Heat source system and control method of the same

Abstract

The　heat　source　system　includes:　a　load　prediction　unit　(22)　configured　to　predict　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period　by　using　past　demand　load　data,　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data;　an　active　combination　setting　unit　(23)　configured　to　set　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　on　a　predetermined　period　basis　by　using　a　property　of　each　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　the　demand　load　predicted　by　the　load　prediction　unit,　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance　above　a　predetermined　value;　a　priority　setting　unit　(24)　configured　to　set　a　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination;　and　a　control　unit　(25)　configured　to　perform　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　by　using　the　set　priority.

Description

HEAT SOURCE SYSTEM AND CONTROL METHOD OF THE SAME

[0001] The　present　disclosure　relates　to　a　heat　source　system　and　a　control　method　of　the　same.

[0002] Heat　source　systems　including　a　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　such　as　turbo　refrigerating　machines　are　conventionally　known　as　those　implementing　district　heating　and　cooling,　heating　and　cooling　of　factories　or　the　like,　or　the　like.　　Such　heat　source　systems　control　the　number　of　active　units　of　heat　source　machines　in　accordance　with　a　demand　load　required　by　devices　to　which　an　amount　of　heat　is　supplied　(hereafter,　referred　to　as　“external　load”).　　In　controlling　the　number　of　active　units,　it　is　demanded　to　obtain　an　energy　saving　effect　by　operating　active　heat　source　machines　at　high　efficiency.

[0003] For　example,　Patent　Literatures　1　and　2　disclose　that　load　rate　ranges　in　which　the　coefficient　of　performance　(COP)　of　each　heat　source　machine　is　above　a　predetermined　value　are　determined,　respectively,　and　respective　heat　source　machines　are　controlled　so　that　the　determined　load　rate　ranges　are　satisfied.

[0004] Japanese　Patent　No.　5404333Japanese　Patent　No.　5787792

[0005] In　a　case　of　a　heat　source　system　including　heat　source　machines　having　different　capacities,　it　may　be　possible　to　improve　the　energy　saving　effect　by　changing　the　combination　of　heat　source　machines　to　be　operated　in　accordance　with　a　demand　load　(hereafter,　referred　to　as　“active　heat　source　machine　combination”).　　In　the　conventional　method,　however,　activation　and　suspension　of　each　heat　source　machine　are　controlled　based　in　the　priority　thereof　set　in　advance,　and　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　is　not　dynamically　changed　in　accordance　with　a　demand　load.

[0006] The　present　disclosure　has　been　made　in　view　of　such　circumstances　and　intends　to　provide　a　heat　source　system　and　a　control　method　of　the　same　that　can　improve　the　energy　saving　effect.

[0007] The　heat　source　system　according　to　one　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure　is　a　heat　source　system　including　a　plurality　of　heat　source　machines,　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　including　at　least　one　heat　source　machine　having　a　different　capacity,　and　the　heat　source　system　includes:　a　load　prediction　unit　configured　to　predict　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period　by　using　past　demand　load　data,　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data;　an　active　combination　setting　unit　configured　to　set　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　on　a　predetermined　period　basis　by　using　a　property　of　each　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　the　demand　load　predicted　by　the　load　prediction　unit,　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance　that　is　above　a　predetermined　value;　a　priority　setting　unit　configured　to　set　a　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination;　and　a　control　unit　(a　controller)　configured　to　perform　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　by　using　the　set　priority.

[0008] The　control　method　of　a　heat　source　system　according　to　one　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure　is　a　control　method　of　a　heat　source　system　including　a　plurality　of　heat　source　machines,　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　including　at　least　one　heat　source　machine　having　a　different　capacity,　and　the　control　method　is　performed　by　a　computer　and　includes:　predicting　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period　by　using　past　demand　load　data,　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data;　setting　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　on　a　predetermined　period　basis　by　using　a　property　of　each　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　the　demand　load　predicted　in　the　predicting,　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance　that　is　above　a　predetermined　value;　setting　a　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination;　and　performing　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　by　using　the　set　priority.

[0009] The　program　according　to　one　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure　causes　a　computer　to　perform　the　control　method　of　the　heat　source　system　described　above.

[0010] According　to　the　heat　source　system　and　the　control　method　of　the　same　of　the　present　disclosure,　the　energy　saving　effect　can　be　improved.

[0011] Fig.　1　is　a　diagram　schematically　illustrating　a　configuration　of　a　heat　source　system　according　to　a　first　embodiment　of　the　present　disclosure.Fig.　2　is　a　diagram　schematically　illustrating　a　configuration　of　a　control　system　of　the　heat　source　system　illustrated　in　Fig.　1.Fig.　3　is　a　function　configuration　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　functions　of　a　system　control　device　according　to　the　first　embodiment　of　the　present　disclosure.Fig.　4　is　a　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　a　predicted　demand　load　predicted　by　a　load　prediction　unit　according　to　the　first　embodiment　of　the　present　disclosure.Fig.　5　is　a　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　for　the　predicted　demand　load　illustrated　in　Fig.　4.Fig.　6　is　a　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　for　an　expected　demand　load.Fig.　7　is　a　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　for　an　actual　demand　load.Fig.　8　is　a　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　an　increasing-phase　threshold　and　a　decreasing-phase　threshold　before　correction.Fig.　9　is　a　function　configuration　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　functions　of　a　system　control　device　according　to　a　third　embodiment　of　the　present　disclosure.Fig.　10　is　a　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　an　increasing-phase　threshold　and　a　decreasing-phase　threshold　after　corrected.First Embodiment

[0012] A　heat　source　system　and　a　control　method　of　the　same　according　to　the　first　embodiment　of　the　present　disclosure　will　be　described　below　with　reference　to　the　drawings. Fig.　1　is　a　diagram　schematically　illustrating　a　configuration　of　the　heat　source　system　according　to　the　first　embodiment　of　the　present　disclosure.　　A　heat　source　system　1　heats　or　cools　a　heat　transfer　medium　(cold　water)　supplied　to　an　external　load　2,　for　example.　　The　external　load　2　is　a　device　to　which　an　amount　of　heat　is　supplied　and　may　be　an　air　conditioner,　a　water　heater,　a　factory　facility,　or　the　like　as　an　example.

[0013] The　heat　source　system　1　includes　a　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　10　(10a,　10b,　10c).　　In　the　following,　when　the　heat　source　machines　are　not　distinguished　from　each　other,　a　reference　“10”　is　simply　provided　thereto,　and　when　the　heat　source　machines　are　distinguished　from　each　other,　references　“10a”,　“10b”,　or　the　like　are　provided　thereto.　　Further,　the　same　applies　to　other　configurations. The　heat　source　machines　10a,　10b,　10c　are　connected　to　the　external　load　2　in　parallel.　　Although　a　case　where　three　heat　source　machines　10a,　10b,　10c　are　installed　is　illustrated　as　an　example　in　Fig.　1,　any　number　of　installed　heat　source　machines　10　may　be　determined. At　least　one　heat　source　machine　having　a　different　capacity　from　the　rest　thereof　is　included　in　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　10.　　In　other　words,　heat　source　machines　having　different　capacities　are　mixed　in　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　10.　　Different　types　of　heat　source　machines　may　be　included　in　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　10.　　The　heat　source　machine　10　may　be,　for　example,　a　turbo　refrigerating　machine,　an　absorption　refrigerating　machine,　or　the　like.

[0014] Primary　cold / hot　water　pumps　that　pump　a　heat　transfer　medium　(hereafter,　simply　referred　to　as　“pump(s)”)　3　(3a,　3b,　3c)　are　installed　respectively　upstream　of　the　heat　source　machines　10a,　10b,　10c　when　viewed　along　the　heat　transfer　medium　flow.　　The　heat　transfer　medium　from　a　return　header　4　is　transferred　to　the　heat　source　machines　10a,　10b,　10c　by　the　pumps　3a,　3b,　3c,　respectively.　　Each　of　the　pumps　3a,　3b,　3c　may　be　a　pump　of　a　fixed　flow　rate　or　a　pump　of　a　variable　flow　rate.　　A　pump(s)　of　a　fixed　flow　rate　and　a　pump(s)　of　a　variable　flow　rate　may　be　mixed　in　the　plurality　of　pumps　3.

[0015] The　heat　transfer　medium　cooled　or　heated　by　respective　heat　source　machines　10a,　10b,　10c　is　collected　to　a　supply　header　5.　　The　heat　transfer　medium　collected　to　the　supply　header　5　is　supplied　to　the　external　load　2.　　The　heat　transfer　medium　supplied　to　an　air　conditioner　or　the　like　in　the　external　load　2　and　heated　or　cooled　therein　is　transfer　to　the　return　header　4.　　The　heat　transfer　medium　is　branched　in　the　return　header　4　and　transfer　again　to　respective　heat　source　machines　10a,　10b,　10c.

[0016] A　bypass　pipe　6　is　provided　between　the　supply　header　5　and　the　return　header　4.　　A　bypass　valve　7　for　adjusting　the　bypass　flow　rate　is　provided　to　the　bypass　pipe　6. A　temperature　sensor　11　for　measuring　a　feed　water　temperature　Ts,　which　is　the　temperature　of　the　heat　transfer　medium　delivered　to　the　external　load　2,　and　a　flow　rate　sensor　12　for　measuring　a　flow　rate　Ft　of　the　heat　transfer　medium　are　provided　downstream　in　the　heat　transfer　medium　flow　of　the　supply　header　5.

[0017] A　temperature　sensor　13　for　measuring　a　reflux　temperature　Tr,　which　is　the　temperature　of　the　heat　transfer　medium　delivered　from　the　external　load　2,　is　provided　upstream　in　the　coolant　flow　of　the　return　header　4.　　Measurements　from　these　temperature　sensors　11　and　13　and　the　flow　rate　sensor　12　are　output　to　a　system　control　device　20. Measurements　from　a　temperature　sensor　14　for　measuring　an　outside　air　temperature　TE　and　a　temperature　sensor　15　for　measuring　an　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　RH　are　output　to　the　system　control　device　20.

[0018] Fig.　2　is　a　diagram　schematically　illustrating　a　configuration　of　a　control　system　of　the　heat　source　system　1　illustrated　in　Fig.　1.　　As　illustrated　in　Fig.　2,　heat　source　machine　control　devices　8a,　8b,　8c　that　are　control　devices　of　the　heat　source　machines　10a,　10b,　10c,　respectively,　are　connected　to　the　system　control　device　20　via　a　communication　medium　9　and　configured　to　perform　bidirectional　communication　therebetween.

[0019] The　system　control　device　20　is　a　control　device　configured　to　control　the　overall　heat　source　system　and　controls　the　heat　source　system　1　so　that　the　feed　water　temperature　Ts　becomes　a　set　temperature　determined　by　a　demand　from　the　external　load　2.　　Specifically,　the　system　control　device　20　performs　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　described　later　and　the　demand　load　of　the　external　load　2.　　Herein,　the　demand　load　includes　a　demand　amount　of　heat　and　a　demand　flow　rate,　and　the　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　is　performed　so　as　to　satisfy　at　least　one　of　the　demand　amount　of　heat　and　the　demand　flow　rate.　　Note　that　details　of　the　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　will　be　described　later.

[0020] The　system　control　device　20　may　perform　outlet　temperature　control　for　the　heat　source　machines　10a,　10b,　10c,　load　distribution　control　to　allocate　loads　to　active　heat　source　machines,　flow　rate　control　for　the　pumps　3a,　3b,　3c,　valve　opening　control　for　the　bypass　valve　7　based　on　a　pressure　difference　between　the　supply　header　5　and　the　return　header　4,　or　the　like.

[0021] The　system　control　device　20　and　the　heat　source　machine　control　devices　8a,　8b,　8c　represent,　for　example,　a　computer　and　include　a　central　processing　unit　(CPU),　a　primary　storage　device　such　as　a　random　access　memory　(RAM),　a　read　only　memory　(ROM),　an　auxiliary　storage　device,　a　communication　device　configured　to　transfer　information　via　communication　with　external　devices,　or　the　like. The　auxiliary　storage　device　is　a　computer　readable　storage　medium　and　is,　for　example,　a　magnetic　disk,　a　magneto-optical　disk,　a　CD-ROM,　a　DVD-ROM,　a　semiconductor　memory,　or　the　like.　　Various　programs　are　stored　in　such　an　auxiliary　storage　device,　and　the　CPU　loads　a　program　into　the　RAM　from　the　auxiliary　storage　device　and　executes　the　program　to　implement　various　functions　described　later.

[0022] Fig.　3　is　a　function　configuration　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　functions　of　the　system　control　device　20.　　As　illustrated　in　Fig.　3,　the　system　control　device　20　includes,　for　example,　a　data　storage　unit　21,　a　load　prediction　unit　22,　an　active　combination　setting　unit　23,　a　priority　setting　unit　24,　a　control　unit　(a　controller)　25,　a　storage　unit　26,　and　the　like.

[0023] The　data　storage　unit　21　stores　various　data　used　in　the　load　prediction　unit　22,　the　active　combination　setting　unit　23,　and　the　like.　　The　data　storage　unit　21　stores,　for　example,　past　demand　load　data,　outside　air　temperature　data　output　from　the　temperature　sensor　14,　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data　output　from　the　temperature　sensor　15,　and　the　like. The　past　demand　load　data　may　be,　for　example,　demand　load　data　for　a　past　predetermined　period. The　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data　and　the　outside　air　temperature　data　may　be　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data　[°C]　in　a　past　predetermined　period,　outside　air　temperature　data　[°C]　in　a　past　predetermined　period,　and　the　like.

[0024] The　past　demand　load　data,　the　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data,　and　the　outside　air　temperature　data　are　associated　with　date　and　time.　　These　data　are　data　sequentially　accumulated　and　updated.　　The　data　acquisition　interval　can　be　set　to　any　interval　(for　example,　one　hour　or　the　like).　　The　past　predetermined　period　can　be　set　to　any　period　(for　example,　365　days　or　the　like).

[0025] The　data　storage　unit　21　may　store　user　adjustment　information　or　the　like.　　The　user　adjustment　information　is,　for　example,　a　coefficient　for　adjusting　a　predicted　load.　　For　example,　the　embodiment　may　be　configured　such　that,　when　the　demand　load　is　likely　to　fluctuate　compared　to　ordinary　times,　such　as　on　a　day　an　event　is　held,　the　user　can　set　the　date　and　time　thereof　and　an　adjustment　value　to　customize　the　predicted　load.

[0026] The　data　storage　unit　21　may　store　specification　data　on　the　heat　source　machine　10. The　specification　data　on　the　heat　source　machine　10　may　be,　a　maximum　capacity　[kW],　a　minimum　capacity　[kW],　a　maximum　primary　cold / hot　water　flow　rate　[m3 / h],　a　minimum　primary　cold / hot　water　flow　rate　[m3 / h],　a　maximum　cooling　water　flow　rate　[m3 / h],　a　minimum　cooling　water　flow　rate　[m3 / h],　consumption　power　[kW]　for　a　load　rate　of　a　heat　source　machine　(the　maximum　load　rate　range　of　0%　to　100%),　or　the　like.　　The　specification　data　on　heat　source　machines　are　stored　for　respective　heat　source　machines　of　the　heat　source　system　1.　　The　specification　data　on　the　heat　source　machines　are　data　updated　when　a　change　occurs　therein.

[0027] The　data　storage　unit　21　may　store　specification　data　on　auxiliary　equipment. The　auxiliary　equipment　may　be　a　pump　(primary　cold / hot　water　pump)　3,　cooling　water　pumps　(not　illustrated)　that　supply　cooling　water　to　respective　heat　source　machines　10,　or　the　like.　　The　specification　data　on　auxiliary　equipment　may　be,　for　example,　a　drive　method　(fixed　flow　rate　or　variable　fixed　rate),　rated　consumption　power　[kW],　or　the　like.　　The　specification　data　on　auxiliary　equipment　is　stored　for　each　pump　of　the　heat　source　system　1.　　The　specification　data　on　auxiliary　equipment　is　data　updated　when　a　change　occurs　therein.

[0028] The　data　storage　unit　21　may　store　past　operation　data.　　For　example,　the　past　operation　data　may　be　an　operation　cumulative　time　of　each　heat　source　machine,　failure　information　on　each　heat　source　machine,　regular　maintenance　and　inspection　information　on　each　heat　source　machine,　or　the　like.

[0029] The　load　prediction　unit　22　predicts　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period　by　using　various　data　stored　in　the　data　storage　unit　21.　　For　example,　the　load　prediction　unit　22　uses　at　least　the　past　demand　load　data,　the　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　the　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data　to　perform　statistical　processing　and　thereby　predicts　a　demand　load　required　in　a　prediction　period　at　predetermined　time　intervals.　　The　prediction　period　can　be　set　to　any　period　(such　as,　for　example,　one　week　from　the　next　day　of　the　prediction　day).　　The　predetermined　time　interval　can　be　set　to　any　time　interval　(such　as,　for　example,　intervals　of　one　hour).　　The　prediction　can　be　repeatedly　performed　at　predetermined　prediction　intervals　(such　as,　for　example,　intervals　of　24　hours).

[0030] The　statistical　scheme　may　be,　for　example,　a　multiple-regression　model.　　In　a　case　of　the　multiple-regression　model,　as　an　explanatory　variable,　for　example,　at　least　one　of:　outside　air　temperatures　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperatures　on　the　prediction　day　and　in　a　past　predetermined　period　(for　example,　the　previous　day);　outside　air　temperatures　squared　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperatures　squared　on　the　prediction　day　and　in　a　past　predetermined　period　(for　example,　the　previous　day);　a　demand　heat　load　average　for　a　past　predetermined　period　(for　example,　the　past　two　weeks);　a　demand　heat　load　on　the　previous　day;　an　outside　air　temperature　average　and　an　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　average　in　the　past　predetermined　period　(for　example,　the　past　two　weeks);　the　day　of　week,　or　the　like　may　be　used.

[0031] For　the　statistical　scheme,　known　techniques　can　be　employed　as　appropriate　without　being　limited　to　the　multiple-regression　model　described　above.　　The　future　load　may　be　predicted　by　using　machine　learning.　　When　the　user　adjustment　information　is　stored　in　the　data　storage　unit　21,　the　load　prediction　unit　22　uses　the　user　adjustment　information　to　separately　adjust　the　demand　load.

[0032] The　active　combination　setting　unit　23　uses　the　specification　data　on　each　heat　source　machine　(properties　of　the　heat　source　machine)　and　a　demand　load　predicted　by　the　load　prediction　unit　22　(hereafter,　referred　to　as　“predicted　demand　load”)　to　set　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination,　that　is,　a　combination　of　active　heat　source　machines　having　a　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　above　a　predetermined　value　on　a　predetermined　period　basis.　　Specifically,　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　the　highest　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　is　set　on　a　predetermined　period　basis. The　active　combination　setting　unit　23　may　further　use　at　least　one　of　the　specification　data　on　auxiliary　equipment　and　the　past　operation　data　to　set　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination. For　example,　the　active　combination　setting　unit　23　sets　an　active　combination　of　the　heat　source　machines　at　one-hour　intervals.

[0033] Fig.　4　illustrates　an　example　of　a　predicted　demand　load　predicted　by　the　load　prediction　unit　22.　　Fig.　5　illustrates　an　example　of　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　for　a　predicted　demand　load.　　In　Fig.　4　and　Fig.　5,　the　horizontal　axis　represents　time,　and　the　vertical　axis　represents　the　demand　load.　　Fig.　5　illustrates　an　example　of　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　when　six　heat　source　machines　from　Unit　1　to　Unit　6　are　provided.　　In　Fig.　5,　the　capacities　of　Unit　1　to　Unit　6　are　as　follows.

[0034] Unit　1　>　Unit　2　=　Unit　3　>　Unit　4　=　Unit　5　=　Unit　6

[0035] The　priority　setting　unit　24　sets　the　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　set　by　the　active　combination　setting　unit　23. For　example,　the　priority　setting　unit　24　divides　a　prediction　period　into　identical-combination　periods,　where　the　identical-combination　periods　are　defined　as　subperiods　each　having　no　change　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination,　and　sets　the　priority　based　on　a　comparison　result　of　time-series　comparison　between　the　active　heat　source　machine　combinations　of　respective　identical-combination　periods.

[0036] Specifically,　in　consecutive　two　identical-combination　periods,　the　priority　setting　unit　24　determines　one　or　more　heat　source　machines　which　are　included　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　former　identical-combination　period　but　not　included　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　latter　identical-combination　period.　　The　priority　setting　unit　24　then　sets　the　lowest　priority　for　the　determined　heat　source　machine(s)　of　the　active　combination　of　heat　source　machines　in　the　former　identical-combination　period.

[0037] For　example,　description　will　be　provided　with　an　example　of　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　illustrated　in　Fig.　5,　and　the　prediction　period　is　divided　into　identical-combination　periods　TL1,　TL2,　and　TL3. The　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　identical-combination　period　TL1　includes　Unit　1,　Unit　2,　Unit　4,　Unit　5,　and　Unit　6. The　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　identical-combination　period　TL2　includes　Unit　1,　Unit　4,　Unit　5,　and　Unit　6. The　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　identical-combination　period　TL3　includes　Unit　1,　Unit　3,　Unit　4,　Unit　5,　and　Unit　6.

[0038] In　the　consecutive　two　identical-combination　periods　TL1　and　TL2,　the　priority　setting　unit　24　determines　one　or　more　heat　source　machines　which　are　included　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　former　identical-combination　period　TL1　but　not　included　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　latter　identical-combination　period　TL2.　　In　other　words,　the　priority　setting　unit　24　determines　one　or　more　heat　source　machines　suspended　in　the　latter　identical-combination　period　TL2.　　As　a　result,　Unit　2　is　determined. Subsequently,　the　priority　setting　unit　24　sets　the　lowest　priority　for　the　heat　source　machine,　Unit　2,　of　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　former　identical-combination　period　TL1.

[0039] Accordingly,　for　example,　the　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　in　the　identical-combination　period　TL1　is　set　to　Unit　1,　Unit　4,　Unit　5,　Unit　6,　and　Unit　2　in　descending　order,　for　example.　　Such　setting　enables　prompt　suspension　of　Unit　2　having　the　lowest　priority　when　the　former　identical-combination　period　TL1　has　transited　to　the　latter　identical-combination　period　TL2. When　the　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　significantly　fluctuates,　this　will　cause　frequent　activation　and　suspension　of　the　heat　source　machine　10,　which　is　unpreferable.　　In　contrast,　by　setting　the　priority　taking　a　time-series　change　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　into　consideration,　it　is　possible　to　stably　perform　activation / suspension　control　of　the　heat　source　machine　10　when　the　load　fluctuates.

[0040] The　predicted　demand　load,　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination,　and　the　priority　described　above　are　together　associated　with　date　and　time　and　stored　in　the　storage　unit　26.　　The　storage　unit　26　stores,　for　example,　information　required　for　performing　operation　control　in　addition　to　the　information　described　above.　　For　example,　the　storage　unit　26　stores　an　increasing-phase　threshold　serving　as　a　reference　in　performing　an　increasing-phase　process　(a　process　to　activate　a　suspended　heat　source　machine),　a　decreasing-phase　threshold　serving　as　a　reference　in　performing　a　decreasing-phase　process　(a　process　to　suspend　an　active　heat　source　machine),　and　the　like.

[0041] The　control　unit　25　performs　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　10　by　using　the　priority　set　by　the　priority　setting　unit　24,　for　example.　　Specifically,　the　control　unit　25　controls　the　number　of　active　units　of　heat　source　machines　in　accordance　with　the　priority　so　as　to　accommodate　the　actual　demand　load　required　by　the　external　load　2. Herein,　known　techniques　can　be　employed　as　appropriate　for　the　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines.　　For　example,　there　are　three　patterns　of　the　quantity　control:　1)　control　based　on　a　demand　amount　of　heat;　2)　control　based　on　a　required　flow　rate;　and　3)　control　based　on　a　required　amount　of　heat　and　a　required　flow　rate.

[0042] When　the　quantity　control　is　performed　based　on　a　demand　amount　of　heat,　the　number　of　active　units　of　heat　source　machines　is　controlled　in　accordance　with　the　actual　demand　amount　of　heat　so　that　a　load　rate　range　in　which　the　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　of　each　heat　source　machine　10　is　above　a　predetermined　value　is　achieved.　　For　example,　the　techniques　described　in　Patent　Literatures　1　and　2　or　the　like　can　be　applied.

[0043] In　the　case　of　the　quantity　control　based　on　a　demand　flow　rate,　the　control　unit　25　compares　the　demand　flow　rate,　the　maximum　flow　rate　of　active　heat　source　machines　and a　load　rate　to　activate　the　suspended　heat　source　machine　10　(hereafter,　referred　to　as　“increasing-phase　load　rate”)　and　a　load　rate　to　suspend　the　active　heat　source　machine　10　(hereafter,　referred　to　as　“decreasing-phase　load　rate”)　and　controls　the　number　of　active　units　of　heat　source　machines　to　satisfy　the　required　flow　rate.

[0044] In　the　case　of　the　quantity　control　based　on　the　demand　amount　of　heat　and　the　demand　flow　rate,　the　control　unit　25　activates　(starts　operation　of)　the　heat　source　machine　having　the　highest　priority　out　of　the　suspended　heat　source　machines　when　an　increasing-phase　condition　(condition　for　activating　a　suspended　heat　source　machine)　of　either　the　amount　of　heat　or　the　flow　rate　is　satisfied.　　The　control　unit　25　suspends　the　heat　source　machine　having　the　lowest　priority　out　of　the　active　heat　source　machines　when　decreasing-phase　conditions　(conditions　for　suspending　an　active　heat　source　machine)　of　both　the　amount　of　heat　and　the　flow　rate　are　satisfied.

[0045] As　described　above,　according　to　the　heat　source　system　and　the　control　method　of　the　same　of　the　present　embodiment,　in　the　heat　source　system　1　in　which　heat　source　machines　having　different　capacities　are　mixed,　the　past　demand　load　data,　the　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　the　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data　are　used　to　predict　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period,　and　the　property　of　each　heat　source　machine　and　the　predicted　demand　load　are　used　to　set　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　above　a　predetermined　value　on　a　predetermined　period　basis.　　The　priority　of　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　10　forming　the　heat　source　system　1　is　then　set　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination,　and　the　set　a　priority　is　used　to　perform　the　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　10.

[0046] As　described　above,　since　the　quantity　control　on　heat　source　machines　is　performed　based　on　the　priority　thereof　set　based　on　the　predicted　demand　load　and　the　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　above　a　predetermined　value　can　be　realized　for　a　fluctuating　demand　load.　　This　can　improve　the　energy　saving　effect.Second Embodiment

[0047] Next,　a　heat　source　system　and　a　control　method　of　the　same　according　to　the　second　embodiment　of　the　present　disclosure　will　be　described　with　reference　to　the　drawings. In　the　heat　source　system　1　according　to　the　first　embodiment　described　above,　when　the　quantity　control　is　performed　based　on　the　priority,　operation　with　a　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination　may　fail　to　be　performed　due　to　some　unexpected　instance　even　when　the　error　between　a　predicted　demand　load　and　an　actual　demand　load　is　not　so　large.

[0048] For　example,　as　illustrated　in　Fig.　6,　it　is　assumed　that,　while　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　for　an　expected　demand　load　consists　of　Unit　2,　Unit　3,　and　Unit　4,　the　heat　source　machines　in　actual　operation　consists　of　Unit　1,　Unit　2,　and　Unit　3.　　In　such　a　case,　to　obtain　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　high　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　set　in　advance,　it　is　required　to　suspend　currently　active　Unit　1　and　newly　activate　Unit　4.

[0049] The　control　unit　25　according　to　the　present　embodiment　takes　such　a　case　into　consideration　and　forcibly　activates　a　suspended　heat　source　machine　included　in　a　predicted　active　heat　source　machine　combination　when　the　current　number　of　active　units　of　heat　source　machines　and　the　predicted　number　of　active　units　of　heat　source　machines　are　the　same　and　the　predicted　active　heat　source　machine　combination　and　the　current　active　heat　source　machine　combination　are　different　from　each　other.

[0050] By　performing　the　above　control,　for　example,　when　a　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination　(see　Fig.　6)　and　an　actual　active　heat　source　machine　combination　(see　Fig.　7)　are　different　from　each　other,　it　is　possible　to　promptly　activate　the　heat　source　machine　10　of　Unit　4.　　The　activation　of　the　heat　source　machine　10　of　Unit　4　results　in　a　state　where　a　supply　load　from　the　heat　source　system　is　excessive　to　the　current　demand　load.　　In　such　a　case,　in　a　state　where　the　operation　of　the　heat　source　machine　10　of　Unit　4　is　stabilized,　any　one　of　the　heat　source　machines　will　be　suspended.　　In　such　a　case,　since　Unit　1　is　not　included　in　the　expected　active　heat　source　machine　combination,　the　priority　of　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination　should　be　the　lowest　for　Unit　1　out　of　the　active　heat　source　machines　(Unit　1　to　Unit　4).　　Therefore,　when　the　demand　load　satisfies　the　decreasing-phase　condition　of　Unit　1,　the　heat　source　machine　of　Unit　1　will　be　suspended.

[0051] As　described　above,　according　to　the　heat　source　system　and　the　control　method　of　the　same　of　the　present　embodiment,　when　an　actual　active　heat　source　machine　combination　and　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　set　based　on　a　predicted　demand　load　are　different　from　each　other,　the　actual　active　heat　source　machine　combination　can　be　modified　to　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination.　　Accordingly,　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　high　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　can　be　realized.

[0052] Since　the　above　control　method　will　suspend　the　heat　source　machine　10　having　a　low　priority　promptly　after　forcibly　activating　the　heat　source　machine　10　regardless　of　a　demand　load,　a　temporary　output　fluctuation　occurs.　　Therefore,　the　above　control　may　be　permitted　only　for　the　external　load　2　that　can　tolerate　such　an　output　fluctuation.　Third Embodiment

[0053] Next,　a　heat　source　system　and　a　control　method　of　the　same　according　to　the　third　embodiment　of　the　present　disclosure　will　be　described　with　reference　to　the　drawings. In　the　heat　source　system　1　according　to　the　first　embodiment　described　above,　when　the　operation　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　10　is　performed　based　on　the　priority　thereof,　even　in　a　state　where　the　actual　demand　load　can　be　accommodated　by　two　heat　source　machines　10,　a　third　heat　source　machine　10　may　be　activated,　and　the　operation　is　thus　performed　with　three　heat　source　machines　10.　　This　is　because　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　of　each　heat　source　machine　10　include　margins　than　are　needed.

[0054] For　example,　it　is　assumed　that　the　rated　flow　rate　per　each　heat　source　machine　10　is　100　[m3 / h].　　In　such　a　case,　when　the　actual　load　is　160　[m3 / h],　the　demand　flow　rate　can　be　accommodated　by　two　heat　source　machines　10.　　Therefore,　if　the　number　of　active　units　of　heat　source　machines　10　is　three,　it　is　preferable　to　promptly　suspend　one　of　the　heat　source　machines　10　in　terms　of　energy　saving.

[0055] As　illustrated　in　Fig.　8,　however,　margins　are　included　to　some　degrees　in　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　of　the　heat　source　machine　10,　for　example.　　Thus,　unless　the　actual　demand　load　does　not　fall　below　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　(in　Fig.　8,　140　[m3 / h]),　the　number　of　active　units　of　heat　source　machines　10　will　be　maintained　to　three　and　not　changed.

[0056] Therefore,　to　address　such　an　instance,　the　present　embodiment　has　a　configuration　for　correcting　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　of　each　heat　source　machine　10.　　In　the　following,　the　same　configurations　as　those　in　the　first　embodiment　described　above　will　be　labeled　with　the　same　references,　and　different　configurations　will　be　mainly　described.

[0057] Fig.　9　is　a　function　configuration　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　functions　of　a　system　control　device　20a　according　to　the　present　embodiment.　　As　illustrated　in　Fig.　9,　the　control　unit　25a　includes　a　threshold　setting　unit　251,　an　increasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　252,　and　a　decreasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　253.

[0058] The　threshold　setting　unit　251　sets　an　increasing-phase　threshold　used　when　activating　the　heat　source　machine　10　and　a　decreasing-phase　threshold　used　when　suspending　the　heat　source　machine　10,　respectively,　based　on　the　property　of　each　heat　source　machine　10　(such　as,　for　example,　the　minimum　flow　rate　and　the　maximum　flow　rate　of　a　heat　source　machine).　　Known　techniques　can　be　employed　as　appropriate　for　the　setting　scheme　of　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　of　each　heat　source　machine,　and　detailed　description　thereof　will　be　omitted　here.　　For　example,　the　increasing-phase　threshold　is　set　to　a　value　obtained　by　subtracting　a　predetermined　margin　from　the　sum　of　the　maximum　flow　rates　of　active　heat　source　machines.　　For　example,　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　is　set　to　a　value　obtained　by　subtracting　a　predetermined　margin　from　the　sum　of　the　maximum　flow　rates　of　the　active　heat　source　machines　excluding　heat　source　machines　to　be　suspended　(for　example,　see　Fig.　8).

[0059] The　increasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　252　corrects　the　increasing-phase　threshold　by　increasing　the　increasing-phase　threshold　of　a　heat　source　machine　by　a　predetermined　level.　　This　can　cause　a　suspended　heat　source　machine　to　be　less　likely　to　be　activated　and　enables　control　such　that　the　current　number　of　active　units　is　likely　to　be　maintained.

[0060] Herein,　the　increasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　252　may　correct　the　increasing-phase　thresholds　of　all　the　heat　source　machines　10,　respectively,　except　for　the　heat　source　machine　having　of　the　highest　priority　or　may　correct　only　the　increasing-phase　threshold　of　M　heat　source　machines　in　ascending　order　of　the　priority　(M　>　N　=　the　number　of　all　the　heat　source　machines).　　Fig.　10　illustrates　the　case　of　M　=　1　as　an　example.

[0061] The　decreasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　253　corrects　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　by　increasing　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　by　a　predetermined　level.　　This　can　cause　an　active　heat　source　machine　to　be　likely　to　be　suspended　and　reduce　the　number　of　active　units　as　much　as　possible.

[0062] the　decreasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　253　may　correct　the　decreasing-phase　thresholds　of　all　the　heat　source　machines　10,　respectively,　except　for　the　heat　source　machine　having　of　the　highest　priority　or　may　correct　only　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　of　M　heat　source　machines　in　ascending　order　of　the　priority　(M　>　N　=　the　number　of　all　the　heat　source　machines).　　Herein,　M　can　be　set　to　any　value.　　Fig.　10　illustrates　the　case　of　M　=　1　as　an　example.

[0063] The　control　unit　25a　performs　the　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　10　by　using　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　after　corrected.

[0064] Fig.　10　is　a　diagram　illustrating　an　example　of　the　increasing-phase　threshold　after　corrected　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　after　corrected.　　Fig.　10　is　a　diagram　illustrating　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　when　the　heat　source　system　includes　three　heat　source　machines　10.　　As　illustrated　in　Fig.　10,　since　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　are　corrected　to　larger　values,　the　heat　source　machine　having　the　third　lowest　priority　can　be　controlled　to　be　less　likely　to　be　activated　but　to　likely　to　be　suspended. Accordingly,　the　operation　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　10　can　be　performed　in　a　state　close　to　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　set　based　on　a　predicted　demand　load.　　Thus,　a　high　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　can　be　realized.

[0065] Although　the　case　where　both　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　are　corrected　has　been　described　in　the　above　third　embodiment,　at　least　one　of　the　increasing-phase　threshold　and　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　may　be　corrected. The　above　correction　of　the　thresholds　may　be　performed　only　on　the　flow　rate　condition　and　not　on　the　heat　amount　condition.

[0066] While　the　present　disclosure　has　been　described　above　with　reference　to　the　embodiments,　the　technical　scope　of　the　present　disclosure　is　not　limited　to　the　scope　described　in　the　above　embodiments.　　Various　modification　or　improvement　can　be　added　to　the　above　embodiments　within　the　scope　not　departing　from　the　spirit　of　the　disclosure,　and　forms　to　which　such　modification　or　improvement　is　added　are　also　included　in　the　technical　scope　of　the　present　disclosure.　　The　above　embodiments　may　be　combined　as　appropriate. For　example,　the　first　to　third　embodiments　may　be　combined.

[0067] Although　the　above　embodiments　have　been　described　with　the　case　where　the　system　control　device　20　includes　the　data　storage　unit　21　as　an　example,　the　disclosure　is　not　limited　thereto.　　For　example,　the　data　storage　unit　21　may　be　provided　to　a　server　or　the　like　on　a　network　that　can　be　accessed　by　the　system　control　device　20.

[0068] The　data　storage　unit　21,　the　load　prediction　unit　22,　the　active　combination　setting　unit　23,　and　the　priority　setting　unit　24　may　be　implemented　with　a　computer　different　from　the　system　control　device　20　(for　example,　a　priority　setting　system).　　In　such　a　case,　the　system　control　device　20　and　the　priority　setting　system　are　configured　to　be　able　to　communicate　data　with　each　other　and　may　implement　the　above　functions　by　transferring　required　data　as　appropriate.　　Any　of　the　heat　source　machine　control　devices　8a　to　8c　may　have　the　function　of　the　system　control　device　20.

[0069] <Supplementary　Note> The　heat　source　system　and　the　control　method　of　the　same　according　to　the　embodiments　described　above　are　understood　as　follows,　for　example.

[0070] The　heat　source　system　(1)　according　to　the　first　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure　is　a　heat　source　system　including　a　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　(10),　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　including　at　least　one　heat　source　machine　having　a　different　capacity,　and　the　heat　source　system　includes:　a　load　prediction　unit　(22)　configured　to　predict　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period　by　using　past　demand　load　data,　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data;　an　active　combination　setting　unit　(23)　configured　to　set　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　on　a　predetermined　period　basis　by　using　a　property　of　each　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　the　demand　load　predicted　by　the　load　prediction　unit,　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance　(COP)　above　a　predetermined　value;　a　priority　setting　unit　(24)　configured　to　set　a　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination;　and　a　control　unit　(25,　25a)　configured　to　perform　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　by　using　the　set　priority.

[0071] According　to　the　above　aspect,　since　the　quantity　control　on　heat　source　machines　is　performed　based　on　the　priority　set　based　on　the　predicted　demand　load　and　the　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　above　a　predetermined　value　can　be　realized　for　a　fluctuating　demand　load.　　This　can　improve　the　energy　saving　effect.

[0072] In　the　heat　source　system　(1)　according　to　the　second　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure,　in　the　above　first　aspect,　the　priority　setting　unit　(24)　divides　the　prediction　period　into　identical-combination　periods,　where　the　identical-combination　periods　are　defined　as　subperiods　each　having　no　change　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination,　and　sets　the　priority　based　on　a　comparison　result　of　time-series　comparison　between　active　heat　source　machine　combinations　in　respective　identical-combination　periods.

[0073] According　to　the　above　aspect,　the　priority　is　set　by　taking　a　time-series　change　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　into　consideration.　　Accordingly,　even　when　the　load　fluctuates,　frequent　activation / suspension　of　heat　source　machines　can　be　avoided,　and　stable　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　can　be　performed.　　Further,　destabilized　operation　control　due　to　deviation　in　prediction　can　be　reduced.

[0074] In　the　heat　source　system　(1)　according　to　the　third　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure,　in　the　above　second　aspect,　the　priority　setting　unit　(24)　determines　a　heat　source　machine　in　consecutive　two　of　the　identical-combination　periods,　the　heat　source　machine　included　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　former　identical-combination　period　but　not　included　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　latter　identical-combination　period,　and　sets　the　lowest　priority　for　the　determined　heat　source　machine　of　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　former　identical-combination　period.

[0075] According　to　the　above　aspect,　the　priority　is　set　by　taking　a　time-series　change　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　into　consideration.　　Accordingly,　even　when　the　load　fluctuates,　frequent　activation / suspension　of　heat　source　machines　can　be　avoided,　and　stable　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　can　be　performed.　　Further,　destabilized　operation　control　due　to　deviation　in　prediction　can　be　reduced.

[0076] In　the　heat　source　system　according　to　the　fourth　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure,　in　any　of　the　above　first　to　third　aspects,　the　control　unit　(25)　forcibly　activates　a　suspended　heat　source　machine　included　in　a　predicted　active　heat　source　machine　combination　when　the　current　number　of　active　heat　source　machines　and　the　predicted　number　of　active　heat　source　machines　are　the　same　and　the　predicted　active　heat　source　machine　combination　and　the　current　active　heat　source　machine　combination　are　different　form　each　other.

[0077] According　to　the　above　aspect,　when　an　actual　active　heat　source　machine　combination　and　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　set　based　on　a　predicted　demand　load　are　different　from　each　other,　the　current　active　heat　source　machine　combination　can　be　modified　to　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination.　　Accordingly,　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　high　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　can　be　realized.

[0078] In　the　heat　source　system　according　to　the　fifth　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure,　in　any　of　the　above　first　to　fourth　aspects,　the　control　unit　(25a)　includes　a　threshold　setting　unit　configured　to　set　an　increasing-phase　threshold　used　when　activating　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　a　property　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　an　increasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　configured　to　increase　the　increasing-phase　threshold　by　a　predetermined　level,　and　the　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　is　performed　by　using　the　increasing-phase　threshold　after　corrected.

[0079] According　to　the　above　aspect,　since　the　increasing-phase　threshold　is　corrected　to　a　larger　value,　the　heat　source　machines　can　be　less　likely　to　be　activated.　　Accordingly,　the　operation　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　can　be　performed　in　a　state　close　to　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　set　based　on　a　predicted　demand　load,　and　a　high　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　can　be　realized.

[0080] In　the　heat　source　system　according　to　the　sixth　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure,　in　any　of　the　above　first　to　fifth　aspects,　the　control　unit　(25a)　includes　a　threshold　setting　unit　(251)　configured　to　set　a　decreasing-phase　threshold　used　when　suspending　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　a　property　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　a　decreasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　(253)　configured　to　increase　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　by　a　predetermined　level,　and　the　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　(10)　is　performed　by　using　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　after　corrected.

[0081] According　to　the　above　aspect,　since　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　is　corrected　to　a　larger　value,　the　heat　source　machines　can　be　likely　to　be　suspended.　　Accordingly,　the　operation　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　can　be　performed　in　a　state　close　to　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　set　based　on　a　predicted　demand　load,　and　a　high　coefficient　of　performance,　COP,　can　be　realized.

[0082] The　control　method　of　the　heat　source　system　(1)　according　to　the　seventh　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure　is　a　control　method　of　a　heat　source　system　including　a　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　(10),　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　including　at　least　one　heat　source　machine　having　a　different　capacity,　and　the　control　method　is　performed　by　a　computer　and　includes:　predicting　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period　by　using　past　demand　load　data,　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data;　setting　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　on　a　predetermined　period　basis　by　using　a　property　of　each　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　the　demand　load　predicted　in　the　predicting,　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance　(COP)　above　a　predetermined　value;　setting　a　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination;　and　performing　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　by　using　the　set　priority.

[0083] The　program　according　to　the　eighth　aspect　of　the　present　disclosure　is　a　program　for　causing　a　computer　to　perform　the　control　method　of　the　heat　source　system　according　to　the　above　seventh　aspect.

[0084] 1　　　heat　source　system 2　　　external　load 3　　　pump 3a　　　pump 3b　　　pump 3c　　　pump 4　　　return　header 5　　　supply　header 6　　　bypass　pipe 7　　　bypass　valve 8a　　　heat　source　machine　control　device 8b　　　heat　source　machine　control　device 8c　　　heat　source　machine　control　device 9　　　communication　medium 10　　　heat　source　machine 10a　　　heat　source　machine 10b　　　heat　source　machine 10c　　　heat　source　machine 11　　　temperature　sensor 12　　　flow　rate　sensor 13　　　temperature　sensor 14　　　temperature　sensor 15　　　temperature　sensor 20　　　system　control　device 20a　　　system　control　device 21　　　data　storage　unit 22　　　load　prediction　unit 23　　　active　combination　setting　unit 24　　　priority　setting　unit 25　　　control　unit 25a　　　control　unit 26　　　storage　unit 251　　　threshold　setting　unit 252　　　increasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit 253　　　decreasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit

Claims

1. A　heat　source　system　comprising　a　plurality　of　heat　source　machines,　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　including　at　least　one　heat　source　machine　having　a　different　capacity,　the　heat　source　system　comprising: a　load　prediction　unit　configured　to　predict　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period　by　using　past　demand　load　data,　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data; an　active　combination　setting　unit　configured　to　set　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　on　a　predetermined　period　basis　by　using　a　property　of　each　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　the　demand　load　predicted　by　the　load　prediction　unit,　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance　above　a　predetermined　value; a　priority　setting　unit　configured　to　set　a　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination;　and a　control　unit　configured　to　perform　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　by　using　the　set　priority.

2. The　heat　source　system　according　to　claim　1,　wherein　the　priority　setting　unit　divides　the　prediction　period　into　identical-combination　periods,　where　the　identical-combination　periods　are　defined　as　subperiods　each　having　no　change　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination,　and　sets　the　priority　based　on　a　comparison　result　of　time-series　comparison　between　active　heat　source　machine　combinations　in　respective　identical-combination　periods.

3. The　heat　source　system　according　to　claim　2,　wherein　the　priority　setting　unit　determines　a　heat　source　machine　in　consecutive　two　of　the　identical-combination　periods,　the　heat　source　machine　included　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　former　identical-combination　period　but　not　included　in　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　latter　identical-combination　period,　and　sets　the　lowest　priority　for　the　determined　heat　source　machine　of　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　in　the　former　identical-combination　period.

4. The　heat　source　system　according　to　claim　1,　wherein　the　control　unit　forcibly　activates　a　suspended　heat　source　machine　included　in　a　predicted　active　heat　source　machine　combination　when　the　current　number　of　active　heat　source　machines　and　the　predicted　number　of　active　heat　source　machines　are　the　same　and　the　predicted　active　heat　source　machine　combination　and　the　current　active　heat　source　machine　combination　are　different　form　each　other.

5. The　heat　source　system　according　to　claim　1,　 wherein　the　control　unit　comprises a　threshold　setting　unit　configured　to　set　an　increasing-phase　threshold　used　when　activating　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　a　property　of　the　heat　source　machines,　and an　increasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　configured　to　increase　the　increasing-phase　threshold　by　a　predetermined　level,　and wherein　the　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　is　performed　by　using　the　increasing-phase　threshold　after　corrected.

6. The　heat　source　system　according　to　claim　5,　wherein　the　increasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　increases,　by　a　predetermined　level,　the　increasing-phase　threshold　of　a　predetermined　number　of　heat　source　machines　in　ascending　order　of　the　priority.

7. The　heat　source　system　according　to　claim　1,　 wherein　the　control　unit　comprises a　threshold　setting　unit　configured　to　set　a　decreasing-phase　threshold　used　when　suspending　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　a　property　of　the　heat　source　machines,　and a　decreasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　configured　to　increase　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　by　a　predetermined　level,　and wherein　the　quantity　control　on　the　heat　source　machines　is　performed　by　using　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　after　corrected.

8. The　heat　source　system　according　to　claim　7,　wherein　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　correction　unit　increases,　by　a　predetermined　level,　the　decreasing-phase　threshold　of　a　predetermined　number　of　heat　source　machines　in　ascending　order　of　the　priority.

9. A　control　method　of　a　heat　source　system　comprising　a　plurality　of　heat　source　machines,　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　including　at　least　one　heat　source　machine　having　a　different　capacity,　the　control　method　being　performed　by　a　computer　and　comprising: predicting　a　demand　load　required　in　a　future　prediction　period　by　using　past　demand　load　data,　outside　air　temperature　data,　and　outside　air　wet-bulb　temperature　data; setting　an　active　heat　source　machine　combination　on　a　predetermined　period　basis　by　using　a　property　of　each　of　the　heat　source　machines　and　the　demand　load　predicted　in　the　predicting,　the　active　heat　source　machine　combination　having　a　coefficient　of　performance　above　a　predetermined　value; setting　a　priority　of　the　heat　source　machines　based　on　the　set　active　heat　source　machine　combination;　and performing　quantity　control　on　the　plurality　of　heat　source　machines　by　using　the　set　priority.

10. A　program　for　causing　a　computer　to　perform　the　control　method　of　the　heat　source　system　according　to　claim　9.

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