Chaotic Prediction Timing Calculation Device
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Solution Overview
Problem
In prediction models for future events exhibiting chaotic behavior, it is challenging to determine the timing at which small differences in initial values lead to rapid deviations in prediction values, making it difficult to establish the temporal validity of prediction models.
Innovation Solution
A timing calculation device is employed, which inputs two initial values, calculates corresponding prediction values, computes the deviation between them, and determines the timing when this deviation exceeds or equals a predetermined threshold, thereby identifying when prediction values start to deviate significantly.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If prediction models are used for future events with chaotic behavior, then prediction values can be obtained, but small differences in initial values cause rapid deviations in prediction values over time
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by calculating deviation values between multiple prediction values before they become significantly different. The timing calculation unit determines in advance when the deviation between prediction values will exceed a threshold, allowing users to know ahead of time when predictions will diverge and stop using them.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent implements feedback by continuously monitoring the deviation between prediction values generated from different initial values. The deviation value calculation unit computes the difference between prediction values, and the timing calculation unit uses this feedback to identify when the deviation exceeds the threshold, creating a closed-loop system for tracking prediction reliability.
2Measurement precision
If multiple prediction values are calculated with different initial values, then prediction uncertainty can be clarified, but the complexity of calculation increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies the extraction principle by isolating the deviation calculation as a separate, focused operation. Instead of analyzing all aspects of prediction uncertainty simultaneously, the system extracts and calculates only the deviation between prediction values from different initial values, simplifying the overall complexity while maintaining measurement precision.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent uses parameter changes by introducing a deviation threshold parameter that transforms the continuous deviation measurement into a discrete timing signal. When the deviation between prediction values exceeds this threshold, the system identifies a specific timing point, converting complex continuous data into actionable temporal information.
3Reliability
If the deviation between prediction values is monitored continuously, then the timing of deviation can be identified, but computational resources are consumed
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies partial action by monitoring only the deviation between prediction values rather than analyzing all possible parameters and conditions. The system focuses computational resources on calculating the deviation value and comparing it against the threshold, rather than performing comprehensive analysis of all prediction characteristics, thus reducing unnecessary computational expenditure.
Data Source
AI summary
An object of the present disclosure is to clarify a timing at which at least two prediction values as comparison targets start to increase to be more than a predetermined value or deviate to be equal to or more than a predetermined value when a future event that exhibits chaotic behavior or is likely to exhibit the chaotic behavior is predicted.Therefore, the present disclosure provides a timing calculation device including an input unit that inputs a first initial value and a second initial value necessary for predicting a future event that exhibits chaotic behavior or is likely to exhibit the chaotic behavior, a prediction value calculation unit that calculates a first prediction value of the event with respect to the first initial value and calculates a second prediction value of the event with respect to the second initial value, a deviation value calculation unit that calculates a deviation value from a difference between the first prediction value and the second prediction value, a timing calculation unit that calculates a timing at which the deviation value becomes more than a deviation threshold value or a predetermined timing at which the deviation value becomes equal to or more than the deviation threshold value, and an output unit that outputs information regarding the predetermined timing.