Adaptive Experiment Simulation for Variant Count and Duration Planning
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing adaptive experimentation methods are limited by the number of variants that can be included and the indeterminate duration required to reach a conclusion, making it difficult to optimize real-world experiments.
Innovation Solution
A simulation system is employed to simulate adaptive experiments, generating results that estimate the time and number of variants needed for a real-world experiment, allowing for optimized design and execution.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Quantity of substance
If adaptive experiments allow experimentation on more variants with varying assignment proportions, then the number of variants that can be tested is increased, but the experiment duration becomes undetermined and extends indefinitely
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs simulation experiments before the actual adaptive experiment to estimate the required duration and number of variants. By conducting preliminary simulations with different configurations, the system determines optimal parameters in advance, preventing indefinite experiment duration while maintaining the ability to test multiple variants.
2Device complexity
If A/B experiments are conducted to test variants, then the experiment structure is simple and fixed, but the number of variants that can be included is limited
Solution Approach 1:
The system creates simulation copies of the adaptive experiment that mirror the structure of A/B experiments but allow for more variants. By using simulated environments that replicate real experiment conditions, the system can test numerous variants without the structural limitations of traditional A/B testing, then apply findings to actual experiments.
3Duration of action of moving object
If the proportion of assignments to variants is fixed as in A/B experiments, then the experiment duration is predictable, but the ability to adapt to observed results is reduced
Solution Approach 1:
The system dynamically adjusts assignment proportions during simulation experiments based on observed results, similar to real adaptive experiments. By making the assignment proportions dynamic rather than fixed, the simulations accurately reflect the adaptability needed in real experiments while still being able to estimate duration through multiple simulated runs.
Data Source
AI summary
A variation testing system environment for simulating adaptive experiments of objects is disclosed. An experiment system conducts one or more simulations of an adaptive experiment that includes a plurality of variants of an object. Simulation results based on the one or more simulations are generated that are indicative of at least an estimated amount of time to conduct a real-world adaptive experiment based on the one or more simulations.