Aircraft Arrival Time Uncertainty Computation System
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods fail to accurately compute, transmit, and display the uncertainty associated with aircraft time of arrival, leading to uncertainties and errors in navigation and arrival management, which affects fuel efficiency and operational efficiency in air traffic control.
Innovation Solution
A method and system that calculate and display the Estimated Time Uncertainty (ETU) and Current Time Uncertainty (CTU) for aircraft, providing a quantifiable level of certainty for aircrew and air traffic controllers, allowing for more precise fuel-efficient flight profiles and improved air traffic management by determining necessary spacing and metering of aircraft.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If time-based arrival management is implemented to enable earlier landing time assignments and more efficient runway use, then air traffic management efficiency and capacity are improved, but uncertainties and errors in time computation increase due to data and method limitations
Solution Approach 1:
The system continuously computes and updates ETU (Estimated Time Uncertainty) and CTU (Current Time Uncertainty) values, providing feedback to air traffic controllers about the reliability of predicted arrival times. This feedback loop allows controllers to make informed decisions about spacing and sequencing while accounting for computational uncertainties, thereby maintaining high productivity without sacrificing reliability.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transforms the abstract concept of time computation uncertainty into concrete, quantifiable parameters (ETU and CTU values) that can be transmitted and displayed. By changing the parameter representation from qualitative uncertainty to quantitative measurable values, the system enables better air traffic management while explicitly accounting for and managing the uncertainties in time computations.
2Use of energy by moving object
If aircraft determine desired landing time using most fuel optimum flight profile, then economic benefits and fuel efficiency are improved, but navigation performance uncertainty increases
Solution Approach 1:
The ETU and CTU computations act as intermediaries between the fuel-optimal flight profile and the air traffic control system. These uncertainty values mediate the relationship by providing a quantitative measure of navigation performance that allows controllers to accommodate fuel-efficient profiles while maintaining appropriate safety margins and spacing, thus preserving both fuel efficiency and navigation accuracy.
3Reliability
If Required Navigation Performance (RNP) compliance is monitored using Actual Navigation Performance (ANP), then navigation reliability is improved, but system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The uncertainty computation system serves multiple functions: it monitors RNP compliance, provides spacing recommendations to controllers, displays information to pilots, and supports fuel-optimal profile determination. By creating a universal uncertainty measurement framework that performs multiple functions simultaneously, the system improves navigation reliability without proportionally increasing complexity, as the same computational infrastructure supports diverse applications.
Data Source
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AI summary
Methods and a system for vehicle control are provided. The system includes an input device configured to receive a required time of arrival at a way point and a processor communicatively coupled to the input device. The processor is programmed to determine a forward Sate time profile, determine a forward early time profile representing the earliest tune the vehicle could arrive at a point along the track and still arrive at the way point while transiting at a maximum available speed, and determine an estimated time uncertainty (ETU) associated with at least one of the forward late time profile and the forward eariy time profile. The system also includes an output device communicatively coupled to the processor, the output device configured to transmit the determined uncertainty with a respective one of the at least one of the forward late time profile and the forward early time profile to a display.