Aircraft Contrail Forecasting for Low-Radiative-Forcing Flight Paths
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current technologies for mitigating contrail formation are expensive, environmentally impactful, and ineffective in significantly reducing atmospheric radiative forcing, due to limitations in predicting contrail formation and its radiative effects.
Innovation Solution
A method and system for optimizing flight trajectories to minimize contrail formation by receiving weather and flight parameters, determining tentative and optimized atmospheric radiative forcing quantities, and validating the optimized trajectory using imagery data to calculate an offset value for carbon dioxide equivalents.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Object-generated harmful factors
If technological mitigation measures (engine design improvement, sustainable aviation fuels) are implemented to reduce contrail formation, then contrail formation is reduced, but cost increases and environmental footprint is created
Solution Approach 1:
The patent changes operational parameters (flight altitude, speed, trajectory) rather than modifying the aircraft or fuel system. By dynamically adjusting flight parameters based on weather conditions, the system reduces contrail formation without requiring expensive engine modifications or alternative fuels, thereby avoiding the cost increase associated with technological mitigation measures.
Solution Approach 2:
The system dynamically adjusts flight trajectories and operational parameters in real-time based on atmospheric conditions. This dynamic approach allows the aircraft to avoid contrail-forming conditions without permanent modifications to the aircraft system, providing a cost-effective alternative to static technological solutions like engine redesign.
2Measurement precision
If computational prediction models are used to estimate atmospheric radiative forcing, then radiative forcing can be estimated, but computational time increases and resolution is limited
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary assessment of contrail formation risk using simplified criteria before committing to detailed radiative forcing calculations. By pre-identifying high-risk flight conditions based on basic weather parameters, the system can selectively apply more computationally intensive models only when necessary, thereby reducing overall computational time while maintaining estimation precision for critical cases.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies a tiered approach where basic contrail risk assessment is performed for all flight conditions, and detailed radiative forcing modeling is applied only to cases where contrail formation is likely. This partial application of intensive computation avoids the excessive computational time required for full-resolution modeling of all flight conditions while maintaining precision where it matters most.
3Object-generated harmful factors
If flight trajectory is optimized to prevent contrail formation, then atmospheric radiative forcing is reduced, but flight path complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies contrail prevention measures locally to specific flight segments where atmospheric conditions are favorable for contrail formation, rather than optimizing the entire flight trajectory. This allows the aircraft to maintain simple, direct routes for most of the journey while making localized adjustments only in high-risk zones, thereby reducing radiative forcing without significantly increasing overall flight path complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The flight trajectory is divided into segments based on atmospheric conditions, with contrail optimization applied only to segments where it is beneficial. This segmentation allows the majority of the flight to follow simple, straightforward paths while applying complex optimization only where necessary, balancing radiative forcing reduction with trajectory simplicity.
Applied Scientific Principles
This section explains which scientific principles are used to turn an abstract innovation direction into a practical engineering solution.
Function Achieved in This Case
This approach efficiently reduces the global warming potential and net radiative forcing of contrail formation, providing a robust alternative to conventional methods by optimizing flight operations and generating an equivalent offset value to compensate for carbon emissions.
Implementation Method 1
Condensation trails, or contrails, are left behind by aircraft flying at high altitudes
Implementation Method 2
contrails have a net warming influence (net positive radiative forcing) on the Earth's radiation budget by trapping more outgoing longwave radiation than reflecting incoming shortwave radiation
Data Source
AI summary
Disclosed is a method for determining an atmospheric radiative forcing difference by optimising or preventing contrail formation caused by an aircraft. The method comprises receiving one or more weather parameters to determine contrail forecast data; receiving one or more flight parameters associated with aircraft to determine flight data; determining tentative atmospheric radiative forcing quantity, along tentative flight trajectory, based on contrail forecast data and flight data; altering one or more flight parameters to determine optimised flight trajectory having optimum atmospheric radiative forcing quantity, wherein optimised flight trajectory is validated using imagery data; and determining an atmospheric radiative forcing difference to evaluate offset value for at least one forcing parameter associated with atmospheric radiative forcing difference. Disclosed also is an apparatus for determining atmospheric radiative forcing caused by aircraft by optimising or preventing contrail formation. Further, disclosed is computer program product to carry out aforementioned method.