Power portfolio creation support device, program, and display method

Abstract

This invention provides a power source portfolio creation support device, program, and display method that enable new power companies to secure stable power procurement. [Solution] A power source portfolio creation support device according to one embodiment has a display unit that displays the profits and risks when using at least one of a plurality of types of procured power sources. The display unit displays the profits and risks in accordance with the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a power supply portfolio creation support device, a program, and a display method.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, along with the liberalization of entry into the electricity retail business, the number of cases where new electricity retailers called new electric power providers (or new electric power) newly enter the market has been increasing. In general, to supply electric power according to consumer demand, electricity retailers procure electric power by combining multiple procured power sources, such as power supply contracts with power generation operators and transactions in the wholesale electric power market. In order to realize stable and economical power supply, the formulation of a power procurement plan is one of the important operations for electricity retailers. The profit of the electricity retail business is determined by the amount obtained by subtracting the power procurement cost from the revenue from power supply to consumers. Therefore, electricity retailers aim to improve the profit of their electricity retail business by procuring electric power using as inexpensive and stable procured power sources as possible.

[0003] As techniques related to the electricity retail business, for example, the following exists. That is, by calculating and displaying the optimal addition ratio (or addition amount) to the demand forecast value and the ratio (or amount) of private power generation and power selling, even when the demand forecast fluctuates, adjustment can be made with a low-cost private power generator, and the remaining part can be backed up by purchasing backup power from an electric power company. There is a power trading support system configured as described above (for example, refer to Patent Document 1 below).

[0004] In addition, there is a power procurement determination device that determines the volume of power to be procured through bilateral transactions by taking into account the magnitude relationship between the unit price of electric power in bilateral transactions and the unit price of electric power in the power trading market, as well as the forecast error of power demand and the forecast error of the forecast market unit price, so that even when the unit price of electric power in the power trading market surges, it is possible to procure electric power inexpensively through bilateral transactions (for example, refer to Patent Document 2 below).

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0005] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2004-336890 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2022-17879 [Overview of the Initiative] [Problems that the invention aims to solve]

[0006] The aforementioned technologies for retail electricity businesses are limited to three types of power sources: private generators, bilateral transactions, and the electricity trading market, and do not consider other power sources. Therefore, these technologies may not be able to utilize power sources other than private generators, bilateral transactions, and the electricity trading market. In particular, for new electricity businesses with less capital compared to other retail electricity businesses, having a wider range of available power sources provides more options, allowing them to consider which power sources to purchase and in what quantities to minimize risk while improving profits. For new electricity businesses, a stable power supply can be a crucial management issue.

[0007] Therefore, this disclosure aims to provide a power source portfolio creation support device, program, and display method that can support new power companies in securing stable power procurement. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] The power source portfolio creation support device according to the first embodiment has a display unit that displays the profits and risks when using at least one of several types of procured power sources. The display unit displays the profits and risks in accordance with the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market.

[0009] The program according to the second embodiment causes the power portfolio creation support device to perform a process that displays the profits and risks of using at least one of the multiple types of procured power sources on the display unit. The display process includes a process that displays the profits and risks on the display unit in accordance with the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market.

[0010] The third aspect of the display method includes a step of displaying the benefits and risks of using at least one of several types of procurement power sources on the display unit. The step of displaying the benefits and risks in accordance with the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market on the display unit. [Effects of the Invention]

[0011] According to this disclosure, it is possible to provide a power source portfolio creation support device, program, and display method that can support new power companies in securing stable power procurement. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0012] [Figure 1] Figure 1 is a diagram showing an example of the types of power sources procured by a retail electricity provider according to the first embodiment. [Figure 2] Figure 2 is a diagram showing an example configuration of a power supply portfolio creation support device according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] Figure 3(A) shows an example of the average and standard deviation of the spot market price according to the first embodiment, and Figure 3(B) shows an example of the average and standard deviation of the imbalance charge price according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] Figure 4 is a diagram showing a first example of operation according to the first embodiment. [Figure 5] Figure 5 is a diagram showing a comparative example of electricity procurement unit prices according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] Figure 6 is a diagram showing a second example of operation according to the first embodiment. [Figure 7] Figure 7 is a diagram showing an example of the display according to the first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating another configuration example of the power portfolio creation support apparatus according to the first embodiment. [Mode for Carrying Out the Invention]

[0013] [First Embodiment] The power portfolio creation support apparatus according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings. In the description of the drawings, the same or similar parts are denoted by the same or similar reference numerals.

[0014] (1) Electric Power Business First, the electric power business according to the first embodiment will be described. The electric power business can be divided into three categories: "power generation operators", "general power transmission and distribution operators", and "retail electricity operators".

[0015] A power generation operator is an operator that owns power generation facilities. Specifically, a power generation operator is an operator that generates power by using power generation facilities such as hydroelectric power generation facilities, wind power generation facilities, and thermal power generation facilities. The power generation operators include not only major electric power companies (or regional electric power companies) such as Tokyo Electric Power Company and Kansai Electric Power, but also power generation operators that have newly entered the power generation business.

[0016] A general power transmission and distribution operator is an entity that performs the business of delivering electricity generated by power generation operators to locations where consumers use the electricity by using power transmission and distribution networks such as power transmission lines. There are 10 supply areas in the country, and a general power transmission and distribution operator exists for each supply area.

[0017] A retail electricity operator is an entity that performs the business of supplying electricity in response to general demand. A retail electricity operator procures electricity from power generation operators, and supplies electricity to each household or each enterprise by using the power transmission network of the general power transmission and distribution operator. The retail electricity operators include, in addition to the 10 regional electric power companies existing in the country, new electric power operators (or new electric power entities) that have newly entered the market due to the "full liberalization of electricity retailing".

[0018] A new electric power utility refers to a retail electric power operator that newly entered the market after the liberalization of electric power (April 2016).

[0019] First, unlike the former general electric power utilities that existed before the liberalization of electric power, new electric power utilities are not obligated to own power generation facilities. Therefore, new electric power utilities procure electricity from electric power trading markets and the like, and supply the electricity to consumers. The former general electric power utilities are companies that mainly conduct electric power retailing business in response to general demand, and 10 electric power companies across Japan correspond to the former general electric power utilities.

[0020] Second, unlike the former general electric power utilities, new electric power utilities do not need to own a power transmission grid. Therefore, new electric power utilities entrust the business of delivering electricity to general power transmission and distribution utilities. New electric power utilities can use the power transmission and distribution grid by paying a "wheeling fee" to the general power transmission and distribution utilities.

[0021] Note that there is also a form called a regional new electric power utility (or regional new electric power). A regional new electric power utility is a new electric power utility that conducts the business of supplying electricity within a specific region. In the first embodiment, the description is given on the assumption that new electric power utilities include regional new electric power utilities, and the two may be used without distinction.

[0022] In general, electricity cannot be stored in large quantities. In recent years, although technologies for storing electricity such as storage batteries have been developed, power storage technologies capable of backing up the entire electric power have not been developed. Therefore, it is necessary to perform production (or power generation) and consumption at the same time and in the same amount. In order to achieve "simultaneous equal amount", it is required to perform electric power supply and demand management. This is because if the supply and demand balance is disrupted, "simultaneous equal amount" cannot be achieved, which may lead to a large-scale power outage in some cases.

[0023] For these reasons, retail electricity providers are required to achieve "simultaneous supply and demand matching" to ensure a stable supply of electricity. "Simultaneous supply and demand matching" means matching the amount of electricity demanded with the amount supplied. Retail electricity providers create demand plans and submit them to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO). OCCTO then manages the supply and demand of electricity throughout the country based on these demand plans. New electricity companies also submit demand plans to OCCTO.

[0024] After the demand plan is submitted, electricity is actually transmitted. At this time, the amount of demand submitted by the retail electricity provider to OCCTO may not match the amount of supply actually provided. The difference between demand and supply is called an "imbalance." When an imbalance occurs, the general transmission and distribution company takes full responsibility and supplies electricity to match the amount of demand. Therefore, the retail electricity provider will have to pay an imbalance penalty (or imbalance fee) to the general transmission and distribution company.

[0025] (2) Types of power sources procured by retail electricity businesses Figure 1 is a diagram illustrating examples of the types of power sources procured by retail electricity providers. Specifically, Figure 1 shows the flow of electricity and funds when each power source is used. In Figure 1, solid lines represent the flow of electricity, and dotted lines represent the flow of funds. Note that in Figure 1, "retail electricity provider" may also be "new power provider."

[0026] A procured power source refers to the power source used, for example, when a retail electricity provider procures electricity from a customer. Alternatively, a procured power source may refer to the mechanism (or system) by which a retail electricity provider procures electricity from a customer.

[0027] As shown in Figure 1, retail electricity providers can procure electricity using the FIT system, FIP system, constant backup (constant BU), bilateral contracts, and / or JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange). Retail electricity providers can also procure electricity using their own power sources and / or PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements). In the first embodiment, the procured power sources include the FIT system, FIP system, constant BU, bilateral contracts, JEPX, their own power sources, and / or PPAs.

[0028] The Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system is a system in which the government promises to purchase electricity generated from renewable energy sources at a fixed price for a fixed period. Under the FIT system, fixed-price purchases are guaranteed, and market trading is exempted, thus protecting against unsold or imbalance risks in the market. As a result, the barriers to entry into renewable energy businesses are lowered to below a certain level, promoting the spread of renewable energy.

[0029] The FIP (Feed-in Premium) system allows certified businesses to sell electricity generated from renewable energy sources directly through the electricity trading market or bilateral transactions, with a certain amount of subsidy added to the selling price. The FIP system aims to support investment incentives by allowing businesses to sell electricity themselves, and is positioned as an intermediate step towards self-sufficiency so that they can compete on a common playing field with other power sources.

[0030] Renewable energy includes solar power, wind power, hydroelectric power, geothermal power, and / or biomass power.

[0031] "Continuous BU" refers to a system where new power companies continuously purchase electricity from former general electricity companies. This allows new power companies to ensure a stable supply of electricity to consumers. However, the drawbacks of continuous BU have been pointed out in recent years, and there are movements to abolish it.

[0032] A bilateral contract is an agreement concluded between a retail electricity provider and a power generation provider. Power generation providers supply electricity using their own power generation or energy storage facilities. New electricity providers purchase the electricity generated by power generation providers at a unit price based on the bilateral contract and supply the electricity to consumers through general transmission and distribution companies. In bilateral contracts, the contract is made under specific conditions without going through electricity trading markets such as JEPX, so fluctuation risks can be reduced, and it becomes a stable power supply source for new electricity providers. It should be noted that BU (Built-in) companies also purchase electricity through contracts between new electricity providers and former general electricity providers, so they can also be included in bilateral contracts.

[0033] JEPX is an exchange that mediates futures trading of electricity. JEPX functions as an electricity exchange for buying and selling domestic electricity. JEPX has a market called the day-ahead market (or spot market) where electricity is delivered the following day. In the spot market, the trading price of electricity (price per kWh) is determined in 30-minute increments as the spot market unit price. For example, a new electricity company can create an electricity demand plan for the following day and supply the electricity to consumers by procuring the electricity for the following day from the spot market based on that plan. In addition to the spot market, JEPX also has a day-of market (or hour-ahead market) where trading is possible up to one hour before delivery, a forward market where electricity to be delivered over a certain period in the future can be traded, and a baseload market where electricity is delivered at a fixed price and in a fixed quantity over a period of one or two years.

[0034] Self-source power is a power source owned by the retail electricity provider. Self-source power may include, for example, renewable energy generation facilities or energy storage facilities. Self-source power may also be called a private generator. Because self-source power is power generation equipment owned by the retail electricity provider itself, it can supply electricity at a lower cost compared to other procured power sources.

[0035] A Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) is a system in which a retail electricity provider and a consumer directly contract for the purchase and sale of electricity. PPAs primarily cover electricity generated from renewable energy sources. A PPA where the power generation facility is located near the consumer is sometimes called an on-site PPA, while a PPA where the power generation facility is located far from the consumer is sometimes called an off-site PPA.

[0036] In this way, retail electricity providers supply electricity to consumers using at least one of multiple power sources. As shown in Figure 1, retail electricity providers can supply electricity to extra-high voltage consumers with a contracted power of 2000kW or more, high voltage consumers with a contracted power of 50kW or more but less than 2000kW, and / or low voltage consumers with a contracted power of less than 50kW.

[0037] (3) Problems according to the first embodiment As mentioned above, retail electricity providers can supply electricity to customers using various power source procurement methods. In particular, new power companies, which have less capital compared to other retail electricity providers, may quickly run out of funds if they do not choose appropriate power source procurement methods, and may be directly affected by business risks. In other words, for new power companies, determining what kind of power source procurement methods will minimize risks and increase profits can be a very important business challenge.

[0038] Therefore, in the first embodiment, the benefits and risks of using at least one of the multiple types of power sources are displayed on the display unit. Specifically, the power source portfolio creation support device has a display unit that displays the benefits and risks of using at least one of the multiple types of power sources. As a result, for example, the benefits and risks of using each power source are displayed, which helps new power companies determine which power sources to select to procure electricity at a stable price.

[0039] In particular, in the first embodiment, the display unit displays the profits and risks corresponding to the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market (for example, the JEPX spot market). This makes it possible to support new electricity providers, for example, in determining what kind of power sources to select to obtain profits and reduce business risks, based on the profits and risks in the JEPX spot market, in other words, how to ensure a stable power supply.

[0040] In other words, the power source portfolio creation support device according to the first embodiment can support new power companies in securing a stable supply of electricity. This reduces the business risks for new power companies to a certain level, ensures the continuity (or sustainability) of their business, and also enables the creation of new jobs.

[0041] (4) Example of a power portfolio creation support device configuration Next, an example configuration of the power supply portfolio creation support device according to the first embodiment will be described.

[0042] Figure 2 shows an example configuration of the power supply portfolio creation support device 100.

[0043] As shown in Figure 2, the power portfolio creation support device 100 includes a procurement plan creation unit 110, a revenue risk calculation unit 120, and a display unit 130. The power portfolio creation support device 100 also includes a demand / transmission DB (Data Base) 131, a power supply equipment DB 132, a power supply contract DB 133, a wholesale power market DB 134, a power price average / variance DB 135, and a power price average / variance calculation unit 140.

[0044] The procurement plan creation unit 110 creates a power procurement plan based on the information stored in each DB 131 to 135. The power procurement plan is, for example, data showing the amount of power from each procured power source every 30 minutes. The power procurement plan may also be data showing a supply plan that matches the demand. The power procurement plan may also be called a supply plan. The power procurement plan may also be data submitted to OCCTO. The procurement plan creation unit 110 outputs the generated power procurement plan to the revenue risk calculation unit 120.

[0045] The profit and risk calculation unit 120 calculates the profit and risk when using at least one of the multiple types of power sources, based on the information stored in each DB 131 to 135 and the power procurement plan. In particular, the profit and risk calculation unit 120 displays the profit and risk according to the fluctuation risk in the spot market. The profit and risk calculation unit 120 outputs the calculated profit and risk to the display unit 130.

[0046] The display unit 130 displays the profits and risks when using at least one of several types of sourced power. In the first embodiment, the display unit 130 displays the profits and risks in accordance with the fluctuation risk in the spot market.

[0047] In the first embodiment, risk is defined as the standard deviation of profit. For example, the variability in average profit is considered risk. The greater the variability (i.e., the standard deviation), the greater the risk, and the smaller the variability, the less the risk. In the power supply portfolio creation support device 100 according to the first embodiment, the display unit 130 displays how to select the power supply to procure, and how much to procure and at what price, in order to obtain profit while taking such risks into consideration.

[0048] Here, the combination of the type, price, and quantity of procured power sources will be referred to below as the "power source procurement portfolio." The combination of the type, price, and quantity of procured power sources directly impacts the profits of new power companies, and depending on how they are selected, it can also affect business risks. In the first embodiment, the combination of the type, price, and quantity of procured power sources is considered as a kind of portfolio.

[0049] The demand and transmission DB131 stores information about consumers and power transmission. Specifically, the demand and transmission DB131 may store the following information: (A1) Each customer's received voltage (extra-high voltage, high voltage, and / or low voltage), each customer's contracted capacity, and / or each customer's 30-minute demand plan and actual values, etc. (A2) Basic charges for each customer, and / or unit rates for usage charges for each customer, etc. (A3) Basic charges, usage-based charges, and transmission loss rates for general power transmission and distribution operators. (A4) General administrative unit price per volume of electricity sold.

[0050] The power supply equipment DB132 stores information about the power supply equipment. The power supply equipment may be self-owned equipment owned by a new power company. Specifically, the power supply equipment DB132 may store the following information: (B1) Capital costs, useful life, and / or installation type of each power supply facility (e.g., private power generation, on-site PPA, and / or off-site PPA), etc. (B2) For thermal power generation and / or biomass power generation, etc., rated output, fuel cost characteristics, minimum output rate, and / or output change rate, etc. (B3) For solar power generation, wind power generation, and / or small-scale hydropower generation, etc., planned and actual power generation values ​​every 30 minutes, etc. (B4) Regarding energy storage equipment, this includes storage capacity, charging output, discharging output, charging loss rate, discharging loss rate, self-discharge rate, the electricity price that serves as the charging threshold, and / or the electricity price that serves as the discharging threshold.

[0051] The Power Supply Contract DB133 stores information about power supply contracts. Specifically, the Power Supply Contract DB133 stores the contract type (e.g., bilateral contract or constant backup), the date and time of supply, the basic charge, and / or the unit price for usage-based charges.

[0052] The wholesale electricity market DB134 stores information about wholesale electricity markets other than the JEPX spot market. Specifically, the wholesale electricity market DB134 stores information such as the type of market (forward transaction, baseload market, etc.), the date and time of supply, and / or the unit price for usage-based charges.

[0053] The electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 aggregates at least one of the spot market unit price and the imbalance charge unit price, and calculates the mean and standard deviation of at least one of the spot market unit price and the imbalance charge unit price. The electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 may also calculate covariance based on the standard deviation of the spot market unit price and the standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price. Specifically, the electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 calculates the mean and standard deviation of at least one of the spot market unit price and the imbalance charge unit price for each period group. Alternatively, the electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 may calculate covariance based on the standard deviation of the spot market unit price and the standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price for each period group. The electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 may calculate, for example, as follows.

[0054] In other words, the electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 may obtain spot market unit prices at predetermined intervals (for example, every 30 minutes) from a server device owned by JEPX, or it may obtain imbalance charge unit prices at predetermined intervals (for example, every 30 minutes) from the imbalance charge information disclosure website. Then, the electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 may aggregate the spot market unit prices at 30-minute intervals for one year, classify them into period groups, and calculate the average and standard deviation of the spot market unit prices for each period group. Similarly, the electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 may aggregate the imbalance charge unit prices at 30-minute intervals for one year, classify them into period groups, and calculate the average and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit prices for each period group.

[0055] Figure 3(A) shows an example of the average and standard deviation of the spot market unit price according to the first embodiment, and Figure 3(B) shows an example of the average and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price according to the first embodiment. In both Figure 3(A) and Figure 3(B), examples of period groups are shown by season and by weekday / holiday, but are not limited to these, and may be by day, day of the week, or month, for example. The power portfolio creation support device 100 can calculate the average profit and the standard deviation of profit that will ultimately be displayed in the display unit 130 based on the average and standard deviation of the spot market unit price and the imbalance charge unit price. In the first embodiment, the "spot market" is considered to be one of the causes of risk to profit. The same applies to "imbalance charges". Details will be described later.

[0056] Regarding covariance, the electricity price average / variance calculation unit 140 may calculate the covariance between the spot market price and the imbalance charge price based on the calculated standard deviation of the spot market price and the calculated standard deviation of the imbalance charge price. The covariance may also be expressed as the product of the two standard deviations. For example, even if the electricity price average / variance calculation unit 140 cannot calculate one of the standard deviations of the spot market price or the imbalance charge price, it is possible to obtain the standard deviation of that one by using covariance.

[0057] In the examples shown in Figures 3(A) and 3(B), the mean and standard deviation are calculated for the spot market price and the imbalance charge price. However, for example, instead of calculating the mean and standard deviation of the spot market price and / or the imbalance charge price, the mean and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources may also be calculated. This is because fluctuations in the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources can be considered a risk to profits. Further details will be provided later. The electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 may also calculate the mean and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources from past data.

[0058] The electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 outputs at least one of the following to the electricity price averaging and variance DB 135: the average and standard deviation of the spot market unit price, the average and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price, and the covariance. The electricity price averaging and variance calculation unit 140 may also output the average and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy to the electricity price averaging and variance DB 135. The electricity price averaging and variance DB 135 stores at least one of the following: the average and standard deviation of the spot market unit price, the average and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price, and the covariance. The electricity price averaging and variance DB 135 may also store the average and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy.

[0059] The covariance may be calculated not only based on the pair of spot market price and imbalance charge, but also based on the pair of renewable energy generation amount and spot market price, and the pair of renewable energy generation amount and imbalance charge.

[0060] (5) Example of operation Next, an example of operation according to the first embodiment will be described. The example of operation according to the first embodiment will be described separately as a first example of operation performed by the procurement plan creation unit 110 and a second example of operation performed by the profit risk calculation unit 120.

[0061] (5.1) First example of operation Figure 4 is a diagram showing a first example of operation according to the first embodiment. Figure 4 shows an example of operation performed by the procurement plan creation unit 110.

[0062] As shown in Figure 4, in step S10, the procurement plan creation unit 110 starts processing.

[0063] In step S11, the procurement planning unit 110 sets the calculation conditions. These calculation conditions include, for example, parameters related to each customer's contracted capacity (A1 above) or parameters related to the risk burden coefficient. The risk burden coefficient will be described later. The procurement planning unit 110 may also set the calculation conditions by setting specific values ​​for the parameters used in the calculation.

[0064] In step S12, the procurement planning unit 110 calculates the required procurement amount. The required procurement amount may be the amount of electricity (or demand) required by all customers contracted by the new power company. Specifically, the procurement planning unit 110 may calculate the required procurement amount every 30 minutes by adding up the planned demand values ​​(A1 above) for each customer every 30 minutes for all customers. The procurement planning unit 110 may also calculate the required procurement amount by taking into account the transmission loss rate (or transmission loss rate) (A3 above) due to transmission.

[0065] In step S13, the procurement planning unit 110 calculates the total procurement amount. The total procurement amount may be the amount of electricity (or supply) that the new power company can supply to all consumers. The procurement planning unit 110 calculates the total procurement amount by dividing it into "long-term procurement power sources" and "short-term procurement power sources".

[0066] Firstly, "long-term procured power sources" refer to power sources whose procurement amount is determined before the previous day. Power sources procured through bilateral contracts may be included in "long-term procured power sources." In the case of "thermal power generation" under bilateral contracts, the procurement amount for "thermal power generation" is fixed in advance, so it can be included in "long-term procured power sources." Alternatively, private power generators of new power companies, such as solar, wind, and small-scale hydropower, are procured in advance and may be included in "long-term procured power sources." Alternatively, the forward market or baseload market may also be included in "long-term delivered power sources" because the procurement amount is determined in advance. The procurement planning unit 110 can calculate the amount of electricity procured for "long-term procured power sources" by obtaining information from the power supply contract DB 133, power supply equipment DB 132, and wholesale power market DB 134 and performing calculations.

[0067] Furthermore, with regard to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and small-scale hydropower generated from the private power generators of new power companies, the procurement planning unit 110 may use the average value and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated by renewable energy stored in the electricity price average / variance DB 135 as the amount of electricity procured from renewable energy sources. The procurement planning unit 110 may also output the average value and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated by renewable energy sources to the profit risk calculation unit 120.

[0068] Secondly, "short-term procured power sources" refer to power sources whose procurement amount is determined the day before or on the day of procurement. For example, procurement from the spot market, continuous buy-in (BU) power, and discharge from energy storage facilities can be included in "short-term procured power sources" because their procurement amount can be determined the day before or on the day of procurement. In addition, self-generated power sources owned by new power companies, such as thermal power plants or biomass generators, can also be included in "short-term procured power sources" because their power generation amount can be adjusted.

[0069] The procurement planning unit 110 may calculate the procurement amount from "long-term procurement power sources" as the total procurement amount in step S13, and calculate the procurement amount from "short-term procurement power sources" in steps S15 to S17. The procurement planning unit 110 may also calculate the procurement amount from "long-term procurement power sources" every 30 minutes. This procurement amount may be arbitrarily set for each procurement power source.

[0070] In step S14, the procurement plan creation unit 110 determines whether the required procurement quantity is greater than the total procurement quantity. If the required procurement quantity is greater than the total procurement quantity (YES in step S14), the process proceeds to step S15. On the other hand, if the total procurement quantity is not greater than the required procurement quantity (NO in step S14), the process proceeds to step S20.

[0071] In step S15, the procurement planning unit 110 calculates the electricity procurement unit price for the "short-term procured power source".

[0072] As mentioned above, "short-term procured power sources" include on-demand power units (BUs), private power generators such as thermal or biomass power plants, or energy storage facilities. Firstly, the unit price for electricity procurement by on-demand power units may be the metered rate stored in the power supply contract DB133. Secondly, the unit price for electricity procurement by private power generators such as thermal or biomass power plants may be calculated based on the fuel cost characteristics (see (B2) above) stored in the power supply equipment DB132. Thirdly, the unit price for electricity procurement by energy storage facilities may be the electricity price (see (B4) above) stored in the power supply equipment DB132.

[0073] As mentioned above, "short-term power procurement" includes power procurement from the spot market. In the procurement planning unit 110 according to the first embodiment, the power procurement unit price in the spot market is calculated by adding a "risk burden unit price" to the average value of the spot market unit price. Specifically, the following formula (1) is used.

[0074] Spot market electricity procurement unit price = Average spot market unit price + Risk burden unit price ... (1) The "risk-bearing unit price" can be expressed, for example, as a numerical value that quantifies the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market. The "risk-bearing unit price" may also be a parameter that represents the fluctuation risk of spot market prices. The "risk-bearing unit price" may also be expressed as a numerical value obtained by multiplying the standard deviation of electricity trading prices by a risk-bearing coefficient. Specifically, the "risk-bearing unit price" may be expressed by the following formula (2).

[0075] Risk burden cost = Risk burden coefficient × Standard deviation of spot market price ···(2) The variation (or fluctuation) of the average spot market price can be a risk for new power companies when they actually use the spot market. If the variation is above a certain level, purchasing electricity at a spot market price that is above the average level can result in a significant loss for new power companies. Therefore, in the first embodiment, the standard deviation of the spot market price is considered as a risk when procuring electricity from the spot market, and a value corresponding to that standard deviation is defined as the risk burden price.

[0076] In equation (2), the risk burden coefficient may be a predetermined coefficient that can be set by the new electricity provider. The risk burden coefficient may be arbitrarily set according to the time of day, date, day of the week, month, season, and / or location of the transaction. In other words, the "risk burden unit price" may be expressed based on a predetermined coefficient that can be set and the standard deviation of the spot market unit price. The "risk burden unit price" may be expressed in 30-minute units (i.e., in time slots).

[0077] The procurement planning unit 110 obtains the average and standard deviation of spot market unit prices (for example, Figure 3(A)) from the electricity price average / variance DB 135. The risk burden coefficient can be input by setting it by the new power company. The procurement planning unit 110 can then calculate the risk burden unit price and the spot market electricity procurement unit price using equations (1) and (2).

[0078] In step S16, the procurement planning unit 110 selects the power source with the lowest power procurement unit price. Specifically, the procurement planning unit 110 may select the power source with the lowest power procurement unit price among those calculated in step S15. The procurement planning unit 110 may also compare the power procurement unit price from power procurement other than the spot market among the "short-term power sources" with the power procurement unit price of the spot market (Equation (1)) and select the one with the lower unit price. For example, the procurement planning unit 110 may compare the power procurement unit price of the regular BU with the power procurement unit price of the spot market and select the power source with the lower price. Alternatively, the procurement planning unit 110 may compare the power procurement unit price from a private generator with the power procurement unit price of the spot market and select the power source with the lower price. Alternatively, the procurement planning unit 110 may compare the power procurement unit price from an energy storage facility with the power procurement unit price of the spot market and select the power source with the lower price. The procurement planning unit 110 may select the power source to be procured in 30-minute increments by comparing the power procurement unit price in 30-minute increments.

[0079] Figure 5 shows a comparative example of electricity procurement unit prices according to the first embodiment. Figure 5 shows an example where the electricity procurement unit price for the business unit (BU) and the electricity procurement unit price for the private generator are the same. As shown in Figure 5, the average value of the spot market unit price may fluctuate in 30-minute increments. As mentioned above, for new electricity providers, procuring electricity from the spot market during times when the spot market unit price is higher than other times is a business risk and is not necessarily desirable. On the other hand, if electricity can be procured from the spot market during times when the average value of the spot market unit price is trending downwards, it will lead to improved profits.

[0080] Therefore, the procurement planning unit 110 selects a source of power based on a value obtained by adding a risk-bearing unit price to the average value of electricity trading prices (for example, the average spot market unit price) (Equation (1)) and the unit price of other sources of power (for example, a constant BU or a self-generating power generator). Specifically, the procurement planning unit 110 selects the electricity trading market as the source of power if the added value obtained by adding the risk-bearing unit price to the average value of electricity trading prices is lower than the unit price of other sources of power. On the other hand, the procurement planning unit 110 selects other sources of power if the unit price of other sources of power is lower than the added value.

[0081] In the example shown in Figure 5, during nighttime hours (time zone codes "1" to "9"), the "average" spot market price is consistently lower than the electricity procurement price for the building unit (BU) and self-generated power generator. Therefore, it is conceivable that electricity procurement from the spot market would be chosen. However, spot market prices are subject to fluctuation risk. If only the average spot market price is considered, depending on the fluctuation risk, the spot market price may become higher than the electricity procurement price for the BU and self-generated power generator in the future, and electricity may be purchased from the spot market during those higher-priced hours. In such a situation, choosing the spot market is undesirable.

[0082] Therefore, in the first embodiment, the risk burden unit price is considered as a fluctuation risk (towards an upward price) relative to the spot market unit price, and the spot market electricity procurement unit price (Equation (1)) considering the fluctuation risk is compared with the price from other procurement sources. This makes it possible for new power companies, for example, to select procurement sources while considering the risk in the spot market. In the example shown in Figure 5, during the nighttime hours (time zone codes "1" to "9"), the sum of the average spot market unit price and the risk burden unit price (Equation (1)) is higher than the unit prices of the constant BU and the self-generating power supply, so the constant BU or the self-generating power supply is selected as the procurement source.

[0083] On the other hand, during periods when the electricity procurement cost for the BU (Built-in) and self-generated power is higher than the sum of the average spot market price plus the risk burden price, electricity procured from the spot market is selected. In the example shown in Figure 5, during daytime hours (time zone codes "21" to "29," etc.), even when the risk burden price is added, the spot market price is still significantly lower than the prices for the BU and self-generated power. In this case, it becomes possible to select the spot market as a power source after considering the risks in the spot market, allowing new power companies to confidently choose the "spot market" as a power source.

[0084] The procurement planning unit 110 then calculates the procurement amount for the selected procurement power source as the procurement amount for the "short-term procurement power source". This procurement amount may be arbitrarily set for each procurement power source.

[0085] In step S17, the procurement planning unit 110 updates the total procurement quantity. Specifically, the procurement planning unit 110 may calculate (or update) the total procurement quantity by adding the procurement quantity of the "short-term procurement power" calculated in step S16 to the total procurement quantity of the "long-term procurement power" calculated in step S13, thereby summing the procurement quantities of the "long-term procurement power" and the "short-term procurement power".

[0086] In step S18, the procurement plan creation unit 110 determines whether the required procurement quantity matches the updated total procurement quantity. If the required procurement quantity does not match the total procurement quantity (NO in step S18), the process proceeds to step S15. On the other hand, if the required procurement quantity matches the total procurement quantity (YES in step S18), the process proceeds to step S25. In other words, the procurement plan creation unit 110 repeats steps S15 to S18 until the required procurement quantity matches the total procurement quantity.

[0087] On the other hand, in step S20, the procurement planning unit 110 calculates the amount of surplus electricity. That is, if the total amount procured is greater than the required amount procured (NO in step S14), then a surplus of electricity is generated. Therefore, the procurement planning unit 110 calculates the amount of this surplus electricity in this step. The procurement planning unit 110 may also use the amount obtained by subtracting the required amount procured (step S12) from the total amount procured (step S13) as the amount of surplus electricity. The procurement planning unit 110 may also calculate the amount of surplus electricity in 30-minute increments.

[0088] In step S21, the procurement plan creation unit 110 calculates the charging unit price and the electricity sales unit price. The charging unit price represents the electricity unit price when charging the energy storage equipment owned by the new power company. Specifically, the electricity price that becomes the charging threshold (B4 above) obtained from the power supply equipment DB132 may be used as the charging unit price. Alternatively, the discharge unit price may be used instead of the charging unit price. The discharge unit price represents the electricity unit price when discharging from the energy storage equipment owned by the new power company. In this case, the electricity unit price that becomes the discharge threshold (B4 above) obtained from the power supply equipment DB132 may be used as the discharge unit price.

[0089] On the other hand, the electricity sales price represents the electricity price when selling electricity to the spot market. The procurement planning unit 110 according to the first embodiment uses the average spot market price minus the risk burden price as the electricity sales price. Specifically, the electricity sales price is expressed by the following formula (3).

[0090] Electricity selling price to the spot market = Average price in the spot market - Risk burden price ... (3) The risk-bearing unit price is the same as when calculating the electricity procurement unit price (step S15). The risk-bearing unit price is expressed by formula (2).

[0091] In step S22, the procurement planning unit 110 selects the higher of the charging unit price and the electricity selling unit price. In other words, the procurement planning unit 110 selects whether to charge the surplus electricity into the energy storage equipment or sell it to the spot market.

[0092] Specifically, the procurement planning unit 110 selects the electricity trading market (i.e., selling electricity) if the subtraction value (equation (3)) obtained by subtracting the risk burden unit price from the average spot market unit price is higher than the unit price of other procurement power sources (e.g., charging unit price). On the other hand, the procurement planning unit 110 selects other procurement power sources (e.g., energy storage equipment) (i.e., charging) if the unit price of other procurement power sources is higher than the subtraction value.

[0093] Thus, in the procurement planning unit 110, when selecting between charging or selling electricity, the electricity selling price used takes into account the risk of fluctuations in the spot market electricity selling price, similar to step S16. This makes it possible, for example, to prevent surplus electricity from being sold at a price lower than necessary, and can also help improve the profitability of new electricity providers. The procurement planning unit 110 may also make selections in 30-minute increments.

[0094] Furthermore, if the discharge unit price to the energy storage equipment is used instead of the charging unit price, the comparison of the two unit prices may be reversed. That is, the procurement planning unit 110 should select the spot market, i.e., sell electricity, if the subtraction value obtained by subtracting the risk burden unit price from the average of the spot market unit prices is lower than the discharge unit price. On the other hand, the procurement planning unit 110 should select the energy storage equipment, i.e., discharge, if the discharge unit price is lower than the subtraction value.

[0095] The procurement planning unit 110 then calculates the amount of electricity to be used for charging (i.e., the amount of charge) if charging is selected, and the amount of electricity to be used for selling electricity (i.e., the amount of electricity sold) if selling electricity is selected. In the case of discharge, the procurement planning unit 110 only needs to calculate the amount of discharge instead of the amount of charge. The procurement planning unit 110 may also calculate each amount of electricity in 30-minute increments. The amount of charge (or discharge) and the amount of electricity sold may be set arbitrarily.

[0096] In step S23, the procurement plan creation unit 110 updates the surplus power amount by subtracting the amount of electricity charged or sold calculated in step S22 from the surplus power amount calculated in step S20.

[0097] In step S24, the procurement plan creation unit 110 determines whether the updated surplus power amount is "0". If the surplus power amount is "0" (YES in step S24), the process proceeds to step S25. On the other hand, if the surplus power amount is not "0" (NO in step S24), the process proceeds to step S20. For example, if the procurement plan creation unit 110 selects to sell electricity to the spot market but the surplus power amount does not become "0", it may select to charge the energy storage equipment so that the surplus power amount becomes "0".

[0098] In step S25, the procurement planning unit 110 calculates the imbalance. For example, the procurement planning unit 110 calculates the imbalance based on the planned and actual demand values ​​for each customer every 30 minutes (A1 above) and the planned and actual power generation values ​​for renewable energy sources such as solar power generation every 30 minutes (B3 above).

[0099] Then, in step S26, the procurement plan creation unit 110 completes the series of processes. The procurement plan creation unit 110 may create a power procurement plan that includes the total procurement amount of "long-term procured power sources" and "short-term procured power sources" (step S17).

[0100] (5.2) Second example of operation Next, we will explain the second example of operation. The second example of operation is mainly an example of operation performed by the profit risk calculation unit 120.

[0101] Figure 6 is a diagram showing a second operational example according to the first embodiment. In the second operational example, the profit risk calculation unit 120 ultimately calculates the average and standard deviation of the profits of the new power company. Generally, profit is expressed by the following equation (4). In each step shown in Figure 6, each cost on the right-hand side of equation (4) is calculated.

[0102] Profit = Electricity sales - Electricity procurement costs - Transmission costs - Equipment costs - General and administrative expenses ... (4).

[0103] As shown in Figure 6, in step S30, the profit risk calculation unit 120 starts processing.

[0104] In step S31, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the electricity procurement cost. Specifically, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the average (or expected) and standard deviation of the electricity procurement cost based on the procurement quantity (step S17 in Figure 4) and the electricity procurement unit price (step S15 in Figure 4). Basically, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 can calculate the electricity procurement cost by multiplying the electricity procurement unit price by the procurement quantity. For example, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 can calculate the electricity procurement cost for the spot market by multiplying the electricity procurement unit price for the spot market (step S15 in Figure 4) by the procurement quantity (step S16). In this way, since the electricity procurement unit price differs for each power source, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may calculate the electricity procurement cost for each power source. This allows the revenue risk calculation unit 120 to calculate the electricity procurement cost for each power source every 30 minutes, for example. The revenue risk calculation unit 120 may also perform the following calculations.

[0105] Specifically, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the average annual electricity procurement cost by summing up the electricity procurement costs of each power source present every 30 minutes, calculating this for a day, and then calculating this for a year to obtain an average value. The revenue risk calculation unit 120 also calculates the standard deviation of the annual electricity procurement cost by calculating the standard deviation of this average value. The calculation of the average value and standard deviation itself may be performed using known methods.

[0106] The revenue risk calculation unit 120 may take the power source portfolio into consideration when calculating the annual electricity procurement costs. That is, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the average and standard deviation of the annual electricity procurement costs by changing at least one of the combinations of the type of power source procured, the unit price of each power source (step S15 in Figure 4), and the amount of each power source procured (step S17 in Figure 4). For example, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may calculate as follows.

[0107] Specifically, the types of power sources to be procured are "bilateral contract," "constant BU," and "spot market." Furthermore, the unit prices for each power source during a specific 30-minute period are "X yen," "Y yen," and "Z yen," respectively. Additionally, the procurement quantities for each power source during that 30-minute period are "A," "B," and "C," respectively. In this case, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the power procurement cost for that 30-minute period as "X × A + Y × B + Z × C." Then, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the average and standard deviation of the annual power procurement cost from the power procurement cost for that 30-minute period. Next, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the average and standard deviation of the annual power procurement cost, setting the procurement quantity for "bilateral contract" to "A + a" and keeping the others unchanged. Next, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the average and standard deviation of the annual power procurement cost, setting the procurement quantity for "constant BU" to "B + b" and keeping the others unchanged. Then, ... and so on. In this way, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 can arbitrarily change the combination of the type of power source, the unit price of each power source, and the amount of each power source procured, and calculate the average value and standard deviation of the annual power procurement costs for each combination, thereby calculating the annual power procurement costs for a combined power source portfolio.

[0108] Furthermore, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may take imbalances into consideration when calculating electricity procurement costs. Specifically, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may calculate the average value and standard deviation of electricity procurement costs based on the average value and standard deviation of imbalance charges read from the electricity price average / variance DB 135 and the amount of imbalance calculated by the procurement plan creation unit 110 (step S25 in Figure 4).

[0109] Furthermore, renewable energy is included in the types of power sources to be procured. The revenue risk calculation unit 120 uses the average value and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy, received from the procurement plan creation unit 110, as one of the power sources to be procured every 30 minutes, along with other power sources, to calculate the electricity procurement costs. As a result, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 can calculate the average value and standard deviation of electricity procurement costs, including renewable energy.

[0110] In step S32, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the transmission costs. Specifically, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may calculate the annual transmission costs based on each customer's contracted capacity and actual values ​​(A1 above) and the basic charge and usage-based charge unit price of the general transmission and distribution operator (A3 above). If no transmission costs are incurred due to an on-site PPA or the like, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may deduct that amount from the annual transmission costs.

[0111] In step S33, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the equipment costs. Specifically, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may calculate the annual equipment costs from the capital costs and useful life (B1 above) of each power supply facility. The equipment costs may be the costs of facilities owned by the new power company.

[0112] In step S34, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates general and administrative expenses. General and administrative expenses may be the costs incurred by the new power company in running the business. General and administrative expenses may be proportional to the amount of electricity sold. The revenue risk calculation unit 120 may calculate the annual amount of general and administrative expenses based on the amount of electricity sold (actual value of electricity demand (a1 above)) and the general and administrative unit price per unit of electricity sold (a4 above).

[0113] In step S35, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates electricity sales. Specifically, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may calculate one year's worth of electricity sales based on each customer's contracted capacity and actual values ​​(A1 above) and the basic charge and usage-based charge unit price of the rate menu for each customer (A2 above). Electricity sales may basically be calculated based on the charges corresponding to the electricity used by each customer.

[0114] In step S36, the profit risk calculation unit 120 calculates the mean and standard deviation of profits. As described above, in the first embodiment, the risk to profits is expressed as the standard deviation of profits.

[0115] Firstly, the risk to profits includes the standard deviation of the spot market price. As mentioned above, the spot market price can affect the profits of new electricity providers, and the greater the variability (i.e., standard deviation) of the spot market price, the greater the risk to profits.

[0116] As described above, the procurement planning unit 110 calculated the electricity procurement unit price and procurement quantity in the spot market, taking into account the risk burden unit price (equation (1)) (steps S15 and S16 in Figure 4). The revenue risk calculation unit 120 then calculated the electricity procurement cost by multiplying the electricity procurement unit price and procurement quantity in the spot market (step S31). The revenue risk calculation unit 120 then calculated the average and standard deviation of profits using equation (4). In other words, the calculation of the average and standard deviation of profits is performed after taking into account the risk burden in the spot market. Specifically, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 calculates the average and standard deviation of profits based on the average and standard deviation of the spot market unit price.

[0117] Secondly, the standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price may be included as a risk to profits. As mentioned above, variability in the imbalance charge unit price can also be a risk to profits. As described above, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 can calculate electricity procurement costs based on the average value and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price (step S31), so the average value and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price can also be considered in the calculation of profits. In other words, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 can calculate the average value and risk (i.e., standard deviation) of profits based on the average value and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price.

[0118] Thirdly, the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources may be included as a risk to profits. This is because variability in the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources can also be a risk to profits. As described above, the profit risk calculation unit 120 can calculate electricity procurement costs based on the average value and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources (step S31), so the average value and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources can also be considered in the calculation of profits. In other words, the profit risk calculation unit 120 can calculate the average value and risk (i.e., standard deviation) of profits based on the average value and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources.

[0119] Fourth, the average profit and risk may be calculated by taking all of these risks into consideration. That is, the average profit and risk may be calculated based on the average and standard deviation of spot market prices, the average and standard deviation of imbalance charges, and the average and standard deviation of renewable energy generation. By considering all factors that could be risks to profits, the risk to profits (i.e., the standard deviation) can be appropriately calculated.

[0120] Specifically, the profit risk calculation unit 120 can calculate the mean and standard deviation of profits by substituting each expense calculated in steps S31 to S35 into equation (4).

[0121] Here, we focus on the "electricity procurement cost" (step S31) in equation (4). In calculating the "electricity procurement cost," we explained that the average and standard deviation of the electricity procurement cost can be calculated according to the combination of power source portfolios, that is, the combination of the type of power source procured, the unit price of each power source procured, and the procurement quantity of each power source. Since "profit" is calculated from the "electricity procurement cost" in equation (4), considering that the electricity procurement cost is calculated in this way, when calculating "profit," the profit will also be calculated according to the combination of power source portfolios. In other words, in calculating "profit," the profit risk calculation unit 120 will also calculate the average and standard deviation of profit according to the combination of the type of power source procured, the unit price of each power source procured, and the procurement quantity of each power source procured. The profit risk calculation unit 120 can perform profit simulations by changing the type of power source procured, the unit price of each power source procured, and the procurement quantity of each power source.

[0122] The profit risk calculation unit 120 may calculate the average and standard deviation of profits over a year. Alternatively, the profit risk calculation unit 120 may calculate the average and standard deviation of profits for a day, a month, or a season. In other words, the profit risk calculation unit 120 may calculate the average and standard deviation of profits for each predetermined period.

[0123] In step S37, the profit risk calculation unit 120 outputs the average value and standard deviation of the profit calculated in step S36 to the display unit 130.

[0124] Figure 7 shows an example of the display shown on the display unit 130. In Figure 7, the vertical axis represents the average profit over one year, and the horizontal axis represents the risk to that average profit. The display unit 130 displays the profit and risk when using at least one of the multiple types of procurement power sources.

[0125] For example, when a certain point is selected on the display unit 130, the procured power sources may be displayed as "Bilateral Contract," "Continuous BU," and "Spot Market," the unit prices for each procured power source may be "X yen," "Y yen," and "Z yen," respectively, and the procurement quantities for each procured power source may be "A," "B," and "C," respectively. Alternatively, when a different point is selected, the procured power sources may be displayed as "Bilateral Contract," "Continuous BU," "Spot Market," and "Self-Sourced Power Source," the unit prices for each procured power source may be "X yen," "Y yen," "Z yen," and "K yen," respectively, and the procurement quantities for each procured power source may be "A," "B," "C," and "D," respectively. In this way, the display unit 130 can display profits and risks according to the power source portfolio. In particular, since the displayed procured power sources include the "Spot Market," the display unit 130 can display profits and risks according to the risk burden unit price (Equation (2)) based on the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the spot market.

[0126] Alternatively, if a certain point is selected on the display unit 130, the proportion of the spot market may be displayed, at least for the unit price and the quantity of power procured. This is because power procurement from the spot market can be considered a source of risk, as described above.

[0127] Alternatively, when a certain point is selected on the display unit 130, at least the percentage of renewable energy procurement relative to the amount of power procured may be displayed. This is because renewable energy can also be considered a source of risk.

[0128] The example shown in Figure 7 displays profits and risks for one year, but profits and risks may also be displayed every 30 minutes, or for one month, or for a particular season. In other words, profits and risks may be displayed for each predetermined period.

[0129] Furthermore, while Figure 7 shows an example where the average profit and risk for the power portfolio are displayed as a graph, the average profit and risk may also be displayed in a table format, or the values ​​for average profit and risk may be displayed in a list format.

[0130] Returning to Figure 6, in step S38, the profit risk calculation unit 120 completes the series of processes.

[0131] (Another example 1 according to the first embodiment) In the first embodiment, an example was described in which the average and standard deviation of the spot market price are used to calculate the power procurement unit price (step S15 in Figure 4), the electricity procurement cost (step S30 in Figure 6), and the revenue (step S36). For example, the revenue risk calculation unit may use the predicted value and prediction error of the spot market price, respectively, instead of the average and standard deviation of the spot market price (an example of an electricity trading price), to calculate the profit and risk.

[0132] Figure 8 is a diagram showing another configuration example of the power portfolio creation support device 100 according to the first embodiment. As shown in Figure 8, the power portfolio creation support device 100 further includes a revenue risk prediction unit 150. The revenue risk prediction unit 150 obtains the average value of the spot market unit price from the electricity price average / variance DB 135 and creates a trained model using machine learning functionality. Then, the revenue risk prediction unit 150 uses the trained model to infer a predicted value of the spot market unit price from the spot market unit price obtained from the electricity price average / variance DB 135. The revenue risk prediction unit 150 may calculate the average value of the predicted values ​​and the prediction error based on multiple predicted values. The revenue risk prediction unit 150 outputs the predicted value of the spot market unit price and the prediction error to the revenue risk calculation unit 120.

[0133] Similarly, instead of the average and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price, the predicted value and prediction error of the imbalance charge unit price may be used. In this case as well, the revenue risk prediction unit 150 may use the trained model to infer the predicted value of the imbalance charge unit price and output it to the revenue risk calculation unit 120 along with the prediction error.

[0134] Furthermore, instead of the average value and standard deviation of renewable energy generation, predicted values ​​and prediction errors for renewable energy generation may be used. In this case as well, the revenue risk prediction unit 150 may create a trained model, use the trained model to infer predicted values ​​for renewable energy generation, and output them to the revenue risk calculation unit 120 along with the prediction error.

[0135] In the revenue risk calculation unit 120, profits and risks may be calculated using the predicted value and prediction error of the spot market unit price, respectively, instead of the average value and standard deviation of the spot market unit price. Alternatively, in the revenue risk calculation unit 120, profits and risks may be calculated using the predicted value and prediction error of the imbalance charge unit price, instead of the average value and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price. Furthermore, in the revenue risk calculation unit 120, profits and risks may be calculated using the predicted value and prediction error of the renewable energy generation amount, instead of the average value and standard deviation of the renewable energy generation amount.

[0136] (Another example 2 according to the first embodiment) Generally, while power generators have more control over the unit price of negotiated power sources than new power companies, new power companies have more control over the amount of negotiated power sources they procure. If the amount of negotiated power sources procured is excessive, there may be times when the supply exceeds the demand. Therefore, new power companies have a desire to decide on their negotiated power source procurement policy.

[0137] Therefore, as another example 2 according to the first embodiment, the procurement volume and unit price of relative power sources may be included as risks to the profits of the new power company. In other words, in addition to the spot market unit price, imbalance charge unit price, and the amount of renewable energy generated, the procurement volume and unit price of relative power sources may also be included as risks to the profits of the new power company.

[0138] Specifically, relative power sources are treated as "long-term procured power sources" and the total procurement amount is calculated (step S13 in Figure 4). Considering the procurement amount and unit price of relative power sources, the power procurement cost including relative power sources is calculated (step S31 in Figure 5). The average revenue and risk including relative power sources are then calculated (step S37). Consequently, the display unit 130 displays the profit and risk of the power source portfolio including relative power sources. The display unit 130 may also display the profit and risk when relative power sources are used for procurement and when all procured power sources are on the spot market.

[0139] (Another example 3 according to the first embodiment) In the first embodiment, an example was described in which a procurement plan creation unit 110, a revenue risk calculation unit 120, and a display unit 130 are included in the power portfolio creation support device 100. For example, at least one of the procurement plan creation unit 110, the revenue risk calculation unit 120, and the display unit 130 may exist as a separate device. In this case, the procurement plan creation unit 110 may be a procurement plan creation device, the revenue risk calculation unit 120 may be a revenue risk calculation device, and the display unit 130 may be a display device. The power portfolio creation support device 100 may also be a power port creation support system.

[0140] [Other embodiments] A program may be provided that causes a computer to execute each of the processes performed by the above-described device (power portfolio creation support device 100). The program may be recorded on a computer-readable medium. Using a computer-readable medium, it is possible to install the program on a computer. Here, the computer-readable medium on which the program is recorded may be a non-transient recording medium. The non-transient recording medium is not particularly limited, but may be a recording medium such as a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM. Furthermore, the circuits that execute each of the processes performed by the above-described device (power portfolio creation support device 100) may be integrated, and the device may be configured using a semiconductor integrated circuit (chipset, SoC).

[0141] Although the embodiments have been described in detail above with reference to the drawings, the specific configuration is not limited to those described above, and various design changes can be made without departing from the gist of the invention. Furthermore, it is possible to combine the various operation examples and processes within a range that does not contradict each other.

[0142] (Note) In summary, the following points can be noted.

[0143] (Note 1) It has a display unit that shows the benefits and risks of using at least one of the multiple types of procurement power sources, The display unit displays the profit and risk corresponding to the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market. Power supply portfolio creation support device.

[0144] (Note 2) The display unit displays the profit and the risk in accordance with the risk burden unit price based on the fluctuating risk. Power supply portfolio creation support device as described in Appendix 1.

[0145] (Note 3) The aforementioned fluctuation risk is the standard deviation of the electricity trading price. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in Appendix 1 or Appendix 2.

[0146] (Note 4) The aforementioned risk burden unit price is expressed based on the standard deviation of the electricity trading price and a predetermined coefficient that can be set. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in any of Appendix 1 to Appendix 3.

[0147] (Note 5) The aforementioned risk burden unit price and the standard deviation of the aforementioned electricity trading price are expressed in 30-minute intervals. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in any of Appendix 1 to Appendix 4.

[0148] (Note 6) The system further includes a profit and risk calculation unit that calculates the profit and risk when using any of the aforementioned procurement power sources, based on at least one of the following for each predetermined period: the average and standard deviation of the electricity trading price, the average and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price, and the average and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in any of Appendix 1 to Appendix 5.

[0149] (Note 7) The system further includes a revenue risk calculation unit that calculates the profit and risk when using any of the aforementioned procurement power sources, based on at least one of the following for each predetermined period: the predicted value and prediction error of the electricity trading price, the predicted value and prediction error of the imbalance charge unit price, and the predicted value and prediction error of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in any of Appendix 1 to Appendix 5.

[0150] (Note 8) The system further includes a procurement planning unit that selects the procurement power source based on a value obtained by adding or subtracting the risk burden unit price to the average value of the aforementioned electricity trading price, and the unit price of other aforementioned procurement power sources. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in any of Appendix 1 to Appendix 7.

[0151] (Note 9) The procurement planning unit selects the electricity trading market as the procurement source if the sum obtained by adding the risk burden unit price to the average electricity trading price is lower than the unit price of the other procurement sources, and selects the other procurement sources as the procurement source if the unit price of the other procurement sources is lower than the sum obtained. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in any of Appendix 1 to Appendix 8.

[0152] (Note 10) The procurement planning unit selects the electricity trading market if the subtraction value obtained by subtracting the risk burden unit price from the average electricity trading price is lower than the unit price of the other procurement power sources, and selects the other procurement power sources if the unit price of the other procurement power sources is lower than the subtraction value. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in any of Appendix 1 to Appendix 9.

[0153] (Note 11) The aforementioned procurement planning unit selects the procurement power source in 30-minute increments. A power supply portfolio creation support device as described in any of Appendix 1 to Appendix 10.

[0154] (Note 12) For the power portfolio creation support device, The process of displaying the benefits and risks of using at least one of the multiple types of procurement power sources on the display unit is performed. The aforementioned display process includes a process of displaying the aforementioned profit and risk in the display unit in accordance with the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market. program.

[0155] (Note 13) A method of display, The system includes a step of displaying the benefits and risks of using at least one of several types of procurement power sources on a display unit, The aforementioned display step includes displaying the profit and risk corresponding to the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market on the display unit. Display method. [Explanation of symbols]

[0156] 100: Power portfolio creation support device 110: Procurement plan creation department 120: Profit Risk Calculation Unit 130: Display Unit 135: Electricity price average / variance DB 140: Electricity price average / variance calculation unit 150: Earnings Risk Forecasting Department

Claims

1. It has a display unit that shows the benefits and risks of using at least one of the multiple types of procurement power sources, The display unit displays the profit and risk corresponding to the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market. Power supply portfolio creation support device.

2. The display unit displays the profit and the risk in accordance with the risk burden unit price based on the fluctuating risk. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 1.

3. The aforementioned fluctuation risk is the standard deviation of the electricity trading price. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 2.

4. The aforementioned risk burden unit price is expressed based on the standard deviation of the electricity trading price and a predetermined coefficient that can be set. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 3.

5. The aforementioned risk burden unit price and the standard deviation of the electricity trading price are expressed in 30-minute intervals. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 4.

6. The system further includes a profit and risk calculation unit that calculates the profit and risk when using any of the aforementioned procurement power sources, based on at least one of the following for each predetermined period: the average and standard deviation of the electricity trading price, the average and standard deviation of the imbalance charge unit price, and the average and standard deviation of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 1.

7. The system further includes a revenue risk calculation unit that calculates the profit and risk when using any of the aforementioned procurement power sources, based on at least one of the following for each predetermined period: the predicted value and prediction error of the electricity trading price, the predicted value and prediction error of the imbalance charge unit price, and the predicted value and prediction error of the amount of electricity generated from renewable energy. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 1.

8. The system further includes a procurement planning unit that selects the procurement power source based on a value obtained by adding or subtracting the risk burden unit price to the average value of the aforementioned electricity trading price, and the unit price of other aforementioned procurement power sources. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 1.

9. The procurement planning unit selects the electricity trading market as the procurement source if the sum obtained by adding the risk burden unit price to the average electricity trading price is lower than the unit price of the other procurement sources, and selects the other procurement sources as the procurement source if the unit price of the other procurement sources is lower than the sum obtained. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 8.

10. The procurement planning unit selects the electricity trading market if the subtraction value obtained by subtracting the risk burden unit price from the average electricity trading price is lower than the unit price of the other procurement power sources, and selects the other procurement power sources if the unit price of the other procurement power sources is lower than the subtraction value. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 8.

11. The aforementioned procurement planning unit selects the procurement power source in 30-minute increments. The power supply portfolio creation support device according to claim 8.

12. For the power portfolio creation support device, The process of displaying the benefits and risks of using at least one of the multiple types of procurement power sources on the display unit is performed. The aforementioned display process includes a process of displaying the aforementioned profit and risk in the display unit in accordance with the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market. program.

13. A method of display, The system includes a step of displaying the benefits and risks of using at least one of several types of procurement power sources on a display unit, The aforementioned display step includes displaying the profit and risk corresponding to the fluctuation risk of electricity trading prices in the electricity trading market on the display unit. Display method.

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