Machine maintenance support system

Abstract

To promote purchasing in advance of components required for repair to suppress extension of machine utilization stop time due to shortage of stock of the components.SOLUTION: A calculation processing device 100a of a machine maintenance support system 1 comprises: a failure prediction part 101 for estimating a failure probability of a machine 10 to predict a failure; a countermeasure component identifying part 102 for identifying countermeasure components required for repair; an order acceptance probability calculating part 103 for calculating an order acceptance probability of countermeasure components on the basis of the failure probability; a stock management part 104 for calculating an expected income summary of previous purchasing of countermeasure components for which stock shortage occurs in a component warehouse, on the basis of the order acceptance probability, and then performing previous purchasing; an affection calculation part 105 for calculating an economical affection of a customer, on the basis of a period required for purchasing of the countermeasure components; a sales-promoting plan generation part 106 for generating a sales-promoting plan, on the basis of the economical affection; and an output part 107 for outputting the sales-promoting plan to the communication unit 100b. The communication unit 100b transmits the sales-promoting plan to a terminal unit 50.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] This invention relates to a machine maintenance support system. [Background technology]

[0002] For construction machinery or wind turbines and other machines that operate for extended periods, improving the operating rate is crucial to maximizing customer (machine owner or user, hereinafter also referred to as "customer") profits. To improve machine operating rates, it is desirable that even if a machine malfunctions, it can be repaired appropriately and quickly (including parts replacement) and restarted. To perform repairs appropriately and quickly, it is desirable that there is a sufficient stock of parts necessary for machine maintenance and that these parts are deployed as quickly as possible near the machine. For example, Patent Document 1 proposes a technology for semiconductor manufacturing equipment that calculates the failure probability of parts and manages the amount of maintenance parts stockpiled according to the failure probability.

[0003] On the other hand, construction machinery or wind turbines often operate simultaneously in multiple similar machines in remote locations, and parts warehouses are frequently set up in each region. Because these machines have a large number of parts, it is difficult to store all parts in each regional parts warehouse. When parts are procured from suppliers after an order is placed, the time spent transporting the parts during procurement can negatively impact the machine's operating rate. Therefore, it is desirable to procure the parts necessary for repairs in advance and place them near the machine. For example, Patent Document 2 proposes a technology that determines whether or not to pre-order maintenance parts by calculating the probability that the equipment will be restored by replacing maintenance parts based on the equipment's fault diagnosis information, and the expected value of the return cost if the parts are not used. [Prior art documents] [Patent Documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2003-257808 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2013-105221 [Overview of the project] [Problems that the invention aims to solve]

[0005] The technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 does not take into account the time required to procure parts that are out of stock from suppliers. Therefore, with the technology disclosed in Patent Document 1, there is a concern that the downtime of the machine will be prolonged if it takes a long time to procure the parts.

[0006] On the other hand, even if the machine maintenance company procures the necessary parts in advance, customers may postpone repairs due to a lack of understanding of the benefits of the repair or due to their financial circumstances. In this case, the machine may malfunction, potentially causing significant losses for the customer. For the machine maintenance company, the uncertainty of the customer's decision regarding repairs increases the risk of not being able to secure parts inventory, making it difficult to procure necessary parts in advance.

[0007] The technology disclosed in Patent Document 2 only considers the probability that the device will be restored by replacing the maintenance parts and the expected cost of returning the parts if they are not used, in order to determine whether advance procurement of maintenance parts is necessary. Therefore, there is a concern that the technology disclosed in Patent Document 2 will not encourage advance procurement of necessary parts, as customers will not understand the benefits of doing so. As a result, there is a concern that the technology disclosed in Patent Document 2 will lead to situations where repairs are carried out after a malfunction occurs, resulting in prolonged downtime of the machine.

[0008] This invention has been made in view of the above, and aims to promote the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs, thereby suppressing the prolonged downtime of machinery due to shortages of such parts. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] To solve the above problems, the present invention provides a machine maintenance support system comprising a server device for supporting machine maintenance, wherein the server device includes a communication device for communicating with a terminal device used by the machine's customer, and a processing unit, the processing unit comprising: a failure prediction unit for predicting machine failure by estimating the probability of machine failure before a machine failure occurs; a countermeasure parts identification unit for identifying countermeasure parts necessary to repair the failure; an order probability calculation unit for calculating an order probability based on the failure probability, indicating the probability of receiving an order for the countermeasure parts from the machine's customer; and a unit for determining when the countermeasure parts are out of stock in a parts warehouse. The system includes: an inventory management unit that calculates the expected profit or loss expected from pre-procurement before the failure occurs, based on the probability of receiving the order, and transmits information regarding the pre-procurement to the parts warehouse based on the calculated expected profit or loss; an impact calculation unit that calculates the economic impact of the failure on the customer based on the time required to procure the countermeasure parts; a sales promotion plan creation unit that creates a sales promotion plan for the countermeasure parts based on the failure prediction, the list of countermeasure parts, and the economic impact; and an output unit that outputs the sales promotion plan to the communication device, wherein the communication device transmits the sales promotion plan to the terminal device. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to the present invention, it is possible to promote the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs and suppress the prolonged downtime of machinery due to a shortage of such parts. Other issues, configurations, and effects will be clarified by the following description of the embodiments. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0011] [Figure 1] A diagram showing the configuration of the machine maintenance support system of Embodiment 1. [Figure 2] Figure 1 shows the functional configuration of the processing unit. [Figure 3] Figure 1 shows the configuration of the database stored in the database device. [Figure 4]Figure 3 shows an example of a machine information database. [Figure 5] Figure 3 shows an example of a fault and repair history database. [Figure 6] Figure 3 shows an example of a database of countermeasure parts. [Figure 7] Figure 3 shows an example of a sales history database. [Figure 8] Figure 3 shows an example of a warehouse database. [Figure 9] Figure 3 shows an example of a field information database. [Figure 10] Figure 2 shows a flowchart illustrating the process for the advance procurement of the arithmetic processing unit. [Figure 11] Figure 2 shows an example of the information output from the order probability calculation unit. [Figure 12] Figure 2 shows an example of an algorithm used by the inventory management department to calculate expected profit and loss. [Figure 13] Figure 2 shows an example of the expected profit and loss calculation results by the inventory management department. [Figure 14] Figure 2 shows an example of an algorithm used by the impact calculation unit to calculate the impact of a failure. [Figure 15] A diagram illustrating the downtime of a machine. [Figure 16] Figure 2 shows an example of the information output from the impact calculation unit. [Figure 17] Figure 2 shows an example of a promotional period and promotional price set by the promotional plan creation department. [Figure 18] Figure 2 shows an example of the information output by the output unit shown in Figure 2. [Figure 19] A flowchart illustrating the process for the pre-procurement of the arithmetic processing unit of Embodiment 2. [Figure 20] A diagram showing an example of a promotional period and promotional price set by the promotional plan creation unit of Embodiment 2. [Figure 21] This figure shows an example of the relationship between the price of a countermeasure component and the probability of purchasing that component, as used by the order probability calculation unit of Embodiment 3. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0012] Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. In each embodiment, components denoted by the same reference numerals have the same function in each embodiment unless otherwise specified, and their descriptions will be omitted.

[0013] [Embodiment 1] The machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 will be described using Figures 1 to 18.

[0014] Figure 1 shows the configuration of the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1.

[0015] The Machine Maintenance Support System 1 is a system that supports maintenance work on a group of machines 10a to 10x, such as hydraulic excavators, which are construction machines. The Machine Maintenance Support System 1 comprises a server device 30 connected to the group of machines 10a to 10x via a network 20, a parts warehouse 40 connected to the server device 30 via the network 20, and a terminal device 50 connected to the server device 30 via the network 20. Hereinafter, the individual machines 10a, 10b, ..., 10x included in the group of machines 10a to 10x will be collectively referred to as "machine 10". The Machine Maintenance Support System 1 is installed in the management office of the machine 10 manufacturer or in the service office of machine 10.

[0016] The server device 30 monitors the status of the machine 10 and assists with maintenance work on the machine 10. The server device 30 comprises a server body 100 and a database device 200. The server body 100 includes an arithmetic processing unit 100a that performs calculations and a communication device 100b that communicates with the outside of the server device 30 via the network 20. The database device 200 stores data necessary for the calculations performed by the arithmetic processing unit 100a.

[0017] The arithmetic processing unit 100a is composed of one or more computers, each equipped with a power supply, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), memory, and input / output devices. The arithmetic processing unit 100a is connected to a network 20, which is composed of a LAN (Local Area Network) or the Internet, via a communication device 100b.

[0018] The database device 200 is composed of, for example, one or more hard disks. The database device 200 may be installed inside the server body 100, or it may be connected to the server body 100 via the network 20. The database device 200 stores data related to the processing of the arithmetic processing unit 100a in an electronic file format or a database format such as a relational database.

[0019] Machine groups 10a to 10x are multiple machines 10 located at the same work site. Each machine 10 is composed of multiple subunits or parts. Each machine 10 includes various sensors 11 for measuring pressure or temperature, a control device 12 for controlling the operation of the machine 10, and a communication device 13 for communicating with the outside world via a network 20. The control device 12 can transmit information such as pressure or temperature measured by the sensors 11 (hereinafter also referred to as "operation information") to a server device 30 via the communication device 13. Each machine 10 has an operation plan and a maintenance plan, and is operated, stopped, or maintained based on these plans.

[0020] In Figure 1, machine 10 is shown as a hydraulic excavator, a typical example of construction machinery. However, machine 10 is not limited to construction machinery and may be other machines such as a wind turbine.

[0021] The parts warehouse 40 stores parts used in the machine 10, manages the inventory of the stored parts, and manages the receiving and shipping of parts. The parts warehouse 40 includes control devices and communication devices (not shown). The parts warehouse 40 is connected to the network 20 via the communication devices, and further connected to the server device 30.

[0022] The terminal device 50 consists of a personal computer or smartphone, and has the functions of inputting and outputting electronic files and displaying them on a screen. Furthermore, the terminal device 50 has the function of outputting to paper media using a printer or fax machine. The terminal device 50 is connected to the server device 30 via the network 20 and displays various information, including information on parts procurement transmitted from the server device 30, and presents it to the customer.

[0023] Figure 2 shows the functional configuration of the arithmetic processing unit 100a shown in Figure 1. The arrows in Figure 2 indicate the processing steps of the arithmetic processing unit 100a.

[0024] The arithmetic processing unit 100a includes a failure prediction unit 101, a countermeasure part identification unit 102, an order probability calculation unit 103, an inventory management unit 104, an impact calculation unit 105, a sales promotion plan creation unit 106, and an output unit 107.

[0025] The failure prediction unit 101 estimates the probability of machine 10 failure before a failure occurs and makes a failure prediction for machine 10. The countermeasure parts identification unit 102 identifies the parts necessary to repair the failure of machine 10 (hereinafter also referred to as "countermeasure parts"). The order probability calculation unit 103 calculates the order probability, which indicates the probability of receiving an order for countermeasure parts from a customer of machine 10, based on the failure probability estimated by the failure prediction unit 101.

[0026] The inventory management unit 104 calculates the expected profit or loss that can be expected from pre-procuring replacement parts that are in short supply in the parts warehouse 40 before a failure occurs, based on the order probability calculation unit 103. Then, the inventory management unit 104 pre-procures replacement parts based on the calculated expected profit or loss. Specifically, the inventory management unit 104 transmits information regarding the pre-procurement of replacement parts to the parts warehouse 40 based on the calculated expected profit or loss.

[0027] The Impact Calculation Unit 105 calculates the economic impact of the machine 10 failure on the customer (hereinafter also referred to as "failure impact") based on the time required to procure the countermeasure parts. The Sales Promotion Plan Creation Unit 106 creates a sales promotion plan for the countermeasure parts based on the failure prediction performed by the failure prediction unit 101, the parts list including the countermeasure parts identified by the countermeasure part identification unit 102, and the failure impact calculated by the Impact Calculation Unit 105. The Output Unit 107 outputs the sales promotion plan created by the Sales Promotion Plan Creation Unit 106 to the communication device 100b, causing the sales promotion plan to be transmitted to the terminal device 50. Details of the arithmetic processing unit 100a will be described later with reference to Figures 10 to 18.

[0028] Figure 3 shows the configuration of the database (hereinafter also referred to as "DB") stored in the database device 200 shown in Figure 1.

[0029] The database device 200 includes an operation information DB 201 that stores operation information transmitted from the machine 10, and a machine information DB 202 that stores machine information of the machine 10. Furthermore, the database device 200 includes a failure / repair history DB 203 that stores the failure history and repair history of the machine 10, a countermeasure parts DB 204 that stores a list of countermeasure parts, and a sales history DB 205 that stores the sales history of parts. Furthermore, the database device 200 includes a warehouse DB 206 that stores information related to the parts warehouse 40, and a site information DB 207 that stores information related to the operating site of the machine 10.

[0030] Figure 4 shows an example of the machine information DB202 shown in Figure 3.

[0031] The machine information DB202 stores at least the model information, operation plan, repair history, parts list, and average excavation volume per unit time for all machines 10 in machine groups 10a to 10x. The model information includes basic information such as the machine model, model name, type, serial number, and date of manufacture of machine 10. The operation plan includes information about the planned operation of machine 10 at the target work site, such as the planned operating time and operating mode. The repair history includes information about repairs (including parts replacement) that have been performed on machine 10 in the past. The repair history may also be information obtained from the failure / repair history DB203. The parts list includes information on all parts used in machine 10. The average excavation volume per unit time is the average value per unit time of the weight of soil excavated in the past by machine 10, which is a hydraulic excavator.

[0032] Figure 5 shows an example of the failure / repair history DB203 shown in Figure 3.

[0033] The failure / repair history DB203 stores, for each case in which a failure or repair of machine 10 occurs, the values ​​of the health indicators used during failure prediction, the number of days until failure, the type of failure mode, a list of parts replaced during repair, the repair time, and the repair cost.

[0034] A failure mode is a classification of failure determined by the part where the failure occurs and the nature of the failure. The failure / repair history DB203 stores in advance the failure modes that may occur in machine 10, based on the failure history of machine 10 and past knowledge of machine 10. Examples of failure modes include battery degradation or bucket tooth damage. Battery degradation is a failure caused by deterioration of the battery's charge state. A health index is an index used to represent the health of a part or component of machine 10, and it differs depending on the failure mode. A health index corresponding to battery degradation may be, for example, the battery's state of charge (SOC). Bucket tooth damage is a failure caused by wear of the teeth. A health index corresponding to bucket tooth damage may be the machine 10's cumulative operating time.

[0035] Figure 6 shows an example of the countermeasure component DB204 shown in Figure 3.

[0036] The countermeasure parts DB204 stores a list of countermeasure parts necessary to repair each type of failure mode. The DB204 stores the part ID, part name, and quantity of each countermeasure part in the list. Note that while Figure 6 shows one countermeasure part for each failure mode, the number of countermeasure parts is not limited to one; there may be multiple.

[0037] Figure 7 shows an example of the sales history DB205 shown in Figure 3.

[0038] The sales history database 205 stores information on all parts sold to the target customer. The sales history database 205 stores at least the part sales date, part ID, part name, part unit price (selling price), part cost, part weight, customer ID of the customer, transportation time from parts warehouse 40 to the customer (location of machine 10), and transportation costs from parts warehouse 40 to the customer (location of machine 10).

[0039] Figure 8 shows an example of the warehouse DB206 shown in Figure 3.

[0040] Warehouse DB206 stores information about parts warehouse 40. Warehouse DB206 stores basic warehouse information such as warehouse ID, name of parts warehouse 40, address of parts warehouse 40, contact information for parts warehouse 40, unit price of parts storage costs, and an inventory table of all parts stored in parts warehouse 40. This inventory table stores part ID, part name, part weight, part dimensions, part unit price, quantity of parts in stock, supplier of parts, and means of transporting parts. The unit price of parts storage costs refers to the cost of storing parts per unit volume and per unit time in parts warehouse 40.

[0041] Figure 9 shows an example of the field information DB207 shown in Figure 3.

[0042] Site information DB207 stores information about the operating site of machine 10. Site information DB207 stores the name of the operating site, the address of the operating site, the overall duration of the construction project at the operating site, the expected revenue expected from the overall construction project, the excavation plan for the overall construction project, the total excavation volume for the overall construction project, and a list of machines 10 to be used in the overall construction project.

[0043] Figures 10 to 18 will be used to explain the details of the arithmetic processing unit 100a.

[0044] Figure 10 is a flowchart showing the processing related to the pre-procurement of the arithmetic processing unit 100a shown in Figure 2. Figure 11 is a diagram showing an example of information output from the order probability calculation unit 103 shown in Figure 2. Figure 12 is a diagram showing an example of the algorithm used by the inventory management unit 104 shown in Figure 2 to calculate expected profit and loss. Figure 13 is a diagram showing an example of the expected profit and loss calculation result by the inventory management unit 104 shown in Figure 2. Figure 14 is a diagram showing an example of the algorithm used by the impact calculation unit 105 shown in Figure 2 to calculate the failure impact. Figure 15 is a diagram illustrating the downtime of the machine 10. Figure 16 is a diagram showing an example of information output from the impact calculation unit 105 shown in Figure 2. Figure 17 is a diagram showing an example of the sales promotion period and sales promotion price set by the sales promotion plan creation unit 106 shown in Figure 2. Figure 18 is a diagram showing an example of information output by the output unit 107 shown in Figure 2.

[0045] In step S1, the failure prediction unit 101 estimates the failure probability of machine 10 and predicts the failure of machine 10. The failure prediction unit 101 estimates the failure probability and predicts the failure before a failure of machine 10 occurs. Specifically, at regular time intervals (for example, every day), the failure prediction unit 101 uses the operation information of machine 10 stored in the operation information DB 201 and the machine information of machine 10 stored in the machine information DB 202 to calculate a value of a health index corresponding to each predetermined failure mode and estimate the failure probability.

[0046] The failure prediction unit 101 can perform failure predictions according to the probability of failure. For example, the failure prediction unit 101 can predict that a failure will occur when the probability of failure exceeds a predetermined threshold. In addition, the failure prediction unit 101 can predict that a failure will occur when the value of the health index corresponding to each failure mode exceeds a predetermined threshold.

[0047] The failure prediction unit 101 can estimate the probability of failure and predict failures using known methods such as the Weibull analysis method or the MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) method. Furthermore, the failure prediction unit 101 can estimate the probability of failure and predict failures by machine learning the operating information and failure / repair history of the machine 10. For example, operating information for the predicted failure date and the day before is labeled as abnormal data. In addition, operating information for which no failures have occurred during a certain period (for example, one month before and after the predicted failure date) is labeled as normal data. Then, a failure prediction model is constructed using a known machine learning model such as a random forest and introduced into the failure prediction unit 101. The predicted probability output from the prediction model introduced into the failure prediction unit 101 is then used as the failure probability.

[0048] In step S2, the countermeasure part identification unit 102 identifies the countermeasure parts necessary to repair the predicted failure. Specifically, the countermeasure part identification unit 102 identifies a failure mode from among several types of failure modes stored in the failure / repair history DB 203 that corresponds to the health indicator for which the failure prediction unit 101 predicted the occurrence of a failure. The countermeasure part identification unit 102 then estimates that the identified failure mode is the failure mode in the predicted failure. The countermeasure part identification unit 102 then refers to the countermeasure part DB 204 to identify a list of countermeasure parts corresponding to the estimated failure mode.

[0049] In step S3, the order probability calculation unit 103 calculates an order probability, which indicates the probability of receiving an order for the identified countermeasure part from a customer of machine 10, based on the failure probability estimated by the failure prediction unit 101.

[0050] Specifically, the order probability calculation unit 103 calculates the order probability at regular time intervals (for example, every day). The order probability p for a certain part k o This is calculated by formula 1. In formula 1, i represents the failure mode number of a failure that may occur in component k. fi This indicates the failure probability for failure mode i. bi This represents the component purchase probability, which is the probability that component k will be purchased by the customer after a failure occurs in failure mode i.

[0051]

number

[0052] The order probability calculation unit 103 calculates the part purchase probability p based on the repair history of the machine 10 using the identified countermeasure part and the sales history of the countermeasure part. bi The order probability calculation unit 103 calculates the probability of an order for a replacement part. For example, the order probability calculation unit 103 extracts all dates on which failures related to replacement parts occurred from the failure / repair history DB 203. The order probability calculation unit 103 then searches the sales history DB 205 for the sales history of replacement parts within one week of the extracted dates. The order probability calculation unit 103 can then calculate the hit rate in this search as the order probability of the replacement part.

[0053] The order probability calculation unit 103 can output not only the order probability value but also information on the countermeasure parts for which the order probability has been calculated. For example, as shown in Figure 11, the order probability calculation unit 103 can output information such as part ID, part name, required quantity, corresponding failure mode, and order probability in a matrix format, targeting parts with an order probability greater than zero.

[0054] In step S4, the inventory management unit 104 refers to the warehouse DB 206 to confirm the inventory quantity of the identified countermeasure parts in the parts warehouse 40.

[0055] In step S5, the inventory management unit 104 determines whether the inventory of the identified countermeasure parts is insufficient in the parts warehouse 40. If the inventory quantity of the countermeasure parts in the parts warehouse 40 is sufficient for the required quantity, the inventory management unit 104 determines that the inventory of the countermeasure parts is not insufficient (step S5: No). In this case, the inventory management unit 104 does not perform advance procurement of the countermeasure parts and ends the process shown in FIG. 10. On the other hand, if the inventory quantity of the countermeasure parts in the parts warehouse 40 is not sufficient for the required quantity, the inventory management unit 104 determines that the inventory of the countermeasure parts is insufficient (step S5: Yes) and proceeds to step S6.

[0056] In step S6, the inventory management unit 104 calculates the expected profit and loss expected by performing advance procurement of the countermeasure parts with insufficient inventory in the parts warehouse 40 based on the order reception probability calculated by the order reception probability calculation unit 103.

[0057] Specifically, the inventory management unit 104 calculates the total expected profit and loss S EC expected by performing advance procurement of the countermeasure parts with insufficient inventory using the algorithm as shown in FIG. 12. The expected profit and loss S EC is the expected profit and loss comprehensively calculated considering the presence or absence of advance procurement of the countermeasure parts. The expected profit and loss S EC is calculated by Equation 2. In Equation 2, S F represents the first expected profit and loss, which is the expected profit and loss when advance procurement of the countermeasure parts is performed. S NF represents the second expected profit and loss, which is the expected profit and loss when advance procurement of the countermeasure parts is not performed. The inventory management unit 104 calculates the total expected profit and loss S F from the difference between the first expected profit and loss S NF and the second expected profit and loss S EC .

[0058]

Number

[0059] The first expected profit and loss S F is calculated by Equation 3. In Equation 3, STotal_1 This shows the profit or loss when the countermeasure part is procured in advance and then purchased by the customer. Total_2 This shows the profit or loss when a countermeasure part is procured in advance but is not purchased by the customer. fp This represents the first purchase probability, which is the probability that the countermeasure part will be purchased by the customer after the countermeasure part has been procured in advance. (1-p fp ) represents the first non-purchase probability, which is the probability that the countermeasure part will not be purchased by the customer after the countermeasure part has been procured in advance. The inventory management department 104 calculates the first expected profit and loss S F The first purchase probability p fp and the first non-purchase probability (1-p fp It is calculated based on the following.

[0060]

number

[0061] First purchase probability p fp This is calculated by formula 4. In formula 4, d is the date on which the countermeasure parts are purchased. First purchase probability p fp Since this is a function of date d, p fp (d) is written as p o This shows the order probability calculated by the order probability calculation unit 103. op (d) indicates the probability that the countermeasure parts will be purchased for machines other than the target machine 10. The inventory management unit 104 determines the first purchase probability p fp and the first non-purchase probability (1-p fp ) is the order probability p o It is calculated based on the following.

[0062]

number

[0063] The probability p that countermeasure parts are purchased for machines other than the target machine 10. op (d) is calculated by formula 5. In formula 5, D0 indicates the date on which the replacement part arrives at the local depot (logistics hub). LThis indicates the probability that a replacement part will be purchased per day. The inventory management department 104 calculates the probability p of a replacement part being purchased per day. L This can be calculated from the information stored in the sales history DB205. The inventory management unit 104 then calculates the probability p L Using equation 5, the probability p op (d) Calculate the calculated probability p op Using equation 4 from (d), the first purchase probability p fp The inventory management unit 104 calculates the first purchase probability p each time it performs the process shown in Figure 10. fp This will be updated sequentially.

[0064]

number

[0065] Profit and loss S when a countermeasure part is procured in advance and then purchased by the customer. Total_1 This is calculated by formula 6. In formula 6, S P This indicates the profit from the sale of a countermeasure part when the countermeasure part is procured in advance and then purchased by the customer. The inventory management unit 104 calculates the profit from the sale by subtracting the cost from the part price (selling price) of the countermeasure part stored in the sales history DB 205. P S can be calculated. T This indicates the transportation cost of the replacement part when the replacement part is procured in advance and then purchased by the customer. Transportation cost S T This includes shipping costs, customs duties, administrative fees, and other miscellaneous expenses. The Inventory Management Department 104 calculates the transportation cost S based on publicly available information of the transportation company, using information such as the address of the supplier of the replacement parts, the address of the parts warehouse 40, and the means of transportation, which are stored in the warehouse DB 206. T S can be calculated. S (d) shows the warehouse storage costs for the countermeasure parts when the countermeasure parts are procured in advance and then purchased by the customer. Warehouse storage costs S S(d) is the storage cost in the parts warehouse 40 until the replacement parts are delivered to the customer. The inventory management department 104 calculates the warehouse storage cost S by multiplying the storage cost unit price stored in the warehouse DB 206 by the number of days the replacement parts are stored. S (d) can be calculated.

[0066]

number

[0067] Profit / Loss S when a countermeasure part is procured in advance but is not purchased by the customer. Total_2 This is calculated by formula 7. In formula 7, S T This represents the transportation cost of the countermeasure part in cases where the countermeasure part has been procured in advance but has not been purchased by the customer. Transportation cost S in Formula 7 T This is the transportation cost S in formula 6. T It is the same thing. S NS (d) shows the warehouse storage costs for countermeasure parts when they are procured in advance but not purchased by the customer. Warehouse storage costs S NS (d) is the storage cost in parts warehouse 40 until the replacement parts are destroyed. The inventory management department 104 calculates the warehouse storage cost S by multiplying the storage cost unit price stored in warehouse DB 206 by the number of days the replacement parts are stored. NS (d) can be calculated. ND This indicates the cost of disposing of a replacement part when it is not purchased by the customer after it has been procured in advance. If the replacement part is not purchased by the customer, it is necessary to dispose of the replacement part or return it to the parts warehouse 40, so the inventory management department 104 will deduct the cost of disposing of or returning the replacement part as the disposal cost S. ND It will be accounted for as such.

[0068]

number

[0069] Second expected profit / loss S NFThis is calculated by formula 8. In formula 8, S P This represents the profit from the sale of the countermeasure part when the countermeasure part is purchased by the customer without prior procurement of the countermeasure part. Profit from sale S in Equation 8 P This is the profit from sale S in formula 6. P It is the same thing. S T This represents the transportation cost of the replacement part when the replacement part is purchased by the customer without prior procurement of the replacement part. Transportation cost S in Equation 8 T This is the transportation cost S in formula 6. T It is the same thing. S E This indicates the emergency processing fee, which is higher than usual, due to the urgent procurement of replacement parts. s2 This represents the second purchase probability, which is the probability that the countermeasure part will be purchased by the customer without prior procurement of the countermeasure part. Second purchase probability p s2 This is the probability that a customer will purchase the replacement part on the next delivery date, even though there is a shortage of replacement parts in stock. Second purchase probability p s2 The probability of purchasing the countermeasure parts decreases as the number of days d progresses, so it is a function of the number of days d. The inventory management department 104 calculates the second expected profit and loss S. NF The second purchase probability p s2 It is calculated based on the following.

[0070]

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[0071] Second purchase probability p s2 This is calculated by formula 9. In formula 9, q represents the probability that the customer will wait for the next delivery date of the replacement part that is currently out of stock in parts warehouse 40.

[0072]

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[0073] Expected profit / loss S from procuring replacement parts in advance EC As shown in Figure 13, after the replacement parts arrive at the parts warehouse 40, warehouse storage costs SS An increase in or the first purchase probability p fp Due to fluctuations, it tends to decrease as the number of days d progresses. Expected profit / loss S EC The day on which the value becomes zero is called the demolition reference date, and it serves as a guideline for when to destroy the countermeasure parts. After the demolition reference date, the expected profit / loss S EC This would result in a negative value, which is likely to be a loss for the party responsible for maintaining machine 10. Therefore, the inventory management department 104 will destroy or return the replacement parts to the supplier after the destruction date.

[0074] In step S7, the inventory management unit 104 calculates the expected profit and loss S EC Determine whether it is greater than zero. The calculated expected profit / loss S EC If the value is greater than zero (Step S7: Yes), the inventory management unit 104 proceeds to Step S8. The calculated expected profit / loss S EC If the value is zero or less (Step S7: No), the inventory management unit 104 decides not to procure the replacement parts in advance and terminates the process shown in Figure 10.

[0075] In step S8, the inventory management unit 104 transmits information regarding advance procurement, such as the part ID and required quantity of the countermeasure parts, to the parts warehouse 40 to procure the countermeasure parts in advance.

[0076] In step S9, the impact calculation unit 105 calculates the impact of the failure predicted by the failure prediction unit 101. The impact calculation unit 105 calculates the cost that the customer will incur due to the failure as the impact of the failure. Specifically, as shown in Figure 14, the impact calculation unit 105 calculates the cost C that the customer will incur if a pre-repair is performed, which involves purchasing pre-procured countermeasures and repairing the equipment before the failure occurs. Total_1 And, the cost C that the customer bears when a repair is carried out after a malfunction occurs, by purchasing replacement parts to fix the problem. Total_2 The impact calculation unit 105 then calculates the cost C that the customer will bear if the pre-repair is carried out. Total_1 And the cost C that the customer will bear if post-repair work is performed. Total_2Based on this, the cost benefit to the customer when pre-repair is performed is C EC Calculate.

[0077] The impact calculation unit 105 calculates the cost borne by the customer due to the failure based on the downtime of the machine 10 due to the failure. The downtime of the machine 10 includes at least one of the following: parts procurement time Tw, which is the time required to transport the countermeasure parts from the supplier of the countermeasure parts to the parts warehouse 40; parts transport time Tt, which is the time required to transport the countermeasure parts from the parts warehouse 40 to the location of the machine 10; and repair time Tr, which is the time required to repair the failure using the countermeasure parts. The impact calculation unit 105 can calculate the repair time Tr by extracting past repair times using countermeasure parts stored in the failure / repair history DB 203 and calculating the average value of the extracted repair times.

[0078] If pre-repair is performed, the downtime of machine 10 includes only the repair time Tr, as shown in Figure 15. If post-repair is performed, the downtime of machine 10 includes the repair time Tr, as well as the parts procurement time Tw and the parts transportation time Tt.

[0079] If pre-repair work is carried out, the downtime loss C is the loss incurred due to the downtime of machine 10. D This is calculated by formula 10. In formula 10, Pr represents the expected return for the entire construction project. A represents the total excavation volume for the entire construction project. W k This indicates the average excavation volume per unit time of the target machine 10. The impact calculation unit 105 can obtain the overall expected revenue Pr and the total excavation volume A from the site information DB 207. The impact calculation unit 105 obtains the average excavation volume W per unit time from the machine information DB 202. k You can obtain it.

[0080]

number

[0081] Cost C borne by the customer when pre-repair is performedTotal_1 is calculated by Equation 11. In Equation 11, C P represents the component price of the countermeasure component. C R represents the repair cost when repairing a failure using the countermeasure component. The impact degree calculation unit 105 can obtain the repair cost C R from the failure / repair history DB 203.

[0082] [[]] [[]] [[]]

Number

[0083] [[]] [[]]When post - repair is performed, the operation stop loss C, which is the loss associated with the operation stop time of the machine 10 ND is calculated by Equation 12. In this case, the operation stop time of the machine 10 is the sum of the component procurement time Tw, the component transportation time Tt, and the repair time Tr. [[]]

[0084] [[]] [[]] [[]]

Number

[0085] [[]] [[]]When post - repair is performed, the cost C borne by the customer Total_2 is calculated by Equation 13. [[]]

[0086] [[]] [[]] [[]]

Number

[0087] [[]] [[]]The customer's cost merit C when pre - repair is performed EC is calculated by Equation 14. In Equation 14, p f represents the failure probability of the machine 10. The failure probability p f is estimated by the failure prediction unit 101. [[]]

[0088] [[]] [[]] [[]]

Number

[0089] [[]] [[]]As shown in FIG. 16, the impact calculation unit 105 calculates the cost C borne by the customer when pre-repair is performed Total_1 and the cost C borne by the customer when post-repair is performed Total_2 and can output in a graph format or the like that these change with the passage of days. FIG. 16 also shows the later-described promotion period and promotion price set by the promotion plan creation unit 106. By the impact calculation unit 105 outputting the graph shown in FIG. 16, it becomes easier for the customer to grasp the cost merit C EC when pre-repair is performed.

[0090] In step S10, the promotion plan creation unit 106 creates a promotion plan. The promotion plan creation unit 106 refers to the content of the failure prediction performed by the failure prediction unit 101, the parts list of the countermeasure parts specified by the countermeasure parts identification unit 102, and the failure impact calculated by the impact calculation unit 105, and automatically creates a promotion plan based on this information. The promotion plan includes the content of the failure prediction performed by the failure prediction unit 101, the parts list of the countermeasure parts specified by the countermeasure parts identification unit 102, and the failure impact calculated by the impact calculation unit 105. Further, the promotion plan includes the promotion price and promotion period of the countermeasure parts set by the promotion plan creation unit 106 and precautions.

[0091] The details of the promotion plan will be described. The content of the failure prediction included in the promotion plan includes the failure mode and the failure probability. The parts list included in the promotion plan includes the part ID, part name, and quantity of the countermeasure parts. The failure impact included in the promotion plan includes the cost C Total_1 borne by the customer when pre-repair is performed Total_2 and the cost C borne by the customer when post-repair is performed. The precautions included in the promotion plan include that the countermeasure parts sold at the promotion price may be special-order items and thus may not be delivered immediately, and that additional express delivery costs may occur when purchasing the countermeasure parts after the promotion period or after an accident occurs.

[0092] The promotional price for the countermeasure parts included in the promotional plan is the price of the parts if they are procured in advance, and is lower than the regular price. The promotional period for the parts included in the promotional plan is the period during which the parts are sold at the promotional price.

[0093] The promotional price is calculated using formula 15. In formula 15, P Sale This indicates the promotional price. Normal This indicates the regular price. discount This indicates the discount rate of the promotional price relative to the regular price. Discount rate r discount This is determined comprehensively, taking into account factors such as the parts procurement needs of the company responsible for maintaining machine 10, as well as management decisions.

[0094]

number

[0095] The promotional period is set from the date d1 when the promotional plan is presented to the customer until the predicted failure date d2, as shown in Figure 17. The date d1 when the promotional plan is presented to the customer may be the day when the promotional plan is sent to the terminal device 50. The predicted failure date d2 may be the day when the failure probability for the failure mode corresponding to the part is highest, as estimated by the failure prediction unit 101. The part return date d3 may be the day when the replacement part that arrived at the parts warehouse 40 is returned to the supplier without being purchased. The promotional period may be set from the date d1 when the promotional plan is presented to the customer until the expected arrival date of the replacement part from the supplier to the parts warehouse 40. The sales period at the regular price may be set from the expected arrival date until the part return date d3. The price of the part after the part return date d3 may be set at the regular price plus the express delivery cost, which includes the emergency processing fee for the replacement part. The end date of the promotional period may also be adjusted to coincide with the work schedule of the maintenance workers for machine 10.

[0096] In step S11, the output unit 107 presents the promotional plan created by the promotional plan creation unit 106 to the customer and requests the customer to make a decision to purchase the countermeasure parts. Specifically, the output unit 107 outputs the promotional plan and the information requesting the customer to make a decision to purchase the countermeasure parts to the communication device 100b. The communication device 100b transmits the information requesting the decision along with the promotional plan to the terminal device 50. After step S11, the output unit 107 completes the process shown in Figure 10.

[0097] As shown in Figure 18, the output unit 107 may convert the promotional plan created by the promotional plan creation unit 106 into a quotation format and output it to the communication device 100b in the form of an electronic file. Alternatively, the output unit 107 may mail the promotional plan, which has been converted into a quotation format, to the customer as a paper document instead of transmitting it to the terminal device 50 via the communication device 100b. Furthermore, the output unit 107 may convert the promotional plan into a format other than a quotation.

[0098] As described above, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 is a system that includes a server device 30 that supports the maintenance of the machine 10. The server device 30 includes a communication device 100b that communicates with a terminal device 50 used by the customer of the machine 10, and a processing unit 100a. The arithmetic processing unit 100a includes: a failure prediction unit 101 that estimates the probability of machine 10 failure before a failure occurs and predicts the failure of machine 10; a countermeasure parts identification unit 102 that identifies the countermeasure parts necessary to repair the failure; an order probability calculation unit 103 that calculates the order probability, which indicates the probability of receiving an order for countermeasure parts from a customer of machine 10, based on the failure probability; an inventory management unit 104 that calculates the expected profit and loss expected from pre-procurement, which involves procuring countermeasure parts that are out of stock in the parts warehouse 40 before a failure occurs, based on the order probability, and transmits information regarding pre-procurement to the parts warehouse 40 based on the calculated expected profit and loss; an impact calculation unit 105 that calculates the economic impact of the failure on the customer based on the time required to procure the countermeasure parts; a sales promotion plan creation unit 106 that creates a sales promotion plan for countermeasure parts based on the failure prediction, a list of countermeasure parts, and the economic impact; and an output unit 107 that outputs the sales promotion plan to the communication device 100b. The communication device 100b transmits the sales promotion plan to the terminal device 50.

[0099] In other words, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can predict machine failures in advance, and if there is a shortage of replacement parts in stock, it can calculate the expected profit or loss for the machine maintenance company that would result from pre-procuring replacement parts, and then pre-procure the replacement parts. As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can suppress losses incurred by the machine maintenance company that would result from pre-procuring replacement parts, making it easier for the machine maintenance company to pre-procure replacement parts.

[0100] In addition, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can calculate the economic impact of a failure on the customer, taking into account that the downtime of the machine 10 will be prolonged due to the failure to procure replacement parts in advance. As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can accurately calculate this economic impact without underestimating it. Therefore, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can present the customer with a sales promotion plan that includes the accurately calculated economic impact, making it easier for the customer to understand the benefits of repairing before a failure occurs. Consequently, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can reduce the risk of securing parts inventory due to the uncertainty of the customer's decision regarding repairs, making it easier for the person maintaining the machine 10 to procure replacement parts in advance.

[0101] Thus, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can facilitate the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs, thereby suppressing the prolonged downtime of the machine due to a shortage of parts in stock.

[0102] Furthermore, in the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1, the impact calculation unit 105 calculates the costs incurred by the customer due to a failure based on the downtime of the machine 10, which includes at least one of the time required to transport the countermeasure parts from the supplier of the countermeasure parts to the parts warehouse, the time required to transport the countermeasure parts from the parts warehouse 40 to the location of the machine 10, and the time required to repair the failure using the countermeasure parts. The impact calculation unit 105 calculates the cost benefit for the customer when a pre-repair is performed, based on the costs incurred by the customer when a pre-repair is performed, in which countermeasure parts are purchased in advance and repairs are made before a failure occurs, and the costs incurred by the customer when a post-repair is performed, in which countermeasure parts are purchased and repairs are made after a failure occurs.

[0103] As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can more accurately calculate the economic impact of a failure on the customer, and can make it easier for the customer to understand the benefits of repairing before a failure occurs. Therefore, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further reduce the risk of securing parts inventory due to the uncertainty of the customer's decision regarding repairs, and can make it easier for the maintenance side of the machine 10 to procure countermeasure parts in advance. Thus, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further promote the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs and further suppress the prolonged downtime of the machine due to a shortage of parts in stock.

[0104] Furthermore, in the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1, the inventory management unit 104 calculates a first purchase probability, which is the probability that the countermeasure part will be purchased by the customer after pre-procurement has been carried out, and a first non-purchase probability, which is the probability that the countermeasure part will not be purchased by the customer after pre-procurement has been carried out, based on the order probability, and also calculates a second purchase probability, which is the probability that the part will be purchased by the customer without pre-procurement. The inventory management unit 104 calculates a first expected profit / loss, which is the expected profit / loss when pre-procurement is carried out, based on the first purchase probability and the first non-purchase probability, and calculates a second expected profit / loss, which is the expected profit / loss when pre-procurement is not carried out, based on the second purchase probability. The inventory management unit 104 calculates the total expected profit / loss from the difference between the calculated first expected profit / loss and the second expected profit / loss.

[0105] As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can more accurately calculate the expected profit and loss for the machine maintenance company that maintains the machine 10 by procuring countermeasure parts in advance. Therefore, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further suppress losses incurred by the machine maintenance company that maintains the machine 10 by procuring countermeasure parts in advance, making it easier for the machine maintenance company to procure countermeasure parts in advance. Thus, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further promote the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs and further suppress the prolonged downtime of the machine due to a shortage of stock of such parts.

[0106] Furthermore, in the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1, the inventory management unit 104 calculates the first expected profit / loss as the difference between the value obtained by multiplying the sum of the profit from selling the countermeasure parts, transportation costs, and warehousing costs when the countermeasure parts are purchased after prior procurement by the first purchase probability, and the value obtained by multiplying the sum of the transportation costs, warehousing costs, and disposal costs of the countermeasure parts when the countermeasure parts are not purchased after prior procurement by the first non-purchase probability. The inventory management unit 104 calculates the second expected profit / loss as the value obtained by multiplying the sum of the profit from selling the countermeasure parts, transportation costs, and emergency processing costs when the countermeasure parts are purchased without prior procurement by the second purchase probability.

[0107] As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can more accurately calculate the expected profit and loss for the machine maintenance company that maintains the machine 10 by procuring countermeasure parts in advance. Therefore, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further suppress losses incurred by the machine maintenance company that maintains the machine 10 by procuring countermeasure parts in advance, making it easier for the machine maintenance company to procure countermeasure parts in advance. Thus, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further promote the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs and further suppress the prolonged downtime of the machine due to a shortage of stock of such parts.

[0108] Furthermore, in the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1, the sales promotion plan creation unit 106 sets the price of countermeasure parts to a promotional price that is lower than the normal price when pre-procurement is carried out, and sets a sales promotion period, which is the period during which the countermeasure parts are sold at the promotional price. The sales promotion plan creation unit 106 creates a sales promotion plan that includes the set sales promotion price and sales promotion period.

[0109] As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can make it easier for customers to understand the benefits of repairing before a failure occurs. Therefore, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further reduce the risk of securing parts inventory due to the uncertainty of the customer's decision-making regarding repairs, making it easier for those responsible for maintaining the machine 10 to procure replacement parts in advance. Thus, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further promote the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs, and further suppress the prolonged downtime of the machine due to a shortage of parts.

[0110] Furthermore, in the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1, the output unit 107 outputs information to the communication device 100b requesting the customer to make a decision to purchase countermeasure parts. The communication device 100b transmits the information requesting the decision, along with the sales promotion plan, to the terminal device 50.

[0111] As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further reduce the risk of securing parts inventory due to uncertainty in the customer's decision-making regarding repairs, making it easier for the party maintaining the machine 10 to procure replacement parts in advance. Therefore, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 1 can further promote the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs and further suppress the prolonged downtime of the machine due to a shortage of parts in stock.

[0112] [Embodiment 2] The machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 2 will be described using Figures 19 and 20. In the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 2, the same configuration and operation as in Embodiment 1 will not be described.

[0113] The arithmetic processing unit 100a of Embodiment 2 performs different processing than the arithmetic processing unit 100a of Embodiment 1 when the period until the date of failure predicted based on the failure probability estimated by the failure prediction unit 101 is longer than the time required to procure the countermeasure parts.

[0114] Figure 19 is a flowchart showing the process related to the pre-procurement of the arithmetic processing unit 100a in Embodiment 2. Figure 20 is a diagram showing an example of the sales promotion period and sales promotion price set by the sales promotion plan creation unit 106 in Embodiment 2.

[0115] The arithmetic processing unit 100a of Embodiment 2 performs the same processing as steps S1 to S7 shown in Figure 10 as processing related to pre-procurement. If step S7 shown in Figure 10 is Yes, the arithmetic processing unit 100a of Embodiment 2 performs the processing of step S9 shown in Figure 10 without performing the processing of step S8 shown in Figure 10. After that, the arithmetic processing unit 100a of Embodiment 2 performs steps S21 and S22 shown in Figure 19 instead of steps S10 and S11 shown in Figure 10. Therefore, in Figure 19, the illustration of steps S1 to S7 and step S9 shown in Figure 10 is omitted.

[0116] In step S21, the sales promotion plan creation unit 106 of Embodiment 2 sets a first sales promotion period as the sales promotion period for the countermeasure parts included in the sales promotion plan, as shown in Figure 20, and also sets a second sales promotion period after the first sales promotion period. The sales promotion plan creation unit 106 of Embodiment 2 sets the second sales promotion period until the predicted failure date. The sales promotion plan creation unit 106 of Embodiment 2 sets the first sales promotion price, which is the sales promotion price for the first sales promotion period, to a price lower than the second sales promotion price, which is the sales promotion price for the second sales promotion period. The first sales promotion period may be set, for example, from the date d1 on which the sales promotion plan is presented to the customer to the deadline date for securing parts dd. The second sales promotion period may be set, for example, from the deadline date for securing parts dd to the predicted failure date d2.

[0117] The parts procurement deadline day dd is calculated using formula 16. In formula 16, Tw is the parts procurement time.

[0118]

number

[0119] The sales promotion plan creation unit 106 of Embodiment 2 creates a sales promotion plan that includes, in addition to the information included in the sales promotion plan of Embodiment 1, a first sales promotion price and first sales promotion period, and a second sales promotion price and second sales promotion period. Furthermore, if countermeasure parts are purchased during the second sales promotion period, the sales promotion plan creation unit 106 of Embodiment 2 creates a sales promotion plan that includes a cautionary note indicating that there is a risk of a malfunction occurring before the countermeasure parts arrive at the location of the machine 10.

[0120] In step S22, the output unit 107 of Embodiment 2 presents the promotional plan created by the promotional plan creation unit 106 of Embodiment 2 to the customer and requests the customer to make a decision to purchase the countermeasure parts. Specifically, the output unit 107 of Embodiment 2 outputs the promotional plan created by the promotional plan creation unit 106 of Embodiment 2 and information requesting the customer to make a decision to purchase the countermeasure parts to the communication device 100b.

[0121] In step S23, the inventory management unit 104 of Embodiment 2 determines whether or not an order for countermeasure parts is placed by a customer during the first sales promotion period. If an order for countermeasure parts is placed by a customer during the first sales promotion period (step S23: Yes), the inventory management unit 104 of Embodiment 2 proceeds to step S24. If no order for countermeasure parts is placed by a customer during the first sales promotion period (step S23: No), the inventory management unit 104 of Embodiment 2 proceeds to step S25.

[0122] In step S24, the inventory management unit 104 of Embodiment 2 transmits information regarding advance procurement, such as the part ID and required quantity of the countermeasure parts, to the parts warehouse 40 to perform advance procurement of the countermeasure parts. After that, the inventory management unit 104 completes the process shown in Figure 19.

[0123] In step S25, the inventory management unit 104 of Embodiment 2 determines whether or not an order for countermeasure parts is received from a customer during the second sales promotion period. If an order for countermeasure parts is received from a customer during the second sales promotion period (step S25: Yes), the inventory management unit 104 of Embodiment 2 proceeds to step S24. If no order for countermeasure parts is received from a customer during the second sales promotion period (step S25: No), the inventory management unit 104 of Embodiment 2 terminates the process shown in Figure 19.

[0124] As described above, in the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 2, the sales promotion plan creation unit 106 sets a first sales promotion period and a second sales promotion period that is after the first sales promotion period. If the period until the predicted failure date based on the failure probability is longer than the time required to procure countermeasure parts, the sales promotion plan creation unit 106 sets the second sales promotion period until the predicted failure date. The sales promotion plan creation unit 106 sets the first sales promotion price, which is the sales promotion price for the first sales promotion period, to a price lower than the second sales promotion price, which is the sales promotion price for the second sales promotion period.

[0125] As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 2 can facilitate pre-procurement after confirming the customer's decision regarding repairs, and can also make it easier for customers to understand the benefits of repairing before a failure occurs. Therefore, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 2 can further reduce the risk of securing parts inventory due to uncertainty in the customer's decision regarding repairs, making it easier for those maintaining the machine 10 to pre-procure countermeasure parts. Thus, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 2 can further promote the pre-procurement of parts necessary for repairs and further suppress the prolonged downtime of the machine due to a shortage of such parts.

[0126] [Embodiment 3] The machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 3 will be described using Figure 21. The same configuration and operation as in Embodiment 1 will not be described in the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 3.

[0127] The order probability calculation unit 103 of Embodiment 1 calculates the parts purchase probability p, which is the probability that a countermeasure part will be purchased by the customer after a failure occurs in a certain failure mode. bi This was calculated based on the repair history of machine 10 using the countermeasure parts, and the sales history of the countermeasure parts. The order probability calculation unit 103 of Embodiment 3 calculates the calculated parts purchase probability p bi The pre-learned parts price and the probability of purchasing the parts p bi The adjustment is made based on the relationship with the order probability calculation unit 103 of Embodiment 3. bi Based on this, the probability of receiving an order for the countermeasure part is calculated from Formula 1.

[0128] Figure 21 shows the component price and component purchase probability p of the countermeasure component used by the order probability calculation unit 103 of Embodiment 3. bi This figure shows an example of the relationship.

[0129] As shown in Figure 21, generally, the lower the price of a part, the lower the probability of purchasing that part p. bi The price of the countermeasure part and the probability of purchasing the part p will increase. bi The relationship can be machine-learned using the parts price of the countermeasure parts stored in the sales history DB205 and the number of times the countermeasure parts were purchased, which is aggregated from the sales date of the countermeasure parts stored in the sales history DB205. The order probability calculation unit 103 of Embodiment 3 calculates the parts purchase probability p in the same way as in Embodiment 1. bi Figure 21 shows the price of the countermeasure component and the probability of purchasing the component p. bi It can be adjusted based on its relationship with [the other party].

[0130] As a result, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 3 can calculate the probability of receiving an order by taking into account the fluctuation in the probability of purchasing parts due to fluctuations in part prices, and can more accurately calculate the expected profit or loss for the party maintaining the machine 10 that can be expected by procuring countermeasure parts in advance. Therefore, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 3 can make it easier for the party maintaining the machine 10 to procure countermeasure parts in advance. Thus, the machine maintenance support system 1 of Embodiment 3 can further promote the advance procurement of parts necessary for repairs and further suppress the prolonged downtime of the machine due to a shortage of parts in stock.

[0131] It should be noted that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, and various modifications are included. For example, the embodiments described above are described in detail to make the present invention easier to understand, and are not necessarily limited to those having all the configurations described. Furthermore, it is possible to replace a part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, and it is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. In addition, it is possible to add, delete, or replace parts of the configuration of each embodiment with other configurations.

[0132] Furthermore, each of the above configurations, functions, processing units, and processing means may be implemented in hardware, either partially or entirely, by designing them, for example, using integrated circuits. Alternatively, each of the above configurations and functions may be implemented in software by having the processor interpret and execute programs that realize each function. Information such as programs, tapes, and files that realize each function can be stored in memory, recording devices such as hard disks and SSDs (solid state drives), or recording media such as IC cards, SD cards, and DVDs.

[0133] Furthermore, the control lines and information lines shown are those deemed necessary for explanatory purposes, and not all control lines and information lines are necessarily shown in the actual product. In reality, it is safe to assume that almost all components are interconnected. [Explanation of symbols]

[0134] 1...Machine maintenance support system, 10...Machine, 30...Server device, 50...Terminal device, 100a...Calculation processing unit, 101...Fault prediction unit, 102...Countermeasure parts identification unit, 103...Order probability calculation unit, 104...Inventory management unit, 105...Impact calculation unit, 106...Sales promotion plan creation unit, 107...Output unit, 100b...Communication device

Claims

1. A machine maintenance support system equipped with a server device to assist in machine maintenance, The server device includes a communication device that communicates with terminal devices used by the customer of the machine, and a processing unit. The aforementioned arithmetic processing unit is A failure prediction unit that estimates the probability of failure of the machine before a failure of the machine occurs and predicts the failure of the machine, A countermeasure part identification unit that identifies the countermeasure parts necessary to repair the aforementioned failure, An order probability calculation unit that calculates an order probability, which indicates the probability of receiving an order for the countermeasure parts from a customer of the machine, based on the failure probability, An inventory management unit calculates the expected profit or loss that can be expected by pre-procuring the countermeasure parts that are in short supply in the parts warehouse before the failure occurs, based on the probability of receiving the order, and transmits information regarding the pre-procurement to the parts warehouse based on the calculated expected profit or loss. An impact calculation unit that calculates the economic impact of the failure on the customer based on the time required to procure the aforementioned countermeasure parts, A sales promotion plan creation unit creates a sales promotion plan for the countermeasure parts based on the contents of the failure prediction, the list of countermeasure parts, and the economic impact. It has an output unit that outputs the aforementioned sales promotion plan to the communication device, The communication device transmits the promotional plan to the terminal device. A machine maintenance support system characterized by the following features.

2. The aforementioned impact calculation unit, Based on the downtime of the machine, which includes at least one of the time required to transport the countermeasure parts from the supplier of the countermeasure parts to the parts warehouse, the time required to transport the countermeasure parts from the parts warehouse to the location of the machine, and the time required to repair the malfunction using the countermeasure parts, the cost borne by the customer due to the malfunction is calculated. The cost benefit for the customer when the pre-repair is performed is calculated based on the costs borne by the customer when the pre-repair is performed, which involves purchasing the pre-procured countermeasure parts and repairing the damage before the damage occurs, and the costs borne by the customer when the post-repair is performed, which involves purchasing the countermeasure parts and repairing the damage after the damage has occurred. The machine maintenance support system according to feature 1.

3. The aforementioned inventory management department, A first purchase probability, which is the probability that the countermeasure part will be purchased by the customer after the aforementioned pre-procurement has taken place, and a first non-purchase probability, which is the probability that the countermeasure part will not be purchased by the customer after the aforementioned pre-procurement has taken place, are calculated based on the order probability, A second purchase probability is calculated, which is the probability that the countermeasure parts will be purchased by the customer without the aforementioned prior procurement taking place. The first expected profit / loss, which is the expected profit / loss when the aforementioned advance procurement is carried out, is calculated based on the first purchase probability and the first non-purchase probability, and the second expected profit / loss, which is the expected profit / loss when the aforementioned advance procurement is not carried out, is calculated based on the second purchase probability. The total expected profit / loss is calculated from the difference between the first expected profit / loss and the second expected profit / loss. The machine maintenance support system according to feature 1.

4. The aforementioned inventory management department, The first expected profit / loss mentioned above is, The calculation is performed by multiplying the sum of the profit from the sale of the countermeasure parts, transportation costs, and warehousing costs when the countermeasure parts are purchased after the aforementioned advance procurement has been carried out by the first purchase probability, and by multiplying the sum of the transportation costs, warehousing costs, and disposal costs of the countermeasure parts when the countermeasure parts are not purchased after the aforementioned advance procurement has been carried out by the first non-purchase probability. The above-mentioned second expected profit / loss is, The calculation is performed by multiplying the sum of the profit from the sale of the countermeasure parts, transportation costs, and emergency processing costs in the case where the countermeasure parts are purchased without prior procurement by the second purchase probability. The machine maintenance support system according to feature 3.

5. The aforementioned order probability calculation unit, Based on the repair history of the machine using the countermeasure parts and the sales history of the countermeasure parts, the probability of the customer purchasing the countermeasure parts after the failure occurs is calculated. The calculated probability of purchasing the part is adjusted based on the relationship between the price of the countermeasure part and the probability of purchasing the part, which has been learned in advance. Based on the adjusted probability of purchasing the parts, the probability of receiving the order is calculated. The machine maintenance support system according to feature 1.

6. The aforementioned sales promotion plan creation department, In the case of the aforementioned advance procurement, the price of the countermeasure parts shall be set at a promotional price lower than the normal price, and a promotional period shall be set for the sales period of the countermeasure parts at the aforementioned promotional price. Create a promotional plan that includes the set promotional price and the promotional period. The machine maintenance support system according to feature 1.

7. The aforementioned sales promotion plan creation department, As the aforementioned promotion period, a first promotion period is set, and a second promotion period is set after the first promotion period. If the period until the date of occurrence of the failure predicted based on the failure probability is longer than the time required to procure the countermeasure parts, the second sales promotion period shall be set until the predicted date of occurrence of the failure. The first promotional price, which is the promotional price during the first promotional period, is set to be lower than the second promotional price, which is the promotional price during the second promotional period. The machine maintenance support system according to feature 6.

8. The output unit outputs information to the communication device requesting the customer to make a decision to purchase the countermeasure parts. The communication device transmits the information requesting the decision-making, along with the sales promotion plan, to the terminal device. The machine maintenance support system according to feature 1.

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