Autonomous Driving Risk Estimation Using Manual Driving Benchmarks

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Solution Overview

Problem

The complexity of autonomous driving situations poses challenges for artificial intelligence software, leading to potential accidents and liability issues, with extensive testing required to ensure adequate capability, which is time-consuming and prone to regression.

Innovation Solution

A method that determines autonomous-driving quantities from sensor data, compares them to manual-driving quantities, and adjusts a risk management model to assess and improve autonomous vehicle safety and insurance premiums, using a database of manual-driving data to simulate and predict accident rates.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Reliability

If extensive testing is conducted to ensure adequate AI software capability, then reliability of autonomous driving is improved, but loss of time and productivity deteriorate

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvereliability of autonomous drivingVSAvoidtesting time
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies preliminary action by pre-collecting and storing manual driving data from multiple drivers in a database before autonomous testing. This pre-prepared data serves as a reference framework that enables faster evaluation of autonomous driving performance, reducing the time needed for extensive real-world testing while maintaining reliability assessment accuracy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent uses copying by creating virtual representations of manual driving behaviors through recorded data. Instead of physically testing every possible scenario with human drivers, the system copies and analyzes manual driving patterns from the database to evaluate and compare autonomous driving performance, significantly reducing testing time while preserving reliability assessment.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #26Copying

2Reliability

If extensive testing is conducted to ensure adequate AI software capability, then reliability of autonomous driving is improved, but productivity deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvereliability of autonomous drivingVSAvoidsoftware development efficiency
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements feedback by systematically comparing autonomous driving quantities against manual driving quantities from the database. This comparison provides continuous feedback on AI software performance across multiple dimensions, enabling targeted improvements and reducing the need for exhaustive testing cycles, thereby improving software development productivity while maintaining reliability.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

Solution Approach 2:

The patent applies preliminary action by pre-collecting and storing manual driving data from multiple drivers in a database before autonomous testing. This pre-prepared data serves as a reference framework that enables faster evaluation of autonomous driving performance, reducing the time needed for extensive real-world testing while maintaining reliability assessment accuracy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

3Reliability

If AI software is enhanced to handle complex driving situations, then reliability is improved, but device complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvecapability to handle driving situationsVSAvoidcomplexity of AI software
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies segmentation by dividing the evaluation of autonomous driving into distinct quantitative dimensions (e.g., acceleration patterns, braking behavior, steering responses). This segmented approach allows the complex AI software to be assessed and improved in manageable components, reducing overall system complexity while enhancing reliability through targeted capability development.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Data Source

PatentUS12454272B2Method for estimating an accident risk of an autonomous vehicle
Publication Date: 2025.10.28 ROSENBAUM WALTER STEVEN
  • US12454272B2 patent drawing
  • US12454272B2 patent drawing

AI summary

The present invention relates to a method for estimating an accident risk of an autonomous driving unit. The method produces helpful results with less autonomous driving cycles. An autonomous-driving quantity, quantifying an autonomous-driving quality of the driving of the driving unit, is determined from driving values that have been determined from monitoring at least one driving parameter of the driving unit during autonomous driving. The autonomous-driving quantity is associated with a plurality of manual-driving quantities that have been determined from the same driving parameter during manual driving periods of different driving units. An autonomous-driving accident rate value is determined from accident rate values associated with those manual-driving quantities.