Electricity supply and demand adjustment device, electricity supply and demand adjustment method, and program

Abstract

To provide a power supply / demand adjustment apparatus which properly adjusts power supply / demand in accordance with a bilateral contract which can flexibly change a power buying / selling amount regarding power transaction between a power generation BG and a demand BG, a power supply / demand adjustment method, and a program.SOLUTION: In a power system, a power supply / demand adjustment apparatus (information processing apparatus 5) includes: a power generation BG planning unit which formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan of a power generation BG (Balancing Group); a demand BG planning unit which formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan of a demand BG which has a bilateral contract of power transaction with the power generation BG; and a power market transaction unit price prediction unit which predicts a power market transaction unit price which is a unit price of power transaction in a power transaction market, and outputs a power market transaction unit price prediction value. The power generation BG planning unit adjusts a power selling amount to the power transaction market and a power selling amount to the demand BG in the sales plan in accordance with the power market transaction unit price prediction value. The demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with the adjustment of the power selling amount to the demand BG in the sales plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a power supply and demand adjustment device, a power supply and demand adjustment method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, balancing groups (hereinafter referred to as "BG") have been used as a group of businesses that settle imbalances (differences between plans and results) in electricity trading. BGs include generation BGs made up of power generation businesses and demand BGs made up of consumers (e.g., retail electricity businesses).

[0003] Since the power generation BG works to balance the amount of electricity simultaneously across the board, it can reduce the risk of imbalances. In addition, the power generation BG can sell the electricity it generates to its counterpart, the demand BG, and to the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 2021-47519 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] For example, when the price of electricity trading on JEPX rises, a generation BG may want to sell less electricity to its bilateral contract counterpart, the demand BG, and sell more electricity on JEPX. However, in the bilateral contracts for electricity trading up to now, the amount of electricity traded during a unit period is generally fixed, so it is not possible to change the amount of electricity traded for each purchase destination. Also, for the demand BG, if the amount of electricity purchased from the generation BG decreases, there will be a shortage of electricity, so there will be no motivation to take such measures unless there is some benefit.

[0006] Therefore, an object of an embodiment of the present invention is to provide a power supply and demand adjustment device, a power supply and demand adjustment method, and a program that can appropriately adjust power supply and demand in accordance with a bilateral contract that allows the amount of power purchased and sold to be flexibly changed in power trading between a power generation BG and a demand BG. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The power supply and demand adjustment device of the embodiment includes a power generation BG (Balancing Group) planning unit that formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for a power generation BG, a demand BG planning unit that formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for a demand BG that has a bilateral power trading contract with the power generation BG, and a power market trading unit price prediction unit that predicts a power market trading unit price, which is the unit price of power trading in the power trading market, and outputs a power market trading unit price prediction value. The power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price prediction value, and the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan according to the adjustment of the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic overview of the entire power system according to the embodiment. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a first modification of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment. [Diagram 3] FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a second modification of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the information processing apparatus according to the embodiment. [Diagram 5] FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a first objective function in the embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a second objective function in the embodiment. [Figure 7]FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram of the evaluation of the demand imbalance risk and its reflection in the demand BG procurement unit price in the embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of an evaluation of a power generation imbalance risk and its reflection in a power source output adjustment unit price in the embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating the process performed by the information processing apparatus according to the embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0009] Hereinafter, a power supply and demand adjustment device, a power supply and demand adjustment method, and a program according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings. In the following description, "system" means a power system, "consumer" means a power consumer, and "load" means a power load.

[0010] DR (Demand Response) refers to adjusting the amount of electricity consumed by consumers in order to balance the supply and demand of electricity. DR that lowers electricity demand by reducing the amount of electricity consumed by consumers is called "lower DR." DR that raises electricity demand by increasing the amount of electricity consumed by consumers is called "upper DR." Rewards (e.g., money) given to consumers in response to DR are called incentives.

[0011] In addition, the compensation imposed on consumers and retailers who do not comply with DR is called a "penalty." Note that the existence of incentives and penalties, and the calculation method of the amount if there are any, may differ depending on the system at the time.

[0012] First, an overall overview of a power system S of an embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. Fig. 1 is a block diagram that shows a schematic overview of the overall power system S of an embodiment. The power system S includes a grid operator system 1, a market trading system 2 (power trading market), a power generation BG3, and a demand BG4.

[0013] The grid operator system 1 is a system used by a grid operator who operates a power grid to supply commercial power.

[0014] The market trading system 2 is, for example, an electricity market trading system used by JEPX. Hereinafter, the market trading system 2 may be referred to as “JEPX.”

[0015] The power generation BG 3 is a BG by the power generation companies 31 (31a, 31b). When there is no need to distinguish between the power generation companies A 31a and B 31b, they are simply referred to as the power generation company 31. The same applies to other configurations.

[0016] The power generation business operator 31 includes a renewable energy power generation resource 311 (hereinafter also simply referred to as "renewable energy") and an adjustable power source resource 312 (hereinafter also referred to as "adjustable power source" or "power source"). The renewable energy power generation resource 311 is a power generation resource that uses renewable energy (solar power, wind power, biomass, hydroelectric power, geothermal power, etc.). Note that the power generated by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 is often purchased at a purchase price higher than the electricity market price under a Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system or a Feed-in-Premium (FIP) system. Therefore, it is expected that the use of the renewable energy power generation resource 311 will progress in the future.

[0017] The adjustable power resource 312 is, for example, a power generation resource that uses non-renewable energy (thermal power, atomic power, etc.).

[0018] The demand BG4 is a BG provided by a consumer 41 (for example, an electricity retailer, etc.). The consumer 41 includes a load 411, a storage battery 412, and a renewable energy power generation resource 413.

[0019] The load 411 is a device or equipment that consumes power.

[0020] The storage battery 412 is a battery that can be repeatedly charged and discharged, and is also called a secondary battery or battery.

[0021] The renewable energy power generation resource 413 is a power generation resource that uses renewable energy.

[0022] Then, a bilateral contract for power trading is concluded between the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4. The power generation BG3 can sell the generated power to the demand BG4, which is the counterpart of the bilateral contract, and to the market trading system 2.

[0023] For example, when the electricity trading price in the market trading system 2 rises, the power generation BG3 may want to reduce the electricity it sells to its bilateral contract partner, the demand BG4, and increase the electricity it sells in the market trading system 2.

[0024] However, in the past, in bilateral contracts for electricity trading, the amount of electricity traded during a unit period was generally fixed, so it was not possible to change the amount of electricity for each purchase destination. Also, for demand BG4, if the amount of electricity purchased from generation BG3 decreases, there will be a shortage of electricity, so unless there is some benefit, there will be no motivation to take such measures.

[0025] First, consider a bilateral contract that allows the amount of power bought and sold to be flexibly changed in the power trading between power generation BG3 and demand BG4. Then, in accordance with such a bilateral contract, for example, power generation BG3 can reduce the amount of power it sells to demand BG4 and increase the amount of power it sells to the market trading system 2, and share the profits gained from this between power generation BG3 and demand BG4, which will be beneficial not only for power generation BG3 but also for demand BG4. The following describes a technology that can appropriately adjust power supply and demand in accordance with a bilateral contract that allows the amount of power bought and sold to be flexibly changed in this way.

[0026] A first modification example of each of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 2. Fig. 2 is a diagram showing a schematic diagram of the first modification example of each of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment.

[0027] Figure 2(a) shows the state before the adjustment of power supply and demand. As shown in Figure 2(a1), a power generation plan and a sales plan are formulated for power generation BG3. In this example, the power generation plan includes renewable energy BG (power generated by renewable energy BG) and thermal power BG (power generated by thermal power BG).

[0028] In addition, the sales destinations in the sales plan include the relative retail BG (demand BG4) and JEPX (market trading system 2).

[0029] 2(a2), a demand plan and a procurement plan are formulated for demand BG4. In this example, power generation BG3 (relative procurement) is determined as the procurement source in the procurement plan in response to demand BG (demanded power by demand BG) in the demand plan.

[0030] Here, assume that the electricity trading price in JEPX (market trading system 2) is expected to rise in the hourly market. In that case, as shown in Figure 2 (b1), generation BG3 wants to reduce the relative retail BG in its sales plan and increase JEPX. In addition, since it is a relative contract that allows the amount of electricity purchased and sold to be changed flexibly, as shown in Figure 2 (b2), it can reduce demand by lowering DR in the demand plan of demand BG4, and accordingly reduce relative procurement in the procurement plan.

[0031] Let us now consider the case where the downward DR fails. The following three cases (1) to (3) can be cited as examples of the failure of the downward DR. (1) Generation BG3 requested lowering DR from demand BG4, but demand BG4 refused. (2) Demand BG4 accepted the downward DR, but its subordinate consumer 41 rejected it. (3) Both demand BG4 and consumer 41 accepted the downward DR, but consumer 41 was unable to actually reduce its power consumption.

[0032] When evaluating (predicting) the risk of failure of downward DR, the calculation method may differ between (1), (2), and (3). Also, if the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4 are different players, any of (1) to (3) may occur. Also, if the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4 are the same player, (1) does not occur, but (2) and (3) may occur.

[0033] Then, as shown in FIG. 2(c1), in power generation BG3, the power generation results realize the power generation plan in FIG. 2(b1), and the sales results also realize the sales plan in FIG. 2(b1).

[0034] On the other hand, as shown in Figure 2(c2), after Gate Close (hereinafter also referred to as "GC"), in demand BG4, neither the demand actual nor the procurement actual realizes the demand plan and procurement plan in Figure 2(b2), respectively, and it needs to be settled as a demand imbalance.

[0035] For example, if the demand imbalance is low and the loss due to the demand imbalance is taken into account, it is sufficient if the profit gained by changing the sales volume of electricity to each purchaser in power generation BG3 is enough to generate a total profit. Therefore, if such a prediction can be made in advance, it is possible to make a decision to change the sales volume of electricity to each purchaser in power generation BG3.

[0036] In addition, demand BG4 can also choose to purchase the electricity shortage from JEPX.

[0037] Next, Fig. 3 is a diagram showing a second modified example of each plan of power generation and demand in the embodiment. Fig. 2 explains the case where downward DR fails, but Fig. 3 explains the case where the amount of power generation by renewable energy is less than planned. Fig. 3(a)(b) is the same as Fig. 2(a)(b).

[0038] Also, as shown in FIG. 3(c2), the demand plan and procurement plan for demand BG4 are both similar to those in FIG. 3(b2).

[0039] As shown in Figure 3(c1), after GC, the actual power generation performance of the power generation BG3 does not achieve the power generation plan in Figure 3(b1). In other words, the thermal power BG's actual performance is the same as the plan, but the renewable energy BG's actual performance is less than the plan. In this case, the following measures (11) and (12) can be considered to address the shortfall in power generation.

[0040] (11) Switch to another power source within power generation BG3 (alternative power generation) (12) Settlement as power generation imbalance

[0041] And, for example, even if the cost increase due to the implementation of (11) or (12) is taken into account, it is sufficient if there is an overall profit due to the profit gained from changing the sales volume of electricity to each purchaser in Power Generation BG3. Therefore, if such a prediction can be made in advance, it is possible to make a decision that the sales volume of electricity to each purchaser in Power Generation BG3 should be changed.

[0042] So far, we have explained the case where a downward DR is made when an increase in the electricity trading price on JEPX is expected, but the same applies to the opposite case where an upward DR is made when a decrease in the electricity trading price on JEPX is expected.

[0043] The trading strategy, post-GC risks, and countermeasures for power generation BG3 in the cases where the electricity trading market price rises and falls in the hourly market are summarized as follows.

[0044] (If the electricity trading market price rises in the pre-hours market) (Trading strategy 1) Lower DR increases JEPX electricity sales (Risk after GC 1) Downward DR failure (Countermeasure 1) Evaluate the risk of failure of the down DR and adjust the amount of down DR (Countermeasure 2) Accepting demand imbalance (Countermeasure 1 not implemented)

[0045] (Risk 2 after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Countermeasure 1) Increase or decrease the lower DR (plan) (Solution 2) Replacement with regulated power source (planned) (Solution 3) Replace with regulated power source (control) (Countermeasure 4) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 to 3 not implemented)

[0046] (Trading strategy 2) Increase in regulated power output leads to increased electricity sales to JEPX (Risks after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Solution 1) Replacement with regulated power source (planned) (Solution 2) Replace with regulated power source (control) (Countermeasure 3) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 and 2 not implemented)

[0047] (When the electricity trading market price falls in the pre-hours market) (Trading strategy 1) Increased DR reduces JEPX electricity sales (Risk 1 after GC) Failure to raise DR (Countermeasure 1) Evaluate the risk of failure of the up-DR and adjust the amount of up-DR (Countermeasure 2) Accepting demand imbalance (Countermeasure 1 not implemented)

[0048] (Risk 2 after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Countermeasure 1) Decrease or increase the DR (plan) (Solution 2) Replacement with regulated power source (planned) (Solution 3) Replace with regulated power source (control) (Countermeasure 4) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 to 3 not implemented)

[0049] (Trading strategy 2) Decrease in JEPX power sales due to decrease in regulated power output (Risks after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Solution 1) Replacement with regulated power source (planned) (Solution 2) Replace with regulated power source (control) (Countermeasure 3) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 and 2 not implemented)

[0050] Next, an information processing device 5 (electricity supply and demand adjustment device) according to an embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 4. Fig. 4 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of the information processing device 5 according to an embodiment. The information processing device 5 is, for example, a PC (Personal Computer).

[0051] The information processing device 5 includes a storage unit 51, an input unit 52, a display unit 53, a communication unit 54, and a processing unit 55.

[0052] The storage unit 51 is realized by, for example, a random access memory (RAM), a read only memory (ROM), a solid state drive (SSD), a hard disk drive (HDD), etc., and stores various information. The storage unit 51 stores, for example, various setting values, various parameters, a predetermined objective function, various calculation results, etc. The storage unit 51 includes a database (DB) 511.

[0053] DB511 stores information such as the power generation BG unit price (power supply output adjustment unit price), the power supply output change range, the demand adjustment range, the demand BG adjustment unit price (for consumers / for demand BG) (also referred to as the "demand adjustment unit price"), the electricity market trading unit price (or predicted value), and the power generation / demand imbalance unit price (or predicted value) (details will be described later).

[0054] The input unit 52 is a means for an operator to input various operations, and is, for example, a mouse, a keyboard, a touch panel, or the like.

[0055] The display unit 53 is a means for displaying information, and is, for example, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), a touch panel, or the like.

[0056] The communication unit 54 is a communication interface for communicating with an external device.

[0057] The processing unit 55 is realized by, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and executes various calculation processes. The processing unit 55 includes, for example, an acquisition unit 551, a renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 552, a power market trading unit price prediction unit 553, an imbalance unit price prediction unit 554, a power generation BG planning unit 555, a demand BG planning unit 556, an incentive calculation unit 557, a profit allocation calculation unit 558, and a display control unit 559 as functional units.

[0058] The acquisition unit 551 acquires various information from the grid operator system 1, the market trading system 2, the power generation BG 3, the demand BG 4, the DB 511, and the like.

[0059] The renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 552 predicts the amount of power generated by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 and the renewable energy power generation resource 413 based on past data, weather data, and the like.

[0060] The electricity market trading unit price prediction unit 553 predicts the electricity market trading unit price, which is the unit price of electricity trading in the market trading system 2, and outputs a predicted value of the electricity market trading unit price.

[0061] The imbalance cost prediction unit 554 predicts the power generation imbalance cost and the demand imbalance cost.

[0062] The power generation BG planning unit 555 formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for the power generation BG 3. The power generation BG planning unit 555 adjusts the amount of power sold to the market trading system 2 and the amount of power sold to the demand BG 4 in the sales plan according to the predicted value of the power market trading unit price.

[0063] The power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the priority order of the power sources to adjust the output based on the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, which is the cost unit price of the output of the power source (adjustable power source resource 312) of the power generation BG3.

[0064] The power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the amount of electricity to be sold to the market trading system 2 in the sales plan based on the priority of the power source that adjusts the output and the priority of the demand resource that adjusts the demand (determined by the demand BG planning unit 556).

[0065] The power generation BG planning unit 555 predicts the risk of power generation imbalance due to fluctuations in the output of the power sources of the power generation BG3 after GC in the market trading system 2, calculates an expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of power generation imbalance as a power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflects the power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value in the power generation BG unit price.

[0066] The demand BG planning unit 556 formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for the demand BG4 that has a bilateral power trading contract with the power generation BG3. The demand BG planning unit 556 adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with the adjustment of the amount of power sold to the demand BG3 in the sales plan.

[0067] The demand BG planning unit 556 determines the priority of the demand resources for which demand is to be adjusted based on the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, which is the cost unit price related to adjusting the demand plan and procurement plan of the demand resources (load 411, storage battery 412, etc.) of the demand BG3.

[0068] The demand BG planning unit 556 predicts the risk of demand imbalance due to the adjustment of demand resources in the demand plan not being carried out as planned after GC, calculates the expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of demand imbalance as a demand imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflects the demand imbalance profit and loss expected value in the demand BG adjustment unit price.

[0069] The incentive calculation unit 557 calculates an incentive amount for the adjustment of the demand plan and the procurement plan by the demand BG planning unit 556.

[0070] The profit allocation calculation unit 558 calculates the allocation of the profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan to the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4.

[0071] The display control unit 559 displays various information on the display unit 53. The display control unit 559 causes the display unit 53 to display, for example, the power generation BG unit price, the demand BG adjustment unit price, the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, the power generation imbalance profit / loss expectation value of the power source, the demand imbalance profit / loss expectation value of the demand resource, the penalty when the adjustment of the demand resource is not performed as planned, and the profit expected to be obtained by adjusting the sales plan.

[0072] Here, FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a first objective function in an embodiment. Processing using the example of the first objective function is performed, for example, by the power generation BG planning unit 555 cooperating with the demand BG planning unit 556 and the like. Here, the profit in the coordinated BG (power generation BG3 and demand BG4) is maximized. Therefore, the relative electricity sales revenue and demand adjustment cost (between BGs), which are transactions between the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4, are not taken into consideration. In addition, the power generation imbalance and the demand imbalance are paid to the power transmission and distribution company 9. Then, the maximization of the following objective function F1 is considered.

[0073] Objective function F1 = "Electricity sales revenue from market trading system 2 (JEPX) (= market trading volume x market trading price)" - "Power generation cost (= power generation BG unit price x power generation amount)" - "Demand adjustment cost (to consumers) (= consumer adjustment unit price x demand adjustment amount)" - "Power generation imbalance (forecast value)" - "Demand imbalance (forecast)"

[0074] A calculation is performed to maximize the value of this objective function F1, and each parameter (electricity market trading volume, power generation volume, demand adjustment volume, etc.) is determined.

[0075] In addition, the power generation imbalance (forecast value) (power generation imbalance profit / loss expected value) is incorporated (reflected) in the power generation BG unit price, and the demand imbalance (forecast value) (demand imbalance profit / loss expected value) is incorporated (reflected) in the demand BG adjustment unit price, so that they are handled in a merit order that takes the imbalances into account.

[0076] Next, Fig. 6 is an explanatory diagram of a second objective function example in the embodiment. The process using the second objective function example is performed, for example, by the power generation BG planning unit 555. Here, the profit of the power generation BG3 is maximized. Then, the maximization of the following objective function F2 is considered.

[0077] Objective function F2 = "Electricity sales revenue from market trading system 2 (JEPX) (= market trading volume x market trading price)" + "Relative electricity sales revenue" - "Demand adjustment cost (between BGs) (= demand BG adjustment unit price x demand adjustment amount)" - "Power generation cost (= power generation BG unit price x power generation amount)" - "Power generation imbalance (forecast value)"

[0078] A calculation is performed to maximize the value of this objective function F2, and each parameter (electricity market trading volume, power generation volume, demand adjustment volume, etc.) is determined.

[0079] In addition, the power generation imbalance (forecasted value) (expected power generation imbalance profit / loss value) is incorporated (reflected) in the power generation BG unit price, and is handled in a merit order that takes the imbalance into account.

[0080] Next, FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram of an evaluation of a demand imbalance risk and its reflection in a demand BG procurement unit price in the embodiment.

[0081] 7A shows characteristic information of a DR amount α and an expected value β of an imbalance with respect to α. This characteristic information is created based on, for example, the characteristics of a demand resource.

[0082] Moreover, FIG. 7(b) shows characteristic information of the DR amount α and the demand adjustment unit price. The characteristic when imbalance is not taken into consideration is line L2. And the characteristic when imbalance is taken into consideration is line L1. Specifically, first, the imbalance unit price forecast value γ is obtained, and the characteristic of α, which is the expected value of imbalance profit and loss, β×γ, is superimposed on the characteristic of the demand adjustment unit price to obtain line L1.

[0083] FIG. 7(c) shows the optimal value in the planning stage. In this case, FIG. 7(c2) shows the DR amount α. FIG. 7(d) shows the expected value when DR fails. In this case, FIG. 7(c2) shows the imbalance expected value β.

[0084] In this way, the assessment of the demand imbalance risk can be reflected in the demand BG procurement unit price.

[0085] Next, FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of an evaluation of a power generation imbalance risk and its reflection on a power source output adjustment unit price in the embodiment.

[0086] First, Figure 8(a) shows characteristic information on the forecast error risk (risk of decline) and the shortage imbalance risk (lack of margin of increase) of renewable energy output. Note that, as shown on the left side of the graph, if the output error falls within the margin of increase, the imbalance will be zero. Figure 8(b) shows characteristic information on the regulating power output and margin of increase.

[0087] Figure 8(c) shows the optimal value at the planning stage. In Figure 8(c1), the electricity trading price at JEPX is higher than in Figure 7(c1), so the thermal power BG is increased by the amount indicated by the symbol S in the power generation plan, and accordingly, JEPX is increased by the amount indicated by the symbol T in the sales plan.

[0088] Fig. 8(d) shows a case where the renewable energy output falls below the predicted value. In this case, as shown in Fig. 8(d1), the thermal power BG has already reached the upper limit of the possible output range in Fig. 8(c1), so the decrease in the renewable energy output after GC cannot be countered by increasing the thermal power BG, and an imbalance shown by the symbol U occurs.

[0089] In this way, the shortfall imbalance risk is calculated from the margin of error determined by the output of regulated power sources and the risk of errors in the renewable energy output forecast, multiplied by the imbalance cost, and added to the power generation BG cost to reflect this.

[0090] Next, the processing by the information processing device 5 of the embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 9. Fig. 9 is a flowchart showing the processing by the information processing device 5 of the embodiment. Note that, in the following, with regard to processing other than the processing specific to this embodiment (for example, the formulation of a power generation plan, a sales plan, a demand plan, a procurement plan, etc. before supply and demand adjustment), it is assumed that the same processing as in the past is performed even if no explanation is given.

[0091] First, in step S1, the renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 552 predicts the amount of power generated by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 and the renewable energy power generation resource 413 based on past data, weather data, and the like.

[0092] Next, in step S2, the electricity market trading unit price prediction unit 553 predicts the electricity market trading unit price and outputs the electricity market trading unit price prediction value.

[0093] Next, in step S3, the acquisition unit 551 acquires power output adjustment unit price information from the DB 511.

[0094] Next, in step S4, the acquisition unit 551 acquires power output changeable range information from the DB 511.

[0095] Next, in step S5, the acquisition unit 551 acquires the demand adjustment unit price information from the DB 511.

[0096] Next, in step S6, the acquisition unit 551 acquires the demand adjustable range information from the DB 511.

[0097] Next, in step S7, the acquisition unit 551 acquires the demand adjustment incentive unit price information from the DB 511.

[0098] Next, in step S8, the imbalance cost prediction unit 554 predicts the power generation imbalance cost and the demand imbalance cost.

[0099] Next, in step S9, the power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the priority and adjustment amount of the power sources to adjust the output based on the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, which is the cost unit price of the output of the power source of the power generation BG3 (adjustable power source resource 312).

[0100] Next, in step S10, the demand BG planning unit 556 determines the priority and adjustment amount of the demand resources to be adjusted based on the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, which is the cost unit price related to adjusting the demand plan and procurement plan of the demand resources (load 411, storage battery 412, etc.) of demand BG3.

[0101] Next, in step S11, the power generation BG planner 555 calculates a power generation imbalance profit / loss expectation value based on the risk of power generation imbalance, and reflects the power generation imbalance profit / loss expectation value in the power output adjustment unit price information (power generation BG unit price).

[0102] Next, in step S12, the demand BG planning unit 556 calculates a demand imbalance profit / loss expectation value based on the risk of demand imbalance, and reflects the demand imbalance profit / loss expectation value in the demand adjustment unit price information.

[0103] Next, in step S13, the power generation BG planner 555 performs calculations to maximize the values ​​of the objective functions (F1, F2) and determines each parameter (electricity market trading volume, power generation volume, demand adjustment volume, etc.).

[0104] Next, in step S14, the display control unit 559 causes the display unit 53 to display, for example, the power generation BG unit price of the power source of power generation BG3, the demand BG adjustment unit price of the demand resource of demand BG4, the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, the power generation imbalance profit / loss expected value of the power source and the demand imbalance profit / loss expected value of the demand resource, the penalty if the adjustment of the demand resource is not carried out as planned, and the profit expected to be earned by adjusting the sales plan.

[0105] In this way, according to the information processing device 5 of the present embodiment, on the premise of a bilateral contract that allows the amount of power purchased and sold to be flexibly changed in the power transaction between the power generation BG3 and the power demand BG4, it is possible to appropriately adjust the power supply and demand in accordance with the bilateral contract. Therefore, it contributes to the promotion of such bilateral contracts.

[0106] In addition, by calculating the allocation of the profits gained by adjusting the sales plan to power generation BG3 and demand BG4 and sharing the profits between power generation BG3 and demand BG4, benefits from supply and demand adjustments will accrue not only to power generation BG3 but also to demand BG4.

[0107] In addition, by calculating the amount of incentives for adjusting the demand plan and procurement plan and providing the incentives, consumers who respond to DR can also benefit. In addition, incentives can be paid using the profits gained from adjusting the sales plan.

[0108] In addition, the priority order of power sources that adjust output based on the merit order of power generation BG unit prices is determined, and further, the priority order of demand resources that adjust demand based on the merit order of demand BG adjustment unit prices is determined. Based on these, the amount of electricity to be sold to the electricity trading market in the sales plan can be more appropriately determined.

[0109] In addition, by reflecting the expected value of power generation imbalance profit and loss calculated based on the risk of power generation imbalance in the power generation BG unit price, and reflecting the expected value of demand imbalance profit and loss calculated based on the risk of demand imbalance in the demand BG adjustment unit price, a simple and highly accurate objective function can be realized. In addition, it is possible to obtain calculation results that appropriately reflect the imbalance risk due to the uncertainty of renewable energy output after GC and the realization of DR.

[0110] In addition, by displaying various information regarding supply and demand adjustment (power generation BG unit price and merit order, demand BG adjustment unit price and merit order, power generation imbalance profit / loss expected value, demand imbalance profit / loss expected value, penalties if demand resource adjustment is not carried out as planned, profits expected to be gained by adjusting the sales plan, etc.), users can use it as material for their consideration.

[0111] The program executed by the information processing device 5 of this embodiment may be provided by being recorded in an installable or executable format on a computer-readable recording medium such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk (FD), a CD-R, or a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk).

[0112] The program may be stored on a computer connected to a network such as the Internet and provided by being downloaded via the network. The program may be provided or distributed via a network such as the Internet.

[0113] The program may also be provided in a state where it is pre-installed in a ROM or the like.

[0114] Although some embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These novel embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and spirit of the invention, and are included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents described in the claims.

[0115] For example, in the above embodiment, the case where the profit is maximized is described as an example of the case where the predetermined condition regarding the profit is satisfied, but the present invention is not limited to this. Other conditions, such as the profit being equal to or greater than a predetermined amount, may also be used.

[0116] Furthermore, an aggregator that adjusts the supply and demand balance of the power grid may be present in the power system S. In that case, for example, the aggregator adjusts the supply and demand balance of the power grid in a large unit that aggregates a plurality of power generation BG3 and a plurality of demand BG4.

[0117] It is not always necessary to perform all of the processes in the above-described embodiment. For example, the incentive calculation process may be treated as an option and not be performed.

[0118] The objective function may also reflect all monetary inflows and outflows, or it may deal only with changes in monetary inflows and outflows from a baseline situation. [Explanation of symbols]

[0119] 1...system operator, 2...market trading system, 3...power generation BG, 4...demand BG, 5...information processing device, 9...power transmission and distribution company, 31...power generation company, 41...consumer, 51...storage unit, 52...input unit, 53...display unit, 54...communication unit, 55...processing unit, 311...renewable energy power generation resource, 312...adjustable power source resource, 411...load, 412...storage battery, 413...renewable energy power generation resource, 551...acquisition unit, 552...renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit, 553...electricity market trading unit price prediction unit, 554...imbalance unit price prediction unit, 555...power generation BG planning unit, 556...demand BG planning unit, 557...incentive calculation unit, 558...profit distribution calculation unit, 559...display control unit, S...power system

Claims

1. A Power Generation BG (Balancing Group) Planning Department that formulates power generation plans and sales plans for the Power Generation BG; a demand BG planning unit that formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for a demand BG that has a bilateral contract for power trading with the power generation BG; and an electricity market trading unit price prediction unit that predicts an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in the electricity trading market, and outputs an electricity market trading unit price prediction value. The power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price forecast value, The demand BG planning unit is an electric power supply and demand adjustment device that adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with adjustments to the amount of electric power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan.

2. The power supply and demand adjustment device according to claim 1 , further comprising a profit allocation calculation unit that calculates an allocation of profits obtained by adjusting the sales plan to the power generation BG and the demand BG.

3. The power supply and demand adjusting device according to claim 1 , further comprising an incentive calculation unit that calculates an incentive amount for adjustment of the demand plan and the procurement plan by the demand BG planning unit.

4. The power generation BG planning unit determining a priority order of the power sources for adjusting the output based on a merit order of a power generation BG unit price, which is a cost unit price of the output of the power source of the power generation BG; The demand BG planning unit determining a priority order of the demand resources for which demand is adjusted based on a merit order of a demand BG adjustment unit price, which is a cost unit price related to the adjustment of the demand plan and the procurement plan of the demand resources of the demand BG; The power generation BG planning unit The power supply and demand adjustment device according to claim 1 , further comprising: a power sales amount to the power trading market in the sales plan determined based on a priority of the power source that adjusts output and a priority of the demand resource that adjusts demand.

5. The power generation BG planning unit predicting a risk of power generation imbalance due to fluctuations in the output of the power source of the power generation BG after the gate of the electricity trading market is closed, calculating an expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of the power generation imbalance as a power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflecting the power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value in the power generation BG unit price; The demand BG planning unit 5. The power supply and demand adjustment device according to claim 4, which predicts a risk of demand imbalance due to adjustment of the demand resource in the demand plan not being carried out as planned after the gate is closed, calculates an expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of the demand imbalance as a demand imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflects the demand imbalance profit and loss expected value in the demand BG adjustment unit price.

6. The power supply and demand adjustment device of claim 5, further comprising a display control unit that causes a display unit to display the power generation BG unit price, the demand BG adjustment unit price, the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, the power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value of the power source, the demand imbalance profit and loss expected value of the demand resource, a penalty if the adjustment of the demand resource is not carried out as planned, and the profit expected to be obtained by adjusting the sales plan.

7. A power generation BG planning step in which a power generation BG planning department formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for the power generation BG; a demand BG planning step in which a demand BG planning unit formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for a demand BG that has a bilateral contract for power trading with the power generation BG; an electricity market trading unit price prediction step in which an electricity market trading unit price prediction unit predicts an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in the electricity trading market, and outputs an electricity market trading unit price prediction value; In the power generation BG planning step, the power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price forecast value; An electricity supply and demand adjustment method, in which, in the demand BG planning step, the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with an adjustment of the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan.

8. On the computer, a power generation BG planning step of formulating a power generation plan and a sales plan for the power generation BG; a demand BG planning step of formulating a demand plan and a procurement plan for a demand BG that has a bilateral contract for power trading with the power generation BG; An electricity market trading unit price prediction step of predicting an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in an electricity trading market, and outputting an electricity market trading unit price prediction value, The power generation BG planning step adjusts an amount of power sold to the power trading market and an amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price forecast value; The demand BG planning step is a program that adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with an adjustment to the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan.

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