Channel Value Prediction Using Installation Parameters
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing technologies rely on purchase information to determine user value and channel effectiveness for online games and services, which is unreliable for new users and requires waiting for purchase data, leading to inaccurate valuations and delayed revenue generation.
Innovation Solution
A system that determines user value and channel effectiveness by analyzing user parameters such as demographic, device, location, and gameplay metrics at the time of client application installation, without relying on purchase data, and recommends subsequent marketing expenditures based on predicted economic values.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If purchase information is used to determine user value and channel effectiveness, then measurement accuracy is improved for existing users, but reliability deteriorates for new users and time delay increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by collecting and analyzing user parameters (device specifications, network environment, installation source) at the time of client application installation, before any purchase behavior occurs. This allows the economic value prediction model to generate initial user value assessments and channel effectiveness metrics proactively, eliminating the need to wait for purchase data while maintaining measurement accuracy through multi-parameter analysis.
2Measurement precision
If purchase information is used to determine channel effectiveness, then measurement precision is improved, but loss of time increases due to waiting for purchase data
Solution Approach 1:
The system executes preliminary analysis of user parameters immediately upon client application installation, generating economic value predictions and channel effectiveness metrics before any purchase transactions occur. This proactive approach eliminates the time delay inherent in traditional methods that wait for purchase data, enabling real-time marketing optimization and immediate revenue generation decisions.
Solution Approach 2:
The system introduces an intermediary economic value prediction model that mediates between user parameters and channel effectiveness measurement. Instead of directly relying on purchase information, the model uses user parameters (device specs, network environment, installation source) as intermediaries to infer user value and channel effectiveness, thereby eliminating the time delay while maintaining measurement precision through the predictive modeling process.
3Measurement precision
If purchase information is required for user valuation, then measurement accuracy is improved, but productivity deteriorates due to delayed revenue generation
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary economic value prediction by analyzing user parameters at installation time, enabling immediate user valuation without waiting for purchase behavior. This allows the business to identify high-value users proactively and optimize marketing expenditures in real-time, significantly accelerating revenue generation while maintaining accurate user value measurement through the prediction model.
Data Source
AI summary
A system configured to determine the value of channels responsive to users requesting installation of a client application through the channels. The client application may provide access to an online game. A given channel may be characterized by a promotional information item, a platform through which the promotional information item is presented to potential users, and/or other information. Predicted economic values for the users that requested installation of the client application through one or more channels may be determined based parameter values for the users. Effectiveness metrics for the channels may be determined based on the predicted economic values of the users. Subsequent consideration expenditures for one or more of the channels may be recommended and/or executed based on a comparison effectiveness metrics determined.