Airline Hold Time Optimization for Passenger Misconnects
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current airline operations face challenges in minimizing passenger misconnects due to delayed incoming flights, as existing methods either rely on human judgment or rule-based approaches that do not consider global optimality or passenger value effectively.
Innovation Solution
A processor-implemented method that collects data on incoming flights and passenger itineraries to identify hold options for outbound flights, computes passenger and airline disutility, and recommends a hold option with the least total disutility, considering predefined business factors and constraints.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If a human-centric approach with flight trackers is used to estimate arrival delay and hold connecting flights, then passenger misconnects are reduced, but the decision-making process becomes complex and costly in terms of operational resources and time
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces the human-centric mechanical system of flight trackers making judgment calls with an automated AI-based system. The AI model processes multiple input parameters (incoming flight delay, outgoing flight schedule, passenger itinerary, alternative routes) to automatically determine optimal hold decisions, eliminating the need for human intervention while maintaining high connection reliability.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes the approach from qualitative human judgment to quantitative parameter-based decision making. By transforming operational decisions into calculations based on measurable parameters (time windows, delay durations, connection buffers), the system achieves both automation and optimality in hold decisions.
2Ease of operation
If a rule-based approach with predefined criteria is used to decide flight holds, then operational simplicity is maintained, but the solution is not globally optimal and may not provide the best passenger value
Solution Approach 1:
The system transitions from static predefined rules to dynamic AI-based decision making. The AI model adapts its decisions based on real-time input data including actual flight delays, passenger-specific itineraries, and current operational conditions, enabling optimal hold decisions that respond to dynamic situations rather than following fixed rules.
Solution Approach 2:
The AI system incorporates feedback loops that continuously monitor flight status, passenger connections, and operational outcomes. This feedback enables the system to learn from actual performance and refine its decisions, achieving global optimality while maintaining operational simplicity through automated decision-making.
3Ease of operation
If flights are held to prevent passenger misconnects, then passenger comfort is improved, but operational efficiency deteriorates due to network disruption and additional costs
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies local quality by making passenger-specific hold decisions based on individual connection requirements rather than applying uniform holds to all flights. The AI model evaluates each passenger's itinerary, connection time, and alternative options to determine personalized hold decisions, optimizing comfort while minimizing operational impact.
Solution Approach 2:
The system uses partial action by applying holds only when and where necessary based on AI analysis, rather than implementing comprehensive holds. The model calculates the minimum required hold duration to prevent misconnects while avoiding excessive holds that would disrupt operational efficiency, achieving the right balance between comfort and productivity.
Data Source
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AI summary
This disclosure relates to a system and method for computing and recommending optimal hold time for every flight of an airline to minimize passenger misconnects in airline operations. The method recommends an optimal hold time for a flight based on passenger and airline disutility. Passenger disutility is computed based on the delay to destination of some or all of the passengers, availability of alternate routes for the connecting passengers, and a passenger specific connection time for connecting passengers. Airline disutility is computed based on the arrival delay of the outbound flight and subsequent flights of the same physical aircraft, till the delay no-longer propagates and an operating cost to the airline such as rebooking cost, ground cost etc. Finally, the method introduces a business factor, bringing in airline specific flexibility, to combine passenger and airline disutility to form total disutility and recommends the optimal hold based on least value.