A regional economic data dynamic research and trend prediction analysis method

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of regional economic data dynamic research and tendency prediction analysis method, specifically related to regional economic data processing technical field, for solving the problem that in the existing regional economic research, when multiple sources, multiple period data exist asynchronous to number, late to report, revise change and the inconsistency of caliber, it is difficult to distinguish the actual research state of each index. By establishing index to number constraint table and generating index to number record, the target region, research period, index list, source department, statistical period, should arrive time, allowed delay time and caliber version are uniformly locked, and the arrival, late, report, revision, caliber change, abnormal fluctuation and state of to-be-written-back of each index are determined, so as to distinguish different data states, avoid the current research sample from mixing different state data, and cause research basis to be untraceable.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of regional economic data processing technology, specifically a method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data. Background Technology

[0002] Regional economic performance analysis typically requires a comprehensive review of various data sources, including statistical reports, tax invoicing, electricity load, project investment, business operations, industrial park operations, and consumption patterns. This analysis examines the target region's industrial performance, investment progress, business activity, and consumption changes over a specific period. Existing regional economic monitoring systems generally establish an indicator system to aggregate, clean, display, and analyze trends in data from different departments, combining this data with historical data or related indicators to predict regional economic trends. This approach effectively meets the needs for routine indicator dashboards, year-on-year and month-on-month analysis, early warning alerts, and scheduling reporting, and has been widely adopted in economic management.

[0003] However, in actual regional economic scheduling scenarios, various types of data do not arrive at the same time, frequency, or statistical standard. Statistical reports are usually generated monthly or quarterly, while tax invoicing and electricity load data may be summarized daily or weekly. Data on project investment, enterprise operations, park operations, and consumption circulation may also involve departmental supplementary reporting, late enterprise reporting, ledger revisions, and adjustments to statistical standards. Existing methods mostly focus on summarizing and predicting currently acquired data. For a given assessment period, there is usually a lack of unified status constraints and version records to determine whether each indicator is on time, not received, late, supplemented, revised, has changed its statistical standard, or is experiencing abnormal fluctuations. This easily leads to data from different arrival statuses being directly mixed in the same assessment sample.

[0004] The above situation leads to a relatively concentrated problem: after a regional economic trend forecast has been formed, if subsequent official, supplementary, or revised values ​​continue to arrive, it becomes difficult to accurately trace the data sources, value types, attribution of anomalies, and contribution relationships of indicators used in the previous analysis. Furthermore, forecast deviations are difficult to reflect back to the corresponding indicator status and the constraints of the next cycle's analysis. Consequently, the regional economic analysis process is prone to creating a "predict first, revise later, but not closed-loop" breakpoint, hindering the continuous identification of interference from late supplementary reports, changes in statistical methods, and revisions on the analysis results. Summary of the Invention

[0005] To address the shortcomings of existing technologies, this invention provides a method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data, thereby resolving the problems mentioned in the background section.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution: a method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data, comprising: S1. Identify the target region, analysis period, and list of regional economic indicators. Based on the source department, statistical period, expected time, allowable delay time, and version of the statistical caliber, establish an indicator arrival constraint table. S2: Receive statistical reports, tax invoices, electricity load, project investment, enterprise operation, park operation, and consumption circulation data; match the indicator to data constraint table; and generate indicator to data records. S3. Based on the indicator arrival constraint table and indicator arrival record, determine the arrival, absence, late arrival, supplementary reporting, revision, change in scope, abnormal fluctuation, and pending write-back status of each indicator; S4. Generate the current assessment sample version based on the assessment status, and form temporary substitute values, confidence flags, supplementary reporting difference fields, revised difference fields, caliber isolation flags, and write-back keys; S5. Generate a regional economic trend forecast record based on the current analysis sample version, and bind the sample version number, indicator status, value type adopted, contribution direction and contribution intensity; S6. When the official value, supplementary value, or revised value arrives, generate a deviation record based on the key to be written back, and write back the indicator judgment status, abnormal attribution results, reliability of substitute values, and the data constraint table for the next cycle.

[0007] Furthermore, S1 includes: When establishing the indicator-to-data constraint table, the target area is determined by one of the following area identifiers: administrative division code, park code, and development zone code. The analysis period is recorded as one statistical time period: day, week, month, or quarter. The list of regional economic indicators is sorted by target region, analysis period, and indicator number. The system generates a table creation key based on the target region, analysis period, indicator number, source department, statistical period, and statistical version, and then appends the indicator to the data constraint table according to the table creation key.

[0008] Furthermore, S2 includes: When generating the indicator arrival record, first register the original receipt record according to the source document number, submission time and batch number; Then merge them according to the target area and align them according to the assessment cycle; Subsequently, the target area, analysis period, and indicator number are used as the main matching items, and the source department, statistical period, and statistical version are used as the consistency confirmation items to match the indicator to the data constraint table. Upon successful matching, an indicator arrival record is generated, which includes the actual arrival time, data value, unit of measurement, source file number, data batch, caliber version, and original receiving record number.

[0009] Furthermore, S3 includes: When determining the assessment status of each indicator, first compare the indicator number, source department, statistical period, expected arrival time, allowable delay time and caliber version in the indicator arrival constraint table with the indicator number, source department, statistical period, actual arrival time, data batch, caliber version and data value in the indicator arrival record; Based on the actual arrival time, the expected arrival time, and the allowed delay time, the system generates three statuses: arrived, not arrived, and late.

[0010] Furthermore, S3 also includes: After the arrival status, absence status, and late status are established, a supplementary reporting status is formed based on the order of data batches within the same assessment period for the same indicator. The revision status is determined based on the replacement relationship between the new batch of data values ​​and the previous batch of data values; The inconsistency in the different versions of the caliber leads to a change in the caliber status; Abnormal fluctuations are identified by comparing data values ​​with historical values ​​for the same period and values ​​of related indicators. The indicators for subsequent receipt of official values, supplementary reports, and revised values ​​will be in a pending write-back state.

[0011] Furthermore, S4 includes: When generating the current analysis sample version, register it according to the target area, analysis period, sample generation time and version number; Read the assessment status according to the indicator number, and organize the usable records of the same indicator according to the status chain; The status indicator of the number of items reached is written with the data value and unit of measurement; The status indicator of the missing number is based on the pre-registered alternative source to form a temporary alternative value, and the alternative source, the time of alternative formation, the basis for alternative and the confidence mark are registered.

[0012] Furthermore, S4 also includes: In the current version of the analysis sample, the supplementary reporting status indicator is based on the data values ​​of the previous batch and the data values ​​of the supplementary reporting batch to form a supplementary reporting difference field; The revised status indicator forms a revision difference field based on the data values ​​before and after the revision. The caliber change status index forms the caliber isolation mark; The pending write-back status indicator generates a pending write-back key based on the target area, analysis period, indicator number, sample version number, status formation time, and indicator arrival record number.

[0013] Furthermore, S5 includes: When generating regional economic trend forecast records, read the current analysis sample version and confirm the sample version number, target area, analysis period, and sample item completeness; Sample items with indicator number, adopted value, unit of measurement, indicator status, and adopted value type will be included in the set of participating indicators. The trend direction is formed based on the changing relationship of the participating indicators, and the sample version number, indicator status, value type, contribution direction and contribution intensity are written in the details.

[0014] Furthermore, S6 includes: When generating deviation records, the previous analysis sample version is located based on the target area, analysis period, indicator number, sample version number, status formation time and indicator number in the key to be written back; Compare the values ​​used in the early stage with the values ​​of the arrived data under the same unit of measurement to form a deviation record that includes the deviation value, deviation direction, deviation ratio, original indicator judgment status, corresponding sample version number and corresponding trend prediction record number; Based on the deviation records, the indicators are rewritten to determine the status, the results of the abnormal attribution, the reliability of the substitute values, and the constraint table for the next period.

[0015] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: 1. By establishing an indicator arrival constraint table, the target area, assessment period, list of regional economic indicators, source department, statistical period, expected arrival time, allowable delay time, and version of statistical caliber are pre-locked. After receiving statistical reports, tax invoices, electricity load, project investment, enterprise operation, park operation, and consumption circulation data, indicator arrival records are generated. Then, based on the indicator arrival constraint table and indicator arrival records, the arrival, absence, late arrival, supplementary reporting, revision, caliber change, abnormal fluctuation, and pending write-back status of each indicator are determined. This achieves the purpose of distinguishing between true arrival, late supplementary reporting, revision changes, and caliber changes within the regional economic assessment period, so that the formation of subsequent assessment samples has a clear data status basis, avoiding the current assessment from directly mixing data with different arrival statuses, which would lead to the untraceability of the assessment basis.

[0016] 2. By generating the current assessment sample version based on the assessment status, and forming temporary substitute values, confidence markers, supplementary reporting difference fields, revised difference fields, caliber isolation markers, and write-back keys, regional economic trend forecast records are generated based on the current assessment sample version. When the official value, supplementary reporting value, and revised value arrive, deviation records are generated based on the write-back keys. The assessment status of indicators, abnormal attribution results, credibility of substitute values, and the data constraint table for the next cycle are written back. This achieves the goal of closing the loop between the trend forecast basis, indicator contribution relationship, and subsequent data correction results, so that the previous forecast results can form a traceable version correction chain as the official data and revised data arrive. Attached Figure Description

[0017] Figure 1 Flowchart for dynamic analysis and trend forecasting of regional economic data; Figure 2 Create a schematic diagram for the indicator-to-number constraint table; Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the reception and matching of multi-source regional economic data. Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the indicator analysis and state determination branch; Figure 5 A schematic diagram is generated for the current analysis sample version; Figure 6 A diagram illustrating the link between regional economic trend forecasting records and contributions; Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the subsequent data arrival and pending write-back closed loop. Detailed Implementation

[0018] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0019] Example: Combined with Appendix Figures 1-7 This embodiment provides a method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data, including: S1. Identify the target region, analysis period, and list of regional economic indicators. Based on the source department, statistical period, expected arrival time, allowable delay time, and statistical version, establish an indicator arrival constraint table. Specific implementation method: The regional economic analysis system first locks the target region through the business configuration terminal. The target region is determined according to one of the following: administrative division code, park code, or development zone code. The on-site location is the data filing seat of the regional economic operation dispatch center. The execution entities are system administrators and economic operation business personnel. The data sources are catalogs published by the statistics department, indicator catalogs of the tax department, electricity consumption indicator catalogs of power companies, project ledgers of the development and reform department, enterprise operation ledgers of the industry and information technology department, and consumption and circulation ledgers of the commerce department.

[0020] When determining the target area, the same administrative level is used as the boundary, and areas across levels are not directly merged; if it is necessary to cover multiple parks, separate area identifiers are established before they are included in the same target area record to avoid mixing of the scope of subsequent indicators.

[0021] The analysis period is then determined, and the analysis period is registered according to one of the following: daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly. The start and end times are based on the statistical period adopted by the regional economic dispatch meeting, and the time caliber is local natural time. Cross-month indicators are registered according to the month to which they belong, as confirmed by the statistics department. Records that cannot be confirmed to belong to a month are not included in this step of table creation and are transferred to the list to be supplemented.

[0022] Next, compile a list of regional economic indicators. The list of regional economic indicators is selected one by one from the confirmed departmental indicator catalog. At least the indicator name, indicator number, unit of measurement, industry, target region, and statistical scope should be recorded. The unit of measurement should be retained according to the original scope of the source department, such as 10,000 yuan, kilowatt-hour, household, unit, ton. Automatic unit conversion is prohibited in this step. If the same indicator has different units, the source record should be retained and marked as pending verification.

[0023] When organizing, first merge by target area, then merge by analysis period, and finally sort by indicator number; standardize spaces and full-width / half-width symbols in names, and remove duplicate numbers and names, but do not automatically fill in source department, statistical period, due time, allowable delay time, and caliber version. If any field is missing, only register the status of pending entry, and do not generate a complete indicator data constraint table record.

[0024] The source department is determined based on the issuing, submitting, or maintaining agency of the indicator catalog. When multiple departments jointly maintain the catalog, the actual submitting agency is used as the source department, and the collaborating departments are noted. The statistical period is registered as one of daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly based on the frequency of the indicator's formation. Indicators with the same name in different statistical periods are not merged.

[0025] The due date should be determined according to the reporting date published by the source department, the reporting deadline agreed upon by the system, or the existing scheduling system, and the date and hour should be recorded. The allowable delay time should be determined according to the allowable late submission range of the source department, the stability of historical data, and the cut-off requirements of business meetings. As a fixed field under the same indicator and the same version, it should not be automatically inferred by the system without obtaining the basis of the system.

[0026] The statistical caliber versions are compiled based on the document number of the source department, the version of the indicator explanation, the year of the statistical system, and the version of the ledger template. When the statistical caliber version changes, a new version record is created, and the old version is not overwritten. Only the time of discontinuation is recorded in the effective boundary.

[0027] After the above fields are confirmed, the system generates a table key according to the combination of target area, analysis period, indicator number, source department, statistical period, and statistical version. The data is written in the order of execution according to the table key. When submitting repeatedly, only existing records are returned and old records are not overwritten. If the expected time or the allowed delay time is found to be inconsistent under the same table key, the writing of the indicator is suspended and a record pending verification is generated.

[0028] The indicator-to-data constraint table is stored in the basic rule base of the regional economic analysis system as a relational table or a searchable document table. The record content includes the target area, analysis period, indicator number and indicator name in the regional economic indicator list, source department, statistical period, expected time, allowed delay time, statistical version, creation time, creator ID, and version status. The minimum submit fields are target area, analysis period, indicator number, source department, statistical period, expected time, allowed delay time, and statistical version. The minimum return content is the table creation key, the record number in the table, and the version status.

[0029] Once the table is completed, it provides the next step with constraint records that can be retrieved by target region and analysis period. It does not directly receive economic data or predict the status of indicators in advance.

[0030] When dealing with fields related to tax invoicing and business operations, only the indicator catalog and scope are registered, without storing detailed enterprise names, taxpayer identification numbers, or personal information; access records retain the operator, time, content before and after field changes, and source basis.

[0031] Preferably, in the monthly assessment of a certain district / county, the target area is taken as administrative division code 320500, the assessment period is taken as May 2026, and the list of regional economic indicators includes 60 indicators. Among them, the unit of industrial electricity consumption is kilowatt-hour, the statistical period is daily, the due time is 10:00 on the next day, the allowable delay time is 6 hours, and the caliber version is the Electricity Daily Report Template 2026; the unit of fixed asset investment is 10,000 yuan, the statistical period is monthly, the due time is 18:00 on the 5th of the next month, the allowable delay time is 24 hours, and the caliber version is the Investment Monthly Report 2026. The system finally generates 60 indicator arrival constraint table records, of which 2 records are pending supplementation due to missing caliber versions, and 58 records are entered into the basic rule base.

[0032] Alternatively, the target area can be determined by the industrial park code, and the assessment cycle can be a weekly scheduling cycle. The indicator arrival constraint table is still formed according to the source department, statistical cycle, expected arrival time, allowable delay time, and caliber version, without changing the table creation order and recording caliber of this step.

[0033] S2. Receive statistical reports, tax invoices, electricity load, project investment, enterprise operation, park operation, and consumption circulation data; match them with the indicator-to-data constraint table; and generate indicator-to-data records. Specific implementation method: After the indicator data constraint table takes effect, the regional economic assessment system receives statistical reports, tax invoices, electricity load, project investment, enterprise operation, park operation, and consumption circulation data according to the processing period corresponding to the assessment cycle. The on-site location is the data access seat of the regional economic operation dispatch center, and the execution entities are the data access program and business review personnel. The scope of reception is limited to the target areas, assessment cycles, and indicator numbers that have been registered in the indicator data constraint table.

[0034] Statistical reports are sourced from statistical department report files or reporting systems, retaining the report period, indicator name, indicator number, unit of measurement, submission time, and source file number; tax invoicing data comes from the tax summary interface or anonymized summary files, accepting only industry classification, region, invoice amount, number of invoice holders, and summary period, but not taxpayer details; electricity load data comes from power companies' regional electricity consumption ledgers, retaining electricity consumption, maximum load, statistical date, and ledger version; project investment data comes from the development and reform department's project ledgers, retaining the project's region, investment completion amount, statistical month, and ledger batch; enterprise operation data comes from the industry and information technology department or ledgers submitted by park enterprises, retaining output value, revenue, number of employees, reporting period, and submission batch; park operation data comes from the park management ledgers, retaining the number of resident enterprises, number of enterprises in operation, factory building area, and statistical date; consumption circulation data comes from the commerce department's summary tables, retaining sales volume, customer traffic, number of transactions, and statistical period.

[0035] The above data is first registered as original receiving records by source document number, submission time, and batch number, then merged by target region, followed by alignment by analysis period, and finally matched to the indicator-to-data constraint table by indicator number. During alignment, only the date, month, and quarter are included in the locked analysis period, without changing the statistical period given by the source department. During processing, only duplicate records of the same source document, the same batch, and the same indicator are removed, without deleting records of numerical fluctuations. Supplementation is limited to adding the target region, analysis period, indicator number, and caliber version that already exist in the indicator-to-data constraint table, without automatically supplementing data values, source departments, statistical periods, submission times, and units of measurement.

[0036] When matching the indicator arrival constraint table, the target region, analysis period, and indicator number are the main matching items, and the source department, statistical period, and statistical version are the consistency confirmation items. After successful matching, an indicator arrival record is generated. The record content includes indicator number, target region, analysis period, source department, statistical period, actual arrival time, data value, unit of measurement, source document number, data batch, statistical version, and original receiving record number.

[0037] The actual arrival time is the time when the system successfully receives the data. The data value retains the original unit value in the source file. If the unit of measurement is inconsistent with the indicator arrival constraint table, it will not be converted and entered into the database. The record will be transferred to the list to be verified. If the source department, statistical period or caliber version cannot be matched, the indicator arrival record will not be generated for the record. Only the original receipt record will be retained.

[0038] The data arrival records of indicators are stored in the data record database of the regional economic analysis system in an append-only manner. Old batches are not overwritten by new batches. When the same target region, analysis period, indicator number, source document number and data batch are submitted repeatedly, the existing record number is returned to avoid duplicate entries. When different batches correspond to the same indicator, the batch order is retained for the next step to continue to use based on the indicator arrival constraint table and indicator arrival records.

[0039] Preferably, the submission window for a single batch can be set to 30 minutes, with no more than 3 retries per attempt and a 5-minute interval between retries. Records that still cannot be matched after the submission window expires are added to the list of records to be supplemented without interrupting the recording of other records in the same batch. On-site spot checks can be conducted by randomly selecting no less than 5% of the records from each batch of indicator-to-data records and comparing them with the source document number, indicator number, unit of measurement, and version of the measurement. If any field is inconsistent, the batch is returned for review.

[0040] Preferably, in the monthly assessment of a certain district / county in May 2026, the system received 12 statistical reports, 3 tax invoice summaries, 31 daily electricity load reports, 1 project investment ledger, 4 enterprise operation ledgers, 2 park operation ledgers, and 2 consumption and circulation summary tables. After matching the indicator data constraint table, 286 indicator data records were generated. Among them, 9 records were pending verification due to inconsistent units of measurement, and 4 records were pending supplementation due to missing caliber versions.

[0041] Alternatively, the receiving method can be to import departmental summary documents or receive data through government data interfaces. The data source criteria for statistical reports, tax invoicing, electricity load, project investment, enterprise operation, park operation, and consumption circulation data will still be used to match the indicator data constraint table and generate indicator data records.

[0042] S3. Based on the indicator arrival constraint table and indicator arrival records, determine the arrival, absence, late arrival, supplementary reporting, revision, change in scope, abnormal fluctuation, and pending write-back status of each indicator. Specific implementation method: After the regional economic analysis system completes the recording of indicators, it retrieves the indicator data constraint table from the basic rule base according to the target region and analysis period, and retrieves the corresponding indicator data records from the data record base. The data analysis seat of the regional economic operation dispatch center performs the status determination, and the effective period is from the cutoff time of the current analysis period to before the analysis sample is generated.

[0043] The system first compares the indicator number, source department, statistical period, expected arrival time, allowable delay time, and statistical version in the indicator arrival constraint table with the indicator number, source department, statistical period, actual arrival time, data batch, statistical version, and data value in the indicator arrival record item by item. The comparison order is as follows: first confirm the indicator number and target area, then confirm the analysis period and statistical period, then confirm the source department and statistical version, and finally compare the actual arrival time with the expected arrival time and allowable delay time.

[0044] The "Received" status is formed when the indicator's arrival record exists, the source department is consistent, the statistical period is consistent, the caliber version is consistent, and the actual arrival time does not exceed the expected arrival time plus the allowed delay time. It records the actual arrival time, data batch, and data value. The "Not Received" status is formed when the corresponding indicator exists in the indicator arrival constraint table, but no matching indicator arrival record has been obtained by the cutoff time. The system only registers the missing indicator number, source department, statistical period, and caliber version, without automatically adding data values. The "Late" status is formed when the indicator's arrival record exists and the actual arrival time is later than the expected arrival time plus the allowed delay time, retaining the late duration and the corresponding data batch. The "Supplementary Report" status is formed when a previous batch of indicator arrival records already exists for the same indicator and the same assessment period, and a new batch confirmed by the source department is subsequently received. The system registers the supplementary report source according to the data batch order, without overwriting the previous batch record. The "Revision" status is formed when, under the same indicator, the same assessment period, the same source department, and the same caliber version, the new batch data value replaces the previous batch data value. The system simultaneously... The system retains the data values ​​before and after the revision, as well as the batch from which the revision originated. A change in caliber status occurs when the caliber version in the indicator arrival record differs from the caliber version locked in the indicator arrival constraint table. The system registers the source caliber version and the constraint caliber version, but does not rewrite the record as "arrived." An abnormal fluctuation status occurs after a data value has been recorded. This data value is compared with the previous assessment period value, historical values ​​from the same period, and related indicator values ​​confirmed by the same source department. An abnormal fluctuation status is formed when the value exceeds a preset fluctuation boundary. This boundary is pre-registered by business personnel in the supplementary rules of the indicator arrival constraint table based on historical distribution and departmental review rules. An abnormal fluctuation status is not formed when historical values ​​from the same period or related indicator values ​​are missing; the record is transferred to a pending verification record. A pending write-back status occurs when an indicator has already reached a "not arrived," "late," "supplementary," "revision," "caliber change," or "abnormal fluctuation" status, and the indicator may still receive an official, supplementary, or revised value after the current assessment period. The system registers the pending write-back identifier and the corresponding indicator arrival record number.

[0045] The above statuses are added to the indicator assessment status table with the indicator number, target area, assessment period, status formation time, and status type. When the same indicator has multiple statuses, the status chain is retained according to the formation time. When a new status is not needed, it overwrites the previously generated status. If any key field such as indicator number, source department, statistical period, or statistical version cannot be compared, the status assessment of that indicator will be stopped and it will be transferred to the list to be supplemented. This will not affect the continued assessment of other indicators in the same batch.

[0046] Preferably, the cutoff time can be set to 18:00 on the assessment day, the allowable delay time can be taken from the indicator arrival constraint table, and the abnormal fluctuation boundary can be set to a deviation of 30% relative to the historical same period or a deviation in the same direction for two consecutive assessment periods. In the monthly assessment of a certain district in May 2026, the system retrieved 58 valid indicator constraints and 286 indicator arrival records, forming 49 arrival status, 5 arrival status, 3 late status, 4 supplementary reporting status, 2 revision status, 1 change in scope status, 6 abnormal fluctuation status, and 15 pending write-back status. Among them, 1 industrial electricity consumption was in a late status because the actual arrival time was 2 hours later than the allowable delay time, and 1 fixed asset investment was in a revision status because the new batch replaced the previous batch value.

[0047] Alternatively, the status determination can be triggered periodically by the rule table or manually by business personnel at the cutoff point, and the status of each indicator is still determined by comparing the fields of the indicator-to-data constraint table and the indicator-to-data record.

[0048] S4. Generate the current assessment sample version based on the assessment status, and form a temporary substitute value, confidence flag, supplementary reporting difference field, revised difference field, caliber isolation flag, and pending write-back key. Specific implementation method: After the indicator assessment status table is formed, the regional economic assessment system retrieves the assessment status, indicator arrival records, and indicator arrival constraint tables of each indicator according to the target region and assessment period, forming the current assessment sample version. The period of effect is from the completion of the status determination to the generation of the trend prediction record.

[0049] The current analysis sample version is registered according to the target area, analysis period, sample generation time, and version number. The system first reads the analysis status item by item according to the indicator number, and then organizes the usable records of the same indicator in the order of status chain: arrived, not arrived, late, supplementary report, revision, change in caliber, abnormal fluctuation, and pending write-back. For indicators in the arrived status, the data value and unit of measurement in the indicator arrival record consistent with the indicator arrival constraint table are written into the current analysis sample version. For indicators in the not arrived status, a temporary substitute value is formed. The temporary substitute value is selected from the data value of the previous analysis period of the same indicator in the same target area, the historical data value of the same period, and the change direction of the arrived related indicators in the same industry. The selection order is based on the substitute source pre-registered in the indicator arrival constraint table. If no substitute source is registered, no temporary substitute value is formed, and the indicator is written into the sample item to be supplemented. The temporary substitute value must not change the original indicator unit of measurement and must not be manually entered into the economic value. When it is formed, the substitute source, the time of substitution formation, and the basis for substitution are recorded at the same time.

[0050] Confidence markers are formed along with temporary replacement values. Confidence markers are registered as high, medium, or low based on the integrity of the replacement source, availability within the same historical period, and consistency of related indicators. For example, a high confidence marker is registered when the data is continuously available within the same historical period and the direction of related indicators is consistent; a low confidence marker is registered when only data values ​​from the previous assessment period are available. For supplementary reporting status indicators, the system reads the data values ​​from the previous batch and the supplementary reporting batch to form a supplementary reporting difference field. This field registers the data value before supplementary reporting, the data value after supplementary reporting, the difference value, the direction of the difference, and the supplementary reporting batch, without overwriting the sample items from the previous batch. For revised status indicators, the system reads the data value before revision and the data value after revision. For data change indicators, a revision difference field is generated, which records the data value before revision, the data value after revision, the difference value, the revision source batch, and the revision formation time. For caliber change status indicators, a caliber isolation mark is generated, which records the constraint caliber version, the source caliber version, and the isolation reason. This indicator is still included in the current assessment sample version, but is not merged with the old caliber sample item. For pending write-back status indicators, a pending write-back key is generated. The pending write-back key consists of the target area, assessment period, indicator number, sample version number, status formation time, and indicator arrival record number, which is used to locate the current sample item when subsequent official values, supplementary values, and revised values ​​arrive.

[0051] The current assessment sample version is added to the sample version library in an append-only manner, and old versions must not be overwritten. When the same target area, assessment period, and sample generation time are submitted repeatedly, the existing sample version number is returned. If the same indicator has both a change in scope and a revision status, a scope isolation mark is first formed, and then a revision difference field is formed to ensure that the revision difference is not calculated across scopes. If the temporary substitute value lacks a substitute source, the supplementary batch lacks the data value of the previous batch, or the revision record lacks the data value before the revision, then the indicator will not be written into the usable sample items and will be transferred to the sample items to be verified. Other indicators in the same batch will continue to form the current assessment sample version.

[0052] Preferably, in the monthly assessment of a certain district / county in May 2026, the system assesses the status of 58 indicators to form sample version 20260501. Among them, 49 indicators that have arrived are directly written, 3 of the 5 indicators that have not arrived form temporary substitute values, 2 are included in the sample items to be supplemented, 4 indicators that have been supplemented form supplementary reporting difference fields, 2 indicators that have been revised form revision difference fields, 1 indicator that has changed the scope form a scope isolation mark, and 15 indicators that have been written back generate write-back keys. Among them, the indicator of industrial output value that has not arrived uses the data value of the previous assessment period and the direction of change of industrial electricity consumption to form a temporary substitute value, and the confidence mark is registered as medium.

[0053] Alternatively, the current assessment sample version can be stored in a relational table, columnar table, or searchable document table, but temporary substitute values, confidence flags, supplementary difference fields, revised difference fields, caliber isolation flags, and write-back keys are still generated according to the assessment status.

[0054] S5. Generate regional economic trend forecast records based on the current analysis sample version, and bind the sample version number, indicator status, value type, contribution direction, and contribution intensity. Specific implementation method: After the current analysis sample version is written into the sample version library, the regional economic analysis system reads the current analysis sample version according to the target region and analysis period, and generates a regional economic trend forecast record accordingly. The period of effect is from the confirmation of the analysis sample version to the submission of the analysis results.

[0055] The system first confirms the sample version number, target area, analysis period, and sample item completeness of the current analysis sample version. Sample item completeness is based on the existence of indicator number, adopted value, unit of measurement, indicator status, and adopted value type. Indicators that lack adopted values ​​but have been registered as sample items to be supplemented will not participate in the formation of this regional economic trend forecast record, but will still be retained in the sample version.

[0056] The value type is registered according to the source identity in the current analysis sample version, including one of the following: original value, temporary substitute value, supplementary value, revised value, and caliber isolation value. When the same indicator has both supplementary difference field and revised difference field, the value type registered is the latest one formed in the sample version and has not been isolated, without changing the supplementary difference field and the revised difference field itself.

[0057] The system then organizes the sample items according to the industry, statistical period, and unit of measurement of the indicator. The unit of measurement is the same as the current version of the analysis sample, and no unit conversion is performed in this step. For indicators with caliber isolation marks, they only participate in trend formation within the same caliber version and are not merged with old caliber sample items.

[0058] The regional economic trend forecast record is based on the adopted values ​​in the current analysis sample version. The record content includes at least the target region, analysis period, sample version number, formation time, set of participating indicators, trend direction, and basis for trend formation. The trend direction is organized into one of the following: upward, downward, or flat, according to the change relationship of the participating indicators relative to the previous analysis period, the same historical period, and the number of indicators in the industry. Indicators for which a comparable period cannot be obtained are only registered as participating indicators and do not determine the trend direction independently.

[0059] After generating the regional economic trend forecast record, the system binds the regional economic trend forecast record with the sample version number, so that subsequent queries can locate the current analysis sample version used to form this trend; at the same time, the indicator status of each participating indicator is written into the details of the trend forecast record. The indicator status uses the status of arrived, not arrived, late, supplementary report, revision, change of scope, abnormal fluctuation, and pending write-back formed in the previous step, without renaming.

[0060] The direction of contribution is registered according to the relationship between the value of a single indicator and the direction of the regional economic trend, whether it is in the same direction, opposite direction, or equal. When it is formed, the change direction of the value of the indicator is compared with the direction of the regional economic trend. The intensity of contribution is registered as high, medium, or low according to the weight, change range, and value type of the indicator in the same industry. The intensity of contribution of temporary substitute values ​​cannot be registered as high. The contribution intensity of the caliber isolation value is only formed within the same caliber.

[0061] Regional economic trend forecast records and details are added to the trend record database, and old records cannot be overwritten. When the same target region, the same analysis period, and the same sample version number are submitted repeatedly, the existing trend forecast record number is returned. If the sample version number is different, a new regional economic trend forecast record is generated.

[0062] If, during the formation process, it is found that the sample version number is missing, the set of participating indicators is empty, or the key indicators are all sample items to be added, the system will not generate a regional economic trend forecast record and will record the reason for the failure to form the record. Other target regions in the same batch will not be affected.

[0063] Preferably, in the monthly assessment of a certain district / county in May 2026, the system reads sample version 20260501, with 53 participating indicators, including 49 original values, 3 temporary substitute values, and 1 caliber isolation value, forming 1 record of regional economic trend forecast, with the trend direction registered as downward; industrial electricity consumption is in the "received" state, using the original value type, with the contribution direction in the same direction and the contribution intensity as high; industrial output value is in the "not yet received" state, using the temporary substitute value type, with the contribution direction in the same direction and the contribution intensity as medium; fixed asset investment is in the "revised" state, using the revised value type, with the contribution direction in the opposite direction and the contribution intensity as low.

[0064] Alternatively, regional economic trend forecast records can be generated through rule calculation services, database batch tasks, or system submissions after manual confirmation. However, these records are still generated based on the current analysis sample version and are bound to the sample version number, indicator status, adopted value type, contribution direction, and contribution intensity.

[0065] S6. When the official value, supplementary value, or revised value arrives, a deviation record is generated based on the write-back key. The indicator judgment status, anomaly attribution results, surrogate value reliability, and next cycle arrival constraint table are written back. Specific implementation method: After the regional economic trend forecast record is generated, the regional economic analysis system continues to monitor subsequent data batches entering the same target region and within the same analysis period. When the official value, supplementary value, or revised value arrives, the data analysis unit reads its indicator number, source department, statistical period, actual arrival time, data value, unit of measurement, data batch, and caliber version from the data record library and matches them with the pending write-back key already generated in the sample version library.

[0066] The official value is the data value that the source department confirms can be used as the final data value for the assessment period. It usually comes from the final version of the statistical report, the department's confirmed summary table, or the stamped ledger. The supplementary value is the data value that the source department adds to the report after the previous batch. The revised value is the data value that the source department replaces the existing data values ​​under the same indicator, the same assessment period, and the same caliber version.

[0067] The system locates the previous analysis sample version based on the target area, analysis period, indicator number, sample version number, status formation time and indicator arrival record number in the write-back key, and reads the previous adopted value, adopted value type, indicator status, temporary substitute value, supplementary reporting difference field, revised difference field, caliber isolation mark and corresponding regional economic trend forecast record in the sample item; if the write-back key cannot locate the sample version number or indicator arrival record number, only the newly arrived data batch is retained and no deviation record is generated.

[0068] Deviation records are generated by comparing previously adopted values ​​with official, supplementary, or revised values ​​under the same unit of measurement. The record content includes the key to be written back, previously adopted value, arrival data value, arrival data type, deviation value, deviation direction, deviation ratio, original indicator assessment status, corresponding sample version number, and corresponding trend prediction record number. If the units of measurement are inconsistent, the caliber versions are inconsistent, and there is no caliber isolation mark, the deviation value is not calculated and is transferred to the record to be verified.

[0069] After a deviation record is generated, the system writes back the indicator assessment status according to the deviation record: when the official value fills the missing number status, the indicator assessment status is added to the received number status; when the supplementary report value corresponds to the previous supplementary report status, a supplementary report confirmation record is added; when the revised value corresponds to the previous revision status, a revision confirmation record is added; when the caliber is still inconsistent, the caliber change status is retained and it is not forcibly rewritten to the received number status.

[0070] Subsequently, the anomaly attribution results are written back. If the abnormal fluctuation status still exceeds the original fluctuation boundary after the official value, supplementary value, or revised value is reached, the anomaly attribution result is registered as data fluctuation continuation; if the previous abnormal fluctuation is offset by the revised value, the anomaly attribution result is registered as revision impact; if the incomparability is caused by differences in the caliber version, the anomaly attribution result is registered as caliber change impact.

[0071] For sample items that use temporary substitute values, the system writes back the reliability of the substitute values ​​based on the deviation record. When the deviation ratio is within the preset allowable range, it is registered as reliable; when it exceeds the preset allowable range, it is registered as unreliable; when it cannot be compared, it is registered as pending verification. This reliability only applies to the same indicator, the same target area, and the same version of the caliber.

[0072] Finally, based on the indicator analysis status after the write-back, the anomaly attribution results, and the credibility of the substitution values, the system revises the allowable delay time, the available markers for substitution sources, and the effective boundary of the caliber version in the next cycle's data constraint table, forming a revision record for the next cycle's data constraint table. Old versions are not overwritten, and new versions are added and saved according to the effective cycle.

[0073] Preferably, the allowable deviation ratio can be set to 10%, and when the same indicator is reported for two consecutive assessment cycles, the allowable delay time for the next cycle will be extended by 6 hours. In the monthly assessment of a certain district in May 2026, the official value of industrial output arrived at 10:00 on June 6. The pending write-back key locates the sample version 20260501. The previous temporary replacement value was 1,250 million yuan, the official value was 1,190 million yuan, the deviation value was -60 million yuan, the deviation ratio was 4.8%, and the reliability of the replacement value was registered as reliable. The revised value of fixed asset investment changed from 830 million yuan to 760 million yuan, the deviation ratio was 8.4%, the abnormal attribution result changed from abnormal fluctuation to revision impact, and the revision record of the next cycle's arrival constraint table was generated.

[0074] Alternatively, the write-back action can be triggered by a scheduled task or by business personnel after the official value batch is confirmed. However, deviation records are still generated based on the write-back key, and the indicator judgment status, abnormal attribution results, surrogate value credibility, and next cycle data constraint table are written back.

[0075] In the operational scenario shown in this embodiment: The economic operation dispatch center of a certain district / county plans to conduct a monthly assessment of the regional economic operation in May 2026. The regional economic assessment system first uses the data filing position to lock the target area as the range corresponding to the administrative division code of the district / county. The assessment period is May 2026. The list of regional economic indicators includes 60 indicators such as industrial electricity consumption, industrial output value above designated size, tax invoice amount, fixed asset investment completion amount, investment progress of key projects, number of enterprises put into operation in the park, social consumer goods sales, and passenger flow.

[0076] The system registers the source department, statistical period, expected time, allowable delay time and statistical version for each item based on the source directory confirmed by the statistics department, tax department, power company, development and reform department, industry and information technology department, park management agency and commerce department, forming an indicator data constraint table. Among them, the statistical period for industrial electricity consumption is daily, the expected time is 10:00 on the next day, the allowable delay time is 6 hours, and the statistical version is the Electricity Daily Report Template 2026; the statistical period for fixed asset investment completion amount is monthly, the expected time is 18:00 on the 5th of the following month, the allowable delay time is 24 hours, and the statistical version is the Investment Monthly Report 2026.

[0077] After entering the data processing period in May, the system successively received 12 statistical reports, 3 tax invoice summaries, 31 daily electricity load reports, 1 project investment ledger, 4 enterprise operation ledgers, 2 park operation ledgers, and 2 consumption and circulation summary tables. The system matched the indicator data constraint table according to the target area, analysis period, indicator number, source department, statistical period, and statistical version, forming 286 indicator data records. Among them, 9 records were transferred to pending verification due to inconsistencies between the unit of measurement and the constraint table, 4 records were transferred to pending supplementation due to missing statistical versions, and the other records were added to the data record database.

[0078] By 18:00 on June 5, 2026, the system retrieved 58 valid indicator constraints and corresponding indicator arrival records for status determination, resulting in 49 arrival statuses, 5 arrival statuses, 3 late statuses, 4 supplementary reporting statuses, 2 revision statuses, 1 status of change in scope, 6 statuses of abnormal fluctuations, and 15 statuses of pending write-back. For example, industrial electricity consumption was registered as late because the actual arrival time of some daily reports was 2 hours later than the allowed delay time; fixed asset investment completion amount was registered as revision status because a new batch of ledgers replaced the data value of the previous batch; and a certain consumption circulation indicator was registered as change in scope because the source scope version was inconsistent with the version locked in the constraint table.

[0079] Subsequently, based on the above assessment status, the system generated the current assessment sample version 20260501. The original values ​​were directly used for the 49 indicators that had arrived. Among the 5 indicators that had not arrived, 3 had temporary substitute values ​​formed based on the data values ​​of the previous assessment period, the historical data values ​​of the same period, and the related indicators of the indicators that had arrived in the same industry. 2 were included in the sample items to be supplemented because there was no substitute source. The supplementary reporting status indicators formed a supplementary reporting difference field, the revision status indicators formed a revision difference field, the caliber change status indicator formed a caliber isolation mark, and the pending write-back status indicators generated pending write-back keys.

[0080] Taking the industrial output value of enterprises above designated size as an example, since no formal statistical report was obtained for this indicator at the cutoff time, the system uses the industrial output value data value of the previous assessment period and combines it with the year-on-year decline in industrial electricity consumption to form a temporary substitute value of 125 million yuan. The confidence mark is registered as medium, and a write-back key is generated so that the sample item can be located after the formal value arrives.

[0081] The system generates regional economic trend forecast records based on sample version 20260501, with 53 participating indicators, including 49 original values, 3 temporary substitute values, and 1 caliber-isolated value. The trend direction is registered as downward. Industrial electricity consumption is in the "received" state, using the original value type, with the contribution direction in the same direction and the contribution intensity as high. The output value of industrial enterprises above designated size is in the "not yet received" state, using the temporary substitute value type, with the contribution direction in the same direction and the contribution intensity as medium. The completed amount of fixed asset investment is in the "revised" state, using the revised value type, with the contribution direction in the opposite direction and the contribution intensity as low.

[0082] At 10:00 AM on June 6, 2026, the finalized document from the statistics department arrived, with the official value of industrial output above designated size being 1,190 million yuan. Based on the pending write-back key, the system located the previous temporary substitute value of 1,250 million yuan in sample version 20260501, generated a deviation record, and the deviation value was -60 million yuan, with a deviation ratio of 4.8%. Since this deviation ratio was within the preset allowable range of 10%, the system wrote back the credibility of the temporary substitute value as credible and added the indicator's assessment status to the "arrived" status.

[0083] Subsequently, the Development and Reform Commission submitted a revised value for the completed fixed asset investment, revising the previous figure of 830 million yuan to 760 million yuan. The system generated a corresponding deviation record with a deviation rate of 8.4%, and changed the attribution result of the previous abnormal fluctuation from data fluctuation continuation to the impact of the revision.

[0084] After completing the above write-back, the system will generate additional revision records for the next cycle's data constraint table based on the reliability of the substitute value of industrial output above designated size, the impact of revisions on the completed amount of fixed asset investment, and the continuous supplementary reporting of some indicators. The system will update the available markers of the substitute sources of relevant indicators, the allowable delay time, and the effective boundary of the caliber version. The old version constraint records will be retained without being overwritten.

[0085] Through this process, the system completes the establishment of the indicator-to-data constraint table, the generation of indicator-to-data records, the determination of indicator assessment status, the formation of the current assessment sample version, the generation of regional economic trend forecast records, and the write-back of deviations after subsequent data arrival within a complete monthly assessment cycle. This enables subsequent assessments to trace the specific status, value type, and contribution basis of each indicator during forecasting.

[0086] The above description is merely a specific embodiment of this application, but the scope of protection of this application is not limited thereto. Any variations or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the scope of the technology disclosed in this application should be included within the scope of protection of this application. Therefore, the scope of protection of this application should be determined by the scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic analysis and trend forecasting of regional economic data, characterized in that, include: S1. Identify the target region, analysis period, and list of regional economic indicators. Based on the source department, statistical period, expected time, allowable delay time, and version of the statistical caliber, establish an indicator arrival constraint table. S2: Receive statistical reports, tax invoices, electricity load, project investment, enterprise operation, park operation, and consumption circulation data; match the indicator to data constraint table; and generate indicator to data records. S3. Based on the indicator arrival constraint table and indicator arrival record, determine the arrival, absence, late arrival, supplementary reporting, revision, change in scope, abnormal fluctuation, and pending write-back status of each indicator; S4. Generate the current assessment sample version based on the assessment status, and form temporary substitute values, confidence flags, supplementary reporting difference fields, revised difference fields, caliber isolation flags, and write-back keys; S5. Generate a regional economic trend forecast record based on the current analysis sample version, and bind the sample version number, indicator status, value type adopted, contribution direction and contribution intensity; S6. When the official value, supplementary value, or revised value arrives, generate a deviation record based on the key to be written back, and write back the indicator judgment status, abnormal attribution results, reliability of substitute values, and the data constraint table for the next cycle.

2. The method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data according to claim 1, characterized in that, S1 includes: When establishing the indicator-to-data constraint table, the target area is determined by one of the following area identifiers: administrative division code, park code, and development zone code. The analysis period is recorded as one statistical time period: day, week, month, or quarter. The list of regional economic indicators is sorted by target region, analysis period, and indicator number. The system generates a table creation key based on the target region, analysis period, indicator number, source department, statistical period, and statistical version, and then appends the indicator to the data constraint table according to the table creation key.

3. The method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data according to claim 1, characterized in that, S2 include: When generating the indicator arrival record, first register the original receipt record according to the source document number, submission time and batch number; Then merge them according to the target area and align them according to the assessment cycle; Subsequently, the target area, analysis period, and indicator number are used as the main matching items, and the source department, statistical period, and statistical version are used as the consistency confirmation items to match the indicator to the data constraint table. Upon successful matching, an indicator arrival record is generated, which includes the actual arrival time, data value, unit of measurement, source file number, data batch, caliber version, and original receiving record number.

4. The method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data according to claim 1, characterized in that, S3 include: When determining the assessment status of each indicator, first compare the indicator number, source department, statistical period, expected arrival time, allowable delay time and caliber version in the indicator arrival constraint table with the indicator number, source department, statistical period, actual arrival time, data batch, caliber version and data value in the indicator arrival record; Based on the actual arrival time, the expected arrival time, and the allowed delay time, the system generates three statuses: arrived, not arrived, and late.

5. The method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data according to claim 4, characterized in that, S3 also includes: After the arrival status, absence status, and late status are established, a supplementary reporting status is formed based on the order of data batches within the same assessment period for the same indicator. The revision status is determined based on the replacement relationship between the new batch of data values ​​and the previous batch of data values; The inconsistency in the different versions of the caliber leads to a change in the caliber status; Abnormal fluctuations are identified by comparing data values ​​with historical values ​​for the same period and values ​​of related indicators. The indicators for subsequent receipt of official values, supplementary reports, and revised values ​​will be in a pending write-back state.

6. The method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data according to claim 1, characterized in that, S4 includes: When generating the current analysis sample version, register it according to the target area, analysis period, sample generation time and version number; Read the assessment status according to the indicator number, and organize the usable records of the same indicator according to the status chain; The status indicator of the number of items reached is written with the data value and unit of measurement; The status indicator of the missing number is based on the pre-registered alternative source to form a temporary alternative value, and the alternative source, the time of alternative formation, the basis for alternative and the confidence mark are registered.

7. The method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data according to claim 6, characterized in that, S4 also includes: In the current version of the analysis sample, the supplementary reporting status indicator is based on the data values ​​of the previous batch and the data values ​​of the supplementary reporting batch to form a supplementary reporting difference field; The revised status indicator forms a revision difference field based on the data values ​​before and after the revision. The caliber change status index forms the caliber isolation mark; The pending write-back status indicator generates a pending write-back key based on the target area, analysis period, indicator number, sample version number, status formation time, and indicator arrival record number.

8. The method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data according to claim 1, characterized in that, S5 include: When generating regional economic trend forecast records, read the current analysis sample version and confirm the sample version number, target area, analysis period, and sample item completeness; Sample items with indicator number, adopted value, unit of measurement, indicator status, and adopted value type will be included in the set of participating indicators. The trend direction is formed based on the changing relationship of the participating indicators, and the sample version number, indicator status, value type, contribution direction and contribution intensity are written in the details.

9. The method for dynamic analysis and trend prediction of regional economic data according to claim 1, characterized in that, S6 include: When generating deviation records, the previous analysis sample version is located based on the target area, analysis period, indicator number, sample version number, status formation time and indicator number in the key to be written back; Compare the values ​​used in the early stage with the values ​​of the arrived data under the same unit of measurement to form a deviation record that includes the deviation value, deviation direction, deviation ratio, original indicator judgment status, corresponding sample version number and corresponding trend prediction record number; Based on the deviation records, the indicators are rewritten to determine the status, the results of the abnormal attribution, the reliability of the substitute values, and the constraint table for the next period.

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