Evaluation device, evaluation method, and program

Abstract

To provide an evaluation device capable of appropriately evaluating the impact of overflow on equipment.SOLUTION: The evaluation device includes: an overflow condition setting unit that sets parameter values for overflow conditions including the amount of overflow per unit time from an overflowing source and the amount of water discharged per unit time from a room into which water flows from the overflowing source based on the probability distribution; an overflow time setting unit that sets overflow time as the time from a point when the overflow from the overflow source starts to a point when it stops; a water level calculation unit that calculates the water level in a room based on the parameter value of overflow condition and overflow time; and a determination unit that determines whether equipment installed in a room will be submerged in water.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an evaluation device, an evaluation method, and a program.

Background Art

[0002] In facilities such as nuclear power plants, equipment is installed in rooms. If water overflows from a water overflow source, the equipment may be submerged and stop functioning. Therefore, in such facilities, it is required to evaluate in advance the impact of water overflow on the equipment. For example, in Patent Document 1, when partition information including the size of the partition, path information necessary for calculating the flow of water, and water overflow source information including the position and the amount of water overflow are input, a device that calculates the submerged water level for each partition based on these input values is described.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] In Patent Document 1, the water overflow source information including the amount of water overflow is a fixed value input from the user. However, parameters that affect the water level in the room, such as the amount of water overflow, are not actually fixed values and have uncertainty (variation). Therefore, the technique of Patent Document 1 cannot consider uncertainty, and there is room for improvement in appropriately evaluating the impact of water overflow on the equipment.

[0005] An object of the present disclosure is to provide an evaluation device, an evaluation method, and a program capable of appropriately evaluating the impact of water overflow on equipment.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] The evaluation apparatus according to this disclosure includes: an overflow condition setting unit that sets parameter values ​​for overflow conditions, including the amount of overflow per unit time from an overflow source and the amount of water discharged per unit time from a room into which water from the overflow source flows, based on a probability distribution; an overflow time setting unit that sets the overflow time, which is the time from when the overflow from the overflow source starts until it stops; a water level calculation unit that calculates the water level in the room based on the parameter values ​​for the overflow conditions and the overflow time; and a determination unit that determines whether equipment installed in the room is submerged based on the calculated water level.

[0007] The evaluation method relating to this disclosure includes the steps of: setting parameter values ​​for flood conditions, which include the amount of flooding per unit time from a flood source and the amount of water discharged per unit time from a room into which water from the flood source flows, based on a probability distribution; setting the flood time, which is the time from when the flooding from the flood source starts until it stops; calculating the water level in the room based on the parameter values ​​for the flood conditions and the flood time; and determining whether the equipment installed in the room is submerged based on the calculated water level.

[0008] The program relating to this disclosure causes a computer to perform the following steps: setting parameter values ​​for flood conditions, including the amount of flooding per unit time from a flood source and the amount of water discharged per unit time from a room into which water from the flood source flows, based on a probability distribution; setting the flood time, which is the time from when the flooding from the flood source starts until it stops; calculating the water level in the room based on the parameter values ​​for the flood conditions and the flood time; and determining whether the equipment installed in the room will be submerged based on the calculated water level. [Effects of the Invention]

[0009] According to this disclosure, the impact of flooding on equipment can be appropriately evaluated. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0010] [Figure 1]Figure 1 is a schematic diagram of the equipment according to this embodiment. [Figure 2] Figure 2 is a schematic block diagram of the evaluation device according to this embodiment. [Figure 3] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating how to set parameter values ​​for flood conditions based on probability distributions. [Figure 4] Figure 4 is a table showing an example of an overflow scenario. [Figure 5] Figure 5 is a graph showing an example of water level. [Figure 6] Figure 6 is a table showing an example of the judgment results. [Figure 7] Figure 7 is a schematic diagram showing an example of the output content. [Figure 8] Figure 8 is a flowchart illustrating the processing flow of the evaluation device according to this embodiment. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0011] Preferred embodiments of the present disclosure will be described in detail below with reference to the attached drawings. However, this disclosure is not limited to these embodiments, and if there are multiple embodiments, they may be combinations of these embodiments.

[0012] (equipment) Figure 1 is a schematic diagram of the equipment according to this embodiment. The evaluation device 10 according to this embodiment is a device that predicts the water level in room R provided in equipment R0 when overflow occurs from the overflow source T of equipment R0, and evaluates the possibility of equipment M provided in room R being submerged. Equipment R0 may be equipment for any purpose in which room R is provided, but in this embodiment it is a nuclear power plant.

[0013] Facility R0 is provided with multiple rooms R. At least some of the rooms R are equipped with equipment M. Equipment M is equipment for operating facility R0. In addition, at least some of the rooms R are equipped with overflow sources T. Overflow sources T are equipment for storing or conducting water, such as water storage containers or water piping.

[0014] Furthermore, water can flow between adjacent rooms R. Examples of water flow paths between adjacent rooms R include, for example, passages that are not separated by doors and connect rooms R, spaces with stairs that are not separated by doors and connect rooms R, and gaps in doors D that separate rooms R. Room R also has a drainage path for discharging water from it. The drainage path is a different path from the flow path and is a path for discharging water from room R to a place other than other rooms R (for example, a drainpipe). An example of a drainage path is a drain installed in the floor of room R. In addition, room R may have a weir U that separates a part of the space of room R from other spaces. The weir U is a wall that extends from the floor of room R to a predetermined height and does not reach the ceiling of room R.

[0015] In Figure 1, adjacent rooms R1 and R2 are shown as examples of room R. Room R1 is equipped with an overflow source T and equipment M1. Room R2 is equipped with equipment M2 and a weir U. Rooms R1 and R2 are connected by a door, and water in room R1 can enter room R2 through a passage such as a gap in the door. However, Figure 1 is just an example, and the number of rooms R in facility R0 and the layout of rooms R can be arbitrary. Also, the type and number of equipment M in room R can be arbitrary. For example, if multiple equipment M are installed in one room R, flooding can be checked for each of those pieces of equipment M.

[0016] (Evaluation device) FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram of an evaluation apparatus according to the present embodiment. The evaluation apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment is, for example, a computer, and as shown in FIG. 2, includes an input unit 20, an output unit 30, a communication unit 40, a storage unit 50, and a control unit 60. The input unit 20 is a device that receives a user's operation, and may be, for example, a mouse, a keyboard, a touch panel, or the like. The output unit 30 is a device that outputs information, and may be, for example, a display that displays an image. The communication unit 40 is a module that communicates with an external device or the like, and may include, for example, an antenna. The communication method by the communication unit 40 is wireless communication in the present embodiment, but the communication method may be arbitrary. Note that the evaluation apparatus 10 does not necessarily have to include the input unit 20, the output unit 30, and the communication unit 40. Further, the evaluation apparatus 10 may be configured as a single device, may be configured integrally with another device, or may be configured as a system that combines various devices such as an arithmetic unit and a data server, and is not particularly limited.

[0017] The storage unit 50 is a memory that stores various information such as the calculation content and programs of the control unit 60, and includes, for example, at least one of a main storage device such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) and a ROM (Read Only Memory), and an external storage device such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive). The program for the control unit 60 stored in the storage unit 50 may be stored in a recording medium readable by the evaluation apparatus 10.

[0018] The control unit 60 is an arithmetic unit and includes an arithmetic circuit such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit). The control unit 60 includes an overflow condition setting unit 70, an overflow time setting unit 72, a water level calculation unit 74, a determination unit 76, an evaluation unit 78, and an output control unit 80. The control unit 60 reads a program (software) from the storage unit 50 and executes it to realize the overflow condition setting unit 70, the overflow time setting unit 72, the water level calculation unit 74, the determination unit 76, the evaluation unit 78, and the output control unit 80, and executes their processes. Note that the control unit 60 may execute these processes by one CPU, or may include a plurality of CPUs and execute the processes by these plurality of CPUs. Also, at least a part of the overflow condition setting unit 70, the overflow time setting unit 72, the water level calculation unit 74, the determination unit 76, the evaluation unit 78, and the output control unit 80 may be realized by hardware.

[0019] Hereinafter, the processing content of the evaluation device 10 will be described.

[0020] (Setting of Overflow Conditions) The overflow condition setting unit 70 sets parameter values of overflow conditions based on a probability distribution. The overflow condition is a parameter that affects the water level of the room R when overflow occurs from the overflow source T, and the parameter value of the overflow condition is the value of that parameter. The overflow condition setting unit 70 sets a plurality of types of overflow conditions.

[0021] The overflow condition may be any parameter, but in this embodiment, it includes the amount of water overflowing per unit time from the overflow source T and the amount of water discharged per unit time from the room R (rooms R1 and R2 in the example of FIG. 1) into which water flows from the overflow source T. The amount of water overflowing per unit time is the amount of water supplied per unit time from the overflow source T to the room R. When there are a plurality of overflow sources T, the amount of water overflowing may be set for each overflow source T. The amount of discharge per unit time refers to the amount of water discharged per unit time from the discharge path (drain in this example).

[0022] Furthermore, it is preferable to include the amount of water flowing per unit time between adjacent rooms R as an overflow condition. The amount of water flowing per unit time between adjacent rooms R refers to the difference between the amount of water flowing in and out of the flow path, and is a parameter that indicates how much water flows into or out of room R through the flow path. The amount of water flowing may be the sum of the amounts of water flowing through multiple flow paths, for example, the sum of the amount of water flowing through the gap in the door, the amount of water flowing through the passageway, and the amount of water flowing through the space where the stairs are provided. In addition, the floor area of ​​room R, the height of the weir U, and the door opening height may also be included as an overflow condition. The height of the weir U is the distance from the floor surface to the top surface of the weir U, and the door opening height is the distance from the floor surface to the top surface of the door.

[0023] In this embodiment, the flood condition setting unit 70 sets parameter values ​​based on a probability distribution for some flood conditions, and uses pre-set fixed values ​​as parameter values ​​for other flood conditions. Specifically, the flood condition setting unit 70 sets the flood amount per unit time and the discharge amount per unit time based on a probability distribution. The flood condition setting unit 70 also sets the flow rate per unit time to other rooms R based on a probability distribution. However, if the flow rate per unit time is determined by the sum of multiple parameter values, the flood condition setting unit 70 may set some of the parameters included in the flow rate using a probability distribution and use fixed values ​​for the other parameters included in the flow rate. For example, the flood condition setting unit 70 may set parameter values ​​based on a probability distribution for the flow rate per unit time through door gaps, and use fixed values ​​as parameter values ​​for the flow rate per unit time through passageways and the flow rate per unit time through spaces where stairs are provided. Furthermore, it is preferable that the flood condition setting unit 70 sets fixed values ​​as parameter values ​​for the floor area of ​​room R and the height of weir U, and it is preferable that the parameter value for the door opening height is set based on a probability distribution. In this way, by setting whether to use a probability distribution or fixed values ​​according to the type of flood condition, evaluation can be performed with high accuracy.

[0024] (Settings based on fixed values) The method for setting the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions to fixed values ​​is arbitrary. For example, predetermined fixed values ​​may be stored in the storage unit 50, and the flood condition setting unit 70 may read the fixed values ​​from the storage unit 50 and set them as the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions. Alternatively, the flood condition setting unit 70 may obtain fixed values ​​from other devices via the communication unit 40 and set them as the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions. Alternatively, a user may input fixed values ​​into the input unit 20, and the flood condition setting unit 70 may set the fixed values ​​input via the input unit 20 as the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions.

[0025] (Settings based on probability distribution) This section describes how to set parameter values ​​for flood conditions based on a probability distribution. Figure 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating how to set parameter values ​​for flood conditions based on a probability distribution. The flood condition setting unit 70 acquires information on the probability distribution of the parameter values ​​of the flood condition to be set, and sets the parameter values ​​of the flood condition based on the acquired probability distribution. A probability distribution is data that shows the correspondence between the possible values ​​of a parameter value and the cumulative probability. In this embodiment, the possible values ​​of a random number and the cumulative probability are pre-associated, and the flood condition setting unit 70 randomly determines a random number and sets the parameter value in the cumulative probability corresponding to the set random number as the parameter value of that flood condition. For example, in the example in Figure 3, the probability distribution is set such that the degree of change of the parameter value in response to a change in the unit amount of the cumulative probability increases as the cumulative probability increases. In the example in Figure 3, the parameter value Xu in the cumulative probability Yu corresponding to the randomly set random number u is set as the parameter value of that flood condition. However, the probability distribution in Figure 3 is just one example.

[0026] The probability distribution of the parameter values ​​may be set arbitrarily. For example, it is preferable that the flood condition setting unit 70 calculates the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions using a different probability distribution for each flood condition. Specific examples of probability distributions for each flood condition are described below.

[0027] For example, the flood condition setting unit 70 may set the probability distribution of flood volume from flood source T based on past data of flood volume from flood source. In this case, for example, the flood condition setting unit 70 acquires the flood volume and cumulative frequency from past data. The method of acquiring the flood volume and cumulative frequency is arbitrary; for example, data entered by the user may be acquired, or data may be acquired by communication from other devices. The flood volume and cumulative frequency may be acquired, for example, from the EPRI flood occurrence frequency database. The flood condition setting unit 70 acquires multiple sets of flood volume and cumulative frequency. Based on the multiple sets of flood volume and cumulative frequency, the flood condition setting unit 70 sets a frequency distribution that shows the correspondence between cumulative frequency and flood volume, for example by logarithmic interpolation, and converts the cumulative frequency in the frequency distribution into a cumulative probability to set the probability distribution of flood volume. In this way, by setting the probability distribution of flood volume based on past data, evaluation can be performed with high accuracy.

[0028] For example, the overflow condition setting unit 70 may use a normal distribution for the probability distribution of the amount of water discharged from the discharge path. Also, for example, the overflow condition setting unit 70 may use a normal distribution for the probability distribution of the amount of water flowing through the gap in the door. Also, for example, the overflow condition setting unit 70 may use a log-normal distribution for the probability distribution of the door opening height.

[0029] The flood condition setting unit 70 sets multiple parameter values ​​for each flood condition by setting multiple parameter values ​​for the same flood condition. More specifically, for flood conditions set based on a probability distribution, the flood condition setting unit 70 calculates the parameter values ​​based on that probability distribution multiple times and sets multiple parameter values. In other words, if a set of multiple types of flood conditions is called a flood condition group, then the flood condition setting unit 70 sets multiple flood condition groups in which the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions set based on a probability distribution are different from each other. The number of flood condition groups can be arbitrary.

[0030] (Setting the flood time) The flood time setting unit 72 sets the flood time. Flood time refers to the time from when flooding from the flood source T begins until the flooding stops. In this embodiment, the flood time setting unit 72 sets multiple flood times with different durations. The flood time setting unit 72 may set the flood time to any duration, and the number of flood times to be set may also be arbitrary. If there are multiple flood sources T, the flood time may be set for each flood source T.

[0031] The flood time setting unit 72 sets a weighting coefficient for each flood time. The weighting coefficient is used when calculating the probability that the equipment M described later will be submerged. The flood time setting unit 72 sets the weighting for the flood times such that the more likely the actual flood time is to be that flood time, the greater the weight given to the evaluation of the possibility of equipment M being submerged (the greater the influence on the evaluation of the possibility of equipment M being submerged).

[0032] (Calculation of water level) The water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level in room R based on the parameter values ​​of the overflow conditions set by the overflow condition setting unit 70 and the overflow time set by the overflow time setting unit 72. The water level in room R refers to, for example, the height of the water surface in room R from the floor, but is not limited to that, and may be any indicator that shows the amount of water present in room R. The water level calculation unit 74 may calculate the water level in the room using any method based on the overflow conditions and overflow time, and may use a known method. For example, it is possible to calculate the amount of water present in room R per unit time based on the overflow conditions, and to calculate the time for which water continues to be supplied from the overflow source T based on the overflow time, so the water level calculation unit 74 can calculate the water level in room R per unit time based on the overflow conditions and overflow time.

[0033] Figure 4 is a table showing an example of an overflow scenario. In this embodiment, as described above, multiple parameter values ​​are set for the same overflow condition; in other words, multiple groups of overflow conditions are set. Therefore, the water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level of room R for each group of overflow conditions. Also, as described above, in this embodiment, multiple overflow times are set. Therefore, the water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level of room R for each overflow time. More specifically, if a combination of one group of overflow times and one overflow time is considered an overflow scenario, the water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level of room R in that overflow scenario based on the parameter values ​​of the overflow conditions and the overflow time in that overflow scenario. The water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level of room R in all overflow scenarios, which are combinations of each group of overflow times and each overflow time. In the example in Figure 4, overflow condition groups A1, A2, and A3 are set as overflow condition groups, and overflow times B1, B2, and B3 are set as overflow times. In this case, the water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level for each of the flood scenarios A1B1, A1B2, A1B3, A2B1, A2B2, A2B3, A3B1, A3B2, and A3B3. Flood scenario A1B1 is a combination of flood condition group A1 and flood time B1, flood scenario A1B2 is a combination of flood condition group A1 and flood time B2, and so on; the others are similar, so further explanation is omitted. In the example in Figure 4, the weighting coefficients for flood times B1, B2, and B3 are set to 0.1, 0.8, and 0.1, respectively. Therefore, the weighting coefficients for flood scenarios A1B1, A2B1, and A3B1 are 0.1, the weighting coefficients for flood scenarios A1B2, A2B2, and A3B2 are 0.8, and the weighting coefficients for flood scenarios A1B3, A2B3, and A3B3 are 0.1. However, Figure 4 is just one example.

[0034] Figure 5 is a graph showing an example of water levels. As shown in Figure 5, the water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level of each room R per unit time. Figure 5 shows the water levels of each room R per hour in a certain flooding scenario. In Figure 5, the horizontal axis is time and the vertical axis is water level, with line L1 showing an example of the water level in room R1 and L2 showing an example of the water level in room R2. However, Figure 5 is just one example.

[0035] (Water submersion detection of the device) The determination unit 76 determines whether the equipment M installed in room R will be submerged based on the water level of room R calculated by the water level calculation unit 74. The determination unit 76 determines whether the equipment M in each room R will be submerged based on the water level of each room R. In this embodiment, a water level threshold is set for each room R, and the determination unit 76 determines that the equipment in room R will be submerged if the water level of room R calculated by the water level calculation unit 74 is equal to or greater than the threshold, and determines that the equipment in room R will not be submerged if the water level of room R calculated by the water level calculation unit 74 is less than the threshold. That is, for example, the determination unit 76 determines that if the water level of room R1 is equal to or greater than the threshold for room R1, the equipment M1 in room R1 will be submerged, and if the water level of room R2 is equal to or greater than the threshold for room R2, the equipment M2 in room R2 will be submerged.

[0036] Figure 6 is a table showing an example of the judgment results. In this embodiment, as described above, multiple parameter values ​​are set for the same flooding condition; in other words, multiple flooding condition groups are set. Therefore, the judgment unit 76 determines whether the equipment M will be submerged for each flooding condition group. Also, as described above, multiple flooding times are set in this embodiment. Therefore, the water level calculation unit 74 determines whether the equipment M will be submerged for each flooding time. More specifically, the judgment unit 76 determines whether the equipment M will be submerged for each flooding scenario. For example, Figure 6 illustrates three flooding scenarios A1B1, A1B2, and A1B3, which have the same flooding condition group A1 but different flooding times. In this case, the judgment unit 76 determines whether the equipment M1 and M2 will be submerged in flooding scenario A1B1 based on the water levels of rooms R1 and R2 calculated for flooding scenario A1B1. Similarly, the determination unit 76 determines whether equipment M1 and M2 will be submerged in flood scenario A1B2 based on the water levels of rooms R1 and R2 calculated for flood scenario A1B2. Similarly, the determination unit 76 determines whether equipment M1 and M2 will be submerged in flood scenario A1B3 based on the water levels of rooms R1 and R2 calculated for flood scenario A1B3. In the example in Figure 6, the determination results show that both equipment M1 and M2 will be submerged in flood scenario A1B1, neither equipment M1 nor M2 will be submerged in flood scenario A1B2, and only equipment M1 will be submerged in flood scenario A1B1.

[0037] (Assessment of the likelihood of flooding) The evaluation unit 78 calculates the probability of equipment M being submerged based on the judgment result from the determination unit 76. The evaluation unit 78 calculates the probability of equipment M being submerged based on the judgment result for each flooding scenario. The method for calculating the probability of equipment M being submerged based on the judgment result for each flooding scenario may be arbitrary, but an example of the calculation method is described below.

[0038] In this example, the evaluation unit 78 extracts flood scenarios that belong to the same flood condition group but have different flood times. Then, the evaluation unit 78 calculates the probability of equipment M being submerged based on the judgment result and weighting coefficient for each of the extracted flood scenarios. For example, in the example in Figure 6, the weighting for flood scenario A1B1 is 0.1, the weighting for flood scenario A1B2 is 0.8, and the weighting for flood scenario A1B3 is 0.1. Therefore, the evaluation unit 78 may determine that for flood condition group A1, there is a 10% chance that both equipment M1 and M2 will be submerged, an 80% chance that neither equipment M1 nor M2 will be submerged, and a 10% chance that only equipment M1 will be submerged.

[0039] The evaluation unit 78 extracts flood scenarios with different flood times but belonging to the same flood condition group using the same method for each flood condition group, and calculates the possibility of equipment M being submerged for each flood condition group. The evaluation unit 78 calculates the possibility of equipment M being submerged based on the possibility of equipment M being submerged for each flood condition group. For example, the evaluation unit 78 may calculate the average value of the possibility of equipment M being submerged for each flood condition group, and use the calculated average value as the calculated value for the possibility of equipment M being submerged. That is, for example, the evaluation unit 78 treats the average value of the possibility of both equipment M1 and M2 being submerged in each flood condition group as the calculated value for the possibility of both equipment M1 and M2 being submerged. The same applies to the possibility that neither equipment M1 nor M2 is submerged, the possibility that only equipment M1 is submerged, and the possibility that only equipment M2 is submerged, so an explanation is omitted.

[0040] (Information output) Figure 7 is a schematic diagram showing an example of the output content. The output control unit 80 outputs the calculation results of the evaluation device 10 described above. For example, the output control unit 80 outputs the calculation results of the possibility of equipment M being submerged, calculated by the evaluation unit 78. For example, in Figure 7, the output control unit 80 shows an example in which the output unit 30 outputs pie charts showing the possibility X1 that both equipment M1 and M2 are submerged, the possibility X2 that neither equipment M1 nor M2 are submerged, the possibility X3 that only equipment M1 is submerged, and the possibility X4 that only equipment M2 is submerged, as calculation results of the possibility of equipment M being submerged, calculated by the evaluation unit 78. However, the content output by the output control unit 80 is not limited to the evaluation results of the possibility of equipment M being submerged, and may also be, for example, the judgment results by the judgment unit 76. Furthermore, the output control unit 80 is not limited to outputting the calculation results of the evaluation device 10 to the output unit 30, but may also output the calculation results of the evaluation device 10 to other devices via the communication unit 40.

[0041] (Processing flow) Next, the processing flow of the evaluation device 10 described above will be explained. Figure 8 is a flowchart illustrating the processing flow of the evaluation device according to this embodiment. As shown in Figure 8, the evaluation device 10 sets the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions using the flood condition setting unit 70 (step S10). The flood condition setting unit 70 sets multiple flood condition groups with different parameter values. The evaluation device 10 also sets the flood time using the flood time setting unit 72 (step S12). The flood time setting unit 72 sets multiple flood times. The order in which steps S10 and S12 are performed is arbitrary.

[0042] Once the flooding conditions and flooding time are set, the evaluation device 10 uses the water level calculation unit 74 to calculate the water level in room R for each flooding scenario based on the flooding conditions and flooding time (step S14), and the determination unit 76 determines whether the equipment M will be submerged for each flooding scenario (step S16). Then, the evaluation device 10 uses the evaluation unit 78 to calculate the possibility of equipment M being submerged based on the determination result for each flooding scenario (step S18).

[0043] As described above, the evaluation device 10 according to this embodiment sets the parameter values ​​for flood conditions based on a probability distribution, calculates the water level in room R based on the parameter values ​​for flood conditions and the flood time, and determines whether the equipment M will be submerged. By setting the parameter value for flood time using a probability distribution in this way, the impact of flooding on the equipment can be appropriately evaluated while taking uncertainty into account. Furthermore, in this embodiment, multiple parameter values ​​for flood conditions and flood time are set, and the water level is calculated and submersion is determined for each flood scenario. Therefore, the impact of flooding on the equipment can be appropriately evaluated while taking uncertainty into account more appropriately.

[0044] (effect) The evaluation device 10 according to the first aspect of this disclosure includes an overflow condition setting unit 70, an overflow time setting unit 72, a water level calculation unit 74, and a determination unit 76. The overflow condition setting unit 70 sets parameter values ​​for overflow conditions, including the amount of overflow per unit time from the overflow source T and the amount of water discharged per unit time from the room R into which the water from the overflow source T flows, based on a probability distribution. The overflow time setting unit 72 sets the overflow time, which is the time from when the overflow from the overflow source T starts until it stops. The water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level in room R based on the parameter values ​​for the overflow conditions and the overflow time. The determination unit 76 determines whether the equipment M installed in room R is submerged based on the calculated water level. According to this disclosure, by setting the parameter value for the overflow time using a probability distribution, the impact of overflow on equipment can be appropriately evaluated, taking uncertainty into account.

[0045] The evaluation device 10 according to the second aspect of this disclosure is the evaluation device according to the first aspect, wherein the flood condition setting unit 70 sets multiple parameter values ​​for the same flood condition, the water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level for each parameter value of the flood condition, and the determination unit 76 determines whether the equipment will be submerged for each parameter value of the flood condition. In this way, by setting multiple parameter values ​​for the same flood condition, in other words, by setting a group of flood conditions, it is possible to determine whether the equipment M will be submerged for each group of flood conditions, and the impact of flooding on the equipment can be appropriately evaluated while more appropriately considering uncertainty.

[0046] The evaluation device 10 according to the third aspect of this disclosure is an evaluation device according to the first or second aspect, wherein the flood time setting unit 72 sets multiple flood times, the water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level for each flood time, and the determination unit 76 determines whether the equipment M is submerged for each flood condition. By determining whether the equipment M is submerged for each of the multiple flood times in this way, the impact of flooding on the equipment can be appropriately evaluated by more appropriately considering the uncertainty.

[0047] The evaluation device 10 according to the fourth aspect of this disclosure is an evaluation device according to the third aspect, wherein the flood time setting unit 72 sets a weighting coefficient for each flood time, with the weighting coefficient increasing as the likelihood of that flood time increases. The evaluation device 10 also further includes an evaluation unit 78 that calculates the possibility of equipment M being submerged based on the determination result of whether equipment M will be submerged for each flood time and the weighting coefficient for each flood time. According to this disclosure, by calculating the possibility of submersion based on the determination result for each flood time and the weighting coefficient, the impact of flooding on equipment can be appropriately evaluated by more appropriately considering uncertainty.

[0048] The evaluation device 10 according to the fifth aspect of this disclosure is an evaluation device according to any of the first to fourth aspects, wherein the flood condition setting unit 70 calculates the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions using a different probability distribution for each flood condition. By using a different probability distribution for each flood condition in this way, the uncertainty of the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions can be taken into more appropriate consideration, and the evaluation accuracy can be improved.

[0049] The evaluation device 10 according to the sixth aspect of this disclosure is an evaluation device according to any of the first to fifth aspects, wherein multiple rooms R are provided, the overflow condition setting unit 70 sets the amount of water flow per unit time between adjacent rooms R based on a probability distribution, the water level calculation unit 74 calculates the water level for each room R, and the determination unit 76 determines whether the equipment M is submerged in water for each room R. According to this disclosure, the impact on equipment M installed in each of the multiple rooms R can be appropriately evaluated.

[0050] The evaluation device 10 according to the seventh aspect of this disclosure is an evaluation device according to any of the first to sixth aspects, wherein room R is a room provided in a nuclear power plant. According to this disclosure, the effect of flooding on equipment M in a nuclear power plant can be appropriately evaluated.

[0051] The evaluation method according to the eighth aspect of this disclosure includes the steps of: setting parameter values ​​for flood conditions, which include the amount of flooding per unit time from flood source T and the amount of water discharged per unit time from room R into which water from flood source T flows, based on a probability distribution; setting the flood time, which is the time from when the flooding from flood source T starts until it stops; calculating the water level in room R based on the parameter values ​​for flood conditions and the flood time; and determining whether the equipment M installed in room R is submerged based on the calculated water level. According to this disclosure, by setting the parameter value for flood time using a probability distribution, the impact of flooding on equipment can be appropriately evaluated, taking uncertainty into account.

[0052] A program according to the ninth aspect of this disclosure causes a computer to perform the following steps: setting parameter values ​​for flood conditions, including the amount of flooding per unit time from flood source T and the amount of water discharged per unit time from room R into which water from flood source T flows, based on a probability distribution; setting the flood time, which is the time from when the flooding from flood source T starts until it stops; calculating the water level in room R based on the parameter values ​​for flood conditions and the flood time; and determining whether the equipment M installed in room R will be submerged based on the calculated water level. According to this disclosure, by setting the parameter value for flood time using a probability distribution, the impact of flooding on equipment can be appropriately evaluated, taking uncertainty into account.

[0053] Although embodiments of the present disclosure have been described above, the embodiments are not limited to those described herein. Furthermore, the aforementioned components include those that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art, those that are substantially the same, and those that fall within the so-called equivalent range. Moreover, the aforementioned components can be combined as appropriate. Furthermore, various omissions, substitutions, or modifications of the components can be made without departing from the gist of the embodiments described above. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0054] 10 Evaluation device 70 Flood Condition Setting Section 72 Flood Time Setting Section 74 Water level calculation section 76 Judgment section 78 Evaluation Department 80 Output control unit Room R T Overflow source

Claims

1. An overflow condition setting unit sets parameter values ​​for overflow conditions, including the amount of overflow per unit time from an overflow source and the amount of water discharged per unit time from a room into which water from the overflow source flows, based on a probability distribution. An overflow time setting unit sets the overflow time, which is the time from when the overflow from the overflow source starts until it stops. A water level calculation unit calculates the water level in the room based on the parameter values ​​of the flooding conditions and the flooding time, A determination unit that determines whether the equipment installed in the room is submerged based on the calculated water level, including, Evaluation device.

2. The flood condition setting unit sets multiple parameter values ​​for the same flood condition, The water level calculation unit calculates the water level for each parameter value of the flooding condition, The evaluation device according to claim 1, wherein the determination unit determines whether the equipment is submerged for each parameter value of the flooding condition.

3. The flood time setting unit sets a plurality of flood times, The water level calculation unit calculates the water level for each overflow time, The evaluation device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the determination unit determines whether the equipment is submerged for each of the flooding conditions.

4. The flood time setting unit sets a weighting coefficient for each flood time, such that the higher the probability of that flood time occurring, the greater the weight it carries. The evaluation device according to claim 3, further comprising an evaluation unit that calculates the possibility of the equipment being submerged based on the determination result of whether the equipment is submerged for each flood time and a weighting coefficient for each flood time.

5. The evaluation device according to claim 1 or claim 2, wherein the flood condition setting unit calculates the parameter values ​​of the flood conditions using a different probability distribution for each flood condition.

6. Multiple such rooms are provided, The aforementioned flood condition setting unit sets the amount of water flowing between adjacent rooms per unit time based on a probability distribution. The water level calculation unit calculates the water level for each room, The evaluation apparatus according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the determination unit determines whether the equipment is submerged in water for each room.

7. The evaluation apparatus according to claim 1 or claim 2, wherein the aforementioned room is a room provided in a nuclear power plant.

8. An evaluation method performed by an evaluation device, The steps include setting parameter values ​​for flood conditions, including the amount of flooding per unit time from the flood source and the amount of water discharged per unit time from the room into which the water from the flood source flows, based on a probability distribution; The steps include setting the flood time, which is the time from when the flooding from the flood source begins until it stops, A step of calculating the water level in the room based on the parameter values ​​of the flooding conditions and the flooding time, A step of determining whether the equipment installed in the room is submerged based on the calculated water level, including, Evaluation method.

9. The steps include setting parameter values ​​for flood conditions, including the amount of flooding per unit time from the flood source and the amount of water discharged per unit time from the room into which the water from the flood source flows, based on a probability distribution; The steps include setting the flood time, which is the time from when the flooding from the flood source begins until it stops, A step of calculating the water level in the room based on the parameter values ​​of the flooding conditions and the flooding time, A step of determining whether the equipment installed in the room is submerged based on the calculated water level, Make the computer execute it. program.

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