Causal Structural Model Architecture for Explainable Prediction
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing computational models are either too complex to comprehend or too restrictive, often leading to overfitting in real-world applications due to spurious correlations in training data, resulting in inaccurate and unreliable predictions.
Innovation Solution
A method of generating a structural model architecture using a causality map that includes variables, relations, and constraints to create a transparent, flexible, and specified model that can predict output variables, utilizing neural networks, causal Bayesian networks, or decision trees, and optimizing the model with training data to prevent overfitting.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If densely connected deep neural networks are used to learn intricate patterns, then prediction accuracy is improved, but model transparency and comprehensibility deteriorate
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the model architecture into distinct components: a structured representation layer that maintains interpretability and a prediction layer that captures complex patterns. This segmentation allows different parts of the system to specialize in transparency versus accuracy, resolving the contradiction between these two requirements.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces an intermediary structured representation that acts as a bridge between interpretable features and complex predictions. This intermediary maintains the causal structure and variable relationships while enabling the model to learn intricate patterns, thus preserving transparency while improving accuracy.
2Device complexity
If simple transparent models like linear regression are used, then model comprehensibility is improved, but predictive performance deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the modeling task into a structured representation component that provides transparency and a prediction component that delivers performance. This allows the system to combine the strengths of simple transparent models with the capabilities of complex predictive models.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent creates a composite model architecture that combines interpretable structured representations with powerful predictive capabilities. This composite structure integrates the benefits of both simple transparent models and complex high-performance models, achieving both comprehensibility and predictive accuracy.
3Productivity
If models are trained on real-world data with spurious correlations, then training speed is improved, but model reliability deteriorates due to overfitting
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary anti-action by pre-defining the structured causal relationships and constraints before training on real-world data. This pre-structure prevents the model from learning spurious correlations during training, countering the harmful effect of overfitting before it can occur while still allowing efficient training.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent incorporates feedback mechanisms through structured constraints that guide the learning process. The model receives feedback from the structured representation about which patterns are causally valid, preventing it from overfitting to spurious correlations in the training data while maintaining training efficiency.
Data Source
AI summary
A method of generating a structural model architecture, comprising receiving an input causality map, including: a plurality of variables, one or more links providing an indication of influence between pairs of variables, wherein at least one link provides an indication of influence between an input variable and at least one other variable; and one or more constraints associated with one or more of the variables and/or links, and generating an architecture for a structural model based on the input causality map, the structural model configured to predict a value of an output variable based on a value of at least one other variable in the plurality of variables.


