Assumption-Based Planning System for Scenario Analysis
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing planning systems for enterprise operations are inefficient, error-prone, and lead to suboptimal decisions due to the need for multiple planners to work sequentially on what-if scenarios, resulting in lengthy and manpower-intensive processes.
Innovation Solution
The development of a system that uses assumption-based planning, enabling operations planners to generate and analyze scenarios through graphical user interfaces, model hierarchical relationships of potential operations scenarios, and prepare for future contingencies by creating and managing assumptions, mitigation options, and response plans.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If multiple planners work sequentially on what-if scenarios, then scenario analysis can be performed, but the planning process becomes lengthy and manpower-intensive
Solution Approach 1:
The system enables self-service scenario generation where the planning system automatically creates and evaluates what-if scenarios based on predefined templates and parameters, eliminating the need for multiple planners to manually work through each scenario sequentially. The system serves itself by generating scenarios, analyzing impacts, and producing recommendations autonomously.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent replaces the mechanical manual planning process with an automated computer-based system that uses algorithms to generate scenarios, calculate impacts, and produce recommendations. This substitution of mechanical manual work with automated digital processing directly addresses the productivity-time contradiction by enabling rapid scenario evaluation without human intervention for each step.
2Reliability
If multiple planners work sequentially on what-if scenarios, then comprehensive scenario analysis can be performed, but the process becomes error-prone
Solution Approach 1:
The system incorporates feedback mechanisms where scenario impacts are automatically calculated and fed back into the planning process. The system evaluates assumptions, generates scenarios, analyzes impacts, and produces recommendations that feed back into the planning decision-making process, creating a closed-loop system that reduces errors through systematic verification.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent creates a universal planning system that handles multiple functions within a single integrated platform - scenario generation, impact analysis, assumption management, and recommendation production. This multi-functionality reduces the complexity of coordinating multiple specialized tools and planners, thereby reducing errors while maintaining comprehensive analysis capability.
3Adaptability or versatility
If what-if scenarios are considered only on planner initiative, then planner flexibility is maintained, but important scenarios may be missed
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary action by automatically generating a comprehensive set of what-if scenarios based on predefined templates and parameters before the planning process begins. This preliminary scenario generation ensures that important scenarios are not missed while reducing the planner's workload, as the system prepares the foundation of analysis work in advance.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces an intermediary system that bridges the gap between planner intent and scenario generation. The system acts as a mediator that translates planner requirements into automated scenario creation, ensuring comprehensive scenario coverage while reducing direct planner involvement in the repetitive task of scenario generation.
4Measurement precision
If sequential planning is used, then detailed scenario analysis can be performed, but the process becomes manpower-intensive
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces the mechanical manual analysis process with automated computer-based scenario evaluation that can perform detailed measurements and analyses at scale. This substitution enables deep scenario analysis without requiring proportional increases in planner resources, directly addressing the contradiction between analysis depth and resource requirements.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes the parameters of scenario analysis from manual, qualitative assessment to automated, quantitative calculation. By transforming the nature of analysis through parameterization and algorithmic processing, the system achieves detailed measurement precision while reducing the quantity of human resources required to perform the analysis.
Data Source
AI summary
A system and method are disclosed for performing assumption-based planning. The method includes generating and displaying an assumption creation GUI for creating assumptions, generating and displaying a planning GUI configured for selection of options and parameters, generating and displaying a goal selection GUI configured for a selection of goals for planning, generating and displaying a lever selection GUI configured for a selection of levers for planning, updating the lever selection GUI, generating and displaying an input adjustment GUI configured to display the levers and receive selections to toggle the levers on or off, performing a planning analysis using the selected goals and the selected levers, generating and displaying a planning analysis summary GUI configured to display the selected goals and the selected levers used in performing the planning analysis, and generating and displaying a response plan GUI configured to display a response plan based on the planning analysis.