Adaptive Predictive Model for Personalized Treatment Strategy

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Solution Overview

Problem

Current medical treatment models struggle to accurately predict individual patient responses to treatment options due to high variability in physiological system parameters, making it difficult for physicians to conceptualize risks and benefits effectively.

Innovation Solution

A dynamically adaptive predictive model that utilizes model predictive control theory and statistical verification to personalize treatment strategies based on individual patient measurements, allowing for real-time adjustment and forecasting of physiological responses to pharmaceuticals and other medical interventions.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Adaptability or versatility

If a general prediction model representative of an entire population is used, then the model can be applied broadly to all patients, but the prediction accuracy for individual patients deteriorates due to high variability in physiological parameters

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveapplicability to populationVSAvoidprediction accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
Adaptability or versatilityVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The system transitions from a static general population model to a dynamic personalized model that adapts in real-time as new patient measurements become available. The model continuously updates patient-specific parameters, transforming the prediction approach from fixed to dynamic, thereby improving individual accuracy while maintaining population-level applicability through the adaptive framework

Inventive Principle:
Principle #15Dynamics

Solution Approach 2:

The system changes the parameters of the prediction model from fixed population-average values to dynamic patient-specific values. By updating physiological parameters individually for each patient based on their measurement data, the model achieves both broad applicability (through the same framework) and high precision (through customized parameters)

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

2Measurement precision

If a personalized prediction model is developed for individual patients, then prediction accuracy improves, but the complexity of the system increases due to need for continuous adaptation and verification

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction accuracyVSAvoidmodel complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system implements feedback loops where new patient measurements are continuously fed back into the model to update and refine predictions. This feedback mechanism enables automatic adaptation without requiring complex manual adjustments, as the system self-corrects based on observed patient responses, thereby managing complexity through automated iterative improvement

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

Solution Approach 2:

The personalized model performs self-adjustment by automatically updating patient-specific parameters based on incoming measurement data. The system serves itself by autonomously refining its predictions without external intervention, reducing the operational complexity despite the sophisticated personalization capabilities

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

3Productivity

If traditional computer models representing physiological systems are used, then the models can predict population-level responses, but they fail to accurately predict individual patient responses due to parameter variability

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction capabilityVSAvoidprediction reliability
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The system segments the general population model into individual patient-specific models. By dividing the population-level predictions into discrete personalized sub-models, each patient receives tailored predictions that account for their unique physiological characteristics, thereby maintaining overall prediction capability while significantly improving individual reliability

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The system applies local quality by customizing model parameters specifically for each patient's local physiological context. Instead of using uniform population parameters everywhere, the model adapts parameters locally to match individual patient characteristics, ensuring reliable predictions for each specific case while preserving the overall prediction framework

Inventive Principle:
Principle #3Local quality

Data Source

PatentEP3665706B1Graphical user interface for personalized prediction modeling
Publication Date: 2023.08.02 AMGEN INC
  • EP3665706B1 patent drawingFigure 1A
  • EP3665706B1 patent drawingFigure 1B
  • EP3665706B1 patent drawingFigure 1C

AI summary

A system, computer-readable medium, and method for developing a treatment strategy for a patient with a medical condition related to an undesirable occurrence in at least one population of in vivo cells. The system, and method include generating one or more proposed treatment strategies to treat the patient's medical condition. A predictive model is utilized to predict a patient's physiological response to events that occur during the treatment strategies. As patient information is measured over time, the predictive model is adapted to more accurately model the patient's expected response.