Method, system, device and medium for multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation of artificial suppression intervention effect

Abstract

The application provides a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation method, system, device and medium for artificial lightning suppression intervention effect, comprising the following steps: obtaining the variation of the line lightning trip-out rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention by using a pre-constructed correlation model of lightning disaster factors and equipment failure risk; obtaining the power grid lightning failure risk reduction rate after artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the ratio of the variation of the line lightning trip-out rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention to the predicted lightning trip-out rate without artificial intervention; constructing a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index based on the power grid lightning failure risk reduction rate, a meteorological intervention effect index and an economic benefit index; and performing grading evaluation of the artificial lightning suppression intervention effect based on the power grid lightning failure risk reduction rate and the multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index. The application can be evaluated from multiple dimensions, realizes joint evaluation of meteorology, equipment and benefits, and is more scientific and reasonable.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power grid disaster prevention and mitigation and weather modification technology, specifically to a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method, system, equipment and medium for artificial lightning suppression intervention. Background Technology

[0002] With the intensification of global climate change and the increasing frequency of severe convective weather events, lightning activity poses a serious threat to the safe operation of power grids. Statistics show that in the past five years, transmission line outages caused by severe convective weather disasters accounted for over 43%, with lightning tripping being one of the most common types of faults, severely impacting the safe and stable operation of the power grid. To reduce the risk of lightning damage to power grid equipment at its source, academia and engineering are exploring the application of weather modification technology to power grid lightning protection. Research indicates that by seeding high-performance suppression materials into severe convective thunderstorm clouds, it is possible to alter the charge structure and electrification process of the clouds, thereby suppressing or weakening the intensity of lightning activity and reducing the risk of lightning damage to power grid equipment. Currently, research in this area has entered the stage of tackling key technical challenges across the entire chain of "situational awareness—quantitative prediction—coordinated intervention—effect evaluation." Effect evaluation, as a crucial link in verifying the effectiveness of intervention, urgently requires the establishment of professional assessment methods for lightning protection of power grid equipment. However, existing technologies in the effect evaluation stage have the following problems: (1) Mismatch in objectives and lack of evaluation indicators specific to the power grid. Existing methods for evaluating the effects of weather modification are mainly geared towards traditional operational scenarios such as agricultural hail suppression, reservoir water replenishment, and artificial fog dissipation. These methods take the "effect of meteorological intervention itself" as the evaluation objective, and the evaluation indicators are all purely meteorological parameters, which cannot reflect the actual reduction benefits of intervention operations on the risk of lightning strike failures of power grid equipment. For example, a lightning suppression operation reduces the frequency of ground flashes in the operation area by 30%, but traditional methods cannot provide an answer to the specific degree of reduction in the risk of lightning tripping of a ±800kV UHVDC line.

[0003] (2) The assessment dimensions are too singular, and a comprehensive assessment framework integrating multiple dimensions has not been established. Currently, the main methods for assessing the effects of weather modification at home and abroad include physical assessment, statistical assessment, and model assessment. All of the above methods evaluate from a single meteorological dimension and fail to integrate information from multiple dimensions such as the effects of meteorological intervention, power grid equipment response, and changes in economic losses, making it difficult to form a comprehensive quantitative basis for power grid lightning protection decision-making.

[0004] (3) Lack of a quantitative model for the cascading correlation of "meteorology-equipment-benefits". As a complex disaster-bearing body, the changes in lightning disaster-causing factors in the power grid need to go through a complete causal chain of "changes in ground flash activity → changes in line lightning tripping probability → changes in user power outage losses" before they can be reflected as disaster reduction benefits. Existing assessment methods have not established a quantitative description of this complete chain, and cannot fundamentally quantify the comprehensive lightning protection value of human intervention operations for the power grid.

[0005] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive evaluation method and system for the effect of artificial lightning suppression intervention in the protection of power grid equipment. This system should be able to break through the limitations of traditional single meteorological indicators and establish a quantitative evaluation system covering the entire chain of "meteorological intervention effect → power grid lightning fault risk → economic benefits," thus filling the technological gap in the field of evaluating the effect of artificial intervention in power grid lightning disasters. Summary of the Invention

[0006] To address the problems of misaligned objectives, limited evaluation dimensions, and lack of a cascading correlation model between meteorology, equipment, and benefits in existing methods for evaluating the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression, this invention proposes a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention, including: The change in line lightning tripping rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention was obtained by using a pre-constructed correlation model between lightning disaster factors and equipment failure risk. The reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk after artificial lightning suppression intervention is obtained by comparing the change in line lightning trip rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention with the predicted lightning trip rate before artificial intervention. A multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index is constructed based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate, meteorological intervention effect index, and economic benefit index. The effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention is graded and evaluated based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate and multi-dimensional comprehensive efficiency evaluation index. The correlation model is constructed based on the quantitative correlation between the changes in lightning-causing factors and the changes in line lightning tripping rate; the meteorological intervention effect index is used to characterize the changes in meteorological indicators before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention; and the economic benefit index is used to characterize the relationship between the reduction in economic losses caused by avoiding line lightning tripping and shortening power outage time and the input cost.

[0007] Optionally, the correlation model is characterized by a tripping rate calculation function established based on an electrical geometry model or a procedure method.

[0008] Optionally, the expression for the association model is:

[0009] in, This represents the change in the line lightning trip rate. This represents the change in lightning-causing factors. For the set of line characteristic parameters, This is the function for calculating the trip rate.

[0010] Optionally, the change in lightning-causing factors includes the change in ground flash density. Changes in the cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitude .

[0011] Optionally, the line characteristic parameter set Includes one or more of the following: Line insulation level, tower grounding resistance, lightning protection angle, terrain coefficient, and line voltage level.

[0012] Optionally, the multidimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index The calculation formula is:

[0013] in, As an index of the effectiveness of meteorological intervention, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, For economic efficiency index, These are the weighting coefficients. .

[0014] Optionally, the meteorological intervention effect index is a normalized weighted sum of changes in multidimensional meteorological indicators.

[0015] Optionally, the multidimensional meteorological indicators include one or more of the following: The rate of reduction in lightning frequency, the rate of attenuation of lightning density, the rate of change in lightning current amplitude distribution, and the rate of attenuation of radar echo parameters.

[0016] Optionally, the economic benefit index The calculation formula is:

[0017] in, To mitigate the economic losses avoided by manual lightning suppression intervention, This represents the total cost of manual lightning suppression intervention operations.

[0018] Optionally, the predicted lightning trip rate is obtained in the following way: A non-operational control cloud cluster with similar physical characteristics to the target thunderstorm cloud cluster was selected, and the equivalent lightning trip rate of the affected area of ​​the control cloud cluster was used to estimate the trip rate. or, The lightning activity without intervention is simulated using a numerical weather prediction model, and the simulated lightning parameters are input into the correlation model for calculation.

[0019] Optionally, the graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index includes: when and When, it is judged as Level I, significantly effective; when %and When, it is judged as Level II, valid; when and When, it is judged as Level III, general; when At that time, it was judged to be Level IV, and therefore invalid; in, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, It is a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index.

[0020] A second aspect of this invention provides a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention, comprising: The first acquisition module is used to obtain the change in line lightning tripping rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention by using a pre-built correlation model between lightning disaster factors and equipment failure risk. The second acquisition module is used to obtain the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk after artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the ratio of the change in line lightning trip rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention to the predicted lightning trip rate when no artificial intervention was implemented. The module is used to construct a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate, meteorological intervention effect index, and economic benefit index. The evaluation module is used to conduct a graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index. The correlation model is constructed based on the quantitative correlation between the changes in lightning-causing factors and the changes in line lightning tripping rate; the meteorological intervention effect index is used to characterize the changes in meteorological indicators before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention; and the economic benefit index is used to characterize the relationship between the reduction in economic losses caused by avoiding line lightning tripping and shortening power outage time and the input cost.

[0021] Optionally, the association model in the first acquisition module is characterized by a tripping rate calculation function established based on an electrical geometric model or a procedure method.

[0022] Optionally, the expression for the associated model in the first acquisition module is:

[0023] in, This represents the change in the line lightning trip rate. This represents the change in lightning-causing factors. For the set of line characteristic parameters, This is the function for calculating the trip rate.

[0024] Optionally, the changes in lightning-causing factors in the first acquisition module include changes in ground flash density. Changes in the cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitude .

[0025] Optionally, the first acquisition module contains a set of line feature parameters. Includes one or more of the following: Line insulation level, tower grounding resistance, lightning protection angle, terrain coefficient, and line voltage level.

[0026] Optionally, the multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index in the construction module The calculation formula is:

[0027] in, As an index of the effectiveness of meteorological intervention, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, For economic efficiency index, These are the weighting coefficients. .

[0028] Optionally, the meteorological intervention effect index in the construction module is a normalized weighted sum of changes in multidimensional meteorological indicators.

[0029] Optionally, the multidimensional meteorological indicators in the construction module include one or more of the following: The rate of reduction in lightning frequency, the rate of attenuation of lightning density, the rate of change in lightning current amplitude distribution, and the rate of attenuation of radar echo parameters.

[0030] Optionally, the economic benefit index in the construction module The calculation formula is:

[0031] in, To mitigate the economic losses avoided by manual lightning suppression intervention, This represents the total cost of manual lightning suppression intervention operations.

[0032] Optionally, the predicted lightning trip rate in the second acquisition module is obtained in the following way: A non-operational control cloud cluster with similar physical characteristics to the target thunderstorm cloud cluster was selected, and the equivalent lightning trip rate of the affected area of ​​the control cloud cluster was used to estimate the trip rate. or, The lightning activity without intervention is simulated using a numerical weather prediction model, and the simulated lightning parameters are input into the correlation model for calculation.

[0033] Optionally, the evaluation module performs a graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index, including: when and When, it is judged as Level I, significantly effective; when %and When, it is judged as Level II, valid; when and When, it is judged as Level III, general; when At that time, it was judged to be Level IV, and therefore invalid; in, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, It is a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index.

[0034] In another aspect, the present invention also provides a computing device, comprising: at least one processor and a memory; The memory is used to store one or more programs; When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention, as described above, is implemented.

[0035] In another aspect, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when the computer program is executed, it implements a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for the artificial lightning suppression intervention effect as described above.

[0036] Compared with existing technologies, this invention provides a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method, system, equipment, and medium for artificial lightning suppression intervention, including: obtaining the change in line lightning tripping rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention using a pre-constructed correlation model between lightning-causing factors and equipment failure risk; obtaining the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk after artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the ratio of the change in line lightning tripping rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention to the predicted lightning tripping rate without artificial intervention; constructing a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate, meteorological intervention effect index, and economic benefit index; and conducting a graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index; wherein, the correlation model is constructed based on the quantitative correlation between the change in lightning-causing factors and the change in line lightning tripping rate; the meteorological intervention effect index is used to characterize the changes in meteorological indicators before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention; the economic benefit index is used to characterize the relationship between the reduction in economic losses caused by avoiding line lightning tripping and shortening power outage time and the input cost; the beneficial effects of this invention are: (1) This invention pioneered the core indicator of “power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate”, filling a gap in the field. For the first time, the “power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate” was used as the core indicator for evaluating the effect of artificial intervention, and a clear method for obtaining it was given. The evaluation was upgraded from “the effect of meteorological intervention itself” to “the actual benefit of intervention operations to power grid lightning protection”, filling the gap in the method of evaluating the effect of artificial intervention in power grid lightning disasters.

[0037] (2) Establish a cascaded evaluation model for the entire chain of "lightning disaster-causing factors - equipment failure risk - economic benefits". This model breaks through the limitations of traditional single meteorological dimension evaluation and uses a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index. The system's construction, for the first time, organically integrates the three dimensions of meteorological effects, safety benefits, and economic benefits into a standardized score, realizing a complete causal chain quantitative analysis from "changes in lightning parameters → reduced risk of lightning tripping → reduced economic losses".

[0038] (3) Multidimensional comprehensive evaluation with adjustable weights and strong adaptability. Weight coefficients The lightning protection priorities can be dynamically adjusted according to different power grid scenarios (UHVDC transmission channels, 220kV and above backbone networks, distribution lines, etc.) – increasing the focus when emphasizing line safety benefits. The value is increased when focusing on verifying the physical effects of meteorological interventions. Value, increased when focusing on economic analysis Values ​​– assessment flexibility and adaptability are significantly enhanced.

[0039] (4) Establish a dual threshold criterion for four-level effect grading and standardize decision output. By combining the bottom line threshold of η=10% with the three-level division of E, a two-level grading logic of "bottom line pass + performance differentiation" is formed - first determine whether the minimum risk reduction requirements are met, and then subdivide the quality of the qualified work according to the comprehensive performance evaluation index, which solves the problem of traditional evaluation "only numbers without conclusions".

[0040] (5) The device is implemented in a standardized manner, with clear hardware connections and a high degree of automation. Through the organic combination of the first acquisition module, the second acquisition module, the construction module and the evaluation module, the entire process from data acquisition to effect grading is automated. Attached Figure Description

[0041] Figure 1 The flowchart shows the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention proposed in this invention. Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the lightning trip rate acquisition process proposed in this invention; Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram showing the weight allocation of the multidimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index proposed in this invention in different scenarios; Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the process for classifying and evaluating the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate and multi-dimensional comprehensive efficiency evaluation index proposed in this invention. Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the complete application architecture of the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention proposed in this invention. Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention proposed in this invention; Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram of the electronic device proposed in this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0042] This invention proposes a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method, system, equipment, and medium for artificial lightning suppression intervention. It aims to solve the problems of mismatched objectives, single evaluation dimensions, and lack of a "meteorology-equipment-benefit" cascade correlation model in existing artificial intervention effectiveness evaluation methods. It breaks through the limitations of traditional single meteorological indicators and establishes a quantitative evaluation system for the entire chain of "meteorological intervention effect → power grid lightning fault risk → economic benefits", filling the technical gap in the field of artificial intervention effectiveness evaluation for power grid lightning disasters.

[0043] Example 1: A multidimensional comprehensive efficacy evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention, such as Figure 1 As shown, it includes the following steps S1 to S4.

[0044] S1, the change in line lightning tripping rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention is obtained by using a pre-constructed correlation model between lightning disaster-causing factors and equipment failure risk; wherein, the correlation model is constructed based on the quantitative correlation between the change in lightning disaster-causing factors and the change in line lightning tripping rate.

[0045] S2, the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk after artificial lightning suppression intervention is obtained by comparing the change in line lightning trip rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention with the predicted lightning trip rate when no artificial intervention is implemented.

[0046] S3. A multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index is constructed based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate, meteorological intervention effect index, and economic benefit index. The meteorological intervention effect index is used to characterize the changes in meteorological indicators before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention. The economic benefit index is used to characterize the relationship between the reduction in economic losses caused by avoiding line lightning tripping and shortening power outage time and the input cost.

[0047] S4. The effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention is graded and evaluated based on the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk and the multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index.

[0048] Before step S1, multi-source data can be collected throughout the entire process of manual lightning suppression intervention, from pre-operation to post-operation, for use in subsequent steps. This multi-source data includes: 1. Meteorological data: radar echo parameters (combined reflectivity CR, echo top height ET, vertical cumulative liquid water content VIL), lightning location data (ground flash frequency, ground flash density, probability distribution of lightning current amplitude), atmospheric electric field data (ground electric field strength and reversal characteristics). 2. Power grid equipment data: transmission line lightning trip records, lightning overvoltage / fault current waveforms, equipment insulator flashover status, surge arrester operation count and leakage current; 3. Operational data: catalyst application time, location, dosage, application method (rocket / anti-aircraft gun / aircraft / drone), and deployment information at the operation site; 4. Environmental data: topography, soil resistivity, geographical coordinates and topology of power grid facilities.

[0049] Spatiotemporal matching and standardization preprocessing are performed on the above multi-source data to construct a comprehensive dataset under a unified spatiotemporal coordinate system.

[0050] In a further preferred embodiment, in step S1, the correlation model is characterized by a tripping rate calculation function established based on an electrical geometric model or procedural method. Taking into account the correlation between the transmission line lightning tripping rate and the ground flash density and lightning current amplitude probability distribution, the expression of the correlation model is:

[0051] in, This represents the change in the line lightning trip rate. This represents the change in lightning-causing factors. For the set of line characteristic parameters, This is a trip rate calculation function established based on the electrical geometric model (EGM) or the procedure method.

[0052] Among them, the change in the lightning disaster-causing factor Including changes in ground flash density Changes in the cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitude The set of line characteristic parameters This includes one or more of the following: line insulation level (lightning impulse withstand voltage of insulator strings), tower grounding resistance, lightning protection angle, terrain coefficient, and line voltage level. For example... Figure 2 As shown, the change in lightning-causing factors is obtained from lightning parameters, and the tripping rate is obtained by combining the line characteristic parameter set with the tripping rate calculation function established based on the electrical geometric model (EGM) or the procedure method.

[0053] In a further optimized scheme, step S2 obtains the reduction rate of grid lightning fault risk based on the change in line lightning trip rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention and the predicted lightning trip rate before artificial intervention. This reflects the actual protective benefits of manual lightning suppression operations for the safe operation of power grid equipment. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0054] in, The predicted lightning trip rate (number of times / 100km·a) of the target line without artificial lightning suppression intervention is obtained through one of the following two methods: selecting observation data of a control cloud that is highly similar to the target cloud in terms of physical characteristics (echo intensity, cloud top height, supercooled water content, charge structure, etc.) and calculating it based on the equivalent trip rate of the line section affected by the control cloud; or simulating the lightning activity pattern under the uninterrupted scenario using the WRF model and then inputting it into the risk transmission model for calculation. It represents Compared with the actual lightning tripping rate of the target line after intervention. The difference is indirectly obtained by inputting the actual observed lightning parameters (ground flash density, lightning current amplitude distribution) into the correlation model after the intervention operation.

[0055] Step S3 constructs a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index E, which comprehensively considers the effects of meteorological intervention, the reduction rate of equipment failure risk, and economic benefits. For the first time, it organically integrates meteorological, safety, and economic dimensions into a standardized score that can be compared horizontally. The calculation formula is:

[0056] in, This is a meteorological intervention effectiveness index that comprehensively reflects meteorological indicators such as the reduction rate of lightning frequency, the attenuation rate of lightning density, the change rate of lightning current amplitude distribution, and the attenuation rate of radar echo parameters. It is calculated using a normalized weighting method. For example, the weight allocation can be 0.35 for lightning density, 0.30 for lightning frequency, 0.20 for the change rate of lightning current amplitude, and 0.15 for the attenuation rate of radar echo parameters. To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes; For economic efficiency index; These are the weighting coefficients. Dynamically adjust according to different power grid lightning protection scenarios (such as...) Figure 3 As shown): When focusing on evaluating the safety benefits of the line, increase The value increases when the focus is on verifying the physical effects of meteorological interventions. Value, when focusing on economic analysis, is to increase value.

[0057] In a further preferred embodiment, the economic benefit index The calculation formula is:

[0058] in, Economic losses (including equipment repair costs, power loss, and social impact losses) avoided due to manual lightning suppression intervention. This represents the total cost of manual lightning suppression intervention. The formula normalizes the economic benefits to the interval (0,1), and... and It maintains consistency in dimensions and naturally reflects the input-output relationship: Much larger hour Approaching 1, much smaller hour Approaching 0.

[0059] In step S4, the multidimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index calculated based on the above steps is... and lightning strike failure risk reduction rate A dual threshold judgment is performed to classify the effectiveness of manual intervention into four levels, as shown in Table 1 below in this embodiment: Table 1

[0060] like Figure 4As shown, the design logic of the dual threshold criterion is as follows: =10% is the minimum threshold for the first-level criterion - when the reduction rate of lightning strike failure risk is less than 10%, it is deemed invalid regardless of how high the comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index is, ensuring the "bottom line requirement" of risk reduction; The three-level division (0.75 / 0.50 / 0.30) further differentiates the quality of intervention based on the level of comprehensive effectiveness, on the basis of meeting the minimum requirements.

[0061] Output evaluation results and improvement suggestions, including: meteorological intervention effect evaluation report, power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate analysis, comprehensive benefit evaluation conclusion, and suggestions for optimizing subsequent intervention operations.

[0062] The above methods were used to comprehensively evaluate the artificial lightning suppression effect of a ±800kV UHVDC transmission line.

[0063] Scenario setting: During the summer thunderstorm season, a ±800kV ultra-high voltage direct current transmission line (approximately 1200km long, passing through areas with frequent thunderstorms) is to reduce the risk of lightning tripping by artificial lightning suppression operations using drones to spread conductive particles and ice nuclei.

[0064] Step 1: Deploy monitoring and data collection Monitoring equipment such as Lightning Location System (LLS), atmospheric electric field meter arrays, and X-band dual-polarization radar were deployed along the transmission line, along with fault recording devices and lightning overvoltage monitoring devices. Data collection began continuously 72 hours before the intervention operation and monitoring continued until 48 hours after the operation.

[0065] Step 2: Construct the association model Line characteristic parameter set Includes: 31 insulators per string, rated lightning impulse withstand voltage of 1950kV; typical value of tower grounding resistance of 15Ω; lightning protection angle of 8°; terrain coefficient of 0.85; average lightning trip rate of 1.85 times / (100km·a) over the past three years.

[0066] The ground flash density was established using the electrical geometric model (EGM) method. Line lightning trip rate The relationship model between them.

[0067] Step 3: Calculate the lightning strike failure risk reduction rate η (1) Calculation Select a control cloud cluster with physical characteristics highly similar to the target cloud cluster, and its ground flash density. =8.6 times / (km²·a), average lightning current amplitude 32kA. Substituting into the correlation model, we get... =1.82 times / (100km·a).

[0068] (2) Calculation After intervention =5.2 times / (km²·a), the average lightning current amplitude decreased to 25kA. Substituting into the correlation model, the change in the line lightning tripping rate is 1.1 times / (100km·a). Therefore, the actual lightning tripping rate of the target line after intervention is... =0.72 times / (100km·a).

[0069] (3) = 1.1 / 1.82 × 100% ≈60.4%.

[0070] Step 4: Calculate the multidimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index E (1) The ground flash density decreased by 39.5%, echo top height decreased by 18.6%, and VIL decreased by 21.6%, according to normalized weighted calculations. ≈0.68.

[0071] (2) The estimated total loss from a single lightning strike trip on this circuit is approximately 2 million yuan, with an expected 2.2 trips per year. Intervention would prevent losses of approximately 2.66 million yuan. The total operating cost is approximately 550,000 yuan. = 266 / (266+55) ≈ 0.83.

[0072] (3) Set weights =0.15、 =0.55、 =0.30 (Because this line is an ultra-high voltage direct current transmission channel, the primary goal is to ensure lightning protection and safety).

[0073] = 0.15×0.68 + 0.55×0.604 + 0.30×0.83 = 0.102 + 0.332 + 0.249 = 0.683.

[0074] Step 5: Effect Grading and Decision Output =60.4% ≥ 10%, proceed to the second level of judgment; 0.50 ≤ =0.683<0.75 → Classified as Level II (Valid).

[0075] Interpretation: The success rate has exceeded 60%, indicating a significant reduction in the risk of lightning strikes; however, the overall score... The failure to reach the "significantly effective" threshold of 0.75 was primarily due to... =0.68 is relatively low (there is still room for improvement in the effectiveness of meteorological intervention). It is recommended to adjust the timing of catalyst seeding, seeding earlier during the electrification stage of thunderstorm clouds to improve the effectiveness of meteorological intervention.

[0076] In the comprehensive evaluation of the artificial lightning suppression effect on another 220kV main transmission line, the specific implementation process is similar to that of the ±800kV UHVDC transmission line mentioned above, with the main difference being: the line =950kV, Typical value 20Ω =12°; the weighting is set with an emphasis on economic analysis. =0.20、 =0.35、 =0.45; the operation method is ground-based rocket launch, with a single cost of approximately 120,000 yuan; expected Approximately 35%, Approximately 0.62, overall rating Level II.

[0077] In the complete system process, such as Figure 5 As shown, the solution in this invention can be implemented using the following system architecture, which includes a data acquisition module, a risk transmission model construction module, a risk reduction rate calculation module, a comprehensive performance evaluation module, a hierarchical decision output module, and finally output to a display terminal, wherein: The data acquisition module is used to acquire data from lightning location systems, atmospheric electric field meters, dual-polarization radars, fault recording devices, or overvoltage monitoring devices. The risk transmission model building module is used to construct a correlation model between lightning-causing factors and equipment failure risks; The risk reduction rate calculation module is used to calculate the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk after manual lightning suppression intervention. The comprehensive performance evaluation module is used to construct a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate, meteorological intervention effect index, and economic benefit index; The hierarchical decision output module is used to conduct a hierarchical evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index. The input terminals of the data acquisition module are communicatively connected to the lightning location system, atmospheric electric field instrument array, X-band dual-polarization radar, line fault recording device, and lightning overvoltage monitoring device, respectively. The output terminal of the data acquisition module is connected to the input terminal of the risk transmission model construction module; the output terminal of the risk transmission model construction module is connected to the input terminal of the risk reduction rate calculation module; the output terminal of the risk reduction rate calculation module is connected to the input terminal of the comprehensive effectiveness evaluation module; the output terminal of the comprehensive effectiveness evaluation module is connected to the input terminal of the hierarchical decision output module; and the output terminal of the hierarchical decision output module is connected to a display terminal or remote management platform. The data acquisition module communicates with each monitoring device and has a built-in GPS / BeiDou dual-mode clock synchronization unit. The risk transmission model construction module has a built-in EGM calculation engine and a line characteristic parameter database. The comprehensive effectiveness evaluation module receives externally set parameters through a weight adjustment interface. The hierarchical decision output module automatically determines and generates an evaluation report based on dual threshold criteria, which is then output to a display terminal or remote management platform.

[0078] Example 2: Based on the same inventive concept, this invention also provides a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention, such as... Figure 6 As shown, it includes: The first acquisition module is used to obtain the change in line lightning tripping rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention by using a pre-built correlation model between lightning disaster factors and equipment failure risk. The second acquisition module is used to obtain the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk after artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the ratio of the change in line lightning trip rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention to the predicted lightning trip rate when no artificial intervention was implemented. The module is used to construct a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate, meteorological intervention effect index, and economic benefit index. The evaluation module is used to conduct a graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index. The correlation model is constructed based on the quantitative correlation between the changes in lightning-causing factors and the changes in line lightning tripping rate; the meteorological intervention effect index is used to characterize the changes in meteorological indicators before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention; and the economic benefit index is used to characterize the relationship between the reduction in economic losses caused by avoiding line lightning tripping and shortening power outage time and the input cost.

[0079] In a further preferred embodiment, the association model in the first acquisition module is characterized by a tripping rate calculation function established based on an electrical geometric model or a procedure method.

[0080] In a further preferred embodiment, the expression for the associated model in the first acquisition module is:

[0081] in, This represents the change in the line lightning trip rate. This represents the change in lightning-causing factors. For the set of line characteristic parameters, This is the function for calculating the trip rate.

[0082] In a further preferred embodiment, the change in lightning-causing factors in the first acquisition module includes the change in ground flash density. Changes in the cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitude .

[0083] In a further preferred embodiment, the first acquisition module contains a set of line feature parameters. Includes one or more of the following: Line insulation level, tower grounding resistance, lightning protection angle, terrain coefficient, and line voltage level.

[0084] In a further preferred embodiment, the multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index in the construction module The calculation formula is:

[0085] in, As an index of the effectiveness of meteorological intervention, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, For economic efficiency index, These are the weighting coefficients. .

[0086] In a further preferred embodiment, the meteorological intervention effect index in the construction module is a normalized weighted sum of changes in multidimensional meteorological indicators.

[0087] In a further preferred embodiment, the multidimensional meteorological indicators in the construction module include one or more of the following: The rate of reduction in lightning frequency, the rate of attenuation of lightning density, the rate of change in lightning current amplitude distribution, and the rate of attenuation of radar echo parameters.

[0088] In a further preferred embodiment, the economic benefit index in the construction module The calculation formula is:

[0089] in, To mitigate the economic losses avoided by manual lightning suppression intervention, This represents the total cost of manual lightning suppression intervention operations.

[0090] In a further preferred embodiment, the predicted lightning trip rate in the second acquisition module is obtained in the following manner: A non-operational control cloud cluster with similar physical characteristics to the target thunderstorm cloud cluster was selected, and the equivalent lightning trip rate of the affected area of ​​the control cloud cluster was used to estimate the trip rate. or, The lightning activity without intervention is simulated using a numerical weather prediction model, and the simulated lightning parameters are input into the correlation model for calculation.

[0091] In a further preferred embodiment, the evaluation module performs a graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index, including: when and When, it is judged as Level I, significantly effective; when %and When, it is judged as Level II, valid; when and When, it is judged as Level III, general; when At that time, it was judged to be Level IV, and therefore invalid; in, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, It is a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index.

[0092] Example 3 like Figure 7 As shown, the present invention also provides an electronic device, which may be a computer device, a microcontroller device, a smart mobile device, etc. The electronic device in this embodiment may include a processor, a memory, a transceiver component, etc. The memory, processor, and transceiver component are connected via a bus; the memory can be used to store executable programs, and an exemplary executable program may include instructions; the processor is used to execute the instructions stored in the memory. The memory can also be used to store data, which can be accessed and / or modified when instructions are executed.

[0093] The processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or it may be other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. It is the computing core and control core of the terminal, and it is suitable for implementing one or more instructions. Specifically, it is suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions in the storage medium to realize the corresponding method flow or corresponding function, so as to realize the steps of the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method of artificial lightning suppression intervention in the above embodiments.

[0094] Example 4 Based on the same inventive concept, this invention also provides a readable storage medium, specifically an electronic device readable storage medium (Memory). This readable storage medium is a memory device within an electronic device used to store programs and data. It is understood that the storage medium here can include both built-in storage media within the electronic device and extended storage media supported by the electronic device. The storage medium provides storage space, which stores the terminal's operating system. Furthermore, this storage space also stores one or more instructions suitable for loading and execution by a processor. These instructions can be one or more executable programs (including program code). It should be noted that the storage medium here can be high-speed RAM or non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk storage device. Loading and executing one or more instructions stored in the storage medium by the processor can realize the steps of the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention in the above embodiments.

[0095] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0096] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0097] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0098] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0099] The above are merely embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc., made within the spirit and principles of the present invention are included within the scope of the claims of the present invention pending approval.

Claims

1. A multi-dimensional comprehensive efficacy evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention, characterized in that, include: The change in line lightning tripping rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention was obtained by using a pre-constructed correlation model between lightning disaster factors and equipment failure risk. The reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk after artificial lightning suppression intervention is obtained by comparing the change in line lightning trip rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention with the predicted lightning trip rate before artificial intervention. A multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index is constructed based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate, meteorological intervention effect index, and economic benefit index. The effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention is graded and evaluated based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate and multi-dimensional comprehensive efficiency evaluation index. The correlation model is constructed based on the quantitative correlation between the changes in lightning-causing factors and the changes in line lightning tripping rate; the meteorological intervention effect index is used to characterize the changes in meteorological indicators before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention; and the economic benefit index is used to characterize the relationship between the reduction in economic losses caused by avoiding line lightning tripping and shortening power outage time and the input cost.

2. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 1, characterized in that, The correlation model is characterized by a tripping rate calculation function established based on an electrical geometric model or procedure method.

3. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 2, characterized in that, The expression for the association model is: in, This represents the change in the line lightning trip rate. This represents the change in lightning-causing factors. For the set of line characteristic parameters, This is the function for calculating the trip rate.

4. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 3, characterized in that, The changes in lightning-causing factors include changes in ground flash density. Changes in the cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitude .

5. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 3, characterized in that, The line characteristic parameter set Includes one or more of the following: Line insulation level, tower grounding resistance, lightning protection angle, terrain coefficient, and line voltage level.

6. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 1, characterized in that, The multidimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index The calculation formula is: in, As an index of the effectiveness of meteorological intervention, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, For economic efficiency index, These are the weighting coefficients. .

7. The multidimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 1 or 6, characterized in that, The meteorological intervention effect index is a normalized weighted sum of changes in multidimensional meteorological indicators.

8. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 7, characterized in that, The multidimensional meteorological indicators include one or more of the following: The rate of reduction in lightning frequency, the rate of attenuation of lightning density, the rate of change in lightning current amplitude distribution, and the rate of attenuation of radar echo parameters.

9. The multidimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 1 or 6, characterized in that, The economic benefit index The calculation formula is: in, To mitigate the economic losses avoided by manual lightning suppression intervention, This represents the total cost of manual lightning suppression intervention operations.

10. The multidimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 1, characterized in that, The predicted lightning trip rate is obtained through the following methods: A non-operational control cloud cluster with similar physical characteristics to the target thunderstorm cloud cluster was selected, and the equivalent lightning trip rate of the affected area of ​​the control cloud cluster was used to estimate the trip rate. or, The lightning activity without intervention is simulated using a numerical weather prediction model, and the simulated lightning parameters are input into the correlation model for calculation.

11. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 1, characterized in that, The graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index includes: when and When, it is judged as Level I, significantly effective; when %and When, it is judged as Level II, valid; when and When, it is judged as Level III, general; when At that time, it was judged to be Level IV, and therefore invalid; in, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, It is a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index.

12. A multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention, characterized in that, include: The first acquisition module is used to obtain the change in line lightning tripping rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention by using a pre-built correlation model between lightning disaster factors and equipment failure risk. The second acquisition module is used to obtain the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk after artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the ratio of the change in line lightning trip rate before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention to the predicted lightning trip rate when no artificial intervention was implemented. The module is used to construct a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate, meteorological intervention effect index, and economic benefit index. The evaluation module is used to conduct a graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the reduction rate of power grid lightning fault risk and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index. The correlation model is constructed based on the quantitative correlation between the changes in lightning-causing factors and the changes in line lightning tripping rate; the meteorological intervention effect index is used to characterize the changes in meteorological indicators before and after artificial lightning suppression intervention; and the economic benefit index is used to characterize the relationship between the reduction in economic losses caused by avoiding line lightning tripping and shortening power outage time and the input cost.

13. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 12, characterized in that, The association model in the first acquisition module is characterized by a tripping rate calculation function established based on an electrical geometric model or procedure method.

14. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 13, characterized in that, The expression for the associated model in the first acquisition module is: in, This represents the change in the line lightning trip rate. This represents the change in lightning-causing factors. For the set of line characteristic parameters, This is the function for calculating the trip rate.

15. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 14, characterized in that, The changes in lightning-causing factors in the first acquisition module include changes in ground flash density. Changes in the cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitude .

16. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 14, characterized in that, The first acquisition module contains the set of line feature parameters. Includes one or more of the following: Line insulation level, tower grounding resistance, lightning protection angle, terrain coefficient, and line voltage level.

17. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 12, characterized in that, The multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index in the construction module The calculation formula is: in, As an index of the effectiveness of meteorological intervention, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, For economic efficiency index, These are the weighting coefficients. .

18. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 12 or 17, characterized in that, In the aforementioned construction module, the meteorological intervention effect index is a normalized weighted sum of changes in multidimensional meteorological indicators.

19. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 18, characterized in that, The multidimensional meteorological indicators in the construction module include one or more of the following: The rate of reduction in lightning frequency, the rate of attenuation of lightning density, the rate of change in lightning current amplitude distribution, and the rate of attenuation of radar echo parameters.

20. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 12 or 17, characterized in that, The economic benefit index in the construction module The calculation formula is: in, To mitigate the economic losses avoided by manual lightning suppression intervention, This represents the total cost of manual lightning suppression intervention operations.

21. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 12, characterized in that, The predicted lightning trip rate in the second acquisition module is obtained in the following way: A non-operational control cloud cluster with similar physical characteristics to the target thunderstorm cloud cluster was selected, and the equivalent lightning trip rate of the affected area of ​​the control cloud cluster was used to estimate the trip rate. or, The lightning activity without intervention is simulated using a numerical weather prediction model, and the simulated lightning parameters are input into the correlation model for calculation.

22. The multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation system for artificial lightning suppression intervention according to claim 12, characterized in that, The evaluation module performs a graded evaluation of the effectiveness of artificial lightning suppression intervention based on the power grid lightning fault risk reduction rate and the multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation index, including: when and When, it is judged as Level I, significantly effective; when %and When, it is judged as Level II, valid; when and When, it is judged as Level III, general; when At that time, it was judged to be Level IV, and therefore invalid; in, To reduce the risk of power grid lightning strikes, It is a multi-dimensional comprehensive performance evaluation index.

23. A computer device, characterized in that, include: At least one processor and memory; The memory and processor are connected via a bus; The memory is used to store one or more programs; When the one or more programs are executed by the at least one processor, a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for the artificial lightning suppression intervention effect as described in any one of claims 1 to 11 is implemented.

24. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, It contains an execution program, which, when executed, implements a multi-dimensional comprehensive effectiveness evaluation method for the artificial lightning suppression intervention effect as described in any one of claims 1 to 11.

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