Train operation scheduling estimation device and train operation scheduling estimation method

Abstract

To develop a technology that can estimate actual train schedule adjustments based on past timetables. [Solution] An initial provisional timetable is set based on the planned timetable. Changes in the actual timetable relative to the provisional timetable are searched chronologically and extracted as arrangement candidates. A predicted timetable is created by applying the changes related to the arrangement candidates to the provisional timetable and updating it as a new preliminary timetable. This process is repeated until predetermined termination conditions are met. Based on the sequence of arrangement candidates and the arrangements related to those arrangement candidates, the operation adjustment arrangements, which indicate the order and content of the arrangements related to operation adjustments, are estimated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a driving arrangement estimation device and the like.

Background Art

[0002] In order to achieve quick and efficient driving arrangements, it is important to consider the order and content of the driving arrangements. However, in many cases, the history of the specific driving arrangements made is not saved. On the other hand, a technique for analyzing the rules of driving arrangements from the实绩 diagrams with and without driving arrangements is known (for example, Patent Document 1).

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] According to the technique of Patent Document 1, it is possible to extract the rules of operation changes that have changed over time, but it is not possible to estimate the content and order of the driving arrangements specifically made.

[0005] The problem to be solved by the present invention is to realize a technique capable of estimating the driving arrangements actually made from the实绩 diagrams.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] A first invention for solving the above problems is a driving arrangement estimation device that estimates a driving arrangement indicating the order and content of the arrangements related to driving based on a given planned diagram and a given实绩 diagram after driving arrangement, initial setting means (for example, the initial setting unit 202 in FIG. 4) for setting an initial temporary diagram based on the planned diagram, An extraction means (for example, the arrangement candidate extraction unit 206 in Figure 4) searches for changes in the actual timetable relative to the provisional timetable in chronological order and extracts them as arrangement candidates, An update means (for example, the update unit 208 in Figure 4) creates a predicted timetable by applying the changes related to the proposed arrangements to the provisional timetable and updates it as the new provisional timetable, Control means (for example, the processing unit 200 in Figure 4) that causes the extraction means and the update means to function repeatedly until a predetermined termination condition is met, This is an operation adjustment arrangement estimation device that includes the following and estimates the operation adjustment arrangement based on the sequence of arrangement candidates and the arrangements related to those arrangement candidates.

[0007] Other inventions include, A method for estimating train operation arrangements, in which a computer system estimates train operation arrangements that indicate the order and content of arrangements related to train operation adjustments, based on a given planned timetable and a given actual timetable after train operation adjustments, An initial setup step to set an initial provisional timetable based on the aforementioned planned timetable, A repetitive control step that repeatedly performs the following until a predetermined termination condition is met: searching for changes in the actual timetable against the provisional timetable in chronological order and extracting them as arrangement candidates; creating a predicted timetable by applying the changes related to the arrangement candidates to the provisional timetable and updating it as the new provisional timetable; A method for estimating the operation adjustment arrangement may be configured that includes the sequence of arrangement candidates and estimates the operation adjustment arrangement based on the arrangements related to those arrangement candidates.

[0008] According to the first invention, etc., by repeatedly extracting changes from the actual timetable to the planned timetable as potential arrangements, and updating the predicted timetable with the changes related to the extracted potential arrangements as a new provisional timetable, it becomes possible to estimate the actual operational adjustments made based on the extracted potential arrangements from the actual timetable.

[0009] The second invention is, in the above invention, The control means performs the repetition control with the termination condition being that the extraction means no longer extracts the modified portion. This is a device for estimating train operation scheduling and arrangements.

[0010] According to the second invention, by setting the termination condition as the point at which no more changes are extracted, it becomes possible to estimate train schedule adjustments that will match or nearly match the actual schedule.

[0011] The third invention is, in the above invention, A means for extracting sections where service is suspended by comparing the planned timetable with the actual timetable (for example, the section extraction unit 204 in Figure 4), Furthermore, The initial setting means sets the initial provisional timetable by applying the suspended section to the planned timetable. This is a device for estimating train operation scheduling and arrangements.

[0012] According to the third invention, it becomes possible to estimate the arrangements for adjusting train operations, including service suspensions.

[0013] The fourth invention is, in the above invention, The aforementioned planned timetable, the aforementioned actual timetable, and the aforementioned provisional timetable include information on the tracks used by each train between stations. The extraction means extracts as candidate arrangements locations the track used for the same train between the same stations differs in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable, including the locations of the changes. This is a device for estimating train operation scheduling and arrangements.

[0014] According to the fourth invention, it becomes possible to estimate operational adjustment arrangements, including arrangements related to changes in the railway lines used.

[0015] The fifth invention is, in the above invention, The extraction means includes, as the change locations, the locations where the difference in running time between the same stations of the same train in the actual diagram with respect to the provisional diagram satisfies a predetermined large running difference condition, and the locations where the difference in stop time of the same train at the same station satisfies a predetermined large stop difference condition, and extracts them as the arrangement candidates. It is an operation arrangement estimation device.

[0016] According to the fifth invention, locations of trains and stations where there is a large difference in running time compared to normal, and locations of trains and stations where there is a large difference in stop time compared to normal can be used as arrangement candidates. According to this, the former can be arranged to delay the entry into the station yard of the station, and the latter can be arranged to delay the departure from the station, that is, it becomes possible to estimate an operation arrangement including arrangements related to changes in arrival and departure times.

[0017] The sixth invention is in the above-mentioned invention, The planned diagram, the actual diagram, and the provisional diagram include information on the arrival and departure tracks of each station of each train. The extraction means includes, as the change locations, the locations where the arrival and departure tracks of the same train at the same station in the actual diagram with respect to the provisional diagram are different, and extracts them as the arrangement candidates. It is an operation arrangement estimation device.

[0018] According to the sixth invention, it becomes possible to estimate an operation arrangement including arrangements related to changes in arrival and departure tracks of stations.

[0019] The seventh invention is in the above-mentioned invention, The planned diagram, the actual diagram, and the provisional diagram include information on vehicle operations of each train. The extraction means includes, as the change locations, the locations where the vehicle operations of the same train in the actual diagram with respect to the provisional diagram are different, and extracts them as the arrangement candidates. It is an operation arrangement estimation device.

[0020] According to the seventh invention, it becomes possible to estimate an operation arrangement including arrangements related to changes in vehicle operations.

Brief Explanation of Drawings

[0021] [Figure 1] A schematic diagram illustrating the estimated arrangements for train operations. [Figure 2] An example of an order relationship. [Figure 3] Examples of changes related to the proposed arrangements. [Figure 4] An example of the functional configuration of a train operation scheduling estimation device. [Figure 5] Flowchart for the process of estimating train schedule arrangements. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0022] Preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. However, the applicable forms of the present invention are not limited to the embodiments described below. Furthermore, in the drawings, the same elements are denoted by the same reference numerals.

[0023] [overview] Figure 1 shows an overview of the estimation of train schedule adjustments in this embodiment. As shown in Figure 1, the planned timetable for the target day and the actual timetable after train schedule adjustments are given. Based on this planned timetable and actual timetable, the train schedule adjustments, which show the order and content of each adjustment that was actually made, are estimated.

[0024] First, the planned timetable is initially set as the provisional timetable. Next, the provisional timetable is compared with the actual timetable, and changes in the actual timetable relative to the provisional timetable are searched chronologically, and the single change with the earliest time is extracted as a candidate for arrangement. Subsequently, a predicted timetable is created by applying the changes related to the extracted candidate arrangement to the provisional timetable, and the created predicted timetable is updated as the new provisional timetable. This extraction of candidate arrangements and updating of the provisional timetable is repeated until no more changes are extracted. In this way, one change from the actual timetable relative to the provisional timetable is extracted as a candidate arrangement in chronological order and reflected in the provisional timetable, and the provisional timetable is updated, and this is repeated until the provisional timetable matches or nearly matches the actual timetable. Matching or nearly matching the provisional timetable means that no more changes are extracted. Even if there are differences between the provisional timetable and the actual timetable, if the differences are not significant enough to be called changes (for example, if the travel time between the same stations for the same train is slightly different), it can be said that they match or nearly match. Then, based on the set of extracted candidate arrangements, the operational adjustment arrangements are estimated.

[0025] [Wanted Candidate] In this embodiment, the proposed arrangements include cancellations, changes in departure order, changes in arrival and departure times, and changes in platform numbers.

[0026] A service suspension is the cancellation of train operations in whole or in part. Service suspensions are identified as combinations of trains and sections where there is no actual timetable corresponding to the planned timetable. Furthermore, since the timing of the suspension is unknown, it is assumed that all suspensions were implemented at the beginning of the operational adjustment process. Therefore, when extracting candidate arrangements, first, the planned timetable and the actual timetable are compared to extract all suspended sections. Next, a timetable is created by applying each extracted suspended section to the planned timetable, and this timetable is set as the initial provisional timetable. After that, the provisional timetable and the actual timetable are compared to extract one candidate arrangement other than suspensions (changes in departure order, changes in arrival and departure times, and changes in track number) in chronological order, and the predicted timetable with the changes related to the extracted candidate arrangement applied to the provisional timetable is updated as the new provisional timetable. This process is repeated.

[0027] A change in departure order refers to a change in the departure order of trains going in the same direction at a station. Changes in departure order are identified as locations where the order of train use of inter-station tracks differs between the provisional timetable and the actual timetable (locations where the order of track use differs), and locations where the order of train use of station platforms differs between the provisional timetable and the actual timetable (locations where the order of platform use differs). Information regarding the inter-station tracks and arrival / departure platforms used by trains is included in the planned timetable and the actual timetable, and therefore is also included in the provisional timetable which is initially set based on the planned timetable.

[0028] The extraction of changes in departure order is performed by creating a sequence relationship. A sequence relationship is a list that arranges the order in which tracks are used between stations and the order in which tracks are used at stations according to the time in the timetable, for both the provisional timetable and the actual timetable. By comparing these sequence relationships for the provisional timetable and the actual timetable, the locations where the order has been changed are extracted.

[0029] Figure 2 shows an example of the sequential relationship regarding the order of use of the tracks between stations. In Figure 2, the upper part shows the sequential relationship for the provisional timetable, and the lower part shows the sequential relationship for the actual timetable. In both cases, trains that depart from "Station M" and use (travel on) "Track 2001" between stations are arranged according to their departure time from "Station M".

[0030] Comparing the sequential relationships shown in Figure 2, the changes in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable are that the departure time of train "3221M" has been changed from "17:40:00" to "20:00:00", and the usage order (running order) of "Track 2001" has been changed from the second to the fourth of the four trains shown in the figure. Therefore, this change in the departure order of train "3221M" from the second to the fourth is extracted as a candidate for arrangement.

[0031] Figure 3 shows an example of applying changes related to candidate train arrangements to a provisional timetable. Figure 3 shows an example of applying changes related to candidate train arrangements extracted in Figure 2 to the provisional timetable. As shown in Figure 3, train "2251M", which is one train before candidate train "3221M" in the actual timetable shown in Figure 2, is selected as the base train. Then, as shown in Figure 3, the departure time of train "3221M" to which the change is applied is changed to "19:20:00+Δt", which is the departure time of the base train "2251M" "19:20:00" plus a small time interval Δt, so that it departs next in the train order after the base train "2251M". The small time interval Δt is an arbitrary number of minutes that allows for a range of possible departure times for the train to which the change is applied, as long as the change in train order is achieved.

[0032] Similarly, the order of use for station tracks is also determined by the same system. Specifically, trains using the same track at the same station are arranged according to their arrival time at that station. Changes to the station's track usage order (arrival / departure order) are then extracted as potential arrangements. The application of changes to the extracted potential arrangements is also done similarly; the departure time is changed so that the train in question departs immediately following the reference train immediately preceding it. Information regarding the tracks to be used is included in the planned timetable and the actual timetable, and therefore is also included in the provisional timetable that is initially set based on the planned timetable.

[0033] A change in arrival and departure times refers to a change in the arrival or departure time of a train at a station. Changes in arrival and departure times are identified as locations that satisfy the condition of a significant difference in running time (locations with running delays), where the difference in running time between the same train and the same station in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable is greater than or equal to the prescribed time, and locations that satisfy the condition of a significant difference in stopping time (locations with stopping delays), where the difference in stopping time between the same train and the same station is greater than or equal to the prescribed time.

[0034] A track change refers to a change in the track number at which a train arrives or departs from a station. Track changes are identified as instances where the arrival and departure tracks for the same train at the same station differ between the provisional timetable and the actual timetable.

[0035] [Functional Configuration] Figure 4 shows an example of the functional configuration of the train operation scheduling estimation device 1. According to Figure 4, the train operation scheduling estimation device 1 is configured with an operation unit 102, a display unit 104, a communication unit 106, a processing unit 200, and a storage unit 300, and is implemented as a type of computer system. The train operation scheduling estimation device 1 may be implemented with a single computer, or it may be configured by connecting multiple computers.

[0036] The operation unit 102 is implemented by an input device such as a keyboard, mouse, touch panel, or various switches, and outputs an operation signal to the processing unit 200 according to the operation performed. The display unit 104 is implemented by a display device such as a liquid crystal display or touch panel, and displays various information based on the display signal from the processing unit 200. The communication unit 106 is a communication device implemented by a wireless communication module, router, modem, jack or control circuit for wired communication cables, etc., and connects to a given communication network to perform data communication with external devices.

[0037] The processing unit 200 is a processor implemented using arithmetic devices and circuits such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) or FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), and performs overall control of the operation scheduling estimation device 1 based on programs and data stored in the storage unit 300, input data from the operation unit 102 and the communication unit 106, etc.

[0038] Furthermore, the processing unit 200 executes the train operation adjustment arrangement estimation program 302 to perform a train operation adjustment arrangement estimation process (see Figure 5), which estimates the order and content of each arrangement related to train operation adjustment based on the planned timetable and the actual timetable after train operation adjustment. Functional processing blocks for this purpose include an initial setting unit 202, a service suspension section extraction unit 204, an arrangement candidate extraction unit 206, and an update unit 208. These functional units of the processing unit 200 can be implemented either in software by the processing unit 200 executing a program, or by a dedicated calculation circuit. In this embodiment, the former, software implementation, will be described.

[0039] The initial setup unit 202 sets an initial provisional timetable based on the planned timetable. For example, the initial provisional timetable is set by applying the sections where service is suspended to the planned timetable.

[0040] Specifically, the suspension section extraction unit 204 extracts suspension sections and applies them to the planned timetable to create a timetable in which no trains corresponding to the suspension sections exist in the planned timetable. This timetable is then set as a provisional timetable.

[0041] The service suspension extraction unit 204 extracts service suspensions by comparing the planned timetable with the actual timetable. Specifically, it compares the planned timetable with the actual timetable and extracts service suspensions that are combinations of trains and sections that do not exist in the actual timetable compared to the planned timetable.

[0042] The train scheduling candidate extraction unit 206 searches for changes in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable in chronological order and extracts them as train scheduling candidates. For example, it extracts train scheduling candidates that include changes in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable, where the same train uses different tracks between the same stations. It also extracts train scheduling candidates that include changes in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable, where the difference in travel time between the same station for the same train satisfies a predetermined large difference in travel time condition, and where the difference in stopping time at the same station for the same train satisfies a predetermined large difference in stopping time condition. Furthermore, it extracts train scheduling candidates that include changes in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable, where the arrival and departure tracks for the same train at the same station are different. Finally, it extracts train scheduling candidates that include changes in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable, where the train's vehicle operation differs.

[0043] Specifically, for both the provisional and actual timetables, a sequential relationship is created for the usage order of inter-station tracks, arranged according to the departure times of the stations between stations, for each inter-station track in each direction of travel. Then, the sequential relationships for the provisional and actual timetables are compared, and combinations of trains and inter-station tracks whose usage order (departure order) in the actual timetable has changed from the provisional timetable are extracted as changes, and these extracted changes are added to the change list 320, corresponding to the departure times in the provisional timetable.

[0044] Furthermore, for both the provisional and actual timetables, a sequential relationship is created for each station's platform, arranging the trains that use (arrive at) that platform according to their arrival times at that station. Then, the sequential relationships for the provisional and actual timetables are compared, and combinations of trains, stations, and platforms whose usage order (arrive / departure order) in the actual timetable has changed from the provisional timetable are extracted as changes. These extracted changes are then added to the change list 320, corresponding to their arrival times in the provisional timetable.

[0045] Furthermore, by comparing the provisional timetable with the actual timetable, combinations of trains and stations that satisfy the condition of a large difference in travel time between stations for each train, such as the difference in travel time between stations being greater than or equal to the prescribed time, are extracted as points of change. These extracted points of change are then associated with the departure times in the provisional timetable and added to the list of points of change 320.

[0046] Furthermore, by comparing the provisional timetable with the actual timetable, combinations of trains and stations that satisfy the condition of large differences in stopping time, such as the difference in stopping time at each station for each train being greater than or equal to the prescribed time, are extracted as points of change. These extracted points of change are then mapped to arrival times in the provisional timetable and added to the list of points of change 320.

[0047] Furthermore, by comparing the provisional timetable with the actual timetable, combinations of trains, stations, and track numbers where each train arrives and departs from different stations are identified as changes. These identified changes are then mapped to arrival times in the provisional timetable and added to the list of changes 320.

[0048] Then, from the changes included in the change list 320, the one change with the earliest associated time is extracted as a candidate for arrangement. That is, if the change is the order of use of tracks or platforms between stations, the candidate for arrangement is a change in the departure order of the departure or arrival station of the relevant train; if the change is a delay in inter-station travel or station stop, the candidate for arrangement is a change in the arrival and departure times of the relevant train's departure or stopping station; and if the change is the arrival or departure platform, the candidate for arrangement is a change in the platform of the relevant station for the relevant train. Once a candidate for arrangement is extracted, the change list 320 is reset. The extracted candidate for arrangement is added to the candidate for arrangement list 322.

[0049] The update unit 208 creates a predicted timetable by making changes to the provisional timetable regarding the proposed arrangements, and updates it as a new provisional timetable.

[0050] Specifically, the changes related to the train arrangement candidates extracted by the train arrangement candidate extraction unit 206 are applied to the provisional timetable. That is, if the train arrangement candidate is a change in departure order, the departure time of the corresponding train at the station is changed; if the train arrangement candidate is a change in arrival / departure time, the arrival / departure time of the corresponding train at the station is changed; and if the train arrangement candidate is a change in platform, the arrival / departure platform of the corresponding train at the station is changed. Then, a timetable reflecting the applied changes in the portion of the timetable after the time of the change is created, for example by performing a PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) process, thereby creating a predicted timetable that incorporates the changes related to the train arrangement candidates into the provisional timetable. In this process, the arrival and departure times of trains in the portion of the timetable before the time of the change are those from the actual timetable.

[0051] The memory unit 300 is implemented using IC (Integrated Circuit) memory such as ROM (Read Only Memory) and RAM (Random Access Memory), storage devices such as hard disks, and external storage devices built in a cloud environment. It stores programs and data for the processing unit 200 to comprehensively control the operation scheduling estimation device 1, and is also used as a workspace for the processing unit 200. Calculation results performed by the processing unit 200 and input data from the operation unit 102 and communication unit 106 are temporarily stored there.

[0052] In this embodiment, the storage unit 300 stores the operation arrangement estimation program 302, the planned timetable data 310, the actual timetable data 312, the provisional timetable data 314, the change location list 320, and the arrangement candidate list 322.

[0053] [Process Flow] Figure 5 is a flowchart illustrating the process for estimating train schedule adjustments. First, the initial setup unit 202 sets the planned timetable as the initial provisional timetable (step S1). Next, the service suspension section extraction unit 204 compares the planned timetable with the actual timetable to extract the service suspension sections (step S3). Then, the initial setup unit 202 applies the extracted service suspension sections to the provisional timetable and sets the resulting timetable as the new provisional timetable (step S5).

[0054] Next, the arrangement candidate extraction unit 206 creates sequential relationships for the order of use of inter-station tracks and arrival / departure tracks for both the provisional timetable and the actual timetable (step S7). Then, it compares the sequential relationships for the order of use of inter-station tracks for both the provisional timetable and the actual timetable and extracts locations where the order of use of inter-station tracks has changed (step S9). It also compares the sequential relationships for the order of use of arrival / departure tracks for both the provisional timetable and the actual timetable and extracts locations where the order of use of arrival / departure tracks has changed (step S11). Furthermore, it compares the provisional timetable and the actual timetable and extracts locations where the travel time between stations or the stopping time at stations has increased (delay locations) as changes (step S13). Finally, it compares the provisional timetable and the actual timetable and extracts locations where the arrival / departure tracks at stations for trains have changed (step S15).

[0055] If one or more changes are identified as a result (Step S17: YES), the earliest change among the identified changes is selected as the candidate for scheduling (Step S19). Next, the update unit 208 applies the changes related to the selected schedule to the provisional schedule to create a predicted schedule (Step S21), and updates the created predicted schedule as the new provisional schedule (Step S23). After that, the process returns to Step S7 and the same process is repeated.

[0056] On the other hand, if no changes are found (Step S17: NO), the extracted arrangement candidates are designated as operation adjustment arrangements (Step S25). Once these processes are completed, this process is finished.

[0057] [Effects and Effects] According to this embodiment, by repeatedly extracting changes from the actual timetable to the planned timetable as potential arrangements, and updating the predicted timetable with the changes related to the extracted potential arrangements as a new provisional timetable, it becomes possible to estimate the actual train adjustment arrangements that were made based on the extracted potential arrangements, from the actual timetable.

[0058] [Differentiation] It should be noted that the applicable embodiments of the present invention are not limited to those described above, and can be modified as appropriate without departing from the spirit of the invention.

[0059] For example, it may be possible to estimate operational adjustments, including changes in train operations. In this case, a planned train operation, which corresponds to the planned timetable, and an actual train operation, which corresponds to the actual timetable, are provided. Changes in train operations are extracted as points where the train operation for the same train differs between the provisional timetable and the actual timetable.

[0060] Specifically, first, the changes in train operations for trains before and after the suspended section, extracted by comparing the planned timetable and the actual timetable, are applied to the planned train operations and initially set as the provisional train operations. Next, for both the provisional and actual train operations, a sequence relationship for the train order of the train operations is created for each train, arranging the trains in the order in which the train will be used (operated). Subsequently, the sequence relationships for both the provisional and actual train operations are compared, and combinations of trains and vehicles whose train order in the actual train operations has been changed relative to the provisional train operations are extracted as changes, and these are added to the change list 320, corresponding to the departure time in the provisional timetable for the trains affected by the changes. If a change is selected as a candidate for arrangement, the corresponding changes in train operations are applied to the provisional train operation plan, and the train operations from that time onward are also changed in accordance with the changes, thereby updating the train operations to which the candidate for arrangement has been applied as the new provisional train operations. [Explanation of symbols]

[0061] 1…Operation scheduling and arrangement estimation device 200... Processing Unit 202…Initial setting section 204... Driving section extraction unit 206... Candidate Selection Unit 208…Update section 300...Storage section 302... Train Operation Arrangement Estimation Program 310... Planned timetable data 312...Actual Diamond Data 314... Provisional timetable data 320…List of changes 322... List of potential targets 324... Driving arrangement data

Claims

1. A train operation adjustment arrangement estimation device that estimates the order and content of arrangements related to train operation adjustments based on a given planned timetable and a given actual timetable after train operation adjustments, Initial setting means for setting an initial provisional timetable based on the aforementioned planned timetable, An extraction means for searching for changes in the actual timetable relative to the provisional timetable in chronological order and extracting them as potential arrangement candidates, An update means for creating a predicted timetable by applying the changes related to the proposed arrangements to the aforementioned provisional timetable, and updating it as the new provisional timetable, Control means for repeatedly operating the extraction means and the update means until a predetermined termination condition is met, An operation adjustment arrangement estimation device comprising, which estimates the operation adjustment arrangement based on the sequence of arrangement candidates and the arrangements related to said arrangement candidates.

2. The control means performs the repetition control with the termination condition being that the extraction means no longer extracts the modified portion. The operation scheduling and arrangement estimation device according to claim 1.

3. A means for extracting sections where service is suspended by comparing the planned timetable with the actual timetable. Furthermore, The initial setting means sets the initial provisional timetable by applying the suspended section to the planned timetable. The operation scheduling and arrangement estimation device according to claim 1.

4. The aforementioned planned timetable, the aforementioned actual timetable, and the aforementioned provisional timetable include information on the tracks used by each train between stations. The extraction means extracts as candidate arrangements locations the track used for the same train between the same stations differs in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable, including the locations of the changes. The operation scheduling and arrangement estimation device according to claim 1.

5. The extraction means extracts as candidate arrangements locations the difference in travel time between the same train and the same station in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable satisfies predetermined conditions for large differences in travel time, and locations the difference in stopping time between the same train and the same station satisfies predetermined conditions for large differences in stopping time, including these locations in the change locations. The operation scheduling and arrangement estimation device according to claim 1.

6. The aforementioned planned timetable, the aforementioned actual timetable, and the aforementioned provisional timetable include information on the arrival and departure tracks of each train at each station. The extraction means extracts as candidate arrangements locations the arrival and departure tracks at the same station for the same train differ from the actual timetable in relation to the provisional timetable, including the locations of the changes. The operation scheduling and arrangement estimation device according to claim 1.

7. The aforementioned planned timetable, the aforementioned actual timetable, and the aforementioned provisional timetable include information on the operation of each train. The extraction means extracts as candidate arrangements the locations where the vehicle operation of the same train differs in the actual timetable compared to the provisional timetable, including the locations of the changes. The operation scheduling and arrangement estimation device according to claim 1.

8. A method for estimating train operation arrangements, in which a computer system estimates train operation arrangements that indicate the order and content of arrangements related to train operation adjustments, based on a given planned timetable and a given actual timetable after train operation adjustments, An initial setup step to set an initial provisional timetable based on the aforementioned planned timetable, A repetitive control step that repeatedly performs the following until a predetermined termination condition is met: searching for changes in the actual timetable against the provisional timetable in chronological order and extracting them as arrangement candidates; creating a predicted timetable by applying the changes related to the arrangement candidates to the provisional timetable and updating it as the new provisional timetable; A method for estimating the operation adjustment arrangement, which includes the sequence of arrangement candidates and the arrangements related to those arrangement candidates, and estimates the operation adjustment arrangement.

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