AI Redemption Prediction Using Gradient Boosting

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Solution Overview

Problem

Financial institutions face challenges in predicting future redemption events in mutual fund products due to limitations in existing subjective, rules-based processes that fail to analyze time-evolving trends in customer behavior and provide real-time insights, leading to missed opportunities to prevent such events.

Innovation Solution

An adaptively trained machine-learning or artificial-intelligence process, such as a gradient-boosted decision-tree process, is employed to predict the likelihood of redemption events by analyzing customer interaction data across temporal intervals, generating output data and explainability data to identify key features contributing to these predictions.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Ease of operation

If subjective, rules-based processes are used to predict redemption events, then the process is simple to implement, but the prediction accuracy and ability to analyze time-evolving trends deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvesimplicity of prediction processVSAvoidprediction accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of operationVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The patent replaces subjective, rules-based mechanical prediction processes with an adaptive machine learning system that automatically learns from historical data. The system uses trained models (such as gradient boosting or neural networks) to predict redemption likelihood, substituting human judgment with computational intelligence that can process complex temporal patterns and evolving customer behavior trends.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Solution Approach 2:

The prediction system performs self-training by continuously learning from historical redemption data and customer interaction patterns. The machine learning models automatically adjust their parameters based on feedback from actual redemption events, enabling the system to improve its prediction accuracy over time without requiring manual reconfiguration of prediction rules.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

2Device complexity

If rules-based processes are used, then the system complexity is low, but the ability to provide real-time insights and analyze time-evolving trends deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvesystem complexityVSAvoidability to analyze time-evolving trends
Core Design Contradiction:
Device complexityVSAdaptability or versatility

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements a dynamic prediction system where machine learning models continuously adapt to changing customer behavior patterns and market conditions. The system processes time-evolving data streams to update prediction parameters in real-time, allowing it to capture emerging trends and adjust its analysis capabilities dynamically rather than relying on static, pre-programmed rules.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #15Dynamics

Solution Approach 2:

The system incorporates feedback mechanisms where actual redemption events and customer interactions are fed back into the machine learning models for continuous retraining. This feedback loop enables the system to learn from past predictions and outcomes, improving its ability to analyze time-evolving trends and adapt to changing patterns in customer behavior over time.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

3Ease of manufacture

If traditional prediction methods are used, then implementation is straightforward, but the ability to prevent future redemption events deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveease of implementationVSAvoidability to prevent redemption events
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of manufactureVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent enables preliminary action by predicting future redemption events before they actually occur. The machine learning system analyzes historical data and identifies customers at risk of redemption, allowing financial institutions to take preventive actions in advance such as targeted communications or personalized offers to retain customers and prevent future redemption events.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Data Source

PatentUS20220327430A1Predicting targeted redemption events using trained artificial-intelligence processes
Publication Date: 2022.10.13 THE TORONTO DOMINION BANK
  • US20220327430A1 patent drawing
  • US20220327430A1 patent drawing
  • US20220327430A1 patent drawing

AI summary

The disclosed embodiments include computer-implemented systems and methods that facilitate a prediction of future occurrences of redemption events using adaptively trained artificial intelligence processes. For example, an apparatus may generate an input dataset based on elements of first interaction data associated with a first temporal interval. Based on an application of a trained artificial intelligence process to the input dataset, the apparatus may generate output data representative of a predicted likelihood of an occurrence of each of a plurality of targeted events during a second temporal interval. The apparatus may also transmit at least a portion of the output data and explainability data associated with the trained artificial intelligence process to a computing system, which may perform operations based on the portion of the output data and the explainability data.