Method for forecasting waterway freight volume

Abstract

The present invention provides a method for forecasting waterway freight volume, falling with the technical field of forecasting waterway freight volume. The present invention constructs historical water level samples including a historical monthly water level sequence, a historical matching water level sequence, and a neighborhood historical multi-day water level sequence. Secondly, a water level forecasting model is used to process these samples, and a preliminary water level estimation value is obtained. Considering future rainfall and temperature forecast, the water level change forecasting model is configured to calculate the water level change. Combining the current water level and the forecasted water level change, the water level estimation value II is obtained, and an average of the two estimated values is taken as a final forecasted water level. Finally, a corresponding waterway freight volume is searched according to the forecasted water level. By comprehensively considering historical data, current situation and future weather forecast, the present invention improves the accuracy of waterway freight volume forecast.

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