Bayesian Interest Prediction for Content Selection

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing systems lack the ability to effectively predict viewer interest levels for combinations of publications and content items, leading to suboptimal content delivery and lower view-through and click-through rates.

Innovation Solution

A method and system implemented by a server computing device that determines interest levels for publication-content item combinations by analyzing dependencies on keywords and publication providers, generating proposed combinations with predicted interest levels using Bayesian networks and confidence calculations.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Device complexity

If content items are selected based on simple keyword matching, then the system complexity is low, but the viewer interest level and engagement are insufficient

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvesystem complexityVSAvoidviewer interest level
Core Design Contradiction:
Device complexityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent changes the selection parameters from simple keyword matching to a multi-factor scoring system that includes keyword relevance, publication provider quality, historical performance metrics (VTR, CTR), and contextual factors. This parameter transformation resolves the contradiction by enabling more accurate interest level prediction while maintaining computational feasibility through structured weighting and normalization.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces the mechanical keyword-matching system with a probabilistic modeling approach using Bayesian networks. This substitution allows the system to handle uncertainty and dependencies between multiple factors, improving reliability in predicting viewer interest while managing complexity through probabilistic inference rather than exhaustive rule-based processing.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

2Measurement precision

If comprehensive analysis of multiple dependencies is performed to predict interest levels, then the prediction accuracy improves, but the computational complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction accuracyVSAvoidcomputational complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent segments the complex prediction problem into independent modular components: keyword relevance scoring, provider quality assessment, historical performance analysis, and contextual factor evaluation. Each module processes specific dependencies separately, then combines results through weighted aggregation. This segmentation enables comprehensive analysis while managing computational complexity through divide-and-conquer strategy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent performs preliminary processing of data including pre-computation of keyword frequencies, provider performance metrics, and normalization of historical data. By preparing and structuring data in advance, the system reduces the computational burden during actual prediction operations, enabling high accuracy without excessive real-time complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

3Productivity

If content items are displayed without prediction analysis, then the system operation is simple and fast, but the view-through rate and click-through rate are lower

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvecontent delivery speedVSAvoidview-through rate
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements partial prediction analysis by focusing computational resources on the most influential factors for each specific context. Rather than performing exhaustive analysis of all possible dependencies, the system identifies and processes key determinants of viewer interest (such as keyword-match quality and provider reputation) while simplifying or skipping less critical computations, thus maintaining fast operation while improving engagement metrics.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Data Source

PatentUS9319486B2Predicting interest levels associated with publication and content item combinations
Publication Date: 2016.04.19 GOOGLE LLC
  • US9319486B2 patent drawing
  • US9319486B2 patent drawing
  • US9319486B2 patent drawing

AI summary

A method of predicting interest levels associated with publication and content item combinations is described. Additionally, a server computing device for predicting interest levels associated with publication and content item combinations is described. Further, a computer-readable storage device having processor-executable instructions embodied thereon is described. The processor-executable instructions are for predicting interest levels associated with publication and content item combinations.