Estimation device, estimation method, and program

Abstract

An estimation device (1) for estimating the communication status of a network comprises: a first acquisition unit (13) that acquires population information within a target range for which the communication status is to be estimated; a second acquisition unit (14) that acquires network information from each network device; an analysis unit (15) that extracts and analyzes control information included in the network information; and an estimation unit (16) that estimates the communication status on the basis of the control information and the population information.

Description

Estimation apparatus, estimation method, and program

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an estimation apparatus, an estimation method, and a program for estimating a communication state of a network.

[0002] When terminal connections are concentrated on a single base station, such as when an event occurs, the allocation of resources such as IP and radio bandwidth becomes strained. For this reason, communication traffic between terminals and base stations increases, congestion occurs at the base station, and end-to-end (E2E) communication quality decreases.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a technology that acquires traffic information via a higher-level monitoring device, and adjusts resources to be used based on a predicted value of total traffic volume and available resource capacity to avoid congestion.

[0004] Japanese Patent No. 7095705

[0005] However, when traffic fluctuation occurs due to a decrease in communication quality at a single base station connected to a network, the fluctuation rate of this traffic fluctuation relative to the total traffic volume of the entire network is small. For this reason, the method disclosed in the aforementioned Patent Document 1 cannot determine the communication state occurring at terminals connected to a base station with high accuracy.

[0006] The present disclosure has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object thereof is to provide an estimation apparatus, an estimation method, and a program capable of estimating a communication state of a network with high accuracy.

[0007] An estimation apparatus according to an aspect of the present disclosure is an estimation apparatus that estimates a communication state of a network, and includes: a first acquisition unit that acquires population information within a target range that is an estimation target of the communication state; a second acquisition unit that acquires network information from each network device; an analysis unit that extracts and analyzes control information included in the network information; and an estimation unit that estimates the communication state based on the control information and the population information.

[0008] One aspect of the present disclosure is an estimation method for estimating the communication state of a network, comprising: acquiring population information within a target range to be estimated; acquiring network information from each network device; extracting and analyzing control information contained in the network information; and estimating the communication state based on the control information and the population information.

[0009] One aspect of this disclosure is a program for causing a computer to function as the estimation device described above.

[0010] According to this disclosure, it will be possible to estimate the communication state of a network with high accuracy.

[0011] Figure 1 is an explanatory diagram showing a network with multiple base stations and a collector connected to the network. Figure 2A is a block diagram showing the configuration of the estimation device according to the embodiment. Figure 2B is a block diagram showing another configuration of the estimation device according to the embodiment. Figure 3 is an explanatory diagram showing a network in a fixed network and a collector connected to the network. Figure 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a network including a network termination device and a collector connected to the network. Figure 5 is a graph showing the time change of the TCP communication terminal count and ACK flag metrics. Figure 6 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure by the estimation device according to the embodiment. Figure 7 is a block diagram showing the hardware configuration of this embodiment.

[0012] The embodiments will be described below with reference to the drawings. Figure 1 is an explanatory diagram showing a network comprising a plurality of base stations 52 and relay nodes 51. The network is connected to a plurality of relay nodes 51 and a plurality of base stations 52, which are connected in a hierarchical manner. Each lower-level relay node 51 is connected to a base station 52. A collector 2 is connected to an upper-level relay node 51A. Note that the collector 2 may be connected to other relay nodes 51. Relay node 51A is connected to the upper-level network 50.

[0013] Base station 52 relays communications from mobile terminals, fixed terminals, satellite communications, and communications with Wi-Fi access points.

[0014] Collector 2 collects packet information from the communication information of each terminal 53. The packet information includes control information. Control information is necessary for measuring, judging, monitoring, and controlling the communication state of the network. The control information includes TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) flags such as the ACK flag indicating acknowledgment, the RST flag indicating forced disconnection, the SYN flag indicating connection request, the URG flag indicating emergency processing, and the FIN flag indicating termination of connection. In this embodiment, the communication state of the network is estimated based on the correlation between population information using the base station 52 and the control information described above. As a communication state, for example, it is estimated whether or not the network communication quality has deteriorated.

[0015] Figure 2A is a block diagram showing the configuration of the estimation device 1 according to the embodiment. As shown in Figure 2A, the estimation device 1 includes a population information DB 11, a flow information DB 12, a first acquisition unit 13, a second acquisition unit 14, an analysis unit 15, an estimation unit 16, and a storage unit 17. "DB" refers to a database.

[0016] The population information DB 11 stores population information for the area under the jurisdiction of each base station 52 (the area for which communication status is estimated). Population information can be obtained from the number of connected terminals (mobile terminals, fixed terminals) in the target area R1 of the base station 52 (see Figure 1), and from GPS information obtained from terminals (for example, mobile terminals). Mobile terminals are, for example, smartphones. Population information may also be obtained from population density information within the target area provided by administrative agencies. Population information may also be obtained from GPS information obtained from vehicles traveling in the target area R1, and from security gate passage information. Security gate passage information refers to, for example, the number of people who passed through a railway ticket gate.

[0017] Population information may be defined as the number of unique IP addresses performing TCP communication. Alternatively, the target range may be defined as the range connected to a specific gateway. In other words, the first acquisition unit 13 acquires population information within the target range based on at least one of the following: population density information, number of connected terminals, terminal GPS information, and security gate passage information.

[0018] The population information DB 11 may cover the area under the jurisdiction of a relay node in the fixed network or the area under the jurisdiction of a network termination device, and may store population information within these areas. That is, in addition to the area under the jurisdiction of the base station 52 as described above, the area for estimating the communication status may also be the area under the jurisdiction of a relay node 51 connected to a fixed terminal 54 connected to a relay node 51, as shown in Figure 3, and population information within this area R2 may be stored. Alternatively, as shown in Figure 4, the entire area of ​​terminals connected below the network termination device 60 may be covered, and population information within this area may be stored.

[0019] The flow information DB12 is connected to the collector 2. The flow information DB12 stores control information for packets obtained from the collector 2. As mentioned above, the control information stored includes TCP flags such as the ACK flag, RST flag, SYN flag, URG flag, and FIN flag, as well as IP addresses.

[0020] The first acquisition unit 13 refers to the population information DB 11 and acquires population information within the target range for which the communication status is to be estimated. The first acquisition unit 13 outputs the acquired population information to the estimation unit 16.

[0021] The second acquisition unit 14 acquires network information from the flow information DB 12. That is, the second acquisition unit 14 acquires network information from each network device. The second acquisition unit 14 outputs the acquired network information to the analysis unit 15.

[0022] The analysis unit 15 extracts control information contained in the network information. As mentioned above, the control information includes TCP flags such as the ACK flag, RST flag, SYN flag, URG flag, and FIN flag. The analysis unit 15 calculates metrics for the ACK flag, for example. In other words, the analysis unit 15 analyzes the control information contained in the network information. The analysis unit 15 outputs the analysis results of the control information to the estimation unit 16.

[0023] The estimation unit 16 estimates the network state based on the analysis results of population information and control information. "Estimating the network state" includes detection, prediction, and forecasting of network state. Examples of network state include network congestion, connection failure, timeout, packet jamming, packet loss, and equipment failure. Here, the estimation unit 16 estimates whether or not the network communication quality has deteriorated. That is, the estimation unit 16 estimates the communication state based on control information and population information.

[0024] Through diligent research by the inventors, it was discovered that in E2E TCP communication, the ratio of TCP flag metrics to the number of TCP communication terminals changes between normal communication and degraded communication quality. For example, in E2E TCP communication, during normal communication, the ACK flag metrics have a relationship where the ratio to the number of TCP communication terminals is above a predetermined threshold. On the other hand, when communication quality deteriorates, the ACK flag metrics decrease, and the ratio of ACK flags to population information falls below a predetermined threshold. This embodiment utilizes this characteristic to estimate whether or not the network communication quality has deteriorated.

[0025] The process for determining a decline in quality status is described below. The estimation unit 16 calculates the ratio of population information (e.g., number of TCP communication terminals) to control information (ACK flag) for each base station at each time point. The estimation unit 16 estimates that the network is in a state of degraded communication quality if the ratio of the number of terminals to the ACK flag is below a predetermined threshold.

[0026] The explanation will be given with reference to the graph shown in Figure 5. Figure 5 is a graph showing the time change of the TCP communication terminal number and the ACK flag metric. In Figure 5, curve s1 shows the TCP communication terminal number, and curve s2 shows the ACK flag metric. As shown in Figure 5, at time t1, curve s2 (ACK flag) is lower than curve s1 (TCP communication terminal number), and the ratio is below a predetermined threshold. Therefore, it is estimated that the communication quality has deteriorated at time t1. The estimation unit 16 outputs the estimation result to the storage unit 17.

[0027] In addition to the ACK flag, the RST, SYN, URG, and FIN flags mentioned above can also be used as TCP flags. When using flags other than the ACK flag, such as the RST, SYN, URG, and FIN flags, a threshold indicating the relationship with the number of TCP communication terminals is set according to each metric. Based on the relationship between the set threshold and the number of TCP communication terminals, a deterioration in communication quality can be determined. The estimation unit 16 calculates the ratio of control information to population information, and estimates that the network communication quality has deteriorated if the ratio deviates from a predetermined value by a certain amount or more.

[0028] Specifically, the control information acquired by the second acquisition unit 14 includes the ACK flag, the population information includes the number of connected terminals (e.g., mobile terminals), and the estimation unit 16 estimates that the communication quality has deteriorated when the ratio of the ACK flag metric to the number of connected terminals falls below a predetermined threshold.

[0029] When an event occurs at a base station and communication quality deteriorates, the total number of packet flows (total traffic) does not fluctuate significantly, so the communication state is perceived as normal. However, if a control signal (e.g., the TCP flag) is detected at the same time, the RST flag, SYN flag, etc., are raised, indicating that the E2E communication quality is degraded. At this time, the correlation between the number of TCP communication terminals and the ACK flag changes. In this embodiment, by detecting these changes and determining the deterioration of communication quality, it is possible to avoid overlooking signs of deterioration in communication quality at the base station level.

[0030] The storage unit 17 stores the communication status of each base station 52 estimated by the estimation unit 16. The storage unit 17 is connected to the NW monitoring system 3, and when an output request is received from the NW monitoring system 3, it outputs data indicating the communication status of each base station 52 to the NW monitoring system 3. In this embodiment, as shown in Figure 2A, the estimation device 1 has been described as having a configuration that includes a population information DB 11 and a flow information DB 12, but as shown in Figure 2B, the population information DB 11 and the flow information DB 12 may be installed outside the estimation device 1A.

[0031] Next, referring to the flowchart shown in Figure 6, the procedure for estimating network communication quality degradation using the estimation device according to this embodiment will be described.

[0032] First, in step S11 of Figure 6, the first acquisition unit 13 acquires population information from the population information DB 11.

[0033] In step S12, the second acquisition unit 14 acquires network information from the flow information DB 12.

[0034] In step S13, the analysis unit 15 obtains control information from the network information. The control information is, for example, the ACK flag.

[0035] In step S14, the analysis unit 15 calculates feature quantities based on population information and control information. As a feature quantity, for example, it calculates the ratio of the ACK flag metric to the number of TCP communication terminals as described above.

[0036] In step S15, the estimation unit 16 detects the network communication state based on the above-mentioned feature quantities. It determines whether the ratio calculated in step S14 is below a predetermined threshold. If it is below the predetermined threshold (S15; YES), the process proceeds to step S16; otherwise (S15; NO), the process returns to step S11. For example, at time t1 in the graph shown in Figure 3, if the metric of the ACK flag relative to the number of TCP communication terminals is below a predetermined threshold, the determination is YES.

[0037] In step S16, the estimation unit 16 detects a deterioration in network quality. This estimation result is stored in the storage unit 17. The storage unit 17 outputs the estimation result information to the network monitoring system 3 in response to a request from the network monitoring system 3.

[0038] As described above, the estimation device according to the embodiment is an estimation device 1 for estimating the communication state of a network, and comprises a first acquisition unit 13 that acquires population information within a target range to be estimated for the communication state, a second acquisition unit 14 that acquires network information from each network device, an analysis unit 15 that extracts and analyzes control information contained in the network information, and an estimation unit 16 that estimates the communication state based on the control information and population information.

[0039] In this embodiment, network information is obtained from the flow information acquired by collector 2, and control information such as the ACK flag is further obtained from the packets contained in the network information. The network state is estimated from the correlation between the control information and population information such as the number of TCP communication terminals. For example, the deterioration of communication quality occurring in the network is determined. Therefore, it becomes possible to estimate the communication state occurring at communication terminals with high accuracy.

[0040] As shown in Figure 7, the estimation device 1 of this embodiment described above can be a general-purpose computer system comprising, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit, processor) 901, memory 902, storage 903 (HDD: Hard Disk Drive, SSD: Solid State Drive), communication device 904, input device 905, and output device 906. The memory 902 and storage 903 are storage devices. In this computer system, each function of the estimation device 1 is realized when the CPU 901 executes a predetermined program loaded onto the memory 902.

[0041] The estimation device 1 may be implemented on a single computer, or on multiple computers. Furthermore, the estimation device 1 may be a virtual machine implemented on a computer.

[0042] The program for the estimation device 1 can be stored on a computer-readable recording medium such as an HDD, SSD, USB (Universal Serial Bus) memory, CD (Compact Disc), or DVD (Digital Versatile Disc), or it can be distributed via a network. A computer-readable recording medium is, for example, a non-transitory recording medium.

[0043] This disclosure is not limited to the embodiments described above, and numerous modifications are possible within the scope of its essence.

[0044] 1, 1A Estimation Device 2 Collector 3 NW Monitoring System 13 First Acquisition Unit 14 Second Acquisition Unit 15 Analysis Unit 16 Estimation Unit 17 Storage Unit 50 Upper Network 51, 51A Relay Node 52 Base Station 53 Terminal Unit 54 Fixed Terminal 60 Network Termination Device

Claims

1. An estimation device for estimating the communication state of a network, comprising: a first acquisition unit that acquires population information within a target range to be estimated; a second acquisition unit that acquires network information from each network device; an analysis unit that extracts and analyzes control information contained in the network information; and an estimation unit that estimates the communication state based on the control information and the population information.

2. The estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the estimation unit calculates the ratio of the control information to the population information, and estimates that the communication quality of the network has deteriorated if the ratio deviates from a predetermined value by a certain value or more.

3. The estimation device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the first acquisition unit acquires the population information based on at least one of the following within the target range: population density information, number of connected terminals, GPS information of terminals, and security gate passage information.

4. The estimation device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the control information includes a TCP flag.

5. The estimation device according to claim 4, wherein the TCP flag includes one of the ACK flag, RST flag, SYN flag, URG flag, and FIN flag.

6. The estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the control information includes an ACK flag, the population information includes the number of connected terminals, and the estimation unit estimates that the communication quality has deteriorated when the ratio of the ACK flag metric to the number of connected terminals falls below a predetermined threshold.

7. An estimation method for estimating the communication state of a network, comprising: acquiring population information within a target range to be estimated; acquiring network information from each network device; extracting and analyzing control information contained in the network information; and estimating the communication state based on the control information and the population information.

8. A program for estimating the communication state of a network, comprising: a first acquisition unit that acquires population information within a target range for which the communication state is to be estimated; a second acquisition unit that acquires network information from each network device; an analysis unit that extracts and analyzes control information contained in the network information; and an estimation unit that estimates the communication state based on the control information and the population information, thereby causing the computer to function as such.

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