Operation risk early warning and active protection control method, system and device for cold and heat load system

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of operation risk early warning and active protection control method, system and device of cold and heat load system, and it is related to energy management technical field.The method comprises: with preset sampling period, the load rate of each equipment in system, supply and return water temperature, start-stop state and communication state data are collected;In sliding time window, the collected data is counted and trend is calculated;When any index meets threshold condition and continuously reaches preset length, risk event is generated and comprehensive risk level is calculated;In advance time window, according to risk level, automatically generate protection control strategy;During the execution of protection strategy, change rate limit is applied to control quantity to maintain energy supply continuity;When index recovers to safe interval and stable operation reaches preset recovery length, protection strategy is removed and normal dispatching mode is restored.The application changes cold and heat load system from post-failure recovery to pre-failure prevention, and improves the operation reliability and autonomy level of comprehensive energy station.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of energy management technology, and in particular to a method, system and device for early warning and active protection control of operational risks in a cooling and heating load system. Background Technology

[0002] In integrated energy stations and district cooling and heating systems, central air conditioning units, ground source heat pumps, electric boilers, and valve-controlled terminal equipment work together through multi-heat source coupling to supply cooling and heating loads. Their stable operation is directly related to the system's continuous energy supply capacity and the comfort of end users.

[0003] Existing heating and cooling load control systems typically focus on scheduling optimization or real-time control, achieving energy efficiency improvements and load distribution under normal equipment conditions. However, in actual engineering operations, many devices often exhibit obvious signs of degradation before failure, such as prolonged high-load operation of heat pumps, abnormal differences between supply and return water temperatures, increased communication jitter at control nodes, and frequent equipment start-ups and shutdowns. These phenomena usually indicate a decline in the reliability of equipment or control links, and if not addressed promptly, can easily escalate into interlocking triggers, equipment shutdowns, or communication failures.

[0004] Existing systems mostly handle the above-mentioned risk signals through alarm prompts or manual monitoring. This requires maintenance personnel to manually reduce load, switch, or reschedule after investigation, lacking automated early intervention capabilities. As a result, the system often only resumes control after a failure occurs, which not only increases maintenance costs but may also cause fluctuations or even interruptions in cooling and heating supply. Summary of the Invention

[0005] One objective of this application is to provide a method, system, and device for early warning and proactive protection control of operational risks in a cooling and heating load system, aiming to solve the problem that existing cooling and heating load systems only require manual intervention or recovery control after a fault occurs and lack proactive protection capabilities before a fault occurs, resulting in insufficient operational reliability.

[0006] In a first aspect, embodiments of this application provide a method for early warning and active protection control of operational risks in a cooling and heating load system, comprising: The system collects operating data of each device within the system at a preset sampling period. The operating data includes load rate, water supply temperature, return water temperature, start / stop status, and communication status data. Within a preset sliding time window, the collected operating data is statistically analyzed and trended to obtain a set of risk characterization indicators. The set of risk characterization indicators includes at least two of the following: load change rate, deviation of supply and return water temperature difference, communication delay fluctuation amplitude, and number of start-stop cycles. When any risk characterization indicator meets the corresponding preset threshold judgment condition and the duration is not less than the preset duration, the corresponding risk event is generated, and the comprehensive risk level is calculated based on the generated risk event. Within a preset advance time window, a protection and control strategy is automatically generated based on the comprehensive risk level. The protection and control strategy includes at least one of the following measures: load reduction operation, switching to a backup heat source, adjusting the energy supply path, or migrating the control node. The protection control strategy is executed, and the power supply continuity of the system is continuously monitored during execution. A rate of change limit is imposed on the control quantity, and a protection execution control command is generated. When all risk characterization indicators return to the preset safe range and the stable operation time is not less than the preset recovery time, the protection and control strategy is lifted and the normal scheduling mode is restored.

[0007] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one possible implementation, the preset threshold determination condition corresponding to the load change rate is a determination of high load operation risk, including: First time window Internal load change rate satisfy: ; And the current load rate satisfy: ; Furthermore, the duration for which the above conditions are met continuously is not less than the first duration. At that time, it was determined to be a high-load operation risk; in, For time window The amount of load change within, The first rate of change threshold, The load rate at the current moment. This is the proportional coefficient of the rated load. Equipment rated load, The value range is 1 to 5 min. The value range is 2% to 5% of the rated load per minute. The value range is 0.80 to 0.95. The value range is 30 to 120 seconds.

[0008] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one possible implementation, the preset threshold judgment condition corresponding to the deviation of the supply and return water temperature difference is a judgment of the risk of heat exchange efficiency degradation, including: Second time window Internal, real-time supply and return water temperature difference Calculate using the following formula: ; Deviation of supply and return water temperature satisfy: ; And the duration of continuous satisfaction is not less than the second duration. At that time, it was determined to be a risk of heat exchange efficiency degradation; in, The current water supply temperature. The current return water temperature. For the rated temperature difference, To preset the maximum temperature difference threshold, The value range is 1 to 10 min. The value range is 1–3 ℃. The value range is 60 to 300 s.

[0009] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one possible implementation, the communication status data includes communication delay. Or communication timeout count The preset threshold judgment condition corresponding to the communication delay fluctuation amplitude is used to determine the risk of communication instability, including: In the third time window Within a given context, a communication instability risk is identified if any of the following conditions are met: Condition 1, Standard deviation of communication delay satisfy: ; Condition 2, the number of consecutive communication timeouts is satisfied: ; in, This is the delay fluctuation coefficient. Based on the rated communication period or rated delay, This represents the number of consecutive communication timeouts. To preset the maximum number of timeouts, The value range is 30–180 s. The value range is 0.20 to 0.50. The value ranges from 3 to 10.

[0010] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one possible implementation, the preset threshold determination condition corresponding to the number of start-stop cycles is a determination of the risk of frequent start-stop cycles, including: In the fourth time window Internal statistics on the number of start-stop operations satisfy At that time, it was determined to be a risk of frequent start-stop operations; in, To preset the maximum number of start-stop cycles, The value range is 10–30 min. The value ranges from 3 to 6.

[0011] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one possible implementation, the calculation of the comprehensive risk level based on the generated risk events includes: When the number of risk events is triggered At that time, it was determined to be a mild risk; when At that time, it was determined to be a moderate risk; when At that time, it is judged as a high-risk situation; or, For each type of risk event Assign weights Calculate risk score : ; in, As an indicator function, when a risk event occurs... When triggered =1, otherwise =0; when When it was determined to be a mild risk, When it is determined to be of medium risk, The risk was assessed as severe at that time; among which Take a value of 0.5 to 1.0. Take a value of 1.0 to 2.0. Use 2.0 to 3.0.

[0012] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one possible implementation, the load reduction operation includes proportionally reducing the equipment output load and increasing the output of critical equipment. Limit the amplitude as follows: ; And for any control quantity Apply a rate of change limit: ; in, The load reduction ratio is set at 0.05 to 0.15 for cases of mild risk. For the current moment, control quantity This is the control quantity from the previous sampling time. The sampling period is The maximum allowable rate of change is taken as 10% to 30% / min of the rated setpoint rate of change.

[0013] In a second aspect, embodiments of this application also propose a risk warning and protection system for heating and cooling load systems, comprising: The data acquisition unit is used to collect load rate, supply and return water temperature, start / stop status and communication status data of cold and heat source equipment, valve-controlled terminal equipment and control nodes at a preset sampling period. The indicator calculation unit is used to calculate at least two risk characterization indicators among load change rate, supply and return water temperature difference deviation, communication delay fluctuation amplitude, and number of start-stop times within a preset sliding time window. The risk assessment unit is used to compare each risk characterization indicator with the corresponding preset threshold range, and to determine the corresponding risk type when the indicator exceeds the threshold and the duration meets the condition. The risk grading unit is used to calculate the overall risk level based on the identified risk types, the number of triggers, or their weights. The protection strategy generation unit is used to generate a protection control strategy based on the comprehensive risk level within a preset advance time window. The protection control strategy includes at least one of the following measures: load reduction operation, backup heat source switching, energy supply path adjustment, or control node migration. The protection execution unit is used to execute the protection control strategy, and during execution, to impose a rate-of-change limit on the control quantity to maintain power supply continuity, and to release the protection strategy and restore the normal scheduling mode after the risk is recovered.

[0014] In a third aspect, embodiments of this application also propose a computer device, including a processor, a memory, and a communication interface, characterized in that the memory stores a computer program, the processor executes the computer program to implement the method as described in any of the first aspects, and the communication interface is used for real-time data interaction and control command transmission with the heating and cooling load control node and the execution device.

[0015] In a fourth aspect, embodiments of this application also provide a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the method as described in any of the first aspects.

[0016] The embodiments of this application can achieve the following technical effects: On the one hand, this application continuously statistically analyzes and determines the trends of degradation symptoms such as load rate changes, supply and return water temperature difference deviations, communication delay fluctuations / timeouts, and start-stop frequency within a sliding time window, forming quantifiable risk events and comprehensive risk levels. It also automatically generates and executes proactive protection measures such as load reduction limits, backup resource takeover, power supply path adjustment, and control migration within a preset advance time window.

[0017] On the other hand, this application simultaneously imposes a rate of change constraint on the control quantity during the protection period and automatically releases the strategy according to the stability criterion after the risk is recovered, so that the cooling and heating load system changes from "post-fault recovery" to "pre-fault prevention", effectively reducing the probability of interlocking triggering and equipment shutdown, reducing the number of manual operation and maintenance interventions, and maintaining the continuity of cooling and heating and the stability of terminal comfort under the condition of no shutdown, thereby significantly improving the operational reliability, continuous energy supply capacity and autonomous operation level of the integrated energy station. Attached Figure Description

[0018] The accompanying drawings, which form part of this invention, are used to provide a further understanding of the invention. The illustrative embodiments of the invention and their descriptions are used to explain the invention and do not constitute an improper limitation of the invention.

[0019] In the attached diagram: Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating an operational risk warning and active protection control method for a cooling and heating load system provided in this application embodiment; Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the framework of a cold and hot load system operation risk early warning and active protection control system provided in the embodiments of this application; Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer device provided in an embodiment of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0020] The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described herein can be combined with each other.

[0021] The following detailed description is exemplary and intended to provide further detailed explanation of the invention. Unless otherwise specified, all technical terms used in this invention have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art. The terminology used in this invention is for describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to limit the scope of exemplary embodiments according to the invention.

[0022] The risk warning and active protection method for cooling and heating load systems described in this application embodiment can be executed by a risk warning and active protection system. This risk warning and active protection system can be deployed in the energy management system (EMS), distributed control system (DCS), or dedicated programmable logic controller (PLC) of an integrated energy station, and establish communication connections with central air conditioning units, ground source heat pumps, electric boilers, valve-controlled terminal equipment, and redundant control nodes to achieve functions such as data acquisition, risk identification, and generation and execution of protection strategies.

[0023] Please refer to Figure 1This application provides a method for early warning and active protection control of operational risks in a cooling and heating load system, comprising: Step S10: Collect operating data of each device in the system at a preset sampling period. The operating data includes load rate, water supply temperature, return water temperature, start / stop status and communication status data.

[0024] Step S20: Within a preset sliding time window, statistical analysis and trend calculation are performed on the collected operating data to obtain a set of risk characterization indicators. The set of risk characterization indicators includes at least two of the following: load change rate, deviation of supply and return water temperature difference, communication delay fluctuation amplitude, and number of start-stop cycles.

[0025] Step S30: When any risk characterization indicator meets the corresponding preset threshold judgment condition and the duration is not less than the preset duration, a corresponding risk event is generated, and the comprehensive risk level is calculated based on the generated risk event.

[0026] Step S40: Within a preset advance time window, a protection and control strategy is automatically generated based on the comprehensive risk level. The protection and control strategy includes at least one of the following measures: load reduction operation, switching to a backup heat source, adjusting the energy supply path, or migrating the control node.

[0027] Step S50: Execute the protection control strategy, continuously monitor the power supply continuity of the system during execution, impose a rate of change limit on the control quantity, and generate protection execution control commands.

[0028] Step S60: When each risk characterization indicator recovers to the preset safe range and the stable operation time is not less than the preset recovery time, the protection control strategy is released and the normal scheduling mode is restored.

[0029] In step S10, collecting operational data from each device within the system at a preset sampling period is the fundamental data source for risk warning and proactive protection. The preset sampling period can be set according to the system scale and real-time requirements, generally ranging from 0.5 to 10 seconds, to balance real-time data acquisition with system communication load. The load rate in the operational data reflects the ratio of the device's current output level to its rated capacity, a crucial indicator for measuring the device's operational intensity; the supply water temperature and return water temperature together reflect the heat exchange efficiency of the heat exchange equipment; the start / stop status records the switching between the device's operating and shutdown states; and the communication status data includes communication delay or timeout counts, used to assess the communication reliability of the control link. The above data can be acquired in real-time through DCS analog input cards, digital input cards, and communication interface modules, covering cold and heat source devices, valve-controlled terminal devices, and redundant control nodes.

[0030] In step S20, statistical analysis and trend calculations are performed on the collected data within a preset sliding time window. This is the core processing step in transforming raw operational data into quantifiable risk characterization indicators. The sliding time window ranges from 30 seconds to 30 minutes, and an appropriate time scale can be selected based on the characteristics of different risk types. The load change rate reflects the upward or downward trend of equipment load, the deviation of the supply and return water temperature difference reflects the degree of heat exchange efficiency degradation, the communication delay fluctuation reflects the stability change of the communication link, and the number of start-stop cycles reflects the operational stability of the equipment. By continuously calculating these indicators through a sliding window, the trend changes of equipment during the degradation process can be captured, rather than relying solely on instantaneous threshold judgments, thereby improving the accuracy and foresight of risk identification.

[0031] In step S30, a corresponding risk event is generated when any risk characterization indicator meets the corresponding preset threshold judgment condition and the duration is not less than the preset duration. Introducing the duration condition effectively filters out false alarms caused by instantaneous disturbances or measurement noise, ensuring that a risk event is only generated when the degradation trend persists. After generating a risk event, the comprehensive risk level is calculated based on the number of triggered risk events or weighted scores, achieving a quantitative assessment from single-indicator anomalies to system-level risks. The comprehensive risk level can be divided into mild risk, moderate risk, and severe risk, providing a basis for the subsequent formulation of differentiated protection strategies.

[0032] In step S40, the automatic generation of a protection and control strategy based on the comprehensive risk level within a preset advance time window is a key feature that distinguishes this application from traditional post-fault recovery methods. The advance time window ranges from 1 to 10 minutes, ensuring that the protection strategy can be fully implemented before the risk evolves into an actual fault. The protection and control strategy includes at least one measure among load reduction operation, backup heat source switching, power supply path adjustment, or control node migration. Different strengths or types of protection measures can be combined according to different risk levels to achieve proactive risk reduction rather than passive response.

[0033] In step S50, imposing a rate-of-change constraint on the control quantity during the execution of the protection control strategy is a crucial measure to ensure a smooth transition during the protection process. Unlike emergency shutdown or direct load shedding, this application limits the magnitude of change in the control quantity within adjacent sampling periods by imposing a rate-of-change constraint on the control quantity during load reduction, ensuring smooth adjustment of the power supply output and avoiding system oscillations or secondary risks caused by excessively rapid adjustments. Simultaneously, during the execution of the protection control strategy, the continuity of the system's power supply is continuously monitored to ensure uninterrupted cooling and heating supply to critical user terminals.

[0034] In step S60, when each risk characterization indicator recovers to the preset safe range and the stable operation time is not less than the preset recovery time, the protection control strategy is lifted and the normal scheduling mode is restored. The recovery time ranges from 60 to 600 seconds, used to confirm that the risk has been completely eliminated rather than temporarily mitigated, preventing the protection strategy from being lifted too early and causing the risk to recur. Through the automatic lifting mechanism, the system can promptly restore normal operation after the risk is eliminated, maximizing operational efficiency.

[0035] Thus, this embodiment constructs a control architecture of risk perception, trend analysis, hierarchical judgment, strategy generation, proactive protection, and safe recovery, enabling the cooling and heating load system to shift from post-fault recovery to pre-fault prevention, effectively improving the system's operational reliability and autonomy.

[0036] In some embodiments, the preset threshold determination condition corresponding to the load change rate is a determination of high load operation risk, including: First time window Internal load change rate satisfy: ; And the current load rate satisfy: ; Furthermore, the duration for which the above conditions are met continuously is not less than the first duration. At that time, it was determined to be a high-load operation risk; in, For time window The amount of load change within, The first rate of change threshold, The load rate at the current moment. This is the proportional coefficient of the rated load. Equipment rated load, The value range is 1 to 5 min. The value range is 2% to 5% of the rated load per minute. The value range is 0.80 to 0.95. The value range is 30 to 120 seconds.

[0037] In some embodiments, the preset threshold judgment condition corresponding to the deviation of the supply and return water temperature difference is used to determine the risk of heat exchange efficiency degradation, specifically: Second time window Internal, real-time supply and return water temperature difference Calculate using the following formula: ; Deviation of supply and return water temperature satisfy: ; And the duration of continuous satisfaction is not less than the second duration. At that time, it was determined to be a risk of heat exchange efficiency degradation; in, The current water supply temperature. The current return water temperature. For the rated temperature difference, To preset the maximum temperature difference threshold, The value range is 1 to 10 min. The value range is 1–3 ℃. The value range is 60 to 300 s.

[0038] In some embodiments, the communication status data includes communication delay. Or communication timeout count The preset threshold judgment condition corresponding to the communication delay fluctuation amplitude is used to determine the risk of communication instability, including: In the third time window Within a given context, a communication instability risk is identified if any of the following conditions are met: Condition 1, Standard deviation of communication delay satisfy: ; Condition 2, the number of consecutive communication timeouts is satisfied: ; in, This is the delay fluctuation coefficient. Based on the rated communication period or rated delay, This represents the number of consecutive communication timeouts. To preset the maximum number of timeouts, The value range is 30–180 s. The value range is 0.20 to 0.50. The value ranges from 3 to 10.

[0039] In some embodiments, the preset threshold determination condition corresponding to the number of start-stop cycles is a determination of the risk of frequent start-stop cycles, including: In the fourth time window Internal statistics on the number of start-stop operations satisfy At that time, it was determined to be a risk of frequent start-stop operations; in, To preset the maximum number of start-stop cycles, The value range is 10–30 min. The value ranges from 3 to 6.

[0040] In some embodiments, calculating the comprehensive risk level based on the generated risk events includes: When the number of risk events is triggered At that time, it was determined to be a mild risk; when At that time, it was determined to be a moderate risk; when At that time, it is judged as a high-risk situation; or, For each type of risk event Assign weights Calculate risk score : ; in, As an indicator function, when a risk event occurs... When triggered =1, otherwise =0; when When it was determined to be a mild risk, When it is determined to be of medium risk, The risk was assessed as severe at that time; among which Take a value of 0.5 to 1.0. Take a value of 1.0 to 2.0. Use 2.0 to 3.0.

[0041] In some embodiments, the load reduction operation includes proportionally reducing the equipment output load and reducing the output of critical equipment. Limit the amplitude as follows: ; And for any control quantity Apply a rate of change limit: ; in, The load reduction ratio is set at 0.05 to 0.15 for cases of mild risk. For the current moment, control quantity This is the control quantity from the previous sampling time. The sampling period is The maximum allowable rate of change is taken as 10% to 30% / min of the rated setpoint rate of change.

[0042] Further, see Figure 2 , Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of a control system for early warning and active protection of operational risks in a heating and cooling load system, provided in an embodiment of this application. Specifically, the system includes: The data acquisition unit 210 is used to acquire load rate, supply and return water temperature, start and stop status and communication status data of cold and heat source equipment, valve control terminal equipment and control nodes at a preset sampling period. The indicator calculation unit 220 is used to calculate at least two risk characterization indicators among the load change rate, supply and return water temperature difference deviation, communication delay fluctuation amplitude, and number of start-stop times within a preset sliding time window. The risk determination unit 230 is used to compare each risk characterization indicator with the corresponding preset threshold range, and determine the corresponding risk type when the indicator exceeds the threshold and the duration meets the condition. Risk grading unit 240 is used to calculate the comprehensive risk level based on the identified risk type, the number of triggers, or the weight. The protection strategy generation unit 250 is used to generate a protection control strategy based on the comprehensive risk level within a preset advance time window. The protection control strategy includes at least one of the following measures: load reduction operation, backup heat source switching, energy supply path adjustment, or control node migration. The protection execution unit 260 is used to execute the protection control strategy, and during execution, to impose a rate of change limit on the control quantity to maintain power supply continuity, and to release the protection strategy and restore the normal scheduling mode after the risk is recovered.

[0043] Further, see Figure 3 , Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer device provided in an embodiment of this application. The computer device includes one or more processors 31 and a memory 32. The memory 32 is connected to one or more processors 31, for example, via a bus.

[0044] Processor 31 is configured to support the computer device in executing the methods described in the above method embodiments. Processor 31 may be a central processing unit (CPU), a network processor (NP), a hardware chip, or any combination thereof. The aforementioned hardware chip may be an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a programmable logic device (PLD), or a combination thereof. The aforementioned PLD may be a complex programmable logic device (CPLD), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), a generic array logic (GAL), or any combination thereof.

[0045] Memory 32 is used to store program code, etc. Memory 32 may include volatile memory (VM), such as random access memory (RAM); memory 32 may also include non-volatile memory (NVM), such as read-only memory (ROM), flash memory, hard disk drive (HDD), or solid-state drive (SSD); memory 32 may also include combinations of the above types of memory.

[0046] The memory 32 can be used to store non-volatile software programs, non-volatile computer-executable programs, and modules, such as the program instructions / modules corresponding to the central controller in the embodiments of this application. The processor 31 implements the methods provided in the above embodiments by running the non-volatile software programs, instructions, and modules stored in the memory 32.

[0047] The memory 32 may include a program storage area and a data storage area. The program storage area may store the operating system and applications required for at least one function. These remote memories can be connected to other component modules via a network. Examples of such networks include, but are not limited to, the Internet, corporate intranets, local area networks, mobile communication networks, and combinations thereof.

[0048] One or more modules are stored in memory 32. When executed by one or more processors 31, they perform the manufacturing method in any of the above method embodiments. For example, they perform the method steps described in the above method embodiments to achieve the functions described in the above embodiments.

[0049] This application also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, the computer program including program instructions, which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to perform the method as described in the foregoing embodiments.

[0050] As is known from common technical knowledge, this invention can be implemented through other embodiments that do not depart from its spirit or essential characteristics. Therefore, the disclosed embodiments described above are merely illustrative in all respects and are not the only ones. All modifications within the scope of this invention or its equivalents are included in this invention.

[0051] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0052] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0053] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0054] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0055] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific implementation of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for early warning and active protection control of operational risks in a cooling and heating load system, characterized in that, include: The system collects operating data of each device within the system at a preset sampling period. The operating data includes load rate, water supply temperature, return water temperature, start / stop status, and communication status data. Within a preset sliding time window, the collected operating data is statistically analyzed and trended to obtain a set of risk characterization indicators. The set of risk characterization indicators includes at least two of the following: load change rate, deviation of supply and return water temperature difference, communication delay fluctuation amplitude, and number of start-stop cycles. When any risk characterization indicator meets the corresponding preset threshold judgment condition and the duration is not less than the preset duration, the corresponding risk event is generated, and the comprehensive risk level is calculated based on the generated risk event. Within a preset advance time window, a protection and control strategy is automatically generated based on the comprehensive risk level. The protection and control strategy includes at least one of the following measures: load reduction operation, switching to a backup heat source, adjusting the energy supply path, or migrating the control node. The protection control strategy is executed, and the power supply continuity of the system is continuously monitored during execution. A rate of change limit is imposed on the control quantity, and a protection execution control command is generated. When all risk characterization indicators return to the preset safe range and the stable operation time is not less than the preset recovery time, the protection and control strategy is lifted and the normal scheduling mode is restored.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The preset threshold condition corresponding to the load change rate is used to determine the risk of high load operation, including: First time window Internal load change rate satisfy: ； And the current load rate satisfy: ； Furthermore, the duration for which the above conditions are met continuously is not less than the first duration. At that time, it was determined to be a high-load operation risk; in, For time window The amount of load change within, The first rate of change threshold, The load rate at the current moment. This is the proportional coefficient of the rated load. Equipment rated load, The value range is 1 to 5 min. The value range is 2% to 5% of the rated load per minute. The value range is 0.80 to 0.

95. The value range is 30 to 120 s.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The preset threshold judgment condition corresponding to the deviation of the supply and return water temperature difference is used to determine the risk of heat exchange efficiency degradation, including: Second time window Internal, real-time supply and return water temperature difference Calculate using the following formula: ； Deviation of supply and return water temperature satisfy: ； And the duration of continuous satisfaction is not less than the second duration. At that time, it was determined to be at risk of heat exchange efficiency degradation; in, The current water supply temperature. The current return water temperature. For the rated temperature difference, To preset the maximum temperature difference threshold, The value range is 1 to 10 min. The value range is 1 to 3℃. The value range is 60 to 300 s.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The communication status data includes communication delay. Or communication timeout count The preset threshold judgment condition corresponding to the communication delay fluctuation amplitude is used to determine the risk of communication instability, including: In the third time window Within a given context, a communication instability risk is identified if any of the following conditions are met: Condition 1, Standard deviation of communication delay satisfy: ； Condition 2, the number of consecutive communication timeouts is satisfied: ； in, This is the delay fluctuation coefficient. Based on the rated communication period or rated delay, This represents the number of consecutive communication timeouts. To preset the maximum number of timeouts, The value range is 30–180 s. The value range is 0.20 to 0.

50. The value ranges from 3 to 10.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The preset threshold for determining the number of start-stop cycles is used to determine the risk of frequent start-stop cycles, including: In the fourth time window Internal statistics on the number of start-stop operations satisfy At that time, it was determined to be a risk of frequent start-stop operations; in, To preset the maximum number of start-stop cycles, The value range is 10–30 min. The value ranges from 3 to 6.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The calculation of the comprehensive risk level based on the generated risk events includes: When the number of risk events is triggered At that time, it was determined to be a mild risk; when At that time, it was determined to be a moderate risk; when At that time, it is judged as a high risk; or, For each type of risk event Assign weights Calculate risk score : ； in, As an indicator function, when a risk event occurs... When triggered =1, otherwise =0; when When it was determined to be a mild risk, When it is determined to be of medium risk, The risk was assessed as severe at that time; among which Take a value of 0.5 to 1.

0. Take a value of 1.0 to 2.

0. Use 2.0 to 3.

0.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that, The load reduction operation includes proportionally reducing the equipment output load and reducing the output of critical equipment. Limit the amplitude as follows: ； And for any control quantity Apply a rate of change limit: ； in, The load reduction ratio coefficient is set at 0.05 to 0.15 for cases of mild risk. For the current moment, control quantity This is the control quantity from the previous sampling time. The sampling period is The maximum permissible rate of change is taken as 10% to 30% / min of the rated setpoint rate of change.

8. A risk early warning and protection system for a heating and cooling load system, characterized in that, include: The data acquisition unit is used to collect load rate, supply and return water temperature, start / stop status and communication status data of cold and heat source equipment, valve-controlled terminal equipment and control nodes at a preset sampling period. The indicator calculation unit is used to calculate at least two risk characterization indicators among load change rate, supply and return water temperature difference deviation, communication delay fluctuation amplitude, and number of start-stop times within a preset sliding time window. The risk assessment unit is used to compare each risk characterization indicator with the corresponding preset threshold range, and to determine the corresponding risk type when the indicator exceeds the threshold and the duration meets the condition. The risk grading unit is used to calculate the overall risk level based on the identified risk types, the number of triggers, or their weights. The protection strategy generation unit is used to generate a protection control strategy based on the comprehensive risk level within a preset advance time window. The protection control strategy includes at least one of the following measures: load reduction operation, backup heat source switching, energy supply path adjustment, or control node migration. The protection execution unit is used to execute the protection control strategy, and during execution, to impose a rate-of-change limit on the control quantity to maintain power supply continuity, and to release the protection strategy and restore the normal scheduling mode after the risk is recovered.

9. A computer device, comprising a processor, a memory, and a communication interface, characterized in that, The memory stores a computer program, and when the processor executes the computer program, it implements the method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7. The communication interface is used for real-time data interaction and control command transmission with the cold and heat load control node and the execution device.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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