Bid Target Performance Prediction Using Context Adjustment Factors
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing auction-based content delivery systems face challenges in accurately predicting bid target performance due to the need for multiple dedicated models for various combinations of bid targets and context factors, leading to sparse historical observations and unstable predictions.
Innovation Solution
A multi-staged modeling approach is employed, where baseline prediction models predict performance without context factors, and presentation context factor models provide adjustment factors to incorporate context, reducing the need for dedicated models for each combination and stabilizing predictions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If a dedicated model is used to predict performance of a bid target with respect to a particular set of context factors, then prediction accuracy for that specific bid target and context combination is improved, but the number of models required increases and historical observations become sparse
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies universality by creating a single prediction model that can handle multiple bid targets and context factor combinations. Instead of building dedicated models for each bid target-context factor pair, one model is trained to predict performance across all combinations, making the model universal and multi-functional. This reduces the number of models from potentially hundreds to just one, while still maintaining the ability to provide accurate predictions for any specific bid target and context combination.
2Reliability
If a dedicated model is used for each bid target and context factor combination, then specific prediction reliability is improved, but the number of historical observations available for training decreases due to sparsity
Solution Approach 1:
The patent merges the training data from all bid targets and context factor combinations into a single unified dataset for training one prediction model. Instead of having separate small datasets for each bid target-context combination (which leads to sparsity), all historical observations are combined and used together. This pooling of data significantly increases the number of historical observations available for training, improving the reliability of predictions even though the model must handle multiple different scenarios.
3Measurement precision
If multiple dedicated models are maintained for different bid targets and context factors, then prediction accuracy for each combination is improved, but computational resources and processing requirements increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent eliminates the need to maintain multiple dedicated models by implementing a single universal prediction model that can predict performance for any bid target and context factor combination. This single model performs the work that would otherwise require many separate models, significantly reducing computational resources and processing requirements. The model achieves this by being trained on diverse data covering all possible combinations, enabling it to generalize across different scenarios without requiring separate computational infrastructure for each.
Data Source
AI summary
In various implementations, analytics data is received that indicates performance of bid targets for historical bids made in one or more content delivery auctions. Baseline prediction models are maintained for the bid targets. The baseline prediction models use the analytics data to predict performance of the bid targets in one or more future instances of at least one content delivery auction. A presentation context factor model is maintained that provides an adjustment factor that quantifies a contribution of a subset of a plurality of presentation context factors associated with the bid targets to performance of the bid targets based on predicted values from the baseline prediction models. A contextual predicted value is computed using the adjustment factor for the subset of the plurality of presentation context factors. A performance prediction is transmitted to a user device and is based on at least the contextual predicted value.


