A natural reserve climate change prediction system and method based on multi-source data

Abstract

This invention discloses a system and method for predicting climate change in nature reserves based on multi-source data in the field of ecological and environmental research technology. The system includes: a historical data acquisition module; a current data acquisition module; a processing module; and a prediction module. The current data acquisition module includes a field data acquisition module and a simulated data acquisition module. The simulated data acquisition module is used to simulate nature reserves using simulation equipment and obtain their ecological and environmental parameters. By setting up the simulated data acquisition module, this application uses environmental simulation equipment to accurately reproduce the key ecological and environmental processes of nature reserves under controlled conditions, and actively acquires core ecological parameters including water conservation response, soil erosion dynamics, and vegetation-soil carbon exchange. It can not only serve as an independent verification source to test the accuracy and consistency of multi-source data such as remote sensing inversion, ground observation, and literature inference.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of ecological and environmental research, specifically to a system and method for predicting climate change in nature reserves based on multi-source data. Background Technology

[0002] As global climate change intensifies, nature reserves, as core areas for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, face severe challenges to the stability of their ecological functions. To scientifically assess the ecological response of nature reserves under future climate scenarios, researchers generally use process-based ecosystem service models (such as the InVEST model) coupled with future scenario data such as shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) to predict key services such as water conservation, soil retention, and carbon sequestration. However, the historical or current data relied upon for existing model calibration are mainly derived from remote sensing inversion products (such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation index) and reanalysis meteorological datasets, ground observation data such as field plot surveys, hydrological station records, or soil surveys, and indirect calculations using empirical formulas or literature parameters. Although the above data sources are extensive, they generally suffer from problems such as mismatch in spatiotemporal resolution, incomplete observation coverage, and insufficient localization of parameters. The existing technical system generally lacks simulation verification and error cleanup mechanisms for the calibration data itself, which will affect the accuracy of model calibration and impact subsequent climate change predictions for nature reserves. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The purpose of this invention is to provide a system and method for predicting climate change in nature reserves based on multi-source data. This system solves the problem that the existing technology system generally lacks a simulation verification and error cleanup mechanism for the calibration data itself, which affects the accuracy of model calibration.

[0004] This invention achieves the above objectives through the following technical solution: a climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data, comprising: The historical data acquisition module is used to obtain historical data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration in nature reserves; The current data acquisition module is used to obtain current data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration in nature reserves; The processing module is used to calibrate the prediction model using data information obtained from the historical data acquisition module and the current data acquisition module; The prediction module is used to predict climate change in nature reserves using prediction models; The current data acquisition module includes a field data acquisition module and a simulated data acquisition module. The simulated data acquisition module is used to simulate nature reserves using simulation equipment and obtain their ecological environment parameters to verify and supplement the historical and current data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration of nature reserves.

[0005] Preferably, the prediction model is the InVEST model.

[0006] Preferably, the simulation device includes a simulation box, an environmental control device disposed inside the simulation box, and a tray, wherein the tray is used to hold environmental simulation materials.

[0007] Preferably, the simulation chamber has an observation port on its side wall, a transparent plate is provided inside the observation port, and a cleaning component for cleaning the transparent plate and a driving component for moving the cleaning component are slidably provided inside the simulation chamber.

[0008] Preferably, the cleaning assembly includes a mounting base, a cleaning component, a slot on the mounting base, a plug on the cleaning component for insertion into the slot, and a magnetic component disposed in the slot and on the plug, wherein the two magnetic components attract each other. The simulation chamber has an opening on its outer wall for the cleaning component to pass through, and a baffle plate for blocking the opening and an elastic component connected to the baffle plate are slidably disposed inside the simulation chamber.

[0009] Preferably, the simulation box is equipped with a lifting component, and the moving end of the lifting component is hinged with a bracket and a driving component for changing the tilt angle of the bracket, and the tray is disposed on the bracket.

[0010] Preferably, the simulation box includes a box body and a baffle that is detachably connected to the box body.

[0011] Preferably, the bottom of the tray has several openings, and the bottom of the tray is slidably provided with several shields for blocking the openings. Several shields are connected to a moving member, which extends to the outside of the simulation box. The connection between the simulation box and the moving member is provided with a guide groove.

[0012] Preferably, a method for predicting climate change in nature reserves based on multi-source data, utilizing the aforementioned system for predicting climate change in nature reserves based on multi-source data, includes the following steps: S1: The historical data acquisition module acquires historical data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration of nature reserves. The current data acquisition module's field data acquisition module acquires current data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration of nature reserves. At the same time, the current data acquisition module's simulation data acquisition module uses simulation equipment to simulate nature reserves and acquire their ecological environment parameters. S2: The processing module processes the data information acquired by the historical data acquisition module and the current data acquisition module, and inputs it into the prediction model for calibration; S3: Input the scenario data to be detected into the calibrated prediction model to predict the climate change of nature reserves under that scenario.

[0013] The beneficial effects of this invention are as follows: By setting up a simulation data acquisition module, the key ecological and environmental processes of nature reserves can be reproduced with high precision under controlled conditions using environmental simulation equipment. It actively acquires core ecological parameters, including water conservation response, soil erosion dynamics, and vegetation-soil carbon exchange. This not only serves as an independent verification source to test the accuracy and consistency of multi-source data collected from remote sensing inversion, ground observation, and literature inference, but also effectively identifies and corrects outliers, logical contradictions, or spatiotemporal gaps. When real observation data is limited by geographical accessibility, monitoring cycles, or the sparsity of extreme events, resulting in gaps or uncertainties, the simulation data can provide supplementary information driven by physical mechanisms. This significantly improves the parameter reliability and process rationality of the ecosystem service model during the calibration phase, reduces model bias caused by input data errors, and greatly enhances the accuracy, robustness, and decision support capability of the system in predicting the evolution trend of ecosystem services in nature reserves under future climate change scenarios. Attached Figure Description

[0014] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the climate change prediction system for nature reserves of the present invention; Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the simulation device of the present invention; Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the connection structure between the simulation box and the pallet of the present invention; Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the connection structure between the tray and the baffle of the present invention; Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the baffle structure of the present invention; Figure 6 This is a cross-sectional view of the cleaning component of the present invention.

[0015] In the diagram: 1. Simulation box; 101. Box body; 102. Baffle; 2. Environmental control equipment; 3. Transparent plate; 4. Opening; 5. Support plate; 6. Lifting component; 7. Driving component; 8. Bracket; 9. Baffle plate; 10. Moving component; 11. Driving assembly; 12. Cleaning assembly; 121. Mounting base; 122. Cleaning component; 123. Insert block; 124. Slot; 125. Magnetic component; 13. Blocking plate; 14. Guide groove. Detailed Implementation

[0016] The present application will now be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that the following specific embodiments are only used to further illustrate the present application and should not be construed as limiting the scope of protection of the present application. Those skilled in the art can make some non-essential improvements and adjustments to the present application based on the above application content.

[0017] Example 1

[0018] Please see Figure 1 A climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data includes: a historical data acquisition module, a current data acquisition module, a processing module, and a prediction module. The historical data acquisition module is used to acquire historical data on water conservation, soil retention, and carbon sequestration of nature reserves. The current data acquisition module includes a field data acquisition module and a simulated data acquisition module. The field data acquisition module is used to acquire current data on water conservation, soil retention, and carbon sequestration of nature reserves on-site, while the simulated data acquisition module is used to simulate nature reserves using simulation equipment and acquire their ecological and environmental parameters. The processing module refers to a remote platform (such as a computer) used to calibrate the prediction model (InVEST model) using the data information acquired by the historical data acquisition module and the current data acquisition module. The prediction module is used to predict climate change in nature reserves using the prediction model.

[0019] It should be noted that water conservation includes land use / cover (LULC), precipitation, evapotranspiration, root depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, topography, etc.; soil conservation includes LULC, rainfall erosivity (R factor), soil erodibility (K factor), slope, vegetation cover (C factor), etc.; carbon sequestration includes LULC and carbon pool parameters for each land type (aboveground, belowground, soil, dead organic matter).

[0020] A method for predicting climate change in nature reserves based on multi-source data is described below: First: Delineate the boundaries of the study area (i.e., identify nature reserves). The historical data acquisition module obtains historical data on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration of the nature reserves. The field data acquisition module of the current data acquisition module obtains current data on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration of the nature reserves. At the same time, the simulation data acquisition module of the current data acquisition module uses simulation equipment to simulate the nature reserves and obtain their ecological environment parameters. Second: The processing module processes and analyzes the data information acquired by the historical data acquisition module and the current data acquisition module. It uses the ecological environment parameters collected by the simulated data acquisition module to verify the historical data information of the historical data acquisition module and the current data information of the field data acquisition module, and supplements both. After completion, the information data is input into the prediction model for calibration. Third: Input the scenario data to be detected (two scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, SSP2-4.5: moderate socioeconomic development path, moderate greenhouse gas emissions, global warming of about 2.7°C (by 2100), SSP5-8.5: high fossil fuel dependence path, strong economic growth but high emissions, warming of more than 4.4°C) into the calibrated prediction model, obtain the parameters of water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration under the scenario, and calculate the climate change of nature reserves under the scenario.

[0021] In this embodiment, as a further optimization, please refer to... Figure 2 and Figure 3 The simulation equipment includes a simulation box 1, an environmental control device 2 installed inside the simulation box 1, and a tray 5. The tray 5 is used to hold environmental simulation materials. The environmental control device 2 includes simulation lights, a temperature and humidity controller, and a spray assembly.

[0022] In this embodiment, as a further optimization, please refer to... Figure 2 and Figure 5 An observation port is provided on the front side wall of the simulation chamber 1. A transparent plate 3 (such as a glass plate) is provided inside the observation port. A cleaning component 12 is slidably provided on the inner side wall of the simulation chamber 1. A drive component 11 (such as an electric telescopic rod) is provided inside the simulation chamber 1. The moving end of the drive component 11 is connected to the cleaning component 12. The staff can observe the condition inside the simulation chamber 1 from the outside through the transparent plate 3. The drive component 11 drives the cleaning component 12 to move and clean the inner side wall of the transparent plate 3, ensuring that the inner side of the transparent plate 3 is not blocked, and ensuring that the condition inside the simulation chamber 1 can be observed normally through the transparent plate 3 during the simulation.

[0023] In this embodiment, as a further optimization, please refer to... Figure 2 , Figure 5 and Figure 6The cleaning assembly 12 includes a mounting base 121, a cleaning component 122 (which includes a base plate and a sponge or wiping cloth on the base plate), a slot 124 on the mounting base 121, a plug 123 on the cleaning component 122 for insertion into the slot 124, and a magnetic component 125 on the plug 123 and in the slot 124. The magnetic poles of the two magnetic components 125 are opposite on the side that are close to each other, and they attract each other, fixing the plug 123 in the slot 124, thereby fixing the cleaning component 122 on the mounting base 121. An opening 4 is provided on the outer wall of the simulation box 1, facing the cleaning component 122. Through the opening 4, the cleaning component 122 can be removed from the mounting base 121 for cleaning or replacement. Cleaning component 122; A baffle plate 13 is slidably provided on the inner side wall of the simulation box 1. The moving direction of the baffle plate 13 is the same as the moving direction of the cleaning component 12. An elastic element (spring) is provided between the baffle plate 13 and the simulation box 1. The baffle plate 13 is in contact with the side wall of the cleaning component 12. The elastic element is used to provide support for the baffle plate 13. When the driving component 11 drives the cleaning component 12 to move, the baffle plate 13 loses the obstruction of the cleaning component 12 and moves under the action of the elastic element, blocking and sealing the opening 4 to ensure that the internal environment of the simulation box 1 is not affected by the outside. When the driving component 11 drives the cleaning component 12 to reset, the cleaning component 12 moves back to the area facing the opening 4, while pushing the baffle plate 13 to slide back to reset and compressing the elastic element.

[0024] It should be noted that the cross-sectional area of ​​the mounting base 121 is larger than that of the cleaning component 122, so that when the cleaning component 122 is facing the opening 4, there will be no gap between the mounting base 121 and the opening 4; and the cross-sectional area of ​​the blocking plate 13 is larger than that of the opening 4, ensuring that the blocking plate 13 can completely block the opening 4.

[0025] Example 2

[0026] As a further optimization of Example 1, please refer to Figure 3 and Figure 4 The bottom of the inner cavity of the simulation box 1 is provided with a lifting component 6 (such as an electric telescopic rod). The moving end of the lifting component 6 is hinged to a bracket 8 via a pivot. The moving end of the lifting component 6 is provided with a support, and the support is provided with a driving component 7 (such as an electric telescopic rod). The moving end of the driving component 7 is in contact with the bottom wall of the bracket 8. The extension and retraction of the driving component 7 is used to adjust the tilt angle of the bracket 8, thereby changing the tilt angle of the support plate 5 on the bracket 8 (the top wall of the support plate 5 is surrounded by a barrier), which facilitates the state of the simulated object passing through the top wall of the support plate 5. The extension and retraction of the lifting component 6 is used to adjust the height of the support plate 5.

[0027] It should be noted that there are two lifting components 6, which are located on the left and right sides of the bottom of the pallet 5, respectively.

[0028] In this embodiment, as a further optimization, please refer to... Figure 2 The simulation box 1 includes a box body 101 and a baffle 102. An outlet is provided on the front side wall of the box body 101. The baffle 102 is detachably installed in the outlet. The baffle 102 and the box body 101 can be connected by bolts to seal the front side of the box body 101. The baffle 102 is removed from the front side of the box body 101 to open the outlet, so that the tray 5 can be taken out from the inside of the box body 101 for replacement. The tray 5 and the bracket 8 are snap-fitted together.

[0029] In this embodiment, as a further optimization, please refer to... Figure 2 The bottom of the tray 5 has several openings, and several baffles 9 are slidably provided on the bottom of the tray 5. Several baffles 9 are connected to a moving part 10. The moving part 10 extends to the outside of the simulation box 1. A guide groove 14 is provided at the connection between the simulation box 1 and the moving part 10. The guide groove 14 allows the moving part 10 to move left and right. By pushing the moving part 10, the baffles 9 are moved to block the openings or open the openings. The simulation environment above the tray 5 can drain water.

[0030] The embodiments described above are merely examples of several implementations of the present invention, and while the descriptions are relatively specific and detailed, they should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various modifications and improvements without departing from the concept of the present invention, and these modifications and improvements all fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data, characterized in that, include: The historical data acquisition module is used to obtain historical data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration in nature reserves; The current data acquisition module is used to obtain current data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration in nature reserves; The processing module is used to calibrate the prediction model using data information obtained from the historical data acquisition module and the current data acquisition module; The prediction module is used to predict climate change in nature reserves using prediction models; The current data acquisition module includes a field data acquisition module and a simulated data acquisition module. The simulated data acquisition module is used to simulate nature reserves using simulation equipment and obtain their ecological environment parameters to verify and supplement the historical and current data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration of nature reserves.

2. The nature reserve climate change prediction system based on multi-source data according to claim 1, characterized in that, The prediction model is the InVEST model.

3. The nature reserve climate change prediction system based on multi-source data according to claim 1, characterized in that, The simulation equipment includes a simulation box (1), an environmental control device (2) installed inside the simulation box (1), and a tray (5), the tray (5) being used to hold environmental simulation materials.

4. A climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data according to claim 3, characterized in that, The simulation box (1) has an observation port on its side wall, and a transparent plate (3) is provided inside the observation port. A cleaning component (12) for cleaning the transparent plate (3) and a driving component (11) for driving the cleaning component (12) to move are slidably provided inside the simulation box (1).

5. A climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data according to claim 4, characterized in that, The cleaning assembly (12) includes a mounting base (121), a cleaning component (122), a slot (124) provided on the mounting base (121), a plug (123) provided on the cleaning component (122) and for insertion into the slot (124), and a magnetic component (125) provided in the slot (124) and on the plug (123), wherein the two magnetic components (125) are attracted to each other; The simulation box (1) has an opening (4) on its outer side wall for the cleaning component (122) to pass through. Inside the simulation box (1), there is a slidable baffle (13) for blocking the opening (4) and an elastic component connected to the baffle (13).

6. A climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data according to claim 3, characterized in that, The simulation box (1) is equipped with a lifting component (6), and a bracket (8) and a driving component (7) for changing the tilt angle of the bracket (8) are hinged on the moving end of the lifting component (6). The tray (5) is provided on the bracket (8).

7. A climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data according to claim 3, characterized in that, The simulation box (1) includes a box body (101) and a baffle (102) that is detachably connected to the box body (101).

8. A climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data according to claim 3, characterized in that, The bottom of the tray (5) is provided with several openings, and several shielding plates (9) for blocking the openings are slidably provided on the bottom of the tray (5). Several shielding plates (9) are connected together to a moving part (10). The moving part (10) extends to the outside of the simulation box (1). The connection between the simulation box (1) and the moving part (10) is provided with a guide groove (14).

9. A method for predicting climate change in nature reserves based on multi-source data, utilizing a climate change prediction system for nature reserves based on multi-source data as described in any one of claims 1-8, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: S1: The historical data acquisition module acquires historical data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration of nature reserves. The current data acquisition module's field data acquisition module acquires current data information on water conservation, soil retention and carbon sequestration of nature reserves. At the same time, the current data acquisition module's simulation data acquisition module uses simulation equipment to simulate nature reserves and acquire their ecological environment parameters. S2: The processing module processes the data information acquired by the historical data acquisition module and the current data acquisition module, and inputs it into the prediction model for calibration; S3: Input the scenario data to be detected into the calibrated prediction model to predict the climate change of nature reserves under that scenario.

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