Autonomous Control Uncertainty Estimation for Novel Image Inputs

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing methods for estimating the uncertainty of decisions made by supervised machine learners, such as deep neural networks and generative adversarial networks, fail to provide reliable confidence measures for novel data points, leading to unreliable decisions, especially when data points are outside the training distribution.

Innovation Solution

A system comprising a decision module and an uncertainty module, where the uncertainty module uses Sliced Wasserstein clustering and adversarial convolutional auto-encoders to model the data distribution and estimate the probability of new data belonging to the training set, allowing the autonomous platform to switch between exploration and exploitation based on reliability thresholds.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Productivity

If deep neural networks are used for mapping input data to decisions, then decision-making capability is improved, but reliability of decisions for novel data points deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvedecision-making capabilityVSAvoidreliability of decisions for novel data
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent introduces an uncertainty module as an intermediary between the deep neural network decision module and the autonomous platform. This uncertainty module uses Sliced Wasserstein clustering to model the training data distribution and provides uncertainty estimates for novel data points. The clustering model acts as a mediator that bridges the gap between the decision-making capability of deep neural networks and the reliability needed for novel data, by identifying whether new data points fall within the learned data distribution before making decisions.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

2Ease of manufacture

If Expectation Maximization algorithm is used to estimate GMM parameters, then parameter estimation is simplified, but convergence to global optimum deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvesimplicity of parameter estimationVSAvoidaccuracy of data distribution modeling
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of manufactureVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The patent changes the approach to parameter estimation by using Sliced Wasserstein distance instead of traditional maximum likelihood estimation with EM algorithm. This parameter change transforms the optimization problem into a different mathematical framework that avoids the local maxima problem inherent in EM algorithm. The Sliced Wasserstein clustering provides more accurate data distribution modeling by using optimal transport theory, which guarantees better convergence properties while maintaining computational feasibility through the slicing technique.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

3Productivity

If current GAN methods are used for data distribution modeling, then synthetic image generation is achieved, but clustering capability deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvesynthetic image generation capabilityVSAvoidclustering capability
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent extracts the clustering capability from the GAN framework and implements it as a separate Sliced Wasserstein clustering module. Instead of relying on the adversarial training process of GANs which is poor at clustering, the invention separates the data distribution modeling function from the synthetic image generation function. The Sliced Wasserstein clustering specifically targets and models the clustering structure of the training data, providing reliable uncertainty estimates, while synthetic images can be generated separately if needed without compromising the clustering accuracy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

Data Source

PatentUS11086299B2System and method for estimating uncertainty of the decisions made by a supervised machine learner
Publication Date: 2021.08.10 HRL LAB
  • US11086299B2 patent drawing
  • US11086299B2 patent drawing
  • US11086299B2 patent drawing

AI summary

Described is a system for controlling autonomous platform. Based on an input image, the system generates a motor control command decision for the autonomous platform. A probability of the input image belonging to a set of training images is determined, and a reliability measure for the motor control command decision is generated using the determined probability. An exploratory action is performed when the reliability measure is above a predetermined threshold. Otherwise, an exploitation action corresponding with the motor control command decision is performed when the reliability measure is below a predetermined threshold.