Real-Time Betting Odds Transformation via Preliminary Probability
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current betting systems face challenges in perfecting odds-making during events, particularly for short-time interval races, and managing risks associated with large payouts, while also needing to operate across multiple jurisdictions with diverse hold value requirements, and providing real-time betting options for users.
Innovation Solution
A betting system that determines natural probability values using statistical methods and transforms them into commercial probabilities using a selected transformation function, allowing for real-time betting and risk management, with the ability to adapt to different jurisdictions' hold value requirements, and includes a risk analysis module to maintain a desirable hold value range.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If real-time odds-making is implemented for short-time interval races, then user betting engagement and immediacy are improved, but system complexity and computational requirements increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary calculations of natural probabilities based on historical data and statistical models before the event occurs. These pre-calculated probabilities are then quickly adjusted in real-time based on betting patterns, rather than calculating everything from scratch during the event.
Solution Approach 2:
A transformation function acts as an intermediary between natural probabilities (based on historical data) and commercial probabilities (used for betting odds). This function simplifies the complex relationship between various factors by providing a standardized conversion mechanism that accounts for hold value requirements and jurisdictional regulations.
2Reliability
If commercial transformation functions are applied to manage hold values, then financial risk management is improved, but calculation time and processing overhead increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system pre-determines appropriate hold value ranges for different jurisdictions and event types. These pre-established parameters are stored and automatically applied during real-time operations, eliminating the need for complex calculations during the betting event itself.
Solution Approach 2:
The transformation function uses adjustable parameters that can be configured based on jurisdictional requirements and risk tolerance. By changing these parameters rather than redesigning the entire calculation system, the platform can adapt to different regulatory environments quickly without significant processing overhead.
3Adaptability or versatility
If the system adapts to diverse jurisdictional hold value requirements, then market versatility is improved, but system configuration and maintenance complexity increase
Solution Approach 1:
The platform uses a universal transformation function framework that can handle multiple jurisdictions and event types through configurable parameters rather than separate systems. This single framework serves multiple functions across different markets, reducing overall system complexity despite the diversity of requirements.
Solution Approach 2:
The system dynamically adjusts transformation function parameters based on the selected jurisdiction and event type, rather than requiring static configuration for each market. This dynamic adaptation allows the same core system to serve multiple jurisdictions by changing parameters in real-time based on operational context.
Data Source
AI summary
A system for enabling betting during the course of an event such as an automotive or horse race. The system includes a physical arena having a track and devices that move in a pattern around the track, a cinematic display corresponding to the physical arena for displaying events and for displaying odds during the course of a particular event, a computer in operative communication with the physical arena and the cinematic display for generating basic outcome probabilities of event outcomes for the set of events. The computer initially, and during the course of an event, determines a win bet probability for a particular event, transforms the win bet probability based on a transformation function to enable real-time betting during the course of the particular event.