Multi-layered Cloud Capacity Forecasting via Hybrid Deep Learning

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Solution Overview

Problem

Managing and controlling computer networks and data centers is challenging due to the complexity of analyzing large datasets with millions of data points, where human-driven analysis is inefficient and often outdated, and existing forecasting methods struggle with noise and temporary trends, leading to inaccurate capacity planning.

Innovation Solution

A multi-tiered forecasting system that includes a pre-processing component for data standardization, a forecast component with advanced models like hybrid deep learning, and a post-processing component for perturbation adjustments, generating a Time-To-Live (TTL) metric to visualize historical and future resource usage, facilitating dynamic capacity planning and resource allocation in cloud service centers.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If human-driven analysis is used to analyze metrics with millions of data points, then contextual understanding can be achieved, but the analysis is inefficient and becomes outdated quickly

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveanalysis accuracyVSAvoidanalysis speed
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent replaces human-driven mechanical analysis with automated machine-driven analysis systems that can process millions of data points rapidly. The system uses automated metric collection, analysis, and reporting mechanisms to eliminate the bottleneck of manual analysis while maintaining contextual understanding through structured data processing pipelines.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Solution Approach 2:

The system enables self-service automated analysis where the infrastructure automatically collects, processes, and analyzes its own metrics without human intervention. The automated reporting system generates insights and alerts based on predefined thresholds and patterns, allowing the system to serve its own analytical needs continuously and efficiently.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

2Ease of operation

If existing forecasting methods are used, then simplicity is maintained, but accuracy deteriorates due to noise and temporary trends

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveforecasting simplicityVSAvoidforecasting accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of operationVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The patent transforms forecasting accuracy by changing key parameters: implementing multi-metric analysis instead of single-metric forecasting, using automated anomaly detection to filter noise, and applying machine learning models that adapt to temporary trends. These parameter changes enhance accuracy while the automated nature maintains operational simplicity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The system creates a composite forecasting approach by combining multiple metrics, data sources, and analysis methods into a unified forecasting model. This composite approach integrates infrastructure metrics, application performance data, and business metrics to produce more accurate forecasts while maintaining a single streamlined interface for users.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #40Composite materials

3Measurement precision

If manual model selection and tuning is performed, then model accuracy can be optimized, but the process becomes complex and time-consuming

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemodel accuracyVSAvoidmodel selection complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system implements self-service automated model selection and tuning where the forecasting system automatically selects appropriate models and optimizes parameters based on the characteristics of the input data. This eliminates the need for manual model selection while maintaining high accuracy through automated hyperparameter optimization and model performance evaluation.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

Solution Approach 2:

The patent changes the approach to model selection by transitioning from manual parameter adjustment to automated parameter optimization using machine learning techniques. The system automatically tunes model parameters based on historical data patterns and performance metrics, achieving high accuracy without manual intervention or complex model selection processes.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

4Measurement precision

If data standardization and pre-processing is implemented, then forecasting performance is enhanced, but the processing time increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveforecasting performanceVSAvoidprocessing time
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs preliminary data standardization and pre-processing actions continuously in the background before forecasting is needed. Metrics are collected, normalized, and validated in real-time as they are generated, so that when forecasting is required, the data is already prepared and ready for analysis, eliminating delays.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent implements continuous data pre-processing and standardization operations that run continuously alongside data collection. This ensures that data is always in the correct format and ready for forecasting without requiring batch processing or interrupting the forecasting workflow, maintaining both high performance and efficiency.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #20Continuity of useful action

Data Source

PatentUS20240095093A1Multi-layered data center capacity forecasting system
Publication Date: 2024.03.21 MICROSOFT TECHNOLOGY LICENSING LLC
  • US20240095093A1 patent drawing
  • US20240095093A1 patent drawing
  • US20240095093A1 patent drawing

AI summary

A system and method for configuring a cloud service center is described. The system accesses usage data of resources of the cloud service center. The usage data is standardized by applying a pre-processing operation to the usage data. The system generates a plurality of forecast models based on the standardized usage data. The forecast models predict a demand of the resources of the cloud service center. The system selects a demand forecast model from the forecast models based on a ranking of the forecast models. The system applies a postprocessing operation to the demand forecast that is generated based on the selected demand forecast model. The system configures the cloud service center based on the post-processed demand forecast.