A gas emission prediction method and system based on disturbance propagation

Abstract

The embodiment of the application discloses a gas emission prediction method and system based on disturbance propagation, and relates to the technical field of coal mine gas monitoring and data processing. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining the gas extraction flow of a plurality of gas extraction units in a target area, and determining the corresponding gas sources of the gas extraction units; determining a first disturbance unit and a second disturbance unit from the gas extraction units, so that the gas extraction flow of the first disturbance unit increases and the gas extraction flow of the second disturbance unit decreases; obtaining the gas flow changes of other gas sources except the corresponding gas sources of the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit after the disturbance, and determining abnormal response quantities exceeding the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance; determining the abnormal response propagation range according to the occurrence position and the chronological relationship of the abnormal response quantities among different gas sources; determining the gas emission prediction grade of the target area, and generating a gas emission prediction result. The application improves the pertinence, interpretability and reliability of gas emission prediction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of coal mine gas monitoring and data processing technology, and in particular to a method and system for predicting gas outbursts based on disturbance propagation. Background Technology

[0002] In the process of coal mine gas drainage, it is usually necessary to continuously monitor the gas drainage flow rate corresponding to different coal seams, drilling sites, boreholes, or drainage branches, and evaluate the regional gas control effect in combination with gas concentration, pressure, temperature, and coal seam gas occurrence. With the development of drainage metering technology, it is now possible to monitor the gas drainage parameters of main pipes, branch pipes, and single boreholes online, and to analyze the drainage effect according to the working face, evaluation unit, or different gas sources.

[0003] Existing gas outburst prediction methods typically determine the future gas outburst status based on the magnitude or trend of parameters such as current gas concentration, gas drainage flow rate, pressure, and mining progress. For example, when the gas flow rate continuously increases or the gas concentration exceeds a certain threshold, the gas outburst risk level is raised. Some methods can also establish a mapping relationship between multiple monitoring parameters and gas outburst volume using machine learning.

[0004] However, there may be hidden migration connections between different gas sources within a gas drainage area. When the drainage status of a certain drainage location changes, its impact may be transmitted to other gas sources through coal seam fractures or gas migration channels. Predicting gas changes solely based on variations in the parameters of each gas source under natural operating conditions makes it difficult to distinguish whether a particular gas change is a localized random fluctuation or a sustained response resulting from gas redistribution within the area, and it is also difficult to detect potential anomalies in areas where no significant increase in gas outburst has yet occurred.

[0005] Therefore, it is necessary to provide a method that can actively generate controlled disturbances and predict the gas outburst state based on the abnormal propagation response of the disturbances between different gas sources. Summary of the Invention

[0006] This application provides a gas outburst prediction method and system based on disturbance propagation, which improves the pertinence, interpretability and reliability of gas outburst prediction.

[0007] This application provides the following solution:

[0008] According to a first aspect, a gas outburst prediction method based on disturbance propagation is provided, comprising: acquiring the gas extraction flow rate of multiple gas extraction units in a target area and determining the gas source corresponding to each gas extraction unit; identifying a first disturbance unit and a second disturbance unit from the gas extraction units, adjusting the corresponding extraction valves or extraction negative pressure to increase the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit and decrease the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit, and the difference between the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit is within a preset fluctuation range; acquiring the gas flow rate changes of other gas sources besides the gas sources corresponding to the first and second disturbance units after the disturbance, and determining the abnormal response quantity that exceeds the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance; determining the abnormal response propagation range based on the occurrence position and sequence relationship of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources; determining the gas outburst prediction level of the target area based on the abnormal response propagation range and the abnormal response quantity corresponding to each gas source, and generating a gas outburst prediction result.

[0009] According to one achievable method in the embodiments of this application, determining the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit includes: selecting two gas extraction units with stable flow rates from gas extraction units corresponding to different gas sources, and using them as the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit, respectively.

[0010] According to one achievable method in an embodiment of this application, adjusting the corresponding extraction valve or extraction negative pressure includes: determining a target flow change based on the adjustable flow range of the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit; dividing the target flow change into multiple continuous adjustment amounts; gradually increasing the gas extraction flow of the first disturbance unit and gradually decreasing the gas extraction flow of the second disturbance unit according to each continuous adjustment amount; after each adjustment, determining the flow increase of the first disturbance unit relative to the gas extraction flow before disturbance and the flow decrease of the second disturbance unit relative to the gas extraction flow before disturbance; when the difference between the flow increase and the flow decrease exceeds the preset fluctuation range, adjusting the first disturbance unit or the second disturbance unit according to the deviation direction of the difference; when either disturbance unit reaches the corresponding adjustable flow boundary and the difference still exceeds the preset fluctuation range, adjusting the gas extraction flow of the other disturbance unit until the difference enters the preset fluctuation range, or canceling the current continuous adjustment amount.

[0011] According to one achievable method in the embodiments of this application, determining the abnormal response quantity that exceeds the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance includes: determining the normal fluctuation range corresponding to each gas source based on the gas extraction flow rate of multiple consecutive monitoring cycles before the disturbance; when the gas extraction flow rate of the gas source after the disturbance exceeds the corresponding normal fluctuation range, the flow rate change exceeding the normal fluctuation range is determined as the abnormal response quantity.

[0012] According to one achievable method in this application embodiment, determining the abnormal response propagation range based on the occurrence position and sequential relationship of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources includes: recording the response time of the first occurrence of the abnormal response quantity of each gas source, and sorting the corresponding gas sources according to the response time; determining the spatial positional relationship between two adjacent gas sources in the sorting; when a gas source ranked later in the sorting is spatially adjacent to a gas source ranked earlier in the sorting, and the time interval between their response times does not exceed a preset propagation time interval, establishing an abnormal response propagation relationship between the two gas sources; determining multiple gas sources that have continuously established an abnormal response propagation relationship as the same abnormal response propagation chain, and determining the combined range of the areas where each gas source in the abnormal response propagation chain is located as the abnormal response propagation range.

[0013] According to one achievable method in this application embodiment, determining the gas outburst prediction level of the target area based on the abnormal response propagation range and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source includes: determining the absolute value of the difference between the flow increase of the first disturbance unit and the flow decrease of the second disturbance unit as the disturbance residual; accumulating the abnormal response amounts corresponding to each gas source in the abnormal response propagation chain, and when the accumulation result is greater than the disturbance residual, determining the difference between the two as the net escape response amount; determining the number of gas sources included in the abnormal response propagation range; determining the response level based on the net escape response amount, determining the propagation level based on the number of gas sources, and determining the corresponding gas outburst prediction level based on the response level and the propagation level.

[0014] According to one achievable method in the embodiments of this application, before generating the gas outburst prediction result, the method further includes: after the gas extraction flow of the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit recovers to the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance, applying a reverse disturbance opposite to the direction of the previous disturbance to the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit.

[0015] After the reverse disturbance, the gas extraction flow rate of each gas source is obtained, and its increase or decrease state relative to the baseline gas extraction flow rate before the disturbance is determined. Gas sources that show abnormal response in both the previous disturbance and the reverse disturbance are identified. When the increase or decrease state of the identified gas source is the same in the two disturbances, the corresponding gas source is identified as an irreversible response gas source. The gas outburst prediction level of the target area is improved based on the irreversible response gas source.

[0016] According to one achievable method in this application embodiment, the method further includes: keeping the first disturbance unit unchanged, selecting a third disturbance unit corresponding to different gas sources from the remaining gas extraction units, and replacing the second disturbance unit with the third disturbance unit to re-perform the disturbance; obtaining the response time of the abnormal response amount of each gas source after the re-disturbance, and determining the response sequence of each gas source according to the response time; when the irreversible response gas source exhibits an abnormal response amount again, and its response sequence is not later than the response sequence in the previous disturbance, the corresponding gas source is determined as a continuously escaping gas source; and increasing the gas outburst prediction level of the target area according to the continuously escaping gas source.

[0017] According to one achievable method in this application embodiment, the method further includes: obtaining the abnormal response propagation range, abnormal response amount, and actual gas emission level after the disturbance corresponding to multiple disturbances to form a disturbance propagation sample; clustering each disturbance propagation sample according to the abnormal response propagation range and abnormal response amount to obtain multiple disturbance propagation state categories; and correcting the gas emission prediction result according to the disturbance propagation state category to which the current disturbance belongs and the actual gas emission level corresponding to that category.

[0018] According to the second aspect, a gas outburst prediction system based on disturbance propagation is provided, comprising: a data acquisition module, used to acquire the gas extraction flow rate of multiple gas extraction units in a target area and determine the gas source corresponding to each gas extraction unit; and a disturbance control module, used to determine a first disturbance unit and a second disturbance unit from the gas extraction units, and adjust the corresponding extraction valves or extraction negative pressure to increase the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit and decrease the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit, wherein the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit are within a certain range. The difference is within a preset fluctuation range; the abnormal response determination module is used to obtain the gas flow changes of other gas sources besides the gas sources corresponding to the first and second disturbance units after the disturbance, and determine the abnormal response amount that exceeds the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance; the propagation analysis module is used to determine the propagation range of the abnormal response based on the occurrence position and sequence relationship of the abnormal response amount among different gas sources; the prediction module is used to determine the gas outburst prediction level of the target area based on the propagation range of the abnormal response and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source, and generate the gas outburst prediction result.

[0019] According to the specific embodiments provided in this application, the following technical effects are disclosed:

[0020] This application constructs a controlled disturbance between two different gas extraction units, where the increase and decrease in flow rate essentially cancel each other out, thus maintaining a relatively stable overall extraction flow rate in the target area and reducing the interference of changes in overall extraction conditions on gas response assessment. Based on this, it further extracts abnormal responses from other gas sources that exceed the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance, and determines the propagation range by combining the location and sequence of these abnormal responses among different gas sources. This approach better highlights potential gas migration connections and localized abnormal release states. By comprehensively considering the propagation range and magnitude of abnormal responses to determine the gas outburst prediction level, it can obtain regional abnormal change trends before significant gas outbursts occur, improving the specificity, interpretability, and reliability of gas outburst prediction.

[0021] Of course, any product implementing this application does not necessarily need to achieve all of the advantages described above at the same time. Attached Figure Description

[0022] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application or the prior art, the drawings used in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0023] Figure 1 A flowchart of the gas outburst prediction method based on disturbance propagation provided in the embodiments of this application;

[0024] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram showing the correspondence between a gas extraction unit and a gas source provided in an embodiment of this application.

[0025] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the abnormal response propagation chain and the abnormal response propagation range provided in the embodiments of this application;

[0026] Figure 4 A structural block diagram of a gas outburst prediction system based on disturbance propagation provided in an embodiment of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0027] The technical solutions of the embodiments of this application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of this application, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of this application are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0028] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating the gas outburst prediction method based on disturbance propagation provided in this application embodiment. Figure 1 As shown, the method may include the following steps:

[0029] Step 101: Obtain the gas extraction flow rate of multiple gas extraction units in the target area, and determine the gas source corresponding to each gas extraction unit.

[0030] Step 102: Identify the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit from the gas extraction unit, and adjust the corresponding extraction valves or extraction negative pressure to increase the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit and decrease the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit, and the difference between the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit is within a preset fluctuation range.

[0031] Step 103: Obtain the gas flow changes of other gas sources besides the gas sources corresponding to the first and second disturbance units after the disturbance, and determine the abnormal response quantities that exceed the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance.

[0032] Step 104: Determine the propagation range of the abnormal response based on the location and sequence of occurrence of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources.

[0033] Step 105: Based on the propagation range of the abnormal response and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source, determine the gas outburst prediction level of the target area and generate the gas outburst prediction result.

[0034] As can be seen from the above process, this application constructs a controlled disturbance between two different gas extraction units, where the increase and decrease in flow rate essentially cancel each other out, thereby maintaining the overall extraction flow rate in the target area relatively stable and reducing the interference of changes in the overall extraction conditions on the judgment of gas response. Based on this, it further extracts abnormal responses from other gas sources that exceed the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance, and determines the propagation range by combining the location and sequence of the abnormal responses among different gas sources. This further highlights potential gas migration connections and local abnormal release states. By comprehensively determining the gas outburst prediction level by considering the propagation range and magnitude of abnormal responses, it is possible to obtain regional abnormal change trends before a significant gas outburst occurs, improving the pertinence, interpretability, and reliability of gas outburst prediction.

[0035] The following describes in detail each step of the above process and the effects that can be produced, with reference to the embodiments.

[0036] Step 101 specifically involves: obtaining the gas extraction flow rate of multiple gas extraction units in the target area, and determining the gas source corresponding to each gas extraction unit.

[0037] The target area can be determined based on the actual gas control scope. For example, it could be a longwall face, a coal roadway strip, a tunneling face, a drilling control area, or a multi-coal seam joint extraction area.

[0038] A gas drainage unit is a basic monitoring object that can obtain relatively independent gas drainage flow rates. In practice, it can be divided according to the existing mine drainage network and metering device layout. For example, a single drainage borehole can be considered a gas drainage unit, or a group of boreholes connected to the same branch pipe and having uniform metering conditions can be divided into a gas drainage unit. In multi-level drainage networks, gas drainage units can also be set up according to the control range corresponding to a single borehole, branch pipe, or local manifold.

[0039] For each gas extraction unit, obtain its corresponding gas extraction flow rate. Figure 2 This diagram illustrates the correspondence between the gas extraction unit and the gas source provided in this embodiment. The gas extraction flow rate can be directly obtained from the instantaneous flow rate output by the corresponding metering device, or it can be based on a monitoring sequence formed from flow rate data at multiple consecutive sampling times. When it is necessary to determine whether the flow rate is stable or whether an abnormal response has occurred, the flow rate changes within the continuous monitoring period can be used for judgment. To reduce the impact of instantaneous fluctuations in the sensor on the results, several consecutive sampled values ​​can be averaged, and the processed flow rate value can be used as the gas extraction flow rate for the corresponding monitoring period.

[0040] The gas source corresponding to each gas drainage unit is used to characterize the main source location of the gas extracted by that unit. The gas source is not limited to a single physical point, but can represent a gas-bearing area with a clear source attribute based on the actual coal seam structure and drainage layout. For example, under the condition of joint drainage of multiple coal seams, different coal seams can be identified as different gas sources. When the first group of boreholes mainly controls the first coal seam and the second group of boreholes mainly controls the second coal seam, the first and second coal seams can be identified as the gas sources of the corresponding gas drainage units, respectively.

[0041] Within the same coal seam, gas sources can be further subdivided based on their spatial control range. For example, if multiple drilling sites are located on the same working face, and each site controls a different spatial area, these areas can be identified as different gas sources based on the borehole termination location, borehole coverage area, and evaluation unit boundaries. Similarly, if the same coal seam is divided into multiple evaluation units along the working face's advance direction, the gas-bearing area corresponding to each evaluation unit can be considered a gas source. Thus, gas sources can reflect both the differences in gas sources between different coal seams and the differences in gas sources between different spatial areas within the same coal seam.

[0042] When determining the correspondence between gas drainage units and gas sources, information such as borehole number, borehole end stratum, borehole spatial coordinates, drilling site, drainage branch, and corresponding evaluation unit can be retrieved. If all boreholes in a gas drainage unit primarily enter the same coal seam or the same evaluation area, that coal seam or evaluation area can be directly identified as the corresponding gas source. For drainage units involving multiple coal seams, the main gas source can be determined based on existing source measurement results. Alternatively, the drainage unit can be further subdivided until each drainage unit participating in subsequent disturbance analysis corresponds to a specific gas source.

[0043] Through the above processing, a correspondence can be established between "gas drainage unit - gas source - gas drainage flow rate". For example, gas drainage unit A corresponds to the gas source of the first coal seam and has a current gas drainage flow rate QA; gas drainage unit B corresponds to the gas source of the second coal seam and has a current gas drainage flow rate QB; and gas drainage unit C corresponds to the gas source of the evaluation area in the middle of the working face and has a current gas drainage flow rate QC. Subsequently, when selecting the first and second disturbance units, two drainage units corresponding to different gas sources can be selected first. After applying flow rate offset disturbance, it is also possible to determine from which gas source the abnormal response begins and how it propagates to other gas sources based on the gas sources corresponding to other drainage units, providing a basis for determining the propagation range of the abnormal response and the predicted level of gas outburst.

[0044] Step 102 specifically involves: identifying the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit from the gas extraction unit, adjusting the corresponding extraction valves or extraction negative pressure to increase the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit and decrease the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit, and ensuring that the difference between the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit is within a preset fluctuation range.

[0045] By increasing the drainage flow rate of one gas drainage unit while decreasing the drainage flow rate of another, it is possible to observe whether other gas sources still produce responses exceeding the normal fluctuation range, while minimizing the impact of changes in overall drainage conditions. Therefore, subsequent detected abnormal responses can better reflect the potential gas migration connections between different gas sources, rather than simply being caused by an overall increase or decrease in the overall drainage capacity of the entire drainage system.

[0046] When determining the first and second disturbance units, the gas extraction flow rate of each gas extraction unit can be obtained first, over several consecutive monitoring periods before the disturbance. The flow rate differences between monitoring periods can then be used to determine whether the corresponding gas extraction unit is in a stable flow state. For example, the difference between the maximum and minimum flow rates over several consecutive monitoring periods can be calculated. If this difference does not exceed a preset stable fluctuation value, the corresponding gas extraction unit is considered to be in a stable flow state. Alternatively, the stable state can be determined based on the deviation of each monitored flow rate from the average flow rate. Selecting gas extraction units with stable flow rates avoids involving extraction units that already exhibit significant flow fluctuations during the disturbance, thereby reducing the interference of changes in the original operating conditions on subsequent disturbance response judgments.

[0047] The first and second disturbance units preferably correspond to different gas sources. For example, in a multi-coal-seam joint drainage scenario, gas drainage units can be selected from those corresponding to different coal seams; similarly, when the same coal seam is divided into multiple independent evaluation areas, gas drainage units corresponding to different evaluation areas can also be selected. Using two drainage units corresponding to different gas sources allows the subsequent flow increase / decrease disturbances to act on different gas source areas, thus facilitating observation of whether the disturbances are transmitted to other gas sources through gas migration connections within the coal body.

[0048] Specifically, the gas extraction flow rate of each gas extraction unit within the target area can be obtained for multiple consecutive monitoring periods before the disturbance, and the flow rate fluctuation of each gas extraction unit during these consecutive monitoring periods can be determined. The flow rate fluctuation can be represented by the difference between the maximum and minimum gas extraction flow rates during these consecutive monitoring periods, or by the deviation of the gas extraction flow rate in each monitoring period from the corresponding average flow rate. When the flow rate fluctuation does not exceed a preset stable fluctuation value, the corresponding gas extraction unit is identified as a stable candidate unit. This excludes gas extraction units that already exhibited significant flow rate fluctuations before the disturbance was implemented, avoiding the misinterpretation of existing flow rate changes as responses to subsequent controlled disturbances.

[0049] After obtaining multiple stable candidate units, they are grouped according to the gas source corresponding to each stable candidate unit. Multiple stable candidate units corresponding to the same gas source are assigned to the same candidate group, and candidate disturbance unit combinations are established between stable candidate units belonging to different candidate groups. That is, the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit are not selected simultaneously from two gas extraction units corresponding to the same gas source, but rather correspond to different gas sources. The gas source can be determined according to the coal seam, drilling site control area, evaluation unit, or borehole control range, so that the two disturbance units are formed at different gas source locations, providing a spatial basis for subsequent judgment on whether the disturbance propagates to other gas sources.

[0050] Furthermore, for each stable candidate unit, the adjustable flow range of the stable candidate unit is determined based on its current gas extraction flow rate and the allowable operating conditions of the corresponding extraction valve, extraction negative pressure, and extraction pipeline. For a stable candidate unit to be used as the first disturbance unit, the difference between its current gas extraction flow rate and the upper limit of the adjustable flow range is determined, and this difference is used as the flow margin that can be increased; for a stable candidate unit to be used as the second disturbance unit, the difference between its current gas extraction flow rate and the lower limit of the adjustable flow range is determined, and this difference is used as the flow margin that can be decreased. A candidate combination is retained only when one stable candidate unit in the corresponding candidate combination has room for flow increase and the other stable candidate unit has room for flow decrease.

[0051] For the retained candidate disturbance unit combinations, the increaseable flow margin of the first candidate unit and the decreaseable flow margin of the second candidate unit can be further compared, and the smaller of the two values ​​is determined as the common adjustable flow of the candidate disturbance unit combination. The common adjustable flow represents the flow rate that can be increased by one gas extraction unit and correspondingly decreased by the other gas extraction unit, within the allowable operating range of each of the two gas extraction units. When the common adjustable flow reaches the target flow rate change required to implement controlled disturbance, the corresponding candidate combination is determined as a usable disturbance unit combination; when the common adjustable flow is insufficient, the candidate combination is not used for this disturbance.

[0052] When multiple available disturbance unit combinations exist, the two gas extraction units with smaller pre-disturbance flow fluctuations can be preferentially selected as the first and second disturbance units; alternatively, a candidate combination with a larger common adjustable flow rate can be preferred. Specifically, after determining a candidate combination, the gas extraction unit that performs flow increase regulation is designated as the first disturbance unit, and the gas extraction unit that performs flow decrease regulation is designated as the second disturbance unit. Thus, the determination of the first and second disturbance units simultaneously satisfies three conditions: stable pre-disturbance flow, different corresponding gas sources, and the availability of the required flow increase and decrease regulation space, rather than arbitrarily selecting two units from multiple gas extraction units.

[0053] For example, the target area includes gas drainage units A, B, C, and D, which correspond to gas sources S1, S2, S3, and S4, respectively. Based on the gas drainage flow rates of the ten consecutive monitoring cycles before the disturbance, the difference between the maximum and minimum flow rates of gas drainage units A, B, and C does not exceed 0.05 cubic meters per minute, while the corresponding difference for gas drainage unit D is 0.18 cubic meters per minute, exceeding the preset stable fluctuation value of 0.10 cubic meters per minute. Therefore, gas drainage unit D is excluded first. Further determine the adjustable flow ranges of A, B, and C. For example, A's current flow is 2.0 cubic meters per minute, and it is allowed to increase to 2.8 cubic meters per minute, with an increase margin of 0.8 cubic meters per minute; B's current flow is 2.5 cubic meters per minute, and it is allowed to decrease to 1.9 cubic meters per minute, with a decrease margin of 0.6 cubic meters per minute; C, although in a stable state, has a decrease margin of only 0.2 cubic meters per minute. When the target flow change required for this disturbance is 0.5 cubic meters per minute, the common adjustable flow between A and B is 0.6 cubic meters per minute, which meets the requirements of this disturbance. Therefore, A is designated as the first disturbance unit, and B is designated as the second disturbance unit.

[0054] After identifying two disturbance units, the target flow rate change is determined based on the safe adjustable flow range of each of the first and second disturbance units. The adjustable flow range can be determined based on the current gas extraction flow rate, the allowable adjustment range of the extraction valves, the allowable variation range of the extraction negative pressure, and the operating conditions of the extraction pipeline. The first disturbance unit needs to have a flow rate increase margin of at least the target flow rate change, and the second disturbance unit needs to have a flow rate decrease margin of at least the target flow rate change. Therefore, the target flow rate change should simultaneously fall within the range where both disturbance units can complete flow rate adjustment in the corresponding direction.

[0055] For example, the current gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit is 2.0 cubic meters per minute, which can be increased to 2.8 cubic meters per minute under permissible operating conditions, with a maximum flow rate increase of 0.8 cubic meters per minute; the current gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit is 2.5 cubic meters per minute, which can be reduced to 1.9 cubic meters per minute under permissible operating conditions, with a maximum flow rate decrease of 0.6 cubic meters per minute. In this case, the target flow rate change can be determined within a range not exceeding 0.6 cubic meters per minute, for example, setting the target flow rate change to 0.5 cubic meters per minute.

[0056] After determining the target flow rate change, instead of directly adjusting both disturbance units to the target state all at once, the target flow rate change is divided into multiple continuous adjustment quantities. These continuous adjustment quantities represent the increase or decrease in flow rate for each adjustment. For example, if the target flow rate change is 0.6 cubic meters per minute, it can be divided into three continuous adjustment quantities of 0.2 cubic meters per minute each. Adjusting step by step according to these continuous adjustment quantities avoids significant transient fluctuations in the extraction pipeline caused by large changes in valves or negative pressure at once. It also facilitates comparison and correction of the actual flow rate changes generated by the two disturbance units at each adjustment stage.

[0057] In specific adjustments, the effective extraction capacity of the corresponding extraction valve of the first disturbance unit can be increased, or the corresponding extraction negative pressure can be raised, so that the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit gradually increases according to the continuous adjustment amount. Simultaneously, the second disturbance unit is adjusted in the opposite direction, so that its gas extraction flow rate gradually decreases according to the corresponding continuous adjustment amount. The synchronous adjustment referred to here does not require the two valves to perform mechanical actions of the same amplitude at exactly the same instant, but rather requires that the increase and decrease operations be completed separately within the same adjustment phase, and that the two flow rate changes reach a predetermined state of cancellation before entering the next adjustment phase.

[0058] After each adjustment, the current gas extraction flow rate of the first and second disturbance units is acquired and compared with the corresponding gas extraction flow rate before the disturbance began. The portion of the current flow rate of the first disturbance unit that is higher than the flow rate before the disturbance is determined as the flow increase, and the portion of the flow rate of the second disturbance unit that is higher than the current flow rate before the disturbance is determined as the flow decrease. Therefore, both flow rate changes can be represented by positive values, allowing for direct comparison of their magnitudes.

[0059] The preset fluctuation range is used to determine whether the increase in flow rate from the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate from the second disturbance unit have reached a state of basic offsetting. For example, the preset fluctuation range can be set to no more than 0.05 cubic meters per minute. When the first disturbance unit increases by 0.20 cubic meters per minute, while the second disturbance unit decreases by 0.18 cubic meters per minute, the difference is 0.02 cubic meters per minute, which is within the preset fluctuation range, and the current adjustment stage can be considered to meet the flow offsetting requirement. When the first disturbance unit increases by 0.20 cubic meters per minute, while the second disturbance unit only decreases by 0.12 cubic meters per minute, the difference is 0.08 cubic meters per minute, which exceeds the preset fluctuation range. In this case, the next stage of adjustment is not immediately carried out, but the extraction valve or extraction negative pressure corresponding to the second disturbance unit is adjusted to make its flow rate decrease closer to the flow rate increase of the first disturbance unit.

[0060] Through the aforementioned step-by-step adjustments and real-time corrections, the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit can be gradually increased, while the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit can be gradually decreased, ensuring that the two changes remain essentially offset. This disturbance does not simply increase or decrease the overall extraction capacity of the target area, but rather redistributes the extraction activity among different gas sources with relatively small changes in overall flow rate. If other gas sources not directly involved in the adjustment still exhibit significant changes in gas flow rate, this provides more targeted disturbance conditions for subsequent identification of abnormal response quantities and the propagation range of abnormal responses.

[0061] Step 103 specifically involves: obtaining the gas flow changes of other gas sources besides the gas sources corresponding to the first and second disturbance units after the disturbance, and determining the abnormal response quantities that exceed the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance.

[0062] After completing the flow offset adjustment of the first and second disturbance units, it is determined whether other gas sources not directly involved in the disturbance are affected by the disturbance propagation. Since the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit is actively increased and the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit is actively decreased, the flow rate changes of these two gas sources are a direct result of artificial adjustment and cannot be directly used as evidence of outward disturbance propagation. Based on this, this application excludes the gas sources corresponding to the first and second disturbance units and only continuously monitors the gas extraction flow rate of other gas sources. When other gas sources experience significant flow rate changes without direct adjustment of extraction valves or extraction negative pressure, such changes can be used as the basis for determining whether the disturbance propagates from the direct disturbance location to peripheral gas sources.

[0063] In practice, gas drainage flow rates for multiple monitoring cycles of other gas sources can be continuously acquired before the disturbance is implemented. This data can then be used to determine the natural fluctuation range that the corresponding gas source may generate under normal drainage conditions. Using the data before the disturbance as a benchmark ensures that the normal fluctuation range is adapted to the current coal seam gas occurrence state, the current drainage negative pressure, and the current borehole drainage state, avoiding the inconsistency in judgment between different gas sources caused by directly using a fixed flow rate threshold. For example, the basic gas drainage flow rates of different gas sources within the same target area may vary significantly; therefore, each gas source can establish its own corresponding normal fluctuation range.

[0064] The continuous monitoring cycles can be set according to the gas drainage flow rate collection frequency. For example, flow rate data from ten, twenty, or a certain time period before the disturbance can be used. To ensure the representativeness of the normal fluctuation range, it is preferable to select a time period in which the gas drainage status remains stable, and there are no valve adjustments, start-ups or shutdowns of the drainage equipment, or significant changes in mining conditions. When there is obvious abnormal data during the monitoring period, the corresponding abnormal monitoring cycle can be excluded first, and then the normal fluctuation range can be determined based on the remaining flow rate data.

[0065] The normal fluctuation range can be directly determined based on the maximum and minimum flow rates obtained from continuous monitoring before the disturbance. For example, if the gas extraction flow rate of a gas source consistently falls between 1.85 cubic meters per minute and 2.00 cubic meters per minute over multiple monitoring cycles before the disturbance, this range can be taken as the normal fluctuation range for the corresponding gas source. To allow for natural measurement errors and minor changes in operating conditions, a preset flow margin can be added outward from the aforementioned maximum and minimum values. Alternatively, the average value of the continuously monitored flow rates before the disturbance can be calculated, and the upper and lower limits of normal fluctuation can be determined based on the normal deviation of each monitored value from the average value. The specific methods described above can be selected based on the monitoring stability of different mines. This application primarily uses continuous monitoring data before the disturbance to form a judgment benchmark corresponding to the operating status of each gas source.

[0066] After the first and second disturbance units perform flow regulation, they continue to acquire the gas extraction flow rates of other gas sources according to the same monitoring cycle, and compare each monitored value after disturbance with the normal fluctuation range of the corresponding gas source. If the flow rate of a certain gas source remains within the normal fluctuation range, it indicates that its current change has not exceeded the allowable fluctuation level of the gas source under normal extraction conditions, and it can be temporarily not considered to have generated an abnormal response.

[0067] When the gas extraction flow rate after a disturbance of a gas source exceeds the upper limit of the normal fluctuation range or falls below the lower limit of the normal fluctuation range, the corresponding gas source is considered to have generated a disturbance response exceeding its normal variation capacity. In this case, the portion of the gas extraction flow rate exceeding the normal fluctuation boundary can be identified as the abnormal response quantity. That is to say, the abnormal response quantity is not the entire difference between the gas extraction flow rate after the disturbance and a single flow rate value before the disturbance, but only the portion exceeding the normal fluctuation range, thereby excluding the normal flow rate fluctuations that already existed before the disturbance from the abnormal response quantity.

[0068] For example, the normal fluctuation range of a gas source before disturbance is 1.80 cubic meters per minute to 2.00 cubic meters per minute. After the disturbance, the gas extraction flow rate of the gas source increases to 2.14 cubic meters per minute. The portion exceeding the upper limit of the normal fluctuation is 0.14 cubic meters per minute, which can be identified as the abnormal response quantity. If the gas extraction flow rate decreases to 1.68 cubic meters per minute after the disturbance, it is below the lower limit of the normal fluctuation by 0.12 cubic meters per minute, and this 0.12 cubic meters per minute can be identified as the abnormal response quantity. Therefore, regardless of whether the abnormality manifests as an increase or decrease in flow rate, the abnormal response quantity can be represented by a positive value to indicate the degree of abnormality.

[0069] While determining the abnormal response quantity, the response state of that abnormal response quantity can also be recorded. When the gas extraction flow rate after the disturbance is higher than the upper limit of normal fluctuation, it is recorded as an increasing state; when the gas extraction flow rate after the disturbance is lower than the lower limit of normal fluctuation, it is recorded as a decreasing state. The abnormal response quantity is used to indicate the degree of abnormality, and the increasing or decreasing state is used to indicate the direction of response. Recording the two separately can avoid mutual cancellation due to different positive and negative directions when the abnormal response quantities of multiple gas sources are subsequently accumulated.

[0070] Furthermore, the same gas source may exceed the normal fluctuation range for multiple consecutive monitoring cycles after a disturbance. In this case, the moment it first exceeds the normal fluctuation range can be recorded as the response moment of the gas source. The maximum excess amount during the continuous anomaly period can be selected as the abnormal response amount of the corresponding gas source. Alternatively, the average or cumulative value of the continuous abnormal response amounts can be used to characterize the corresponding anomaly degree. Preferably, the moment of the first response is used to characterize the time position of the disturbance reaching the gas source, and the maximum excess amount or the average excess amount during the stable anomaly phase is used to characterize the intensity of the abnormal response, thereby providing a data basis for determining the subsequent abnormal response propagation relationship and the gas outburst prediction level.

[0071] Through the above processing, this application effectively establishes a judgment mechanism between "local man-made disturbances and indirect peripheral responses." After the flow changes of the first and second disturbance units essentially cancel each other out, if other gas sources still exhibit flow changes exceeding their normal fluctuation range, these changes are difficult to simply attribute to an increase or decrease in the overall extraction flow of the target area. They are more suitable as response information indicating that the disturbance is propagating outward through potential migration links between different gas sources. Subsequently, the propagation chain and range of the abnormal response can be further determined based on the location and timing of these abnormal responses, as well as the relationship between adjacent gas sources.

[0072] Step 104 specifically involves determining the propagation range of the abnormal response based on the location and sequence of occurrence of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources.

[0073] The abnormal responses generated by each of the aforementioned gas sources are further transformed from isolated abnormal flow rate changes into an abnormal response propagation relationship with temporal and spatial continuity. Since different gas sources may generate abnormal responses due to factors such as equipment fluctuations and changes in local extraction status, the occurrence of an abnormal response from a single gas source cannot directly indicate that the anomaly was caused by controlled disturbance propagation formed by the first and second disturbance units. Therefore, this application considers both the chronological order of abnormal responses and the spatial relationship between corresponding gas sources, establishing an abnormal response propagation relationship only when both temporal and spatial continuity conditions are met, thereby improving the reliability of disturbance propagation process identification.

[0074] In practice, after the flow regulation of the first and second disturbance units is completed, the gas extraction flow rates of other gas sources besides those corresponding to the two disturbance units are continuously acquired. When the gas extraction flow rate of a certain gas source first exceeds its corresponding normal fluctuation range, this moment is recorded as the response moment when the gas source first exhibits an abnormal response. The moment when the abnormal response first appears is used here, rather than the moment when the abnormal response reaches its maximum value, mainly to characterize the time position at which the controlled disturbance may begin to affect the gas source, so that different gas sources can be compared according to the order in which the abnormal response begins to appear.

[0075] For example, after the disturbance begins, gas source C first exceeds the normal fluctuation range in the 3rd monitoring cycle, gas source D first exceeds the normal fluctuation range in the 5th monitoring cycle, and gas source E first exceeds the normal fluctuation range in the 6th monitoring cycle. The times corresponding to the 3rd, 5th, and 6th monitoring cycles are then taken as the response times of C, D, and E, respectively. After sorting the response times from earliest to latest, the response order of C, D, and E can be obtained. This sorting only reflects the order in which the abnormal responses occur and does not directly indicate that the disturbance necessarily propagates in the order of C, D, and E. Further determination is needed to determine whether there is a spatial continuity between adjacent gas sources in the sorted sequence.

[0076] The spatial relationship between two adjacent gas sources can be determined based on the location of the gas source's corresponding extraction area, borehole control range, or coal seam evaluation unit. Figure 3This diagram illustrates the abnormal response propagation chain and range provided in the embodiments of this application. When dividing gas sources according to evaluation units, if two evaluation units share a common boundary or are directly adjacent, the corresponding gas sources can be considered spatially adjacent. When dividing gas sources according to borehole control areas, the distance between the control range or center position of the borehole in the coal seam can be used to determine whether two control areas are connected or the distance does not exceed a preset adjacency distance. For multi-coal-seam conditions, the pre-established spatial adjacency relationship between gas sources in adjacent coal seams can be determined by combining the coal seam level and borehole exposure relationship.

[0077] The reason for further determining spatial adjacency is that two gas sources, even if they exhibit anomalies sequentially, do not necessarily have a direct propagation link. For example, gas source C may first generate an anomalous response, followed by gas source F, which is farther from C, generating an anomalous response, while gas sources D and E, located between C and F, do not generate any anomalous responses. In this case, it is inappropriate to directly establish a propagation relationship from C to F simply because C responded before F. By requiring that two sequentially adjacent gas sources also satisfy spatial adjacency, sporadic anomalies that are clearly separated in space can be excluded.

[0078] After determining spatial adjacency, the time interval between the first responses of the two gas sources is further calculated and compared with a preset propagation time interval. The preset propagation time interval is used to limit the maximum allowable time span between two anomalous responses. If two spatially adjacent gas sources both generate anomalous responses, but there is a long time interval between them, the latter anomalous response may lack a clear continuity with the former disturbance response, and therefore no anomalous response propagation relationship is established.

[0079] The preset propagation time interval can be determined based on the monitoring cycle of the target area and the normal response time between adjacent gas sources. For example, if the monitoring data is updated every minute, and in the initial disturbance test, abnormal responses between adjacent gas sources typically occur sequentially within 5 monitoring cycles, then the time corresponding to 5 monitoring cycles can be used as the preset propagation time interval. Alternatively, the response time intervals between adjacent gas sources can be statistically analyzed through multiple stable disturbance processes, and a certain time margin can be set based on the larger value to accommodate differences in gas migration speeds in different areas.

[0080] For example, if gas source C first generates an abnormal response, followed by gas source D, and the corresponding areas of C and D are spatially adjacent, and the response time of D differs from that of C by 2 monitoring cycles, which is less than the preset 5 monitoring cycles, then an abnormal response propagation relationship can be established between C and D, denoted as C to D. If gas source E subsequently generates an abnormal response, and D and E are spatially adjacent with the same response time interval requirement, then an abnormal response propagation relationship can continue to be established between D and E, thus forming a continuous abnormal response propagation process from C to D to E.

[0081] The establishment of a continuous abnormal response propagation relationship means that the subsequent abnormal response propagation relationship shares a gas source with the preceding abnormal response propagation relationship. For example, if an abnormal response propagation relationship from C to D has been established, and then an abnormal response propagation relationship from D to E is established, then the two propagation relationships are continuous through the common gas source D, and C, D, and E can be identified as the same abnormal response propagation chain. If another abnormal response propagation relationship from F to G exists, but there is no continuous propagation relationship between F and C, D, and E that meets the conditions, then F and G should form another independent abnormal response propagation chain and should not merge with C, D, and E.

[0082] In practical applications, a single controlled disturbance may generate one or more anomalous response propagation chains. When multiple independent propagation chains are formed, the anomalous response propagation range corresponding to each chain can be determined separately, and the propagation chain containing a larger number of gas sources can be selected as the main propagation chain according to subsequent prediction rules. Alternatively, the anomalous response quantity corresponding to each propagation chain can be calculated separately, and then the anomalous response propagation chain that contributes more to the gas outburst prediction can be determined. The specific selection method can be set according to the drainage area structure of the target mine.

[0083] After identifying multiple gas sources in the same abnormal response propagation chain, the propagation range of the abnormal response is determined based on the actual spatial area corresponding to each gas source. For example, if C, D, and E correspond to three spatially adjacent extraction evaluation units, then the area commonly covered by these three evaluation units is determined as the propagation range of the abnormal response corresponding to that propagation chain. The "combined range" referred to here is not simply the straight-line area between the first and last gas sources, but rather the range jointly formed by the spatial areas corresponding to each gas source actually participating in the abnormal response in the propagation chain, thus ensuring that the propagation range corresponds to the actual gas source distribution.

[0084] For example, gas sources C, D, and E correspond to three extraction evaluation units continuously set along the advance direction of the working face, forming an abnormal response propagation chain from C to D to E. These three evaluation units together constitute the abnormal response propagation range. If only the propagation relationship from C to D is formed, and the response time interval between E and D exceeds the preset propagation time interval, then E is not included in the propagation chain, and the corresponding abnormal response propagation range only includes the spatial areas corresponding to C and D.

[0085] Using the above method, this application does not determine the degree of disturbance impact solely based on the number of abnormal gas sources. Instead, it gradually establishes an abnormal response propagation chain by "sorting the initial response time, judging spatial adjacency, and judging the continuity of propagation time." This allows for the distinction between sporadic abnormal responses and those that continuously expand along adjacent gas sources. When an abnormal response can continuously expand from one gas source to multiple spatially adjacent gas sources, it indicates that the impact of the controlled disturbance has broken through the local extraction location and manifested in a larger gas source area. Subsequently, the gas outburst prediction level can be further determined based on the propagation range of the abnormal response and the abnormal response amount of each gas source within the propagation chain.

[0086] Step 105 specifically involves: determining the gas outburst prediction level of the target area based on the propagation range of the abnormal response and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source, and generating the gas outburst prediction result.

[0087] Although the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit are controlled to basically cancel each other out, it is usually difficult to achieve complete consistency in actual adjustment. Therefore, it is necessary to first eliminate the flow rate portion that cannot be completely canceled between the two disturbance units, and then evaluate the abnormal response shown by other gas sources in order to reduce the impact of disturbance control error on gas outburst prediction results.

[0088] In specific implementation, after the first and second disturbance units complete the predetermined flow rate adjustment, the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit relative to the pre-disturbance gas extraction flow rate and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit relative to the pre-disturbance gas extraction flow rate are determined, respectively. Since both values ​​are represented as positive values, the absolute value of the difference between the two is calculated, and this absolute value is determined as the disturbance residual. The disturbance residual is used to characterize the portion of the gas extraction flow rate increase by the first disturbance unit and the gas extraction flow rate decrease by the second disturbance unit that is not completely offset.

[0089] For example, if the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit was 2.00 cubic meters per minute before the disturbance and increased to 2.50 cubic meters per minute after the disturbance, then the flow rate increase is 0.50 cubic meters per minute. If the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit was 2.30 cubic meters per minute before the disturbance and decreased to 1.84 cubic meters per minute after the disturbance, then the flow rate decrease is 0.46 cubic meters per minute. At this point, there is still an uncompensated flow rate of 0.04 cubic meters per minute between the two disturbance units; therefore, this 0.04 cubic meters per minute is defined as the disturbance residual. The smaller the disturbance residual, the higher the degree of flow compensation between the two disturbance units.

[0090] Furthermore, the abnormal response quantities corresponding to each gas source in the aforementioned abnormal response propagation chain are accumulated. Here, the gas sources that have already been identified through normal fluctuation ranges and included in the abnormal response propagation chain are included in the accumulation, rather than the flow changes of all gas sources within the target area. This ensures that the accumulation result primarily reflects gas changes that occur continuously along the abnormal response propagation relationship, avoiding the inclusion of spatially independent or temporally discontinuous sporadic anomalies in subsequent predictions.

[0091] For example, if the abnormal response propagation chain is from gas source C to gas source D to gas source E, where the abnormal response rate of gas source C is 0.10 cubic meters per minute, the abnormal response rate of gas source D is 0.14 cubic meters per minute, and the abnormal response rate of gas source E is 0.18 cubic meters per minute, then the cumulative result of the corresponding abnormal response rates is 0.42 cubic meters per minute. If the aforementioned disturbance residual amount is 0.04 cubic meters per minute, it indicates that the continuous abnormal response formed by other gas sources is significantly greater than the uncancelled flow portion between the two disturbance units.

[0092] When the sum of the anomalous response quantities exceeds the residual disturbance quantity, the difference between the sum and the residual disturbance quantity is determined as the net escape response quantity. In the example above, the net escape response quantity is 0.38 cubic meters per minute. The net escape response quantity characterizes the degree of anomalous response that can still be observed in other gas sources after deducting the residual flow effects that are not completely offset between the first and second disturbance units. Therefore, compared to directly using the sum of the anomalous response quantities of each gas source, the net escape response quantity can more specifically reflect the additional response formed after a locally controlled disturbance spreads to other gas sources.

[0093] It should be noted that when the cumulative result of the abnormal response is not greater than the residual disturbance, it can be considered that the abnormal responses generated by other gas sources are insufficient to eliminate the impact caused by the incomplete cancellation of the two disturbance units. In specific implementation, the net escape response can be set to zero, and the corresponding response level can be set to the lowest response level. Alternatively, the abnormal response can be excluded from the gas outburst level upgrade as an effective escape response.

[0094] After obtaining the net escape response, the response level is determined based on its magnitude. The response level primarily characterizes the strength of the abnormal gas flow generated after the disturbance propagates to other gas sources. For example, a first response threshold and a second response threshold can be preset. When the net escape response does not exceed the first response threshold, it is determined to be the first response level; when the net escape response is greater than the first response threshold but does not exceed the second response threshold, it is determined to be the second response level; when the net escape response is greater than the second response threshold, it is determined to be the third response level. Each response threshold can be determined based on the flow rate under normal extraction conditions of the target mine and historical disturbance test data.

[0095] In addition to the intensity of the anomalous response, the number of gas sources within the propagation range of the anomalous response is also determined. The number of gas sources characterizes the extent to which the anomalous response generated by this disturbance has spread. For example, if an anomalous response propagation chain includes only two adjacent gas sources, it indicates that the anomalous response is mainly confined to a small area; when the propagation chain passes through four, five, or even more gas sources consecutively, it indicates that the disturbance's impact has expanded to a larger area. Therefore, the propagation level can be determined according to the number of gas sources within the propagation range of the anomalous response.

[0096] For example, it can be defined that an abnormal response propagation range containing two gas sources is classified as the first propagation level, containing three to four gas sources as the second propagation level, and containing five or more gas sources as the third propagation level. These specific numbers are merely examples; in practical applications, corresponding propagation level classification rules can be set according to the number of gas sources in the target area, the spatial scale, and the density of extraction units.

[0097] Ultimately, the predicted gas outburst level for the target area is determined by combining the response level and the propagation level. Using both levels is necessary because neither the anomalous response quantity nor the propagation range alone can fully characterize the regional gas state. For example, a large net escape response quantity confined to a single local area may indicate strong local gas release, but without a wide-ranging impact; conversely, if the anomalous response propagates to multiple gas sources but the anomalous response quantities at each source are small, it may indicate that the disturbance has expanded, but the degree of anomalous release is not yet significant. Therefore, combining the response level and the propagation level allows for simultaneous consideration of both the intensity and spread of the anomalous response.

[0098] Specifically, a correspondence rule between response level and propagation level can be established. For example, when both the response level and propagation level are at level one, the target area can be determined to be at the first gas outburst prediction level; when at least one of them reaches level two, it can be determined to be at the second gas outburst prediction level; when both the response level and propagation level reach a higher level, it can be determined to be at the third gas outburst prediction level. Alternatively, the higher of the two levels can be used, or a level combination table can be set up for determination, as long as a clear level correspondence can be established in advance.

[0099] The generated gas outburst prediction results can include at least the gas outburst prediction level corresponding to the target area. Furthermore, it can simultaneously output the abnormal response propagation chain, abnormal response propagation range, net escape response volume, response level, and propagation level, enabling managers to understand the specific basis for the prediction level. For example, it can output "Target area is predicted to be at level three gas outburst, abnormal response propagation chain is from C to D to E to F, net escape response volume is 0.48 cubic meters per minute, response level is level three, and propagation level is level three," thereby improving the interpretability of the prediction results.

[0100] After determining the propagation range of the previous disturbance and abnormal response, the net escape response volume, and the initial gas outburst prediction level, a reverse disturbance is not immediately implemented. Instead, the extraction status of the first and second disturbance units is first restored. Specifically, the corresponding extraction valves or extraction negative pressure can be adjusted to gradually return the gas extraction flow rate of the two disturbance units to the pre-disturbance level. When the gas extraction flow rates of both the first and second disturbance units re-enter their respective normal fluctuation ranges before the disturbance and continue for a preset number of monitoring cycles, it can be considered that the previous artificial flow adjustment has ended, thus avoiding confusion caused by the direct superposition of the two disturbances.

[0101] Subsequently, a reverse disturbance, opposite in direction to the previous disturbance, is applied to the first and second disturbance units. A reverse disturbance refers to exchanging the direction of flow change between the two disturbance units during the previous disturbance. For example, if the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit increased and the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit decreased during the previous disturbance, then the reverse disturbance will decrease the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit and increase the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit. Preferably, the two disturbances use the same or similar target flow rate changes, making the amplitudes of the two disturbances comparable, while still controlling the flow rate changes of the two disturbance units to essentially cancel each other out.

[0102] After the reverse disturbance is implemented, the gas extraction flow rate corresponding to each gas source other than those directly involved in the disturbance continues to be acquired. To determine whether the response of the same gas source under the two disturbances reverses, a baseline gas extraction flow rate before the disturbance can be predetermined. This baseline gas extraction flow rate can be the average gas extraction flow rate during the continuous stable monitoring phase before the first disturbance, or it can be the center value of the normal fluctuation range of the corresponding gas source. By setting a unified baseline, the gas flow rate states under the first disturbance and the reverse disturbance can be compared using the same reference.

[0103] When the gas extraction flow rate of a gas source after a disturbance is higher than its baseline gas extraction flow rate and exceeds the normal fluctuation range, the gas source can be determined to be in an increasing state; when its gas extraction flow rate is lower than the baseline gas extraction flow rate and exceeds the normal fluctuation range, it can be determined to be in a decreasing state. The increasing and decreasing states here are not simply comparisons of increases and decreases at two adjacent sampling times, but rather descriptions of the abnormal response direction of the corresponding gas source relative to the baseline state before the disturbance.

[0104] Further identification of gas sources exhibiting anomalous responses in both the preceding and reverse perturbations is needed. Gas sources that produce an anomalous response in only one of the perturbations can be excluded from irreversible response assessment because comparative information under two opposite perturbation conditions is lacking. For example, if gas sources C, D, and E produce anomalous responses during the first perturbation, but only D and E produce anomalous responses during the reverse perturbation, then the response states of D and E in the two perturbations can be further compared.

[0105] Under normal circumstances, if the abnormal response of a gas source is primarily determined by the current disturbance direction, its response state should typically change accordingly after the overall direction of the external disturbance reverses. For example, after the first disturbance, gas source D may show an increasing response, while after a reverse disturbance, it may show a decreasing response or at least return to its normal fluctuation range. This indicates that gas source D can adjust its response as the disturbance direction changes, and it is not considered an irreversible gas source.

[0106] Conversely, if a gas source exhibits an abnormal response in both of two disturbances occurring in opposite directions, and both responses show the same increase or decrease, then the abnormal change in the gas source cannot be simply explained by the current disturbance direction. For example, after the first disturbance, the extraction flow rate of gas source D increases by 0.15 cubic meters per minute relative to the baseline value, while after the reverse disturbance, gas source D still increases by 0.11 cubic meters per minute relative to the baseline value. Although the flow rate changes in the two directly disturbed units have reversed overall, gas source D still maintains an increasing state; therefore, gas source D can be identified as an irreversible response gas source.

[0107] The term "irreversible response" in this application does not require the corresponding gas source to be physically irrecoverable. Rather, it means that during the verification process involving both forward and reverse disturbances, the anomalous response does not exhibit a corresponding reverse change as the direction of the external disturbance reverses. This judgment allows for the distinction between general follow-up gas responses and anomalous responses with continuous release characteristics.

[0108] Once an irreversible gas source is identified, the predicted gas outburst level for the target area can be increased. For example, if the initial prediction level obtained based on the net escape response and propagation level is level two, the prediction level can be increased to level three when at least one irreversible gas source exists. Different level correction rules can also be set based on the number of irreversible gas sources. For instance, if only one irreversible gas source is present, the level can be increased by one level; if multiple irreversible gas sources are present and these sources are located in the same abnormal response propagation chain, a higher level can be maintained or a corresponding irreversible response marker can be added. The specific determination method can be preset according to the actual situation of the target mine.

[0109] After identifying the irreversible gas source, it is possible to further determine whether the anomaly depends on a specific combination of the first and second disturbance units by replacing the disturbance unit. Specifically, keeping the first disturbance unit unchanged, a third disturbance unit is selected from the remaining gas extraction units. The gas source corresponding to the third disturbance unit should be different from the gas source corresponding to the second disturbance unit, and preferably also different from the gas source corresponding to the first disturbance unit, so that the re-executed disturbance has a new combination of gas sources.

[0110] After replacing the second disturbance unit with a third disturbance unit, a controlled disturbance with essentially offsetting flow rates is re-established. For example, the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit is increased by 0.50 cubic meters per minute, while the gas extraction flow rate of the third disturbance unit is decreased by approximately 0.50 cubic meters per minute, ensuring that the difference in flow rate changes remains within a preset fluctuation range. Therefore, by changing the other disturbance source while keeping the first disturbance source unchanged, it can be used to verify whether the aforementioned irreversible gas source is solely generated by the specific interaction between the original first and second disturbance units.

[0111] After the re-perturbation, the response time of the first occurrence of an abnormal response quantity for each gas source is recorded according to the aforementioned method for judging abnormal response quantities, and the response sequence is determined from earliest to latest. The response sequence indicates the position of the gas source relative to other abnormal response gas sources during this perturbation process. For example, if the gas sources that show abnormal responses in sequence after the re-perturbation are E, D, F, and G, then the response sequence of E is first, that of D is second, that of F is third, and that of G is fourth.

[0112] Further compare the response order of irreversible gas sources during the re-perturbation process with that during the previous perturbation process. For example, if irreversible gas source D was the third gas source to produce an abnormal response during the previous perturbation process, and after the third perturbation unit replaces the second perturbation unit, D produces an abnormal response again and becomes the second gas source to produce an abnormal response, then its current response order is no later than its response order during the previous perturbation. This indicates that even if the second perturbation source is changed, D can still participate in the abnormal response process relatively early, therefore D can be further identified as a continuously escaping gas source.

[0113] The criterion of "response sequence not later than the response sequence in the previous disturbance" is mainly because different disturbance units have different spatial locations and extraction conditions, and the absolute response time of the third disturbance may be advanced or delayed overall. By comparing its relative position in the current abnormal response sequence, it can be determined whether the gas source still maintains a strong response priority, thereby reducing the impact of changes in the overall time scale of different disturbance processes on the judgment results.

[0114] If an irreversible gas source no longer produces an anomalous response after replacing the second disturbance unit, or if it still produces an anomalous response but its response sequence is significantly later than the previous disturbance, it can be temporarily excluded from being identified as a persistent escape gas source. This situation indicates that the previous irreversible response may be strongly correlated with the original second disturbance unit, or that the persistent response stability of the gas source is insufficient; therefore, the corresponding prediction level should not be further increased.

[0115] When a persistent gas escape source is identified, the gas emission prediction level for the target area can be further increased based on the irreversible response assessment. Specifically, the irreversible gas source can be used as the first level correction condition, and the persistent gas escape source as the second level correction condition. For example, the initial gas emission prediction level is level one; after identifying an irreversible gas source, it is increased to level two; and after further confirmation of a persistent gas escape source, it is increased to level three. If the highest prediction level has already been reached, it can be maintained, while a persistent escape marker is added to the prediction result.

[0116] The methods provided in this application can be applied to various application scenarios, including but not limited to: They can be applied to gas outburst prediction scenarios in longwall mining faces, where controlled disturbances with essentially offsetting flow rates are implemented by selecting different gas extraction units to identify abnormal responses formed by the propagation of disturbances to adjacent gas sources, thus predicting potential areas of enhanced gas outbursts during the face's advancement; they can also be applied to multi-coal-seam joint extraction scenarios, utilizing the disturbance response relationship between extraction units corresponding to different coal seams to identify cross-coal-seam gas migration and continuously escaping gas sources; furthermore, they can be used for evaluating the effectiveness of gas control in coal roadway strips or tunneling areas, where, after adjusting local extraction parameters, potential high-risk outburst areas are identified based on the propagation range of abnormal responses and the net escape response amount, providing a basis for optimizing extraction parameters and adjusting subsequent gas control measures.

[0117] According to another embodiment, a gas outburst prediction system based on perturbation propagation is provided. Figure 4 A schematic block diagram of a gas outburst prediction system based on disturbance propagation according to one embodiment is shown. Figure 4 As shown, the system includes:

[0118] The data acquisition module 401 is used to acquire the gas extraction flow rate of multiple gas extraction units in the target area and determine the gas source corresponding to each gas extraction unit.

[0119] The disturbance control module 402 is used to determine the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit from the gas extraction unit, adjust the corresponding extraction valve or extraction negative pressure, so that the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit increases and the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit decreases, and the difference between the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit is within a preset fluctuation range.

[0120] The abnormal response determination module 403 is used to acquire the gas flow changes of other gas sources besides the gas sources corresponding to the first and second disturbance units after the disturbance, and to determine the abnormal response amount that exceeds the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance.

[0121] The propagation analysis module 404 is used to determine the propagation range of the abnormal response based on the location and sequence of occurrence of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources.

[0122] The prediction module 405 is used to determine the gas outburst prediction level of the target area based on the propagation range of the abnormal response and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source, and generate the gas outburst prediction result.

[0123] As an implementable approach, when determining the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit, the disturbance control module 402 includes: selecting two gas extraction units with stable flow rates from gas extraction units corresponding to different gas sources, and using them as the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit, respectively.

[0124] As an implementable approach, the disturbance control module 402, when adjusting the corresponding extraction valve or extraction negative pressure, includes: determining a target flow change based on the adjustable flow range of the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit; dividing the target flow change into multiple continuous adjustment amounts; gradually increasing the gas extraction flow of the first disturbance unit and gradually decreasing the gas extraction flow of the second disturbance unit according to each continuous adjustment amount; after each adjustment, determining the flow increase of the first disturbance unit relative to the gas extraction flow before the disturbance and the flow decrease of the second disturbance unit relative to the gas extraction flow before the disturbance; when the difference between the flow increase and the flow decrease exceeds the preset fluctuation range, adjusting the first disturbance unit or the second disturbance unit according to the deviation direction of the difference; when either disturbance unit reaches the corresponding adjustable flow boundary and the difference still exceeds the preset fluctuation range, adjusting the gas extraction flow of the other disturbance unit until the difference enters the preset fluctuation range, or canceling the current continuous adjustment amount.

[0125] As an implementable approach, when the abnormal response determination module 403 determines the abnormal response quantity that exceeds the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance, it includes: determining the normal fluctuation range corresponding to each gas source based on the gas extraction flow rate of multiple consecutive monitoring cycles before the disturbance; when the gas extraction flow rate of the gas source after the disturbance exceeds the corresponding normal fluctuation range, the flow rate change exceeding the normal fluctuation range is determined as the abnormal response quantity.

[0126] As an implementable approach, when determining the propagation range of an abnormal response based on the occurrence position and sequence relationship of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources, the propagation analysis module 404 includes: recording the response time of the first occurrence of the abnormal response quantity of each gas source, and sorting the corresponding gas sources according to the response time; determining the spatial positional relationship between two adjacent gas sources in the sorting; when a gas source ranked later in the sorting is spatially adjacent to a gas source ranked earlier in the sorting, and the time interval between their response times does not exceed a preset propagation time interval, establishing an abnormal response propagation relationship between the two gas sources; identifying multiple gas sources that have consecutively established an abnormal response propagation relationship as the same abnormal response propagation chain, and determining the combined range of the areas where each gas source in the abnormal response propagation chain is located as the abnormal response propagation range.

[0127] As an implementable approach, when the prediction module 405 determines the gas outburst prediction level of the target area based on the abnormal response propagation range and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source, it includes: determining the absolute value of the difference between the flow increase of the first disturbance unit and the flow decrease of the second disturbance unit as the disturbance residual; accumulating the abnormal response amounts corresponding to each gas source in the abnormal response propagation chain, and when the accumulation result is greater than the disturbance residual, determining the difference between the two as the net escape response amount; determining the number of gas sources included in the abnormal response propagation range; determining the response level based on the net escape response amount, determining the propagation level based on the number of gas sources, and determining the corresponding gas outburst prediction level based on the response level and the propagation level.

[0128] As an implementable approach, before generating the gas outburst prediction result, the prediction module 405 further includes: after the gas extraction flow rates of the first and second disturbance units recover to the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance, applying a reverse disturbance opposite to the previous disturbance to the first and second disturbance units; acquiring the gas extraction flow rates of each gas source after the reverse disturbance, and determining their increase or decrease state relative to the baseline gas extraction flow rate before the disturbance; identifying gas sources that exhibit abnormal response amounts in both the previous disturbance and the reverse disturbance; when the determined gas sources exhibit the same increase or decrease state in the two disturbances, identifying the corresponding gas source as an irreversible response gas source; and increasing the gas outburst prediction level of the target area based on the irreversible response gas source.

[0129] As an implementable approach, the prediction module 405 further includes: keeping the first disturbance unit unchanged, selecting a third disturbance unit corresponding to different gas sources from the remaining gas extraction units, and replacing the second disturbance unit with the third disturbance unit to re-execute the disturbance; obtaining the response time of the abnormal response amount of each gas source after the re-disturbance, and determining the response sequence of each gas source according to the response time; when the irreversible response gas source exhibits an abnormal response amount again, and its response sequence is not later than the response sequence in the previous disturbance, the corresponding gas source is determined as a continuously escaping gas source; and increasing the gas outburst prediction level of the target area according to the continuously escaping gas source.

[0130] As an implementable approach, the prediction module 405 further includes: acquiring the abnormal response propagation range, abnormal response amount, and actual gas emission level after the disturbance corresponding to multiple disturbances, forming disturbance propagation samples; clustering each disturbance propagation sample according to the abnormal response propagation range and abnormal response amount to obtain multiple disturbance propagation state categories; and correcting the gas emission prediction result according to the disturbance propagation state category to which the current disturbance belongs and the actual gas emission level corresponding to that category.

[0131] The technical solutions provided in this application have been described in detail above. Specific examples have been used to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this application. The descriptions of the above embodiments are only for the purpose of helping to understand the methods and core ideas of this application. Furthermore, those skilled in the art will recognize that, based on the ideas of this application, there will be changes in the specific implementation methods and application scope. Therefore, the content of this specification should not be construed as a limitation of this application.

Claims

1. A gas outburst prediction method based on disturbance propagation, characterized in that, include: Obtain the gas extraction flow rate of multiple gas extraction units in the target area and determine the gas source corresponding to each gas extraction unit; The first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit are determined from the gas extraction unit. The corresponding extraction valves or extraction negative pressure are adjusted to increase the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit and decrease the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit. The difference between the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit is within a preset fluctuation range. After the disturbance, obtain the gas flow changes of other gas sources besides the gas sources corresponding to the first and second disturbance units, and determine the abnormal response quantities that exceed the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance. The propagation range of the abnormal response is determined based on the location and sequence of occurrence of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources. Based on the propagation range of the abnormal response and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source, the gas outburst prediction level of the target area is determined, and the gas outburst prediction result is generated.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The determination of the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit includes: Two gas extraction units with stable flow rates were selected from the gas extraction units corresponding to different gas sources, and they were used as the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit, respectively.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The adjustment of the corresponding extraction valve or extraction negative pressure includes: The target flow rate change is determined based on the adjustable flow rate range of the first and second disturbance units; The target flow rate change is divided into multiple continuous adjustment quantities; The gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit is gradually increased according to each continuous adjustment, and the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit is gradually decreased. After each adjustment is completed, the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit relative to the gas extraction flow rate before the disturbance and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit relative to the gas extraction flow rate before the disturbance are determined respectively. When the difference between the increase in flow rate and the decrease in flow rate exceeds the preset fluctuation range, the first disturbance unit or the second disturbance unit is adjusted according to the deviation direction of the difference. When any disturbance unit reaches the corresponding adjustable flow boundary and the difference still exceeds the preset fluctuation range, adjust the gas extraction flow of the other disturbance unit until the difference enters the preset fluctuation range, or cancel the current continuous adjustment.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The determination of abnormal response quantities that exceed the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance includes: The normal fluctuation range corresponding to each gas source is determined based on the gas extraction flow rate of multiple consecutive monitoring cycles before the disturbance. When the gas extraction flow rate of the gas source after disturbance exceeds the corresponding normal fluctuation range, the flow rate change exceeding the normal fluctuation range is determined as the abnormal response quantity.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, Determining the propagation range of the abnormal response based on the location and sequence of occurrence of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources includes: Record the response time when each gas source first shows an abnormal response amount, and sort the corresponding gas sources according to the response time; Determine the spatial relationship between two adjacent gas sources; When a gas source ranked lower in the order is spatially adjacent to a gas source ranked higher in the order, and the time interval between their responses does not exceed the preset propagation time interval, an abnormal response propagation relationship is established between the two gas sources. Multiple gas sources that continuously establish an abnormal response propagation relationship are identified as the same abnormal response propagation chain, and the combined range of the areas where each gas source in the abnormal response propagation chain is located is identified as the abnormal response propagation range.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The step of determining the predicted gas outburst level of the target area based on the propagation range of the abnormal response and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source includes: The absolute value of the difference between the flow increase of the first disturbance unit and the flow decrease of the second disturbance unit is determined as the disturbance residual. The abnormal response quantities corresponding to each gas source in the abnormal response propagation chain are accumulated. When the accumulated result is greater than the residual disturbance quantity, the difference between the two is determined as the net escape response quantity. Determine the number of gas sources included within the propagation range of the abnormal response; The response level is determined based on the net escape response amount, the propagation level is determined based on the number of gas sources, and the corresponding gas outburst prediction level is determined based on the response level and the propagation level.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that, Before generating the gas outburst prediction result, the following steps are also included: After the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit returns to the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance, a reverse disturbance opposite to the direction of the previous disturbance is applied to the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit. Obtain the gas extraction flow rate of each gas source after the reverse disturbance, and determine its increasing or decreasing state relative to the reference gas extraction flow rate before the disturbance. Identify the gas source that exhibited abnormal response amounts in both the previous disturbance and the reverse disturbance; When the identified gas source has the same increasing or decreasing state in two disturbances, the corresponding gas source is identified as an irreversible response gas source. The gas outburst prediction level of the target area is improved based on the irreversible response gas source.

8. The method according to claim 7, characterized in that, The method further includes: Keeping the first disturbance unit unchanged, select a third disturbance unit corresponding to a different gas source from the remaining gas extraction units, and replace the second disturbance unit with the third disturbance unit to re-execute the disturbance; Obtain the response time of each gas source after the re-disturbance and determine the response sequence of each gas source according to the response time; When the irreversible gas source exhibits an abnormal response again, and its response sequence is no later than the response sequence in the previous disturbance, the corresponding gas source is identified as a continuously escaping gas source. The gas outburst prediction level for the target area is increased based on the continuously escaping gas source.

9. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The method further includes: Obtain the propagation range, abnormal response amount, and actual gas emission level after the disturbance corresponding to multiple disturbances to form a disturbance propagation sample; Based on the abnormal response propagation range and abnormal response amount, each disturbance propagation sample is clustered to obtain multiple disturbance propagation state categories; The gas emission prediction results are corrected based on the current disturbance propagation state category and the corresponding actual gas emission level.

10. A gas outburst prediction system based on disturbance propagation, characterized in that, include: The data acquisition module is used to acquire the gas extraction flow rate of multiple gas extraction units in the target area and determine the gas source corresponding to each gas extraction unit. The disturbance control module is used to determine the first disturbance unit and the second disturbance unit from the gas extraction unit, adjust the corresponding extraction valve or extraction negative pressure, so that the gas extraction flow rate of the first disturbance unit increases and the gas extraction flow rate of the second disturbance unit decreases, and the difference between the increase in flow rate of the first disturbance unit and the decrease in flow rate of the second disturbance unit is within a preset fluctuation range. The abnormal response determination module is used to acquire the gas flow changes of other gas sources besides the gas sources corresponding to the first and second disturbance units after the disturbance, and to determine the abnormal response quantities that exceed the normal fluctuation range before the disturbance. The propagation analysis module is used to determine the propagation range of the abnormal response based on the location and sequence of occurrence of the abnormal response quantity among different gas sources; The prediction module is used to determine the gas outburst prediction level of the target area based on the propagation range of the abnormal response and the abnormal response amount corresponding to each gas source, and to generate the gas outburst prediction result.

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