Adaptive Resource Reservoir Development via Multi-Branch Decision Tree
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current oil reservoir development planning relies on deterministic methods that fail to adapt to evolving geological information, leading to suboptimal drilling plans due to extensive uncertainty and computational intensity.
Innovation Solution
An adaptive resource field development approach using a multi-branch decision tree that incorporates multiple development plans corresponding to various geological realizations, allowing for dynamic adjustment of well locations and trajectories based on appraisal well results, facilitated by a technological tree builder module and development manual production module.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Adaptability or versatility
If a single deterministic reservoir development plan is designed, then the planning process is simple and straightforward, but it fails to adapt to evolving geological information and leads to suboptimal drilling plans
Solution Approach 1:
The patent transforms the static deterministic development plan into a dynamic multi-branch decision tree that can adapt to evolving geological information. The decision tree structure allows the development plan to evolve dynamically as new information becomes available from appraisal wells, enabling the system to select optimal paths based on actual geological realizations rather than relying on a single predetermined plan.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent segments the single deterministic plan into multiple branching scenarios, where each branch represents a potential geological realization and corresponding development strategy. This segmentation allows the system to evaluate and select from multiple alternative plans based on actual field conditions, improving adaptability while managing complexity through structured decomposition.
2Reliability
If multiple development scenarios are evaluated to account for uncertainty, then the robustness of the plan improves, but the computational intensity increases extensively
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary evaluation of multiple development scenarios during the plan design phase, creating a decision tree with pre-calculated performance metrics for different geological realizations. This preliminary action allows the system to account for uncertainty and select robust scenarios in advance, reducing the need for extensive real-time computational analysis when making drilling decisions.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent creates simplified representations (copies) of multiple geological realizations and their corresponding development scenarios. By working with these representative models rather than exhaustive simulations, the system can evaluate multiple scenarios and select robust plans with reduced computational intensity while maintaining reliability.
3Reliability
If a single best guess scenario is used, then the planning process is efficient and quick, but it does not account for geological uncertainty adequately
Solution Approach 1:
The patent creates a multi-functional decision tree structure that serves multiple purposes: it accounts for geological uncertainty by incorporating multiple scenarios, provides a framework for rapid decision-making, and enables adaptation as new information becomes available. This universal structure replaces the single best-guess approach while maintaining planning efficiency through its organized hierarchy of scenarios and decision nodes.
Data Source
AI summary
A plurality of development scenarios is determined. At least a first well is drilled at a first location and trajectory that are common to the plurality of development scenarios. A result of the at least one first well is assessed. A first subset of development scenarios is selected from the plurality of development scenarios based at least on the result of the first well. A first sequence of subsequent wells, including at least one well, are drilled at a first sequence of subsequent locations and trajectories that are common to the first subset of development scenarios.