A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity

Abstract

The application discloses a water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity, relates to the technical field of water resource allocation, and comprises the following steps: obtaining standardized multi-source data; establishing a water resource carrying capacity constraint index system; determining the upper limit of the regional water resource carrying capacity by adopting a weighted comprehensive evaluation combined with a carrying capacity calculation model; checking the total amount of the regional water resource allocation; constructing a nonlinear coupling function relationship between the water resource carrying capacity and the water resource allocation amount; building a multi-objective water resource allocation model; determining a weight index composition and a constraint relationship between indexes according to rigid grades and priorities of different water demands, so as to form an allocation weight system; and obtaining the planned water resource allocation amount of each type of water through the multi-objective water resource allocation model. The application is based on the regional water resource carrying capacity, realizes the change of the water resource allocation from the traditional experience allocation and the demand-oriented allocation to the carrying capacity constraint-oriented allocation, and avoids the overdevelopment of the water resources.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of water resource allocation technology, specifically a water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity. Background Technology

[0002] Regional water resource carrying capacity refers to the maximum scale of economic and social development that a region can sustainably support under specific time and space conditions and certain technological and economic conditions, and the ability to maintain a benign cycle of the ecosystem. Its core is the upper limit of the amount of regional water resources that can be developed and utilized to support the population, industry and urban scale. Water resource allocation must take into account both the needs of economic and social development and the needs of ecological protection.

[0003] Current water resource allocation methods often focus on matching current water demand while neglecting the upper limit constraints of regional water resource carrying capacity. They fail to establish a quantitative correlation between the current water resource carrying capacity, the upper limit of carrying capacity, and the amount of water allocated. This can easily lead to problems such as over-exploitation of water resources, encroachment on ecological water use, and mismatch between the scale of regional industrial and urban development and water resource endowment. As a result, ecological and developmental contradictions such as insufficient ecological base flow in rivers and lakes, wetland degradation, and imbalance between water supply and demand cannot be achieved. The synergistic goals of sustainable water resource utilization, high-quality economic and social development, and a virtuous cycle of the ecosystem cannot be realized.

[0004] Based on this, a water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity is now provided, which can eliminate the drawbacks of existing technical solutions. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of this invention is to provide a water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity, so as to solve the problems in the background art.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution: A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity specifically includes the following steps: Step S1: Collect socio-economic development data, water resource development and utilization data, and hydrological monitoring data within a preset time and space range of the target study area, and integrate and preprocess them to obtain standardized multi-source data; Step S2: Based on standardized multi-source data, establish a water resource carrying capacity constraint index system that takes into account both the water demand for ecological protection and the water demand for economic and social development; Step S3: Based on the water resources carrying capacity constraint index system, a weighted comprehensive evaluation combined with a carrying capacity calculation model is used to assess the current water resources carrying capacity of the target study area, calculate the total amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized in the area, and determine the upper limit of the water resources carrying capacity of the area. Step S4: Based on the upper limit of the regional water resource carrying capacity, analyze the water demand of the target study area for population, industry and urban development, and determine the total expected allocation of regional water resources; Step S5: Based on the dynamic linkage characteristics of water resource carrying capacity and water use allocation, and using the water resource carrying load rate as a variable, construct a nonlinear coupling function relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation amount, and establish a dynamic mapping rule between water resource carrying capacity and water use allocation amount. Step S6: Establish a multi-objective water resource allocation model with the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as the constraint boundary and the goals of maximizing water use efficiency and prioritizing ecological water use security. Step S7: Based on the rigidity level and priority of different water demand, determine the weight index composition and the constraint relationship between the indicators corresponding to each water demand, and form a weight allocation system. Step S8: Substitute the total estimated water resource allocation, water resource carrying capacity, and allocation weight system into the multi-objective water resource allocation model to calculate the planned water resource allocation for each type of water use; Step S9: Divide the carrying capacity level according to the water resource carrying capacity assessment results, dynamically adjust the planned water resource allocation for each type of water use based on the carrying capacity level, and output the adjusted regional water resource allocation scheme.

[0007] Furthermore, the socio-economic development data in step S1 includes data on regional population size, industrial structure, urban construction scale, and economic growth rate; the water resource development and utilization data includes total exploitable water resources, current water intake, water consumption of various industries, water resource development and utilization rate, and water supply capacity of water supply projects; the hydrological monitoring data includes river and lake ecological base flow, wetland water demand, groundwater storage, regional precipitation, and surface runoff; and the specific process of integration and preprocessing includes data anomaly removal, missing value interpolation and completion, unified calibration of spatiotemporal dimensions, and unified conversion of units.

[0008] Furthermore, the water resource carrying capacity constraint index system in step S2 includes ecological carrying capacity index, socio-economic carrying capacity index, and water resource development and utilization index. The ecological carrying capacity index is used to quantitatively characterize the water use maintenance capacity of the regional ecosystem. The socio-economic carrying capacity index is used to characterize the water use carrying capacity adaptation capacity of the regional population, industry, and urban scale. The water resource development and utilization index is used to characterize the regional water resource endowment conditions and development and utilization level.

[0009] Furthermore, in step S3, the weighted comprehensive evaluation objects are ecological carrying capacity indicators, socio-economic carrying capacity indicators, and water resource development and utilization indicators. The weights of each indicator are determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the weighting formula is expressed as follows: ,in, The comprehensive score for water resource carrying capacity, For the first The combined weight of the indicators For the standardized first Item index value, The total number of indicators; The carrying capacity calculation model adopts a BP neural network carrying capacity calculation model, which includes an input layer, a single hidden layer, and an output layer. The input layer takes into account the standardized index values ​​and index weights of the water resources carrying capacity constraint index system. The single hidden layer uses the Sigmoid activation function, and the output layer uses a linear activation function. The output is the current carrying capacity value of water resources and the total amount of regional water resources that can be developed and utilized. The total amount of regional water resources that can be developed and utilized is used as the upper limit of the regional water resources carrying capacity.

[0010] Further, step S4 specifically includes: Using the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as a rigid constraint on the total water consumption of the entire region, water demand analysis is carried out using standardized multi-source data and in conjunction with the population development plan, industrial development plan, and urban development plan of the target study area. Among them, the population water demand is calculated based on the population development plan and the residential water quota to calculate the domestic water demand, the industrial water demand is calculated based on the industrial development plan and the industry water quota to calculate the industrial water demand, and the urban water demand is calculated based on the urban development plan to calculate the agricultural and ecological water demand. The total theoretical water demand of the region is then obtained by summarizing the data. The theoretical total water demand of the region is adjusted based on the preset water-saving adjustment standard. If the adjusted theoretical total water demand of the region does not exceed the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity, the adjusted theoretical total water demand of the region is used as the expected total water resources allocation for the corresponding region. If the adjusted theoretical total water demand of the region exceeds the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity, the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity is selected as the expected total water resources allocation for the corresponding region.

[0011] Furthermore, the dynamic linkage between water resource carrying capacity and water allocation in step S5 is specifically as follows: when the water resource carrying capacity load rate changes, the regional adjustable water resource surplus increases or decreases synchronously, the rigid water allocation quota for ecology and domestic use is given priority, the flexible water allocation quota for industry and agriculture is adaptively compressed or expanded with the water resource carrying capacity surplus, and the water resource carrying capacity status constrains the water allocation quota in real time. In step S5, a nonlinear coupling function relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation is constructed, and a dynamic mapping rule between water resource carrying capacity and water allocation quota is established, specifically including: Using water resource carrying capacity rate as a variable, combined with comprehensive parameters of regional water resource carrying capacity, and by fitting the changing trends of historical hydrological and water use statistics data of the target area, a nonlinear coupling relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation is constructed. A dynamic mapping rule is established based on the nonlinear coupling correlation of water resource carrying capacity range changes. The dynamic mapping rule specifically includes: dividing water resource carrying capacity into three levels of level ranges: surplus, critical, and overload, according to the water resource carrying load rate. Each level range is set with a corresponding flexible water allocation quota adjustment standard. The ecological and domestic rigid water allocation quotas are not affected by the water resource carrying capacity range changes.

[0012] Furthermore, in step S6, a multi-objective water resource allocation model is built using the upper limit of the regional water resource carrying capacity as the model constraint boundary. The inputs of the multi-objective water resource allocation model include constraint boundary parameters, water use base parameters, benefit parameters, and dynamic regulation parameters. The constraint boundary parameters include the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity. The water use base parameters include the expected allocation amounts for population water demand, industrial water demand, and urban-scale water demand. The benefit parameters are the unit water volume revenue indicators corresponding to different water use categories such as domestic, industrial, agricultural, and ecological water use. The dynamic regulation parameters are nonlinear coupling correlation coefficients and carrying capacity-water allocation dynamic mapping rule parameters. The outputs of the multi-objective water resource allocation model include the planned allocation of water volume for domestic water use, industrial water use, agricultural water use, and ecological water use.

[0013] Further, step S7 specifically includes: Based on the degree of incompressibility of water use, different levels and priorities of water demand are distinguished and divided into three levels: Level 1 is the highest priority rigid water use, Level 2 is the medium priority rigid water use, and Level 3 is the low priority flexible water use. The weighted indicators for each category of water use are determined according to the priority order, and the constraint relationship between the indicators is determined at the same time: when allocating water, priority is given to ensuring the first level of water demand. After the water demand required for the first level of water demand is met, the remaining available water is used to allocate the second level of water demand, and the remaining water is used for the third level of water demand. By combining the composition of weight indicators and the constraints between indicators, a hierarchical weight allocation system is formed.

[0014] Furthermore, the water resource carrying capacity assessment result in step S9 is the result data generated in step S3 by using a weighted comprehensive evaluation combined with a carrying capacity calculation model, including the current water resource carrying capacity load, the total amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized, and the upper limit of water resource carrying capacity.

[0015] Further, step S9 specifically includes: Based on the water resources carrying capacity assessment results, the current water resources carrying capacity is divided into three levels: surplus, critical, and overload. Based on the defined carrying capacity levels, the planned water resource allocation for each type of water use is dynamically adjusted. Specifically, the dynamic adjustment includes: the planned water resource allocation for the first level of water demand remains unchanged as it is not affected by changes in the carrying capacity level; when the region is in the surplus carrying capacity level, the planned water resource allocation for the second and third level water demand is increased; when the region is in the critical carrying capacity level, the planned water resource allocation for the second and third level water demand continues to be used; when the region is in the overload carrying capacity level, the rigid water use is fully allocated, while the allocation of the second and third level water demand is reduced. After the dynamic adjustment is completed, the adjusted planned water resource allocation is summarized and the adjusted regional water resource allocation plan is output.

[0016] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: 1. Based on regional water resource carrying capacity, this invention provides a water resource allocation method that covers the entire process of data collection, indicator construction, carrying capacity assessment, total quantity verification, model construction, water allocation, and dynamic correction. This method transforms water resource allocation from traditional experience-based and demand-driven allocation to carrying capacity-constrained allocation, thereby avoiding over-exploitation of water resources. 2. This invention constructs a multi-dimensional indicator system that integrates ecology and socio-economic factors. It establishes the relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation through a nonlinear coupling function, and combines a multi-objective water resource allocation model and a hierarchical dynamic correction mechanism to achieve dynamic and differentiated adaptation of water resource allocation. Attached Figure Description

[0017] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the method flow of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0018] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0019] like Figure 1 As shown, this invention provides a water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity, specifically including the following steps: Step S1: Collect socio-economic development data, water resource development and utilization data, and hydrological monitoring data within a preset time and space range of the target study area, and integrate and preprocess them to obtain standardized multi-source data; Step S2: Based on standardized multi-source data, establish a water resource carrying capacity constraint index system that takes into account both the water demand for ecological protection and the water demand for economic and social development; Step S3: Based on the water resources carrying capacity constraint index system, a weighted comprehensive evaluation combined with a carrying capacity calculation model is used to assess the current water resources carrying capacity of the target study area, calculate the total amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized in the area, and determine the upper limit of the water resources carrying capacity of the area. Step S4: Combine the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity, analyze the water demand of population, industry and urban development in the target study area, and determine the total expected allocation of regional water resources; Step S5: Based on the dynamic linkage characteristics of water resource carrying capacity and water use allocation, and using the water resource carrying load rate as a variable, construct a nonlinear coupling function relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation amount, and establish a dynamic mapping rule between water resource carrying capacity and water use allocation amount. Step S6: Establish a multi-objective water resource allocation model with the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as the constraint boundary and the goals of maximizing water use efficiency and prioritizing ecological water use security. Step S7: Based on the rigidity level and priority of different water demand, determine the weight index composition and the constraint relationship between the indicators corresponding to each water demand, and form a weight allocation system. Step S8: Substitute the total estimated water resource allocation, water resource carrying capacity, and allocation weight system into the multi-objective water resource allocation model to calculate the planned water resource allocation for each type of water use. Step S9: Divide the carrying capacity level according to the water resources carrying capacity assessment results, dynamically adjust the planned water resources allocation for each type of water use based on the carrying capacity level, and output the adjusted regional water resources allocation plan. In this method, steps S1 to S9 are executed sequentially, with regional water resource carrying capacity as the variable, and are carried out throughout the entire process of total water resource determination, multi-objective optimization allocation and dynamic correction. The specific technical solution is shown below.

[0020] Specifically, the socio-economic development data in step S1 includes data on regional population size, industrial structure, urban construction scale, and economic growth rate; the water resource development and utilization data includes total exploitable water resources, current water intake, water consumption of various industries, water resource development and utilization rate, and water supply capacity of water supply projects; the hydrological monitoring data includes river and lake ecological base flow, wetland water demand, groundwater storage, regional precipitation, and surface runoff; and the specific integration and preprocessing process includes data anomaly removal, missing value interpolation and completion, unified calibration of spatiotemporal dimensions, and unified conversion of units.

[0021] Specifically, the water resources carrying capacity constraint index system in step S2 includes ecological carrying capacity index, socio-economic carrying capacity index, and water resources development and utilization index. The ecological carrying capacity index is used to quantitatively characterize the water use maintenance capacity of the regional ecosystem, the socio-economic carrying capacity index is used to characterize the water use carrying capacity of the regional population, industry and urban scale, and the water resources development and utilization index is used to characterize the regional water resources endowment conditions and development and utilization level.

[0022] Specifically, in step S3, the weighted comprehensive evaluation objects are the ecological carrying capacity index, the socio-economic carrying capacity index, and the water resource development and utilization index. The weight of each index is determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the weighting formula is expressed as follows: ,in, The comprehensive score for water resource carrying capacity, For the first The combined weight of the indicators For the standardized first Item index value, This represents the total number of indicators; The carrying capacity calculation model adopts a BP neural network carrying capacity calculation model, which includes an input layer, a single hidden layer, and an output layer. The input layer is the standardized index values ​​and index weights of the water resources carrying capacity constraint index system. The number of neurons in the input layer is consistent with the total number of ecological carrying capacity index, socio-economic carrying capacity index, and water resources development and utilization index in step S2. The single hidden layer uses the Sigmoid activation function, and the output layer uses the linear activation function. The output is the current carrying capacity load value of water resources and the total amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized in the region. The total amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized in the region is used as the upper limit of the regional water resources carrying capacity. The bearing capacity calculation model is expressed by the following formula: ,in, For the hidden layer Node output, It is the Sigmoid activation function. The connection weights from the input layer to the hidden layer. For hidden layer bias, For the model number Item output, Corresponding to the current carrying capacity of water resources, The total amount of water resources available for development and utilization in the corresponding region The connection weights from the hidden layer to the output layer. For output layer bias, For the standardized first Item index value, The total number of indicators. This represents the number of neurons in the hidden layer. In practical applications, based on the three-level constraint indicators in the water resources carrying capacity constraint index system constructed in step S2, several measured index data are selected, and firstly, 3... After removing outliers, the combined weights are solved using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method, respectively. Substituting the values ​​into the weighted formula yields the comprehensive water resource carrying capacity score, which includes ecological carrying capacity, socio-economic carrying capacity, and water resource development and utilization indicators. A three-layer backpropagation (BP) neural network is then constructed, with the number of input layer neurons determined by the number of indicators. The hidden layer neurons are obtained using empirical formulas. Once determined, the standardized indicator values ​​and indicator weights are input into the trained carrying capacity calculation model. The model simultaneously outputs the current water resource carrying capacity value and the total amount of regional water resources that can be developed and utilized. The total amount of regional water resources that can be developed and utilized is used as the upper limit of the regional water resource carrying capacity. The above three output results are directly imported into step S4. Combined with population development planning, industrial development planning, and urban development planning, the water demand of each industry is calculated, and the total expected allocation of water resources is constrained and verified. Specifically, the current carrying capacity of water resources is calculated using a carrying capacity rate function, and the calculation formula is as follows: , The carrying capacity rate of regional water resources is the quantitative value of the carrying capacity. The total actual water consumption of the entire society in the region is calculated by summing up water consumption for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and ecological purposes from standardized multi-source data. The baseline for available water resources in the region is derived from standardized multi-source data calculations. The total exploitable water resources in a region are determined by the ecologically guaranteed minimum water consumption, the water lost due to natural and engineering-related losses such as surface water retention and groundwater extraction, and the regional base of exploitable water resources. The upper limit of the regional water resources carrying capacity is determined by the water resources development control coefficient, expressed as: , This represents the upper limit of the region's water resource carrying capacity. This is the water resource development and control coefficient, with a value of 0.7 for ecologically sensitive areas and 0.9 for conventional areas. This value can be adjusted according to actual needs. The total amount of exploitable water resources in the region is represented by the water resources development and control coefficient, which is determined based on the regional ecological control red line and water resources management policies.

[0023] After calculating the upper limit of the region's water resource carrying capacity, this upper limit needs to be used as a hard constraint to reduce and determine the region's future total water demand, as shown in step S4, which specifically includes: Using the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as a rigid constraint on the total water consumption of the entire region, water demand analysis is carried out using standardized multi-source data and in conjunction with the population development plan, industrial development plan, and urban development plan of the target study area. Among them, the population water demand is calculated based on the population development plan and the residential water quota to calculate the domestic water demand; the industrial water demand is calculated based on the industrial development plan and the industry water quota to calculate the industrial water demand; and the urban scale water demand is calculated based on the urban development plan to calculate the agricultural and ecological water demand. The total theoretical water demand of the region is obtained by summing them up. The water quota is the unit main water consumption defined by industry norms / local water affairs standards, and the theoretical total water demand is the water consumption value under ideal conditions. In this step, the calculation of the region's theoretical total water demand includes the following steps: Combining the standardized multi-source data on population, industry, urban construction, hydrology, and industry water use quotas preprocessed in step S1, and referring to population development plans, industrial development plans, and urban development plans, water use is calculated separately into three categories: domestic water use, industrial water use, and agricultural and ecological water use. Domestic water use is based on the water demand of the population. According to the size of the permanent and temporary population at the end of the planning period, the urban and rural residents' domestic water quota, the annual total water demand of residents is calculated by converting it into the number of days in the year, and then the municipal sanitation and public building supporting domestic water use are added to obtain the theoretical water demand for domestic water. Industrial water demand is based on the planned output value, production scale, and water consumption quota per 10,000 yuan of output value of each industry in the industrial plan. Production water demand is calculated by industry, and the corresponding factory area circulating water replenishment and cooling water consumption are included to summarize the theoretical water demand of industrial water. Agricultural and ecological water use is a city-scale supporting water use. It is calculated by combining parameters such as cultivated land area, irrigated area, and crop irrigation quota, to calculate the irrigation water use for planting industry, and superimposed with the water use for livestock and poultry breeding to obtain the theoretical water demand for agricultural water use. Based on parameters such as the ecological base flow control targets of rivers and lakes, wetland water replenishment quota, and urban green space irrigation quota, the theoretical water demand for ecological water use is calculated.

[0024] The total theoretical water demand for the region can be obtained by summing up the above theoretical water demand. The theoretical total water demand of the region is corrected by combining the preset water-saving correction standard. The predetermined water-saving correction coefficient of the region is used to correct the theoretical total water demand of the region. The predetermined water-saving correction coefficient of the region is determined by the regional water-saving plan or water use efficiency target, and the value range is usually between 0.75 and 0.95. The smaller the coefficient, the greater the water-saving effort. If the corrected theoretical total water demand of the region does not exceed the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity, the corrected theoretical total water demand of the region is used as the expected total water resources allocation of the corresponding region. If the corrected theoretical total water demand of the region exceeds the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity, the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity is selected as the expected total water resources allocation of the corresponding region.

[0025] Considering that the total estimated allocation of water resources is a static total indicator, while the water resource carrying capacity is dynamic, this invention constructs a dynamic response relationship between carrying capacity and real-time allocation, as shown in step S5. The dynamic linkage characteristics of water resource carrying capacity and water allocation are as follows: when the water resource carrying capacity load rate changes, the regional adjustable water resource surplus increases or decreases synchronously, the rigid water allocation quota for ecology and domestic use is given priority, the flexible water allocation quota for industry and agriculture is adaptively compressed or expanded with the water resource carrying capacity surplus, and the water resource carrying capacity status constrains the water allocation quota in real time. Construct a nonlinear coupling function relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation, and establish dynamic mapping rules between water resource carrying capacity and water use allocation quotas, specifically including: Using the water resource carrying capacity rate as a variable, an increase in the water resource carrying capacity rate indicates that water resource development is approaching saturation and the amount of water available for regional adjustment is decreasing, while a decrease in the value indicates that the water resource surplus is increasing. By combining the comprehensive parameters of regional water resource carrying capacity and fitting the changing trends through historical hydrological and water use statistics of the target area, a nonlinear coupling relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation is constructed. Based on the nonlinear coupling correlation of water resource carrying capacity range changes, this invention establishes dynamic mapping rules. By combining these dynamic mapping rules with subsequent corrections to carrying capacity levels, the water resource allocation method achieves adaptive adjustment to regional hydrological changes and socio-economic fluctuations, improving timeliness. Specifically, the dynamic mapping rules include: dividing water resource carrying capacity into three levels—surplus, critical, and overload—according to the water resource carrying capacity load rate. The surplus level indicates a low load rate and sufficient water resources; the critical level indicates a load rate approaching the upper limit and water resources are scarce; and the overload level indicates a load rate exceeding the limit and water resources are in short supply. Based on endowment development, corresponding flexible water allocation quota adjustment standards are set for each level range. The surplus level mapping standard is: rigid water use remains unchanged, and the flexible water use quota for industry and agriculture is increased. The critical level standard is: rigid water use remains unchanged, and the water allocation for industry and agriculture maintains the original planned quota. The overload level standard is: rigid water use is fully guaranteed, and the flexible water allocation for industry and agriculture is reduced. The rigid water use quota for ecology and domestic use is not affected by changes in the water resource carrying capacity range. The rigid water use quota is fixed and is not adjusted by fluctuations in carrying capacity. It is given priority to ensure full guarantee. The water allocation quota for flexible water use increases or decreases adaptively with the regional adjustable water resource surplus.

[0026] Specifically, step S6 uses the nonlinear coupling correlation coefficient determined by the above dynamic mapping rules and the dynamic mapping rule parameters of carrying capacity-water distribution to build a multi-objective water resource allocation model with the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as the model constraint boundary. The inputs of the multi-objective water resource allocation model include constraint boundary parameters, water use base parameters, benefit parameters, and dynamic regulation parameters. The constraint boundary parameters include the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity. The water use base parameters include the expected allocation of water demand for the population, industry, and urban scale. The benefit parameters are the unit water revenue indicators corresponding to different water use categories such as domestic, industrial, agricultural, and ecological. The dynamic regulation parameters are the nonlinear coupling correlation coefficient and the dynamic mapping rule parameters of carrying capacity-water allocation. The outputs of the multi-objective water resource allocation model include the planned allocation of water for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and ecological water use. All models in this method need to be pre-trained. The training samples are derived from the historical long-series data of the target area and the comparative areas with similar hydrology and socio-economic development, including the standardized values ​​of each indicator and the corresponding actual water resource carrying capacity and total exploitable amount. The root mean square error is used as the convergence criterion until the model accuracy meets the requirements.

[0027] Specifically, considering that the optimization solution of the model requires clear priority guidance, this invention establishes a weight allocation system based on the importance of different water demand, as shown in step S7, which specifically includes: Based on the degree of incompressibility of water use, different levels of rigidity and priority of water demand are distinguished into three levels: Level 1 is the highest priority rigid water use, such as ecological water use and urban and rural residential water use. The water volume cannot be compressed and is legally prioritized for full water allocation. Level 2 is the medium priority rigid water use, such as basic industrial water use and large-scale necessary livestock and poultry water use. The room for compression is limited. Level 3 is the low priority flexible water use, such as water-intensive and extensive industries and non-essential landscape irrigation. The adjustment space is the largest. The weight coefficient is set according to the priority. The higher the priority, the larger the weight value. Level 1 water use has the highest fixed weight to ensure that water volume is allocated first during model optimization. Level 2 is next, and Level 3 has the lowest weight. The weighted indicators for each category of water use are determined according to the priority order, and the constraint relationship between the indicators is determined at the same time: when allocating water, priority is given to ensuring the first level of water demand. After the water demand required for the first level of water demand is met, the remaining available water is used to allocate the second level of water demand, and the remaining water is used for the third level of water demand. By combining the composition of weight indicators and the constraints between indicators, a hierarchical weight allocation system is formed.

[0028] Considering that the planned water resource allocation calculated in step S8 is based on the static result of the current planning scenario, but the water resource carrying capacity fluctuates between years and within a year, this invention dynamically corrects it to enhance adaptability, as shown in step S9, specifically including: Based on the water resources carrying capacity assessment results, the current water resources carrying capacity is divided into three carrying capacity levels: surplus, critical, and overload. The water resources carrying capacity assessment results are the result data generated in step S3 by using a weighted comprehensive evaluation combined with a carrying capacity calculation model, including the current water resources carrying capacity, the total amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized, and the upper limit of water resources carrying capacity. Based on the defined carrying capacity levels, the planned water resource allocation for each type of water use is dynamically adjusted. The dynamic adjustment specifically includes: the planned water resource allocation for the first level of water demand remains unchanged and is not affected by changes in the carrying capacity level; when the region is in the surplus carrying capacity level, the planned water resource allocation for the second and third level water demand is increased; when the region is in the critical carrying capacity level, the planned water resource allocation for the second and third level water demand continues to use the original planned water resource allocation; when the region is in the overload carrying capacity level, the rigid water use is fully allocated, and the allocation of the second and third level water demand is reduced. After the dynamic adjustment is completed, the adjusted planned water resource allocation is summarized and the adjusted regional water resource allocation plan is output.

[0029] In summary, to address the technical problems of existing water resource allocation, such as the lack of upper limit constraints on carrying capacity and insufficient coordination between ecological and social water use, this invention provides a water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity. This method uses the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as a rigid constraint, coordinates ecological protection and socio-economic water demand, and achieves scientific, fair, efficient, and sustainable allocation of regional water resources through multi-dimensional indicator evaluation, multi-objective modeling, and hierarchical dynamic correction, thus realizing a water resource allocation that balances ecological protection and socio-economic development.

[0030] The above description is merely a specific embodiment of this application, but the scope of protection of this application is not limited thereto. Any variations or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in this application should be included within the scope of protection of this application. Therefore, the scope of protection of this application should be determined by the scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity, characterized in that, Specifically, the following steps are included: Step S1: Collect socio-economic development data, water resource development and utilization data, and hydrological monitoring data within a preset time and space range of the target study area, and integrate and preprocess them to obtain standardized multi-source data; Step S2: Based on standardized multi-source data, establish a water resource carrying capacity constraint index system that takes into account both the water demand for ecological protection and the water demand for economic and social development; Step S3: Based on the water resources carrying capacity constraint index system, a weighted comprehensive evaluation combined with a carrying capacity calculation model is used to assess the current water resources carrying capacity of the target study area, calculate the total amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized in the area, and determine the upper limit of the water resources carrying capacity of the area. Step S4: Based on the upper limit of the regional water resource carrying capacity, analyze the water demand of the target study area for population, industry and urban development, and determine the total expected allocation of regional water resources; Step S5: Based on the dynamic linkage characteristics of water resource carrying capacity and water use allocation, and using the water resource carrying load rate as a variable, construct a nonlinear coupling function relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation amount, and establish a dynamic mapping rule between water resource carrying capacity and water use allocation amount. Step S6: Establish a multi-objective water resource allocation model with the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as the constraint boundary and the goals of maximizing water use efficiency and prioritizing ecological water use security. Step S7: Based on the rigidity level and priority of different water demand, determine the weight index composition and the constraint relationship between the indicators corresponding to each water demand, and form a weight allocation system. Step S8: Substitute the total estimated water resource allocation, water resource carrying capacity, and allocation weight system into the multi-objective water resource allocation model to calculate the planned water resource allocation for each type of water use; Step S9: Divide the carrying capacity level according to the water resource carrying capacity assessment results, dynamically adjust the planned water resource allocation for each type of water use based on the carrying capacity level, and output the adjusted regional water resource allocation scheme.

2. The water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 1, characterized in that, The socio-economic development data in step S1 includes regional population size, industrial structure, urban construction scale, and economic growth rate data. The water resource development and utilization data includes total exploitable water resources, current water intake, water consumption of various industries, water resource development and utilization rate, and water supply capacity data of water supply projects. The hydrological monitoring data includes river and lake ecological base flow, wetland water demand, groundwater storage, regional precipitation, and surface runoff. The specific process of integration and preprocessing includes data anomaly removal, missing value interpolation and completion, unified calibration of spatiotemporal dimensions, and unified conversion of units.

3. The water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 1, characterized in that, The water resources carrying capacity constraint index system in step S2 includes ecological carrying capacity index, socio-economic carrying capacity index, and water resources development and utilization index. The ecological carrying capacity index is used to quantitatively characterize the water use maintenance capacity of the regional ecosystem. The socio-economic carrying capacity index is used to characterize the water use carrying capacity adaptation capacity of the regional population, industry and urban scale. The water resources development and utilization index is used to characterize the regional water resources endowment conditions and development and utilization level.

4. A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S3, the weighted comprehensive evaluation objects are ecological carrying capacity indicators, socio-economic carrying capacity indicators, and water resource development and utilization indicators. The weight of each indicator is determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the weighting formula is expressed as follows: ,in, The comprehensive score for water resource carrying capacity, For the first The combined weight of the indicators For the standardized first Item index value, This represents the total number of indicators; The carrying capacity calculation model adopts a BP neural network carrying capacity calculation model, which includes an input layer, a single hidden layer, and an output layer. The input layer takes into account the standardized index values ​​and index weights of the water resources carrying capacity constraint index system. The single hidden layer uses the Sigmoid activation function, and the output layer uses a linear activation function. The output is the current carrying capacity value of water resources and the total amount of regional water resources that can be developed and utilized. The total amount of regional water resources that can be developed and utilized is used as the upper limit of the regional water resources carrying capacity.

5. A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 1, characterized in that, Step S4 specifically includes: Using the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as a rigid constraint on the total water consumption of the entire region, water demand analysis is carried out using standardized multi-source data and in conjunction with the population development plan, industrial development plan, and urban development plan of the target study area. Among them, the population water demand is calculated based on the population development plan and the residential water quota to calculate the domestic water demand, the industrial water demand is calculated based on the industrial development plan and the industry water quota to calculate the industrial water demand, and the urban water demand is calculated based on the urban development plan to calculate the agricultural and ecological water demand. The total theoretical water demand of the region is then obtained by summarizing the data. The theoretical total water demand of the region is adjusted based on the preset water-saving adjustment standard. If the adjusted theoretical total water demand of the region does not exceed the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity, the adjusted theoretical total water demand of the region is used as the expected total water resources allocation for the corresponding region. If the adjusted theoretical total water demand of the region exceeds the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity, the upper limit of the region's water resources carrying capacity is selected as the expected total water resources allocation for the corresponding region.

6. A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 1, characterized in that, The dynamic linkage between water resource carrying capacity and water allocation in step S5 is as follows: when the water resource carrying capacity load rate changes, the regional adjustable water resource surplus increases or decreases synchronously, the rigid water allocation quota for ecology and domestic use is given priority, the flexible water allocation quota for industry and agriculture is adaptively compressed or expanded with the water resource carrying capacity surplus, and the water resource carrying capacity status constrains the water allocation quota in real time. In step S5, a nonlinear coupling function relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation is constructed, and a dynamic mapping rule between water resource carrying capacity and water allocation quota is established, specifically including: Using water resource carrying capacity rate as a variable, combined with comprehensive parameters of regional water resource carrying capacity, and by fitting the changing trends of historical hydrological and water use statistics data of the target area, a nonlinear coupling relationship between water resource carrying capacity and water resource allocation is constructed. A dynamic mapping rule is established based on the nonlinear coupling correlation of water resource carrying capacity range changes. The dynamic mapping rule specifically includes: dividing water resource carrying capacity into three levels of level ranges: surplus, critical, and overload, according to the water resource carrying load rate. Each level range is set with a corresponding flexible water allocation quota adjustment standard. The ecological and domestic rigid water allocation quotas are not affected by the water resource carrying capacity range changes.

7. A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 1, characterized in that, Step S6 uses the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity as the model constraint boundary to build a multi-objective water resource allocation model. The inputs of the multi-objective water resource allocation model include constraint boundary parameters, water use base parameters, benefit parameters, and dynamic regulation parameters. The constraint boundary parameters include the upper limit of regional water resource carrying capacity. The water use base parameters include the expected allocation amounts for population water demand, industrial water demand, and urban-scale water demand. The benefit parameters are the unit water volume revenue indicators corresponding to different water use categories such as domestic, industrial, agricultural, and ecological water use. The dynamic regulation parameters are nonlinear coupling correlation coefficients and carrying capacity-water allocation dynamic mapping rule parameters. The outputs of the multi-objective water resource allocation model include the planned allocation of water volume for domestic water use, industrial water use, agricultural water use, and ecological water use.

8. A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 6, characterized in that, Step S7 specifically includes: Based on the degree of incompressibility of water use, different levels and priorities of water demand are distinguished and divided into three levels: Level 1 is the highest priority rigid water use, Level 2 is the medium priority rigid water use, and Level 3 is the low priority flexible water use. The weighted indicators for each category of water use are determined according to the priority order, and the constraint relationship between the indicators is determined at the same time: when allocating water, priority is given to ensuring the first level of water demand. After the water demand required for the first level of water demand is met, the remaining available water is used to allocate the second level of water demand, and the remaining water is used for the third level of water demand. By combining the composition of weight indicators and the constraints between indicators, a hierarchical weight allocation system is formed.

9. A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 1, characterized in that, The water resources carrying capacity assessment result in step S9 is the result data generated in step S3 by using a weighted comprehensive evaluation combined with a carrying capacity calculation model, which includes the current water resources carrying capacity load, the total amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized, and the upper limit of water resources carrying capacity.

10. A water resource allocation method based on regional water resource carrying capacity according to claim 8, characterized in that, Step S9 specifically includes: Based on the water resources carrying capacity assessment results, the current water resources carrying capacity is divided into three levels: surplus, critical, and overload. Based on the defined carrying capacity levels, the planned water resource allocation for each type of water use is dynamically adjusted. Specifically, the dynamic adjustment includes: the planned water resource allocation for the first level of water demand remains unchanged as it is not affected by changes in the carrying capacity level; when the region is in the surplus carrying capacity level, the planned water resource allocation for the second and third level water demand is increased; when the region is in the critical carrying capacity level, the planned water resource allocation for the second and third level water demand continues to be used; when the region is in the overload carrying capacity level, the rigid water use is fully allocated, while the allocation of the second and third level water demand is reduced. After the dynamic adjustment is completed, the adjusted planned water resource allocation is summarized and the adjusted regional water resource allocation plan is output.

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