Annotating Data Models for Predictive Systems
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Solution Overview
Problem
Predictive data modeling for cloud applications faces inaccuracies due to periodic anomalies such as seasonal spikes and fluctuations, which are difficult to predict and incorporate into historical usage models, leading to skewed forecasts and resource allocation challenges.
Innovation Solution
A system and method that detect, annotate, and selectively include or exclude anomalous events in predictive modeling, using machine learning to recognize and isolate these events, allowing for dynamic resource allocation and optimal resource provisioning based on historical data and expected patterns.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If historical data is used for predictive modeling, then the model can learn usage patterns, but periodic anomalies skew the results and reduce accuracy
Solution Approach 1:
The patent extracts and separates anomalous data points from the historical dataset before performing predictive modeling. The system identifies outliers using statistical methods (e.g., IQR, z-score) and removes them from the training data, allowing the model to learn only from normal usage patterns. This resolves the contradiction by eliminating the harmful anomaly skew while preserving the beneficial historical pattern learning.
Solution Approach 2:
The system implements a feedback mechanism where predicted values are compared against actual values, and anomalies in the residuals are identified and fed back into the modeling process. This iterative approach allows the system to continuously refine its understanding of normal patterns by learning from prediction errors, thereby improving predictive accuracy while accounting for anomalies.
2Quantity of substance
If all historical data is included in modeling, then more data is available for training, but anomalous events distort the usage patterns and lead to inaccurate forecasts
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies data filtering techniques to extract and remove anomalous observations from the historical dataset. Methods such as statistical outlier detection, moving average filtering, and seasonal decomposition are used to identify and exclude distorted data points. This allows the model to utilize the full volume of historical data while eliminating the portions that would skew the forecasts.
Solution Approach 2:
The system applies different quality standards to different portions of the historical data. Normal data points are included with full weight in the training process, while anomalous points are either removed or down-weighted. This local differentiation in data quality treatment allows the model to learn from the abundant normal data while being insensitive to the harmful effects of anomalies.
3Measurement precision
If recurring events are factored into the model, then predictive accuracy improves for those events, but the model becomes more complex and harder to manage
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the historical data into distinct components: normal usage patterns, recurring seasonal patterns, and anomalous events. Each segment is modeled separately using appropriate techniques (e.g., moving averages for normal patterns, harmonic analysis for seasonal patterns). This segmentation allows the model to accurately capture recurring events without requiring a single complex monolithic model, thereby improving predictive accuracy while managing complexity through modular architecture.
Data Source
AI summary
Systems and methods for monitoring hosted computing resource usage wherein software receives usage information of a software application executing on at least one of a plurality of computing resources to determine anomalies in usage and the software accessing external sources to identifies a predicted future anomaly and modifies availability of computing resources for execution of the software application as a way to improve the outcome of data modelling by recognizing repeated anomalous patterns and allowing these to be factored in or out of the predictive modelling.


