Bayesian Estimation for Individual Infectivity and Susceptibility Measurement
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods fail to accurately measure and infer individual-level infectivity and susceptibility to contagions for large numbers of entities, often focusing on population-scale dynamics and neglecting heterogeneous individual parameters, which limits precise control and optimization of contagion processes.
Innovation Solution
A Bayesian estimation method that integrates infectivity, susceptibility, and environmental factors to quantify individual-level contagion dynamics, using a contact relation matrix and sequence of infection occurrences to iteratively learn and estimate latent traits, accounting for both observable and unobservable factors.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Quantity of substance
If population-scale epidemic models are used to measure contagion, then the measurement covers large groups, but individual-level heterogeneity and precision are lost
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the population-level measurement into individual-level measurements by introducing person-specific parameters (infectivity α_i, susceptibility β_j) rather than using aggregate parameters. This allows the model to capture heterogeneous individual traits while still analyzing contagion dynamics across the entire population, resolving the contradiction between measuring large groups and maintaining individual precision.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies local quality by assigning different infectivity and susceptibility parameters to different individuals based on their observed infection patterns and contact histories. Each individual receives customized parameter estimates rather than a uniform population average, enabling precise individual-level characterization while maintaining population-wide applicability.
2Measurement precision
If self-report questionnaires are used to measure individual infectivity, then individual-level data is obtained, but measurement cost increases with the number of surveyed people
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements self-service by having the system automatically infer individual infectivity and susceptibility parameters from observed infection data and contact patterns without requiring active participation or self-reporting from individuals. The algorithm processes anonymized infection records and contact histories to derive personal parameters, eliminating the need for costly questionnaires while maintaining individual-level precision.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent replaces the mechanical system of human-administered questionnaires with an automated computational system that infers individual parameters from digital infection data. This substitution eliminates the linear cost increase associated with surveying more people, as the algorithm processes data at constant computational cost regardless of population size.
3Ease of operation
If degree centrality measures are used to assess individual connectivity, then network structure is captured, but virulence and actual infection impact are not measured
Solution Approach 1:
The patent incorporates feedback by using observed infection outcomes and contact patterns to continuously refine individual infectivity and susceptibility parameter estimates. The algorithm processes actual infection data and adjusts parameters based on realized transmission patterns, transforming static network structure measures into dynamic, outcome-based individual capability assessments that capture both connectivity and virulence.
Data Source
AI summary
Measurements of individual-level infectivity, susceptibility and baseline infection risk to biological or social contagion and sensitivity to environmental factors are made for large number of entities from their contact relation, sequential infection occurrences and environmental factors, using computer implemented Markov Chain Monte Carlo and likelihood maximization for Bayesian estimations of an integrated latent trait response model. The method is useful for precise and efficient contagion control and prevention.