Arrival Time Control for Mobile Objects
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing techniques for time-based air traffic flow management, such as those described in Patent Literatures 1 and 2, result in frequent speed adjustments and deteriorated fuel efficiency and comfort due to uncertainties like weather prediction errors, leading to poor practicability.
Innovation Solution
A program that quantifies uncertain predicted values affecting a mobile object's time of arrival, calculates a probability distribution of estimated arrival times, and adjusts control inputs like speed, altitude, or path angle to minimize the impact of uncertainties, thereby reducing the number of speed adjustments and optimizing fuel efficiency and comfort.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If high-frequency speed adjustment is performed to satisfy required time of arrival, then time of arrival accuracy is improved, but fuel consumption increases and comfort deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary quantification of uncertainties (weather prediction errors, aircraft characteristic errors) before flight and calculates probability distributions of estimated time of arrival. This advance preparation allows the system to determine optimal control inputs that account for uncertainties without requiring frequent reactive speed adjustments during flight, thereby reducing fuel consumption while maintaining time of arrival accuracy.
Solution Approach 2:
The system continuously monitors actual measured values during flight and updates the probability distribution of the uncertain predicted value. Based on this feedback, it recalculates the probability distribution of estimated time of arrival and adjusts control inputs only when necessary to keep statistics within thresholds. This selective feedback mechanism reduces unnecessary speed adjustments compared to high-frequency control, lowering fuel consumption while maintaining arrival accuracy.
2Measurement precision
If high-frequency speed adjustment is performed to satisfy required time of arrival, then time of arrival accuracy is improved, but comfort deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary quantification of uncertainties and calculates probability distributions before flight. This advance preparation allows determination of optimal control inputs that account for uncertainties without requiring frequent reactive speed adjustments during flight, thereby reducing the number of accelerations and decelerations that affect passenger comfort while maintaining time of arrival accuracy.
Solution Approach 2:
The system monitors actual measured values and updates probability distributions in real-time, adjusting control inputs only when statistics fall outside predetermined thresholds. This selective adjustment approach minimizes the frequency of speed changes, reducing passenger discomfort from repeated accelerations and decelerations while still ensuring accurate time of arrival.
3Measurement precision
If bang-bang control with minimum and maximum allowable speeds is used, then time of arrival can be controlled, but fuel consumption increases and comfort deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
Instead of using fixed minimum and maximum allowable speeds in bang-bang control, the system dynamically determines optimal control inputs by calculating probability distributions of estimated time of arrival based on quantified uncertainties. This parameter optimization approach selects speed values that minimize fuel consumption while ensuring time of arrival statistics remain within thresholds, avoiding the energy-inefficient switching between extreme speed values.
4Measurement precision
If bang-bang control with minimum and maximum allowable speeds is used, then time of arrival can be controlled, but comfort deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system replaces the discrete speed switching of bang-bang control with continuous optimization of control inputs based on probability distribution calculations. By determining optimal speed values that account for uncertainties and maintain statistics within thresholds, the system avoids abrupt accelerations and decelerations, thereby improving passenger comfort while maintaining precise time of arrival control.
Data Source
AI summary
[Object] To suppress the influence of uncertainties on a time of arrival while reducing the number of speed adjustments or the like to suppress the deterioration of fuel efficiency and comfort.[Solving Means] An information processing apparatus 1 includes: an uncertainty estimation unit 11 that quantifies, using an actual measured value, an uncertain predicted value that affects a time of arrival at a target point of a mobile object, and calculates a probability distribution of the uncertain predicted value; an estimated-time-of-arrival estimation unit 12 that calculates, using the probability distribution of the uncertain predicted value, a probability distribution of an estimated time of arrival at the target point when a current control input is used, the control input being a control input to the mobile object and affecting the time of arrival at the target point; and a time-of-arrival control unit 13 that determines, in the probability distribution of the estimated time of arrival at the target point, whether a first statistic of the estimated time of arrival with respect to a required time of arrival at the target point when the current control input is used falls outside a first threshold, and sets the control input to increase a possibility that a second statistic of the estimated time of arrival with respect to the required time of arrival is within an allowable range in the probability distribution of the estimated time of arrival at the target point if the first statistic falls outside the first threshold.