method generates a four-dimensional risk indicator based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed, including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate. The target current extreme wind speed is defined as the absolute intensity. Calculate the ratio of the target current extreme wind speed to the long-term average wind speed to generate the magnification factor; The uncertainty width is generated by calculating the ratio of the difference between the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed to the target current extreme wind speed. A reference current extreme wind speed is determined from the multiple current extreme wind speeds, and the ratio of the difference between the target current extreme wind speed and the reference current extreme wind speed to the reference current extreme wind speed is calculated to generate the tail speed increase.

3. The comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that, The initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site is generated based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site, including: The absolute strength, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate of each tower site are sorted in ascending order to determine the ranking of each tower site in each dimension. The rankings in each dimension are mapped to a preset scoring range to generate percentile scores for each tower site corresponding to the absolute strength, the magnification, the uncertainty width, and the tail growth rate. The initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site is generated based on the percentile scores.

4. The comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage power transmission lines according to claim 3, characterized in that, The generation of the initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site based on the percentile scores includes: Determine the dimension weights corresponding to the absolute intensity, the magnification, the uncertainty width, and the tail growth rate, respectively. The initial comprehensive risk score is generated by summing the products of each percentile score and its corresponding dimension weight, wherein the sum of each dimension weight is 1.

5. The comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power lines according to claim 4, characterized in that, The determination of the dimension weights corresponding to the absolute intensity, the magnification, the uncertainty width, and the tail growth rate includes: Obtain the engineering importance level of the target route and the terrain complexity of the route corridor; Based on the importance level of the project and the complexity of the terrain, adjust the basic weights corresponding to the absolute intensity, the magnification, the uncertainty width, and the tail growth rate to generate the target dimension weights; The weights of each target dimension are normalized to generate dimension weights that sum to 1.

6. The comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process involves correcting the target current extreme wind speed based on the terrain acceleration factor, updating the absolute intensity and the magnification factor, and updating the initial comprehensive risk score based on the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification factor to generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score, including: Obtain the topographic potential corresponding to each tower site, and calculate the topographic slope of each tower site based on the topographic potential. The terrain slope is input into the hill acceleration model to generate the terrain acceleration factor for each tower site; Calculate the product of the target current extreme wind speed and the terrain acceleration factor to generate the terrain-corrected extreme wind speed; The absolute intensity and the magnification are updated based on the terrain-corrected extreme wind speed, and the percentile scores corresponding to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification are re-determined. The initial comprehensive risk score is updated based on the redefined percentile score to generate the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score.

7. The comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that, The extreme value distribution fitting quality parameter includes the KS test p-value corresponding to the generalized Pareto distribution fitting result; The process of fitting quality parameters based on the extreme value distribution to correct the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score and generate a target comprehensive risk score includes: The KS test p-value is compared with a preset fitting quality threshold. If the KS test p-value is less than the preset fitting quality threshold, the terrain correction comprehensive risk score is increased according to the preset correction coefficient to generate the target comprehensive risk score. If the KS test p-value is not less than the preset fitting quality threshold, the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score is determined as the target comprehensive risk score.

8. The comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters of ultra-high voltage power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that, The risk classification of each tower site based on the target comprehensive risk score includes: Tower sites with a comprehensive risk score greater than 70 are classified as high-risk tower sites. Tower sites with a target comprehensive risk score greater than or equal to 40 points and less than or equal to 70 points are classified as medium-risk tower sites. Tower sites with a target comprehensive risk score of less than 40 are classified as low-risk tower sites.

9. The comprehensive risk assessment method for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power lines according to claim 1, characterized in that, The extreme wind disaster risk assessment results include a comprehensive scoring table for tower sites, a risk level distribution map of the line corridor, and a ranking of tower site maintenance priorities. The comprehensive scoring table for each pole and tower site includes four-dimensional risk indicators, percentile scores for each dimension, terrain acceleration correction information, extreme value distribution fitting quality correction information, target comprehensive risk score, and risk level. The priority ranking of pole and tower site maintenance is generated from high to low based on the comprehensive risk score of each pole and tower site.

10. A comprehensive risk assessment system for extreme wind disasters on ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, characterized in that, The system includes: The data acquisition module is used to acquire multiple current extreme wind speeds, confidence intervals corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, long-term average wind speed, extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters, and terrain acceleration factors for each tower site along the line. The multiple current extreme wind speeds include the target current extreme wind speed. The indicator generation module is used to generate a four-dimensional risk indicator, including absolute intensity, magnification, uncertainty width, and tail growth rate, based on the multiple current extreme wind speeds, the confidence interval corresponding to the target current extreme wind speed, and the long-term average wind speed. The initial scoring module is used to generate an initial comprehensive risk score for each tower site based on the four-dimensional risk indicators of each tower site. The scoring correction module is used to correct the current extreme wind speed of the target based on the terrain acceleration factor, update the absolute intensity and the magnification, update the initial comprehensive risk score according to the updated absolute intensity and the updated magnification, generate a terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score, and correct the terrain-corrected comprehensive risk score according to the extreme value distribution fitting quality parameters to generate a target comprehensive risk score. The risk assessment module is used to classify and rank the risks of each tower site based on the comprehensive risk score of the target, and generate risk assessment results for extreme wind disasters.

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