A comprehensive evaluation method for technical risks of equipment development projects

Abstract

The application relates to a kind of equipment development project technical risk comprehensive evaluation method, and the evaluation method comprises: selecting project key technology as project technical risk candidate, and constructing key technology analysis matrix;According to each factor influencing project technology research and its characteristics, each element of key technology analysis matrix is calculated respectively, and technical risk analysis vector is obtained;Based on the key technology risk of weighted dynamic penalty mechanism, comprehensive evaluation is carried out.The application proposes a weighted dynamic penalty mechanism, and the various factors influencing project technology breakthrough and technical risk occurrence index are comprehensively calculated, so that the comprehensive evaluation result is more sensitive to the low value of the index with higher weight, reflects the management practice that the project technical risk occurrence index is affected by the weakest factor, and the business logic is clear, and each parameter is easy to adjust.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of risk assessment, and in particular to a comprehensive method for assessing the technical risks of equipment development projects. Background Technology

[0002] Equipment development projects are technically complex, often requiring the use of new technologies, materials, and processes that have not yet been fully validated. Furthermore, these projects are typically characterized by long development cycles, stringent testing requirements, and significant challenges in coordination and management, resulting in substantial technical risks. These risks can also be major contributors to delays, exceeding performance limits, and budget overruns. Therefore, conducting thorough technical risk assessments before project initiation and during the development process, accurately identifying various technical risks, and analyzing their probability of occurrence and potential impact can provide crucial support for project initiation and development, directly influencing the project's success.

[0003] Currently, the main methods for assessing the technological risks of research and development projects include: First, qualitative analysis based on risk matrices and risk indices. This method is widely used but still has significant shortcomings. It heavily relies on the personal experience and subjective judgment of experts, which may overestimate or underestimate some technological risks, or even lead to misjudgments and omissions. Furthermore, expert assessments lack objective and unified evaluation criteria, resulting in potentially large discrepancies in assessment results and difficulty in ensuring scientific rigor. Second, technology maturity assessment has become an important aspect of assessing technological risks in research and development projects. This method mainly involves processes such as project work structure decomposition, key technology selection, and key technology maturity assessment to identify key technologies that constrain project development and evaluate their technology maturity levels, thus providing a foundation for project risk management. However, the data sources for technology maturity assessment are relatively limited, only reflecting the current level of technological development and failing to dynamically and quantitatively reflect the evolution trend of technological risks. Additionally, key technology maturity assessment struggles to reflect the impact of project management and changes in the internal and external environment on the development of different technologies. Third, analytical models based on literature or patent data analyze the trend of the number of papers or patents in a specific technical field over time to determine the maturity level of key technologies and predict future development, thereby identifying technological risks. However, these methods rely on a wide range of literature, and the results given are mostly macro-level technological development, without considering the specific needs and constraints of the research and development project. At the same time, simply using the number of literatures as an indicator to judge the level of technological development is not scientific or objective enough. In addition, they fail to effectively integrate objective data analysis with the in-depth knowledge of domain experts, and lack analysis of the probability of occurrence and impact of specific risk points. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of this invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art and provide a comprehensive assessment method for technical risks in equipment development projects, thus solving the deficiencies of the prior art.

[0005] The objective of this invention is achieved through the following technical solution: a comprehensive assessment method for technical risks in equipment development projects, the assessment method comprising:

[0006] S1. Select key technologies for the project as alternative technical risks and construct a key technology analysis matrix;

[0007] S2. Based on the factors and characteristics that affect the project's technological breakthroughs, calculate each element of the key technology analysis matrix to obtain the technology risk analysis vector;

[0008] S3. Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the key technological risks based on a weighted dynamic penalty mechanism.

[0009] S1 specifically includes the following:

[0010] S101. Based on the project's development requirements and technical solutions, starting from the technologies and hierarchical relationships of each subsystem, a top-down technology decomposition structure is constructed. Experts or evaluation organizations then select key technologies according to standards and screening principles, covering the project's technical challenges, resulting in m key technologies, denoted as a column vector. ;

[0011] S102, Constructing a Key Technology Analysis Matrix .

[0012] S102 specifically includes the following:

[0013] Key Technology Analysis Matrix Total Line, corresponding to the selected Key technologies Each row of the matrix represents a factor that may affect the breakthrough of the corresponding key technology and generate technological risks, denoted as the technology risk analysis vector. ;

[0014] Technology risk analysis vector constructed based on the i-th key technology for This vector contains three factors that influence breakthroughs in key technologies and generate technological risks, namely the status of key technologies. Status of the technology research and development plan and the impact of internal and external environments .

[0015] S2 specifically includes the following:

[0016] S201. Calculate the status of key technologies: For all key technologies identified during project selection... Different calculation methods are selected according to the type of key technology. If the key technology has clear quantifiable index requirements, the first calculation method is used; otherwise, the second calculation method is used.

[0017] S202, Status of the Computing Technology Breakthrough Plan: All key technologies identified in the project selection process... Calculate the project's technical reserves (A), domestic and international technological development (B), and the research and development unit's technical problem-solving organization (C) for each key technology, and then perform integrated calculations.

[0018] S203. Calculate the impact of internal and external environments: This includes all key technologies identified during project selection. Calculate the changes in project resource input (D), project cycle (E), and relevant international situation (F) for each key technology, and calculate the impact of internal and external environments.

[0019] S204, Obtain the technical risk analysis vector of the i-th key technology. Among them, the status of key technologies is as follows: The status of the technology research and development plan is as follows: And the impact of internal and external environments are as follows .

[0020] The first calculation method includes: calculating based on the quantitative indicators corresponding to each key technology. If the i-th key technology is defined by k quantitative indicators, the indicator requirements are as follows: The current levels reached by each indicator are as follows: The status of key technologies is then determined by the worst-case scenario of achieving the target, i.e. ;

[0021] The second calculation method includes: obtaining the key technology maturity level of each technology based on relevant key technology maturity evaluation indicators, denoted as... In conjunction with the key technology maturity targets of the research and development project Calculate the state of each key technology to obtain the key technology state of the i-th key technology. .

[0022] The integrated calculation in S202 includes:

[0023] Project technology reserves for acquiring the i-th key technology Domestic and international technological development The organization of technical research and development units According to the formula The progress of the technical research and development plan for calculating normalized money, including... The domestic and international technological development status of the i-th key technology and the organization of technical research and development units Weighting coefficients;

[0024] Calculation completes all key technologies Technical research and development plan After normalization, the technical breakthrough plan is obtained, and the technical breakthrough plan for the i-th key technology is represented as follows: .

[0025] The calculation of the change in project resource input, D, includes: using the project's expected equivalent input of human resources and funds. Based on the net increase in input. or net reduction The changes in project resource input are calculated, and the changes in project resource input for the i-th key technology are represented as follows: ;

[0026] The calculation of the project cycle variation E includes: based on the expected project cycle. Based on the net increase in cyclical changes or net reduction Calculate the project cycle changes, and represent the project cycle changes of the i-th key technology as follows: ;

[0027] The calculation of the internal and external environmental impacts includes: changes in the project resource investment based on the i-th key technology. Project cycle changes , relevant domestic and international situation changes Through formula Calculate the internal and external environmental impacts of the i-th key technology, where, The changes in project resource investment for the i-th key technology are as follows. Project cycle changes , relevant domestic and international situation changes The weighting coefficients.

[0028] S3 specifically includes the following:

[0029] S301. Based on a weighted dynamic penalty mechanism, obtain the key technology risk occurrence index vector. ;

[0030] S302. Analyze the impact of different key technologies on project development indicators and construct a key technology importance vector. ;

[0031] S303, Combining the project's key technology risk occurrence index vector and the importance vector of key technologies Calculate the comprehensive evaluation index vector of project technical risks. .

[0032] S301 specifically includes the following:

[0033] According to the formula Calculate the weighted average of the status of the i-th key technology, the status of the technology development plan, and the impact of the internal and external environment, where, These are the weighting coefficients for the status of the i-th key technology, the status of the technology development plan, and the impact of the internal and external environment, respectively. The status of the key technology is... The status of the technology research and development plan is as follows: And the impact of internal and external environments are as follows ;

[0034] According to the formula Calculate the absolute minimum value of the status of the i-th key technology, the status of the technology research plan, and the impact of the internal and external environment;

[0035] Sure The weight corresponding to the worst indicator is used as the penalty intensity. The relative difference ratio is calculated as follows: The penalty factor is ,in, Based on the penalty weight, This is the weighting influence coefficient;

[0036] Set a penalty threshold T and calculate the outcome of the i-th key technology breakthrough. ,in, Minimum score protection;

[0037] Calculate the risk occurrence index of the i-th key technology to obtain all A vector of key technology risk occurrence indices is obtained by identifying key technology risk occurrence indices for the project. .

[0038] The status of the key technologies This reflects the current technical status of the key technologies, and its value range is... ;

[0039] The status of the technology breakthrough plan This reflects the technological development and organizational management situation that may affect breakthroughs in key technologies and generate technological risks. The value range is [range missing]. ;

[0040] The impact of changes in the internal and external environment This reflects environmental changes that may affect breakthroughs in key technologies and create technological risks; the value range is [range missing]. .

[0041] The present invention has the following advantages:

[0042] 1. The assessment results take into account factors such as the current state of technology, the possibility of overcoming technical challenges, and changes in the internal and external environment. The way each factor is valued and the method of integrating indicators correspond to their impact mechanism on the project's technical risks, making the assessment results more consistent with practice.

[0043] 2. A weighted dynamic penalty mechanism is proposed to comprehensively calculate various factors affecting project technological breakthroughs and the occurrence index of technological risks. This makes the comprehensive evaluation results more sensitive to the low values ​​of indicators with higher weights. It reflects the management practice that the occurrence index of project technological risks is affected by the weakest factors. The business logic is clear and the parameters are easy to adjust.

[0044] 3. The evaluation process uses a variety of data, combining qualitative and quantitative methods, which effectively reduces the influence of subjective bias from relying solely on expert qualitative judgments.

[0045] 4. The evaluation method is intuitive and easy to understand, computationally efficient, easy to implement through software, and highly operable; the evaluation results are displayed intuitively and are easy to understand. Attached Figure Description

[0046] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the process of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0047] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of this application clearer, the technical solutions of the embodiments of this application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of this application, and not all of the embodiments. The components of the embodiments of this application described and shown in the accompanying drawings can generally be arranged and designed in various different configurations. Therefore, the detailed description of the embodiments of this application provided below with reference to the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of protection of the claimed application, but merely represents selected embodiments of this application. All other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of this application without inventive effort are within the scope of protection of this application. The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0048] This invention specifically relates to a comprehensive assessment method for technical risks in equipment development projects. It constructs a key technology analysis matrix based on the mechanism of technical risk occurrence, fully utilizes objective data to reveal the development laws of key technologies, incorporates expert experience to conduct in-depth risk analysis, and introduces a dynamic penalty mechanism to carry out comprehensive assessment based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of various influencing factors, thereby achieving a scientific, dynamic, and intuitive assessment of the technical risks of development projects.

[0049] like Figure 1 As shown, it specifically includes the following:

[0050] Step 1: Select key technologies for the project as alternative technical risks and construct a key technology analysis matrix.

[0051] Step 101: Based on the project development requirements and technical solutions, construct a top-down technology decomposition structure, starting from the technologies and hierarchical relationships of each subsystem. Experts or the evaluation organization will select key technologies based on relevant national or military standards, considering principles such as criticality and novelty, covering the project's main technical challenges. As an example, a certain system selected... The key technologies are denoted as column vectors. .

[0052] Step 102: Construct a key technology analysis matrix .

[0053] Key Technology Analysis Matrix Total Line, corresponding to the selected Key technologies Each row of the matrix represents a factor that may affect breakthroughs in the corresponding key technologies and generate technological risks; this invention refers to it as a technology risk analysis vector. .

[0054] With the first Taking a key technology as an example, a technology risk analysis vector was constructed. for The number of elements in this vector is determined based on the number of factors influencing breakthroughs in key technologies and generating technological risks. As an example, this invention identifies three factors influencing breakthroughs in key technologies and generating technological risks: the status of key technologies, the status of technology development plans, and the impact of internal and external environments. Therefore, the number of elements in the vector is... The row vector corresponding to each key technology can be denoted as: The value range and practical meaning of each element are as follows:

[0055] (1) Status of key technologies This element reflects the current technical status of the key technology. Its value is determined by the evaluation organization according to the method specified in step 201, and its range is [range missing]. .

[0056] (2) Status of the technology research and development plan This element reflects the technological development and organizational management that may affect breakthroughs in key technologies and generate technological risks. It is determined based on the project's technological reserves, domestic and international technological development, and the research and development unit's organizational structure for tackling key technological challenges. The value is calculated and determined by the evaluation organization according to the method specified in step 202, and its range is [range missing]. .

[0057] (3) Impact of changes in the internal and external environment This reflects environmental changes that may affect breakthroughs in key technologies and create technological risks. These changes are jointly determined by variations in project resource input, project cycle, and relevant domestic and international circumstances. The value is calculated and determined by the assessment organization according to the method specified in step 203, and the range is... .

[0058] Step 2: Based on the factors and characteristics that affect the project's technical breakthroughs, calculate each element of the key technology analysis matrix.

[0059] Step 201: Calculate the status of key technologies.

[0060] All key technologies identified in the project selection Different calculation methods are selected based on the type of key technology.

[0061] If the key technology has clearly quantifiable performance indicators, then method 201-1 should be used for calculation. Otherwise, method 201-2 should be used.

[0062] (1) Method 201-1: The evaluation organization calculates the results based on the quantifiable indicators corresponding to each key technology. (The following is a partial translation of the original text, which is incomplete and requires further context.) Taking a key technology as an example, if the key technology is provided by Each quantifiable indicator is clearly defined, and the requirements for the indicators are as follows: The achievable levels for each indicator are as follows: The status of key technologies is determined by the worst-case scenario of achieving the target, as shown in the following formula:

[0063] ;

[0064] (2) Method 201-2: The assessment organization, based on the relevant key technology maturity evaluation standards, organizes experts to conduct evaluations to obtain the key technology maturity level of each technology, which can be recorded as follows: Subsequently, in conjunction with the key technology maturity targets of the research and development project... Calculate the status of each key technology. (Based on the first...) Taking a key technology as an example, the key technology status of this technology It can be calculated as follows:

[0065] ;

[0066] Step 202: Status of the computing technology research and development plan.

[0067] All key technologies identified in the project selection The evaluation organization will calculate the project's technology reserves for each key technology. Domestic and international technological development The organization of technical research and development units Then, integrated computing is performed.

[0068] With the first Taking a key technology as an example, the definitions and calculation methods of each influencing factor are as follows:

[0069] (1) Project technology reserves The project's technological reserves are primarily determined by the talent, technology, and hardware resources of the undertaking unit and leading domestic institutions that have undertaken similar projects, basic research, and preliminary research. This can be quantified by the evaluation organization through expert review or by examining the talent, technology, and hardware reserves of similar projects, basic research, and preliminary research. The range of values ​​is A higher value indicates a higher level of technological reserves.

[0070] (2) Technological development at home and abroad The determination is primarily based on the current domestic and international development status of upstream and downstream technologies and similar technologies related to key technologies. This can be determined by the evaluation organization through literature analysis or by using artificial intelligence for computational analysis. (Domestic and international technological development status) The range of values ​​is A larger value indicates a better development of the technology.

[0071] (3) The organization of the research and development unit for tackling key technical problems The assessment criteria are primarily determined by the research and development unit's investment in key technology hardware and its organizational management. This can be quantified by the evaluation organization based on literature analysis or expert review. The assessment also includes the research and development unit's organizational structure for tackling key technical challenges. The range of values ​​is When the value is greater than 1, the larger the value, the more the technical organization plays a multiplier role in the technical research and development process; when the value is less than 1, the smaller the value, the more the technical organization has a restrictive effect on the technical research and development process.

[0072] Project technology reserves for each key technology Domestic and international technological development The organization of technical research and development units , to perform integrated computing. (Based on the first...) Taking one key technology as an example, we can obtain information on the project's technological reserves. Domestic and international technological development The organization of technical research and development units Subsequently, considering the different mechanisms by which various factors affect the progress of technological breakthroughs, the technological breakthrough plan before normalization was calculated using the following formula:

[0073] ,

[0074] in, The domestic and international technological development status of the i-th key technology The organization of technical research and development units The weighting coefficients are determined by the evaluation organization through expert review and other methods, based on the characteristics of different key technologies, and are used to adjust the impact of different factors on the progress of the technology breakthrough plan.

[0075] To ensure The range of values ​​conforms to The requirements were met, and all key technologies were calculated and completed. Technical research and development plan Then, normalization is performed. (Based on the first...) Taking one key technology as an example:

[0076] .

[0077] Step 203: Calculate the impact of internal and external environments.

[0078] All key technologies identified in the project selection The evaluation organization will calculate the changes in project resource input for each key technology. Project cycle changes , relevant domestic and international situation changes .

[0079] With the first Taking a key technology as an example, the definitions and calculation methods of each indicator are as follows:

[0080] (1) Changes in project resource input Based on the project's expected human resources, funding, and other equivalent inputs. Based on the net increase in input. or net reduction It can calculate changes in project resource input. :

[0081] ,

[0082] Changes in project resource input The range of values ​​is The larger the value, the more favorable the changes in the project cycle are to changes in the internal and external environment, and the more conducive it is to breakthroughs in key technologies and reduction of technical risks.

[0083] (2) Project cycle changes Based on the project's expected project cycle Based on the net increase in cyclical changes or net reduction It can calculate the changes in the project cycle. :

[0084] ,

[0085] Project cycle changes The range of values ​​is The larger the value, the more favorable the changes in the project cycle are to changes in the internal and external environment, and the more conducive it is to breakthroughs in key technologies and reduction of technical risks.

[0086] (3) Changes in the relevant domestic and international situation : Relevant changes in the domestic and international situation The range of values ​​is The assessment will be conducted by the evaluation organization, taking into account factors such as international and domestic technological cooperation and exchanges, and changes in the supply chain that affect breakthroughs in key technologies, and will be determined by expert review. If the situation remains unchanged, then... The value is 0.5. If the situation develops favorably, facilitating breakthroughs in key project technologies and reducing technical risks, then... The higher the value, the lower the value.

[0087] With the first Taking a key technology as an example, we can obtain information on changes in project resource allocation. Project cycle changes , relevant domestic and international situation changes Subsequently, considering the varying impacts of different factors on the progress of technological breakthroughs, the influence of the internal and external environments was calculated using the following formula:

[0088] ,

[0089] in, The changes in project resource investment for the i-th key technology are as follows. Project cycle changes , relevant domestic and international situation changes The weighting coefficients are determined by the evaluation organization through expert review and other methods, based on the characteristics of different key technologies. It is used to adjust the impact of different factors on the internal and external environment.

[0090] After the calculations in step two are completed, each key technology Technical risk analysis vectors can be obtained from all of them. As an example, the first The technical risk analysis vector for each key technology can be calculated and denoted as . .

[0091] Calculate all One key technology can be obtained, and a key technology analysis matrix can be obtained. As an example, it is possible to obtain... Key technology analysis matrix with 3 rows and 3 columns As shown below:

[0092] .

[0093] Step 3: Comprehensive assessment of key technology risks based on a weighted dynamic penalty mechanism.

[0094] Step 301: Obtain the key technology risk occurrence index vector based on a weighted dynamic penalty mechanism.

[0095] Because the status of key technologies, the progress of technological breakthroughs, and the influence of internal and external environments can all affect the likelihood of technological breakthroughs, the weight of these influences may vary. Furthermore, when one or more indicators are particularly poor, the likelihood of a technological breakthrough is significantly lowered; when all indicators are near their weighted average, the likelihood of a technological breakthrough reflects the weighted average level of each indicator. Therefore, this patent employs a weighted dynamic penalty mechanism to allow important factors to have a greater impact on the overall evaluation, calculate the breakthrough status of key technologies, and thus obtain the risk occurrence index for each key technology. (The text then abruptly shifts to a different topic: "Based on the first...") Take one key technology as an example.

[0096] (1) Calculate the weighted average of the status of key technologies, the status of technology research and development plans, and the impact of internal and external environments.

[0097] ,

[0098] in These are the weighting coefficients for the status of the i-th key technology, the status of the technology development plan, and the impact of the internal and external environment, respectively. Based on the characteristics of different key technologies, these coefficients are used to adjust the different impacts of the key technology status, the technology development plan, and the impact of the internal and external environment. .

[0099] (2) Calculate the weighted minimum penalty: Calculate the absolute minimum of the status of key technologies, the status of the technology development plan, and the impact of internal and external environments:

[0100] ;

[0101] (3) Determine The weight corresponding to the worst indicator is used as the penalty intensity. Calculate the relative difference ratio:

[0102] ,

[0103] Calculate the penalty factor:

[0104] ,

[0105] in, The default value for the base penalty weight is 2, but users can modify it as needed. This is the weighting influence coefficient, which is set to 1 by default in this invention. Users can modify it as needed.

[0106] (4) Set a penalty threshold The default value for this invention is 0.7, which users can modify as needed.

[0107] (5) Calculate the breakthrough status of the i-th key technology. :

[0108] ,

[0109] in, To ensure minimum score protection, the default value in this invention is 0.1, which users can modify themselves.

[0110] (6) Calculate the risk occurrence index of the i-th key technology :

[0111] .

[0112] After completing the calculation in step 301, each key technology Key technology risk occurrence index can be obtained. The range of this value is A higher value indicates a higher likelihood of technological risk occurring. It should be noted that this occurrence index is a relative measure, not a strict probability value.

[0113] Calculate all A vector of key technology risk occurrence indices can be obtained by considering the occurrence index of key technology risks in a project. This index vector can be used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation index vector of project technical risks, or it can be used directly by users to analyze the probability of occurrence of various key technical risks.

[0114] Step 302: Analyze the impact of different key technologies on the project's development indicators and construct a key technology importance vector. .

[0115] This vector is a row vector, where each element represents the corresponding key technology. Based on the technology decomposition structure constructed in step 101, the impact of each key technology on the project's functional performance is obtained through methods such as demonstration unit and research and development unit analysis, and expert review. As an example, the first... Key technologies The impact on the functional performance of the project is recorded as follows: ; The range of values ​​is If the technology has a greater impact on the performance and functionality of the project, then The larger the value, the better; if the technology is directly related to the success or failure of the project, then the value is 1; otherwise, the value is determined by the feasibility study unit, the research and development unit, and expert review, based on the impact of the technology on the project's functionality and performance. Values ​​can be taken within a range.

[0116] Step 303: Calculate the comprehensive evaluation index vector of project technical risks.

[0117] Combining the risk occurrence index vector of key technologies in the project and the importance vector of key technologies Calculate the comprehensive evaluation index vector of project technical risks. :

[0118] ,

[0119] Project Technical Risk Comprehensive Evaluation Index Vector The element , representing the project number A comprehensive risk assessment index for key technologies; The larger it is, the more likely it is to be the first The higher the technical risk index of a key technology, the more necessary it is to take corresponding risk mitigation measures.

[0120] The above description is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the forms disclosed herein and should not be construed as excluding other embodiments. It can be used in various other combinations, modifications, and improvements, and can be altered within the scope of the concept described herein through the above teachings or related technologies or knowledge. Modifications and variations made by those skilled in the art that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be within the protection scope of the appended claims.

Claims

1. A comprehensive assessment method for technical risks in equipment development projects, characterized in that: The evaluation method includes: S1. Select key technologies for the project as alternative technical risks and construct a key technology analysis matrix; S2. Based on the factors and characteristics that affect the project's technological breakthroughs, calculate each element of the key technology analysis matrix to obtain the technology risk analysis vector; S3. Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the key technological risks based on a weighted dynamic penalty mechanism.

2. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: S1 specifically includes the following: S101. Based on the project's development requirements and technical solutions, starting from the technologies and hierarchical relationships of each subsystem, a top-down technology decomposition structure is constructed. Experts or evaluation organizations then select key technologies according to standards and screening principles, covering the project's technical challenges, resulting in m key technologies, denoted as a column vector. ; S102, Constructing a Key Technology Analysis Matrix .

3. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 2, characterized in that: S102 specifically includes the following: Key Technology Analysis Matrix Total Line, corresponding to the selected Key technologies Each row of the matrix represents a factor that may affect the breakthrough of the corresponding key technology and generate technological risks, denoted as the technology risk analysis vector. ; Technology risk analysis vector constructed based on the i-th key technology for This vector contains three factors that influence breakthroughs in key technologies and generate technological risks, namely the status of key technologies. Status of the technology research and development plan and the impact of internal and external environments .

4. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: S2 specifically includes the following: S201. Calculate the status of key technologies: For all key technologies identified during project selection... Different calculation methods are selected according to the type of key technology. If the key technology has clear quantifiable index requirements, the first calculation method is used; otherwise, the second calculation method is used. S202, Status of the Computing Technology Breakthrough Plan: All key technologies identified in the project selection process... Calculate the project's technical reserves (A), domestic and international technological development (B), and the research and development unit's technical problem-solving organization (C) for each key technology, and then perform integrated calculations. S203. Calculate the impact of internal and external environments: This includes all key technologies identified during project selection. Calculate the changes in project resource input (D), project cycle (E), and relevant international situation (F) for each key technology, and calculate the impact of internal and external environments. S204, Obtain the technical risk analysis vector of the i-th key technology. The status of key technologies is as follows: The status of the technology research and development plan is as follows: And the impact of internal and external environments are as follows .

5. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 4, characterized in that: The first calculation method includes: calculating based on the quantitative indicators corresponding to each key technology. If the i-th key technology is defined by k quantitative indicators, the indicator requirements are as follows: The current levels reached by each indicator are as follows: The status of key technologies is then determined by the worst-case scenario of achieving the target, i.e. ; The second calculation method includes: obtaining the key technology maturity level of each technology based on relevant key technology maturity evaluation indicators, denoted as... In conjunction with the key technology maturity targets of the research and development project Calculate the state of each key technology to obtain the key technology state of the i-th key technology. .

6. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 4, characterized in that: The integrated calculation in S202 includes: Project technology reserves for acquiring the i-th key technology Domestic and international technological development The organization of technical research and development units According to the formula The progress of the technical research and development plan for calculating normalized money, including... The domestic and international technological development status of the i-th key technology and the organization of technical research and development units Weighting coefficients; Calculation completes all key technologies Technical research and development plan After normalization, the technical breakthrough plan is obtained, and the technical breakthrough plan for the i-th key technology is represented as follows: .

7. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation of the change in project resource input, D, includes: using the project's expected equivalent input of human resources and funds. Based on the net increase in input. or net reduction The changes in project resource input are calculated, and the changes in project resource input for the i-th key technology are represented as follows: ; The calculation of the project cycle variation E includes: based on the expected project cycle. Based on the net increase in cyclical changes or net reduction Calculate the project cycle changes, and represent the project cycle changes of the i-th key technology as follows: ; The calculation of the internal and external environmental impacts includes: changes in the project resource investment based on the i-th key technology. Project cycle changes , relevant domestic and international situation changes Through formula Calculate the internal and external environmental impacts of the i-th key technology, where, The changes in project resource investment for the i-th key technology are as follows. Project cycle changes , relevant domestic and international situation changes The weighting coefficients.

8. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: S3 specifically includes the following: S301. Based on a weighted dynamic penalty mechanism, obtain the key technology risk occurrence index vector. ; S302. Analyze the impact of different key technologies on project development indicators and construct a key technology importance vector. ; S303, Combining the project's key technology risk occurrence index vector and the importance vector of key technologies Calculate the comprehensive evaluation index vector of project technical risks. .

9. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 8, characterized in that: S301 specifically includes the following: According to the formula Calculate the weighted average of the status of the i-th key technology, the status of the technology development plan, and the impact of the internal and external environment, where, These are the weighting coefficients for the status of the i-th key technology, the status of the technology development plan, and the impact of the internal and external environment, respectively. The status of the key technology is... The status of the technology research and development plan is as follows: And the impact of internal and external environments are as follows ; According to the formula Calculate the absolute minimum value of the status of the i-th key technology, the status of the technology research plan, and the impact of the internal and external environment; Sure The weight corresponding to the worst indicator is used as the penalty intensity. The relative difference ratio is calculated as follows: The penalty factor is ,in, Based on the penalty weight, This is the weighting influence coefficient; Set a penalty threshold T and calculate the outcome of the i-th key technology breakthrough. ,in, Minimum score protection; Calculate the risk occurrence index of the i-th key technology to obtain all A vector of key technology risk occurrence indices is obtained by identifying key technology risk occurrence indices for the project. .

10. The method for comprehensive assessment of technical risks in equipment development projects according to claim 3, characterized in that: The status of the key technologies This reflects the current technical status of the key technologies, and its value range is... ; The status of the technology breakthrough plan This reflects the technological development and organizational management situation that may affect breakthroughs in key technologies and generate technological risks. The value range is [range missing]. ; The impact of changes in the internal and external environment This reflects environmental changes that may affect breakthroughs in key technologies and create technological risks; the value range is [range missing]. .

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