Audience Estimation via Iterative Capture-Recapture
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for audience estimation using the capture-recapture procedure are computationally intensive and exceed computer memory and feasible computation time, especially for large sample sizes necessary for accurate estimation.
Innovation Solution
The proposed system includes an audience estimator that samples households, tags respondents, and determines audience population estimates based on recapture probability assumptions, using a more efficient iterative method that reduces computational requirements.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If traditional capture-recapture methods are used with large sample sizes, then estimation accuracy is improved, but computational time and memory requirements exceed feasible limits
Solution Approach 1:
The patent changes the mathematical parameters and computational approach by using iterative algorithms with convergence criteria rather than traditional direct calculation methods. This allows the system to achieve accurate population estimates through progressive approximation, stopping when sufficient precision is reached without requiring exhaustive computation, thus resolving the contradiction between accuracy and computational time.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies partial action by using iterative methods that perform computations progressively rather than all at once. The algorithm continues iterating only until convergence criteria are met, performing just enough computational steps to achieve the required accuracy level, thereby avoiding excessive computational time and memory consumption while maintaining estimation precision.
2Measurement precision
If traditional capture-recapture methods are used with large sample sizes, then estimation accuracy is improved, but computer memory requirements become unmanageable
Solution Approach 1:
The patent transforms the memory-intensive traditional methods into a parameter-based iterative approach that stores only essential convergence criteria and current iteration values rather than maintaining large datasets in memory. This parameter transformation enables accurate estimation while dramatically reducing memory footprint, resolving the contradiction between precision and memory consumption.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent extracts the essential computational requirements from the traditional capture-recapture methodology, separating the core estimation function from memory-intensive data storage requirements. By formulating the problem in terms of iterative parameter updates rather than data accumulation, the system achieves accurate population estimation with minimal memory consumption, effectively taking out the memory burden while preserving measurement precision.
3Measurement precision
If more samples are collected to improve estimation accuracy, then measurement precision is improved, but computational complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies partial action through iterative algorithms that process samples progressively rather than requiring all samples to be processed simultaneously. The computational complexity is managed by performing calculations in incremental steps, stopping when convergence criteria are satisfied, thus achieving accurate estimation without proportionally increasing computational complexity with sample size.
Data Source
AI summary
Methods, apparatus, systems and articles of manufacture are disclosed to estimate an audience population. An example apparatus includes at least one memory; instructions in the apparatus; and processor circuitry to execute the instructions to: determine whether respective ones of respondents are associated with a characteristic; detect unique instances of the respective ones of the respondents; in response to the respective ones of the respondents being associated with the characteristic, increase a sample capture count by one; in response to detecting the unique instances of the respective ones of the respondents exhibiting the characteristic, increase a unique capture count by one; determine a seed population estimate based on the unique capture count; and determine a population estimate having the characteristic based on the sample capture count, the unique capture count, the seed population estimate, and a number of available samples.


