Audience Population Estimation with Capture-Recapture Count Models
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for audience population estimation using capture-recapture models are computationally intensive and exceed memory and processing time limits, especially for large sample sizes, making them impractical for accurate audience measurement.
Innovation Solution
The implementation of an audience estimator system that utilizes a modified capture-recapture model, employing a population estimator to efficiently determine audience population by reducing the number of stored values and computational resources through iterative methods, such as Equation 15 and Equation 53, which estimate population based on unique and total capture counts without relying on the number of samples.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If traditional capture-recapture models are used for audience population estimation, then accurate population estimates can be obtained, but computational resources and processing time exceed practical limits
Solution Approach 1:
The patent transforms the traditional capture-recapture model by changing the computational parameters from storing and processing complete sample data to storing only capture counts (unique captures, total captures) and sample sizes. This parameter transformation reduces computational complexity while preserving the essential information needed for population estimation, resolving the contradiction between accuracy and computational efficiency
Solution Approach 2:
The invention extracts only the essential statistical parameters (capture counts and sample sizes) from the complete survey data, discarding redundant individual-level information. This extraction approach maintains population estimation accuracy while dramatically reducing memory requirements and processing time, directly addressing the computational resource constraints
2Measurement precision
If large sample sizes are collected for accurate audience measurement, then measurement precision improves, but memory and processing requirements become impractical
Solution Approach 1:
The patent extracts only the essential aggregate statistics (capture counts and sample sizes) from large survey datasets, eliminating the need to store individual respondent records. This allows handling of very large sample sizes while maintaining minimal data storage requirements, resolving the contradiction between measurement precision and data quantity
Solution Approach 2:
Instead of storing complete individual-level data and computing statistics from them, the invention inverts the approach by directly collecting and storing only the essential summary statistics during the sampling process. This inversion enables efficient handling of large samples by accumulating counts rather than storing records
Data Source
AI summary
Methods, apparatus, systems, and articles of manufacture are disclosed to estimate an audience population. An example apparatus includes processor circuitry; characteristic identifier instructions to be executed by the processor circuitry to determine whether respective ones of respondents are associated with a characteristic; recapture probability estimator instructions to be executed by the processor circuitry to select a recapture probability of the respective ones of respondents; and population estimator instructions to be executed by the processor circuitry to in response to the recapture probability satisfying a recapture threshold, determine a population estimate having the characteristics based on a first model; and in response to the recapture probability not satisfying the recapture threshold, determine the population estimate having the characteristics based on a second model, the second model different than the first model.