Bayesian Network Failure Diagnosis Information-for-Cost Sequencing

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Solution Overview

Problem

In complex systems, diagnosing failures using probabilistic Bayesian Networks can be time-consuming and costly due to inefficient symptom inspection sequences, often requiring invasive modifications and posing physical risks, which hampers effective failure diagnosis.

Innovation Solution

A method that computes and displays symptoms based on their 'information-for-cost' values, prioritizing inspections that offer the greatest information gain relative to the cost of observation and repair, using a graphical or numerical representation to guide the diagnostic process and automate symptom inspection sequencing.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If symptom inspections are performed to obtain evidence for Bayesian inference, then diagnostic accuracy is improved, but time consumption and cost increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvediagnostic accuracyVSAvoidtime consumption
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The system pre-computes and stores the information-for-cost values for all possible symptoms before actual diagnosis occurs. This preliminary preparation allows the diagnostic process to quickly retrieve and use pre-analyzed data, avoiding time-consuming calculations during actual symptom inspection and evidence gathering.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The system calculates information-for-cost values that provide feedback on the expected value of each potential symptom inspection. This feedback mechanism guides the diagnostic process by indicating which symptoms to inspect next based on the ratio of information gain to inspection cost, enabling intelligent sequencing of inspections rather than random or exhaustive approaches.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

2Measurement precision

If comprehensive symptom inspections are performed to eliminate possible failures, then diagnostic accuracy is improved, but cost and physical risk increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvediagnostic accuracyVSAvoidphysical risk
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSObject-affected harmful factors

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs only the necessary subset of symptom inspections required to achieve adequate diagnostic accuracy, rather than inspecting all possible symptoms. By calculating information-for-cost values, the system identifies the minimum set of inspections needed to confidently eliminate or confirm failure modes, avoiding unnecessary invasive procedures and associated physical risks.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Solution Approach 2:

The system changes the parameter of inspection selection from exhaustive to optimized by introducing the information-for-cost metric. This parameter transformation allows the system to dynamically determine which symptoms warrant inspection based on their expected information value relative to inspection cost, thereby reducing unnecessary invasive inspections and associated physical risks.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

3Ease of operation

If symptom inspections are performed in arbitrary order, then diagnostic process is simple, but diagnostic efficiency deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprocess simplicityVSAvoiddiagnostic efficiency
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of operationVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The system implements a dynamic inspection sequencing mechanism where the information-for-cost values are recalculated after each symptom inspection. This dynamic updating allows the inspection sequence to adapt based on newly acquired evidence, automatically prioritizing the most valuable next inspections while maintaining operational simplicity through automated guidance.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #15Dynamics

Solution Approach 2:

The system provides feedback in the form of updated information-for-cost values that guide the next inspection decision. This feedback loop maintains ease of operation by presenting clear, data-driven recommendations for the next step while dramatically improving diagnostic efficiency by preventing inefficient or redundant inspection sequences.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

Data Source

PatentEP2266033B1Assisting failure diagnosis in a system using bayesian network
Publication Date: 2019.10.30 BAE SYSTEMS PLC
  • EP2266033B1 patent drawingFigure 1~2
  • EP2266033B1 patent drawingFigure 3
  • EP2266033B1 patent drawingFigure 4

AI summary

A method of assisting failure diagnosis in a system includes obtaining (302) data including a probabilistic Bayesian Network describing a set of failures (F1, F2), a set of symptoms (S1, S2, S3) and probabilities of at least some of the symptoms being associated with at least some of the failures in a system. A cost value (CS1) representing a cost associated with learning of a presence or absence of the symptom (S1) is obtained for at least some of the symptoms, as well as a plurality of information values (IS1-F1, IS1-F2), e.g. values representing measures of information gained by learning of the presence or absence of the symptom in relation to a respective plurality of the failures, associated with the symptom. The method then computes (308) an information-for-cost value for the symptom based on the cost value and the plurality of information values.