Audience Estimation via Iterative Capture-Recapture

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing methods for audience estimation using the capture-recapture procedure are computationally intensive and exceed computer memory and feasible computation time, especially for large sample sizes necessary for accurate estimation.

Innovation Solution

The proposed system includes an audience estimator that samples households, tags respondents, and determines audience population estimates based on recapture probability assumptions, using a more efficient iterative method that reduces computational requirements.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If traditional capture-recapture methods are used with large sample sizes, then estimation accuracy is improved, but computational time and memory requirements exceed feasible limits

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveestimation accuracyVSAvoidcomputational time
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent changes the mathematical parameters and computational approach by using iterative algorithms with convergence criteria rather than traditional direct calculation methods. This allows the system to achieve accurate population estimates through progressive approximation, stopping when sufficient precision is reached without requiring exhaustive computation, thus resolving the contradiction between accuracy and computational time.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The patent applies partial action by using iterative methods that perform computations progressively rather than all at once. The algorithm continues iterating only until convergence criteria are met, performing just enough computational steps to achieve the required accuracy level, thereby avoiding excessive computational time and memory consumption while maintaining estimation precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

2Measurement precision

If traditional capture-recapture methods are used with large sample sizes, then estimation accuracy is improved, but computer memory requirements become unmanageable

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveestimation accuracyVSAvoidmemory consumption
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSQuantity of substance

Solution Approach 1:

The patent transforms the memory-intensive traditional methods into a parameter-based iterative approach that stores only essential convergence criteria and current iteration values rather than maintaining large datasets in memory. This parameter transformation enables accurate estimation while dramatically reducing memory footprint, resolving the contradiction between precision and memory consumption.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The patent extracts the essential computational requirements from the traditional capture-recapture methodology, separating the core estimation function from memory-intensive data storage requirements. By formulating the problem in terms of iterative parameter updates rather than data accumulation, the system achieves accurate population estimation with minimal memory consumption, effectively taking out the memory burden while preserving measurement precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

3Measurement precision

If more samples are collected to improve estimation accuracy, then measurement precision is improved, but computational complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveestimation accuracyVSAvoidcomputational complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies partial action through iterative algorithms that process samples progressively rather than requiring all samples to be processed simultaneously. The computational complexity is managed by performing calculations in incremental steps, stopping when convergence criteria are satisfied, thus achieving accurate estimation without proportionally increasing computational complexity with sample size.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Data Source

PatentUS20250133265A1Methods, systems, articles of manufacture, and apparatus to estimate audience population
Publication Date: 2025.04.24 THE NIELSEN CO (US) LLC
  • US20250133265A1 patent drawing
  • US20250133265A1 patent drawing
  • US20250133265A1 patent drawing

AI summary

Methods, apparatus, systems and articles of manufacture are disclosed to estimate an audience population. An example apparatus includes at least one memory; instructions in the apparatus; and processor circuitry to execute the instructions to: determine whether respective ones of respondents are associated with a characteristic; detect unique instances of the respective ones of the respondents; in response to the respective ones of the respondents being associated with the characteristic, increase a sample capture count by one; in response to detecting the unique instances of the respective ones of the respondents exhibiting the characteristic, increase a unique capture count by one; determine a seed population estimate based on the unique capture count; and determine a population estimate having the characteristic based on the sample capture count, the unique capture count, the seed population estimate, and a number of available samples.