Auction Dispatch Time Estimation Using Message History Analysis
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Solution Overview
Problem
In network auctions, bidders lack information about the specific time required for product dispatch until they win a bid and contact the seller, making it difficult to factor in dispatch timing during the bidding process.
Innovation Solution
An auction device that relays messages between sellers and bidders, stores message histories, and estimates the expected time for product dispatch by calculating the seller's and bidder's times based on past auctions, providing an expected period from purchase to dispatch.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of information
If bidders wait until winning the bid to learn dispatch time, then they can get accurate seller-specific timing information, but they cannot factor dispatch timing into their bidding decisions in advance
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by calculating and storing estimated dispatch times for each seller based on their historical message exchange patterns before auctions occur. When bidders view auction listings, they can see these pre-calculated time estimates, allowing them to factor dispatch timing into their bidding decisions in advance rather than waiting until after winning a bid.
Solution Approach 2:
The system provides a cushion of information by displaying estimated dispatch times alongside auction listings. This allows bidders to assess whether a seller's typical dispatch time aligns with their needs before committing to a bid, preventing situations where winners later discover unacceptable dispatch delays.
2Loss of information
If the system calculates expected period for every auction, then bidders get comprehensive timing information, but the system complexity increases due to history storage and processing requirements
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary calculations of expected dispatch periods by analyzing historical message exchange data between sellers and bidders. These calculations are done in advance and stored in a database, so when an auction occurs, the system simply retrieves pre-computed values rather than performing complex real-time analysis, thereby reducing operational complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The system introduces an intermediary component (the information generation unit) that sits between the raw message history data and the auction display system. This intermediary pre-processes the historical data to extract meaningful dispatch time patterns, simplifying the overall system architecture by separating data processing from auction management functions.
Data Source
AI summary
Once a product in an auction has been purchased, a message relay (101) relays messages about sale and purchase of the product exchanged between a seller of the product and a bidder who is the winning bidder of the product, between a seller terminal used by the seller and a bidder terminal used by the winning bidder. A history storage (102) stores a history of the relayed messages. An information generator (103) uses the history to (1) estimate a seller's time that is required by the seller, in a period from when a not-yet purchased product is purchased until the product will be dispatched (2) estimates a bidder's time that is required by the bidder in the period from when the not-yet purchased product is purchased until the product will be dispatched and (3) calculates a sum of the seller's time and bidder's time, and employs the calculated sum as the expected period that is required from when the not-yet purchased product is purchased until the product will be dispatched.