Carrier Detection Probability Maps for Uncertain Terrain Risk Zones
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for determining detection risk zones by enemy detection systems are inaccurate due to location uncertainties and do not account for terrain masking, leading to erroneous risk assessments.
Innovation Solution
A method and system for generating a probability map of detection risk zones by integrating location inaccuracies and terrain intervisibility, using digital terrain models and probability calculations to determine the likelihood of detection by enemy systems.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Ease of manufacture
If a priori detection risk zones are defined based on assumed positions of detection systems, then the method is simple to implement, but the accuracy of risk zone definition deteriorates due to location uncertainties
Solution Approach 1:
The patent transforms the detection risk assessment from a binary approach (detected/not detected) to a probabilistic approach by introducing probability of presence as a continuous parameter. This allows the system to account for location uncertainties by varying the probability parameter across different spatial locations, thereby improving accuracy while maintaining computational feasibility through grid-based probability integration.
2Device complexity
If detection probability is defined in a binary way with value 0 or 1, then the calculation is simple, but the realism of risk zone representation deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces dynamic probability values that vary continuously across the geographical area, replacing static binary detection probability. The probability of presence is integrated over disks of radius equal to maximum detection range, creating dynamic risk zones that adapt to the uncertain positions of detection systems. This dynamic approach significantly improves realism while the grid-based computation maintains manageable complexity.
3Adaptability or versatility
If the positions of mobile detection systems are not known with certainty, then the detection systems maintain mobility, but the accuracy of risk assessment deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces probability of presence as an intermediary parameter that mediates between the uncertain positions of mobile detection systems and the risk assessment. Instead of requiring precise position information, the system uses probability distributions to represent positional uncertainty, integrating these probabilities over detection ranges to produce accurate risk assessments that account for system mobility and location uncertainties.
4Device complexity
If terrain masking effects are not considered, then the computation is simpler, but the accuracy of detection probability assessment deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary computation of intervisibility information between the carrier and potential detection system positions, storing this terrain masking data in advance. By pre-calculating which positions are mutually visible given the digital terrain model, the system eliminates the need for complex real-time ray-tracing during risk assessment, thereby maintaining computational efficiency while accurately accounting for terrain masking effects on detection probability.
Data Source
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AI summary
A computer-implemented method for generating a probability map, for a carrier, of being detected by at least one detection system having a predefined maximum detection range ρ, the method comprising the steps of: Determining (101) a probability of the presence of at least one detection system on the basis of its position, For each point M of a given geographical region, integrating the probability of presence over a disc centred on M and having a radius equal to the maximum range ρ. Generating (102), at each point M, a probability of being detected by at least one detection system, equal to the result of the previous integration.