PLANT STATE PREDICTION APPARATUS AND PLANT STATE PREDICTION METHOD
Patent Information
- Application Number
- JP2021086606
- Authority / Receiving Office
- JP · JP
- Patent Type
- Patents
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2021-05-24
- Publication Date
- 2025-03-03
- Estimated Expiration
- 2041-05-24
AI Technical Summary
【0009】 本開示の少なくとも一実施形態によれば、複数の状態量計測値に対して非線形的な振る舞いを有するプラントの状態を、良好な解釈性を確保しながら、精度よく予測可能なプラント状態予測装置、及び、プラント状態予測方法を提供できる。
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Abstract
Description
[Technical field]
[0001] The present disclosure relates to a plant state prediction device and a plant state prediction method. [Background technology]
[0002] In various fields, future events are predicted using a prediction model that represents the relationship between explanatory variables and objective variables that are causally related to each other. For example, in the field of plant control, a prediction model is constructed in which the measurement results of sensors or the like installed in the plant (hereinafter, appropriately referred to as "state quantity measurement values") are used as explanatory variables and parameters related to the operating state of the plant are used as objective variables, and the future behavior of the plant can be verified by calculating predicted values of the parameters using the prediction model.
[0003] Such a prediction model can be constructed by a linear regression method such as Lasso regression or multiple regression as in Patent Document 1. However, the linear regression method is suitable for prediction targets whose behavior is relatively simple, and may be difficult to apply to phenomena whose occurrence mechanism is unclear and exhibit nonlinear behavior, such as asynchronous vibration in a steam turbine. For such targets, a prediction model is constructed using a fully connected layer type neural network as in Patent Document 2. When a neural network is used, the prediction model is constructed by learning parameters such as the weights and biases of the neural network so that the output value of the prediction model when training data is input approaches the value of the teacher data. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]
[0004] [Patent Document 1] JP 2007-2673 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2013-40565 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]
[0005] The method using a neural network as disclosed in Patent Document 2 can handle objects that cannot be handled by linear regression methods, but the network structure is complex and difficult to interpret.
[0006] At least one embodiment of the present disclosure has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned circumstances, and has an object to provide a plant state prediction device and a plant state prediction method that are capable of accurately predicting the state of a plant having nonlinear behavior with respect to a plurality of state quantity measurement values while ensuring good interpretability. [Means for solving the problem]
[0007] In order to solve the above problems, a plant state prediction device according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure includes: A plant state prediction device for predicting a state of a plant by inputting a plurality of state quantity measurement values related to the plant into a neural network, comprising: The neural network comprises: An input layer; a linear combination layer capable of calculating an intermediate output value by linearly combining the plurality of state quantity measurement values input to each node constituting the input layer; a fully connected layer in which nodes between layers are connected to each other and a network including a nonlinear function is input with the intermediate output value, thereby enabling calculation of a predicted value regarding the state of the plant; Equipped with.
[0008] In order to solve the above problem, a plant state prediction method according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure includes: A plant state prediction method for predicting a state of a plant by inputting a plurality of state quantity measurement values related to the plant into a neural network, comprising: a step of inputting the plurality of state quantity measurement values input to each node into a linear combination layer of the neural network and linearly combining the input state quantity measurement values to calculate an intermediate output value; Calculating a predicted value regarding the state of the plant by inputting the intermediate output value into a fully connected layer of the neural network in which nodes between layers are connected to each other and include a nonlinear function; Equipped with. Effect of the Invention
[0009] According to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure, it is possible to provide a plant state prediction device and a plant state prediction method that can accurately predict the state of a plant having nonlinear behavior with respect to a plurality of state quantity measurement values while ensuring good interpretability. [Brief description of the drawings]
[0010] [Figure 1] 1 is a configuration diagram illustrating a plant state prediction device according to an embodiment. [Diagram 2] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating the configuration of a conventional fully connected neural network. [Diagram 3] FIG. 2 is a configuration diagram of the neural network in FIG. [Figure 4] 1. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a comparison of prediction results obtained in a reference example in which linear regression is used instead of a neural network in the plant state prediction device of FIG. 1 with actual measurement results. [Diagram 5] 2 is a diagram showing a comparison of prediction results obtained by the plant state prediction device of FIG. 1 with actual measurement results. FIG. [Figure 6] This is a verification result in which the correlation coefficient between the predicted values and the actual measured values obtained by the plant state prediction device in FIG. 1 is compared with a reference example. [Figure 7] 2 is a diagram showing a change over time in a predicted value when the number of node layers in a fully connected layer is changed in the plant state prediction device of FIG. 1. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS
[0011] Hereinafter, some embodiments of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the dimensions, materials, shapes, relative arrangements, etc. of components described as the embodiments or shown in the drawings are merely illustrative examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the present disclosure.
[0012] FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a plant state prediction device 1 according to an embodiment. The plant state prediction device 1 is a device for predicting the state of a plant, and is composed of, for example, a central processing unit (CPU), a random access memory (RAM), a read only memory (ROM), and a computer-readable storage medium. A series of processes for realizing various functions is stored in a storage medium or the like in the form of a program, for example, and the CPU reads the program into the RAM or the like and executes information processing and arithmetic processing to realize various functions. The program may be installed in a ROM or other storage medium in advance, may be provided in a state stored in a computer-readable storage medium, or may be distributed via a wired or wireless communication means. The computer-readable storage medium may be a magnetic disk, a magneto-optical disk, a CD-ROM, a DVD-ROM, a semiconductor memory, or the like.
[0013] A plurality of state quantities (state quantity measurement values) x1, x2, ... related to the plant, which is the prediction target, measured by measuring means (not shown) such as sensors installed in the plant, are input to such a plant state prediction device 1. These plurality of state quantity measurement values x1, x2, ... are input to a neural network NN included in the plant state prediction device 1, which outputs a predicted value Vp of a parameter related to the plant state.
[0014] In the following embodiment, a case will be described in which a predicted value Vp is obtained for the blade vibration value of a turbine provided in a plant as an example of a parameter related to the plant state, and the occurrence of asynchronous vibration of the turbine is predicted based on the predicted value Vp. The mechanism by which asynchronous vibration of a turbine occurs is unclear and the vibration exhibits nonlinear behavior, but the vibration can be suitably predicted by the plant state prediction device 1 and the plant state prediction method implemented by the device. Note that such a prediction target is merely an example, and can broadly include parameters related to the plant state, such as the temperature and pressure inside the plant.
[0015] Here, a conventional fully-connected neural network NN' will be explained as the underlying technology of the neural network NN in Fig. 1. Fig. 2 is a configuration diagram of a conventional fully-connected neural network NN'.
[0016] The fully connected neural network NN' includes an input layer 2, a hidden layer 4', and an output layer 6. The above-mentioned multiple state quantity measurement values x1, x2, ... are input to the input layer 2. The multiple state quantity measurement values x1, x2, ... input to the input layer 2 are configured to start from each node N (neuron) of the input layer 2, pass through the nodes N of each layer constituting the hidden layer 4', and the result is output from the output layer 6 as a predicted value Vp.
[0017] The hidden layer 4' has at least one node layer. In a fully connected neural network NN', the hidden layer 4' has multiple node layers, and the nodes N in each node layer are fully connected to each other. The connection strength between each node N is set by weights. The weights between each node N are set by tuning through learning so that the error between the network output value (output value from the output layer) and the correct answer is small.
[0018] Fig. 3 is a configuration diagram of the neural network NN in Fig. 1. The neural network NN has an input layer 2 and an output layer 6, similar to the fully connected neural network NN' described above, but is different in the configuration of the hidden layer 4. Specifically, the hidden layer 4 of the neural network NN is configured to include a linear connection layer 8 and a fully connected layer 10.
[0019] The linear combination layer 8 is configured to be able to calculate an intermediate output value z by linearly combining a plurality of state quantity measurement values x1, x2, ... input to each node N of the neural network NN. Specifically, the intermediate output value z is calculated by linearly combining a plurality of state quantity measurement values x1, x2, ... xn input to each node N of the input layer 2 using weights w1, w2, ... according to the following equation. z=w1·x1+w2·x2+···wn·xn+w0 (1)
[0020] The fully connected layer 10 is configured such that each node N between adjacent node layers is connected to each other, and an intermediate output value z is input to a network including a nonlinear function nf, so that a predicted value regarding the state of the plant can be calculated. The nonlinear function nf included in the fully connected layer 10 can be any nonlinear function nf, such as a ReLU function, a sigmoid function, or a tanh function. The selection of these nonlinear functions nf may be based on a method of pre-processing performed on the data (normalization processing (processing of converting data so that the maximum value is 1 and the minimum value is 0), standardization processing (processing of converting data so that the average value is 0 and the variance is 1)). In this embodiment, the ReLU function is used as an example of a nonlinear function. The ReLU function has a simple form compared to other nonlinear functions, so that the computation load in the fully connected layer 10 can be effectively reduced. Another advantage is that there is no possibility of gradient disappearance (a state in which the learning of the network does not progress).
[0021] In addition, in the above-mentioned fully connected neural network NN', learning is unstable and the expected prediction accuracy may not be obtained. In contrast, in the neural network NN of the present embodiment, a part of the fully connected neural network NN' is substantially configured as the linear connection layer 8, which is advantageous in that learning becomes more stable.
[0022] In the neural network NN having such a configuration, the weights w1, w2, ..., wn of the linear combination layer 8 are set by learning the neural network NN and tuning it so that the error of the output predicted value Vp is small. In the linear combination layer 8, the intermediate output value z is calculated by linear combination using the weights w1, w2, ..., wn tuned in this way, and therefore has good interpretability. Specifically, by comparing the weights w1, w2, ..., wn obtained by tuning, the contribution (or importance) of each state quantity measurement value x1, x2, ..., xn to the plant state to be evaluated can be evaluated. For example, when the weights corresponding to the state quantity measurements x1, x2, x3, ...xn are tuned to w1=3.5, w2=0.05, w3=10, ..., wn=-1, it can be seen that the state quantity measurement w3 with a relatively large weight is a factor that contributes greatly to the predicted value Vp, while the state quantity measurement w2 with the smallest weight is a factor that contributes little to the predicted value Vp. It can also be seen that the state quantity measurement wn with a negative weight is a factor that contributes to the predicted value Vp in the opposite direction to the other state quantity measurements with positive weights.
[0023] For example, when the vibration amplitude of the turbine blade is the predicted value Vp, various parameters such as the degree of vacuum, output, rotor thermal expansion difference, turbine valve opening, and inlet steam temperature of the turbine equipped in the plant are set as a plurality of state quantity measurement values x1, x2, x3, ... xn, and the weights w1, w2, ..., wn corresponding to each state quantity measurement value x1, x2, x3, ... xn are compared to evaluate the contribution of each state quantity measurement value x1, x2, ..., xn to the asynchronous vibration, which is the phenomenon to be evaluated. For example, the plant may be evaluated by comparing each weight w1, w2, ..., wn with a preset threshold value to classify the weights into a group with a large contribution degree having a weight greater than the threshold value and a group with a small contribution degree having a weight equal to or less than the threshold value. In this case, the state quantity measurement value with the largest weight may be identified as the main factor of the asynchronous vibration.
[0024] Here, prediction results obtained by the plant state prediction device 1 having the above configuration will be explained in comparison with a reference example using linear regression. In the following explanation, asynchronous vibration, which is a nonlinear phenomenon that can occur in a turbine equipped in a plant, is the prediction target, and the vibration amplitude of the turbine blades is treated as the predicted value Vp, but the prediction target is not limited to this.
[0025] Fig. 4 is a diagram showing a comparison of prediction results obtained in a reference example in which linear regression (Lasso regression) is adopted instead of the neural network NN in the plant state prediction device 1 of Fig. 1 with actual measurement results. Fig. 4 shows the temporal changes in the predicted value Vp and the actual measurement value for the vibration amplitude of the turbine blade, and shows that the predicted value Vp is underestimated compared to the actual measurement value in the area surrounded by the circle C1. This shows that it is difficult for linear regression to accurately predict a nonlinear phenomenon such as asynchronous turbine blade vibration.
[0026] On the other hand, Fig. 5 is a diagram comparing the prediction results obtained by the plant state prediction device 1 in Fig. 1 with the actual measurement results. As shown by the circle C2 in Fig. 5, in the region where the vibration amplitude increases in the actual measurement values, indicating the occurrence of asynchronous vibration, the predicted value Vp also has an equivalent value. This shows that a phenomenon with nonlinear behavior, such as asynchronous vibration of turbine blades, can be predicted with high accuracy.
[0027] Next, Fig. 6 shows the verification results in which the correlation coefficient between the predicted value and the actual measurement value obtained by the plant state prediction device 1 in Fig. 1 is compared with a reference example. Fig. 6 also shows the verification results using the fully connected neural network NN' shown in Fig. 2 as a reference example, with asynchronous vibration, which is a nonlinear phenomenon that can occur in a turbine equipped in a plant, as the prediction target. Fig. 6 also shows the results of performing a similar verification multiple times. This correlation coefficient is an index that approaches "1" as the error between the predicted value and the actual measurement value becomes smaller, and the correlation coefficients are shown for the learning interval in which learning is performed for the neural network NN (or the fully connected neural network NN' in the reference example) and the verification interval in which prediction is actually performed using the trained neural network NN (or the fully connected neural network NN' in the reference example).
[0028] 6, in all the verification results, regardless of the learning interval and the verification interval, the prediction results by the plant state prediction device 1 according to this embodiment have correlation coefficients equivalent to those of the reference example using the fully connected neural network NN'. This shows that the plant state prediction device 1 can obtain sufficient prediction accuracy even if a part of the neural network NN is replaced by a linear combination section.
[0029] Next, a verification result regarding the number of node layers of the neural network NN of the plant state prediction device 1 will be described. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a time change of the predicted value Vp when the number of node layers m of the fully connected layer is changed in the plant state prediction device of FIG. 1. FIG. 7 shows the case where the number of node layers of the fully connected layer is m=5 and the case where m=50. Good reproducibility is obtained for both of the cases with respect to the actual measured value, but in the case of m=5, the mean squared error (MSE) is 0.0046 and the R value is 0.83, whereas in the case of m=50, the mean squared error is 0.0040 and the R value is 0.85. This shows that in the neural network NN, the more the number of node layers m of the fully connected layer is, the more the expressive power of the neural network NN increases, and thus the prediction accuracy is improved.
[0030] As described above, according to the above embodiment, the state of the plant can be predicted from a plurality of state quantity measurements using a neural network NN including a linear coupling layer 8 and a fully coupled layer 10. In such a neural network NN, the intermediate output value z calculated in the linear coupling layer 8 is input to a network including a nonlinear function nf in the fully coupled layer 10 to calculate a predicted value Vp, so that a state prediction can be performed with high accuracy, taking into account a nonlinear phenomenon that cannot be expressed by conventional linear regression. In addition, when calculating the predicted value Vp, the structure is simplified compared to a conventional neural network NN' that is entirely fully coupled, by compressing the plurality of state quantity measurements x1, x2, . . . , xn into the intermediate output value z, and the stability of learning is improved. On the other hand, since the intermediate output value z calculated in the linear coupling layer 8 is obtained as a linear combination of a plurality of state quantity measurements x1, x2, . . . , xn, good interpretability can be obtained by checking the weights w1, w2, . . . , wn of each state quantity measurement value x1, x2, . . . , xn with respect to the intermediate output value z. Thereby, for example, by comparing the weights w1, w2, . . . , wn of the state quantity measurements x1, x2, . . . , xn, it is possible to evaluate the contribution to the predicted value Vp, the sensitivity direction, and the like.
[0031] In addition, within the scope of the present disclosure, the components in the above-described embodiments may be replaced with well-known components as appropriate, and the above-described embodiments may be combined as appropriate.
[0032] The contents described in each of the above embodiments can be understood, for example, as follows.
[0033] (1) A plant state prediction device according to one aspect includes: A plant state prediction device (e.g., the plant state prediction device 1 of the above embodiment) for predicting a state of a plant by inputting a plurality of state quantity measurement values related to a plant (e.g., state quantity measurement values x1, x2, . . . , xn in the above embodiment) to a neural network (e.g., the neural network NN in the above embodiment), The neural network comprises: An input layer; a linear combination layer (e.g., the linear combination layer 8 in the above embodiment) capable of calculating an intermediate output value (e.g., the intermediate output value z in the above embodiment) by linearly combining the plurality of state quantity measurement values input to each node constituting the input layer; a fully connected layer (e.g., the fully connected layer 10 in the above embodiment) capable of calculating a predicted value (e.g., the predicted value Vp in the above embodiment) regarding the state of the plant by inputting the intermediate output value into a network in which nodes between layers are connected to each other and which includes a nonlinear function (e.g., the nonlinear function nf in the above embodiment); Equipped with.
[0034] According to the above aspect (1), the state of the plant can be predicted from a plurality of state quantity measurements using a neural network having a linear combination layer and a fully connected layer. In such a neural network, the intermediate output value calculated in the linear combination layer is input to a network including a nonlinear function in the fully connected layer to calculate a predicted value, so that a state prediction can be performed with high accuracy, taking into account a nonlinear phenomenon that cannot be expressed by conventional linear regression. In addition, when calculating a predicted value, the plurality of state quantity measurements are compressed into an intermediate output value, so that the structure is simplified compared to a conventional neural network that is entirely fully connected, and the stability of learning is improved. On the other hand, since the intermediate output value calculated in the linear combination layer is obtained as a linear combination of a plurality of state quantity measurements, good interpretability can be obtained by checking the weight of each state quantity measurement value with respect to the intermediate output value. As a result, for example, by comparing the weight of each state quantity measurement value, it is possible to evaluate the contribution degree to the predicted value, the sensitivity direction, and the like.
[0035] (2) In another embodiment, in the above embodiment (1), The importance of each of the multiple state quantity measurement values is evaluated by calculating a weight (for example, weights w1, w2, ..., wn in the above embodiment) in the intermediate output value for each of the multiple state quantity measurement values.
[0036] According to the above aspect (2), good interpretability can be obtained by evaluating the importance based on the weight of each state quantity measurement value with respect to the intermediate output value calculated by the linear combination unit through the linear combination of a plurality of state quantity measurement values.
[0037] (3) In another embodiment, in the above embodiment (2), The system is configured to identify a major factor in the state of the plant based on whether the weight is greater than a preset threshold.
[0038] According to the above aspect (3), by comparing the weight of each state quantity measurement value obtained from an intermediate output value calculated by a linear combination of a plurality of state quantity measurement values with a threshold value, it is possible to identify the main factors that bring about the state of the plant to be predicted from the plurality of state quantity measurement values.
[0039] (4) In another embodiment, in any one of the above (1) to (3), The linear combination layer is provided immediately after the input layer.
[0040] According to the above aspect (4), by providing a linear combination layer immediately after the input layer, the linear combination layer linearly combines and outputs state quantity measurements input to each node constituting the input layer, thereby obtaining good interpretability.
[0041] (5) In another embodiment, in any one of the above (1) to (4), The fully connected layer has more neurons per layer than the linearly connected layer.
[0042] According to the above aspect (5), by making the number of neurons per layer of the fully connected layer sufficiently greater than that of the linearly connected layer, the expressive power of the network is increased, and prediction accuracy can be improved.
[0043] (6) In another embodiment, in any one of the above (1) to (5), The linearly connected layer has one neuron per layer.
[0044] According to the above aspect (6), by configuring the linear combination layer with one neuron per layer, better interpretability can be obtained.
[0045] (7) In another embodiment, in any one of the above (1) to (6), The nonlinear function is a ReLU function.
[0046] According to the above aspect (7), since the ReLU function has a simpler form than other nonlinear functions, it is possible to reduce the computation load. Another advantage is that there is no possibility of gradient vanishing.
[0047] (8) In another embodiment, in any one of the above (1) to (7), The predicted value is a parameter related to asynchronous vibration of a turbine included in the plant.
[0048] According to the above aspect (8), it is possible to suitably predict parameters related to asynchronous vibrations occurring in a turbine installed in a plant as a prediction target. Since such asynchronous vibrations have nonlinear behavior with respect to measurable state quantity values, they may not be explained by state quantity values (e.g., output, vacuum degree, etc.) that are said to have empirical correlations, but it is possible to predict them with high accuracy by using a neural network having the above-mentioned configuration.
[0049] (9) A plant state prediction method according to one aspect includes the steps of: A plant state prediction method for predicting a state of a plant by inputting a plurality of state quantity measurement values (e.g., state quantity measurement values x1, x2, . . . , xn) related to a plant to a neural network (e.g., the neural network NN in the above embodiment), a step of inputting the plurality of state quantity measurement values input to each node into a linear combination layer (e.g., the linear combination layer 8 in the above embodiment) of the neural network and linearly combining the input state quantity measurement values to calculate an intermediate output value (e.g., the intermediate output value z in the above embodiment); A step of inputting the intermediate output value into a fully connected layer (e.g., the fully connected layer 10 in the above embodiment) of the neural network in which nodes between layers are connected to each other and which includes a nonlinear function (e.g., the nonlinear function nf in the above embodiment), thereby calculating a predicted value (e.g., the predicted value Vp in the above embodiment) regarding the state of the plant; Equipped with.
[0050] According to the above aspect (9), the state of the plant can be predicted from a plurality of state quantity measurements using a neural network having a linear combination layer and a fully connected layer. In such a neural network, the intermediate output value calculated in the linear combination layer is input to a network including a nonlinear function in the fully connected layer to calculate a predicted value, so that a state prediction can be performed with high accuracy, taking into account a nonlinear phenomenon that cannot be expressed by conventional linear regression. In addition, when calculating a predicted value, the plurality of state quantity measurements are compressed into an intermediate output value, so that the structure is simplified compared to a conventional neural network that is entirely fully connected, and the stability of learning is improved. On the other hand, since the intermediate output value calculated in the linear combination layer is obtained as a linear combination of a plurality of state quantity measurements, good interpretability can be obtained by checking the weight of each state quantity measurement value with respect to the intermediate output value. As a result, for example, by comparing the weight of each state quantity measurement value, it is possible to evaluate the contribution degree to the predicted value, the sensitivity direction, and the like. [Explanation of symbols]
[0051] 1 Plant state prediction device 2. Input Layer 4 Hidden Layer 6 Output layer 8 Linearly Combined Layer 10 fully connected layer NN Neural Network NN´ Fully connected neural network N-node z intermediate output value x1, x2,..., xn State quantity measurement value w1, w2, . . . , wn weights
Claims
1. A plant state prediction device for predicting a state of a plant by inputting a plurality of state quantity measurement values related to the plant into a neural network, comprising: The neural network comprises: An input layer; a linear combination layer provided immediately after the input layer, the linear combination layer having one neuron per layer, and capable of calculating an intermediate output value by linearly combining the plurality of state quantity measurement values input to each node constituting the input layer; a fully connected layer in which nodes between layers are connected to each other and a network including a nonlinear function is input with the intermediate output value, thereby enabling calculation of a predicted value regarding the state of the plant; Equipped with a weight in the intermediate output value for each of the plurality of state quantity measurement values, thereby evaluating the importance of each of the plurality of state quantity measurement values.
2. 2. The plant state prediction device according to claim 1, configured to identify a main factor in the state of the plant based on whether or not the weight is greater than a preset threshold value.
3. 3. The plant state prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the fully connected layer has a greater number of neurons per layer than the linearly connected layer.
4. The plant state prediction device according to claim 1 , wherein the nonlinear function is a ReLU function.
5. The plant state prediction device according to claim 1 , wherein the predicted value is a parameter related to asynchronous vibration of a turbine included in the plant.
6. A plant state prediction method for predicting a state of a plant by inputting a plurality of state quantity measurement values related to the plant into a neural network, comprising: a step of inputting the plurality of state quantity measurement values input to each node of an input layer into a linear combination layer, which is provided immediately after the input layer of the neural network and has one neuron per layer, and linearly combining the input values to calculate an intermediate output value; Calculating a predicted value regarding the state of the plant by inputting the intermediate output value into a fully connected layer of the neural network in which nodes between layers are connected to each other and include a nonlinear function; Equipped with a weight in the intermediate output value is calculated for each of the plurality of state quantity measurement values, thereby evaluating the importance of each of the plurality of state quantity measurement values.
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