Automated information system for conducting scenario analysis based on expert surveys and decision support

Abstract

The proposed invention relates to the field of data processing and digital computing, specifically designed for processing statistical data, including aggregation and analysis of expert assessments, as well as for collecting, recording and structuring source information and can be used in government and corporate centers for strategic and situational analysis, research institutes, analytical and expert centers, As well as in the analysis and forecasting of socio-economic, political, industrial, natural-climatic, and other processes requiring the processing of arrays of expert and statistical data. The technical result consists of increased performance of expert data processing due to the asynchronous execution of computational procedures, reduced blocking of user operations, and a reduction in the number of access conflicts during parallel data processing. An automated information system for conducting scenario analyses based on expert surveys and decision support is proposed, including user devices connected by a data transmission network, a database and a server containing a remote user access module, a module for distinguishing user roles and access rights, a module for processing expert assessments and a module for asynchronous execution of computing procedures, Moreover, the module for processing expert assessments is designed with the ability to aggregate expert assessments, process the results of expert surveys, and generate and perform computational comparisons of alternative scenarios for the development of the situation; a module for distinguishing roles and user access rights, designed with the ability to dynamically generate a set of available operations and access rights for each user based on the assigned role and the context of the scenario analysis operations being performed, as well as restrict access to the functions of generating, modifying and comparing scenarios; The module for asynchronous execution of computational procedures is designed with the ability to perform calculations of probabilistic characteristics of scenarios in the background without blocking user operations.