A port dangerous goods storage tank fire early warning method and system

Abstract

The application discloses a port dangerous cargo storage tank fire early warning method and system, and relates to the technical field of safety monitoring. The method comprises the following steps: based on the vapor attribution record of port-ship operation, natural operation disturbance counterfactual verification is implemented on the suspected escape position, negative evidence is formed by using the response loss of the theoretical necessary position to exclude the error source, and a combustible vapor abnormal release event table is generated; according to the combustible vapor abnormal release event table, the migration boundary of heavy vapor in the complex reflux environment of the tank area is tracked, the pre-contact relationship between the vapor influence boundary and the ignition risk position is judged, and a leakage accumulation ignition precursor chain is generated; the application implements bidirectional verification of the suspected escape position by implementing natural operation disturbance counterfactual verification according to the vapor attribution record of port-ship operation and forming negative evidence by using the response loss of the expected response monitoring position, thereby providing a basis for locking the combustible vapor abnormal release event.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of safety monitoring technology, and in particular to an early warning method and system for fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks. Background Technology

[0002] Port hazardous goods storage tanks are responsible for the unloading and storage of flammable and explosive media. During ship loading and unloading, the operating status of the tanks is continuously monitored through pressure, flow rate, gas concentration, and video information. Fire risks are identified by combining combustible gas alarm thresholds, interlock control rules, and on-site handling procedures. Conventional methods generally include ship cargo holds, loading and unloading arms, gas recovery pipelines, and shore-side storage tanks in the monitoring scope. Abnormal emissions are judged based on parameter changes, and loading and unloading are suspended, valves are closed, and risk areas are isolated according to the warning level.

[0003] Conventional methods are difficult to differentiate between normal respiratory emissions and abnormal vapor sources based on the propagation relationship of disturbances during port loading and unloading. Increased concentrations at nearby monitoring locations can easily lead to biased source attribution. Furthermore, they mainly rely on current abnormal parameters to determine the warning status, lacking verification of the spatiotemporal continuity between abnormal vapor release, heavy vapor migration, backflow accumulation, and approaching ignition risk. It is also difficult to use changes in the vapor impact boundary after treatment to correct the warning judgment. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In view of the aforementioned existing problems, the present invention is proposed.

[0005] Therefore, this invention provides an early warning method for fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks to solve the problems of inaccurate attribution of abnormal vapor sources and lack of spatiotemporal continuous verification and handling feedback correction of fire warning status in port ship loading and unloading scenarios.

[0006] To solve the above-mentioned technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solution:

[0007] In a first aspect, the present invention provides an early warning method for fires in dangerous goods storage tanks in ports, which includes: determining the location of material escape, the range of vapor accumulation and the location of ignition risk based on the spatial environment data of the tank area, and establishing a correlation with the escape path of the dangerous medium and the local backflow direction to generate a spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of the storage tank fire.

[0008] Based on the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of storage tank fires, pressure, flow and gas change data during the loading and unloading process of port ships are collected, and the sources of normal breathing emissions and abnormal vapors are distinguished according to the order of disturbance propagation to generate a record of the vapor attribution of port ship operations.

[0009] Based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances was carried out on suspected escaping locations. Negative evidence was generated by using the missing response at theoretically necessary locations to rule out sources of error and to generate an event table of abnormal release of flammable vapors.

[0010] Based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, the migration boundary of heavy vapor in the complex reflux environment of the tank area is tracked, and the pre-contact relationship between the vapor influence boundary and the ignition risk location is determined to generate a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain.

[0011] Based on the precursor chain of leakage accumulation and ignition, the relationship between abnormal release and vapor accumulation and ignition is closed-loop verified, and the early warning status is corrected in reverse by using the contraction response of the vapor influence boundary after treatment, generating an early warning list for fire.

[0012] As a preferred embodiment of the early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires described in this invention, the spatial environment data of the tank area includes the structural boundaries of the storage tank, the location of auxiliary facilities, the elevation difference of the tank area, the boundaries of passageways, the distribution of low-lying areas, the location of electrical equipment, the hot work area, the vehicle passage area, the distribution of monitoring points, and the structural data of the influence of local wind fields.

[0013] As a preferred embodiment of the early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires described in this invention, the steps of determining the material escape location, vapor accumulation range, and ignition risk location, and establishing a correlation with the escape path of the hazardous medium and the local backflow direction to generate a spatial correlation diagram of the precursor to a storage tank fire are as follows:

[0014] Based on the structural boundaries of the storage tank and the location of its auxiliary facilities, the parts that are directly connected to the stored medium and have external openings are identified as material spillway locations.

[0015] Based on the topographic elevation differences of the tank area, the boundaries of passageways, and the distribution of low-lying areas, identify the spatial range in which hazardous media are likely to settle, stagnate, and accumulate after escape, and determine the range of vapor accumulation.

[0016] Based on the spatial distribution of electrical equipment locations, hot work areas, and vehicle traffic areas, identify areas that may generate high-temperature sparks and electrostatic discharge, and determine the locations of ignition risks.

[0017] Based on the spatial connectivity between the material escape location and the vapor accumulation range, and combined with the topographic elevation difference of the tank area, the channel boundary and the structural data of the local wind field influence, the escape path of the hazardous medium and the local backflow direction are determined;

[0018] Based on the escape path of hazardous media and the direction of local backflow, the locations of material escape, vapor accumulation range, and ignition risk locations are spatially connected to generate a spatial correlation diagram of precursors to tank fires.

[0019] As a preferred embodiment of the early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires described in this invention, the step of collecting pressure, flow rate, and gas change data during the loading and unloading process of port ships based on the spatial correlation diagram of storage tank fire precursors includes the following steps:

[0020] Using the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of storage tank fires as the basis for spatial mapping, the correspondence between ship cargo holds, loading and unloading arms, gas phase recovery pipelines, shore-side storage tanks and gas monitoring locations is determined, and a correspondence table of port ship loading and unloading monitoring locations is generated.

[0021] According to the corresponding table of port vessel loading and unloading monitoring locations, data on pressure, flow rate and gas changes during the port vessel loading and unloading process were collected.

[0022] As a preferred embodiment of the early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires described in this invention, the step of distinguishing normal breathing emissions and abnormal vapor sources according to the disturbance propagation order and generating a port vessel operation vapor attribution record is as follows:

[0023] Based on the chronological order of pressure fluctuations, flow rate changes, and gas concentration responses, and by determining the propagation order of disturbances between the ship's cargo hold, loading and unloading arms, gas phase recovery pipeline, and shore-side storage tanks, a port ship loading and unloading disturbance propagation record is generated.

[0024] Gas changes that are synchronized with changes in loading and unloading flow and tank gas phase pressure are marked as normal breathing emissions. Gas changes that deviate from the port vessel loading and unloading disturbance propagation record and continue to expand are identified as abnormal vapor sources, and a port vessel operation vapor attribution record is generated.

[0025] As a preferred embodiment of the early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires described in this invention, the step of performing counterfactual verification of suspected escaping locations based on port vessel operation vapor attribution records includes the following steps:

[0026] Based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, suspected escaping locations and corresponding operating periods are identified, and the corresponding operating periods are matched with the suspected escaping locations to generate natural operational disturbance association records.

[0027] Based on the natural operation disturbance association records, determine whether the suspected escape location produces gas changes with consistent direction and reasonable delay after the operation disturbance occurs, and generate escape counterfactual verification records.

[0028] As a preferred embodiment of the early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires described in this invention, the step of generating a table of abnormal release events of flammable vapors by utilizing the missing response at theoretically necessary locations to form negative evidence to exclude sources of error is as follows:

[0029] Based on the escape counterfactual verification records and the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of the storage tank fire, the expected response monitoring locations along the abnormal vapor propagation path are determined along the direction of abnormal vapor propagation.

[0030] Verify the gas response corresponding to the expected response monitoring location, mark the monitoring location where no continuous response occurs within the allowable delay range as the response missing location, and generate a response verification record;

[0031] Based on the escape counterfactual verification records and response verification records, suspected escape locations lacking disturbance response support and with missing responses are excluded, while abnormal vapor sources with evidence of continuous propagation are retained, and a table of abnormal release events of flammable vapors is generated.

[0032] As a preferred embodiment of the early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires described in this invention, the steps of tracking the migration boundary of heavy steam in the complex reflux environment of the tank area, determining the pre-contact relationship between the steam influence boundary and the ignition risk location, and generating a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain are as follows:

[0033] Based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, the material escape location corresponding to the abnormal vapor source is mapped to the hazardous medium escape path in the spatial association diagram of the precursor of storage tank fire, and an abnormal vapor migration start record is generated.

[0034] Based on the abnormal vapor migration initiation record, and according to the temporal sequence and spatial connection of gas concentration changes at each monitoring location, the movement process of heavy vapor after entering the vapor accumulation range is traced to generate a heavy vapor migration record.

[0035] By combining heavy steam migration records with the structure affected by local wind fields and the distribution of low-lying areas, the outer edge location where heavy steam reflows and continues to cover is identified, and the steam migration boundary is generated.

[0036] Using the vapor migration boundary as the criterion, the distance change and extension direction between the vapor migration boundary and the ignition risk location are compared to determine the pre-contact relationship between the vapor migration boundary and the ignition risk location, and a vapor pre-contact judgment table is generated.

[0037] According to the steam pre-contact judgment table, the abnormal steam release, heavy steam migration, reflux accumulation and ignition risk location approach process are spatiotemporally linked to generate a leakage accumulation ignition precursor chain.

[0038] As a preferred embodiment of the early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires described in this invention, the steps of performing a closed-loop verification of the relationship between abnormal release, vapor accumulation, and ignition proximity, and using the contraction response of the vapor influence boundary after treatment to reverse-correct the warning status and generate an early fire warning list are as follows:

[0039] Based on the precursor chain of leakage accumulation and ignition, the spatiotemporal connection of adjacent processes is verified along the transmission sequence of abnormal vapor release, heavy vapor migration, reflux accumulation and ignition risk being close, the precursor chain closure degree is calculated, and a precursor chain closure degree table is generated.

[0040] Based on the precursor chain closure table and the approach change from the outer edge of the vapor influence boundary to the ignition risk location, the fire warning status corresponding to the leakage accumulation and ignition process is determined, and a fire warning status table is generated.

[0041] Based on the fire warning status table, the abnormal vapor source and vapor influence boundary are used as the basis for determining the scope of response, forming the corresponding operation control content and risk isolation scope of the storage tank, and generating a fire warning response list;

[0042] According to the fire early warning response list, the corresponding storage tanks are suspended from loading and unloading and the leakage path is isolated. The coverage area of ​​the vapor influence boundary before and after the implementation is compared, the vapor influence boundary shrinkage rate is calculated, the fire early warning status is corrected according to the vapor influence boundary shrinkage rate, and an early fire warning list is generated.

[0043] Secondly, the present invention provides an early warning system for fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks, comprising:

[0044] The spatial correlation module determines the location of material escape, the range of vapor accumulation, and the location of ignition risk based on the spatial environment data of the tank area. It also establishes correlations with the escape path of hazardous media and the direction of local backflow to generate a spatial correlation map of the precursors of tank fires.

[0045] The vapor attribution module, based on the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of storage tank fires, collects pressure, flow and gas change data during the loading and unloading process of port ships, and distinguishes between normal breathing emissions and abnormal vapor sources according to the disturbance propagation order, generating a vapor attribution record for port ship operations.

[0046] The counterfactual verification module, based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, performs counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances at suspected emission locations, and uses the lack of response at theoretically necessary locations to form negative evidence to exclude sources of error, generating a table of abnormal release events of flammable vapors.

[0047] The migration pre-contact module tracks the migration boundary of heavy steam in the complex reflux environment of the tank area based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, and determines the pre-contact relationship between the vapor influence boundary and the ignition risk location, generating a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain.

[0048] The early warning correction module, based on the leak accumulation and ignition precursor chain, performs closed-loop verification of the relationship between abnormal release and vapor accumulation and ignition proximity, and uses the contraction response of the vapor influence boundary after treatment to reverse correct the early warning status and generate an early fire warning list.

[0049] The beneficial effects of this invention are as follows: By implementing counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, and by utilizing the lack of response at the expected response monitoring location to form negative evidence, a two-way verification of suspected escaping locations is achieved, providing a basis for locking down abnormal release events of flammable vapors; by constructing a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain, and combining the closure degree of the precursor chain with the shrinkage rate of the vapor influence boundary to correct the fire warning status, continuous confirmation of the process from abnormal vapor release to the approach of the ignition risk location is achieved, enabling the warning to be dynamically adjusted according to the boundary changes after the leakage path is isolated, thereby improving the credibility of fire precursor identification and the targeted nature of on-site handling. Attached Figure Description

[0050] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings used in the following description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0051] Figure 1 A flowchart for early warning of fires in dangerous goods storage tanks at ports.

[0052] Figure 2 A schematic diagram for generating a spatial correlation diagram of precursors to a storage tank fire.

[0053] Figure 3 Flowchart for generating a precursor chain of leaks and accumulation.

[0054] Figure 4 Flowchart for determining the propagation of disturbances and the attribution of steam during loading and unloading of ships in Hong Kong. Detailed Implementation

[0055] To make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more apparent and understandable, the specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0056] Many specific details are set forth in the following description in order to provide a full understanding of the invention. However, the invention may also be practiced in other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art can make similar extensions without departing from the spirit of the invention. Therefore, the invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0057] Secondly, the term "one embodiment" or "embodiment" as used herein refers to a specific feature, structure, or characteristic that may be included in at least one implementation of the present invention. The phrase "in one embodiment" appearing in different places in this specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor is it a single or selective embodiment that is mutually exclusive with other embodiments.

[0058] Reference Figures 1-4As one embodiment of the present invention, this embodiment provides an early warning method for fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks, comprising the following steps:

[0059] S1. Based on the spatial environment data of the tank area, determine the location of material escape, the range of vapor accumulation and the location of ignition risk, and establish a correlation with the escape path of hazardous media and the local backflow direction to generate a spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of tank fire.

[0060] The spatial environment data of the tank farm includes the structural boundaries of the tanks, the location of auxiliary facilities, the topographic elevation difference of the tank farm, the boundaries of passageways, the distribution of low-lying areas, the location of electrical equipment, the hot work area, the vehicle passage area, the distribution of monitoring points, and the structural data on the impact of local wind fields.

[0061] Based on the structural boundaries of the storage tank and the location of its auxiliary facilities, the parts that are directly connected to the stored medium and have external openings are identified as material escape points. External openings refer to outlet parts of the storage tank and its auxiliary facilities that allow the stored medium or volatile vapors to communicate with the external environment, such as breather valve ports, gauging ports, inspection ports, and pipeline interfaces.

[0062] Based on the topographic elevation differences, passage boundaries, and distribution of low-lying areas in the tank area, the spatial range in which hazardous media are likely to settle, stagnate, and accumulate after escape is identified, and the range of vapor accumulation is determined.

[0063] Furthermore, based on the elevation difference of the tank area, the low-lying direction around the material spill location is determined, and the possible sinking and diffusion transmission path of the hazardous medium is delineated along the low-lying direction; combined with the channel boundary, it is checked whether the transmission path is restricted by the enclosure and the channel turning point and the end closure point are identified to form a restricted migration range; the restricted migration range is compared with the distribution of low-lying areas, and the area located at the end of the low-lying area and lacking a smooth discharge path is identified as the settling and retention area, and the area located at the channel turning point and having repeated merging relationship is identified as the backflow accumulation area. The settling and retention area and the backflow accumulation area are merged to determine the vapor accumulation range.

[0064] Based on the spatial distribution of electrical equipment locations, hot work areas, and vehicle traffic areas, identify areas where high-temperature sparks and electrostatic discharge may occur, and determine the locations of ignition risks.

[0065] Furthermore, the installation coordinates and operating boundaries of electrical equipment are read from the tank area layout plan; the center location and control range of the hot work area are read from the hot work permit information; and the path boundaries of the vehicle passage area are read from the vehicle traffic route and on-site positioning information. The locations of electrical equipment, hot work areas, and vehicle passage areas are uniformly mapped to the tank area coordinate reference to obtain the spatial distribution of electrical equipment locations, hot work areas, and vehicle passage areas. The electrical ignition impact zone is determined based on the range of electric arcs and surface high temperatures that may occur during the operation of electrical equipment; the hot work ignition impact zone is determined based on the impact distance of open flames and splashing sparks generated by hot work; and the vehicle ignition impact zone is determined based on the range that may be covered by vehicle start-stop friction, exhaust gas high temperature, and static electricity accumulation. The spatial overlap and verification of the electrical ignition impact zone, hot work ignition impact zone, and vehicle ignition impact zone with the steam accumulation range are performed, and the locations located within the steam accumulation range that have the conditions for high-temperature sparks and electrostatic discharge are determined as ignition risk locations.

[0066] Based on the spatial connectivity between the material escape location and the vapor accumulation range, and combined with the topographic elevation difference of the tank area, channel boundaries, and local wind field influence structure data, the escape path of the hazardous medium and the local backflow direction are determined.

[0067] Furthermore, using the material escape location as the connection starting point, the material escape location and the vapor accumulation range are mapped to a unified tank area space. Adjacent areas extending continuously from high to low are selected based on the elevation difference of the tank area. Areas blocked by storage tank facilities and enclosures are excluded based on the channel boundary. Local wind field influence structure data are used to verify whether airflow transmission is maintained between adjacent areas, thereby establishing a spatial connectivity relationship from the material escape location to the vapor accumulation range. Adjacent areas with decreasing terrain and continuous airflow direction are connected sequentially along the spatial connectivity relationship until the vapor accumulation range is entered, thus determining the escape path of the hazardous medium. The airflow turning position in the hazardous medium escape path is identified. When the airflow is restricted by the channel boundary and turns back to the material escape location, and forms repeated merging in the low-lying area, the local return direction is determined according to the airflow direction from the turning point to the repeated coverage area.

[0068] It should be noted that the hazardous medium escape path refers to the spatial transmission route of the hazardous medium from the material escape location, continuously migrating to the vapor accumulation area under the influence of tank area topographic elevation differences, channel boundaries, and local wind fields. The local backflow direction refers to the direction of airflow when the hazardous medium is turned back and re-enters the vapor accumulation area under the influence of channel boundaries and low-lying areas.

[0069] Based on the escape path of hazardous media and the direction of local backflow, the locations of material escape, vapor accumulation range, and ignition risk locations are spatially connected to generate a spatial correlation diagram of precursors to tank fires.

[0070] Furthermore, the locations of material escape, vapor accumulation, and ignition risk are mapped to a unified tank area coordinate system. Starting from the material escape location, adjacent spatial locations entering the vapor accumulation range are sequentially connected along the hazardous medium escape path. Backflow connections within and around the vapor accumulation range are supplemented according to the local backflow direction. Then, continuously approaching ignition risk locations are connected from the outer edge of the vapor accumulation range, forming a spatial connection relationship from the material escape location to the vapor accumulation range and extending to the ignition risk location. The material escape location, vapor accumulation range, and ignition risk location are marked as different types of spatial nodes. The hazardous medium escape path, local backflow direction, and the connection order between nodes are marked as directed connection lines. The tank area boundary and monitoring point distribution are overlaid to generate a spatial correlation diagram of potential tank fire precursors. This spatial correlation diagram of potential tank fire precursors, by directionally associating the material escape location, vapor accumulation range, and ignition risk location according to the hazardous medium escape path and local backflow direction, allows for continuous tracking of the evolution process from leakage accumulation to near ignition, providing verifiable spatial evidence for early fire warning.

[0071] S2. Based on the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of storage tank fires, collect pressure, flow and gas change data during the loading and unloading process of port ships, and distinguish between normal breathing emissions and abnormal vapor sources according to the order of disturbance propagation to generate a record of the vapor attribution of port ship operations.

[0072] Using the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors to tank fires as the basis for spatial mapping, the correspondence between ship cargo holds, loading and unloading arms, gas phase recovery pipelines, shore-side storage tanks and gas monitoring locations is determined, and a correspondence table of port ship loading and unloading monitoring locations is generated.

[0073] Furthermore, using the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors to tank fires as the basis for spatial mapping, the ship's cargo hold, loading and unloading arm, vapor recovery pipeline, shore-side storage tank, and gas monitoring location are uniformly mapped to the port ship loading and unloading spatial coordinates. The connection relationship of the work objects is established according to the transmission sequence of the hazardous medium from the ship's cargo hold through the loading and unloading arm and vapor recovery pipeline into the shore-side storage tank. Then, the corresponding work objects are matched according to the spatial adjacency of the gas monitoring location with the material escape location, the hazardous medium escape path, and the vapor accumulation range, forming the port ship loading and unloading monitoring location correspondence relationship. The corresponding work object, the adjacent material escape location, the hazardous medium escape path, and the covered vapor accumulation range are written item by item according to the gas monitoring location to generate the port ship loading and unloading monitoring location correspondence table.

[0074] According to the corresponding table of port vessel loading and unloading monitoring locations, data on pressure, flow rate and gas changes during the port vessel loading and unloading process were collected.

[0075] Pressure, flow rate, and gas change data include ship cargo hold pressure, shore-side storage tank gas phase pressure, loading and unloading flow rate, gas phase recovery flow rate, and concentration changes at various gas monitoring locations.

[0076] Based on the chronological order of pressure fluctuations, flow rate changes, and gas concentration responses, and by determining the propagation sequence of disturbances between the ship's cargo hold, loading arm, gas phase recovery pipeline, and shore-side storage tank, a port ship loading and unloading disturbance propagation record is generated.

[0077] Furthermore, based on the port vessel loading and unloading monitoring location correspondence table, pressure fluctuations, flow rate changes, and gas concentration responses are respectively linked to the ship's cargo hold, loading and unloading boom, gas phase recovery pipeline, and shore-side storage tank, and the collection time for each change is unified; taking the operation object that first shows stable change as the disturbance starting point, the response start time of adjacent operation objects is compared along the connection relationship of port vessel loading and unloading operation objects, and the operation objects with continuously increasing response times and consistent change directions are arranged in sequence to determine the propagation order of disturbances among the ship's cargo hold, loading and unloading boom, gas phase recovery pipeline, and shore-side storage tank; each disturbance propagation process is organized according to the disturbance starting point, the operation object it passes through, the response starting time, the interval between adjacent responses, and the corresponding gas monitoring location to generate a port vessel loading and unloading disturbance propagation record.

[0078] Gas changes that are synchronized with changes in loading and unloading flow and tank gas phase pressure are marked as normal breathing emissions. Gas changes that deviate from the port vessel loading and unloading disturbance propagation record and continue to expand are identified as abnormal vapor sources, and a port vessel operation vapor attribution record is generated.

[0079] Furthermore, the port vessel loading and unloading disturbance propagation records serve as verification benchmarks, extracting changes in loading and unloading flow rate, tank gas phase pressure, and gas concentration at adjacent collection times. When the positive or negative direction of the gas concentration change aligns with the linkage direction of the loading and unloading flow rate change and the tank gas phase pressure change, the gas change direction is determined to be consistent. The disturbance initiation time, the estimated time of propagation to the corresponding gas monitoring location, and the allowable response period are determined according to the port vessel loading and unloading disturbance propagation records. When the moment when the gas concentration begins to stabilize falls within the allowable response period, the gas change is determined to match the disturbance propagation period, and gas changes that simultaneously satisfy both direction and time period consistency are marked as normal breathing emissions. For gas changes that do not meet the normal breathing emission conditions, the response sequence of adjacent gas monitoring locations is checked along the port vessel loading and unloading monitoring location correspondence table. When the gas concentration continuously increases from one gas monitoring location to adjacent gas monitoring locations and the coverage area continues to expand, the work object corresponding to the earliest stable increase gas monitoring location is identified as the abnormal vapor source, generating a port vessel operation vapor attribution record.

[0080] It should be noted that normal breathing emissions refer to vapor emissions generated during the loading and unloading process of port vessels due to changes in tank liquid level and gas phase pressure adjustments, which are synchronized with changes in loading and unloading flow rate and tank gas phase pressure. Abnormal vapor sources refer to the earliest work object where a stable concentration increase occurs when gas changes deviate from the propagation sequence of port vessel loading and unloading disturbances and continue to expand along adjacent gas monitoring locations.

[0081] S3. Based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, conduct counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances at suspected emission locations, and use the missing response of theoretically necessary locations to form negative evidence to exclude sources of error, and generate a table of abnormal release events of combustible vapors.

[0082] Based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, suspected escaping locations and corresponding operating periods are identified, and the corresponding operating periods are matched with the suspected escaping locations to generate natural operational disturbance association records.

[0083] Furthermore, based on the steam attribution records of port vessel operations, the source of abnormal steam and the earliest gas monitoring location showing a stable increase in concentration were extracted. Using a port vessel loading and unloading monitoring location correspondence table, the associated work objects and nearby material escape locations were determined. The spatial connectivity between nearby material escape locations and gas monitoring locations was verified along the spatial correlation map of tank fire precursors. Material escape locations upstream of the abnormal steam propagation and connected to the gas monitoring locations were identified as suspected escape locations. The start time of the corresponding work period was defined as the moment when gas changes began to deviate from normal respiration emissions, and the end time was defined as the moment when the gas concentration returned to stability. If the work state switched prematurely, the end time of the corresponding work period was defined as the moment of the work state switch. The occurrence times of natural work disturbances within the corresponding work period were extracted and aligned with the abnormal response times of suspected escape locations to generate natural work disturbance correlation records. These records establish a temporal correspondence between normal work changes and abnormal responses at suspected escape locations, providing traceable evidence for subsequent counterfactual verification, thereby determining whether the abnormal steam was caused by actual escape.

[0084] The corresponding operating periods include loading and unloading pauses, flow rate adjustments, valve switching, and changes in the state of gas phase recovery.

[0085] Based on the natural operation disturbance association records, determine whether the suspected escape location produces gas changes with consistent direction and reasonable delay after the operation disturbance occurs, and generate escape counterfactual verification records.

[0086] Furthermore, based on the records of natural operational disturbances, the occurrence time, direction of change, and gas monitoring locations corresponding to suspected escape locations are extracted. The influence of changes in loading / unloading flow rate, valve status, and gas phase recovery status on vapor release intensity is assessed to determine whether the gas concentration should increase or decrease. The actual gas concentration change direction is compared with the expected change direction; if they match, they are considered consistent. The allowable response period is determined by combining the length of the hazardous medium escape path from the suspected escape location to the gas monitoring location and the local wind field influence structure. If the interval between the moment the gas concentration begins to stabilize and the moment the natural operational disturbance occurs falls within the allowable response period, the delay is considered reasonable. An escape counterfactual verification record is generated by merging the expected change direction, actual change direction, response interval, and verification conclusion according to the suspected escape location. This escape counterfactual verification record verifies whether the suspected escape location truly controls abnormal vapor changes by comparing the expected gas changes before and after the natural operational disturbance, providing verifiable evidence for eliminating sources of error.

[0087] It should be noted that a consistent and reasonably delayed gas change means that the actual gas concentration change direction is consistent with the expected change direction caused by natural operational disturbances, and the time interval between the start of stable gas concentration change is within the allowable response period.

[0088] Based on the escape counterfactual verification records and the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors to the tank fire, the expected response monitoring locations along the abnormal vapor propagation path are determined.

[0089] Furthermore, based on the escape counterfactual verification records, suspected escape locations and corresponding gas change directions verified by natural operational disturbances were identified. These suspected escape locations were then mapped onto a spatial correlation diagram of tank fire precursors. Using the suspected escape locations as the starting points of abnormal vapor propagation, monitoring locations spatially connected to the vapor accumulation area were sequentially screened along the hazardous medium escape path and local backflow direction. It was verified whether each monitoring location was located ahead of the abnormal vapor propagation direction, and the response order was determined according to the path distance from the monitoring location to the suspected escape location. Monitoring locations deviating from the hazardous medium escape path and not connected to the vapor accumulation area were excluded. Monitoring locations that could continuously cover the abnormal vapor propagation process were identified as expected response monitoring locations on the abnormal vapor propagation path. These expected response monitoring locations, by defining the monitoring nodes that should generate a continuous gas response during the abnormal vapor propagation process, provide spatial verification basis for identifying missing responses and eliminating erroneous suspected escape locations.

[0090] Verify the gas response corresponding to the expected response monitoring location, mark the monitoring location where no continuous response occurs within the allowable delay range as the response missing location, and generate a response verification record.

[0091] Furthermore, for each expected response monitoring location, the corresponding gas concentration change is extracted. The moment when a stable gas change occurs at a suspected escape location is taken as the propagation starting point. The expected arrival time and allowable delay range are determined by combining the escape path length of the hazardous medium and the influence structure of the local wind field. Within the allowable delay range, it is checked whether the gas concentration changes in the same direction as the upstream monitoring location and continues to reach the set duration. The response order of adjacent expected response monitoring locations is checked according to the path distance to see if it is continuous. Monitoring locations that do not show continuous gas changes or cause interruptions in the response order are marked as response missing locations. The expected arrival time, actual response time, response duration, and response missing locations are merged according to the expected response monitoring locations to generate a response verification record.

[0092] It should be noted that the allowable delay range is based on the length of the hazardous medium's escape path from the suspected escape location to the expected response monitoring location and the structure of the local wind field influence. It is set by determining the expected propagation time of the abnormal vapor and superimposing monitoring sampling deviations and wind field fluctuation tolerances. The expected response monitoring location refers to the monitoring location located on the abnormal vapor propagation path and where a continuous gas concentration response should occur within the allowable delay range.

[0093] Based on the escape counterfactual verification records and response verification records, suspected escape locations lacking disturbance response support and with missing responses are excluded, while abnormal vapor sources with evidence of continuous propagation are retained, and a table of abnormal release events of flammable vapors is generated.

[0094] Furthermore, based on the escape counterfactual verification records, the expected gas change direction corresponding to the suspected escape location is compared with the actual gas change direction, and the response interval from the time of the natural operational disturbance to the time of stable gas concentration change is checked. When the actual gas change direction does not change accordingly with the natural operational disturbance and the response interval exceeds the allowable response period, the suspected escape location is determined to lack disturbance response support. Based on the response verification records, each expected response monitoring location is checked along the hazardous medium escape path. When the expected response monitoring location does not show continuous gas concentration changes within the allowable delay range and causes adjacent expected response monitoring locations to experience changes, the expected response monitoring location is determined to be the one lacking disturbance response support. When the response sequence is interrupted, suspected escape locations are identified as having missing responses. Suspected escape locations lacking both disturbance response support and missing responses are excluded. For the remaining suspected escape locations, each expected response monitoring location is checked to ensure that consistent gas concentration changes occur continuously from closest to furthest along the path, and that adjacent response intervals are within the allowable delay range. Abnormal vapor sources meeting these conditions are identified as having evidence of continuous propagation. A combustible vapor abnormal release event table is generated by compiling the corresponding material escape location, abnormal release period, hazardous medium escape path, and continuous propagation evidence according to the abnormal vapor source. This combustible vapor abnormal release event table, by aggregating disturbance response support, missing responses, and continuous propagation evidence, eliminates erroneous suspected escape locations and identifies the true abnormal vapor source, providing reliable event evidence for subsequent heavy steam migration tracking.

[0095] It should be noted that disturbance response support refers to the actual gas change direction at the suspected escape location being consistent with the expected change direction caused by natural operational disturbance, and the response interval being within the permissible response period. Evidence of continuous propagation refers to the consistent gas concentration changes at each expected response monitoring location, arranged sequentially from near to far along the hazardous medium's escape path, with adjacent response intervals all within the permissible delay range.

[0096] S4. Based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, track the migration boundary of heavy vapor in the complex reflux environment of the tank area, determine the pre-contact relationship between the vapor influence boundary and the ignition risk location, and generate a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain.

[0097] Based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, the material escape location corresponding to the abnormal vapor source is mapped to the hazardous medium escape path in the spatial association diagram of the precursor to a tank fire, and an abnormal vapor migration initiation record is generated.

[0098] Furthermore, based on the table of abnormal flammable vapor release events, according to the coordinates of the material escaping location corresponding to the abnormal vapor source and the time of abnormal release, the overlapping material escaping location nodes are found in the spatial association diagram of the precursor to the tank fire. The hazard medium escaping paths leading to the vapor accumulation range and consistent with the direction of abnormal vapor propagation are selected along the directed paths connected by the material escaping location nodes. When a material escaping location node connects to multiple hazard medium escaping paths, the hazard medium escaping paths that can sequentially pass through the expected response monitoring locations are retained, based on the expected response monitoring location order corresponding to the continuous propagation evidence. The material escaping location node is used as the migration starting point, the time of abnormal release is used as the migration start time, and the corresponding hazard medium escaping path is associated to generate an abnormal vapor migration start record.

[0099] Based on the abnormal vapor migration initiation record, and according to the temporal sequence and spatial connection of gas concentration changes at each monitoring location, the movement process of heavy vapor after entering the vapor accumulation range is tracked, and a heavy vapor migration record is generated.

[0100] Furthermore, based on the abnormal vapor migration initiation record, the material escape location, migration initiation time, and corresponding hazardous medium escape path are determined. Adjacent monitoring locations are sequentially connected along the hazardous medium escape path in the spatial correlation diagram of the tank fire precursor. Combined with the local backflow direction, the internal reversal connection within the vapor accumulation range is supplemented. Spatial connection relationship is established according to the path adjacency relationship and upstream and downstream order between monitoring locations. Taking the material escape location as the tracing starting point, the spatial connection relationship is matched according to the time when the gas concentration at each monitoring location begins to steadily increase. Monitoring locations with continuously increasing response times and consistent connection directions are sequentially connected in series to confirm the entry location of heavy steam into the vapor accumulation range. The movement and repeated coverage process of the concentration increase area are continued to be tracked along the local backflow direction. Heavy steam migration record is generated according to the migration initiation time, the monitoring location passed through, the time of entering the vapor accumulation range, and the movement order.

[0101] It should be noted that heavy steam refers to hazardous medium vapors with a relatively high air density that, after dissipating, sinks and diffuses along the ground surface and easily accumulates in low-lying areas. The vapor accumulation range is determined based on the topographic elevation differences of the tank farm, the boundaries of passageways, and the distribution of low-lying areas. It is established by identifying the spatial range within which hazardous media, after dissipating, settle along the low-lying direction and accumulate and flow back in confined passageways and low-lying areas.

[0102] By combining heavy steam migration records with the structure affected by local wind fields and the distribution of low-lying areas, the outer edge location where heavy steam reflows and continues to cover is identified, and the steam migration boundary is generated.

[0103] Furthermore, by combining the heavy steam migration records, the response time and migration order of each monitoring location are extracted, and the influence structure of the local wind field is used to determine whether the heavy steam deviates from the dominant migration direction and returns to the covered area. When the monitoring location in the return direction repeatedly shows an increase in gas concentration during the continuous monitoring period, the corresponding area is identified as the return coverage area. The adjacent monitoring locations are checked step by step outward from the return coverage area. The location that still maintains a continuous gas response and the adjacent monitoring location on the outside no longer shows an effective response is identified as the outer edge location where the heavy steam returns and continues to cover. Each outer edge location is mapped to a low-lying area and connected according to the spatial adjacency order to form a closed outer edge line surrounding the return coverage area, generating the steam migration boundary.

[0104] Using the vapor migration boundary as the criterion, the distance change and extension direction between the vapor migration boundary and the ignition risk location are compared to determine the pre-contact relationship between the vapor migration boundary and the ignition risk location, and a vapor pre-contact judgment table is generated.

[0105] Furthermore, using the vapor migration boundary as the criterion, the vapor migration boundary and the ignition risk location are mapped to a unified tank area coordinate system. During continuous monitoring, the boundary point closest to each ignition risk location is selected from the outer edge of the vapor migration boundary, and the change in the shortest distance from the nearest boundary point to the ignition risk location is compared in chronological order. The displacement direction of the corresponding boundary point in adjacent monitoring times is connected to form the extension direction of the vapor migration boundary. At the same time, the current boundary point is connected to the ignition risk location to form the risk approach direction. By checking the consistency between the extension direction of the vapor migration boundary and the risk approach direction, it is determined whether the vapor migration boundary continues to expand towards the ignition risk location. When the shortest distance continuously decreases and the extension direction of the vapor migration boundary continues to point towards the ignition risk location, it is determined that there is a pre-contact relationship between the vapor migration boundary and the ignition risk location. The changes in the shortest distance, the consistency of the direction, and the pre-contact judgment conclusion are organized according to the ignition risk location to generate a vapor pre-contact judgment table.

[0106] According to the steam pre-contact judgment table, the abnormal steam release, heavy steam migration, reflux accumulation and ignition risk location approach process are spatiotemporally linked to generate a leakage accumulation ignition precursor chain.

[0107] Furthermore, based on the pre-contact judgment table, ignition risk locations and corresponding judgment time periods with pre-contact relationships are extracted. Taking the abnormal release time in the combustible vapor abnormal release event table as the starting point, the response times of each monitoring location in the heavy steam migration record are arranged in chronological order, and the continuity of time between abnormal vapor release, heavy steam migration, backflow accumulation, and approach to the ignition risk location is verified. Simultaneously, along the spatial correlation diagram of the precursor to a tank fire, the material escape location is connected to the vapor accumulation range via the hazardous medium escape path, and then connected to the ignition risk location via the vapor migration boundary. Processes with time interruptions and spatial discontinuities are eliminated, and the processes with continuous time sequence and closed spatial paths are sequentially linked to generate a leakage accumulation ignition precursor chain. The leakage accumulation ignition precursor chain, by spatiotemporally linking the abnormal vapor release, heavy steam migration, backflow accumulation, and approach to the ignition risk location processes, allows the continuous evolution relationship before the formation of a tank fire to be verified, providing a basis for early identification of ignition risks.

[0108] S5. Based on the leak accumulation ignition precursor chain, the relationship between abnormal release and vapor accumulation and ignition is closed-loop verified, and the early warning status is corrected in reverse by using the contraction response of the vapor influence boundary after treatment, generating an early fire warning list.

[0109] Based on the precursor chain of leakage accumulation and ignition, the spatiotemporal connection of adjacent processes is verified along the transmission sequence of abnormal vapor release, heavy vapor migration, reflux accumulation and ignition risk being close, the precursor chain closure degree is calculated, and a precursor chain closure degree table is generated.

[0110] Furthermore, based on the precursor chain of leakage accumulation and ignition, according to three sets of adjacent processes—from abnormal vapor release to heavy vapor migration, from heavy vapor migration to reflux accumulation, and from reflux accumulation to the proximity of the ignition risk location—the termination time of the previous process and the start time of the next process are extracted to determine the actual response interval. The expected response interval and allowable time deviation are determined based on the corresponding vapor propagation distance and the local wind field influence structure. Simultaneously, the termination position of the previous process and the start position of the next process are extracted to determine the shortest spatial distance. The maximum allowable connection distance is set based on the monitoring point spacing and the continuous range of the hazardous medium escape path. The deviation of the actual response interval from the expected response interval is compared with the allowable time deviation to obtain the temporal continuity. The shortest spatial distance is compared with the maximum allowable connection distance to obtain the spatial continuity. Continuity below the effective range is treated as zero. The temporal continuity and spatial continuity of each set of adjacent processes are multiplied to form three sets of spatiotemporal connection values. The cube root of the product of the three sets of spatiotemporal connection values ​​is taken to obtain the precursor chain closure degree, generating a precursor chain closure degree table.

[0111] It should be noted that spatiotemporal continuity refers to the reasonable continuity of adjacent processes in terms of occurrence time, and the spatial connection between the termination position of the preceding process and the starting position of the following process in terms of the path of hazardous medium escape. Precursor chain closure refers to the comprehensive degree of consistency in temporal continuity and spatial connectivity between adjacent stages during the process from abnormal vapor release to the approach of the ignition risk location.

[0112] The expression for calculating the closure degree of the precursor chain is:

[0113]

[0114] in, Indicates the degree of closure of the precursor chain. The sequence number indicates the connection between adjacent processes, corresponding sequentially to the proximity of abnormal vapor release and heavy steam migration, heavy steam migration and reflux accumulation, and reflux accumulation and ignition risk locations. Indicates the first The time interval between adjacent processes forming a continuous response in actual monitoring. This indicates the first [structure] determined based on the vapor propagation distance and the influence of the local wind field. Expected response intervals between adjacent processes Indicates the first The permissible deviation between the actual response interval and the expected response interval of adjacent processes. Indicates the first The shortest spatial distance between the ending position of the previous process and the starting position of the next process in a group of adjacent processes. Indicates the first The maximum allowable connection distance when adjacent processes in a group maintain spatial continuity.

[0115] Based on the precursor chain closure table and the approaching change from the outer edge of the vapor influence boundary to the ignition risk location, the fire warning status corresponding to the leakage accumulation and ignition process is determined, and a fire warning status table is generated.

[0116] Furthermore, based on the precursor chain closure table, the precursor chain closure corresponding to the leak accumulation ignition precursor chain is read, and the completeness of the process from abnormal vapor release to approaching the ignition risk location is judged according to the preset closure interval. The shortest distance from the outer edge of the vapor influence boundary to the ignition risk location is continuously extracted, and the shortest distances of adjacent monitoring times are compared. When the shortest distance remains unchanged or gradually increases, it is determined that the vapor influence boundary has not formed a continuous approach. When the shortest distance continuously decreases and the extension direction of the vapor influence boundary points to the ignition risk location, it is determined that the vapor influence boundary has formed a continuous approach. When the current precursor chain closure only supports the abnormal vapor release process and has not formed a continuous approach of the vapor influence boundary, it is determined to be a leak concern state. When the current precursor chain closure supports the continuous establishment of abnormal vapor release and backflow accumulation and the vapor influence boundary has not continuously approached the ignition risk location, it is determined to be a vapor accumulation warning state. When the current precursor chain closure supports the closure of the entire leak accumulation ignition process and the vapor influence boundary continuously approaches the ignition risk location, it is determined to be an ignition high-risk state. The corresponding precursor chain closure, shortest distance change, continuous approach judgment, and fire warning status are written according to the leak accumulation ignition precursor chain to generate a fire warning status table.

[0117] It should be noted that the fire warning status refers to the judgment status formed based on the proximity and change of the precursor chain closure degree and vapor influence boundary, indicating the risk stage of the leakage accumulation and ignition process; for example, leakage concern status, vapor accumulation warning status, and high ignition risk status. The closure degree range is set by statistically analyzing the boundary range of each risk stage and superimposing a safety margin, based on the precursor chain closure degree distribution corresponding to different fire risk stages in leakage tests and on-site monitoring.

[0118] Based on the fire warning status table, the abnormal vapor source and vapor impact boundary are used as the basis for determining the scope of response, forming the corresponding operation control content and risk isolation scope of the storage tank, and generating a fire warning response list.

[0119] Furthermore, the fire warning status of the corresponding storage tank is read from the fire warning status table, and the abnormal vapor source is mapped to the associated loading and unloading pipelines, valves, and material escaping locations. The operation control range that needs to stop loading and unloading and implement leakage path isolation is determined along the equipment connection relationship. Using the vapor influence boundary as the outer control boundary, and combining the extension direction of the vapor influence boundary to the ignition risk location, the risk isolation range that prohibits vehicle entry, stops hot work, and restricts personnel passage is delineated. The operation control range and risk isolation range are adjusted from low to high according to the fire warning status. The corresponding storage tank, abnormal vapor source, operation control content, risk isolation range, and execution order are merged to generate a fire warning response list.

[0120] It should be noted that the operational control content refers to the loading and unloading stoppage and related valve closure operations determined for loading and unloading operations and leakage paths corresponding to abnormal vapor sources. The risk isolation range refers to the area designated as a vehicle-restricted, hot work-stopped, and personnel-restricted zone based on the vapor influence boundary and its extension direction.

[0121] According to the fire early warning response list, the corresponding storage tanks are suspended from loading and unloading and the leakage path is isolated. The coverage area of ​​the vapor influence boundary before and after the implementation is compared, the vapor influence boundary shrinkage rate is calculated, the fire early warning status is corrected according to the vapor influence boundary shrinkage rate, and an early fire warning list is generated.

[0122] The expression for calculating the effect of vapor on boundary contraction rate is:

[0123] ;

[0124] in, This indicates that vapor affects the boundary shrinkage rate. This indicates the equivalent diameter of the vapor impact boundary before the loading / unloading is stopped and the leakage path is isolated. This indicates the equivalent diameter of the vapor impact boundary after the loading / unloading is stopped and the leakage path is isolated. This indicates the vapor impact boundary coverage area after the loading / unloading is stopped and the leakage path is isolated. This indicates the vapor impact boundary coverage area before the loading / unloading is stopped and the leakage path is isolated.

[0125] Furthermore, according to the fire early warning response list, loading and unloading are suspended and leakage paths are isolated for the corresponding storage tanks. Under the same tank area coordinate reference and the same monitoring period length, the vapor migration boundary before and after execution is extracted. Continuous outer edge positions are connected sequentially to form a closed boundary, and the corresponding vapor impact boundary coverage area is determined. The spatial overlap of the vapor impact boundary coverage areas before and after execution is compared to identify boundary retreat areas and areas that continue to expand, and the vapor impact boundary coverage area before and after execution is determined respectively. The vapor impact boundary coverage areas before and after execution are converted into equivalent diameters of circles of the same area. The vapor impact boundary contraction rate is determined by the ratio of the difference in equivalent diameters before and after execution to the equivalent diameter before execution, which is equivalent to using the square root of the ratio of the vapor impact boundary coverage area after execution to the area before execution to characterize the boundary scale change. Based on the vapor impact boundary contraction rate, it is determined whether the vapor impact boundary has effectively contracted after loading and unloading suspension and leakage path isolation. Fire early warning statuses with continuous contraction are downgraded, while fire early warning statuses without contraction or continuing to expand are maintained or upgraded, generating an early fire warning list.

[0126] This embodiment also provides an early warning system for fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks, including:

[0127] The spatial correlation module determines the location of material escape, the range of vapor accumulation, and the location of ignition risk based on the spatial environment data of the tank area. It also establishes correlations with the escape path of hazardous media and the direction of local backflow to generate a spatial correlation map of the precursors of tank fires.

[0128] The vapor attribution module, based on the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of storage tank fires, collects pressure, flow and gas change data during the loading and unloading process of port ships, and distinguishes between normal breathing emissions and abnormal vapor sources according to the disturbance propagation order, generating a vapor attribution record for port ship operations.

[0129] The counterfactual verification module, based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, performs counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances at suspected emission locations, and uses the lack of response at theoretically necessary locations to form negative evidence to exclude sources of error, generating a table of abnormal release events of flammable vapors.

[0130] The migration pre-contact module tracks the migration boundary of heavy steam in the complex reflux environment of the tank area based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, and determines the pre-contact relationship between the vapor influence boundary and the ignition risk location, generating a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain.

[0131] The early warning correction module, based on the leak accumulation and ignition precursor chain, performs closed-loop verification of the relationship between abnormal release and vapor accumulation and ignition proximity, and uses the contraction response of the vapor influence boundary after treatment to reverse correct the early warning status and generate an early fire warning list.

[0132] In summary, this invention achieves bidirectional verification of suspected escaping locations by: implementing counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances based on port vessel steam attribution records, and utilizing the lack of response at expected response monitoring locations to form negative evidence, thus providing a basis for identifying abnormal flammable vapor release events; by constructing a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain and combining the closure degree of the precursor chain with the contraction rate of the vapor influence boundary to correct the fire warning status, it achieves continuous confirmation of the process from abnormal vapor release to the approach of the ignition risk location, enabling the warning to be dynamically adjusted according to the boundary changes after the leak path is isolated, thereby improving the credibility of fire precursor identification and the targeted nature of on-site handling.

[0133] It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and are not intended to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can be made to the technical solutions of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, and all such modifications or substitutions should be covered within the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for early warning of fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks, characterized in that, include: Based on the spatial environment data of the tank area, the location of material escape, the range of vapor accumulation and the location of ignition risk are determined. The correlation is established by combining the escape path of the hazardous medium and the local backflow direction to generate a spatial correlation map of the precursors of the storage tank fire. Based on the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of storage tank fires, pressure, flow and gas change data during the loading and unloading process of port ships are collected, and the sources of normal breathing emissions and abnormal vapors are distinguished according to the order of disturbance propagation to generate a record of the vapor attribution of port ship operations. Based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances was carried out on suspected escaping locations. Negative evidence was generated by using the missing response at theoretically necessary locations to rule out sources of error and to generate an event table of abnormal release of flammable vapors. Based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, the migration boundary of heavy vapor in the complex reflux environment of the tank area is tracked, and the pre-contact relationship between the vapor influence boundary and the ignition risk location is determined to generate a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain. Based on the precursor chain of leakage accumulation and ignition, the relationship between abnormal release and vapor accumulation and ignition is closed-loop verified, and the early warning status is corrected in reverse by using the contraction response of the vapor influence boundary after treatment, thus generating an early warning list for fire.

2. The early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires as described in claim 1, characterized in that: The spatial environment data of the tank area includes the structural boundaries of the tanks, the location of auxiliary facilities, the elevation difference of the tank area, the boundaries of passageways, the distribution of low-lying areas, the location of electrical equipment, the hot work area, the vehicle passage area, the distribution of monitoring points, and the structural data on the impact of local wind fields.

3. The early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The steps for determining the location of material escape, the range of vapor accumulation, and the location of ignition risk, and establishing a correlation between these factors and the escape path of the hazardous medium and the direction of local backflow to generate a spatial correlation diagram of the precursors to a storage tank fire, are as follows: Based on the structural boundaries of the storage tank and the location of its auxiliary facilities, the parts that are directly connected to the stored medium and have external openings are identified as material spillway locations. Based on the topographic elevation differences of the tank area, the boundaries of passageways, and the distribution of low-lying areas, identify the spatial range in which hazardous media are likely to settle, stagnate, and accumulate after escape, and determine the range of vapor accumulation. Based on the spatial distribution of electrical equipment locations, hot work areas, and vehicle traffic areas, identify areas that may generate high-temperature sparks and electrostatic discharge, and determine the locations of ignition risks. Based on the spatial connectivity between the material escape location and the vapor accumulation range, and combined with the topographic elevation difference of the tank area, the channel boundary and the structural data of the local wind field influence, the escape path of the hazardous medium and the local backflow direction are determined; Based on the escape path of hazardous media and the direction of local backflow, the locations of material escape, vapor accumulation range, and ignition risk locations are spatially connected to generate a spatial correlation diagram of precursors to tank fires.

4. The method for early warning of fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the spatial correlation diagram of precursory tank fires, the following steps are taken to collect pressure, flow rate, and gas change data during the loading and unloading process of ships at the port: Using the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of storage tank fires as the basis for spatial mapping, the correspondence between ship cargo holds, loading and unloading arms, gas phase recovery pipelines, shore-side storage tanks and gas monitoring locations is determined, and a correspondence table of port ship loading and unloading monitoring locations is generated. According to the corresponding table of port vessel loading and unloading monitoring locations, data on pressure, flow rate and gas changes during the port vessel loading and unloading process were collected.

5. The early warning method for port dangerous goods storage tank fires as described in claim 4, characterized in that, The steps for distinguishing between normal respiratory emissions and abnormal vapor sources according to the disturbance propagation order, and generating a port vessel operation vapor attribution record, are as follows: Based on the chronological order of pressure fluctuations, flow rate changes, and gas concentration responses, and by determining the propagation order of disturbances between the ship's cargo hold, loading and unloading arms, gas phase recovery pipeline, and shore-side storage tanks, a port ship loading and unloading disturbance propagation record is generated. Gas changes that are synchronized with changes in loading and unloading flow and tank gas phase pressure are marked as normal breathing emissions. Gas changes that deviate from the port vessel loading and unloading disturbance propagation record and continue to expand are identified as abnormal vapor sources, and a port vessel operation vapor attribution record is generated.

6. The method for early warning of fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, the counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances at suspected emission locations is performed as follows: Based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, suspected escaping locations and corresponding operating periods are identified, and the corresponding operating periods are matched with the suspected escaping locations to generate natural operational disturbance association records. Based on the natural operation disturbance association records, determine whether the suspected escape location produces gas changes with consistent direction and reasonable delay after the operation disturbance occurs, and generate escape counterfactual verification records.

7. The method for early warning of fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks as described in claim 6, characterized in that, The steps for generating a table of abnormal flammable vapor release events by utilizing the missing response at theoretically necessary locations to form negative evidence and eliminate sources of error are as follows: Based on the escape counterfactual verification records and the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of the storage tank fire, the expected response monitoring locations along the abnormal vapor propagation path are determined along the direction of abnormal vapor propagation. Verify the gas response corresponding to the expected response monitoring location, mark the monitoring location where no continuous response occurs within the allowable delay range as the response missing location, and generate a response verification record; Based on the escape counterfactual verification records and response verification records, suspected escape locations lacking disturbance response support and with missing responses are excluded, while abnormal vapor sources with evidence of continuous propagation are retained, and a table of abnormal release events of flammable vapors is generated.

8. The method for early warning of fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The steps for tracking the migration boundary of heavy steam in the complex reflux environment of the tank farm, determining the pre-contact relationship between the steam influence boundary and the ignition risk location, and generating a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain are as follows: Based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, the material escape location corresponding to the abnormal vapor source is mapped to the hazardous medium escape path in the spatial association diagram of the precursor of storage tank fire, and an abnormal vapor migration start record is generated. Based on the abnormal vapor migration initiation record, and according to the temporal sequence and spatial connection of gas concentration changes at each monitoring location, the movement process of heavy vapor after entering the vapor accumulation range is traced to generate a heavy vapor migration record. By combining heavy steam migration records with the structure affected by local wind fields and the distribution of low-lying areas, the outer edge location where heavy steam reflows and continues to cover is identified, and the steam migration boundary is generated. Using the vapor migration boundary as the criterion, the distance change and extension direction between the vapor migration boundary and the ignition risk location are compared to determine the pre-contact relationship between the vapor migration boundary and the ignition risk location, and a vapor pre-contact judgment table is generated. According to the steam pre-contact judgment table, the abnormal steam release, heavy steam migration, reflux accumulation and ignition risk location approach process are spatiotemporally linked to generate a leakage accumulation ignition precursor chain.

9. The method for early warning of fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The steps for performing a closed-loop verification of the relationship between abnormal release, vapor accumulation, and ignition proximity, and for using the contraction response of the vapor influence boundary after treatment to inversely correct the early warning status and generate an early fire warning list are as follows: Based on the precursor chain of leakage accumulation and ignition, the spatiotemporal connection of adjacent processes is verified along the transmission sequence of abnormal vapor release, heavy vapor migration, reflux accumulation and ignition risk being close, the precursor chain closure degree is calculated, and a precursor chain closure degree table is generated. Based on the precursor chain closure table and the approach change from the outer edge of the vapor influence boundary to the ignition risk location, the fire warning status corresponding to the leakage accumulation and ignition process is determined, and a fire warning status table is generated. Based on the fire warning status table, the abnormal vapor source and vapor influence boundary are used as the basis for determining the scope of disposal, forming the corresponding operation control content and risk isolation scope of the storage tank, and generating a fire warning disposal list; According to the fire early warning response list, the corresponding storage tanks are suspended from loading and unloading and the leakage path is isolated. The coverage area of ​​the vapor influence boundary before and after the implementation is compared, the vapor influence boundary shrinkage rate is calculated, the fire early warning status is corrected according to the vapor influence boundary shrinkage rate, and an early fire warning list is generated.

10. An early warning system for fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks, based on the early warning method for fires in port dangerous goods storage tanks according to any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that, include: The spatial correlation module determines the location of material escape, the range of vapor accumulation, and the location of ignition risk based on the spatial environment data of the tank area. It also establishes correlations with the escape path of hazardous media and the direction of local backflow to generate a spatial correlation map of the precursors of tank fires. The vapor attribution module, based on the spatial correlation diagram of the precursors of storage tank fires, collects pressure, flow and gas change data during the loading and unloading process of port ships, and distinguishes between normal breathing emissions and abnormal vapor sources according to the disturbance propagation order, generating a vapor attribution record for port ship operations. The counterfactual verification module, based on the steam attribution records of port vessels, performs counterfactual verification of natural operational disturbances at suspected emission locations, and uses the lack of response at theoretically necessary locations to form negative evidence to exclude sources of error, generating a table of abnormal release events of flammable vapors. The migration pre-contact module tracks the migration boundary of heavy steam in the complex reflux environment of the tank area based on the abnormal release event table of combustible vapor, and determines the pre-contact relationship between the vapor influence boundary and the ignition risk location, generating a leak accumulation ignition precursor chain. The early warning correction module, based on the leak accumulation and ignition precursor chain, performs a closed-loop verification of the relationship between abnormal release and vapor accumulation and ignition proximity, and uses the contraction response of the vapor influence boundary after treatment to reverse correct the early warning status and generate an early fire warning list.

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